readers. and in some ways those are more consequential in terms of the sales of the book or that report and factor. >> and terrifying to read like amazon review i say is like one star. but this book i ordered this book on such and such a date and it took 11 days and package wases ripped it is like one star. i had nothing to do. [laughter] i don't deliver the freaking book lady. you know? anyway we're out of time. we're out of o time. but give it up for scott and it shall -- [applause] and the final author panel from this year's writers festival is

a disdiscussion on political candidates and elections. with karl rogge suzanne eisenhower and tim miller for jeb bush 2016. >> please welcome to the stage -- eisenhower -- [inaudible conversations] with moderator ben gordon star. [inaudible conversations] okay. >> put in a good word with the organizers that was the reason i was late getting on the stage. they're keeping us about five feet apart it is just -- well that's nice. [laughter] oh -- would you mind extending cane so i can see how far i need to be

away. are we set? okay. let me first of all express my appreciation for your turning out for this event. on behalf of susan and tim and karl. e deeply appreciated. we owe a special debt to karl this is his 23rd panel in 36 hours. [applause] i understand the best panel was at 1 a.m. in had the parking lot of the supermarket across the street from the hotel. and those of you who were in your jammies i know who you are. [laughter] let me say to the panel, when we run out of o time here, i'd like each of you to name a book that

you think qowb mosten lightening, helpful -- to anyone in the political system who is considering campaign for president. mow, last year -- the winning suggestion was emily post and her book courtesy. [laughter] so you can't do that this year. [laughter] i think we're in place and set to go. i would be very happy if the three of you carried this conversation by yourself. i don't think that i'm until any position to add a great deal. but i will jump in if i feel that we're teetering towards the edge. i guess my first question is, is what, what would be the impact

if the democrats won control of congress an there indeed was a impeachment effort? what would that look and feel like and what would the impact be on the people of america 45% of whom in a recent poll feel that trump has den a pretty good job? and susan why don't we start with you and march down this way? >> impeachment is a very serious thing. and i think we have to be aware of the fact that there are many people who don't feel that the last year has been a fair year. nobody has concentrated on the nations business particularly. we have heard nothing but stories and gossip and speculation on television every day. and i -- i really are fear for our country if we start this cycle.

this cycle of impeachment and then a kind of chaos that emerges from that. if you look at the other damaging results of the impeachment efforts in the past, this is a very, very serious thing. now i also take this seriously. u because i spent the line share of my career traveling to russia and former soviet union. i can barely stand what i hear on television because they never tin viet experts to come on to talk about russia. is the situation is way, way more complicated in all of this. some of the mings that come up on television are actually not only legal but perfectly normal for people who are engaged in international affairs. now, if there was any collusion, i mean, real collusion not just speculation about collusion and this is a very, very serious

thing. very serious thing indeed but i would ask all of my colleagues in washington i'm still living there. you know that old expression that washington is hollywood with unattractive people. [laughter] let me tell you, you know, they're looking more and more unattractive all of the time so -- this is a serious thing it's a very, very tough place to be. and i don't think we're looking at the nation's problem it is in the right way. we don't have a strategy for everybody in this country. and -- impeachment a serious impeachment effort without unassailable causes behind that measure would cause untold damage i think to our country. [applause] well up until about four months ago i don't think i would have had any special insight into the mindset of the liberal base of

the democratic party. but i joined as the token republican for a liberal news outlet new one called crooked media i'm only republican that writes for them and i moved 5 minutes from berkeley border so i gained a little bit of insight into the miengsdset of what can be grassroots left thinks right now, and let me tell you there's going to be enormous pressure on the democratic politicians if they take over the house to pursue some type of impeachment facts going to be -- i think that the 2020 candidates will feel enormous pressure to support that kind of impeachment because that's -- essentially what the rank and file democrat base want from them. so that sense the 2018 house elections are very important because it will have -- it will result in inevitably that impact at least feel the the pressure to do so. it is possible that they would relent that i wouldn't expect that.

