tv Book Discussion on The Real Crash CSPAN September 5, 2014 2:08am-2:59am EDT
are reduced crime. common sense gun-control laws tatami wind. and that is not part of this. the centers for disease control, government agency cannot find one that reduced crime. harvard university, not in exactly a bastion of conservative thought to the same study. number two, there is no correlation between gun ownership and gun crime. what i mean by that is war guns in civilian hands. there is no increase in gun crime. less guns? why? there is adhered less gun ownership. half-hour american houses have
begun. however, gun control, gun crime has gone down every year for the past 20 years to the point that gun murders are down 50% in the past 20 years. you talk about people who were shopped : down 70% a news so damn crime is like this. it is not actually accurate to say morgan's lead to more crime. however, the rescue organization polled this question. do you think and crime is up, the same, or down. nine out of ten americans said gun crime -- gun murders, gun killing is up. so that means there is only one out of ten people and the country that knows that gun murders are down. so why is that? well, people don't have these basic thoughts which is what i am trying to do.
and the third major plot -- the first one is that no gun control reduces crime. no connection between high gun ownership and more crime. the third one goes to what i were reading about. has not increased pyridium seen on more cable news especially covering these things. this study. mess shooting. for more people on a public place. the covers is increasing. we are -- the stunt -- gun-control issue said that would do it. android to do it with or without congress. it is going to be accomplished.
$50 million. the has now taken this group and made it is front group. he is finding it. 2014, 2016. what people want for their gun-control law. what i found, where i come prom in this book and my personal -- as i said to you, if i came to three years ago, i never shot a gun, i would now. for me it is not about the gun. is about meyer right as an american of the constitution. my rights have been taken away. this is where i'm coming from. god give us the right to defend ourself. if a dangerous edison or entering the government. a founding father said that those rights cannot be infringed . i generally did not, self pro-gun. i describe myself as per second
amendment. a gun is just a tool. thank you. >> thank you. right down here. >> hi. i am olivia thomas from texas. you were talking about second amendment rights and all that. my dad and tigers shooting almost every other weekend together, something we have always done. we have a friend who lives outside of city property. we go and should place. they're is a gun at that has come up set to ban semi-automatic weapons which is a type of rifle i have been shooting since i was for. >> the only kind in civilian hands. >> yes. i was just wondering your
thoughts on the issue of whether that is actually something that potentially could be passed? >> of course a lot of language. semiautomatics is basically what we all have except for revolvers you pull the trigger once in a fire is one shot. the military uses fully automatic, the police have them. he pull the trigger and the fires forever. they are never used in crime.
for half a year ago of fund-raisers said we have to get semi -- i mean fully automatic guns off our streets. he corrected himself. there are no fully automatic weapons on the streets except for the was a police have. semi-automatic to offer the people understand the firearms is it is used. >> even if it did you get the supreme court. >> lincoln as a question. >> i. when can from st. louis missouri was wondering if you could comment on those people who would say that the second amendment has outlived its usefulness. protecting us from the
government. and because of that qualifier are right to bear arms is just on feasible. if you could respond. >> stevens said that the supreme court was landmark. they're pretty boring. this one is interesting. if you get a chance to read it. it's easy to act understand and interesting. a lot of people think the part about the second amendment of the militia means that the again controls malicious. they explained. it has a clause. the concept. and they went by the documents. what they were saying both them what their role in with their thinking was that they had just
come out from under king george and a charity and wanted to make sure that no government ever had that much power again. the deterrent is having civilian ownership. so i cannot see ever possibly getting through the senate. would never get ratified. >> it's pretty easy to get a gun in michigan. it is very hard to carry or even have a gun would you. you can have a gun anywhere. an exception of state law. would you comment on what could
be physically done? >> well, i hear about this a lot. such a wide range on this issue. if you have a concealed carry permit. a campus says you can't have it. the people are pro second amendment or pro-gun. virginia tech. you want to have a way to defend yourselves. gun free zones of the most dangerous places. more rare obviously. but james said that eight movie theaters between his apartment and the one that he chose the people in colorado were allowed to use and carry guns. murderers are crazy, but they are not going to go somewhere that they cannot do damage. fort hood, the school shooting. essentially gun-free zones. i understand the movement. i don't want to live in a known
gun free zone, especially on a college campus. it is a large place. you know, the flip side of that as people say, well, kids a tramp -- drinking on campus. obviously gun ownership number-one is a huge responsibility. it is one that no one should take lightly. if you are gone on you have to be responsible at all times, when it is on you, when it is not new. if it is loaded, not luggage. so if a person takes on that responsibility and they did not allow concealed carry, the right to bear arms is not recognized with the rest of you probably in your state can get a concealed carry permit. go through the background check and training and being responsible enough, i don't see why you should not be allowed to carry it on college campuses. >> a question over here.
