tv Capital News Today CSPAN January 16, 2013 11:00pm-2:00am EST
disasters are impacting society because it is society that creates the disaster. disasters are not in themselves anything but the disturbance of nature. so somebody will be familiar and may be given were for disaster reduction, which came to an hand in the 90s, but i think that very distinguished group, the united states is very active in this regard. that distinguished group of scientists reached a point where they felt no one is listening. there was something about the strategy they try to bring to the attention that we were and prompted a very dangerous trend of undermining significant development in tax achieving all around the world. and there are a lot of geoscientists of course, but
also the very strong understanding the climate change is not only happening, but have been happening for a long time and i was going to be a clear determining for future disaster risk evolution. so the organization i represent is a relatively modest office, but what is not modest i would say is the international partnership is built around the international strategy for design to your reduction, they said thierry, which has one foot in the u.n. and one and the rest of the world. we can only build on science. you have to work with government supporters business, parliamentarians, with any stakeholder that understands and is willing to engage in
education and managing risk for the future. the first product to the first idea that people that got together in the early parts of the decade serenade instrument for international cooperation. that is key here. they started working on what became the framework for action. i hope at least 10% of you have heard about this. maybe. i'm used to it not being very familiar, but i'm also very used to that people now ascendant when we start describing it. the framework for action was sick to duration of the previous details. there have been neo, strategy, which was strongly science-based, so there's other strategies, but the new strategy was really about globalization. it was really setting a framework for what outcome, both
leinster to shoot goals and priorities in the sense of the people who put this together on the site thinks he will be in a safer a safer world. the adoption of the framework for action happened to coincide. as a coincidence come a tragic honesty and a teeny notion tsunami which took place in december is your number 2004. 2005 people that to adapt the framework and i can assure you, even though it's unfair, as in indonesia at that time, but i can assure you the framework for action gave a completely different political impetus by this hobby, which is of course another tragedy a stream because they really force the mind of many countries around the world.
having worked on the joke a framework and also set up a reporting system that countries fight in nearly reporting on the progress to the framework. this is quite a unique thing. you have 140 countries making report into the system establishing fairly discreetly i would say, a kind of a sign for global disaster risk and above all it coming to the advantage. so i think a little bit of the very strong emphasis on science have just appeared a bit during this decade than what i would like to see is the uv light the science input, in particular the economic and social science. i think the physical sciences
are there. i don't know if the cases in the united states, but i know for sure burleson the world when you asked this question, are you teaching risk academic levels? are you engineering students, learning about risk and the answer is all too often now. so just as a message to you, i am trained to mobilize academic networks to make sure the curricula gets more and more informed. business schools, but our universities around the world looking into a future where they can equip future leaders of countries and decision makers at every level to consider risk not yet. somewhere but can't you do with the science of course we need to reengage and revitalize the very strong interest in risk that
we've seen on the framework for action, the first generation. whenever bacchanal at the work that's been done and the evolution of risk, i think we've been in that. a preparedness if you call it. this penny. building systems, by reaching out, learning more and particular about the economic managing risk. the questions today about how we are going to pay in the future. it's a very critical. now. i'm sure we're going to hear from her administration fumigate about this. everywhere around the world is a clear message from governments that we cannot have the cost anywhere.
you will hear many governments say we have to ask you play a much bigger responsibility. you can call the risk transfer mechanism, but i think it's a very important shift in the app to two, where many governments have seen it as a role to take care of really fully. how to take this as the novel message and how it's going to play out is a very important point for how to manage future risk. so i think just to conclude on the risk evolution, there's a fundamental recognition that is still a gap, but if the world were to continue to maintain the idea of a sustained and equitable economic and social development that would also be inclusive, it is absolutely critical that risk is recognized and managed an on-site decent
society and that it's done on the clear recognition that in the absence of this there would be increasing my face, social instability and there will be radical changes in society and add to the risk of those disasters issue wreck as are many other senate disasters and one of the most critical and very convinced by now it's a long-term impact on individuals of disasters. not enough is known that the five, 10, 15 or disasters. education, health, and kind. many talk about the worst thing they remember of the disasters employment and economic classes and were not able to get back to where they were. this is an rich countries, not import countries.
this is where we will find a model for resilience. we have to look at it as in all of society regulation. i has to be a much bigger political priority to look at all aspects of resilience and safety. you are familiar with drivers of disaster risk. the framework was clear. climate change, technological race, poverty, government, a silent install moving picture might disasters suffering a lot here in the united states mike future water shortages. you cannot just say risk with urbanization and it's also economic growth, modernization, opportunity and also especially
the most economically efficient way of managing climate risk because you so many one place they might become feasibly financially from a different date. but all these factors of course transferase. internationally, if we take a quick look at the disaster trends, you will at for the disasters, you will see that type of disasters happen more and more everywhere. people ask themselves, what's the reason for this? when you work on disasters, you tend to let us ponder the reasons and you have to address it, but she was sad to see if it's a persistent trend, which it has been for 40 years now and what they say we do in societies that actually do not make us more capable to anticipate and mitigate the impact of these
disasters. six or seven years ago i met a group of meteorological climate specialists in this discussion of what does this mean and they said simply, you know, you can't say with any certainty, but for sure it means more of the same, more extreme and more unusual events anything that's not a bad plan and paradigm. it could be very expensive if you have to go then, as a model for do not be complacent, don't assume that every event is a final event and really take seriously that it's not the event that treats the disaster, it's a society. so how we organize society, how we design and build infrastructure, where we put our
industries and a lot also about governance and authority that goes in to manage risk in society as we will see. the knowledge base we work with is actually getting rapidly stronger. different kinds of global risk models are being developed. strong model for heart to project future losses and understanding various risk mitigation instruments are being developed. the ip cc i hope you know it has issued a report in 2012 on the extreme event. that's the language for disasters. they did it ip cc reviews scientific study together with disaster experts all around the world to actually see if we put these things together, what are the trends, can you validate the
part tichenor said. the insular for/do not yet except for a few cases that they say we don't have enough data to project anything. but nothing we've seen after that on the indication we are not continuing in the same direction. the economic losses are gearing up for disasters around the world. poor countries, rich countries, middle income. of course the higher the value of the losses, but the relative impact of the gdp is smaller. so the poor countries are still in a position where particularly if they are depending on only one or two areas of economic basis, they can easily set her 12% gdp like in a hurricane in
the caribbean. increasingly, they are in a situation that they barely rebuild their infrastructure before the next hurricane comes as the same infrastructure. so many countries today, i'm not saying they are happy with their ability to prepare and respond to disaster, but compared to everywhere 20 years ago, the capability to respond has much improved. what they see ahead of them is the fear of power we are going to pay for this reconstruction over and over again. we don't have the financial means to tackle this. where will feature instruments developed? how will the government and how can business cope with the losses they are incurring? these are the questions that will have to bring us together internationally and nationally to really look at the viability
of the model for development we have and how do we keep innovating? what is the rate of innovation and financial instrument? i don't think it's very quickly right now. we are so much taking up i respond to in marine. so the second factor is population growth. you will see not only economic losses, but also the population is growing two or three times as quickly the most vulnerable areas. river basins, flood prone river basins. that is the basis of a strong economic growth. so the combination of economic growth training accumulation of future risk is very clear everywhere and the evidence is strong.
all this means we actually could not hide a plan for the future. we could give priority to looking at this area. finally, when we look at feature resilience, i'd like to share with you a couple of things we have learned through the reporting of countries into the refraction monitor as it's called. through reporting cycles. what are they saying this success is quite one is building response to early warning system improvements. lots of legislation have been issued around the world. the big challenge is to get into this arena of development planning. it's an agriculture, water, land management, urban planning. this is what the framework was reducing on the languorous, the whole development paradigm, where we are still in the
preparedness phase of getting the guy and an strong direction that this is a high priority because the damage to society is not acceptable in there for to ensure all prices society, private or public in fact considers and manages risk. they also report the fact that they have great challenges of information. not that they don't have access to information, the kuwait information access and public spaces such a nervous volume and it's not really accessible for us as a decision-maker to use rationally. so how can we help people who want to use all the knowledge out there to have easier access to be able to manage their risk in a rational manner. third point, lots of issues around government.
pius? it's different in different countries obviously, this still all too often the responsibility to drive, and manage on risk mitigation is left with the national institutions that are in charge of emergency management. if you are an emergency manager, unless you're extremely low resource, you're also is extremely basic and many countries in the world to actually do not have to be very frank. you don't have the influence in the government institutions to coordinate the lead and drive innovation. so it's not so easy to be in that position nor do you necessarily have strong political access strong political accessibility chart down and put it behind the necessary decisions. the advantage of emergency management is very close to people and note the issues are.
so can be a strong guiding force. they come on public policy issues in a similar area. the framework for action now in 2013. in 2015, we come to the end of the first working. so to say that the flashier we've been requested to facilitate discussions on the post-2015 framework and so this is our day started in all the regions in the world. of course here in the united states that their partners also trying to look into the future, what will risk look like in 25 years, what are the critical areas that if we work together internationally can really be hopeful to countries regional organizations and motivating a shift in how risk is managed.
to think the countries say clearly so far. one is we really have to tackle the issue of climate change and disaster risk reduction. disaster risk reduction traditionally have so far been called climate adaptation and it the same thing. so why do we have separate policies and practices? why don't they make more rational use of the resources? so they say please come to grips with this and the next framework for action. second thing that i believe this is that many people come emerging risk is to understand the more complex society becomes, the more vulnerable we are becoming at the same time. the merc says terror infrastructure and many fear is that fukushima accident after
the earthquakes and i'm in japan raised are of course not only committed to nuclear power plants. it's also chemical industries, living side to side with all the technological advances and went in fact the combination of a major earthquake on the major will have that we are not quite sure how resistant is to these things. we are increasingly clear this is one of the major risks, economically, socially, politically to how we manage future disaster risk. so with that, i wish her a successful conference that i look forward to hearing what other three things you want to do after the conference. thank you very much. [applause] >> thank you, margareta.
and gathering lots of questions out here, so keep them coming. it is interesting than listening to margareta remarks how many sessions we have this afternoon in the symposium and workshop stomata that were picking up his themes so there's plenty of opportunity to drill down deeper. introducing craig fugate is a challenge. the federal emergency management agency sent the people don't care about except when that's the only thing they hear about. you don't hear about them, but when a disaster strikes they are front and center in the news the federal perception is a roller coaster ride. after katrina was subject to a lot of criticism.
the last four years, fema is stand in an appreciation and has risen dramatic way. it has gained a level of respect that i think it's absolutely essential and reflects the fact that leadership is really given a lot of preparations so when disaster strikes, fema is ready. not just a thought, but its relationships with different levels of government and that is due in very large part to the leadership that craig fugate has brought to fema. his background is interesting. he began as a volunteer firefighter and emergency paramedic. now if any of you have had an opportunity to interact with volunteer firefighters and paramedics come you know these are some of the very best people in our society.
