tv Where Machine Intelligence Ends and Human Creativity Begins CSPAN January 3, 2018 10:28pm-11:37pm EST
>> vandenburg finds himself in opposition when fdr is elected and the democrats in the early 1930s the majority in the senate easing opposition for the next dozen years and that means to get anything done which often meant persisting some of franklin roosevelt initiatives there needs to be a coalition. he had to reach across the ire up -- across the aisle. >> in 1997 gary kasparov the came the first world chess champion to lose to a machine in a case against ibm super computers. he writes about the historic match and artificial intelligence in his book "deep thinking." in this appearance in san francisco mr. sadberry discusses his pro-democracy advocacy in russia and opposition to
vladimir putin. this is an hour. [applause] >> hello. >> i will get the microphone all set up. good afternoon welcome to the commonwealth of the california the plays were in the know. you can find a common with abundant internet at commonwealth club.gord. i'm probably current vice president new said ktv d in san francisco and i will be your moderator for today's program. now it's my pleasure change it is today distinguished speaker garry kasparov. [applause] gary is chairman of human rights foundation former world chess champion and author of the new book "deep thinking" where
mr. kasparov joined the vanguard from the pro democracy movement made chairman of the human rights foundation and facing imminent arrest in 2013 during the flu putin crackdown and moved to new york city from moscow. his nonprofit promotes the teaching of chess pride into to today's discussion a visiting fellow at the oxford martin school i actually had to cut about he is so accomplished also the board of foundation for responsible robots and in 20 years ago the world watched as the greatest chess player in the world was defeated for the first time by the ibm supercomputer.
he points out the year before he wanted and says that symbolizes the fight against machine coming to see how they can partner that is the subject of his new book named "deep thinking" please give me and our guest a warm welcome garry kasparov. >> caller: before we get into the conversations around ai and it is revolutionizing i will start with russia. given that extraordinary political moment give us some insight what it is like to be a dissident to have that
crackdown on that democratic protest talk to us how that happened. >> eight months ago i was here traveling across the country promoting my book everybody wanted to ask me. [laughter] so now i have a new book. so as these are connected to cybersecurity it is about interference. so regarding the situation russia.
so that so many people are willing to join the rally so to be protected by the police. and people realize the risk but they are still willing to show their dissatisfaction. and to have money it wasn't in 2000 so that if even 80 or 90% were willing to take action the actual level of support it is quite thin.
all of them talked about lifting sanctions to bring in out of the cold. but he lost his bet. [laughter] >> the journalists also had to moscow for her views recently had an op-ed that said imagine the villains of history as a strategist and mastermind of horror. but retrospectively it makes those events seem predetermined to have that unavoidable perception of
historical event caused shocking destruction that there must've been a correspondingly giant monster. with the catastrophes of the 20h century more frightening to imagine and to say somebody who spent years studying mr. putin as a journalist who had unscripted conversations with him i can vouch he is in curious man poorly educated he is vastly out of proportion to his understanding of the world to the extent he has any interest in governing it is his role on russian television that concerns him and attending a summit or pirating a -- piloting a plane it is a spectacle of power that interest him. so when i read that it makes me wonder how you compare the persona of president trump
with vladimir putin? >> speaking of trump as we had a conversation coming on stage. i think we are lucky that it is trump who would expose the weakness of the system there was no plan or strategy and we can do with that because he is flawed and there are so many weaknesses in the administratio administration. i think it will help america it is like the virus attacks. a does weaken the immune system if it doesn't kill you makes you stronger. [laughter] not a deadly virus.
but look at the -- putin. i am not sure i agree entirely but in my former life the worst mistake you could make to underestimate putin. that is a big mistake. she is right he is poorly educated but he has instinct. the man stays in power 18 years and he is a savvy dictator. he knows how to manipulate people. to instinctively learned it is a brand-new world. you can use free speech. in a free environment of democracy to promote your own
the acting prime minister and foreign mom --dash foreign colleagues? and it is amazing and they are still asking him. did you do that? of course people think i did that. not because he read books like us but he had those instincts that no one in history ever attacks a strong dictator. as long as they are strong
there will be no surprises. >> you tweeted yesterday the point of modern propaganda but exhaust critical thinking and annihilate truth. so how can our democratic society survive this level of chaos? >> better late than never. but putin found out they should be aware that this business to create fake news is decidedly russian.