>> jordan henry from missouri. how do you suggest that we come at the disparity in ideology between bigger cities where there is little to no gun exposure to the majority of people verses small towns like my own where we bring our gun collections to church and show off to each other. >> right. really jeff koch i was in so many different places. the culture of america, it's so different. every gun control law the toughest gun control laws in the country. new york has gone up again. again, i can say to you because i don't know for a fact that gun-control -- that gun-control
increases crime. a lot of people believe that there is no deterrence. frankly i do believe that. someone is going to rob you. that is my experience. they're not going to walk into a house in virginia and rub it. they're from virginia. the criminals all have guns. you know, it is unbelievable, the people live understand that. >> if you are not allowed to take the gun out of the house of the go to the reins to practice? >> transport. under federal law you can take again anyway you can legally carry i can carry again at the
shooting range. take it come on loaded. that's it. >> any other questions? >> hope you don't get. >> im kelley. i have from florida. something very controversial. if you think is the capitalization by the media. >> totally out of control with the martin trial. stand your ground lost to florida and initiated the first one. he did not have to back off.
back to the criminal. physically under. so it -- if you watch the media there was a stand your ground law. pretty simple. if you are a tax you can fight back. you know, of course. in florida put into law again. if you are in your home and someone comes in i have the right to assume that their there to cause with bodily harm or death and shoot. he don't have to be a victim. but a lot of misconception out there. >> any other questions? >> thank you very much. >> thank you
>> hos host of the peter schiff show. this event was hosted at freedomfest in las vegas. >> good afternoon. peter schiff has spoken at freedomfest many times and you are leer here to listen to him and not be. it is as a great pleasure for me to work with peter at euro pacific capital and i say it is as a great pleasure for three main reasons. one is that peter has the ability to see through the
smoking mirrors of government propaganda and government crooked statistic and the supportive media of the establishme establishment. seeing through the smoke and mirrors peter gets what is happening in the world in my opinion. secondally, peter has a great ability to articulate very complex issues in a simple way so that people can really understand them. and he has the courage to tell the truth and in today's world telling the truth does take courage. now, peter not only sees what is going on in my opinion but he
offers real solutions. both for you and for me as investors and survivors and also for our country. so ladies and gentlemen, it is as a great pleasure and privilege for me to introduce to you chief executive officer of euro pacific capital and great speaker mr. peter schiff. >> thanks, everybody for coming and thanks john for introducing me. hopefully i can make it through my presentation. i was loosing my voice. i was out a little late in las vegas and i am not as young as i used to be. i was at the very first freedomfest and it was blossomed into a great event despite the
fact every year i come we have less freedom to be festive about. what i like to talk about is what we can do to preserve what freedom we have left with respect to our financial assets and our portfolios. i think many americans are going to find out why they are loosing their liberties and their wealth especially if that wealth c concist of corporate bonds and municiple bonds. they going to lose significant value. nominal value is harder to know. but i think that is immaterial. what matters is the purchasing
power that the assets conw pcon. and i say i don't know nominal because i don't know how much they are going to print. i think it is going to be a record and she is going to eclipse the money printing of the previous two combined. i don't know what the dollar will buy. so i think the most important thing from investors is to be aware of what is going to happen and make sure your financial assets are invested in the appropriate manner to come through this. and i think even more importantly then maybe even preserving the wealth for yourself and for your family but i do believe if we are going to
try to be active personally in helping to repair and rebuild the country and helping to make sure that after this crisis, that is coming, and i will get to that and it will be much worse in just about every respect then 2008, it is going to be the worst economic period i think in the united states bar none including the great depression. it will not be as bad as the civil war or something like that. but as far as an economic event it is going to be bad for investors. the majority of the investors will see it is going to be very bad. but i think the only opportunity, this silver lining to that cloud is the opportunity to really get the country back