and as far as with the impact of that will be, i don't think i have much to add we're a country that has you know become more and deep fissure trying to deep elected but duly elected with probably at that time 30, 40% approval, is only going to fissure it more. >> yeah. i agree with -- with susan and said i would add this observation but let's assume they do so my winning swing districts and the pressure that tim talked about of the left of the democratic party that you've got to be for this or you're out. is going to require one or two things it is either going to result in one or two things but either result in a lot of democrats in seatses seatses the they require independent republican vote to get elected this is not nancy pelosi's district or barbara lee's district but a swing district in the midwest to require them to

walk the plank and they'll be gone after one term regardless of what happens on the impeachment. or it will -- really result in the house of representatives failing to -- failing to approve impeachment resolution supported by virtually all democrats opposed by every republican and some democrats in the democratic party will be even more split going into 2020. this is not a -- you know, i agree most important thing is bad for the country. really bad for the krpght will you also bad for the democrats unless as tim say there's clear and convincing evidence of impeachable offense and you saw a little bit of this play out inside the republican party in the failed impeachment of guy who had sex with an intern in the hallway off of the oval office and then lied about it costing him his law license and republicans overplayed and finding themselveses in 2,000 had we had a candidate who stoodz up and said you know i'm going to make this an issue in the the campaign and bill clinton's behavior it would have been more damaging to the party but instead george bush refused

to talk about it at all and simply said he would restore honor to the white house there shall avoiding issue. but it could have done damage to us in 2000 and it did do damage to us an a lot more dj to democrats in 2020. susan. smg i would like to add here standing back and looking back at the -- various trends we're moving more to a parliamentary system without advantages of the parliamentary system in other words no opportunity to go to the country to -- reestablish credibility. the point being is that now today political parties are really only running races to benefit their bases. we don't have any leaders that i can see coming along with a strategy for the entire country. on either side where we could actually make a choice and live with that choice for four years. i'm a registered independent

this was a choice i'm still waiting for both parties to talk to me and in a way that -- i regretted i would love to join a party again and i would love to go back to the republican party. i'm sympathetic to various elements of both parties. but do you know that there are 39% of the electorate in this country are independence? which is a larger group in both republicans and democrats. so this is really a sign when 39% of the electorate chooses not to be a member of either party. and so -- i think all kinds of things that feels like it is a fluid situation at the moment. >> so what, i'm living i'm a corporate spouse and i'm living in california. what is your sense as you suffer through berkeley and oakland? [laughter] what is your sense of the politic it is in this state and -- is there ever going to be a

republican party here? >> i think the biggest party for republicans in congress right now is national republican brand which has been -- good, obviously, in many states around the country as we have a record number of governs but is not particularly good here in california to not to say the least. the problem is that since arnold there's not been a republican in the state that could really separate themselves out from a national brand that's, you know, culturally and demographically very, very different from what's happening here in the state of california. >> i have i'm very pessimistic by nature about what we have to come here in the politics for next half decade or so with regard to most things. that said, i do feel like there is a lane in california for republican at some point in the mid-welcome mid-future to run a essentially trump without the -- without the nationalism kind of

campaign. and i think that increasefully you see a frustration in a fracturing of the democrats within the state over over pocketbook issues and a big gas tax spike coming up this year if the price of housing in california is, is insane so ting that if you sort of separated out some of the things that are -- that are unappealing but problem is they have to have money and resources to do so. and they would have to be able to have the public presence like arnold did because of his celebrity to separate himself out. that's a kind of a magic -- white wail to a certain degree but i do think it is possible. >> karl. i keep reading that the republicans are going to lose texas. that the demographics are better that next few years texas is going to be a democratic state.