and that will not happen with channel one or channel two propaganda machine. so if you show up on the internet and find website that looks decent but to have its own window that while you buy those credentials but then to go beyond russia in his speaking world. and to use that globally. and to be quite successful. because it can be 100
different ways with the social media channels you kim and if you lay public opinion to amplify. somebody will pick it up. but there is only one way. but for instance not just denial that ten different versions. it was the ukraine and a jet fighter now somebody from holland. by the way one day was amazing different channels was reported reduction vesta gators and offer two different versions. with all of the diagrams
another talked about a jet fighter or is it at the same time? it doesn't matter. somebody will buy it. he doesn't have to sell you anything. but they have to convince you to support only political groups with the anarchist or the communist. they can go far left or far right anything is good for him. so he knows how to weapon eyes everything. because they disturb political
balance like angela merkel or entrance so with the resources of putin and the web and unprepared for this onslaught. >> so what is your advice to ordinary men? >> you have to understand this does exist. showing to look at putin as the main source of power. >> using putin is more dangerous to american society? >> are you kidding? not today but a couple weeks ago he said bluntly russia is
look for the money. as long as the wife can run the business from geneva. and have access to europe. big deal. but as long as he makes business then putin doesn't care. so that depends with the willingness to make money. and to get a proper response from the united states and europe and you have a very high price.
>> what do you miss about living in moscow? >> my mother. she is 80. outside of russia she has sisters and nephews and nieces. so wife and kids coming back-and-forth would be ideal. right now it is a one-way ticke ticket. >> turn to "deep thinking" artificial intelligence and to get to the 2015 election with coal mining jobs then rather how do we adapt to this future
and you are an optimist that you really think if we combine machine power with human power thinking that is good for the future. talk about how you frame your thinking around machine learning or artificial intelligence. >> one is it was my personal story to be part of this machine competition or history of human relations. so it is natural progress. because there is so much panic based on that. but slow down just look at the
machines no but they were not able to make decisions that is the speech in amsterdam ten days ago to come up as something that is a good example. you remember in star wars when they were in the asteroid field to escape from the imperial fleet. and they said the odds were 20/one. but it is an important moment because the machine was right. but the machine could not realize the chances to get there are less because you are caught and killed or worse.
so know your odds to make that calculation machines will never give you the right advice to corporate and collaborate and of course it goes beyond extreme situations so it is occupied it is too expensive. so now you have to buy a gift you realize it is impossible to combine them with the decision that is satisfactory to you.
i'm sure our kids and grandchildren, no. the stupid people are still driving cars? [laughter] now what will happen with no drivers? it will happen. >> it is happening. >> it is and we have to make sure we know what we will do. it isn't just about saving jobs. i think it is too slow because it slows down the cycle. at the end of the cycle you have a new cycle. before any technology created jobs so if you slow down this part you prevented starting a new cycle of economic growth and possibly creating new sustainable jobs.
