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tv   Fareed Zakaria GPS  CNN  July 28, 2019 7:00am-8:00am PDT

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i do think bernie sanders won here in the primary so you can't say that is not a strategy. it's the one thing -- >> very good governor, you were a good governor. you didn't govern from the left. >> thank you for spending your sunday morning with us. watch the cnn democratic debates tuesday, wednesday, 8 px eastern right here in detroit. "fareed zakaria gps" starts right now. >> this is gps, the global public square. welcome to all of you in the us the and around the world. i'm fareed zakaria. today on the show, a new day dawns in britain as mrs. may exits and mr. johnson takes center stage. former foreign secretary promises to take britain out of the european union in fewer than 100 days. i have a great panel to talk about boris johnson and what promises to be a wild ride ahead
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for britain, europe and the world. then. >> if i wanted to win that war, afghanistan would be wiped off the face of the earth. >> that comment sent shock waves through afghanistan. i'll talk to the afghan ambassador to the united states about what her government has called trump's unacceptable remark. also, from the opium wars of the 1800s to the roiling protests that have been rocking hong kong for weeks, how did we get here? what makes hong kong such a flash point? i'll explain. but first, here's my take. britain has a new prime minister. and donald trump approves. >> he's tough and he's smart. they call him print trump and people are saying that's a good thing. they like me over there.
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>> in fact, only 28% of britons have confidence in trump. but the bigger issue is that boris johnson's rise to 10 downing street is bad for britain, for europe and even for the united states. johnson has assured the house of commons that britain will be out of the european union in fewer than 100 days. how he can manage this sweeping withdrawal without sharp dislocations to the british economy remains a mystery. but it's clear that were brexit to happen, it would accelerate the decline of why you were as a global actor on the world stage. britain has always been an organizing force in europe. it was the british government that took the lead making the marshall plan work in organizing the coalition that became nato. britain took awhile to enter the european economic community but once it joined in 1973, it became perhaps the most
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influential member. what is often forgotten in all the talk of the european union's rules and regulations is that its central project for decades was the creation of a single market, harmonizing taxes, eliminating tariffs, eliminating barriers. that vision was articulated and urged most an glessively by britain's free market prime minister margaret thatcher. washington's former ambassador to the eu stewart eisenstaedt explains that britain was always america's closest ally on substantive issues within europe. he writes, "with brexit, the united states would lose a major supporter on a range of important trade and regulatory issues whether uk's more free market approach mirrored ours more closely than most eu member states." on u.s. sanctions regimes against iran, russia and other countries on data privacy and anti-trust matters on counter-terrorism and on national security issues.
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britain is poised to withdraw from europe at a time when europe is withdrawing from the world. the continent was once led by figures like thatcher, mitterrand, and kohl who all believed europe had to play a pivot is role in global affairs. they navigated the collapse of the soviet em entire, welcomed in the countries of eastern and central europe and projected western values on to the post cold war world. today european leaders are concerned with europe's strains and anti-european back plarnz merkel is in caretaker mode. macron wants a stronger europe but bedeviled by domestic troubles. and britain is busily preparing for an exit. the main challenge to global stability and order is obvious. it is the assertiveness of
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powers like russia and china. in such a world, europe which has an economy second only to that of the united states, could play a crucial role in helping to preserve the rules, norms and values that have been built up since 1945. but europe would need to harness its power and act with purpose. in fact, it's moving in the opposite direction. we are watching the shriveling of a group of nations that have defined and dominated the international stage since the 17th century. and brexit will only accelerate the sad slide. for more, go to fareed and read my "washington post" column this week and let's get started. you are looking at boris johnson at buckingham palace on