in the right direction. see the problem is all of these solutions to the problems that we have and there are solutions but they are not politically viable given the democratic state we now unfortunately find ourselves living in. a lot of the safe guards that our founders put in place to protect us from democracy no longer exist. so unfortunately economic policy is made based on whatever the population wants to support. and unfortunately very few americans really even understand what needs to be done including a lot of the members of congress. but people are not going to vote for the right thing. look how many people are in favor favor of minimum wage. even among economist at
universities and many have noble prizes and still believe minimum wage is a good idea. that is the level of understanding even among the brightest so how do you expect the average american voter who has been brainwashed in government schools his entire life to understand anything. so they are not going to vote for real solutions and the politici politicians have no impetus to try to deliver any kind of bad news to the voters. they don't have any will to ask the voters to swallow any medicine that might cure the economy because it is going to taste bad. but i think a complete economic collapse which unfortunately is coming might provide the motivation to finally do something. hopefully people in this room, if you can preserve your wealth, will be able to be active in that movement and trying to get americans to understand that the
source of the problems that they are going to be living through is not capitalism or the free market or greed or the evils of capitalism. unchecked capitalism. it isn't because we didn't have enough government and sufficient regulation to rein in the wild capitalist. the problems are all going to be and have been created by government and there are things that the government does supposedly to protect us. those are the programs, the taxes, the regulations and spending that is the source of the problem. and we need people to be able to art
articul articulate that the government and have a second american revolution. it will not be easy. but if people have financial wealth and can fund the candidates with the right messages and organizations that working towards those goals. we have passed out a bunch of index cards. if you don't have one, let one of the brokers know. there a few from the office of your specific capital. we have six offices. make sure to fill them out so we can get a hold of you and talk about the strategy. if you get on my mailing list we put out news letters and put out a lot and i write and john brown writes. i talk, if anything does want listen to my radio show, i am doing a show now every week day from 10 a.m. to noon or most weekdays unless i am travelling
or something. but you can listen to it. it is shiftradio.com. i said i have six offices and my asset management company which handled all of my accounts which i added about 4-5 years ago. we are a broker dealer and advisor and i moved by management company from california to puerto rico. my tax rate is 50% in california and 4% in puerto rico. i will be at my booth with questions about this. i have not personally moved there yet. four of my employees have moved there and are managing our
clients' money just as effectively from san juan as they did from new port beach but we are not giving as much of the income to the government. we get to keep it. it is an interesting place if you are looking for freedom puerto rico is where you will find it. at least if you define freedom to keep what you earn. the capital gains tax is zero and zero on divdeneds and if you structure it correctly you are only paying a 4% tax. no federal taxes at all. just 4% to the government of the commonwealth of puerto rico. i will be at my booth and we have the book "how an economy grows and why it crashes" it is as a great book. i have a few copies i am signing
and i am doing a signing later today with the bookstore that has my book "real crash" and that is what i want to talk about today. people ask what are you talking about the real crash. the reason i wrote that book is because after my first book came out, which was "crash proof", that book predicted the events of 2008 that we now refer to as the financial crisis of 2008. i wrote in that book about the housing bubble. why we had it. how government and the federal reserve had conspired to inflate it. how wall street went along for the ride. i wrote about how the housing market would collapse and that when it did it would be much worse than when the stock market
bubble which was a creature of government policy, not the market, but i pointed out all of the ways the housing market was so intertwined with the economy and banking system that when the housing market collapsed it would bring down the banks and cause the united states of fannie may and i forecasted the deficit would balloon to a trillion and unemployment would be above 10% and of course all of this stuff happened. so people could say, you predicted it, you wrote this book "crash proof" and we had the crash. i have to tell people we have not had the crash yet. that is not what my book was referring to. the title wasn't about that crash. that event was part of the book. but that event was more like, you know, the overture for the