i happen to know several and they are phenomenal people and to see somebody like that rise to the position craig has his testament to meritocracy in our society and that is a really great game. he was director of florida's emergency management agency for many years. in 2004 heats up with four major hurricanes in one year. that is a test for anybody at any time. so for the last four years, he has been had at this federal emergency management agent he has done a phenomenal job. craig, if you look onto the stage, i will hand the podium over. [applause] >> well, thank you.
coming from the south we are often comedians make fun of southerners and one of the things they make fun about his certain things we call science. it might be assigned as. so it might be a sign that the private sector won't insure you. ever thought about that? we oftentimes get so lost in talking about policy and cause them to base over climate change, it's a real, not real common man made, not man-made. i worked pretty much in a world of outcomes and not in theory. it happens come you do with it. so ask myself if the private sector with all their financial resources and tools cannot figure out how to make money off of your risk, it might be assigned. they can do for house fires, can't say? they can do for your car or come
as bad as they try a recent d.c., can ensure you and you can afford it. you may not like it, do you can afford it. they figured out how to make that work. how come they can't do earthquakes? how come they can't do floods? how combat doing mold or sinkholes further hazards. it may be assigned. and i think this really gets down to some thing that we oftentimes when we talk about disasters in response, everybody is always the try to make everything that the way it was or better. we always hyphenate we want to build it back better. or to ever see the insurance companies go yes he built a goodness, we will now ensure it. so i think the challenge we have is when we talk about hazards, we are talking about risk and we are talking about investment strategies and who bears that
risk. now, my sense is if you're in the united states, most people don't realize this, sublet me tell you which is type in a couple weeks ago. the national flood insurance program actually has more policies than we have cash on hand and when sandy had, the amount paid out exceeded the cash on hand in our existing borrowing authority. so congress has to appropriate almost $9 billion so we could go out and borrow enough money to pay those claims off. who is paying the interest on that? who was ultimately sat with the data if the insurance policies never pay that off? do the taxpayer. you are the insurance come me. it's called the national flood insurance program. you are responsible for that
exposure and at the point where fema can no longer borrow enough money for congress cannot find my money, we will build a payer claims that the fault, which means it will come back to you the taxpayer to make up the difference. why was the flood insurance program created in the first place? remember that saying about it might be assigned? from the private sector said the risk and exposure to flooding is greater than our ability to make returns for shareholders. first of all, insurance companies are not evil people. they have a job to do to manage risk in such a way they can provide coverage at a rate which they pay out less than they take in some money gets generated to pay shareholders to get 10 invested in the first place. they said was sleds we can no longer do that.
our exposure is greater than the potential return on our investment and therefore we cannot continue to investor pensions, retirement plans, your bonds and individual funds in this risk anymore because the exposure is to create the work going to lose money. a very capitalistic approach. the problem with seaside so many mortgages that were now exposed that it was going to create a potential second impact and that the exposure to institution sluggish unless policies that have no coverage if a major flood event occurred. ..
which i have no idea how much it will cost something that happens every couple of months. we can figure out how to deal with risk and we can figure out how to communicate. your chances of buying a lottery ticket and winning is less than getting hit in a flood. but most people go out and buy lottery tickets and you'd be surprised how many people don't buy flood insurance so we don't do a good job that people don't get this but the challenge we have put flood insurance is we have now built a program which congress recognizes in the reauthorization act.
we are subsidizing a risk below market rate and unintentionally have created dynamics where we are not navigating that risk. we are actually continuing to build and fight an argument over flood rate maps on baseboard elevations but we are under this race for so long as at such a low rate to make it affordable you the taxpayer are now responsible for an extremely large portfolio policy. and we have reached the point where congress says we need to move these now a way from affordability to actuarially sound. that is easier said than done because one is new policies come out the first thing you will hear us poor people can't afford to live where they are living. you will price them out of their homes. so there will be i think more issues of how you balance that, but the flood insurance i think is just one example of the
challenges we have in this country. how do we manage risk? and from the standpoint of the taxpayer, where should we make our investments and where should we accept exposure? the problem i have put flood insurance is people that benefit from that of those that have the policies that can live in places most of us only dream about living in. you have got to understand there are a lot of people that grew up in the areas areas and they are not bit and fitting from being on the coast but one of the side effects is you are subsidizing them. housing in coastal areas where many of us cannot even afford to live there much less visit on a frequent basis yet you underwrite that risk. do you get a return on that investment? are you benefiting from that? is there enough tax being generated in the economy to offset that and when a disaster occurs are you on the hook for all the infrastructure and everything else that may be required to rebuild that community? and isha return on that exposure
greater than what your payoff would he? now the taxpayer, the answer unfortunately is too often now. we have subsidized risk to a point where as long as no extreme event occurs, it seems okay. but when the extreme event occurs you are now exposed to much greater costs without necessarily generating revenue or other societal benefits offsetting that risk. now, through the 70s and 80s and early '90s, when a lot of growth was taking place in growing coastal areas and other areas very few storms were occurring. the frequency was down so the illusion was i a pitcher for 3030 years and this never happened. the problem with climate and weather is 30-year cycles are like an eyelash in understanding
how these systems work. notts talking about any other issues and now we find ourselves in this increased activity and you are seeing on top of it cascading reoccurring impacts where we have the whole issue of vulnerable areas with increased population density that decreased resiliency with supply chains that are built for just-in-time with very little slacker capability to make up and very few fallback situations, and then you accelerate and increase the frequency and duration of events that are occurring. in the last three years i went from the worst flooding and the worst tornado outbreaks, 500 year flood event nationally and then i go to the worst drought and people underestimate droughts. droughts cause more problems economically. a few hurricanes and sandy was a
hurricane for a while and whatever you call but called it afterwards is an interesting debate or go we are talking about manhattan. i want you to think about this. people are talking about sea level rises in inches and maybe a foot over decades. sande produced storm surges of three to four meters or over 12 feet in one of the most densely populated areas in the united states. and everybody says, i didn't think was going to happen. i'm like well i have got pictures in the 30s when they were flooding the subways that then. it just doesn't happen very frequently. we have hospitals and all of their imaging equipment in the basements. it makes since when he don't deal with storms every year. it's much easier to shield antiwar statistically isolated
and it's a great to put that type of equipment. now if you were getting hurricanes every five or six years she would not have built it there but you haven't had a storm system. it made perfect since when you did it. we are not going to rebuild it this way so this is the last part from the science perspective. here is my ask. who is making the decisions about where rebuild, how we build the building codes? if you are not in the united states some of you might think it's a state government. where did these decisions get made? local officials. whether they are city or county commissions, this is where the decisions are made every day where added that the risk exposure occurs but on a day-to-day transactional basis you probably don't really see this. this is where decisions are made about where rebuild and how we build, the types of building codes we are going to enforce.
yet many of these officials are under tremendous pressure in economic downturns to generate revenue. how do they generate revenue? jobs and growth. have you ever seen anybody running for office saying i want our community to be smaller? is always jobs and growth. that's the mantra. that is how we tell the tax base yet they are having to make decisions that oftentimes are short-term, a very very limited windows on what the risk is and we do not give them good tools to go, is this investment, is this construction, is this development going to return more money to my taxpayers or have i created a hidden exposure because once we approve this we transfer that risk from that development in those people living there, we will transfer that to the taxpayer. are they going to get enough benefit from that? this goes back do we don't have a good way of managing risk and though give local officials good tools to say these decisions
make sense. these decisions can be mitigated. we may be able to dosome things to allow this to occur but not transfer excessive risk and oh by the way the tax base -- tax base offset that. we see these decisions made time and time again in terms of short-term games where risk may be transferred to the public without a clear understanding of are we getting enough return for that? a second thing is when we talk about climate change, have your debate and have a nice day. i have to deal with adaptation. whatever you are discussing something is out there and it's been going on an accelerating. we are talking about in many cases incremental changes and i'm dealing with acute events. when we look at mitigation strategy, i think we have spent so much time looking at things like flood insurance rate maps and trying to normalize it and look at it actuarially.
we have to take a step back and say perhaps it's time we stop looking at building contents and building value and looking in looking at this as insurance in trying to figure how to mitigate this. this is a critical piece of infrastructure like a fire station or school, a key utility of. shall we not put more mitigation in that and get the maximum impact? again manhattan. we are talking a sea level rise projection in inches over time, maybe a foot. what are we talking about in a hurricane? 12 to 15 feet. what am i going to mitigate? sealevel rise? or the maximum theoretical consequence of a catastrophic disaster. can i do this for everything? absolutely not. we need to make sense financially but what if we started looking at the functions we do and how to build resiliency and the function versus just looking at we have got to do the whole community. we are already there. it's already built.
how do we mitigate the most critical functions? the last thing is, i love the term resiliency because it's like mitigation. it's almost like -- and nobody will agree upon it but resiliency, i made this joke because it's a correlation that's 1:once when it at that academic world eye for general asians talking to people i think it's an important point. i think dif visions he has become the enemy of resiliency. i think this is something that we have dealt economic models that were ordered return on investment in such short periods of time that we have force ourselves to developing systems that are just so lean to ensure profitability that we do not understand and now see the consequences of shocks to the
system where the system no longer has the ability to absorb and manage. they are -- they have become so brittle that the disruptions and demands make the systems almost guaranteed to fail in these types of events. so how do we start talking about the supply-chain? how do we start talking about interdependency because when you start getting into cyber, this is where people start seeing cascading impacts. what we saw in japan again was his cascading impact of a singular event cascading into multiple events adding to the secondary and third order events that became actually more impacting than some of the initial impacts. at least politically they did. so how do you look at systems and resiliency in the face of the types of events occurring and try to look at, how do you show investors? how do you show boards of
directors that you need to have that balance between those lean efficient, very profitable systems and where the tipping points that you're resiliency customers with regulatory and tax would outweigh the things you need to do to build a capacity system? again in the united states most of our critical of the structure delivery is provided by who? investor-owned company's, right? weathers utilities, food, supplies or health are health cd a lot of other things now. you can't just go in and say investors need to up and you are going to pay everything. i think again we oftentimes are looking at such short windows for return on investments that we have essentially accelerated vulnerability to a known hazard by building systems that are less and less resistant. and again i can go back and people say it wasn't as bad in the 80s and 90s.