>> yeah. >> well with i keep hearing that. thus far the democrats have not come up with a candidate for governor in the 2018 election. in the filing deadline is passed. now, look i'm from texas we're not really good on math and took me a while to figure this out but see if you can follow me on this. texas has a higher percentage in the population that is latino than the national average. texas has a higher percentage of the population than is african-american than the national average. texas has a higher percentage of the population that is asian american than the national average. there shall, i conclude that texas has a smaller percentage of whites than the national average. and yet we're a deep, red state. and the the reason is because republicans routinely get routinely get 40 to 45% of the latino vote. routinely. our governor became the second governor elected with 50% of the latino vote in his --

his first election he did so by running a television ad and television ad was emblematic was what was going on in his campaign and television ad features his mother-in-law saying nice things about him. [laughter] latinos looked at it and said wait a minute his mother-in-law is one of us. he's married to one of us. and they looked at it and said that could get his mother-in-law to say nice things about him. [laughter] but -- when bush ran for relocation as governor in 1998 as second republican since 1872 to be governor of texas, the majority of our statewide ticket were not white men. they were the minority. women latinos, african-americans, and asian americans made up a majority of our statewide ticket. now as long as texas republicans keep that mindset, of we're all in this together. our state speaks not merely to one group or another group but

speaks to all texans we'll be all right and we keep hearing this democrats had thingsing wendy davis was great hope to demolish the -- the republican party with this, and you know, anybody know who their candidate for u.s. senate is? anybody know who the democrat candidate for governor likely to be? they don't even have a full ticket statewide. and yet these are same people who say oh count on it. it is destiny the more latinos we get the more, the more we're going to be a democratic state. well, we're busily converting those latinos and running them for office. >> susan. >> i'm sorry. on what question? >> well, i thought you had something you wanted to -- throw in? >> no. what will be the major national issue in november of this year is that going to be the

impeachment or is it there a come felling national issue that could be, that could be crystallized into the primary concern susan? >> no i would say -- you know, it's a question of what the issue is going to be versus what it should be. and what because afterall we know that the media shapes much of what the -- what the campaign is going to offer. what i think the issues ought to be is how this country is going to stay solvent, i mean, i -- don't think there's any question that we -- unless something happens we're going to see a ballooning of our budget deficit. and we e see absolutely no effort as far as i can make out. to tbail u through through coherent strategy for our international obligation and i say this is really important because for all of the

discussion weave had in last couple of days i've heard no discussion about the billions and billions of dollars we're spending overseas and what we're getting as a result of that. and i think those are larger issues but i dare say that we will be down in the weeds about pocketbook issues well in advance of knowing what the results are, rf our new tax reform bill. >> i honestly don't think major issues will be about tax reform i think that will be long past. i think that smartly a lot of republican candidates will have -- will be running positive ad campaigns about effect of that. because there's a huge right now distance between the public perception on what the tax reform bill does and what had it actually does in the negative. right it has beginning to be much better for the pocketbook so -- ordinary americans than many realize at this point. but frankly, the major issues in the in the discussion and lead yum to november are whatever the

hell donald trump wants them to know. >> you know donald trump has outsized control over what is -- what is happening in the news. but he does not have the self-control to be able to stick to a spisk specific message so for me to sit here in i can and say well november we're going to be talking about tax reform or o the budget is silly because in october, you know donald trump will, you know, likely send out a tweet about, you know, senators underware or something to that efnght. and that's what people are going to be talking about in october. and so -- i think that -- whim about donald trump is second and what happens over next two months will be immigration. because of there will either be a -- a landmark at the border security in daca or o there won't be and that will be the big oustanding issue facing the -- facing the next congress.

>> i'm a deficit but not talking about that this fall because he took it off saying he wasn't going to change medicare or social security so in which the average two person two couple working two person working couple put in 118,000 and medicare taxes over the course of their life, and take out 320,000 worth of benefit to leave the 200,000 plus on the credit card with their kids name on it. so we're not going to be talking about that. but we ought to be talking about is what tim touched on. the economy. think about it last fall immigration was in fourth fourth issue down at 13% the economy was at 52%. and he's also right it be the tax cut. there's no harvard poll out 20% believe they're going to get a tax cut in 2018. 30% think they will not o get a tax cut and 50% don't know. and what happens with that 50% who don't know and if there's