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wednesday with the queen when elizabeth ii asked him to form a new government, he officially became the british prime minister, the 14th to serve under her as pm. the first was winston church little. more recently, thatcher, blair, cameron and may. zanny minton beddoes joins us from london, editor-in-chief of the economist, niall ferguson is an author and historian and a senior fellow at the hoever institute and a college contemporary of boris johnson. richard haass is the president of the council on foreign releases and a former director of policy planning at the state department. niall, let me start with you. you're a historian, a great biographer. and you also know boris johnson personally and have known him for decades. paint a picture of the man for us. >> well, you know, marx famously
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said that history repeats itself first as tragedy and napoleon iii in mind. it's hard not to think of boris ris as the farce sickle churchill and this is a kind of month i python version of the movie "darkest hour." i've known boris more than 30 years. it never ceases to amaze me how he survives kryss, fiascos and scandals any one of which would destroy a normal person's career. i've come to the conclusion he must have something more than the farsical qualities i just mentioned to have got to the very top which was after all his so reason for backing brexit in the first place despite all that has gone wrong in the course of his career, despite actually more recently his being quite a disastrous foreign secretary suggests that he does indeed have that strange super power that makes for political success. so while i share some of your
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skepticism, fareed, about the difficulties that he faces, i as one of his critics and not a close friend, even a frenemy, he's got something. otherwise he simply wouldn't have got to the top of the greasy pole. >> zanny, how does it look like in britain? what does the mood look like there? >> well, it's been quite a week. we have a prime minister who is not just radically different in style than his predecessor. you could not imagine a more different prime minister to may than johnson. we have a wholly new team, a new policy and effectively a new government. the striking thing what happened within hours of him becoming prime minister was the scale of the include he did in the cabinet. more than half of may's cabinet was sacked, a whole new load of people brought in who basically shared two characteristics. they were fiercely loyal to johnson and the second they bought into the idea that we are
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leaving the european you know by october 31st, no ifs or buts. that is now absolutely the policy of this government and the other bit that is very, very clear is that this is a campaigning team. not only did he bring dominick cummings, the mastermind behind the vote leave campaign into downing street as chiefer they are clearly a team getting girded up for an election very soon. i wouldn't be surprised if we don't have an election in october or before. >> richard haass, when you look from the outside, in order to get out by october 31st, it would seem like the europeans would have to make some compromises. first of all, it's basically august and nobody in europe is working. i don't quite see how in 100 days in the middle of the summer you're actually going to get some kind of negotiated exit. >> you wouldn't get a negotiated exit in the middle of winter either. the europeans are not going to cut a sweet deal with the british. there's no fondness for the new
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prime minister or those around him. there's no chance the europeans would set a precedent that might encourage others to follow suit. if it's going to be bremity, it's going to be punitive from their point of view. it will be bad for europe. it will be i would argue even worse for the united kingdom,ive deed it puts in jeopardy the fact whether it remains united. but taking a step back, looking at it from the american point of view, we lose a powerful partner on the continent that can't really use its voice anymore with europe and to some extent it puts not in jeopardy but part of a larger pattern you are seeing in international releases where the post world war ii order is beginning to come apart. europe was an amazing success. you had the project of nato and the project of europe. what we're seeing are both are coming under enormous pressure. again, it's further evidence that we now have a disruptor in chief in the united states and now he has a partner ten downing street. >> niall, does it strike you
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that there is a possibility for a second referendum as tony blair keeps urging, zanny talks about essentially an election which presumably would be a referendum on brexit. i think everybody is sort of moving for this kind of option because they can't imagine britain simply crashing out of europe. >> i agree with zanny. the goal is clearly to go for an early election. what boris johnson is going to do is to go through the motions of negotiating with the europeans not expecting to get anywhere for the reasons richard haass just gave. he has to be very careful in the house of commons where remember, he's inheriting a wafer are thin sole single digit majority from theresa may. that's a vulnerable position and has to make sure he doesn't lose control of this process to a parliament that's full of people that don't want a no deal brexit. there comes a moment when he says i'm not getting anywhere.