what has happened? weiss is so much worse? technologically we are doing it better, smarter and faster. why? it's a simple answer. fewer people and fewer resources. not a lot of slack in the system, and then not a lot of excess capacity. it's been cut out and we are more vulnerable now. if that's the model we are in then how do we as a body build resiliency into that? the government, subsidies? how do you do that? those are my asks. thank you. [applause] >> did i mention he is an amazing or to matt? while i'm about to ask some questions here, i see two members are in their seats. if the other members of plenary one can take the seats here and
we will be ready to go for plenary one. this whole idea of a resiliency and sustainability with something that we actually had a special meeting about with the united states and our mental protection agency yesterday on sustainability, delving into the core concept that we often think of sustainable communities, sir stable systems as steady states when in fact in a world where major disruptions are frequent and severe, sustainability must be something that is dynamic, must be something that is resilient and responsive to dramatic changes and dramatic impacts. and so, the results of that epa
symposium were distributed to you this morning and some of the sessions coming forward including one this afternoon. there was a question about the framework for action that margareta mentioned in her remarks so i would like her to answer that question. h wyden go which is a -- in japan and i assume that is where framework for action was developed. so which h wyden go. i want to know some of the questions that you have been asking and i have got about 10 times more -- 20 times more than i can ask so i'm going to ask some general
questions here. the first one comes after something the both of you mentioned. this is the issue of funding changes in communities that make them morries elliott. neither one of you draw budgets that can bring about changes of the scale that are required. and so, what can you do and what needs to happen to get the funding flowing to wear it needs to have the changing impact? obviously we are all familiar with what's happening here in the u.s. but it is probably a more acute issue in poorer countries throughout the world. so craig you have got the microphone in your hand so why don't you ask the first and hand microphone to margareta. >> i think particular as you see what's going on now with the funding for sandy aid used to be
with the united states is always easy to get the money after-the-fact in almost impossible trying to get money before the event occurring. it's impossible now given the current budget climate is extremely difficult. i think again it comes back to the preponderance of these decisions over time that accumulator made at the local level. get almost everything we are targeting against is national and federal policy does not dictate a lot of that. we basically use incentives and disincentives through taxes and grant funding. the decisions are made at the local level and i think what i'm trying to get our people to look at is we have got to quit selling medication is a gloom and doom and we really need to look at it as a transference of risk. that you want to make good decisions for your community. you don't want to say i am not a
new broker. but what i do think it's unique to give local decision-makers better toolset when they get high pressure to build because of job's, they have the tools to say this makes sense, this doesn't make sense for our community, cut the risk is too great or by doing this mitigation we can manage this risk and benefits the community. i think we oftentimes and this is true in our flood insurance policy, we have a one-size-fits-all and it's almost binary, yes i know. our firm says don't robair. the last time i checked the ocean wasn't moving and people wanted to be near there. can we do it in such a way that doesn't transfer extreme risk back to the taxpayer without seeing benefits? should we allow the construction to go there without increasing code requirements? we still have parts of this country works like a checkerboard. you can have could have a million dollar home next to the build -- -- house in the same
neighborhood and we saw what happened to cindy. the ones built after had damaged basically they got the power back on the sand picked up they could move back and. that development may be except ultra-risk because the tax base it generates and that many of them are secondary homes and have a demand for services. that might be a good way to make that decision but most people don't have the tools to make this repetitive basis across a lot of communities managing that risk market back and forth. >> if we look at internationally , people in low-income countries with a very high-risk, there are many countries where risk prevails.
i don't know if you represent the philippines here at this conference but very far reaching decisions of transferring decisions to the local level. so large where the financial resources made available that they can be really used in the timeframe that they were offered. all that is to say it's not just money. is also of course some of the policies. it's the direction, is the knowledge and the clear sense that this is a priority. so there has been a lot in the last few years, a lot of mobilization of local government. the practice of working directly with local government is very effective and it comes to concretely how do you manage risk and set priorities at the local level?
sector citizens in the local town or city actually can engage in the risk identification and risk management company you have a very different dynamic. you have the potential to build alliances look leave for mitigating obvious risks together to reduce them. one of the effective proponents of managing local risk is that governor who has been very clear all along. he's a very sophisticated economist. he says i never talk to people in my community about risk. i tell them that our goal is to achieve in his case the millennials development goal but in order to do that you actually have to invest in risk reductions. he puts away 10% of its annual budget for local income and other sources. very consistently has been decayed by now.
it's also, it is money of course obviously but it's also the choices he made particularly in the beginning of rapid economic development. what do you do with the destruction? how do you let your town developed? how do you deal with the positive issues in the most vulnerable groups in your society? these are the concrete decisions at the local level. if you think about the international perspective and the international development or the priority to strengthen -- so the short answer is no. it goes against what everyone is talking about, yes. policies are changing gradually. but i don't think the the flow of resources is anywhere near what the talk is generally of
how important it is to reduce grists today. on the other hand, come maybe i should also say in comparison to national resources, nationally generated resources in comparison to foreign direct investments in some countries the financial resources through overseas development assistance are minimum. the most important thing we are really working on is what the national choices are and that is why we are investing quite a lot of mobilization in getting business and bald in their interest and they share the responsibility for how to invest in environments and how to report those local governments that actually take large responsibility for mitigating risk with their is this an investment. >> thank you.
we have time just for one more question. i've got about three hours of questions and frenemy. this next one combined three or four cards, a question that came from the audience and it comes under the title of damned if you do and damned if you don't. this is about rebuilding and reallocating. what happens to poor people who can't afford to keep their homes and craig you dealt with this and margareta also. also some of the vulnerable areas are also economic centered where factories and infrastructure and corporations in areas and that is part of what drives people to be there. there is also an industrial economic aspect to this. part of the challenge about helping are not helping is an
ethical question as well as a legal question. i would like each of you to address that briefly if you could. >> here is how i have been framing it. i have been in too many places in this country that i called the proverbial one company town. but it's in a flood zone. and the workforce lives in housing low to moderate income but what is affordable there in a flood zone. the flood comes and washes everything out and there's no textbased. there's no work horse and the company closes in the local officials go, what happened? this is what i'm talking about with resiliency and again we have to put this into terms of dollars. and what those impacts are. i look at resiliency this way and i think what you will hear is you you're going to hear this
all through senior government. fema is telling us we can do this. you can't build there. and we know better. except you are not going to have flood insurance because we have to make sure that risk is covered and that is why they are there but understanding as long as somebody else is telling you you have to do something you are going to look at every way to get out of it and ignored or you're not going to embrace it. let's change this around. i don't want you doing it because somebody told you do it. i want to did do it because you look at to task and for the united states local official its tax base. without taxes there are no services. you may hate taxes and you may never want to pay taxes at the bottom line is for governments and the united states and local in local and state governments without tax revenue you cease to provide essential services, right? develop the tools to give them how to look at the residency of their tax base and their
exposures. understand after disaster is easier to make big dynamic changes but in small incremental changes, how do you look at decision scheuer making to say that if something happens our tax base is resilient enough we can survive it. , we are so exposed to this if it happens when you understand what those consequences mean. said the issue about rebuilding affordable housing maybe it's not a good idea to rebuild it where they are the most vulnerable at but you can't zone them out of your community. this is one of the things we have seen and what i called the design and collect where local officials are in a disaster and they say that's pretty good land and we could get all those folks out of their and move them somewhere else we could redevelop the area and make more revenue and more generation. the problem is if you put your workforce to far away what happens to your economy? so it drive something that they get, tax base and it may be cold
hearted and i think in a pragmatic way if they don't understand what it takes to have a resilient tax base in the face of the threats and what their current exposure looks like -- most women have new clue. i would like to break it down and if this one occurs at this level this is what your textbased looks like in three or four years. and what are the steps you can take to build resiliency? this is the other thing we started talking about a fema. it's not the easy stuff, but all the stuff that the community is made up and how do you make sure that in building your community you are not zoning out in pricing out or eliminating affordable housing. the real answer is it may not be possible for people to rebuild and live the life that they have lived for generations in the same spot for take or leave lilly when they have flooded out
for the fourth, fifth and sixth times. many of these people actually are trapped because they can't afford to move out and they don't have the resources or go oftentimes the first time not a lot of interest in the second or third time they want to be looking. they want to get their families and more stable environment. i think again we have to sell this idea of resiliency in a term that local officials get in the medium and short-term. tax base. taxes don't commend, you don't have service. it is something that is tied to a lot of factors that we all try to take a look at that it's almost overwhelming. if you start driving tax bases, how decisions are affecting your future in which her vulnerabilities to disasters are based upon the resiliency of your tax base, it allows us to introduce a lot of these other issues in a way. we are not telling you you can't do something.
we are giving you tools for your tax base and what your exposure is. and what that vulnerability looks like the making of budgets decisions. >> i always start with, no matter wherein he go in the world there are disastrous events in communities and one other thing no matter where you go people don't want to leave their homes. quite frankly i think that emotional reaction is exacerbated by the disastrous events. it's an emotional reaction but it's very strong and i remember i met one of the mayors and the region after the earthquake and he said immediately after, this is one of the communities that was literally wiped out in front
of a very high mountain. he said immediately after the disaster, the people said we are never going back. we are ready to move out. the number kept going down and of course people forget and prefer it doesn't happen again. local officials left alone, it's an enormous challenge dealing with people and their reaction. so building back, how you build that depends on your capability to deal with in the timeframe and your community and their economic pressures. it's either too fast or too slow but it's never the right pace. we know that of course. these are decisions you make locally. the second is i think disasters
are dynamic. they are never the same but what it actually means is we are not inclined to think about moving human settlements, but the risk doesn't look the same today as 25 years ago and in another 10 years it will look different. that was the experience of the many companies and bangkok who were flooded for three weeks. when they established it sure they did a risk assessment. they were close to population and they had transport on the river. they had clean water and everything they needed. are they going to move? they are not sure. so dynamics, not only of course the the disastrous event to be mitigated but is eventually thinking about the longer-term option not the ones that are
forced upon us by the necessity of a fairly rapid reconstruction. it's probably an opportunity that we have made too many times and a third is this is typically maybe for the western world. are added to disasters has put behind us -- and what i learned in japan is you have to nurture your disasters. you have to remember them. you have to keep learning about them and i still remember the governor 17 years after the earthquake the year before the tohoku earthquake. he said at a memorial ceremony, i'm quite worried excess people are beginning to forget the big disaster. and that makes us less resilient to deal with the conflict lessons. unfortunately, the people of japan have to answer to that concern. but i think there's a strong lesson in that we must not put
>> one of the most unusual introductions i have received that much appreciated and it's an honor to be introduced by my class late -- classmate john henry. john is the -- most of john's ancestors were prominent virginians during the period of the colonies but were mostly anti-crown so i asked asked john why is at it that patrick henry was the most outspoken? and his answer was incredibly -- richard it's because he was for. however poor he may have been patrick henry was a very rich warrior and one of his greatest features he said in the quote different and often see the same subject in different lights and therefore i hope it will not be disrespectful to those gentlemen if entertaining opinions of a character opposite to theirs and i shall speak forth my time is freely and without reserve.