opera. so a lot has to play out. when i wrote the book, what i laid out was my thesis for the economic collapse. i wrote, okay, so we will have the implosion of the housing market. if you want to see a good example of the type of force i have. i spoke about it a lot at these freedomfest but i don't think they recorded them. but look at my mortgage bankers speech i gave in 2006. it is on the internet. interestingly there were 3,000 mortgage bankers in the audience. so these guys were at the heart of the crisis and during the presentation i spoke about a hedge fund i started to short term mortgages and i explained how the market was going to empl
employ -- implode -- and out of 3,000 in attendance one called me to open up an account. and he made eight or ten times the money on that trade. these were people in the business. i urged them hedge yourself because most of you will be out of business so you might as wealth well make a little money as your main job implodes but they didn't want to prepare because people don't want to believe. but being forewarned is good. for the guy that got short subprimed was probably glad he came to the conference and heard me speak. you have to do things. you cannot just listen to a talk. you have to take action and do something in response to the
warning i am giving. when i wrote in the book, i said as a result of the big economic collapse and the bursting of the housing bubble and this big recession and all of the unemployment and the collapsing real estate prices, i said prices would drop 30-50 percent which seemed impossible at the time. and i said in response to this the government is going to try to stimulate the economy. they are going to pull out all of the stops to reflate these bubbles. they are going to print a lot of money. try to get housing prices up and stock market up and try to get everybody borrowing and spending again. and what i wrote is that was watt was going to create the real crash. it was going to be the bursting of whatever bubble the government managed to reflate to get us out of the great
inflation. the bust are in relation to the booms because the booms are where the mistakes are made. the bigger the boom the bigger the bust. this is the biggest boom of all. this is the biggest artificial boom every created by the feds. and they did it at a time where the economy was in the worst shape it has ever been. so instead of solving the problems that led to the crisis we made them all worse. despite the sunshine and all of the rosey talk that you hear from economist and wall street and the president the economy is not better. we have not recovered from anything. we are the sickest we have ever
been. we are just too drugged up on cheap money to understand the symptoms. but there are a lot of americans who are not and feel the pain of this phony recovery. and think about this. this is a recovery. if the recovery is this bad imagine the recession and imagine how bad the next recession is going to be. look at where we are starting from. we are going into recession if we are not in one. and we may be already. i think we are if you would have a more accurate reporting of inflation but the government under reports it to such a degree that sometimes it is hard to get officially to the reception. but the economic growth isn't there. and that is why the jobs are not there. they call it a jobless recovery. they are half right. it is jobless but it isn't a recovery. that is why there is no jobs. people are leaving the labor
force, earning are collapsing, people are loosing their full-time jobs and getting part-time jobs and people say this is great. we created 200,000 jobs. you look beneath the numbers and maybe we lost 500,000 jobs and got part-time jobs. but is that good news? no, it is bad news. they don't report the details. they just report the headlines. they report the unemployment rate is down. but they don't report why which is all of the people have left the workforce. so the really economy is imploding and that is why congress' popilarity is at an all-time low. this is the worst depression we have had since the great
depression. it started in december of 2007 and i was doing television interviews in december of 2007 and early 2008 saying a recession was coming and people were saying not going to happen. we were already in one. i read an article this morning on how economist don't see a recession. they have never predicted a recession ever. every recession has been a surprise to the feds. every recession has been a surprise to economist. they don't know you are in a reception it is there. it is possible we are already in one. but if not we will soon be. look where we are. normally when the recession starts the feds jack up the interest rates to 6% or so so it can cut them. but we are about to start a recession and rates are not risen. they are still at zero and they
have never been that low. every other recession we have had the feds got us out without resorting to 0%. even the housing bubble that bursted in 2008. the feds inflated that with 1% interest rates. they were only 1% for a couple years. we have had 0 for five years and they have not raised them to a quarter of a percent. why is that? i mean if this recovery is really five years old, why are we still on life support and not only do we have 0% rates the feds are printing money and monetizing the debt and saying the economy is in good shape. well then why are they doing that? it is like if you go to the doctor and the doctor says you are in great health but you are hooked up to a ventilator and eating through a tube and you say can i get out of bed and it is like no, no, no keep that
