tv Fareed Zakaria GPS CNN April 8, 2012 1:00pm-2:00pm EDT
this is "gps" global power square. we start with the single biggest threat to global economy now the tensions between israel and iran. have a new round of sanctions eased security concerns? i will ask the defense minister, ehud barak. then to another trouble spot, the afghanistan/pakistan region. with koran burnings --
the united states alone in the industrialized world is demo graphically dynamic. it adds 3 million peoples to the numbers every year and at some point, kids don't want to live with their parents and that will produce demand for housing and at that point, the recovery will gain full steam. the new potentially game-changing trend for the united states is the rise of shale gas, thanks to the new process of fracing, american now has 75 years of natural gas and most important, it is the world's low-cost producer of natural gas. the rise in gasoline prices and
petroleum prices has obscured this much more important fact. energy costs are plummeting in america. that's why manufacturers like dow chemical are actually opening new factories in the united states. you see, asia has an advantage, lower labor costs, but now the u.s. has an advantage, lower energy costs than asia. and this is a process that has just begun. add all this together and you have the prospects of a broad based sustainable american economy. of course there are dark clouds, europe's woes could have an impact. china could slow down but the event that is most likely to alter this picture is an israeli strike on iran which would send oil prices sky high and could have other spillover effects. to shed light on that issue, we begin the show with a conversation with ehud barak. so let's get started.
jinning me now from tel aviv, the former prime minister and current defense minister of israel, ehud barak. welcome back to the show. >> thank you for having me. >> you have long argued that we need more pressure on iran. president obama announced recently that he believes there is sufficient oil in the world, the sun place of oil are sufficient to pursue an even more stringent set of sanctions, the tightest, harshest sanctions put in place against any country. do you think that this will be enough to put the kind of pressure on iran that you have wanted? >> no one can predict, fareed. it is clear that the -- the depths of the sanctions is different for what we had in the
past and it has its impact both the closing of the swift cleaning system as well as the sanctions on the oil export and of course, the coming negotiation negotiations that will probably encourage them to mom. i hope for the better but i don't believe that this amount of sanctions and pressure will bring the iranian leadership to the conclusion that they have to stop their nuclear military program. >> and if they were to make, if the iranians were to make some proposal or agree to some proposal, would you be satisfied, would the israeli government be satisfied if they were to accept accept some version of a very intrusive international inspections regime
accept the enriched uranium be made in russia? are these kinds of compromises ones you could accept as a solution to this problem? >> we see the iranian nuclear military program a challenge to the whole world, not just israel. we think to deal with it once it's nuclear will be much more complicated, much more dangerous, much more costly in both in terms of a human life as well as financially. at the same time, we are not against any kind of effective and urgent sanctions. not even against negotiations, we told our american friends as well as europeans we would expect a refresh shush for successful negotiation to be fear. the p5 plus 1 will demand clearly, number one, no more enrichment to 20%. already had the materiel out of
the country. then all the materiel to enrich 5%, except for a few hundred kilograms should be taken out of the country. once again, into a neighborhood trusted country. number three, the installation undered ground should be decommissioned to not allow them to enrich tonight 20% and inspection by the iea according to protocol 3.1 should be imposed. if all these are made, even if they get extreme fuel, their research, reactive, that is going to be okay, it would be a different region, the pf plus 1, would settle for a much lower -- just reaching 20%, it means that basically the iranians at the very cheap cost, bought their way into continuing their
military program, slightly slower but without sanctions, be a total change of direction for the world. >> and if that were to happen, if the iranians, were what you regard as a suboptimal or less than perfect solution, you have argued there is a closing opportunity to act because at a certain point the iranian sites get handed. do you believe it would then be necessary -- is there time pressure on you? do you believe that you have only a certain amount of time before which military strikes would not be effective against iran? >> you know, by the finish, we have a limited time, every quarter it becomes shorter by a quarter. i expressed in my view that we don't have to make a decision next week and we cannot wait years though. it is not a matter of week, but
it is not a matter of years on the other -- and before israel will be practically kind of deprived from the possibility to contemplate what would be done but that is not the real issue. i really see it as a major change for the whole world. really see it as a critical time for the rest of the world as well. and i really think the tightest possible sanctions and steps should be a way that we effectively -- >> but mr. minister, you said you don't have to decide this in a week but you don't have much more than a year. so, in effect, you're saying that there is a fairly clear timeline here that around some time in the next nine to 12 months, something those get negotiated.