this is no time for ceremony. it's an awful moment for our country. patrick henry was addressing the repression of the american colonies by the british crown and tonight i wish to speak to a different kind of repression, the injustice of being held hostage by large financial institutions considered too big to fail or by the acronym tbt of. and unfair tax upon the american people and moreover they interfere with the transmission of monetary policy which is my business and they inhibit the investment of the nations economic austerity. i've spoken on this for several years as you pointed out john and i began with a speech in july of 2009 entitled the apology is too big to fail. my colleague and i and her staff
have written about extensively it extensively and tomorrow we will be issuing a special report available on the net that further elucidate their proposal for dealing with the apology is too big to fail. it also incidentally addresses the superior performance of community banks in regional banks during the recent crisis and how they have been victimized by the excessive regulation from responses to this sense of the behemoth counterparts known as too big to fail so i want to urge you when we make a public tomorrow. the federal reserve convention requires that i issue a disclaimer which is that i only. >> for the federal reserve bank of dallas and not for any others associated with their great central bank. this is usually abundantly clear but i have to say that. in many manners my staff and i maintain opinions that are very much different from those of our seen colleagues at the federal reserve and their central banks
of today i will speak forth my sentiments freely and without reserve. of course i mean no disrespect to the others who may harbor different views. everyone and their sister knows that the financial institutions that are too big to fail or as you mentioned john were at the epicenter of the 2007 in 2000 financial crisis. previously thought of as a sea of priests they became agents in a financial tsunami. and now that the storm has subsided we at the dallas fed's submit the key reason to governmengovernmen t policies have failed to adequately affect the economic recovery. harvey rosenblum and i wrote an article about this in "the wall street journal" in september 2009 and we titled it the blob that ate monetary policy. put simply, sick banks don't lend.
undercapitalized megabanks stop there landing in the capital market activity during the crisis of economic recovery. they brought economic growth to its advanced dylan then they spread their sickness to the rest of the banking system. congress thought it would address that matter through what's known as the dodd-frank wall street reform and consumer protection act and preventing too big to fail from ever occurring again is in fact the preamble of dodd-frank. weakens in in the dodd-frank is not done enough to corral too big to fail banks and on balance actually made things worse not better. is submitted in the short-run parts of dodd-frank have exacerbated weak economic growth by increasing regulatory uncertainty in key sectors of united states economy. it has benefited many who are known as lawyers and it is created has created many new levels of bureaucracy. despite his good intention we believe it has been counterproductive in working
against solving the core problems that it seeks to address, too big to fail. let me define what i mean when i speak of too big to fail. the dallas definition is financial firms whose owners managers and customers believe themselves to be exempt from the process of bankruptcy and what trump called creative destruction. such firms capture the financial upside of their actions but they largely avoid payments for actions gone wrong. bankruptcy and closure. in violation of the one of the basic tenets of americans have capitalism. such firms enjoy subsidies relative to their non-two potato competitors and less likely to create a risk protected by the presumption that thinks of busy is highly unlikely to obtain. the phenomena of the too big to fail is a result of a implicit but widely taken for granted government sanctioned policy of coming to the aid of the owners and managers and the creditors of a financial institution
deemed to be so large and so interconnected and complex that its failure could substantially damage the financial system. the systemically important financial institutions. by reducing a too big to fail firms exposure to loss from excessive risk-taking such policies undermined the discipline of market forces normally in decision-making. the reduction of market discipline has been further eroded by the extension of the federal safety net beyond commercial banks to their non-bank affiliates. more for industry consolidation fostered by subsidize growth during the crisis encouraged outright by the federal government acquisitions of merrill and bear stearns in washington mutual and wachovia further perpetuated and large the way to the financial firms needed to big to fail or systemic important. the net result is reducing competition in lending. dodd-frank does not do enough to
constrain the behemoth banks it manages. indeed given its complex of -- complexity it and wittingly exacerbates them. andrew haldane the highly respected member of the bank of england address this in a meeting in jackson hole the summer. in a very witty speech he titled the dog and frisbee and here are some choice passages from that noteworthy speech. alt-a notes regulators quote efforts to the catch the frisbee continuous -- escalate. ever larger litters have not improved the watchdogs frisbee catching abilities. abilities. after all, no regulator had the foresight to predict the financial crisis although some have exhibited supernatural powers of hindsight. so what is the secret of the watchdogs failure he asks and he answers come for the answer is
simple but rather it is complexity. complex regulation might not just be costly and cumbersome but suboptimal. in financial regulation less may be more. and listening to him speak i was reminded of the french prime minister clemons great quip as the president presented as 14 points. he said why 14? god did it in 10. [laughter] well, we only had 14 points of regulation to contend with today haldane does that dot comes against a background of escalation of financial regulation. he points out that in 1986 when we called call reports the reports are received from bank holding companies covered 547 columns but excel. by 1999, 1208 columns and 271 columns reporting. fortunately he added riley
expanded sufficiently to capture those increases. though this chronic complex reporting fails to prevent the detention of the seeds of the debacle of 2007 in 2009, dodd-frank has layered on copious amounts of complexity. the legislation has 16 titles in france 849 pages. its bonds to use haldane's term letter upon better off regulators and reflation. more than 800800 pages of regulations that party been proposed and the process is not yet done. in his speech how they noted conservatively in my field that a survey of the federal register showed complying with these new rules require 2,260,231 labor hours each year. he added and i quote of course costs of this bigotry edifice would be considered small to be
delivered modest improvements to a regulators -- regulators. it includes modern finance is complex and perhaps too complex. regulation of modern finance is complex and almost certainly too complex. that configuration smiled -- spells trouble is you do not fight fire with fire and did not fight complexity with complexity the situation requires a realtor in response grounded in simplicity not complexity. delivering that would require an about turn. the dallas federal reserve's proposal offers an about turn and way to amend the flaws in dodd-frank. i will speak of it this evening. it defines simplicity with complexity and eliminates the mom boat jumbo ineffective costly complexity of dodd-frank and if not it would be especially helpful for not too big to fail banks to the
financial system. our proposals would release release small thanks unnecessary burdens arising from dodd-frank and unfairly penalizes them. our proposal would effectively level a playing field for all thinking organizations in the country and provide the best protection for taxing citizens. in a nutshell we recommend the dallas bank a too big to fail institutions be restructured into multiple business entities. only the resulting downside commercial operating would benefit from the safety net of the federal discount deposit insurance or from access to the federal reserve discount window. now it's important to evaluate this against an understanding of the landscape of banking today to understand our proposal. so here is a little charge and what it tells you is the following. as of the third order of 2012,
there approximately 5600 commercial banking organizations in the united states. the hope of these roughly 5500, 5500 work hit community banks of less than 129. these organization provide 90.6% of all thanks but only 12% of the industry's assets. another group bringing 70 banking organizations, the green pie slice their between 10 and $250 billion account for 1.2% of banks. they control 90% of the insures shoes assets. the remaining group, been megabanks assets between $250,000,000,002.3 trillion is made up of 12 institutions. these dozen behemoth account for roughly a 0.2% of all thanks but they hold 69% of all the assets in the industry.
the 12 institutions presently account for 69% of total industry assets to be considered too big to fail because of the threat they could post to the financial system and the economy should one or more than get into trouble. by contrast should any of the other 99.8% of banking institutions get into trouble they most likely would be handled with private sector ownership changes and minimal government intervention. how and why does this work for 99.8% but not for the other .2%? the answer to this question helps to consider the sources of the regular tram market discipline imposed on each of these groups of banks i'm going to show you a slide that looks at two dimensions of revelatory discipline. central closure of institution and the effectiveness of the pressure on bank management practices. and it's summarized in this slide behind as they speak. if you look across line one is clear that community banks are subject to considerable
regulatory shareholder discipline. they can and they do fail. the last two years the fdic has built a reputation for regulators carrying out trump haters concept of destruction by taking over small thanks on a friday evening and reopening them to new owners on a monday morning. on friday and out on monday. owners and managers of community banks heat suggestiosuggestio ends to limit raised. committee banks often have few significant shareholders who have a considerable portion of their wealth inside that institution. consequently they exert substantial control both the favor of management and his risk and potential closer matters now. their money is at risk. these community banks drive the bulk of their funding from federally insured deposits are good they are simple right of an complex in their capital structure. they really have unsecured
creditors. market discipline. over management practices primarily exerted through the limited number of shareholders. of the three groups shown on the slide to 70 regional and undersized thinking organizations are subject to a broader range of market discipline. by committee banks these institutions are not exempt from the bankruptcy process. they can and they do fail but given their size and complexity and generally larger geographic footprint the ownership transfer process cannot be accomplished over weekend. in practice managers of these institutions are nonetheless aware of the downside consequence of risk taken by bad management. uninsured depositors and unsecured creditors are also aware of there and protected status in the event that the institution experiences financial difficulties. midsize banking institutions receive a good dose of external
discipline from both supervisors and market based signals. on the other hand, the megabanks too big to fill megabanks depicted on line 33 see far too regulatory and market discipline. for all intensive purposes we believe the too big to fail banks have not been allowed to fail outright. knowing that the management of these banks can't intuit large extent do choose to resist the guidance of the bank supervisors efforts to impose regulatory discipline. and for the too big to fail banks the force of market discipline by shareholders and unsecured creditors are limited. let me first walk you through the discipline for shareholders. we have millions of shareholders and it dilutes the shareholders ability up to big to fail banks from pursuing corporate management but not necessarily
for shareholders. is learned as we learned during the crisis at first information on pork financial performance office available but too late for credit default swaps to have an impact on management failure. for example during the financial crisis shares in the largest two bank holding companies, two of the largest too big to fail bank open companies as we know declined by 95% from their peak prices and their credit default swaps went haywire. even though the decisions that led to that market reaction occurred well ahead of them. the rating agencies also eventually react. in keeping with their tendency to be reactive rather than proactive. but the damage from the excessive risk-taking had already been done and after the crisis, judging from the behavior of many but not all of the largest bankrolling companies with limited exception efforts by shareholders of these
institutions to meaningfully influence management compensation practices or clawback were paid in compensation were slowing coming. so so much for shareholders plan to check on too big to fail banks. and portly too big to fail banks also do not face much extra notes and from their unsecured editors and important facet to big to fail as is the funding source for megabanks extend way beyond their insured deposits. my mention of credit default swaps. the largest banks notches too big to fail banks fund themselves with a wide range of liabilities. these include large negotiable cds which often exceed the fdic insurance limit federal funds purchased from other banks all of which are uninsured and subordinated notes and bonds generally insecure. it's not unusual for uninsured liabilities to comprise of over
half of the liabilities of too big liabilities of two biggest institutions. of market discipline were to be imposed on on these in situations when what expected to come from unsecured uninsured depositors, cut creditors and debt holders. but, too big to fail status exerts what we call a perverse market discipline on the risk-taking activities of these banks. unsecured creditors recognize the government guarantee that they have on their liabilities and as result in secure depositors and creditors offer their funds at a lower cost to too big to fail banks in midsize and regional banks that face failure. this too big to fail subsidy is quite large and it has risen, not declined following the recent financial crisis. recent estimates by the bank of international settlements for examples suggest that the implicit government guarantee provides the largest u.s. bank holding companies with an average credit rating uplift of more than two notches, thereby
lowering their efforts funding cost a full percentage point relative to its small competitors. my friend of the bank of england estimates the too big to fail local subsidy to be roughly $300 billion per year for for the 29th global institutions identified by the financial stability board as quote systemically important. to put that $300 billion in perspective, it's an annual subsidy, leos holding companies reported 2011 earnings of -- add to that the complexity of too big to fail banks. here's the basic organization chart or diagram for typical complex financial holding company. to simplify a complex structure one might consider all the operations of the commercial banking operation that little box at the bottom left over my shoulder, all other operations are what we could call shadow banking affiliates including any
special investment vehicles known as siv in the industry of commercial banks. now consider this next table. it gives you a sense of the size and scope of some of the five largest bank holding companies, noting their non-deposit liabilities are in the millions of dollars in the number of their total subsidiaries in countries of operation according to the financial stability oversight counsel. for perspective, let's consider the sad case of lehman brothers. the resolution of lehman is not yet over and get lehman operated a mere 209 subsidiaries according to their last think a filing. only 21 companies with liabilities near $619 billion. by these metrics lehman was a small player compared to the big five. lehman brothers was too big for a private sector solution to be found. what can we infer from the big
five on the table over my shoulder? well, dodd-frank addresses this concern under the liquidation authority provisions of the act and systemically important financial would receive debtor financing from the u.s. treasury of the period during which its operations in to be stabilized. by our few this is quasi-nationalization. endows the considered government ownership of our financial institutions human temporary basis to be a clear distortion of american capitalist principles. of course an alternative would be to have another systemically important institution acquired the failed institutions. we have party been down that road. all it does is compound the problem and expanding the risk imposed by larger surviving behemoth organizations. in addition perfect when the practice of arranging shotgun
marriages between giants at taxpayer expense worsens the funding disadvantage of the 99.8% remaining small and regional banks. merging large institutions as a form of discrimination in our field. it favors in will be an dangerous to be the fail banks that were more focused on the discipline banks. the approach of the dallas fed that i've explained earlier either expand the reach of government nor further handicaps the 99.8% of community and regional banks nor does it fight complexity with complexity. is simply calls for reshaping too big to fail financial institutions into smaller less complex institutions that are economically viable, profitable, competitively able to attract financial capital and talent and are besides complexity and scope brick victorian market discipline could restrain the sense of risk-taking. our proposal is simple.