there. there is nothing wrong with you, though. obviously the economy is sick and government doesn't want to admit it. why are interest rates at 0? because that is all we can afford. we have so much debt in this country. the government has much more debt now than it did in 2008. corporati corporations have far more debt than they did. and americans haven't delivered. in fact they have no home equity. americans on paper before the financial crisis at least had home equitly to offset the debt. now they just have debt. so whether people say they have less debt, well they have a lot less wealth as well. they talk about the housing market has recovered. homeownership is at generational lows. rents are rising rapidly.
5-10 percent a year. why are home prices going up? because of private edge funds are taking money from the feds and buying up the properties. same thing with stocks. companies are borrowing money and buying back their shares. their interest expense is at record-lows. everybody's interest expense. the united states government is spending less on interest on national debt than we spent when ronald reagan was president even though the debt was a tiny fraction of what it is today back then. what would happen if interest rates went up? it would be complete implosion. if interest rates went back to normal, 5%, the government wouldn't be able to pay the interest on the bonds they have sold. they would have to default. if the national debt was $20
trillion. it is close to $17.5 and that is the tip of the iceberg and doesn't include the big bucket items and unfunded liabilities. 1.2 trillion in student loans. the government guarantees the debt but it isn't part of the national debt. and even though the students are not good for the money. these guys have been spending six years majoring in socialology and borrow money to pay for it. they are not going to pay that. but 20 trillion and interest rates were 5% that would be a trillion a year. the government is spending a quarter of that. 250 billion a year on interest. where would the government get the extra 750 billion a year? every year. there is no place to get that.
we don't have that money. all of the debt is short term and rolls over. what would happen the housing market if the interest rates go up? the housing market will implode again. this could be a bigger real estate claps collapse than last time. the banks didn't want them to sell because they don't want the property or foreclose so people stayed in their home and lived mortgage payment-free. but when you have private equitly like black stone and they want to liquidate they will blow outf the properties. they don't need anybody's permission. and they don't live in them. a lot of the places are vacant anyway. what is going to happen to the
banks then? all of the banks that were too big to fail are now even bigger. and so next time they will fail. and remember, if the federal reserve is tightening and raising interest rates, no body can get bailed out. the only way there can be bailouts is if the fed is easing. the fed has to be printing money. if they are tightening and racing interest rates and banks fail no one is there to bail them out. congress doesn't have the money they have to get it from the feds but the federis are taking money from the banking system so the banks fail and when that happens the shareholders are going to lose money, the bond holders going to lose and the depositors are going to lose. the fdic only has money if they get it from the feds. so if we have an increase in interest rates, the banks would fail and the government would have to default on its debt and
the country will implodes. that is why the federal reserves can talk about raising interest rates in the future but they are never going to do it. when the feds first did qe and said it was temporary i said no it isn't. they will do it again i said. and they did do it again. i had qe2 and i said there is going to be more qe's than rocky movies. it is never going to end. it can't end because it can't work. whenever the federal reserve does qualitative easing they worsen the problem. so the more they do the more they have to do. the more drugs they give to the economy the more drugs the economy needs to stay high. i said it was like a monetary roach motel. once you start it, you can never end it. every time the feds tried to end
it in the past they had to come back. they tried to take away the mor phene and heroin. they saw the patient going into the seizures and said they need more. to think the fed can stop this and you can take away all of the artificial props beneath the economy and somehow the economy is going to continue. i heard this. people say the feds put training wheels on the bicycle. and now they can wheels off. they didn't put on training wheels. the only wheels this bike has is qe. that is it. you take off the wheel and the bike falls over. we need to do that actually. because the problem no one wants to acknowledge is the bike is cycling toward the edge of a have to take off the wheels or else we go over the cliff.
