tv Adm. James Stavridis Ret. Sea Power CSPAN January 5, 2018 11:11pm-12:02am EST
of the u.s. naval war college. also an author seven brooks and 100 articles about procedures and leadership. even his wife laura since retiring as us at prima allied commander in europe from the school of law and diplomacy in boston the very same place he got his doctorate. has 113 civilian awards from around the world and in within the last 11 months he has been considered for a vice
presidential pick and as secretary of state by another. [laughter] when jim speaks people listen. they listen very carefully. i am glad to see so many people here tonight that have come to listen. so to have insight with the global state of affairs we are very fortunate to have them here tonight i cannot wait to read. [applause]
>> normally when people hear that introduction, thank thank you. that was very kind. they have one overwhelming reaction when they meet me in person which is i thought you would be taller. [laughter] we will take just a couple of minutes to talk about the oceans of the world today. so often looking at a map of the world but 70% of the planet are the oceans. by the way 70% of your body is composed of water. and here is another one. 70% of the oxygen that you breathe comes from photosynthesis in the ocean.
the british say the oceans are one and connect everywhere. tonight talking about the oceans i invite you to think about 70% of of this water world we inhabit today. what i will do is very quickly take 20 minutes walking through the oceans to try and tie that together with the challenges we face and what we ought to do about it. starting with the pacific, 1589 chart of the pacific by a cartographer you can see the polynesian who would voyage 5000 miles 10000 years ago. as i got ready to get underway
in san diego with my 500-foot destroyer i said to my crew of 300 the pacific is dangerous. we should be on our toes. can you imagine getting on the outrigger by thousand miles? this is an ancient sea. the polynesian did this. the largest of the oceans. pacific 170 million square kilometers. all the land in the world and goes inside the pacific ocean. it is enormous and ancient. it has been failed for century -- sales for centuries. here are two ships you know that it is the nina the
pent-up and the santa maria that christopher columbus sailed 1492. that behemoth was from the same time. and was the flagship of the chinese 420 feet long with six decks and 500 mariners it would more the ship christopher, columbus sailed we need to know how china used the pacific has an ancient and enormous sea. in the american mind what do we think about the pacific typically? world war ii with the attack
on pearl harbor and the campaign to retake the pacific , a period of time in the early 40s when the united states not only hundreds of ships but hundreds of aircraft carriers. today we have 12. we dominated the pacific. it tends to inculcate that dna but another nation is rising as an ancient nation civilization of china. chinese ballistic missile nuclear powered submarines. highly capable. they are here as examples as the rise of the chinese fleet over the last decade now with two aircraft carriers they are
building on a constant increase this is a pacific century building the largest commercial centers by china on the right at chinese worship proudly pulling into the port at pearl harbor. china is on the move it has a historical claim to the south china sea roughly as though the united states would claim to on the gulf of mexico. china's belief they ancient and territorial right is the result of all of those voyages and as a result they owned
that water space and the hydrocarbons under it. 80% of the pacific trade passes through the south china sea. to reinforce this claim they are building artificial islands and reefs. many of them. thousands and militarizing them. each one becomes an aircraft carrier for which china seeks to operate to reinforce their claim under international law. fortunately we have allies like japan which is increasing military spending and is more inclined to operate beside us. south korea. a booming economy, new presiden president, our allies are the heart of our
maritime strategy and it is good we have them because we have an enormous tactical problem they are a strategic challenge. north korea. this is kim jong who kim jong who kim jong on because he is unstable and untested and morbidly obese addicted to opioids with a bad haircut. and he is building ballistic missiles that can range great distances over time to create nuclear weapons and fly them over the pacific. we have a significant challenge here that is a good thing because it provides a confluence of interest between the united states and china in the pacific.
turning to the atlantic as we skip around this is how the book is structured as a history of the ocean with current geopolitics the atlantic is the ultimate transit zone and it begins with the great mariners who come from spain and portugal everyone would recognize christopher columbus the greatest of navigators is magellan. or to open the route to africa in the indian ocean. they transit the atlantic to create a global economy. we think of world war i and
world war ii as a determination to resupply the european to create a transit zone, convoy, two small hinges they are swinging big doors. are they would not have succeeded. that is the view of the atlantic. we are challenged today by vladimir putin but our problem we keep looking for that strategic terrain on this map and it's not there. the strategic terrain is right here. with vladimir putin. he is rebuilding the russian navy.