>> i believe it is difficult for you as well. i read into your articles, you, fareed and me, have differences about it but i think that you are young and i'm right about it but no mutually assured destruction kind of situation will kind of -- willself as a modify or stabilizer in this case because we are now continent. doesn't want to get a nuclear weapon is just the kind of
tweaky kind of rhetoric. a report could not leave the doubt in the mind of any person that iran is determined to reach nuclear military capability in spite of the termination of the rest of the world to block them. and looking into the past, drawing from the examples of both pakistan and -- we feel it urgent. of course, we look at it slightly different from other nations but we think that it's important to deal with it extremely seriously and to -- not to remove any option from the table, except for containment. those who believe in containment see a ray of hope. i don't believe in containment, so i don't see how ease think is going to be solved. i will be happy to be wrong. >> mr. minister, there's a new book out in the united states
called "a crisis of zionism" by peter bynart. in at the proposes that the west bank and gaza should be described not as the west bank and gaza, not as jude day ya and soup mare ya but the undemocratics i real you have millions of palestinian there is who have no vote and no state. is that a fair characterization of the west bank, as undemocratic israel? >> i did not read the book so i cannot make kind of a statement about, but it's clear that the -- the deeper reason to have the solution of two states for two people is in order to make sure that israel, we would delineate borderline and have solely majority for generations to come and beyond which we will have a viable palestinian state
with a majority, where they express their i.d., their dreams and their aspirations and i think it's possible, not simple, it's possible, it needs goodwill from both sides, readiness to take tough decision and certain waits, if israel remajor the only political entity, west of the jordan riff earthquake the fact there is are blocks of millions of palestinians, they cannot vote to the knesset makes it public. fanned they can vote to the keep necessariet, make israeli by a nation of state t is clear all of us israelis, including israelis, that's what broke most of us, including the right-wing, to understand that the only solution is a two-state solution and that's what -- what netanyahu said more than once. the only issue we care about is
that the execution of the possessives of these two states for a solution, the security considerations of israel and its national interest will be taken into account. because, however complicated the palestinian state will be 20-odd states of arab nature and his real will repaint only jewish state in the region and probably the only member of the u.n., which is exprepressexpressedly to be a nation of the u.n. we are leaving no mercy for the weak and no second opportunity for those who cannot defend themselves. we want to be strong, ready to protect ourselves, whatever kind of stretch. but at the same time, stretching out our hand to make piece with any neighbor who is ready for it.
>> ehud barak, pleasure to have you on, sir. >> thank you. june next, we go froms i -- from israel to another hotspot, pakistan. be right back. [ male announcer ] citi turns 200 this year. so why exactly should that be of any interest to you? well, in that time there've been some good days. and some difficult ones. but, through it all, we've persevered, supporting some of the biggest ideas in modern history. like the transatlantic cable that connected continents. and the panama canal that made our world a smaller place. we supported the marshall plan that helped europe regain its strength. and pioneered the atm, so you can get cash when you want it. it's been our privilege to back ideas like these,
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new book "pakistan on the brink" and in islamabad, we are joined by cnn's terror expert, peter bergen. emmitt you it was a mistake to have put that bounty on half fess sayed? what do you think was the thinking behind it? >> i fear now that both countries have been in this very dense relationship the last six months. i think we are seeing now a tat for tat, a kind of proxy war going on now. because pakistan did not open the road when the americans expected. that is the road that is transporting goods from karachi up to the afghan order for the u.s. forces in afghanistan. that road has been shut now for nearly five months. pakistan was supposed to open that road after a parliamentary debate, it hasn't done so. i think this is an american response to that a week ago, we saw an earlier tat for tat when the head of sent come, general mathis was in islamabad and very
day the defense department releases a statement say ing that the americans were not responsible for the death of 24 pakistani soldiers on the border five months ago that sparked this present problem. so you know, both sides are instead of coming together and really healing the rift, i fear they are going further apart. >> you wrote in the piece in the ft that it is time to start serious conversations with the taliban and find some way to create some level, a kind of political stability. you know this is something we have all talked about for two or three years and nothing seems to move s there any sense there is movement on the u.s. side you can the taliban side? the karzai side? >> talks have started. there have been direct meet eggs between american officials and