it was probably winter, the late 60 or 69, my parents tried to solve chest puzzle. sure it is cage. many people remember the newspapers with little, with a little section at the bottom of the last page with just puzzles. and i was captivated by the game. i did not know how to move pieces but i was immediately, i was lucky. i found it. i learned how to, wanting them the pieces i learned how the pieces, the basic rules. and that was the moment. request that was the moment. when you talk about your match, the second one that you lost. you say that humans crack under pressure. machines don't. and at the end of the book you say, humans can dream, sheehan
cannot. >> what is the contradiction? [laughter] >> just one comment. it is about what the competition. why does this is now to write machines in any game. i see now that it is, every game will eventually crack. to me, more precise, machine will crunch by winning. it is not about solving game of chess. there moves essay it is more than items in the social stimulus agreed is unlimited. what machine doesn't have to make the first move. and 20,555 most. it's about winning winning
means transport humans cannot place it again. we always make mistakes. it is inaccurate machine to capitalize. that's why this project is too much for humans to spare and salmon golf. again, it's not, it doesn't say that we are dealing with -- people as intelligent -- losing to the alarm clock does make it any better. seriously, it was very successful. deep blue speed was phenomenal and amazing today. 200 million per second. but when you look at the way this machine made decisions, it could offer you very little if any input in the mysteries of
human intelligence. machines do not need intelligence to play a game of chess. chess was vulnerable to this once hardware got fast enough and smart enough. today we have computers by the way that are far more sophisticated and stronger and i am almost surprised people say that the pretest app on your mobile phone -- >> here is another audience question? what is your perseverance technique after what you lose a game? look, i did not lose money. [ >> so you don't develop a technique? >> no, it is the, is a good question. first of all, i believe that every game, whether i win or lose is a important piece of
information i had to learn from. in one of the books, i spoke about we know that we have to learn from our mistakes and we believe that if we won it's because we are great. i know even if i win there were certain mistakes. have to learn about it and make her the next day i will be armed with new ideas. my opponents lost by mistakes and they will come back with new ideas as well. so it was quite painful. i in the book. cannot do this and be a sore loser. it is you. if you make a mistake if they find it and but it is just coming back the next day. it is another game. it is the time it is the same story is again that he won because it brings you valuable
information. so it is more painful but at the end of the day it is your ability to learn from this and i was angry but i always felt that now have a chance to come back being stronger. because what i learned from my mother, from my childhood is the game of chess was not just about winning or losing. of course, it is about winning. [laughter] but the most important thing, it was my chance to make a difference. that is why by the way, i succeeded in moving away from chess to do other things. because it is about making a difference. i know i can make a difference. >> there is a point in your book i love. hard work is talent. >> absolutely! i am not happy when i hear all the time, this person is talented or this one is less talented but he is a hard
worker. it is part of talent! work hard is part of a talent and a very important part. >> i love that. there is a question from the audience. mostly i'm using the ones who are doing the print because i left my glasses backstage. i am sorry i'm having a hard time reading some of them. as you see artificial intelligence or do you? taking part to limited human bias and discrimination? >> is a big mistake considering the device as something that is good by definition. >> is holding up his phone. >> my android. it is neither good nor bad. it is agnostic. you can do many great things with this group connect with friends, do business. unfortunately you can do a lot. it is not going to change our life because if it is in the hands of vladimir putin or isis
it will not work for positive things but it will serve as destruction. i think it is a big mistake trying to shift responsibilities to ai, to machines. it is in our hands! we just have to make sure that this too will serve our interests, our community our country, the world, mankind. because there are always people that will try to use the same technology to destroy. every technology is like two sides. nuclear technology you can have nuclear power station but it is the same as here. so this is why i warn you not to expect paradise because we reach a new level of technology for development. >> as we say we have to combine human intelligence, compassion
and -- >> human factors indispensable. absolutely indispensable. it is not just humans having passion and understanding and machines cannot match it. but it is about purpose. machines have the best algorithms. eventually we can have the something phenomenal. the best algorithm in the universe. but they have purpose. one of the reasons because we have purpose but we do not know what it is. [laughter] >> will never share the secrets with machines. >> this is another question from the audience. aside from the test, how will we know when we'll ai has arrived? >> it is as if, you cannot, that is what the original idea of the founding father of computer science. thinking that the moment you will not be able to tell the machine from human by asking.