it's easy to understand. it can be accomplished with minimum statutory modification. it can be implemented with as little government intervention as possible. calls for sharon that the federal safety back the federal safety net as they said earlier to apply only to basic traditional commercial banking. .. a
they need to be downsized in the structures of a safety net supported banking part of the holding company can be market forces. there were likely to be restrictions or prohibitions on the ability to have assets or liabilities of the shadow banking affiliates to the banking affiliate. we saw that tape ways should not have happened. to illustrate the first occurrence of our plan, i come back to the hypothetical structure of the complex holding company. as a commercial bank subsidiary and several that are not traditional banking committees, ensuring from the security underwriting, broke aged many others operate never vast geographic regions. these are legitimate like at to operate. but not with government
guarantees. under a proposal, only the commercial bank would have access to insurance by the fdic. only the commercial bank would have windowless provided by my organization, the federal reserve. these two features of the safety that would explicitly by statute become unavailable to any shadow banking affiliate special investment vehicle or commercial bank for any obligation to the parent holding come to me. theoretically this is current product is in practice it is not benzo in practice it is not good is likely to ever be enforced. to reinforce the statute and its credibility, every customer, creditor counterparty of every shadow banking affiliate in the senior bank holding company would be required to agree to sign a new covenant as i call it, a simple disclosure statement that acknowledges unprotected status and you can read this as well as i do. it's a one paragraph.
morning, the xyz holding come any carries no deposit insurance or other federal protection guarantees. i., boyd gray fully understand connecting business with the john henry banking affiliate have no federal deposit insurance or other protection or guarantees in the investment is totally at risk. this two-part step should again to remove the implicit today to fill subsidy to bank holding companies in shadow banking operations. they have inappropriately benefited from the safety net. our proposal promotes competition in the latest market and regulatory discipline, replacing the status quo subsidizing perverse and sent us to take risk. as indicated earlier, some government intervention may be necessary to accelerate the position of effective market
discipline and bridge this practice. we believe market forces should be relied upon as much as practical. however, it is true that entrenched oligopoly forces in combination with customer inertia will likely only be overcome through government sanctioned a reorganization and restructuring entry into companies. a subsidy once given a still impossible to take away and message appears remaining to push using as little government intervention is necessary in order to realign incentives and were established in edited landscape and level the playing field. my team at the dallas fed and i are confident this simple treatment to the complex problem and risk posed by train to institutions would be the most effective treatment. think about it this way. at present come in 80.9% of all organizations are subject to sufficient regulatory or sharemarket this time to contain
risk of misbehavior that could threaten stability to financial system and american economy and global economy. s-sierra .2% are not. the very existence threatens economic and financial stability and furthermore regulators in many small banks are tied up in regulatory and legal knots in an enormous direct costs in large and costing him his the operation of our economy. your .2% if the administration and the congress can agree as recently as two weeks ago on legislation that affects the 1%. surely can process the solution that affects your .2% of the nationsbank less costly, less complex, former effect adventure and one. argue with the time has come to change the decision-making paradigm. there should be more than that to present solutions, which are
bailout for the end of the world economy as we know it. both choices are unacceptable. the next financial crisis could cost for the two years of output, which was boston would be borne by millions more u.s. taxpayers. that her highness caused must be weighed against the posted benefit of maintaining today to fill status quo and to us at the dallas fed, the remedy is obvious. you can tree into now. and too big to fail by reintroducing market forces and set of complex rules and in so doing level the playing field for all banking institutions. i'm going to close by returning to patrick henry, john's ancestor. he noted in my code is natural to man to indulge in the illusions of hope. we shut a race against the painful truth and listened to the song of that siren till she transforms us, and of quote.
while today we labor under the siren song of dodd-frank and the recent run-up in the pricing of exotic syncretic a mental accumulation of hope that this conflicts legislation will end train to and write the banking system. we shut our eyes that too big to fail represents an ongoing danger, not just financial stability, not just their competition, but the american way. the dallas federal reserve inc. offers a modest, but we believe far more effect six and dodd-frank. to put a not without cost, but is less costly than all the alternatives we've seen put forward and seriously reduces the likelihood of another horrendous and costly financial crisis. this need not be a time of awful moment. it should instead be a time of promise. turning treating pathology is too big to fail now would be a big step forward towards a more
stable financial and prosperous economic system, one that relies on fundamental is supposed of capitalism rather than regulatory complexity and increasing government intervention. i'd be happy to avoid answering any questions you might have. thank you. [applause] is one of the guys going to handle the question? >> s. first one to have to send that affidavit, i get to is the first question. you mentioned the politics, or you mentioned the restructuring that will have to take place. you point out the difficulty of politics, shakespeare, hath no fury be lake a scorn.
what are the politics on capitol hill? i gather from what you are saying this will require some congressional action the more the better politically, democratically. so what does it look like a capitol hill? >> you make a good point, boyd, which is this is not so much a regulatory issue. we operated the command of our lawmakers come us as a political issue. obviously you have to get those to make the last of the united states on your side. i view this as a win-win for both sides. i'll tell you why. the most powerful force that they were to exercise their muscle are the community bankers. follow the numbers in which they exist. thousands upon thousands of them. they not remember the legislature because it helps them get started if they knew that they sleep with come as a
trick with, what their habits are come either good or bad. it's in their interest to longer be placed at a disadvantage in terms of cost of funding by the competitive disadvantage of knowing that if they screw up, though the close server weekend. they understand this principle is this not fair. so i think there is considerable political muscle exercise here. i view this is something appealing to the left if you consider that drapey democrat republican as well as the metal. senator vitter, for example on the democratic side, senator brown and others, but also people like jim demint and others have expressed a favorable view towards this approach. i realize the latter is no longer in the senate, but i think he represents a point of view that some people might say he would not in favor of days. so i think it is appealing.
the difficulty is replacing complexity which people on capitol hill seem to love with the city. winston churchill had a great quote. he said everything agreeable, so expect disagreement here. i hope you read in the national journal this week with regard to the new nominee for the secretary of the treasury, where there's quite a long piece and is reputed favoritism for large financial institutions will not hold because he's a capable individual and i hope he does his job. so i believe he might have support in the executive, but the support really has to come from the congress. they make the laws. they have created this massive thing called dodd-frank, which we are only part weaker in terms
of interpreting and figuring out how to work. and i think it's much more appealing and i believe that the community bankers support will be fully supported on this issue. this is something we have been bird dogging, just to go back to the litter references and i think it's gaining momentum going. but it will not be easy. as i said earlier, is benefiting, lawyers and bureaucrats. john. [inaudible] i am half australian, this is water. yes, sir. >> i'm rubber weisner with public citizen. thank you for leading us on this. i have a two-part question, maybe it's two questions disguised as one.
you know better than me barney frank and chris god we say we dealt with too big to fail and they meant it. as you're saying as regulators we really mean it and that's not sufficient to convince either bankers are markets. so i'm curious the part you didn't emphasize, but that drug. that's the plan for government intervention to separate the institution and what your thoughts are about that. second component of the question is your thoughts on the emerging problem of too big to jail. >> besser expression not mind for the media. >> on the record he set it. with special attention to the hsbc with a deferred agreement with the company they allege was facilitating drug trafficking and terrorist activity appeared
relatively to prosecute the company with the two systemic risk in great danger for the world economy. in that way, did it seem logical if a prosecutor makes the decision based on conversation with regulators said they should be a de facto follow-up that we can't prosecute them for engaging activity that they now should not be at their current form and current size. >> the second question appears to be escaping, so i won't answer it. the man for first question. as i recall, senator dodd is now spending time in hollywood and maybe possibly frank is no longer in the congress. it is an interesting question. how do you undo some of the taken so much time to put together? i got a little distracted there. what is the legislative process and how we get it done, was such a question?