afghanistan officials. they have been sometime midfor the moment because of events in afghanistan. the taliban wants to talk t was the taliban who approached the americans for talks two years ago, it should be noted, through the germans and through cat qat. i really believe the taliban do not want to see the americans leave and i really even worse civil war erupting in afghanistan as a result of that. >> so they are looking for some kind of a deal? >> yeah. they are looking for a deal with the u.s. so that there can be, first of all, think, a reduction in the vie lechblts both sides would have to build trust with each other and take measures, review survivors. olence. both sides would have to build trust with each other and take measures, review survivors. they want to talk with karzai about some kind of power-sharing
agreement with the afghan government. but i think the decision has to be made in washington they want to pursue negotiations with greater determination than before. even with perhaps more determination than the military trap. the u.s. military has to be sold that these negotiations are vital and the military, there will come a time when the military will have to play second if i hfiddle to negotiat i don't think the administration ready for that yet. >> peter, do you get a sense in pakistan if if there were to be some settlement, the u.s. were to had withdraw you does pakistan believe the taliban are basically there -- is their path to influence in afghanistan? the last time around, the taliban effectively came to power on the backs of the pakistani army. do they review the return of the taliban as something they want pakistani military to push for?
>> i don't think any great desire by the pakistani government to have a tall--controlled government, partly because there has been so much blowback into pakistan by taliban groups. i they do want to have control and one of the ways they see control is through the haqqani network in eastern afghanistan but that doesn't mean they want a taliban-controlled afghanistan at all and certainly don't want another civil war. an afghanistan that blow tos apart on their western border with produce huge refugee floes. pakistan has had that during the soviet war. they don't want a repeat of that i think they want a semistable government that isn't aligned with india. they see the taliban as part of that zooming out for one second, fareed, i'm very skeptical negotiations with the taliban will succeed because we have already run a chromed experiment on this question in pakistan repeatedly. the taliban government has done -- the taliban has done a peace deal for the pakistani government in '06 and '05,
waziristan, north and south, swat in 2009 and the taliban took in each of those peace deals so called, an opportunity to regroup and spread their inflew en. -- influence. i don't think they are rational actors but henry kissingers in waiting that you can do a deal that won't necessarily stick. as you indicated at the beginning of this ask you, the talks of whatever the status they were, they are not going very well. we don't have a huge amount of time before 2014 and i think it is much more important to be focused on the free and fair election in afghanistan in 2014 a very predictable event f that election is not seen as free and fair and resources are not put into it, make sure that is the case, that could be a sort of instigate other of a greater conflict in afghanistan and i think the u.s. has sort of put this in this binary thing. that somehow solves the afghan problem but a much larger political problem, some degree,
a free and fair election in 2014 might begin to solve. >> quit final thought? >> the taliban has a question of a regional dialogue with the neighbors and in fact that regional die loving even further away than before because now the u.s. is at odds with pakistan and iran. these are key neighbors of afghanistan. how are you going to prevent these countries from interfering in afghanistan after the americans leave in 2014? what role is the northern alliance going to play? these are important questions. and finally, the economic kpe question. there's no sustainable economy in afghanistan, even ten years after american intervention. the american forces will leave.
tens of thousands of afghans serving americans will be out of a job. >> thank you for discussing a subject that isn't going to go away. up next what in the world? understanding the problems in the arab world by exploring events that took place 1,000 years ago. don't miss this. blan ttd# 1-800-345-2550 ttd# 1-800-345-2550 let's talk about the typical financial consultation ttd# 1-800-345-2550 when companies try to sell you something off their menu ttd# 1-800-345-2550 instead of trying to understand what you really need. ttd# 1-800-345-2550 ttd# 1-800-345-2550 at charles schwab, we provide ttd# 1-800-345-2550 a full range of financial products, ttd# 1-800-345-2550 even if they're not ours. ttd# 1-800-345-2550 and we listen before making our recommendations, ttd# 1-800-345-2550 so we can offer practical ideas that make sense for you. ttd# 1-800-345-2550 ttd# 1-800-345-2550 so talk to chuck, and see how we can help you, not sell you. ttd# 1-800-345-2550 got the mirrors all adjusted? you can see everything ok? just stay off the freeways, all right? i don't want you going out on those yet. mmm-hmm. and just leave your phone in your purse.