that is artificial intelligence.other founding fathers, they believe that chess is the ultimate test. deep blue won the match in that we have many very small commuters chess engines that claim great chess. a lot stronger than the movie cannot follow intelligent. i do not know that there will be this moment. this is the moment we believe the machine is intelligent. it is not just one day on the counter. it is just another day in history. i think it is happening. if we talk about intelligence, we talked about now you have to leave the department if science in moving to philosophy. the question is, which
intelligence is consciousness. when we looking for machine intelligence. are we looking for the results or the process. how are you going to tell it? by machine and coming up with results. or we have to make sure if it happens the way that we can understand it. so that we can see this as similar tasks of getting from a to b as if my opinion, i'm not expect. i think it is more about ourselves. when you look at the inclinations of early ai, when you have years to spare look at the million miles of logs you will find out the origin of the decision. there is more than i do not think the man behind the
program and the team they will ever tell you why version 6 played better than version 9. because it is a little black box. again it is good and bad. good because you keep learning. stop improving. but if it gets plugged you'll never find out what it is. a new challenge. i wouldn't be too fearful about it because it is part of the process. we just have to get adjusted to it. >> hardly think chess is such a powerful and enduring metaphor for human intelligence? >> i think if you look at japan and china, and japan most popular game is the japanese version of chess. just being played around the world, and we do not know exactly how it happened that the game move in different
directions over centuries and absolved social traditions in certain countries. that's right rental versions are very different from ours. but everywhere it is being judged as the were being treated as the ultimate test for intelligence. i think the fact that the game survived for so long and even today at a time with computers, it is still being treated with this great respect. for instance in the japanese championships, there's a history of almost 400 years and a list of people that are considered to be the smartest in the nation. >> you still enjoy playing chess? >> i love the game. i follow all this. i play exhibitions. and as you mentioned, the foundation of very active in this country and around the
world. i am an active part of this process. it is not only working with blueprints and schools. and promoting the game. as important educational tool which i think is another big discussion about education and then what chess can do for that and the ai. but also, we have problems for rising stars. i was after 10 years of work with young americans and talented kids this country has a strong in the world. next month in missouri there was a match between us juniors and the rest of the world. i think -- look, chest will always stay in my life. i will say 25 or 30 percent of my activities are somehow connected to the game of chess. i'm very happy with it.
>> another audience question. as the population ages and many have less mental ability, can ai come to the rescue? >> b&question i hope the answer is, yes! >> yes but you have to find a way. it is a new technology and naturally, it is not just kill jobs but it will create opportunities. i think the opportunities are unlimited. it is that we have to find a way to apply it. we've been doing so many things that we abandon because it was too risky. but space expiration, boat exploration. and you know there are things that we can revisit because we have such a powerful and with such a powerful alliance with intelligence. >> he mentioned go. some snappy planet and keep the differences and similarities between that and chess? >> i do not play go. i know the rules. you have to be very cautious
about the game of go. when i understand, it was played between -- and machine from google and two matches with top players. go is more complicated than chess because it doesn't have the same -- the game goes longer and it means that even if, and again i'm not in a position to judge but i feel it is not as powerful as chess. we are talking about absolute numbers. but the human performance of go is way below the human performance, the average performance of the world champion of course. [laughter]
in chess. the mistakes that humans make in go because it is so complicated, and therefore more dramatic. for instance, think today, the carmel champion having against machine i think if you want to make a draw would bet on him saving the game now in go i don't think there's a chance. it seems like nowadays they do because they cannot, they have the same, they can exercise the same control of the game as a world champion can do in chess. >> is another question from the audience. you think chess has been trivialized by computers? >> if you look at number of people playing chess today versus 20 years ago the answer is no. it depends what you expect. yes, it was trivialized because chess amateur now can follow the matches of top players.