[inaudible] >> the markets regarding indicated a taste for this. since we first published that article that i referred to, we have received enormous support from what made morgan stanley today the discovery transaction from some of the top regional bankers in the country like tom frost is a giant in his dream texas and nationally for mr. stevens on arkansas into my great surprise and i'm still scratching my head on this one, the fellow they started it all as citigroup. so i do see them out pouring of support for this effort and the real question is, how do you get the members by legislature that is so much to worry about right now to focus on this issue? i think it's important for them to understand this is part of the problem as to why we have
not recovered as quickly as possible. i refer to that of passing. i've written a great deal about it. but it's pretty simple but if you're a manager of a large institution and you have a massive portion of the industry's assets in your preoccupied with the issues you mentioned and inferred, it's hard to focus on your business. you become too complex and too large to manage and there's an issue of scale. so i would submit and i have submitted in everett about this a great deal, hunting is written about it, simon johnson, a great scholar has written about it and others, that what has happened is one of the reasons we have not clicked as quickly as possible and recovering from the crisis is because the transition mechanism for monetary policy is combed out. think of it as sludge on the motor of your ancient. it's hard to get pistons to move.
we provide the fuel to central bank. it has to be transmitted into the economy to me not only have to inducer and sent people to step on the accelerator to create more jobs, that's a matter of having to write laws, regulations, tax incentives and so on, that has to be transmitted through the banking system and the sphinx in such deep trouble in control so much of the asset haven't focused on other things. so they're interfering with the effectiveness of accommodated monetary policy. if you get people to understand this is hurting job creation in the district, think you have more political support. i believe the support is gaining ground. it's not just a question of fairness. it is a question of efficacy and i believe it's beginning to gain ground. >> you look at the poker rule, which is -- did you say incredibly complex?
>> people on the talented people to want to support this effort. i take that simple language i had, it takes a sixth grader to write that. and naming it not doable. i'll so. >> thank you for being with us this evening. i met kitsch from university of virginia and i really would like to give you the opportunity to clarify the proposal but i gather that dallas had to put on its website tomorrow and i look forward to analyzing and writing. the problems are discussing i've commonly heard remedies of following the classical approach and separating it to descend the commercial bank, the details seem to be a second order of complexity. but isolate commercial banker dvd from everything else.
this section is simply to put a size cat commercial banks. i've heard the figure of 50 billion as a proposal. do i correctly understand you and your colleagues at the dallas fed have thought about those alternatives and reject it and in favor of the proposal you are now advancing? and if so, if i've got that correctly, can you amplify a bit on the reasons why you think they are a bad idea? >> i think the industry is changed from when i was a banker at the private bank of deposit, with the owners, which were the partners bore all the risk personally. we've gone from the old mentality prete glass-steagall, which was commercial banks for balance sheet driven. you were disciplined internally and externally to make sure you protected your deposits in your
intermediated short-term monies that longer-term loans, but it really was a balance sheet driven industry and along came my friend, sandy lyle, who i referred to earlier, it would have fellow who threw the travelers transaction figured out a way to transform back into an income statement driven business. when a hedge fund for years as a mention. i cared about what i made every year and it was a different culture than. so i'm not sure we can stop dodd-frank back into the bottle. i'm not saying -- we are not say, our teams are not say that the holding come base cannot engage another committees. we say they will not have government guarantees, not go too far from the discount window plain and simple and everyone of their clients will acknowledge the fact that money is at risk. so it's not forbidding. it doesn't formally split, but
it applies guarantees only to a specific practice, what we call commercial banking to the deposit taking entity. and to not arrest the remain extremely clear. as to the size, prohibitions, my colleague at the board of governors, dan cirillo has talked a little bit about that. i'll leave that up to him in terms of his responsibility to a limited dodd-frank. he's a thinker and quite frank about the difficulty of doing so. i'm a little reluctant given my philosophical than to artificially engineered size. i believe marcus will solve these problems if remake very clear what the rules are, but just to be honest, i have a hard time saying x is the size because i don't want to inhibit success, but i do want to
prevent fleecing the american taxpayer risk. tessera government intermediate. they decide how much money i'd take and how much he spent in making a speech and argue about that constantly. but to leave open to the american taxpayer unlimited liability for bad decisions taken in the pursuit of an income statement driven mentality seems to be unjust and un-american and that's a statement that i'm making we proposed a very simple solution where the market and imposed discipline. you see people should this has already and you saw that because a lot of the more complex organizations for a lower folks than those that have the least complex structures. so i have faith in the market. once the rules are clearly established. but the rules are hyper complex and still enormously murky. i think it's very hard to figure which end is that then i can
tell you as part of the team trying to implement under the law created by her people in the legislature and our own case, over 300 plus different aspects of dodd-frank and only be partly true, this is a very complicated process. so ours is an effort of simplicity, fairness and just making clear that the american taxpayer is only alive will for a specific practice as long as it's well performed and provides the guarantee. no more complex than not. bill. >> richard, i'm a customer and shareholder and bank of america. none of bank of america's published reports or documents give me any indication as to what their real assets and liabilities are and i suspect
that there alan sheets is laden with tier three i said representing customer commendation in the form of complex derivative transactions that allocate trillions of dollars of risk on a basis which hopefully not have engaged the bank a higher return than your commercial bank would give them. in your scheme, is there assurance that the disclaimer would apply to all counterparties to this complex story transactions so $75 trillion would be totally private-sector risk and iso depositor would not be exposed because my fear is that the bank of america will pay chicken. the same formally be the only guarantee the deposit for the commercial bank, but we can make money on these tier three transactions accommodating
customers and if the counterparties freeze, what happens? >> is exactly the purpose of the proposal. to prevent that from happening. >> will the market on wednesday sorbo exposures? >> is up to the market to unwind exposures, but you are a depositor, customer as he put it, and i don't believe either you directly or as a taxpayer should be placed at risk for derivative transactions. i used to do those. you can conduct those responsibly, but you should be guaranteed by the federal government if you make a mistake and lose. that is all were saying unassembled declaration, any six grader could read and understood to be signed by every counterparty or purchase business transactions. so bill, you nailed it. that's where chairman of this organization.
[inaudible] >> we do our best as regulators to make that possible. a report that back to my colleagues. how's that? funny thank you for that in the speech here. it's an honor to speak and i told nancy, my wife, who was not on the strip, but i said i was speaking the national press club, committee of the republic. and i mention two other people that are spoken here. i sit in your wildest dreams come and you think you're being a podium at this place, you know what the response was? her response was richard, we've been married 40 years. you don't appear in my wildest
strains. [laughter] thank you for having the air. got back [inaudible conversations] >> why did you read a book about your experience? >> is an important period of history. i felt the should be brought to bear. there've been other accounts of the crisis if that were not completely accurate in terms of what we did and what i did come a site that is important for the historical record to present our good and also currently to understand the different policy choices and options, disagreement and if we want to prevent this price is -- another crisis from happening again,
>> he'd been talking about this dream he had. tap about it for years that the american dream and then it becomes history and hit him in detroit just a few months before entire cabal, i have a dream that america will someday realize the sprint to pose in the declaration of independence. so i think he was just inspired by the moment.
this >> now, update on preparations for president to bomb his on monday. representatives of the committees, u.s. capitol police and military spoke with reporters at the national press club for a little less than an hour. >> thank you very much. thank you for the press club for posting today. this is going to be a little bit of a dance as they run through this chronologically. as you can imagine, there's different players involved in the events taking place over the next three days. my name is trained for.
that's brent colburn. i'm the communications director for the presidential and not through committee and we are involved in this doing the public events that fall outside the official swearing-in, what can talk to. in fact come as a think about this, it may make sense for us to do this not chronologically and do this in section and inside, if you want to walk through kind of vujacic site and then we'll do the jtf said. where an organization that step every 44 years to represent the president and vice presidencies. we do a lot of events like working with the jtf on the parade, the inaugural ball which we'll talk about later in some of the other events to hear about at the national day of service and the kids inaugural
children's concert. congress is equity or deals that though official swearing-in pieces and then the jtf versus the military piece, which is a huge piece of kernel will talk about from a support standpoint and obviously thank you to our law enforcement gertner's. he represents a huge law-enforcement person that helps keep us all safe over the next four or five days. but that, talk about which events would be doing. >> thanks, brian. good morning, everybody. i am mad house, press secretary for the joint congressional committee on inaugural ceremonies. our purview event is primarily everything on capitol hill on monday. as a staff involved planning various site to the case for year now, really the
inauguration preparations begin the minute the previous one and so our staff and rules committee has been hard at work for many months preparing for the and i want to talk very briefly about our team for monday and i'm also the walk-through logistical components briefly and of course i'm happy to answer additional questions at the end. the theme for this serious faith in america's future, 18 select the chairman schumer. spent a lot of time thinking about it. this year marks the 150th year since completion of the capital to what the captain of the statue of freedom placed on top. the project began in the 1850s and stopped midway through when the civil war broke out and there's a question among congress and president nestor by the could fight a civil war and finish the dome. president lincoln said if people see the capital going on, it's a sign we can the union shall go on. congress on the money, came
together, were able to complete in the midst of the civil war and senator schumer select did the theme knowing the challenges of of the country now, but if we look at what we accomplished 150 or so we can find faith that we can overcome obstacles again. this is a theme that will inform remarks about the day and some of the program materials distributed to folks to come to the capital to see the ceremonies and you see the various elements of the program. the day for a committee begins at 9:00 when the members had to the white house for coffee and tea with the president. senator mcconnell joins that group. from there is a coffee with the vice president, first lady and dr. greg as well. at about 10:00 or 10:30 depending how coffee and tea perceives. our members calm and get there a few minutes earlier had of the president.