to you for our what in the world segment. as egypt's election campaign gathers space, we are seeing the rise of candidates from islamic parties, one more radical than the next. across the arab world, the promise of the new birth of freedom has been followed by asch messier reality. and it's raised the question in many people's minds, why does it seem that democracy has such a hard time taubing root in the arab world? as it happens, a harvard economics professor, eric channy, recently presented a rigorous paper that helps unravel this knot. he discussed why there was a democracy deficit in the arab world and system maltically tests the hype both these against the data. turkey, indonesia, albania, bangladesh and malaysia have functioning systems so the mere pros sense of islam or islamic
culture can't to be blame. he looks at oil-rich state and finds some with vast energy reserves, like saudi arabia, lack democracy, but some without oil, like sir yeah, skels whether arab cull xhurt culprit but this doesn't provide clart u cheney points out many countries in the arab neighborhood seem to share in the democracy deficit, chad, uzbekistan, as zer by january, tajikistan, great they are not arab. then he talks about ancient history and modern economic. he notes that the democracy deficit today exists in lands conquered by arab armies after death in 632 a.d. of the prophet mohammed, lands that the arabs controlled in the 12th century remain economically stunted today. this correlation is very strong and not simply a coincidence. arab imperial control meant weak
civil society and a large role for the state, particularly in the economy. he documents the latter showing that the government's share of gd st. 7% higher, on average, among countries conquered by arab armies than among those that were no he also finds that these countries have fewer trade unions and less access to credit, features of a weak civil society. there are less medieval factors it has long been apparent that the dictatorships of the middle east form close alliances with religiousers to crowd out other leaders in groups. indonesia, for example, is a country with the world's largest muslim population and it has religious parties just as egypt does but it also has powerful groups that are less religious, more moderate and entirely secular, all these groups compete for influence on an even footing, something that is not happening in egypt or indeed in the arab world. his analysis remind us that the
real problem in countries like egypt is the power to undivided, unchecked, maintains its central role in the economy. the chief challenge in the arab world reminutes create a vibrant civil society which means political party bus also means a strong self-sustaining private sector.means political party bu means a strong self-sustaining private sector. the distinctions have ancient roots going back 1,000 years but does not meant region is impervious to change. history and the hab brit is engendered democracy's biggest foes in the arab world but these are habits. its have engendered democracy's biggest foes in the arab world but these are habits. he gives us a prescription for the very long term but a prescription for good change and we will be back. up next, an aught here knows a lot about the history of debts
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get headed in a new direction. ask your gastroenterologist about humira today. remission is possible. we think of our current economic crisis as new because at its heart is the accumulation of too much debt. but the battle between creditors and debtors is able-old. i had a very interesting discussion about this in london
recently with phillip coggin, the author of the economist buttonwood column and terrific book out "paper promises, debt, money and the new world order" which talk about the surprising history of our relationship with money and debt. listen in. phillip congress, pleasure to have you on. >> thank you very much, fareed. >> one of the things i'm struck by, you look at the current crisis we have with debtors and creditors, all of the western world in debt and you say this is actually not so unfamiliar, this is part of a much broader pattern? >> exactly. over history, we have had periods when people have built up too much debt and then we have had crises when the debt has not been repaid. the class sic in the 1930s n that crisis, debtors overwhelmed the cost of repaying the debt as we went to the great depression, governments were forced to
adjust the monetary system, drop off the gold standard and lines the straits of austerity they have imposed. >> you go back much further than the 1930s. you point out this pattern of societies accumulating too much debt goes back to ancient jude d -- jude day ya. we think of the queen's june labor day the word junely is referring to some kind of royal celebration with lots of horses parading around. what is the actual derivation? >> the idea of a jubilee was the time when all debts were forgiven and the jews did that every 50 years and is interesting, we have had these crisis about every 40 years, one in the 1970s when fixed exchange rates collapsed and the 149940s before that and often monarchs struggled to pay their bills and often they got out of their debt buys debasing the currency. old days, had gold and silver they would add copper and lead
to the coins the coins would go further. the roman emperors did it medieval monarchs did it and some say quantitative easing, creating noun buy bonds, is the same tribal trick all over again. >> we have an glad sovereign debt, in a sense, should be risk free and you point out that somebodiless told in the 17th censure roir 18th censure i wrote laugh. >> phillip ii, faulted on his deaths four times. the french used to imprison or execute their creditors.