this is a brand-new russian forget highly capable in the next three years russia will add 100 ships to their fleet. we will be challenged on our coast, greenland, iceland, united kingdom and the gap he a resurgent russia in the atlantic because we see a resurgent china in the pacific. turning to the third largest ocean is the indian ocean. with the pacific 160 million kilometers the indian ocean is a tad smaller but you can take the entire landmass of the united states times three and put it in the indian ocean. those spice routes increase
those hydrocarbons with geopolitical carbon pakistan has its own cold war manifesting we see piracy around the edges and off the coast of yemen, the interplay of shia supporting the rebels and saudi arabia the goal states supporting the government of yemen with united states leaning toward saudi arabia. this is playing out in the maritime theater. we ought to consider the number one challenge of the indian ocean is right here. i ran. the iranian flag. it sees itself as an imperial
power. seeking to re-create the persian empire. this is the battle flag. i'm darius the great and the flag today. look at the water space around the persian empire. with all of this to bring confrontation between the upper right shia nation and bottom left led by saudi arabia and our closest ally is israel and the very -- united states very much involved. not only south china sea, atlantic and persian gulf and waters of indian ocean. what else? the mediterranean. how many of going on a cruise to the mediterranean? quite a few.
a wonderful place but the mediterranean sea of all the world oceans has seen the most combat and most war war. to bring back all of the dead mariners at the bottom we would cover the mediterranean sea this is the epic maritime battle in which a christian coalition led by the austrian hungarian empire it is the place where war at sea began. today the challenge is in the eastern mediterranean.
dictator anwr criminal with a coastline on the eastern mediterranean and this is what it looks like. confrontation between the united states and russia. that is the russian flag and the nations are in conflict not only of geopolitics but also the hydrocarbons. this is an area of the world rich under the sea of oil and natural gas. the nations will compete. indeed. it leads to this. refugees and look at that boat. picture yourself on that. these are deeply deeply conflicted waters with huge humanitarian challenges with
great issues at play. coming little closer to home in florida. the caribbean that we know well. i am a florida native by the way. born in west palm beach on the most expensive side of town. [laughter] it is rich in tradition and history but today from u.s. perspective with the panama canal two thirds of maritime trade passes through the canal run by the canadians and has been expanded but there are challenges here. maritime challenges. they will see natural disasters plagued the area and then the challenge of narcotics. let me show you a hopeful photograph.
that's what under my fragile democracy creates corruption. driven by demand in the united states. luckily, we are partners who focus on the transit but never solved it. we need to work on the supply side and we need to work on the demand side in the united states and address medically the challenges here. let's go north to the arctic. on the left is a doomed vessel. it sailed empowered itself into the high north in the mid- 19th century. private public expedition. got caught in the ice and most of the crew got were lost. even as late as the 19th century we had no idea what was in the high north.
today is a fact, the ice is melting. we can have a big debate about the science of global warmer, i'm here's a mariner. the ice is melting. the sea lanes of communication will open. hydrocarbons will be available and significant countr significt competition in the high north. this could be a real cold war overtime. rush on one side of this arctic and five nato nations, u.s., canada, denmark, iceland, norway on the other side. because of the ice melting it will create a real geopolitical challenge. there's something called the arctic council. nato on one side in russia on the other. let's hope we can find a way to
have diplomacy to avoid further conflict in the high north. we don't have enough icebreakers. we have one. denmark, a nation of 4 million people have six. russia has dozens. china has 12 and is building more. we need to step up our game if we can operate in the high north. lastly, let me turn to the outlaw see. the oceans are the largest crime scenes in the world. pollution, dumping. piracy. fishing, underreported, under regulated comic catches a protein done 60% in the oceans
are warming. we could have a debate about why but it is a fact. environmentally we face a long-term challenge because her oxygen comes from the ocean. with all respect al gore, who told us many times the amazon are the lungs of the earth, that's not right. the ocean are the lungs of the world. right about now you're to say okay, i'm worried. you took us on a ten minute voyage. what you think? what are the opportunities to create better security and harness the oceans responsibly? what would this admiral who wrote the naval strategy of the united states 150 years ago, what would he say?