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we need an election and it's an election on brexits by all means or any monies means. the goal will be a polarizing election on that one issue. this is the critical point. he could lose and he could lose because the liberal democrats under a new leader pick up a bunch of seats from the tore riz and the labor party has embraces the idea of another referendum. if boris loses if this gamble misfires we could find ourselves within a short space of time with jeremy corbyn in number ten downing street in a coalition of labor plus liberal democrats plus the scott t nationalists maybe committed to two referendums another one on europe and another one on scottish independence which i think was what richard was add lewing to when he said this could below up the united
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kingdom itself. >> zanny, that's a pretty dark scenario. boris johnson serving as the shortest serving prime minister in britain. britain breaking up. >> he could be. for me the thing that is really deeply worrying and under appreciated is this whole policy is predicated on an idea that crashing out or a clean brexit or whatever you want to call it is somehow the end of the road and plucky britain will go its own way in the world. that's simply not true. the europeans remain our biggest trading partners. if we crash out october 31st if we do, then we zil have to come crawling back to get some kind of trade deal. it's not as though the game is then over. i think we're on for a wild ride in the next couple months. anybody to tells you they can predict the outcome is completely mistaken. it's really unclear. at the end of that, we still have the question of brexit which won't have gone away whatever the outcome. >> a terrific panel. we are going to move beyond brexit. next on "gps," robert mueller's
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testimony this week. he said russia was trying to interfere with the 2020 election already. what can be con to be deal with russia? i will ask the panel that and more when we come back. ♪ think you need to pay prestige prices for better skin results?
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minuten bed doors, niall ferguson and richard haass. richard, what i'm struck by it's all about mueller, what it means for trump. the central point of the report which was in some ways the central point of his testimony was the russians remain very actively trying to influence american elections. >> absolutely. he's not alone in saying that. a few weeks ago i interviewed christopher wray the head of the fbi, and he said what happened in the previous election was simply a warmup for 2020. this is not going away. if you're putin, why would it go away? this has been enormously successful, very low cost. the price he's paid is modest. russia is not a great power anymore. it's got nuclear weapons and conventional force, we've seen that in syria and ukraine. but this is their other big tool is their ability to cyber related tools to influence
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political outcomes to weaken what they see as their enemies and their adversaries. this is real. the question is, what sort of defensive measures are we going to take. in addition, are we prepared to do things that would make putin think twice before he does this again be it here or perhaps connecting to the previous conversation in the next british election or any number of european elections. >> let me switch gears here, zanny minuten bed doors. you are the editor of the economist. had you last week a cover on the american economy. so trump now has seems to have in some ways dealt with the mueller inquiry. he is presiding over the longest expansion of the american economy in history. is it likely that that expansion will continue into the 2020 election? >> well, i think that has to be one of the single biggest questions facing him. i, my sense is the economy is slowing. it's very clearly slowing.
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we're seeing the impact of the trade war amongst other things. what we're also seeing is central banks around the world particularly the fed and the european central bank making clear that they are going to loosen policy. so we're seeing central bankers acting precipitously or relatively early compared to the past to try to head off the slow down. i suspect we'll see a slowing economy. whether it will be dramatically slower or a recession is not clear to me but it's definitely going to be slower. will it be slow enough to be a real drag on 2020 is not yet clear to me. >> niall ferguson, what do you think? >> well, there's a little question mark over what exactly the federal reserve is going to do this year. because markets got very excited at the prospect of more than one rate cut. and yet, if you look back over the last couple of weeks, there have been signals of uncertainty including an extraordinary correction of the head of the new york fed john williams by
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his own staff. i think there's a possibility that we might get a little bit of a fright if the fed seems to change its mind or disappoints markets. but i broadly agree with zanny. the big story here is all the major central banks are moving on to preetchtive ease mode. it's as if that great debate on secular stagnation that larry s'mores started when he didn't get the fed chair job has been won and the central banks are saying yep, does look like we're facing secular stagnation and better get rates down zero. in parts of europe we're talking about negative rates in the bond market. this plays to donald trump's claim that he's making america great again if the economy does keep going, if he avoids the nightmare of rye session in 2020, i think he's going to have an extremely strong argument to make he's delivering on the economy. that tends to be the thing that drives the outcome of u.s. presidential elections. >> the one thing that could
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spoil this is u.s./china trade. a serious trade war. >> we're beginning to see a slow down of global economic growth, one of the principal reasons is a slow down in the rate of trade. and trade growth. it's probably what, several percent below what it was as recently as two years ago. donald trump in a funny way is emerging as the biggest threat to donald trump if as niall said and i think he's right that economic growth is his principal claim to getting re-elected, his trade policy and to some extent his immigration policy are working against him. so the question, at some point he has to choose, which way is he going to go, what's going to be his defiving issue. >> fascinating. thank you all. next on "gps," what do the opium wars of the 1800s have to do with the great unrest in hong kong today? we will make the connection when we come back. like unlimited with netflix on us. and now with each new line,