very hard to grow the economy in those circumstances that leaves three nasty options, you can stagnate, like japan has the last three years, you can default, that's what greece has just done and what other countries in europe will probably do or you can inflate. so those countries which can create their own currencies you bore flowed their own currencies, like britain and america. we can inflate our way out of the debt. >> so much of the debate in america as a moral -- i don't want to say moralistic but infused with morality turks is wrong, it is immoral for debtors -- debts not to be paid. and -- but part of the argument is that it would create what
economists call a moral hazard, that if we don't force debtors to pay their dhets time, it creates the danger of another bubble, but reading your book, what i was struck by was you have done it every way -- every which way and every 20 or 30 years, another bubble form his way, when you have been punitive toward the debtors, another bubble forms. when you are generous to the debtors, another bubble forms. >> yes, i mean, if you look back only 13 years ago, russia was defaulting you and now russia is seen as one of the brics, the great new economies according to goldman sachs. countries have defaulted through history. greece is a serial defalter, five or six years ago they could borrow at a roughly similar late rite germany. i'm afraid creditors don't learn. perhaps different generations, go 20, 30 year, a whole new set of creditors who believe in governments only to be disappointed all over again. >> this time around, we are going to face some crisis, you
say the power will move to the creditors, as it always does, who are -- >> china this time around, think back to the 19th century britain, set up the terms of the gold standard, the dominant creditor nation, 23490th century, it was america and now china that has the money and a system that china design plus not look like the system we have had the last 30, 40 years, china likes man and exchanged rate, not floating exchange rates. china likes capital controls, not the free flow of money across borders. so, in five, six years' time, not something that happens overnight. that is what the system will move toward. if you look at what's happening in the world, you can see the first phases of that process beginning to occur. >> fascinating conversation. >> thank you, fareed. >> that was phillip coggin in london. stay with us. we have another really important discussion up next, the winner of last year's nobel peace prize tells me about her personal mission to protect women from a barbaric african tradition. or you just have to eat it as part of your heart healthy diet.
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i heard a speech recently that captured my attention. the speaker was a liberian woman named lama bowie. if the name sounds familiar, it should. bowie was one of the recipients of the 2011 nobel peace prize. the prize was awarded to three women for their nonviolent struggle for the safety of women and women's rights. in africa, that means everything from ending child marriage to forcing gender equality, from electing more female public officials, to stopping female genital mutilation. fgm, that is the barbaric ritualistic practice of cutting women's genitals.
and for leyma bowie, this is a rather personal crusade. but listen to her discuss whether she wants american help in her struggle. at a time when the u.s. is grappling with how strongly it should push certain issues abroad, women's rights in afghanistan, gay rights in africa, hers is an interesting perspective from someone passionate about human rights, but aware of the culture she comes from. >> i grew up in a home where almost all of my female family members went through the process of the fgm. >> explain what that is. >> the secret society where women go to go through the whole process of socialization and then at the end, you have to go through the female genital mutilation. we're five daughters. my dad was the one who put his foot down to say not a single one of them would go through this practice. >> do you think that some of those cultural traditions, are those changing so that if a young woman today, you know, does it take a man of your father's willpower to stop that,
or is it becoming more acceptable for women to say, look, i -- this shouldn't happen? >> i think it's a conversation that has started, and by virtue of the fact that the conversation is now on the table, it means it's changing. you know, it's not -- it's not overt. it's not going to happen overnight, but that women can now sit and say we had a choice to either do this or to not do it and others are resisting. whether they're running away or whether -- the conversation is now on, and in some villages people are now saying to some of the traditional women that don't you think we need to redefine why we do this? don't you think we need to also redefine the process of doing this, because going into the secret school, there are some very good things about it, according to my mother, but then when it comes to that aspect, the health, implications, and all of those things, some people are saying can we just look at the good side of taking our girls through the traditional schooling and just leave out