was the first thing we should do to make sure we can continue to be a seapower? the number one thing we should do is listen more. this gentleman is listening, this is from about 80 years ago and early air defense system. but i put it in here as a metaphor. we need to study and understand we should listen to our opponents this is a newport
island, this is what we can do tonight. we can stop and listen we can learn to converse, agree and disagree in a responsible way. we can have a dialogue and build intellectual capital to understand our oceans. we can also hold on to our values. they come to us from the ancient greeks, they drop in the united states through the enlightenment. probably the best portrait ever made through the founding fathers we need to hold those values. principal value to think about is our responsibility for future
generations and are geopolitical concerns. i'm in a wonderful bookstores. i am so proud to be here. we can read more. we can read magazines like the economists in the magazine with no bylines. people ask me in the serifs fake news where do i turn? try the reading. if you read the economist cover to cover once a week, you'll get 80 plus% of what the president is seen. you can read biographers, once read a novel? the cruel sea, heartbreaking story of life at sea and war.
but above all the oceans. reach back into history reread -- athens, seapower confronting sparker, a lamp hour. what are the echoes of today. >> we need a strong and capable navy. a fleet today is 27 275 ships. under regular we had almost 600. in world war ii we had thousands. we are not in an open war now, when he more than 275. when he 325 - 350 shifts. that's serious analysis. we need to build more but we
need a capable fleet. it's not just about your navy. it's also your coast guard, enjoying partners who work together. look at this photograph. these are pirates being captured. these are french marines who landed in and i tally in military helicopter. portuguese aircraft overhead protecting them based on satellite imagery provided by the -- we want to work with allies, friends and partners to take on challenges together.
in addition to her navy enjoying partners we need our allies and friends. we face china's we must we rely not only on our ships but on japan and south korea and australia to help us. we need the united nations, the un is the backbone of international law. it's a good treaty, we should ratify it. we need more of this. when i was a commander here the kernel over there was my team lead. we filled these hospital ships with doctors and nurses. private-sector, interagency, allied doctors. we had dutch and french we had
everybody. it was the ultimate team sport. many years as an admiral i ordered the deployment of many aircraft carriers and deployment. the most important were these hospital ships. when a public private cooperation. i will conclude the background of this book is not only the politics in the trade and economy. 95% of the world's goods move at sea. i try to communicate what it's like to be a mariner to sail into the arctic. what is it feel like when you approach the coast of china in the dark at night dodging
>> thank you. >> i love to take some questions about issues in the world today, the book, anything. >> on the last picture you had. >> guess i should put new zealand there. also didn't put the -- when i put those three or did so because those are the three largest maritime forces most likely to operate with us. in addition to those three, new zealand, thailand and the philippines are treaty allies. also very close relationship with singapore. they have the most capable navy was likely to operate with us.
>> i like to ask is your commander your experiences with latin america near unrest in venezuela and the challenges there in terms of refugees or piracy. >> you've hit the dark end of the spectrum would be a complete collapse of order in the nation which could lead to waves of refugees. more likely third move across the border to columbia. but some probably would take to see. and don't think it's a maritime problem but an enormous potential humanitarian crisis. already, within venezuela is becoming increasingly difficult
to find the basic necessities of life. let us hope that maduro does the right thing which is not to create a new loan for parliament and jim a new constitution through. let us hope that he allows the current rule of law to follow. support the organization of states to put pressure on him to do the right thing. we should feel very positive resampled colombian brazil who are helping with that and putting immediate pressure on. in terms of impacts on the united states, not significant. not with hydrocarbons.
it's much more humanitarian crisis. the united states should not take the frontline in this. because maduro could create a target. we need to use our allies and friends in the nation. let others take the lead. >> my questions about the north. in the changing patterns in the trade that could happen in the north of there is no longer polar ice cap and russia's long-standing desire for a port. can you give a 20 year outlook on that? >> assuming that global warming continues within 20 years we'll see ceilings of communication and shipping lanes open all year long.
that means we need systems of buoys, search and rescue, ensure that mariners operate safely in those waters, a huge crude carrying tankers. we need to create a regime. we need a cooperative relationship with russia. the problem is we have an extreme geopolitical confrontation in the invasion of ukraine in the intrusion into our election using cyber. i believe we should use the arctic council which i highlighted for you and take a pragmatic approach that says will confront where we must on the crucial issues for let's find zones of cooperation. the arctic could be one of those zones.
