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tv   Washington Ideas Forum - Part 1  CSPAN  October 3, 2017 6:24am-8:06am EDT

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all right. simple question. you've got one minute. i want you to redesign the u.s. healthcare system from ground up. up. what does it look like? >> so what we would do, and discipline were trying to with the healthy cities and counties challenge. we would understand the demography disease, burden, social and economic patterns of a community. we would sit okay, what does the
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system need to be like to support that? central kentucky some of the highest opioid addiction and america. we're handing out narcan. if we understand that demography and the disease burden and we can design a system that works for that community and then to live it to the community in the most efficient way possible. that's the investment. outstanding investment and then finance it. we will save money. if you think about that from the context of how we revolutionized the system, right now our governments model on healthcare at a federal level and a state-level is not big enough and not robust enough to manage the economy of healthcare which is now 17, 18% of the gdp of this country. when we run into issues were our governance models and our companies, in our governments, in our economies are not
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sufficient to govern properly, then your people saying we need a new world order because where social ecosystem. i would argue it's the exact opposite. you have to go back to communities, back local and be in the community, in the neighborhoods talking to people about what matters and do it for them, not because with some idea of the idealistic version of health and how it all out to work from a national level by pushing a button. doesn't work that way. >> what are you watching next? what you think is the very next new we should pay attention to right now? >> in healthcare? >> against. >> there is bipartisan work going on. i know that for a fact. i spent time with senators are working on it. i think that would be the next step. i think we just got to get you to sport a bipartisan solution because bipartisan solutions can be touched every year. they can be fixed in tweet because it's a joint effort for the american people. when it's not bipartisan that's when things blow up. >> all right.
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thank you very much. [applause] ♪ >> lee's welcome the mayor of washington, d.c., muriel bowser. [applause] >> good morning, everyone. it is so happy, i'm so happy to see you all here and want to thank steve clemons and walter isakson for the invitation to be with you today. i am so happy every time we have a collection of the nation's most prestigious innovators and thought leaders and business politics and media, and that you choose to meet in our fair city. i know that you wouldn't be here at this conference if you were not also committed to the things that we champion in our city, and that's innovation, inclusion and solutions. we share this commitment with
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you. since my first days as mayor of d.c., i committed our city to these big ideas as well. part of what i want you to take with you today, take to your towns and cities and all the work that you do, is just exactly who we are and what we are in washington, d.c.. and i tell people this all the time. we are not your grandfathers washington. we are more than a government town. in fact, we are a business capital that is experiencing unprecedented growth as one of the fastest-growing and most exciting local economies anywhere in this country. we are a leading city for industries in the professional services, for nonprofits, hospitality companies, technology and retail. we are moving big development projects in all areas of our city.
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on october 12 we are going to reinvigorate the potomac waterfront with the opening of the wharf. projects like walter reed and saint elizabeth's are moving forward, and we're attracting wonderful innovative tenets. and we are a thriving entrepreneurial community that's getting better and growing stronger each and every day. every month we attract about 1000 new residents to add to our 680,000 people in washington, d.c.. we have big goals for inclusion in our city as well. over half of d.c.'s workforce is made up of women and over half of its workforce is made up of people of color. we still have a long way to go in celebrating and growing our inclusion but we know that women make up just 37% of tech jobs and people of color only 28%, and we know this is a nation washington, d.c., we want to grow.
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some big projects that are been announced, for example, intech, yelp announced it would open its first east coast office just steps away from us now on seventh street. apple recently announced plans to revive the carnegie library with a world-class location. dc-based this combo confirmed plans to stay and extent of washington, d.c.. and amazon just announced that he will open its second headquarters in washington, d.c.. [applause] i was wanting to see if you were awake. because while it hasn't been announced yet, we are competing and where competing hard so you go back and tell them why d.c.? and use it is obviously d.c. have a great day. [applause] >> ladies and gentlemen, please
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welcome spencer rascoff and gillian white. [applause] >> good morning. >> good morning. >> of what is taught with kind of a bigger question, not just a how things economic of housing but i want to talk about the culture of housing and real estate. i would say about 50-60% of the cab rides i had in some of the pool writer but want to talk with real estate market, the cost of housing, when you look at television, shows about people buying homes across the globe, renovating them are incredibly popular. why is housing and real estate at the center of so much of american culture? >> its primal for starters. shelter something everybody has a need for. so it starts with emotional attachment that people have to where they live but then it quickly shift into the economic as well. it's a huge part of economy.