with the president senator schumer and everyone goes into the capital, start the perception with dignitaries, president of vips announced and it proceeds for 30 minutes from the president is introduced onto the platform. senator schumer opening ceremonies of the few remarks confirm we'll talk later about how the program proceeds from there. for folks coming to the mall to watch the ceremony with a ticket on the westside, will be opening the doors at 7:00 a.m. we would price everyone to make sure they are there by 9:30 to make sure there's time for screening and everyone gets through to their ticketed place in time to see festivities. with that crowd management strategies implementing this year to improve on some of the systems in place last time to
prevent issues folks experienced the ceremonies and i'm happy to speak more to that during the q&a session. we plan for many months were caused of all sizes. we have a great system in place to make sure juan josé take it can see the ceremony. i'm happy to go into more detail during the question-and-answer session. >> thank you, matt. just to complete them on a personal look like a capital. senator schumer will welcome us as the chair and will begin what is a run-up show for the inauguration day for the ceremonial swearing-in monday. vice president biden will administer the oath of office by supreme court justice sonia sotomayor who will be the first latino anger to do this are in for president or vice president. after that, that will be done on the bible, the same bible by
vice president biden for years ago a throaty swearing-in a senator. follows aspiring and that the vice president, james taylor will sing america the beautiful after which president obama will be administered the oath of office. this will be done for years ago and his son traditionally by supreme court justice john roberts and there will be to god who sees this time. first is the the lincoln bible used by the president four years ago for initial screen and the same bible used by president lincoln when he was sworn in the first time in 1861 and that will be on top of the king family bible graciously provided for the ceremony by the king family. sees me. kelley clarkson will then see my country to sedate before poet public reacher blinker reads a poem written specifically for this occasion. we are very excited he will be joining us. he's the youngest ever and not drool appellate, and the first
latino to not hero poet. barbara lewis liana st. john's church here in mafia part will be overseen the traditional st. john's service to kickstart the the presidents' day on monday offered the benediction in the ceremony will end with beyond anything in the nationally and done. one quick thing on the bibles. these are very, very historic rivals and symbolic typos as we head into the 150th anniversary of the emancipation proclamation and the 50th anniversary to march on washington washington in 1963. but that i'd like to hand it to our partners at jtf to talk about the inaugural parade after the lunch that not discussed. >> thank you. i'm colonel michele roberts for joint task is national capital
region and our task force has responsibility for planning accord meetings military ceremonial support for not relativity. once the luncheon is complete, the president, first lady, vice president and second baby will be escorted to the east front of the capitol where they will be greeted by michael livingston, commander of the task force and he will escort them down the steps to take what is called the packs and review, essentially the presidential escort unit, comprised of approximately 380 servicemembers followed by each of the service honor guard and the u.s. army and bacillus the marine corps band and they will go past the president's location on the steps on the east front of the capitol and once they complete the pass in review, then the presidential escort
followed to the motorcade and then they start the parade route. along the parade route with approximately 2300 military personnel participating in the parade. approximately 10,000 total personnel in the parade in the way the parade is organized by five divisions in this parade. each division has led a service component. so division i will be the way the army. division two by the marines, division iii by the navy. division four by the air force in division five by a mixture of the coast guard and marines. essentially it is comprised of military bands, service elements that represent the active reserve and national guard component followed by various civilian groups that have applied to be included in the
parade. along the entire parade route is the military court on. that court on this comprised of approximately 1500 service members from services. for the dvds of the b. of approximately 800 military service members performing various functions from presidential escort to dance to the herald chump has come presidential salute battery as well as ushers and military assistance. alternate back over her. [inaudible] >> it is michele l. robert. i am army. >> kernel drivers really did not cave the jtf enough credit. it's not just the parade piece. there are people that work on
this inaugural weekend for months and in some cases a year before him preparing for whomever is the lack today of a november and as someone who participated in a natural for president obama for years ago and had absolutely no idea what we're doing, i can tell you the folks regardless of who the chair isn't folks at shennell hy daring to logistical lift on this. this march up to make sure the president imprinted on some of these events. one of the ways they do that is in the parade is the colonel mentioned along with military elements are 58 different groups, 58 different groups, flows and vehicles from all 50 states, everything from virginia military institute just across the river in virginia, which march in a number of inaugural parade of the way through one of my favorites, a group from maine
if you cyclist joining us but i believe are called, but they get the name quite right, did jim dandies. so they will pass in front of the white house. the president will stand and watch the entire pass in review and enjoy the parade along with thousands of folks who will calm down and be watching from along the parade route. one sentence, the price and it goes inside in the official his days don and he is ready for the nokia will follow. as you see her partner to it not hero ball this time. first is the commander-in-chief. it is a tradition started by george bush that we can to get us a chance to honor partners in the military and i know jtf has been included in the process for individuals attend and, mostly enlisted personnel. from our branches and a second
larger, more than happy to answer questions as they get into the q&a portion. with that, before we go to some saturday event, just want to invite partners from capitol police to talk about security, not just for monday, but the entire weekend of the committees. >> good morning, everyone. my name is officer shennell antrobus and i will definitely spell my name for you. first name is shennell. last name is spelled antrobus. and the public information officer for the united states cap will police. i'm sorry, ma'am? [inaudible]
>> that's okay. my title is public information officer -- [inaudible] >> i'm an officer. no worries. our responsibility in conjunction with a law enforcement partners is safety of those attending the inaugural ceremonies throughout the weekend. first and foremost we want everyone to enjoy the democratic process and this historic day in the event that occurs, safety is our number one priority. that said, save the security for jazz, puppet, et cetera is not carried out just by us, the partnership with law enforcement community that would include, but not limited to metropolitan police coming in to see secret service, park police and other entities with those public safety entities. the partnership we have
established to create a pretty robust, multifaceted security plan has been in the works for many months and really cannot go into detail about those -- the security plan, please know we have trained extensively to address issues that make them up during the day. thank you. >> thank you, officer. someone that did security communications before heading back to the campaign last year, during the q&a at the office about the easiest job because he'll say because he'll say i'm not a lot to say that far than anybody else. that is the main day is nota, davos folks will pay the most attention that comes to the inaugural. a couple of events, saturday's debate day. two traditions and 2009 are the first relates a national day of service that keeps inaugural children's concert. national day of service taking place across the country from
events in all 50 states in a large event on the mall. they're very excited yesterday to announce a secret much i i missed this year is the honorary cochair for the day of service. she'll appear at the mall event an incredibly large techie while it seems if you turned out 14th street. shall be joined by celebrities and performers are included eva longoria, ben folds, and i'm excited about for my time in college as well as 100 organizations from all across the capital region that the service and folks will go down and talk to people basically learn more how to serve on how they can be service moving forward. as i mentioned we will also have event in all 50 states. right now we're on track for over 2000 suppress the country and this is the first inaugural committee that is the first staff in all 50 states because his prior to the first family to see the service they to honor
the memory of martin luther king jr. but a tradition we hope will live on past this and become part of inaugurations regardless of who is in our position in four years. once we wrapped up, their summary that saturday evening, the kids inaugural children's concert started in 2009 by dr. bagman michelle obama. it is an extension of work they've done through joining forces initiative to help honor and support military families. this will take place at the convention center were both will take place. google announced details on talent in the next coming days. we put an initial list of talent appearing at both the on monday in the case concert by one or another. this is a logistical lift and we hope by friday to announce the checks will be appearing in which places. over half will be made up of military kid and a great place
to honor the sacrifice not just of men and women who serve every day, the families who support them. on tuesday, jeb in ahead bypass so we just discussed most of the traditional prayer service taking place at the national cathedral. at the first and second family will attend and again this is a tradition part of most inaugurals announcing the run of show in the next couple days, working at the cathedral on who will be there. it will be a nice way to cap off the four days of public celebration. i think that's everything they've got in terms of the run of show. i'm sure you have a number of questions. just making sure i didn't miss anything in the number of events we cover. i think that's about it. more than happy to open it up to questions at this point. again, i would be remiss if i didn't say tenet back to
partners as well as law-enforcement partners headed by capitol police and u.s. secret service have done a fantastic job working with us. >> one item of housekeeping before q&a. if i recognize you to ask a question how much he could identify yourself by name and your news organization admits that would have for questions will get to as many as we can. [inaudible] >> you mention you hope to have significant improvements in security and flow of things for monday. obviously it's important, but here were more concerned with media. last year that works best air due to 34:00 the morning should. can expect improvements? >> across the board will be improvements in the flow of every person and inadequate capital. we'll be issuing media guidelines in the next day or so that will make clear the movements that we've been
planning for many months now to accommodate individuals credentialed for the event and i'm confident those with credentials will get and then everyone should be on the same page is where folks can and can't go tomorrow so making accommodations with more details to folks interested in broadcasting from the capital on sunday around some events happening that day. we got a good thing in place and cook should get where they need to go. >> if i cannot not on the media site, the public side we have the advantage of having done this for years ago from the presidential and not zero committee site. planning steps were trying to learn from challenges from last time and one of the reasons we consolidated into the convention center on for years ago they were spread over 45 locations was to decrease the print to make this purchase to clear more manageable process for the city, law-enforcement partners and folks attending. our hope is to float in and out
of the official ceremony and other events will be smooth. there's a great online tool for the public announced earlier this week. it's a mobile web page that matt can speak more to come of it has to do with what's going on here in d.c. the pic has put out a mobile lab director to make sure people can't the country can beanball. has a lot of information that is service talked about earlier in logistical information for people attending the events. were between using twitter and other real-time social media tools, hopefully to make assist in the process as possible and put a plug-in for jtf and has a fantastic presence about their efforts online as well. this in a big leap forward in how we used and and needed to enrich this event, but also make it a smoother event. >> maria pena.
i was wondering if any of you could address how much, what the cost is for all the preparations and also in addition to the hispanic people involved with pic, any other hispanic celebrities are leaders join the celebrations? >> all dethrone the cost issue as you can imagine there in her of individual groups and organizations that go into this, so ascertaining an overall cost of status. a lot of the a lot of the same of their budgets, so something will speak to after the event occurs in the tally up some bills. in terms of the hispanic community's involvement, the president is committed to making sure ananta leaders involved that this is an event that affects america. you see in the parade a number of groups not just of the hispanic community, but others across the country making the
full list of participants to the show not just a geographic diversity, but diversity of cultures and communities the make up this country. as we mentioned the natural poet for the first time albeit hispanic american, cuban-american. the benediction given by cuban-american messier at the official events and again you'll see a number of leaders attend named. eva longoria is one of the cochairs of the presidential and not zero committee. she was a big supporter during the campaign. but when you look up on monday of the events does reflect the country. >> and to that point as far as participation in the festivities, we didn't get into the lunch, but senator schumer invited reverend luis cortes and has done a tremendous amount of work to grow the organization,
fight crime in poverty and make sure individuals across the country have access to affordable housing and quality education and in senator schumer and guided into up in the luncheon with it or recognition of his long history of service. >> and just really quick, this doesn't speak to hispanic american community, but in shuffling my nose i did miss the fact we wanted to make sure everyone knew merely evers-williams, the widow of civil rights after will also be doing the invocation to the official events and taking it off and this ties to the fact that this is an event that looks at our history as a country has said the president wants to take us as a country. that will be a nice way to open the event towards the civil rights movement, not only the president site, but the
countryside. [inaudible] rbi mark >> from our standpoint, i believe we're still finalizing the list of individuals who attend will have more permission in the coming days. traditionally the diplomatic corps has been featured on the platform. about 1600 guests on the platform including the president, his party, vice president and family guys, governors, house and senate supreme court, joint chiefs and diplomatic corps. typically it is a group north of 150 generally, but we will have more details in the coming days. >> jim haas on the scripps
television. the question is for mr. colburn. the transparency of your committee to related information that hasn't a release. did you address that. >> wasn't happy to. >> the committee according to fec regulations has to file 90 days after a macro takes places on permission on owners and again unique to the committees they carve out in relations for us. we are providing donors on a weekly basis names of those given to the committee. we believe this is a step above and beyond the transparency regulations only encourage folks to go to her website. [inaudible] >> excuse me, i said at the beginning i don't want follow-up questions. we want to give everybody a chance. yes, ma'am. >> while mr. fundraising and where you you are today? >> we haven't been discussed in
discussing the goal publicly, but we are on track to meet it. every comfort we will have the resources we need to put on all events we discussed and feel very comfortable with fund raising at this point. [inaudible] >> i'm not getting into specific numbers. >> you haven't told us anything about the president today is sunday. we talked about the official swearing-in, a couple more things. what will he do for the day of service and where is bruce springsteen? >> i don't know to a number of days. at our bruce springsteen is. at this point he's not part of the talent lineup, so i'm not sure where the bus by there will be. in terms of the president stands penne, this is a schedule much larger than their partners at the white house, so there'll be questions only they can answer. when inauguration day follows on a sunday, traditionally the public or ceremonial pieces the
following monday, what we walk here earlier with mad at myself in the kernel. that being said, he has to be sworn in junior 20th at me. they will do that in a small private ceremony at the white house. it will be available for the american public to see. it will be in the blue room. the president will lock in current chief justice roberts will be there to mr. the oath as well. phobias in the robinson family bible for that. this is the first lady's family bible. he would do the oath amount will be yet. will be a quick official but important ceremony. the vice president will do the same thing earlier that day. scheduling from what i understand will be up at the vice president's residence. together with immediate family. excuse me. he will be sworn in on the pipe family bible, saying his son on
date he used four years ago. in between those two is simple lena aren't too different from what lanes folks are used to seeing the president or vice president dusan veterans day. much more low-key affair, similar to the one they did four years ago will really be the two of them going to lay a wreath and mark the importance of those that have served this country and given their lives for this country as we get ready for public events on wednesday. ..