not worshiping every move that they make. but being highly critical. i remember when i played matches. even grandmasters who followed the game were very cautious. almost afraid to criticize us. even if they saw there was a mistake. you can hear people laughing around the world watching the game even the machine shows it was a blender. so civilization also means that millions of people cannot follow the game. not being fooled by the mcdonald's presence of the world champion. they just look at the moves in the control of the game realizing what's happening. >> here's another question.i read somewhere that you lost against the ibm program due to a bug. the program did not know what to play and played a random move. you were then taken back by the
move. it was not a logical move. the clean. >> by the book. it is -- it is a fake news story! [laughter] here's another chess question could i get overconfident after theme was in chess and then i lose the game. how should i control that? [laughter] >> i think your problem is it goes way beyond chess! [laughter] overconfident, you have to win a few games. [laughter] >> you mentioned, another question from paul in the audience. he mentioned that lies exhaust critical thinking. what are your predictions for the future of natural intelligence and the faculty of critical thinking a math. >> it is kind of going back to
the politics. it is not, there is no answer because lies very often, they don't look like lies. they look like real stories. >> the point of good propaganda! >> you should be sort of, you should educate yourself. and what you can try to do is look for some competing sources. because that is one of the ideas of this fake news avalanche. you get, you're sick and tired of these hundred different stories and you eventually are looking for refuge. for one or two trusted sources. >> for you tune out altogether. >> exactly. we know that there was one way of brainwashing exercise in
communist countries. just you starved. now it is the opposite. you're fed up with so much information that he cannot verify so you run away. just look for some competing sources and try to just at the end of the day, it should be your opinion. because it's important to understand when there's a story there or there is an opinion. try to make a distinction for the facts and interpretation. because they are quite good at this tackiness together. there's a story but there's always -- trying to see where the factual ends and the opinion that they want you to buy begins. when fake news intelligence ends and human creativity
begins. [laughter] >> exactly could i do not like the term great news. someone who is a practitioner of news. i think it is propaganda. an oxymoron. >> but again, that is the part of this technology. it allows bad guys to promote their agenda. and it's always easier to find the destructive ends for new technology than something that is more productive. >> here's another audience question about the same subject. what is the role of ai in big data in targeting fake news, targeted to individuals and what will it be going forward? this really just a sort of -- >> absolute, that's important. a few weeks ago facebook has announced that they would hire 3000 people to join their machines to fight fake news. >> that's within your book! >> absolutely. because no matter how well
played the machine or how smart the machine, the human machine. that is one of the key lessons from my chess matches from blue and other computers and also experiments with humans and machines. the human will always beat the machine. it's very important that the human behind the machine, as the correction it should not necessarily be the greatest expert. i would argue that you would rather have a good operator than a strong player. supporting the machine. because -- okay. >> explained that a little more. >> look at the ratings. we talk about ratings. so the world champion is really
no -- something at the. it was 2880. my p 20 years ago, it was 2851. most of the players 2700 top players. inflation.but we are talking that this 27 inch 1-800 category. she say play with a rating of 3300. now, that if you do not have to be very strong player to work with a machine because of your strong theory new player on game. but you realize that your 500 points weaker than the machine. that's why you rather have, you rather have a 2000 player with it is a good machine operator who will be assisting the machine. not trying to make machine as an assistant. so the same things happen i believe it is not only chess but maybe fighting the fake news because it's important for us to understand what is our
role. sometimes maybe we can take -- it's important to know exactly where our creativity adds to the machines intelligence. and i think that is the fake news propaganda battlefield. very important battlefield for humans and ai fighting other humans and ai. it is a new world where the news perception becomes reality. >> here's another audience question. ai already controls wall street. will we let it take over the government as well? >> i am not sure about this. of course the algorithms that go -- >> people have been able to game the stock market to some extent. >> for my limited knowledge, the most successful groups they
are using this combination. human plus machine. it is cooperation that is the most successful. but thinking about the future. we can look in the distant future and you can be concerned about machines maybe they disrupt a role but in chess you have to look at the current moment and see what are the threats today. to make sure that you are not jumping over and thinking about strategy and an endgame while you could be destroyed the middle game. my answer is that those who are so concerned is that instead of panicking, about too much artificial intelligence, in the future we should be truly concerned about the lack of intelligence in the oval office today. [laughter] [applause]
[laughter] >> this is also a question from the audience and there is a lot in your book about this. there has been a lot of concern expressed by people regarding ai and automation taking all of our jobs. we definitely talk about that. some people have proposed a government backed basic income so that people can deal with the fact that ai is taking over. automation is taking over so many jobs. what you think of the idea of a basic minimum income? >> i would go beyond that because we are not talking about just about scientific problem or social problem or political problem. it is a combination. it is societal. and it is about the vision of the future. yes, we recognize these things are happening. and it is another problem, with technological progress because it is not only technology but is also better medicine which means we live longer.