it is full speed ahead. but you cannot end qe. a joke i made to describe it and people say well they can do it but it is going to be difficult. it isn't going to be easy they say. but it isn't difficult. it is impossible. the feds can't even do things that are difficult. and they are not going to start with this. when people say the feds, this worked, qe worked. you don't know it worked until you stop. it is like giving them credit and it is like you don't say congrats to the pilot on the take off. let's see them land. ben bernaki doesn't know how it hand. he has been making excuses for five years, six years now. he turned over the controls to another guy who doesn't know
anything about flying. maybe even less. this is the example i use. this is a difficult trick. pulling a table cloth out from under a table when you have a whole set of dishes, right? the hard trick is taking that table cloth and i thinking it and leaving the -- yanking -- the dishes. you could do it. it is probably to do it if you practice. but that is not what the fed has to do with ending qe. the feds have to yank the table out from under the cloth and leave the cloth and dishes suspended in mid air. but everybody thinks that is what they do. no body can connect the dots that we cannot afford higher interest rates or have the feds not in the bond market. how can we finance these massive deficits and they are a little lower now than they were because the government is getting extra
cash from fanny and freddie when the making profits and only sewing the seeds of future losses. they will have to give it back and then some when the loans go into default. and they are getting extra money because we are fining banks around the world and that is money the government is getting back. but this is temporary and they are getting capital gains as people are cashing in and selling out overpriced social media stocks and so the government is getting more revenue. and of course as we spend borrowed money it generates sales for companies. a lot of this revenue that the government is getting is a function of the phony economy that the stimulus helped create. take that away and let the interest rates go up and it will all go away. the tax revenue goes away, the budget deficit explodes and the
whole thing would collapse which is why they'll not do it. when they first said they will raise interest rates when unemployment is 6.5 or inflation is 2. the minute he said that it will not happen. i said if they get there they will move the goal post. and the cpi, the government's distorted version of the cost of living is up 2.1% year over year and we are above that goal post, too. and not only have they not raised interest rates they are not going to commit to when they are going to do it. maybe at the end of next year or the year after that. gwen the
the bonds that are held by private decisions for individuals by foreign central banks. they are all going to want out because if the fed is going to keep printing money indefinitely inflation is going to erode the value of all the treasuries. once people understand that, once they accept that if i hold this treasury until maturity i will lose. the government is paying me 2% a year and inflation is 4%, 5%. i'm guaranteed to lose money if i hold onto these bonds. once people realize that nobody is going to want to hold them. no individuals, no corporations no foreign central banks so what does that mean? that means the fed if it wants to keep interest rates from skyrocketing which it has to do because the economy cannot cannot survive it that is to print more money to buy it and
what happens when the fed prince more money there's even more inflation and that means bonds or even riskier had that means even the people aren't selling want to sell because inflation is even higher. so eventually if you keep doing that you destroyed the dollar. now at some point the fed is going to maybe have a decision where it could still say the currency but it's probably going to lose a lot of value for the fed is going to, even consider the unthinkable so maybe the dollars going to lose 50% of its value, 60% of its value, 70% of its value. the dollar lost 7% of its value in the 1970s and volcker did put a stop to it. he brought interest rates up to 20%. that stopped it and reagan did come in and we did have some substandard changes in the