i'm cautiously optimistic that we can preserve this environment. when that has never no more. it's in their interest as well as ours. >> you mentioned a confrontation with china or the south china sea. seems britain had a similar issue around the turn-of-the-century when they felt like the crib and was at sea and britain could confront the united states or let them take control of the caribbean because they had more desperate threats. seems to me china can believe this is their seed. do they pose such a threat?
slick most of the area looks at our control. >> mexico, cuba, jamaica, china bad and tobago to not look to u.s. control of the caribbean. what china is attempting to do would be to take territorial control and make it a territorial sea. the analogy breaks down because of the chinese desire. it's fair to say it's reasonable for us to believe china ought to have significant influence in asia. that makes sense. the wish that look at territorial control over an enormous body of water. i think the historical analogy
they pulled that was a confrontation between great britain in germany about 100 years ago. an established power facing a rising power. in established powers challenged by rising power. graham allison from harvard has done extensive analysis in 12 of the 16 situations the nations go to war. for they do not. we need to understand china, listen, exceed and cooperate where we can but confront where they push beyond the borders. if we do that i think we can avoid an open confrontation.
>> -- versus a land battle. >> the ocean, the biggest thing is terrain. the oceans are flat. there are no terrain borders. you know how fast you can cross them. you have more known elements in a sea battle on the surface. on land you have enormous obstacles to get over. the challenge is what is happening below the sea. i sometimes the admirals who could see the challenge in front of him. in the admiral today has story about an undersea battle that's three-dimensional. so in admiral has to deal with the surface of the oceans but
his challenges what's happening underneath. he has the advantage with the flatness of the sea but a danger from what's under it. in general has more challenges but they can map thousand doesn't have to deal with the hidden dimension. two different battle mindsets are necessary. >> how would you describe -- the question is, how do you describe the skills of the mariners in the 15 or 16 century and how are they different than today.
today be the mariners easier. your satellites overhead. you have distant surveillance systems both undersea and in the air. the mariners the shoji had to rely on wind and current, pilots order. the last time a take this the prevailing winds were from the northeast. early, mariners wrote navigation navigational systems including eventually longitude. was before. "columbus said by direct
reckoning. they took their ships in a law and plotted on a chart. the estimate how much the current and the winds have push them off. the difference between art and science today. >> rexford say aircraft carriers are thing of the past. i'm not sure i agree with that i'm curious on your take. >> aircraft carriers remain the centerpiece enormous machines of war. it could take the empire state building, lay it on its side that's how long an aircraft carrier is. 100,000 tons, the flight deck
it's 8 acres. it doesn't sell by itself. it's defended by cruisers, submarines, surveillance systems, there well protected they could potentially be hit by a cruise missile. we should rely on the carriers but we should not make them indispensable. we are the capability, we need a balance fleet with 12 carriers data distributed fleet. you want to over rely on them or
should we underestimate them. our opponents focus constantly on the carriers. >> what consequences if any would've occurred at the end of the cold war with united states got out of south korea appears to me that it's an intention call to the united states. we just let the north and south have a local dispute might be a little bit better. >> is a fascinating game to figure out what. my guess would be the entire korean peninsula would be unified subject to china.
you be a chinese state essentially. the recall, the recent the united states went into korea because it was elevated. and so if we had just given up at that point and left the north korean state would've dominated. to give you an idea what it would be like go on google and google the creative slot at night. in the north there's a single point of light. everything else is black. if we had not stayed the bottom half would be unilluminated as well. are about to sign some books for you thank you.
[inaudible] >> this weekend, the city's tour takes you to springfield, missouri. work with media come to explore the literary scene in the birthplace of route 66 in missouri. >> at noon eastern on book tv jeremy neely talks about the conflict occurring rather kansas missouri border in his book, the border between the. >> john brown begins a series of raids into western missouri.
during which his men will liberate and help escape to freedom. the legend is really part of the struggle that people understand is the beginning of the war. >> on 2:00 p.m. we visit the nra national sporting arms museum. >> roosevelt was probably are shooting as president. an avid hunter. the first thing he did when he left office was to go on a very large . it has the presidential seal engraved on the breach. roosevelt was famous for the bull moose party.
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three. >> mark moyar is a director for the center of diplomatic history. he talked about his book at the heritage foundation in washington, d.c. this is one hour. >> good morning. welcome to the heritage foundation. we welcome us for joining us on the website and on c-span tv. please silence your mobile devices. we will post today's program on the homepage for everyone's future reference.