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a book that you're ready to share with the world? get published now, call for your free publisher kit today! now for our what in the world segment. the tiny and prosperous territory of hong kong has become the unlikely venue for a tense struggle over democracy and dictatorship in the world's most populace country. many have made gloomy predictions about the end of hong kong's liberalism and autonomy. what's astounding is who can kong has managed to exist as part of the largest modern
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authoritarian regime in the world and still retain any degree of autonomy in the first place. the root of this contradiction lies further back than you might think. a war between the british and the chinese that began in 1839. you see, in the years leading up to it, chinese cities were effectively closed to international trade except for the city of canton. what is now guangzhou where british merchants flocked to buy tea. as the historian steven platt explained to npr, they exchanged for the only commodity the chinese waned from britain, which flooded china even though illegal. eventually the chinese emperor noticed the dug scourge and his emissaries is seized and dumped all the opium in canton in the river. in response, the united kingdom sent in warships. the opium war ended in 1842 with
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a victorious britain establishing a new colony on the island of hong kong that would allow british traders to access the chinese market directly from right next door. envelope 189 , hong kong expanded when the british leased part of the mainland and an adjacentent islands everybody china for a period of 99 years. for a century and a half, the british ruled hong kong. it had its own legal system, open markets a stock exchange, free press and impartial juddry. while the communist revolution was transforming the mainland in the 20th century, hong kong experienced a revolution of its own, astronomical economic growth, a hub for global finance but finally in 1997, the lease expired and britain returned all of hong kong to china. the latter agreed to govern it under the curious policy of one country, two systems. this established hong kong's own mini constitution, it insured
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hong kong would have its freedoms for 50 years while becoming an inalienable part of china. jeffrey wasser strom points out it was shocking how little beijing interfered with hong kong was first. it was an economic powerhouse. some were hopeful hong kong might make the main lipd more democratic. that hasn't happened. as china's economy grew. the leverage hong konging had has shrunk as the size of its economies relative to schein slide from 20% of the mainland's in 1997 to about 3% today. shanghai began to rival hong kong as a financial center and now creeping nose control is visible. in recent years, beijing has attempted to interfere in matters of security and school curriculum and other things. in 2014, hong kong erupted in months of demonstrations known as the umbrella protests.
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they were calling for universal suffrage, a crackdown followed. the protests failed and this year a court handed down sentences to three organizers. today's protesters focus has transitioned from an extradition law to the idea of democracy itself. for beijing these protest coz have seismic repercussions. after all if hong kong should be governed democratically, why not china? the two sides are locked into positions with little room to compromise. whatever happens, we are seeing a drawnout process of hong kong not entirely willingly cleaning its history, fate and national character to the mainland. after a century and a half apart. that process will not be easy. next on "gps," trump threatened this week that he could win in afghanistan by killing ten million afghans. but he doesn't want to do that. remember, this is a country that america has spent 1 years trying to stabilize, rebuild, and make
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>> we wanted to fight a war in afghanistan and win it, i could win that war in a week. i just don't want to kill 10 million people. if i wanted to win that war, afghanistan would be wiped off the face of the earth. >> president trump made those remarks on monday. they set off a firestorm in afghanistan, afghan officials
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called the remarks unacceptable and cnn sources say that in the wake of the remarks, afghan president av ghani held a tense meeting with trump's envoy. even the taliban weighed in causing the comments irresponsible. joining me now an afghan official, royal rahmani, afghanistan's ambassador to the united states, she's the first woman to hold that post. ambassador, what is the reactioning in afghanistan? what do people make of this? >> thank you. you saw the statement that was put out by the afghan government through which we requested clarification. we have a much deep-rooted and multifaceted relationship with the united states and our soldiers are fighting shoulder to shoulder next to the american soldiers. what we also heard and i'm just coming from a meeting from white
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house right now, in terms of some of the clarification was that the president was really concentrating on the or focusing on the fact that he really wanted a peaceful settlement to end this conflict. he wanted to end the military intervention. >> so let's say to be charitable, the president always likes to flatter the person who is in front of him. he was trying to flatter the prime minister of pakistan. but that too is a bit of a puzzle because the president's last dealings on pakistan were to essentially brand it a terrorist state, uncooperative. he suspended aid. he was very tough on pakistan because pakistan, by many accounts, is the principal reason why the war in afghanistan has not been won because pakistan gives aid and comfort to the taliban and to various terrorist organizations associated with the taliban.