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for most it was a most valuable asset. 1.1.5 trillion of residential rl estate transactions a year. it's accommodation of those two and that is where we got our name, zillow plays on that. zillow, a little-known fact, zillow is zillions of pillows. that reflects the two sides of real estate and the pillow is the emotional, the right brain, where you rest your head at night and today seem like it's going up in this house. zillions is left blank, the quantitative data and the combination of those two things that is real estate and why it's so important to our society. >> i've already learned something today. we spent the better part of the past decade worrying about the housing market stressing out about it, seeing lots of negative adjectives in front of it. >> it's on fire. let me give you some stats. home values are up 7% year over year. more than half of the country is
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passed peak value. of the 100-ish million homes and use more than half are worth more than they were at the end of the bubble lucius 2007-ish peak. that peak. that having been said, home sales are slowing because there's not enough inventory. we were talking before hand, it seems like everyone has a story, evelyn is a personal story about that come have limited inventory is. limited inventory, limited supply the good demand means of values are spiking. the reason for all that is to the downturn builder stopped building. we used to have 1 million or so new homes built a year, we dropped down to two or 300,000 for a couple of years so there's a huge lack of inventory and when builder struggling to get a couple of years ago they started building at the high end. there's very, very low inventory at the low tier and midyear, that creates a lot of local crises like affordable housing here in d.c. and elsewhere because of limited inventory. >> one of solutions on incentives that you think could be put in place to create
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incentive to great that inventory kind of at the lower or the beginning and? >> the biggest governmental solution is more, controversial but more prodevelopment, more prodevelopment environment. in seattle people are constantly complaining about the lack of affordable housing as i understand they do in d.c. but then you look around seattle and there are all these trees everywhere. it's like look, if you want more affordable housing your to cut them some of the trees to build big buildings. that's the way to alleviate the housing problem but that would change the nature of seattle. more affordable housing starts with development and building or buildings. credit available is the other side of this coin, and there's no question that it's harder to get a mortgage than it was during the last peak. it is a bit of return to the pre-bubble normal. if you you can document your
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income angevin, you can basically get a mortgage. and so our view overall credit availability isn't that bad. it's just less available than the prior bubble. >> who is buying homes? >> anyone who can find out that they can afford, but millennials are buying. i think there's there's a misperception that millennials, they went to music and rent tv shows and they ride share cars. millennials are now the biggest cohort of homebuyers. if you make 42% of all buyers, they bought over 500 gun dollars a real estate in the last 12 months. millennials are very much in the market. but what they're buying has changed. they are buying later so they're buying bigger. they're basically skipping a starter home. when they go to buy, they are buying what would a conventional been considered a second or third step up on. >> are they making up such a large portion of first-time homebuyers just because the
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generation is a large and because they happen to be the group that is of age and doesn't already own? >> yes. they are also dual tracking. millennials but i do an overall is getting created because their soul of inventory. if you're a traditional buyer, you're getting created which means you have to be patient. they are submitting multiple offers, typical parsonage for at least four months before finding a home. that's much longer than usual. about one-third of all millennials are borrowing the down payment in order to stretch into velvet more than a third or exceeding the budget. that's another form of getting created is they are buying houses wha which we can't really afford. over 60% are dual track. this is a phenomenon we had not seen prior to the great recession. dual tracking people looking at buying or renting simultaneously. this is a real interesting cultural phenomenon because it's sort of, it reflects the fact that people no longer view that
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trees only go to the sky around housing. in other words, if you think home values maybe something will be flat or even down like they were during the recession, does it matter if i own or rent? i'm going to pay $200 $2000 a mh to the landlord or to the mortgage, to the mortgage servicer, to the bank, and someone to consider dual tracking. as is over 60% of millennials are looking at buying or renting side-by-side. >> is any long-term danger, some different ways millennials are cobbling together the down payment, and because of a new report out this it sometimes borrowing from family members and to a couple of different things, exceed the budget, sometimes putting down really low down payments, when you look at the economics of a lot of millennials some of them were out of work for quite some time, wages have just started to pick up a little bit. a lot of them have kind of student debt. a lot of them are renting for longer and rent in major cities with the jobs are a rising
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rapidly. it doesn't create a recipe for a ton of savings to put at all did a pretty expensive homes. are you at all concerned with what's going to happen there? >> let me compare this peak with the last peak. the short answer is not really, and here's why. the last peak in 2007 which again we basically at the some value levels was built on a foundation of sand, built on easy credit. the home owner rates, tinley people buy homes who never should've been able to buy homes. those people are able to get mortgage they never should've gotten. then through the downturn, basically people lost their homes because a no-show by thomson first place and the homeownership rate return. the spike in home values which brought us back to about the same overall level is building something totally different. it's lack of supply and strong demand. it's not based on easy credit.
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this recovery has a lot more just stronger foundation. sure i worry about people stretching for down payment of borrowing for down payment or buying votes outside the budget but overall housing is just so much more healthy even at the same dollar value that it was in 2007. >> earlier you said the market was on fire, talking about lack of supply. as somebody who falls economics, sometimes those terms make you nervous. are you at all worried about the bubble conditions? >> we think it will slow down. our forecast for the next four months is in the four to 5% depreciation so lower than the current 7% but no, our our data does not work as the -- a decline in home value. we are not worried the way we were in 2007. >> you guys are tracking the thoughts in homeownership or homebuying purchases of the next generation which i didn't realize generation z was old enough to think about homes or
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renting or anything. it turns out the arctic what he guys finding? what's there might sit? who'd you guys find as generation z? >> lookout millennials. you already been cast aside. you are already old. gnc is some people in the age sort of teens to early 20s. 22 or three feet is a cutoff. people graduate from college is in the workforce, and they are mostly renters. but the research on gen z which is published in the report we just put out, it really shows their very traditional views of homeownership, much like the parents or even their grandparents here they aspire to own a home. the media again, media tends to report, to overstep it from other parts of economy where millennials and gen z tends to share. they do not feel the way by housing at all. they want to own a house. they believe it's an important part of the american dream.