any decline in the 30% who don't think they're going to get a tax cut is going to have a big impact on -- whether or not the the republicans have the landscape in which they can run and win. but he's absolutely right. i mean it is question of are these candidates going to stay focused? and is the president to going to stay out of their way. couple of weeks ago he made a statement his people made a statement that they were, president was looking forward to campaigning and spending most of 2018 out on campaign trail for candidates. and i wrote a column in response to it saying don't do it. because -- the best thing you can do is try to be president and focus on the people's business don't be -- going because when he gets in front of those crowds at those rallies the self-control completely dissipates. that's when he says really qeerd things. and if he wants to have a republican majority in the house and senate, and not have them nipping at had women committees even they don't impeach him in the house o let me just you i have served two years in the house with a democratic house of representatives it was like going to the frocktologist

without a an anesthesiologist. [laughter] >> do you have any parallel attitude when you read newspaper or watch television now? >> parallel to what? >> not having an anesthesiologist i guess? >> well you know look, one there were a lot of really good things about the white house and a lot of really bad things about serving white house is now i can look at this with be mused, distant skepticism. so -- where do you get your news? >> i read in the morning i read "the new york times," "the washington post," and, of course, if i lead off with the wall street journal and i get -- >> i didn't realize you were a consumer of the fake news media testimony only exactly. exactly. fiction after fiction. exactly i get the guys to do news dwrairksly kept me on the list so i get something like the

white house news summary. i read the newsletter from politico and news political newsletters from access, and then i surf as only a norwegian with no balance whatsoever can surf. [laughter] and whatever possible i read whatever tim miller writes but he hides it in distant part of the web. >> miller you need to do more -- >> twitter feed if you dare. [laughter] >> i have 650,000 people on my twitter feed who the hell are these people and when are they going to get a life? great question. >> start -- tim what do you read? >> in the morning i read access newsletter like karl and i read ben newsletter called the conservative policy newsletter. i can't watch cable anymore honestly. i don't watch one minute of it. i dvr when karl is on. but besides that i get the

transcripts sent to me of karl when he's on set i don't have to watch it but cable is just terrible. there's no -- bret baier show is okay, and that's really it. there's nothing else on cable that is even watchable. >> fox news sunday? >> that's not cable. >> dana -- >> dana new show is good. hammer that's good, and i wanted to test limits. but -- you're dead here i'm telling him. but that's all right. we can go at it. but when i used to be on news -- it's okay. but besides that i -- punish myself with twitter most of the day. and just take it, take it to what i find to be interesting. >> i must be only -- do we have a psychiatrist in the house with a available -- [inaudible conversations] pnches i'm probably only one here that -- reads not only "the new york times" and the washington post, but i read an array of foreign press to see how our issues

are -- being projected overseas so this gets to be a source of great deal of concern the way they're talking about what's going on in our country actually -- this from my perspective -- the biggest national security secret is that question can't governor ourself os very well anymore. it's a national security issue. >> where did you get your foreign news? >> i have a set of links and i -- read certainly can scan through british papers i read some in the middle east and i check out russia elsewhere. >> forget your russian news? >> actually the easiest thing first of all the idea that it shall putin has a lock on everything he's got a lock on the broadcast media. but if you want to read overheated editorials about how -- putin shob kicked out of o office and things like that you

would want to be reading moscow news which is it shall sorry moscow times which is actually in english. they have remarkably open debate about what putin or should not be doing in this campaign and give a lot of space to -- the opposition. so you know, i check in with that largely to actually see how -- the development it is in this country are being interpreted overseas. >> amount at the none of the first of the day but later in the morning i get a newsletter from the foundation for the defense of democracies which has got pretty good links to a lot of what you're talking about there in both the international press and then columnists here. and then for economic news later in the morning i get -- i get it early in the morning but i save it until i got some time e-21 a great website out of new york that has really good and what's really good is they have economic where it is sort of like here's the question of the day and here's something from the left here's something from the right. so you're able to get a lot