this one, so it is a conversation that is ongoing, o out there 10, 15, 20 years ago, it was a taboo. you could not talk about it, in my house, because the first person would ask, what do you know about it? it was always hush, hush, hush. even when people went, no one talk about it. >> do you think it's useful for the united states to lay down markers, hillary clinton has spoken of it, should americans should be more forceful about this issue? >> i think the whole issue should be left with people who understand the culture of context. because sometimes what outside voices do to this process is, it makes it more, i mean, really contentious. you know i think if the conversation is good to have allies outside that you can rely on, but when the conversation gets to the place where it has been driven from outside, it
makes it really difficult for those inside to start talking. because then it's like, you are all puppets of the west. >> what you did, which i assume is what got you the nobel peace prize, was you mobilized people, but women in particular, in liberia, to end charles stavros' bloody, long rule. you were 17 years old when the rule began, correct? >> yes. >> and it went on for 14 years. what was your life like in that period? >> from 17 to 31, i had gone through many different things. first you see yourself as a victim from 17 up until probably the age of 26. i was constantly in this mind-set of a victim. a victim, someone would come in and rescue us as liberians. god is going to change this situation. but gradually, as i got older, got involved in peace work, i realized that, mm-hmm, this is
not going to be the case. we have to solve this mess ourselves. and fortunately, i was at a place where i had now joined a community of women who understand that there would be no rescuing from any superman or from any king or mandela, we have to do it ourselves. that's how we stepped in, but it wasn't a pretty life. it was ant pretty wife. >> leymah gbowee, a pleasure to have you on. >> thank you, fareed. >> and we will be back. then let baby thinks of it. four million drivers switched to this car insurance last year. oh, she likes it babies' palates are very sensitive so she's probably tasting the low rates. this is car insurance y, they've been losing customers pretty quickly. oh my gosh, that's horrible!, which would you choose? geico. over their competitor. do you want to finish it? no. does the baby want to finish it? no.
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all the way to timbucktu. timbucktu was with actually in the news this week and it brings to our questions this week from the gps challenge. we know timbucktu is far away, but where is it, exactly? in which nation would you find timbuktu? a, mali, b, the maldives, c, smaomali somalia, or d, nepal. you can follow us on twitter and facebook. remember, if you miss a show, go to itunes. you can get the audio podcast for free or you can buy the video version. go directly there by typing itunes.com/fareed into your browser. this week's book of the week is,
"breakout nations" by one of the world's leading emerging market investors. sharma says that the brics, brazil, russia, india, china, those glowing growing nations are slowing down. so who is going to take their place? well, read the book. now for the last look. what caught my eye this week was an art installation from the chinese artist and dissonant. he put surveillance cameras up in his house in beijing, four in all, and earlier this week he began streaming them live. this was a protest against another form of surveillance, this one by the chinese government. the police cameras trained on his house. the frequent searches wei says he is forced to enduring, the monitoring of his phone and computer. but in a move that may not surprise you, four days later the chinese government told him
to take down the website. the government's own surveillance cameras are, of course, still up. the correct answer to our gps challenge question was, a, if you were to go all the way to timbuktu, you would be going to the center of the west african nation of mali. it was once a wealthy center of scholarship on the far edge of trade routes, hence its reputation, and today in mali's current crisis, it has become a torah rebel stronghold. before we go, some exciting news here at gps. we learned this week that the show has won a peabody award, one of journalism's most prestigious honors. the prize was awarded for my commentaries last year on iran as well as for our fixing education prime-time special. thanks. and thanks to all of you for being part of my program this week. i will see you next week. hello, everyone. happy easter and passover.
i'm fredricka whitfield with a check of our top stories. cbs news called him their "60 minutes" pit bull reporter. mike wallace epitomized dogged reporting. a mainstay on the show for 38 years. mike wallace passed away last night with his family by his side in connecticut. wallace was 93 years old. in about 30 minutes from now, "60 minutes" colleague morally will join us. in tulsa, oklahoma, two men are under arrest in connection with a shooting spree that left three people dead and two in critical condition. all the victims were african-american men. the suspects, both white males, were arrested early this morning. and we'll get more details when tulsa police hold a news conference at 4:00 eastern time today. we'll bring that to you live. at least 40 people are reported killed today in street fighting across syria. both sides of the conflict, the rebels, and government troops agreed to sto