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and perhaps we don't have data on this but we hypothesize gen z of a higher ownership rate than millennials because millennials have a lot of scar tissue from the downturn. they came of age in '07, '08, '09 and said why would you want to buy a house? i don't want to catch a falling knife. forget it, i'll just read. it took many years for them to move out of that and coming to ownership. gen z doesn't know what the great recession was. they were five and speedy they don't understand the term negative equity. >> they deathly don't know what negative equity needs. so for them owning just seems like a more stable, then it won't have to worry about my rent going up. i know what i will have to pay every month i don't have to worry about getting kicked up by by landlord and i can put my pictures on the wall and not worry about damage to my rental. we hypothesize that gen z will be at higher ownership rate than millennials. >> do you think they will start buying sooner?
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if generation z is already think about this and there are a whopping 20 years old what are they buying? >> they would like to buy sooner. the problem is there's very little inventory. but yes, as they aspire to, they are searching and traffic from our website from that cohort is huge. they are looking but there also dual tracking. a lot of the lines run ownership have become blurred. airbnb phenomenon, and so they are very blurry about ownership. >> do you think there's any validity to the fear a lot of millennials have they don't want to buy at the top of the market and have a slightest amount of negative equity? this is what i hear from my friends in cities. do you think that's fair or -- >> absolutely, absolutely. everyone, when you're in a a search process for four months and you've been on eight-ounce and you've been outbid a times and you're getting ready to make a nice bid, you are absolutely
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but getting out over your skis and over bidding just to win the house, and then what? then you overpaid for a house. it's a huge concern. there's not much you can do because if you want to get the house he basically have to overbid. it's totally a risk. >> do you think technology can help with this issue? i know people who are looking for houses and the spend their entire time glued to the phones looking for new things to talk about. >> havprobably looking at zillo, that's fine. so yes. here's how i look at it every other sector of the economy has been revolutionized by the smartphone. we live in a pushbutton economy. i push a button and i get a car, i push a button and my books or podcast been downloaded. younger people but really just all americans have become so accustomed to the it understand what the real estate transaction is so complicated. why all this before and what is asko and what his title insurance and why does it take
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two months to close and pre-inspection, waiting inspection. even buying a car is been relatively simple thanks to the internet. we at zillow see that obviously, and we're trying to innovate on all that, and we are keeping to the paperless transaction. we have dot loop so you don't ever have to sign paperwork again. most real estate transactions now a close using electronic from dot looper summoned us. we are pretty good up front with the search process of helping people triage the search but there's a whole messy middle which has been innovator on very much by the industry or disruptors like us. imagine a world where you can come look at how mozilla, press a button and bite. what might that due to the ownership rate? if buying a home was as simple as hailing and uber, that's a game changer. unfortunately requires this very
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complex process which includes financing, which is highly regulated and very complex and all of it has to be torn down and rebuilt in a pushbutton with. >> i imagine you guys would face a lot of resistance or a lot of fear. i'm nervous to turn on my amazon one click setting for fear of what i will do. >> are you sure you want to buy this house? >> exactly. >> the patent has expired never it expired a couple weeks ago so now we can have one click i suppose. i mean, yes, we definitely have to figure that one out. i'm quite sure the consumer demand for a semifinalist the process is huge. i think the bigger concern is the industry reaction because some of that complexity is good for the industry, it's good for incumbents that benefit from that opacity and confusion and complexity and we are all about innovating for the consumer and prioritizing for her. we call her best they could go
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rent an office use posters of beth the buyer and use all her information and she is who, we live for beth and that so you all of our audit plan and strategy that does want to buy house the way she's been buying house right now. she wanted to be much more seamless? >> there were two trends without going to happen that were potentially problematic in the housing market. one was going to be boomers and older americans deciding they did what the big sprawling mansion in the suburbs and incoe downsizing and moving back in, and the other was millennials and younger workers deciding i never want to go to the suburbs, no thanks, i'm going to surrender which great part of the inventory problem. are you saying the fulfillment of both of those trends? >> yes, but they'v they been swy the lack of supply issue. when you're three to five years of an accumulated 500,000 home start for your deficit, you are just missing activities remain houses that should be there.
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that trend swamps any other. that's limited supply. >> this may be a selfish question but a year or two outcome what you think is the biggest way that's happening? >> let's see, good question. a year or two from now, there are a lot of companies including as that are innovating on a quicker sale process where a seller can sell their home to an investor buyer within days rather than traditionally. more testing of that a couple markets and that might be, something big. >> spencer, thanks so much for joining us. >> thank you. [applause] >> next up, a session produced by our underwriter. >> i was on my way out of this life. >> what has first diagnosed i felt paralyzing fear. >> unity stories all the time, and i going to pass waiflike my mom did?