>> i apologize i said morning when it was afternoon. we cannot go into detail how many officers will be present for the inauguration. can you repeat the second question? i cannot go into that. we do have road closures in the fact i can touch base with you after words with those. >> speenine. >> with all events that have been reid train constantly to address them. with a specific threats i cannot answer that right now. but the united states capitol police and partners have trained costly to
address any issues that may come up. >> to logistical questions. credentials for roaming on the mall outside the capital what does that get you as a member of the public? how would getting off the mall across pennsylvania avenue before the parade starts? do you have to go around the capital and memorial again? >> we can get back with you on details. me have media logistics' the outset of communications. that was an issue for years ago. we can follow up with you after that and put you in
touch. >> another logistical question the best guest -- the best guess running of the ceremony start to finish? >> i can handle the ceremony portion. we expect announcements on the platform the former president to begin at about 11:00. it will take about 30 minutes. senator schumer opens the ceremony at 11:30 a.m. the president will take the oath about noon. and then the final musical act and then the upper section we will be back inside use it for the pre-program begins at 930 in the morning vips will head out at about 945 in the morning.
after the inaugural speech in the performances the president will head back inside. he takes the oath that noon and will head back inside around 12:30 p.m.. i love the idea any show that opens with chuck schumer and closes with beyonce. [laughter] but this is a more traditional parade. four years ago it was particularly long. we are keeping it at three hours but it aiming at two 1/2. but i would say this parade is different than the macy's day parade. people don't stop and do something. they will move the whole time. for media covering it
obviously the presidential escorts that goes with the limousines down pennsylvania avenue to the white house. then there is a short break before the parade begins. about 20 minutes. so the family can go inside then be positioned for the military. >> kernel you could speak to the next question best. >> as you can imagine with there is a huge logistical dance. primarily staging will happen at the pentagon parking lot. they will go through secret service screening to get people lined up in the proper formation.
everybody in the correct order. then there are logistical teams assigned to each division tasked to make sure they start at the proper time come on the correct route then was a get past the stand there is other areas designated through the parade without creating a lot tim for those behind. >> best guess of the start is 2:30 p.m.? >> about that time. >> can you talk about whether contingency plans if you wake up and there is no on the ground? >> -- snow on the ground. >> we do have a contingency
last time was president reagan's second inaugural. ceremonies are moved inside to the rotunda. the decision the joint committee and then to -- consultation inaugural committee and would make sunday afternoon so people could adjust. >> our goal is to have a go forward but we will not put anyone in harm's way. the real driver on that decision making process will be public safety. cold does not slow us down. as you saw four years ago. other than the swearing-in are just tradition's important to the first family and the country to show the transition of democracy. we would like to move forward regardless of the weather.
>> with the fund-raising issue, why the reversal of four years ago when information the amount of each donor? what decision was made to change that? could you keep the raise the money? mind standing is each one had is created brand new every four years. it is not the same one we are lucky that some have been asked to do it from last time. that is just this instance. with the sec requirement it
is our requirement to go above and beyond to add and transparency. >> over the weekend are their telephone numbers to call to check on something? you will be available to answer phone calls? >>. >> if we need to check on anything may be an arrest or demonstration fukien we call. >> i am a public information officer. [laughter] you can call me. [laughter] i will talk to you afterwards. i will get that to you. >> that is fair enough.
>> just use the resources there will be a media guide that is current as when it went to print on wednesday. there will be an online version available through the web site that is 2013p i c.or. i'd like the national and federal police departments there will be a joint information center for security issues. we will get that out but most information should be in the media guide. >> a of a number of questions when the media guide will be available week
anticipate either later today or first thing in the morning to the background information with they anticipated and projected timeline for the ceremony itself that is always subject to change but with the flow of defense media guide should be public later this afternoon or tomorrow. it is on the web site inaugural got senate got the of. >> how big of a crowd are you expecting that could come to the event? logistically from 2009? >> the short answer is we don't do crowd projections
or crowd out let's. but our expectation it is more in line with traditional a inaugurals. four years ago it was historic you get larger crowds from changes in how our from one party also the president being the first african-american and created a lot of interest. we are very excited and there is enthusiasm but this will be more in line with previous inauguration's. logistical it will be as smooth as possible. that being said redo date your patience. the weather could be called. we prepared to be a side. and work with us to make this a smooth event.
>>. >> speenine. >> cannot have a specific number but it is thousands it is one of the most well covered even some of the of world national and international significance. many apply for credentials brough we do our best to accommodate those. we want this to be as public as possible that we can join as a symbol what this country is about the. >> there is a lot of interest how many tickets were made available to the general public sometimes he see this but didn't give
give-- her -- percentage? >> obviously a certain percentage were given to the general public for purchase. that is unique to obama traditionally there is not. it is a chance to say thank you including staff members and those that contributed to the president's campaign made a major tickets were made available for purchase to the volunteers to allow them to participate. the commander-in-chief balt started by george to be bush and obama thought we should continue it is his favorite part of the weekend. twice the size of last time. and our forces will attend this free of charge we wish
we had more tickets we have done the best we can to strike a balance with the size of the event and size of the tickets. >> is there anybody that has not asked a question? >> you mentioned the concert have the of the audience is military kids? >> it is a ticketed events majority military families. there will be parents, armed forces, we can get you details. it is also the of washington d.c. school kids those are over initiatives over the last four years. it is ticketed events at the convention center. but free of charge to the
d.c. school kids and military families. >> on the inaugural ball how many people will be attending that? it was called open press. what does that mean? i thought we had to have secret service credentials to cover that. >> that the vernacular means you could apply for credential, we give them out based on a space basis. there will be a full riser. we don't have the numbers yet. we will use as much capacity as available. last time we had to end this time we have to.
six were posted just at the convention center. the main reason we learned last time by spreading out talent we could not program the way we wanted. of you want to one wall you would see one or two packs but now we can have a full program. and if you are there you get a much richer experience and help us with the crowd flowed issue. >> all of these events is standard procedure. everything has to be credential for security reasons. >> the panel has agreed to stay in the answer questions in formally after the news conference. i want to thank the national press club for coming during
such a busy week for these individuals in those the have joined us at this press conference. thank you. [inaudible conversations] >> the greatest honor history can bestow is the title of peacemaker. this honor now beckons america. of the chance to help lead the world at last out of the valley of turmoil and on to the high ground of peace that man has dreamed of since the dawn of civilization. >> we must embark on a new program with the benefits of scientific advances and improvement and growth of underdeveloped areas.
president, dist inguished members of the legislature, honorable justices of the nevada supreme court, a constitutional officers, a senator heller and honored guests and my fellow nevada is. for nearly 150 ears governors before me have stood in front of this body and deliver the state of the state address. the personal delivery of biennial messages they honored tradition. i am proud to be here tonight to continue this tradition along with my wife, the first lady, kathleen, and my three children. thank you for your love and support. [applause]
i want to take a moment and pause to remember to extraordinary nevadans both i had the honor to serve west first, a gene to and tired -- devoted her entire life as a mother, a schoolteacher and state legislator. her son is with us tonight to. tick, nevada will not soon forget your mother or her service. [applause] and our friend senator -- who's served with honor and distinction for over four decades.
his legacy is a stirring reminder for those in public service, there are no barriers to what can be accomplished if we summon the will to work together. i am particularly pleased and honored his wife could be with us tonight. [applause] two years ago we gathered in a different time, under different circumstances, as they stood before you that evening our state was reeling from the ravages of the great recession. nevada led the nation unemployment, housing for closures, personal bankruptcies. state revenue projections had dropped dramatically in reface budget cuts in every category.
that evening i asked the nevada families to embrace a fundamental course correction, leave behind the limits of the past and consider the case of the state's future and new, the challenges of the moment were too complex to resort to partisanship but demanded we resolve to work together to meet the challenges of the 21st century. leros to the occasion. in the final days of the 76th legislative session may could kraft and work together a bipartisan compromise that led to a balanced budget. important education reforms in the development effort to. it created the foundation of the progress of the last two years. progress that every nevadans can be proud of.
well last appearance was preceded with declined my parents tonight has been preceded by a period of growth yes. gross. we are emerging from the worst economic crisis of our generation. although it remains unacceptably high the low end seiche -- unemployment is lower than three years and falling faster than almost every other state in the nation. [applause] state revenues are growing again because our economy is growing again. over the last 24 months nevada businesses have created almost 30,000 new jobs. [applause]
yes, the last two years have been a success story. not fully realized, but undeniably on track. tonight, ladies and gentlemen,, i can confidently report to the people of nevada at the state of the state grow stronger every day. [applause] now we stand at the threshold of another legislative session. 120 days of decisions to shape the future of our great state. we must make immediate decisions. a budget, pressing issues of the day, that is only part of the task before us. our greater challenge is helping nevada that is still on the horizon that awaits
us in the future. not too far as but enough to consider where we could be. i want us to contemplate a journey that takes us to the of the nevada and agree that what we find must be the best that it can be. traveling with us are the children whose faces you see on the screen behind me. they're all members of the graduating class 2023. they are second graders today. it is my hope the faces of these children will inspire us as you would get short and long-term realities of our state. two years ago we began laying the foundation for improved education to a critical victory