better diet. people live longer and they can work longer and they would like to be active. at the same time the more jobs that are entering the market they are connected to new technology. it is difficult for them because of their age to learn. it is another paradox which means we have to look more for a comprehensive solution. that's all i am saying don't try to save the jobs, about people. how we can integrate them into this new world. i think the many opportunities and we have to make sure that people will find something for them to do because new technology will generate economic growth and more resources. it is not just about basic income. it is about finding a way to make sure that people in the 40s 50s and 60s, they will have something to do because some jobs will be lost but some opportunities will be found. let's have this big debate.
it is a serious debate that includes every aspect of society. the worst thing that we can do is pretend that let's slow down. let's postpone the decision somebody else will make it. >> that is essentially what we are doing. how do we bring back coal jobs? >> absolutely. trying to at the same time to debate through climate change and saving jobs that are clearly contradiction. again, it is not hypocrisy. >> we say something that is very hopeful. we often do our best thinking under pressure. we are clearly under a lot of pressure right now. what are, speaking of the societal debates we should be having an conversations we should be having. what are the big questions you think we should be asking? >> let me just start with this chest metaphor because chess
has been used very often to explain certain moves and political moves. i heard during some of moments like syria of obama played checkers and vladimir putin played chess. and i had to protect the integrity of my game. they do not play chess because it is a game of strategy and a game of transparency. under present information transparent. we do not know what your opponent is planning but you do not have the resources to harm you. >> and it is a level playing field. >> dictators always look for short-term resolutions. tactical moves. the game where they can enjoy their advantage of not being constrained by this parliament, by the free press, by public opinion. the country of democracy should
enjoy this. it is about building the strategy. vision of the future. institutions that will work beyond the tenure of a president or a senator or whoever is behind the plan. so far, these debates, political debates -- there being centered around, it is all very short-term. so what we do now just to get some votes tomorrow? and that next presidential election. but that is not a way to move forward. democracy of the free world must eventually come up with the comprehensive vision of the future. what will the future look like 10 years from now, 50 years from now? it's important to start discussing parameters of that and looking for long-term
strategic solutions to this tactical responses. to the problems that have been popping up all the time. >> we just out of time so i think the opportunity to quote - from your book. which is that you trust young people who are growing up with technology to be smart about this. and your advice to the rest of us is, i hope you take this as an invitation to take an active role in creating the future that you want to see. >> absolutely! this is unique opportunity to participate or someone that work in a communist country, i appreciate it. and again it is now the moment where you can see how your participation can change things. and how your inaction also changes things in the wrong direction. always try to make moves. >> nice! our thanks to garry kasparov, chairman of the human rights
foundation. [applause] former world chess champion and author of the new book which i highly recommend, "deep thinking: where machine intelligence ends human creativity begins". i also want to think the audience here on radio television and the internet and for all your great questions. we want to remind everyone that copies of his books are on sale in the lobby and he will be pleased to sign them on stage following the program. if you will please remain seated immediately following the program a member of the club staff will provide details on the signing. i am holly kernan, vice president of news at kqed and now the meeting of the commonwealth club of california, the place where you are in the know, is an adjourned. [laughter] [applause]
>> tomorrow on c-span2. a discussion about relations between the us, japan and south korea. posted by the international student conferences and -- probation live coverage begins at 8:00 a.m. eastern time. later, mitchell institute for aerospace studies hosts a discussion about the future of air warfare. watch that live that when eastern time on c-span2 and c-span.org. or listen live with the c-span radio app. >> see stan's washington journal. live every day with news and policy issues that impact you. coming up thursday morning, we focus the entire program on the nations infrastructure. starting with congress in the trump administration approaches to infrastructure spending.we talk with the senior congressional reporter first
transportation. then state and infrastructure spending with frederick right. executive director of the american association of state highway and transportation officials. and rand corporation will discuss how to make federal infrastructure spending more efficient. be sure to what see stan's washington journal live at seven eastern thursday morning. during -- and join the discussion. >> the book "geek girl rising: inside the sisterhood shaping up tech" talks about silicon valley startups. the co-authors heather cabot and sam walravens talked about the book and women in the tech sector. this is one hour.