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>> back in 1988 the only thing i could think of was i'm going to be dead in six months. >> and i see how scary it can be. >> it's like the war we're trying to fight against these diseases. >> at first it was difficult to see how in the world we will going to solve this problem. >> is a big challenge but the challenge in itself is what keeps me going. i could really make a difference in these peoples lives. >> everyday i think how fortunate i am. >> this is something i'm really passionate about. i really want to help. >> resilience is in my dna. >> my donors mom says you were meant to carry his story. >> it took a very long time for me to get back up. 29 years later here i am. >> when those patients come to me and say, you save my life -- >> my life was saved by a two-week-old targeted therapy drug. >> that's what really drives me to save lives. >> please welcome to the stage ted johnson, biopharmaceutical
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researcher for pfizer, matt hiznay, cancer survivor and phd candidate, and lori reilly, executive vice president of policy research and membership for phrma. [applause] >> good morning and thank you for being here. my name is lori reilly and and executive vice president for policy and research at phrma. we represent the nation's innovative pharmaceutical companies, and unjointed on the states today with two gentlemen who you probably recognize from the video that you just saw. to my immediate left is matt hiznay who was a patient treated with the targeted therapy for lung cancer. and to his left is doctor ted johnson, a biopharmaceutical researcher from pfizer. so welcome both of you here today. i want to jump right in. matt, talk to us little bit about what it felt like getting that initial diagnosis and what transpired over the weeks and
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months after. >> yes, so the sixers ago in the summertime, i was 24 and i developed this persistent dry cough around independence day. so i had my internist check it out in the month of august. a chest x-ray led to a cd, led to a biopsy, and on august 17, 2012011 i was told that cancer. i wasn't told what type of cancer. that review came about a week later on august 26 when i was told that i had stage four lung cancer. and so that essentially meant that from my neck to my torso was chock full of cancer. my oncologist told me that he was going to send my tumor away for test for a mutation of been under a lot of research and if i had i would qualify for a new targeted therapy drug. while waiting for the test i become very sick.
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i was resuscitated, i was in the intensive care unit for 21 days, and about '90s into and today i was told i had that mutation. the drug was overnighted and here i am today. coincidentally enough -- [applause] >> thank you. pretty remarkable coincidence that on august 26 the day i was told i had lung cancer, that same drug was fda approved. had some help. >> so ted, talk to us a little bit about why did you decide to become biomedical researcher? >> cancer is very personal to me. about 17 years ago i lost my mother to colon cancer. and at the time the treatments were basically surgery after surgery, long recovery times,
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followed by traditional chemotherapies. so she was sick most of the time, those chemotherapies were very harsh and toxic. and so that really drove me to want to work in the pharmaceutical industry to really help patients and make their lives better. >> so one of the great stories obviously and why you all both are here, ted, you part of the team that brought the medicine that treated matt to marketer can you talk a little bit about the process of getting an medicine conceptions are to acty be in a patient like matt? >> sure. to give you an idea, i have worked at pfizer for 16 years, and in that time i've worked on about ten oncology projects, and only one project has made it to phase one clinical trials. and that's with hundreds of researchers working on that project. that was just the start of the
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difficult process. a typical process is getting to the fda phase one, two and three and then getting approved. it's very challenging. it's very costly. it's very time-consuming, but we beat the odds and that one drug that i had go into phase one is now in phase three and is treating matt. >> great. it's often not the case that a patient actually gets to meet a person that actually helped make the product that they're on. in your case, matt come help save your life that i do recently the two of you met. today isn't the first day you met. and you tell us, matt and then ted, what it was like when you ask a got to meet each other face-to-face? >> desperate we met earlier this year and it's always exciting for me to meet someone that had a direct impact in my care, but being a scientist myself, being able to meet a fellow scientist
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who had created a molecule that without i would very likely not be speaking to you all today is quite remarkable. and so i'll do now what i did then and say ted, thank you for saving my life. [applause] >> had, how but you? >> i don't get to meet patients often, if at all. so it was really interesting to see how healthy matt looked when i first met him. he showed me the pills that he was taking and i have not seen that before either. and i think you have to have a sense of sort of where we are today in oncology versus say, 16 years ago with traditional chemotherapies. so matt is taking an oral drug once a day, and his quality of
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life is very good with very few side effects. and so to me that's just very rewarding and inspirational. >> i agree. [applause] >> okay. so lori, every day you work to sort of stoke public policy to help researchers like myself and patients like matt. can you give us an idea of what the policy environment needs to be for researchers to continue to tackle the toughest health care problems? >> that's a great question. i think for me like probably many of you in the audience, these issues are personal. it's hard not to know someone in your family or a friend who is suffered from a condition. for me it was my mom who passed away three years ago from als, a condition that today there really are hardly any treatment
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for, certainly none that are curative. and so i think it's important that there is an apartment the sustained innovation into the future. as ted mentioned bringing medicine to market takes a long time. the significant risk involved and the cost is very, very significant, some in the neighborhood of $2.5 billion to get new medicine to work very it's important we have an apartment that allows researchers to continue doing what they are doing. and there's lots of things that help ensure that environment. of course we have to make sure we have a food and drug administration that can review these new medicines. science is changing rapidly so the fda has to keep up with where the site is going. we have to make sure once the medicine actually gets approved for use in patients, that patients can get access to it and that they can afford this medicine. we had to also make sure that we have an intellectual property system that values innovation
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and allows companies to recoup the significant investment. and we also have to have an adequate trade and economic agenda that ensures that the u.s. pharmaceutical industry can compete globally. all of those things and quite honestly many more are vital to ensure that in the future researchers like ted can continue to do their work so the patient's like matt had the opportunity to live for hopefully a very long time. >> that's the plan. >> so i if you can all join me n thanking both ted and matt for being here today, appreciate it. [applause] ♪ >> next up, please welcome to the stage general david petraeus, here with cnn anchor and chief washington correspondent jake tapper. [applause]
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>> thank you so much everyone. thank you, general. finally get an interview within 14 years. so thanks, washington ideas festival for allowing me to finally get an interview with him. i want to start with an issue that is domestic issue, that i just wonder what you think of it, which is this debate going on largely led by president trump about players and protest during the national anthem. i ask you because obviously you have decades of military service, and also you are somebody who has when was attacking you back in the days when leading the search in iraq, you are somebody who has felt the slings and arrows of the first amendment. so what's your take. >> what somebody asked me if an espresso when you opened up the