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has any of that changed? why do you think the president was -- has changed his view, seemed to change his views on pakistan? >> what i understand is that the president is giving a chance to pakistan recognizing the very important role that they will be playing in a successful peace process for afghanistan. of course, it is not deniable and the prime minister of pakistan himself admitted that in the past 40 years, militancy has been housed there, supported there and have been created. they there, in fact. so to that effect the explanation and the understanding i have is that the u.s. government recognized that important role and as they are resolved to finding a political settlement for the conflict in afghanistan, they wanted to take this chance and working with
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pakistan and ask them for sincere and practical cooperation. and i'm hearing that that is now being put into test. >> meanwhile, the president's envoy is negotiating with the taliban. ambassador ca lid zaud. do you know whether they're close to a negotiated deal and would the afghan government accept such a deal? >> whether they are close to finding a solution i am not sure because we are again as you know, still not on the table. we do want a peaceful settlement to be reached, a peaceful settlement that would be acceptable to all afghans, otherwise, it wouldn't be durable. and, of course, if it is not a durable settlement, it hadded have grave consequences for all sides.
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we also know that ambassador khalizad is working together with the government of pakistan right now. route right now in afghanistan trying to work it out in a way that it would be acceptable for all sides. we believe that he recognizes that the only way for a peace deal to succeed is that it has to be accepted by the people of afghanistan. it has to be negotiated by the government of afghanistan. and for that to sustain, there must be full buy-in and support. it must be a deal that is supported by the national collective vision. otherwise, it would not hold. >> ambassador, thank you very much. pleasure to have you on. >> thank you. >> up next, artificial intelligence threatens to put many workers in many industries on the unemployment line. but my next guest says it will not put doctors out of work. it will make them better. how so? find out when we come back.
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a brookings study released in january found that 25% of american jobs face high exposure to automation and artificial
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intelligence. that means some 36 million workers in the u.s. may lose their jobs to robots or computers in the future. one industry where such technology is already making huge inroads is medicine. in terms of research, busy doctors may have time to read the latest study on a given ailment. but artificial intelligence can digest every study on that illness ever published in terms of scans, many radiologists are skilled at finding the tiniest or most obscure abnormalities. i asked eric topple who wrote a new book called "deep medicine" if the ai might be even better at searching for trouble. >> absolutely. the key is machines can be trained with dean learning to see better than humans to see things humans can't even see. so with scans, 30% of radiologists will miss something on a scans where machines can be trained to get that rate down to
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less than 1%. it's really important and it's not just medical scans and slides and all the things that we are looking at with the data, we can get augmented help from machine algorithms. >> you make this point often that it's not that the machines will replace the human beings, that they'll augment them. when i hear that business about the scans i think to myself, why do you need a radiologist if the machine is doing a better job? >> for lots of reasons. because you don't want to entrust a machine with a human life. moreover, the machine has no contextule capability. all it can do is say i saw this nodule. s where the human factor which is the oversight that backup is so important to put it in perspective for that patient. >> correct me in i'm wrong, but you see the machines doing a lot of what we train doctors to do now kind of highly and littic, pattern recognition but you're saying the machines can do that better than the the humans.