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new times because i still read newspapers in those days, and is getting ready for was going to be a very, very russia back hearing on the surge, the first one, ambassador crocker and i came back to i remember opening it up and i thought about it for a while, and i response to the press was look, i feel very privileged to have spent at the time i don't know what it was 30 plus years, serving in the military to defend the rights and freedoms we also get including the freedom of expression which includes being allowed to buy full-page ad in the "new york times" that attacks me personally, not just the policy. if you translate that into the situation ideal that the same way bu but i had to send just te disappointed that now we have politicized football. as mike hayden wrote in a wonderful op-ed the other day, you would go to the games and lose himself in the game. at the end of the day for the
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spectators it is again. it is a profession and a very tough profession for those on the field, but it's something that brought people together and, unfortunately, now we're seeing actions that really are dividing them. so innocent i'm disappointed. i just hope we can turn the boy down, turn heat down and let's get back to enjoying football and people not having to make political statements at the beginning of the games. >> the north korean crisis -- [applause] >> the north korean crisis obvious he is foremost on the minds of use military right now. to a lot of our friends in europe and in other parts of the world, they see this crisis as to erratic, unstable world leaders, kim jong-un and president trump, squaring off against each other and they are afraid of how it's going to end. is that a fair way to look at this crisis? and what you think of president
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trump matching in some cases the rhetoric that we have been, that we've come to get used to from north korea? >> a couple items here i think. first of all, to put this in context and to be fair to this administration, i think you have to acknowledge that they are facing are really that no other president has faced previously, and that is that this individual, kim jong-un, impulsive at the very least, i don't think so seidl, and that's a pretty important assessment at the end of the day, but clearly given extraordinary measures if remember how his half brother was killed with nerve agent to the face in an airport and the maniacal way in which he executed his uncle who was his mentor and was getting too much power, but he will have the capability to hold at risk a u.s. city alleys on the west coast if not further in with a combination of the intercontinental ballistic missiles he is developing a
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nuclear device that is miniaturize, noting the one that was exploded a couple weeks ago was at least 12 times the size of the bomb that was dropped in world war ii in hiroshima. so this is a very big deal. i think the administration has sought to get not just his attention because of doping anyone is under the illusion that he is going to stop doing what he is doing because we have the ball you. i think it's really more about getting china's attention and making china realize this is a strategically important development to us, and you've got to help us stop this where it is at the very least, get to some negotiations and see where we can take in the future. >> you think president trump's rhetoric is getting president xi is attention more than -- >> very much so. this is where the military option, there are military
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options, but he also knows they are all very ugly to describe them. the proximity of soul now to the demilitarized zone is much, much less than it was. it's almost 25 million person megalopolis to been on where you draw the circle that is push closer and closer north to the dmz over the recent decades. and the thousands of just conventional, this is without nuclear, biological or chemical weapons, just the sheer number of conventional artillery rockets, missiles would be devastating in terms of losses in the korean population. now we're looking at this kind of range that could actually again hit a u.s. city. so this is about china, which controls the umbilical cord that literally keeps the lights on in pyongyang, and reducing that. and implement the sanction the u.n. security council has approved which are quite
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substantial it implemented. china also should really keep in mind the strategic applications of this, if this is not stop where it is. when the south korea ask for its own nuclear weapons, either the return of our or its own nuclear program? what about japan which is already reinterpreted its constitution to allow alleys the collective self-defense with her allies, the u.s.? what about the additional defensive measures? china doesn't like the defenses and going into south korea. the newly elected leader of the south korea as you know halted that deployment at two of the six launchers, not all for additional ones are going in. there's going to be much more. and then what happens again with vietnam? to the need a nuclear program? so the proliferation aspects, the implications i think are quite stark. and as one who very much wants
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to see proliferation limited rather than expanded, because you never know ultimately some extremist is going to get his hands and even if it's just a dirty bomb materials, i mean, these are individuals who shown a willingness to blow themselves up on the battlefield to take us with the what would cause him to hesitate at all using some weapon of mass destruction or the components of it? >> and yet it seems as though of these based on china's own government documents that they are not limiting trade with north korea to the degree that would change the behavior of kim jong-un and his regime. >> which is seeing the trade numbers for august where the largest since december so not the direction we were hoping to go. >> so they've made the calculation -- >> we don't know yet. this is going to play out over months. there's going to be a lot of intense diplomacy behind the scenes. we do need a strategic dialogue with china about this to
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understand their redline that you can in a hostile power of john yang, no reunification of the korean peninsula, no millions of refugees going across the river into china. within a have to understand our red lines as well and see if then together we can figure out a way to get them to halt where it is that he is now, and then see if we can move forward in a more constructive manner. >> president trump took to twitter a few days ago after hearing and north green official speak at united nations and he tweeted something that had convinced at least rhetorically the north koreans that he had declared war on north korea. are you ever worried, i know yet great faith in the generals around president trump, mcmaster, kellyanne matters mat, and give the concern president trump may say or tweet something that could seriously escalate this crisis? >> first of all by the way i'm very comfortable with the generals that in the position to
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i don't think as a general proposition that's just always great. these generals are really extraordinary. i served with all of on the battlefield multiple times. john kelly was a division commander in anbar province during the search within reach. h. r. mcmaster was with us in the surge in centcom and then afghanistan. same with his deputy, top of his class at west point, successful businessman, to soar in the reserves. these are good people and then obviously jim mattis and others. very strong national security argument as good as any in recent memory, if not better. and, frankly, i think the policy process and the policy outcomes generally are quite rational. now, there is something to the so-called, it's actually called the madman logic if you will. before you get into a crisis, it's not all that bad if the other side thinks you're a little bit edgy.
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nixon had kissinger go tell the soviets hey, nixon is under a lot of pressure. he has a drink after dinner, be careful, walk on eggshells around the sky. and they sort of did. you avoid getting into a crisis. the problem is if you do get into a crisis, you don't want the other side thinking you've taken the slack out of the trigger already entered going to do something otherwise might be irrational. because they may do to you first. that's where my concern is. the rhetoric has to be modulated and certainly some of the statements are not ones that are necessarily what is fertilized. >> i want to ask you about -- [laughing] >> great potential as a diplomat. [laughing] >> it was lovely how we said that, wasn't it? we all have our own ways of saying it, i suppose. i want to ask you about the presidents latest iteration of
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the travel ban. which is quite different from how it was enunciated on the campaign trail, quite different from how it was introduced such as it was several months ago. >> i think there's logic to this, frankly. it includes some non-muslim countries. the distinguishing feature of these countries is that we do not have the confidence in them, with either the way they issue passports or biometric data or whatever it may be. and so as has been announced this list could grow, it could contract, depending on how countries do in the responsibilities are i think there is a reasonable logic to this. it's not something that singles out countries because of their faith, and so we'll see how it evolves as well. i'm not sure that it is quite a significant, frankly. i do think we're taking huge numbers of individuals from a number of these different countries to begin with. but again there is some substance to this.
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>> secretary mattis was in kabul, and he was discussing troop levels in afghanistan. what would you recommend, we have over 10,000 troops in afghanistan right now i believe. some of between 10,000 -- [inaudible] >> right, right. obviously this is a big decision about what the president should do. has the administration reached out to to get your advice? what would you recommend? >> actually the administration has done what i've been calling for for some time publicly, and yes, i have obviously commit occasion with folks in the administration, and that was to achieve a sustainable sustained commitment. let's back up. we went to afghanistan for a reason and we stayed for reason. his of what the 9/11 were planned, when al-qaeda had a sanctuary in eastern afghanistan when the taliban ruled the bulk of the country. we went into ensure that sanctuary was removed and stay
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to ensure that it could not be reestablished. this is not about turning afghanistan into switzerland in ten years or less or anything like that. our objectives were to get to afghan secret force of being able to secure the country do good enough fashion to ensure a century like that could not be reestablished. and to afghan institutions get to a point where they can govern afghanistan in an afghan way to a good enough standard as well. that's going to take time. this is a very, very challenging country. the distinguishing feature is that we can't get to the leaders of the insurgent groups, and that's why told congress as a central command commander anthony my confirmation hearing to be the commander in afghanistan i would not be able to flip afghanistan are way reflect iraq the search. we knew we could do we did in iraq, we did natalie couldn't guarantee how long it would take but we felt if we change the strategy in the way we did in the surge that mattered most is of the surge of ideas.
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live with the people said consolidating on a big basis. take back control step handing off faster and that above all reconciliation with the sunni arab population that had been alienated by the central government. give them an incentive to support the new iraq rather than oppose it. that's what drove violence down by over 80% during the 18 month of of the surge. the afghan taliban sits south of the country in pakistan, in the haqqani network the taliban, islamic movement of uzbekistan al-qaeda remnants are the heart of darkness. we just want to be sure we keep thathem out of that sanctuary in afghanistan. we have a policy that i believe is sustainable in terms of blood and treasure and a strong support what the president directed be done. and it will enable a sustained commitment we are engaged in a generational struggle and we
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need to acknowledge that. this is not the fight of the decade, much less a few years. and it's a fight not just a course in afghanistan but in a number of other countries, in north africa, middle east and central asia. anywhere there are ungoverned spaces, extremes are going to exploit of them. you have to do something about it because las vegas rules don't apply in those areas. what happens there doesn't stated. we had the unique capabilities to do that and by the way now we're doing it in a way where we are enabling others to do the fighting. we are advising, assisting, enabling what we're not doing the fighting on the front lines and that matters because it has to be sustainable and that's a we're starting to achieve. >> very quickly. when you talk about this as a generational struggle, i know you don't mean like one generation, human several. does that mean you think the american people and congress need to wrap their heads around the fact that in the same way that the u.s. troops in germany
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and korea for a decades generation long struggle against the soviet union and communist china, et cetera, that is the same way we need to think about the struggle against extremist islamic terrorism? >> i do. the analogies are not perfect. those were not hot wars. these are but i see no alternative to us being engaged, advising, sitting and enabling with these assets that we built up during the course of the wars in iraq and afghanistan and elsewhere. i want, we should have coalition. coalition. by the way the coalition should include muslim countries. this is more of a clash within the civilization fight for the heart of the islamic world than it is a clash of civilizations, as sam talked about. far more muslims have been killed by islamic extremists that have been those of other faiths. so this is going be something that's going to be enduring, and we do need to understand that, but that's why sustainability and a sustained commitment have