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the doctors need to be more life coaches, empathy so explain what you see as the doctor of the future. >> you nailed it. in fact, if machines get better and it's happening fast, humans need to get more humane, they need to have that compassion. why did people go into medicine in the first place? here at this juncture, we are dealing with the worst burnout and depression ever in the clinical world. so here's an opportunity, this gift of time, to off load so many of these things to get help from machines and get back to the human bond, the human touch, the human factor. so that's what's so exciting here. if we work on this it won't happen by default, that is the squeeze will just continue which got us into this bad state but if we stand up for patients and if we use the efficiency productivity, the work flow, the accuracy, the speed we can get back that human touch. i'm excited about that opportunity. >> do you think doctors are
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being trained like that? i think doctors still think of themselves as these hyper rationale, hyper analytic and the bedside manner is old fashioned med medicine. there's meant to be these brainiacs. >> that's one of the problems, we've been selecting brainiacs. we won't need them and their grade point average and admission test scores. we need the people that are going to exude compassion. emotion gence is going to become a much more precious selection criteria. >> when looking at mental illnesses, you think that people might be more honest and exmost pose their vulnerabilities more to a machine than to another human being. there's good data to the back this. >> it's fascinating. who would ever have thought you would expose your inner most secrets much more likely to an avatar than a person? this is very helpful because with the short and we have of mental health professionals,
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it's already starting to be used to help support people. so that's actually a welcome and surprising fact. >> so at the end of the day, are you very hopeful about the application of ai and computers to smed medicine? >> i know what can be achieved in the near term which is this efficiency and productivity story, without question. that's what machines are made for and deep learning. what i'm more worried about is will we seize this opportunity? we may not see it for generations if ever, again, where we have this ability to get the gift of time and turn that back inwards for patients and to bring back the patient/doctor relationship which has eroded so much to bring it back to the way it was 30, 40 years ago. >> pleasure to have you on. >> thank you so much, fareed. >> and we will be back.
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trump's re-election campaign raised hundreds of thousands of dollars by selling plastic straws emblazoned with his name at the low low price of $15 for a set of ten. meanwhile, the president himself warned the nation that we have
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bigger problems than plastic straws. like wrappers and plastic plates. and it brings meese to my question. according to a new scientific study, what is account most ubiquitous manmade ploout pollutants, plastic traus, cigarette buts, plafrg bags or food wrappers? stay tuned and we'll tell you the answer. my book of the week is shari berman's "democracies in europe." this is a suburb historical study of the forces that produce democracy and threaten its survival. she writes win sight and historical perspective on some of the key issues we are debating today. and now, for the last look, proclaimed the death of predictability. >> as the climate crisis changes our weather patterns in
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unforeseeable ways making more severe everything from heat waves to wildfires, floods to droughts, but a new study published in the journal of science presents an arboreal avenue to fixing the problem. plant trees. a lot of trees. about a trillion should do the trick. you see, trees absorb carbon dioxide to make energy and then turn the carbon into wood where it stays for a long, long time. the study's authors told national geographic those trillion new trees could cut atmospheric carbon levels to a point not seen in nearly a century. and they've already identified hundreds of millions of hectares of unoccupied land all over the world where those new forests would fewer risch without encroaching on cities and towns. matt ridley points out in over aid 30-year period, we have seen a 14% increase in global green
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vegetation caused ironically in no small part by the increase in atmospheric carbon. for the authors though the continues release of large amounts of carbon has a clear net negative effect. exacerbating the climate crisis. they believe that their plan's real upshot is just to buy time as we transition toward a greener economy. but the best part of this plan is anyone can do it. in 2015, a crew of 100 volunteers planted 49,6728 trees in just one hour. think you can do better? well, get some neighbors together and go try. i dare you. the answer to my "gps" challengings is b, cigarette butts. according to a study in the journal of ecotoxology and environmental safety, that is an actual word, some 4.5 trillion cigarette butts are tossed out around the world each year, discarded cigarette butts can
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release toxi can'ts into the environment from nicotine to formaldehyde and the filters are made of a kind of plastic that will persist in the environment for years possibly decades to make matters worse, these put lanttants aren't just unsightly. the study found they reduce plant growth. even more reason to plant those trees and not to smoke. thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. i used to book my hotel room on those travel sites but there was always a catch. like somehow you wind up getting less. but now that i book at, and i get all these great perks. i got to select my room from the floor plan... very nice... i know, i'm good at picking stuff. free wi-fi... laptop by the pool is a bold choice... and the price match guarantee. how do you know all of this? are you like some magical hilton fairy?
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♪ bloom, there it is! ♪ bloom, there it is! this bloom-ified menu starts at $13.99. and try our everyday lunch combos, starting at $7.99. >> i'm brian stelter and this is reliable sources our weekly look at the story behind the story how the media, would, how the news gets made and how all of us can make it better. this hour, bernie sanders' campaign manager is standing by. plus two yushl journalists who helped spark the protests in puerto rico. coming up, april ryan and many more. let's begin with the one constant of the trump years. there are always more tweets. this weekend, racist messages raging from the president's twitter feed his attacks on