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to be the elements that guide our strategic thinking. >> you can tell i'm bursting with question but we only have two more minutes. >> rapidfire round. >> i discovered headed over to you for this. you are the former director of the cia. i haven't even got cia stuff. former director of cia. what crosses your mind when you hear about the russian interference in the u.s. election and the way they exploited our own freedoms to influence the election? >> very, very concerning. and, of course, we still don't really know all of it. that's part of the investigation that's going on. they are now exploring what russia did so skillfully with facebook to plant ads that were divisive. i mean, all of this is intended to divide our country rather than to enable our normal democratic processes to work, which can be somewhat partisan at times as it is. so it is bravery concerning. look, there's always been some of his activity that's going on,
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and far be it we perhaps have engaged in some of that over the years as well, although nowhere remotely near what they're doing, not certainly in recent decades. but this gets at the very heart of, again, the freedoms, the blessings, the system that we hold so dear. and they are trying to take down that system. they see it as a threat to them, enormous threat, and they employed very, very innovative and diabolically clever and very really quite terrible activities to try to tear down the system that we spent so much to build up. >> ladies and gentlemen, cia director and general david petraeus. [applause] >> and now the founder and ceo of milk bar, christina tosi here with the atlantic senior editor derek thompson.
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>> good morning. >> good morning. >> good morning, everyone. i'm extremely excited for this interview. milk bar is one of new york's most famous emporiums of desert and an particularly excited because it's flagship location is at 13th and second avenue b-uppercase-letter eight blocks exactly north of my apartment. i'm very excited to parlay this interview into a lifetime of free cookies. that's unethical. if you're not familiar with milk bar incredible lineup, it includes cereal milk softserve, cornflake chocolate chip marshmallow cookies. and the famous compost cookie which is a chocolate chip cooke that includes ingredients one might find in a compost, coffee, chips and pretzels which happens to be my diet.
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how did you fall in love with making? >> i was raised by an incredible family, strong women, the matrix in my family cooked every meal but more important they loved to bake. we have really sweet teeth and my family common baking was served like our love language. it was what we did for other people for the committees we were a part of. i was the youngest i was the lowest in like the pecking order size always like i should into the kitchen like sit on the stool, all this wooden spoon. the spirit of a key for me is like a very warm nurturing spirit and its a place that makes me happy, spends time in the kitchen. >> with a couple companies coming yesterday, boeing, the research lab at all that which is next to google. both famous further r&d labs, research and development. when you think of research and development you think massive tech companies. you guys have an rad lab. >> you have to have an r&d lab. >> tell us about what you do there.
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>> entire kitchen at milk bar whether it's in the kitchen in new york city, we have the same kitchen around the corner in d.c., each of our kitchen staff like an r&d area but for me the spirit of innovation and creativity is what makes me sort of tip. i'm a very right brain left brained person and milk bar is very much an extension of me. so being created, exercising that part of the brain is like comes hand-in-hand with the business and do something with a lot of value in. because what we do is like has ordinary roots but is extraordinary. and having that thoughtful time to say how can we reinvent the apple pie and how can we cook chocolate cake and push it further is like making a fresh delicious compost cookie every singlsingly. >> the restaurant industry is on fire. added more jobs issue than healthcare. i feel like every single city in america thinks it's going through a restaurant renaissance.
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most of them are. that also means there's enormous competition. quite frankly anybody can make the cookie. maybe not a good cookie but anybody can make a cookie. i'm wondering what is your theory from what makes milk bar stand apart? >> i opened milk bar nine years ago in new york city, and my real goal was, i always had this dream of opening a bakery. i didn't want like a pony are to be apprenticed as a kid. i want to my own bakery. i wanted like a cash cash register to punch in the numbers. mom is an account like the numbers in the pit speedy you have low bakery as a glick on the street? >> no. my mom wouldn't even like let have an easy bake oven. she said you learn the real oven and us all there is to. i had this argument or. >> in at an early age but i knew my was through food. but my personality, i went to
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culinary school and it worked and height in fine dining restaurants, and paid my dues. but for me i knew my voice and my spirit is much more accessible than that, like i'm very much a food for the people here but it wanted to open a bakery that added something, like i could make a great chocolate chip cookie but your forehead, and who has had a great chocolate chip cookie and if one has their favorite. rather than compete with the great chocolate chip cookie it was about how to take the spirit of a chocolate chip cookie into more? how do i add to the dialogue? how do i create something that doesn't exist in this world that challenges the way we think about this world, the food in it and what a cookie can and can't be. for me that's a very big part of the business mentality of milk bar that i built and have grown. anyone can make a cookie, but for me i like a very, very trained pastry chef that brings the spirit of home baking into
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milk bar, and we do it with this love and the spirit and the secure and we know why we're doing it. and i think that's what separates us to we started like this baking revolution nine years ago, so everyone, like the bakeries they come after us and this like insane, exciting electric emerging fujian is something we're so excited to have helped start and to continue the conversation and to support these great insane talented younger generations of chefs and entrepreneurs that are trying to like arvada space for themselves in the food industry. >> my philosophical theory y milk bar has become so popular, because i've lived in new york for five years. i've watched it grow and now you 12 location in new york alone, had always been the idea when you're a kid and you're just learning how to cook, your approach to cooking is like whatever is in the kitchen, right? you going to the kitchen, you want to make a cake and what life is a chocolate chips,
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pretzels, potato chips, and coffee grounds. fine, i'll just go altogether into a thing. the thing you make when you're sicsix use old with those ingredients are absolutely terrible. you guys make a really elegant version of it, and so in a way you capture a beautiful, elegant version of the most familiar thing in the world to people, which is just being in your kitchen and rooting around for ingredients and try to put them together in a new way. >> for me it's about capturing the spirit of those little moments in life that make you feel warm and safe and loved and comfortable and make life feel like a big smile, feel a little lighter. if it's feeling heavy, we are still get milk bar, our mission is to make life a little bit sweet of you obviously through the sugar in a cookie or a slice of layered cake are a slice of cracked by, but also in our attitude towards life and
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customer service where people are coming to milk bar because they're having a great day and it's a job to make it better, or they come into milk bar because they're not having such a great day and they are looking to us to bring that lightness and that permission for just a moment to let it all go. and we do that through our food. we joke, like when things are getting very intense building this insane like milk bar empire that when things get really crazy, they are like, you know what, we're making cookies. what we do has a lightness and the joy and we might just to even take a moment to not take ourselves so seriously. and that's helpful. we give people the permission to like, michael is on what you do come to milk bar, be inspired and say like why can't i go home and relishes the pantry and feel inspired to be creative? and to take a risk and to put myself out there. i think giving people sometimes the reminder and the permission to do that is important. food is just my vehicle in
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translating that message. >> let me put myself in the position of an investor. i'm looking at the millennial generation, which is probably a disproportionate part of your sales. people under 35 maybe maybe not but look at this growing cohort, and they are thought of as being a healthy generation or at least trying to community their health. they're going to seoul cycle, flywheel, there into the next latest green. ..
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we all promote it like that, it is not about calorie count in a milk bar but would you said there are if you interesting things. this millennial generation, you could put it in this bucket about being healthy but i look at it more as a generation of living there best life as opposed to health and well-being acknowledging pursuit of ballast and their life is important but if you look at price to entry for 10 or $12 salad or 30 or $40 workout, all those are an indulgence, just a different indulgence coming to get a cookie and the work hard play hard mentality of it. you can't ride a bicycle and sweat for an hour every day and only eat salad. all those moments bring the
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participant joy. i am a boss, feel like a pro, power to take on the world, go to a milk bar, chocolate chip marshmallow cookie, you know you worked hard for it, it is a special moment you carved out in your day and it empowers you in the same but different way, a well-rounded way. it is about being well-rounded or are we that excited about salad? yes we are. i we excited about cereal, milk, yes we are. it is about being mindful about these moments when you have the opportunity to make a decision about what makes me feel great about my day and great about myself and the power to make those decisions is the culmination of all things like living your best life. >> i live 7 minutes away from the hostess milk bar and -- >> 7 minutes away from living
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your best life. >> a mile run from me or a mile walk. i feel even though i live so close i see more milk bar on instagram and in the neighborhood. it is so prevalent on social media. people take pictures of the most beautiful candy, not oreos or to his letters. could you imagine? could you imagine a milk bar having the same rate of growth if it weren't for instagram? do you need instagram to keep up the current rate of growth? >> and for us is just a fun way for our voice to travel further and wider than before. i laugh about it because nine years ago instagram wasn't an apps anyone had downloaded on the phone.
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in the same way food wasn't this exciting thing nine years ago. it has become this revolution and for me instagram is a fun way to reach more people. we have stores in new york, a store in dc, las vegas and toronto and ship everywhere in the united states but instagram is this instance connective point. you can't get your hands on a confetti cookie if you go on instagram, we are visual people. i eat with my eyes first or that draws me in and it is a way and a moment for me, milk bar is more than the food we serve. it is a feeling, an approach, arguably a lifestyle and instagram is an insane and credible tools around out why you are so special when you have a slice of pie when you walked a
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mile run a mile, i earned this. it is that moment you can share or celebrate or learn and participate even if you only have a minute and not going on a run. >> what do you see as the future of food? people are speaking of self driving cars, companies working on drones, is the future of food for you, can you imagine in 20 years milk bar cookies being delivered by drone, self driving ovens canvassing the streets of manhattan? >> 100%, beyond manhattan. first of all i love where technology has taken us in the past we 5 years, ten years. about how quickly the world changes day-to-day and week to week as the ceo of milk bar, my 5 year plan, tenure plan, where am i taking this company? making those plans are important but the wild world of food
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changes every day, every time something happens. for me the dream of freshly baked cookies coming from the drone out of the sky, nothing could be more magical and powerful. you can practically go swimming in a tub of rainbow sprinkles, you can drowning cake batter, bringing at way to bring more of that magic to people is certainly the future of food, food experiences are going to continue to be something that grows and builds in the future of food. we will always come in and out of these fads, what cream or sugar, gluten-free or not, is but a good for us are bad for us, those things will always change but bringing the emotion of food and making


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