sense of how the debate is framing up. >> karl, what -- i read the newspapers. having worked on newspapers for quite some time. and i am just stunned by the absolute absence of fairness and balance. it is, it is, it is just alarming. i find a lot of facts but all of the facts are positioned in a way to represent what the newspapers prevailing sentiment may be. do you think journalism will ever go back to where it was? or is journalism now going to be a business of well educated, young people who are attempting to refashion the country if not the world? >> yeah. i think we've gone through a brief golden moment of sort of journal iism that was aimed at

facts and information and explaining the events in the moment. it was proceeded by a long period in which the press was highly partisan. obviously, print. and then we had this brief moment where some time maybe after world war ii that newspaper said our job was to -- explain. without bias, and premajor network sort of tried to do it without bias. but then that all began to break down and knew we're back to the wild, wild west we're back to 1800. where it shall you know we have 3,000 newspapers and -- the federalist papers repoint ugly editorials from other federalist newspapers and the democratic republican newspapers reprint all of the editorials from other democratic republican newsletters and reread the thing that sort of feeds our own sensibilities and watch the things that feed our own sensibilities and -- we no longer have sort of a common database of mostly accepted facts and explanations.

andening it is very problematic for democracy it is one of the reasons why -- our trust in our institutions the media and all time low. congress is near an all time low we're back to where we were in 1974 with water gate and presidency supreme court is still relatively lie but lowest level ever. felt two institutions that are retain the trust in the american people are the military and law enforcement. and you can't, you know, have a democracy with, with that's the only thing you trust. so -- >> go ahead. >> i add to that. i think that, there are a lot of negatives about our current media environment including most importantly what karl talked about how we are -- all self-reflecting news and only getting news from people that can firm our prior belief. i'll say if this is a movement, though, towards the future where we put aside kind of the fake -- he said, she said of the past, the fake nonpartisanship of the

past i think that's a good thing. journalists are human who have points of view and idea with this golden age in the 80s you know where -- dan rather was calling it like he saw it on cbs it is just not true. right journalists always had a more liberal, more -- elite point of view. i think that now -- >> don't you think, more subtle but i think that -- ting that they were advancing their point of view -- but trying to cover to up in this kind of sense of nonbias and i think that moving more towards this is particularly in political news, obviously, an area for hard news. where journalists have to report facts so moving to a place in political news where people acknowledge their biases on the front isn't necessary uly a bad thing and i think that -- to your initial question about what -- about the current news environment in hostility to the president i think that's true. oivelg 100% of the journalists

did not vote for a president trump. so there's an inherent. >> voted for republicans -- and president in the biggest crowd ever for inaugural. [applause] bias but because of karl jokes, though, it brings up the fact that -- really president has himself to blame for this. i think that he could have moral high ground about the bias against him if he was not constantly advancing anything from white lies to bald face lies and constantly forcing the media to cover his kind of buffoon tweets and behavior and i think that if he -- if he was doing what i think a lot of advisors wish he would do and what karl said he should do earlier is focus on governorring the country they might have to complaining l press so in short it is kind of on both houses at this point as far as i'm concerned. >> you know i would like to follow up on both of their houses i think you're absolutely right but i would say actually

sit manager washington it looks like there's a -- complete and total feedback loop, and in other words, the news media says he's terrible but they've never seen their more papers sold. they've never had so many hits on their blogs. they've never, i mean, they're making money hand over fist if you look at the advertising that goes with -- political commentary so they're making money on a president who loves to have attention. and so it's this big circular thing. my big concern about these campaigns is that, that this kind of thing is going to continue and it is going to continue to alienate the public because we have a lot of things that we have to get sorted out. and with we're not going to have that conversation. we're probably going to be deprived of it in the midterms because we're still in the middle of this money making drama. and -- >> it's going to be an interesting test to sort of the general theory that each

presidential election is in some degree particularly after eight years, a reaction to the previous election. >> right. >> so we have 1960 -- jfk, you know, we have i'm the young energized guy opposed to senior eisenhower administration sort of question need a new frontier and new generation of leadership. you know 1976, reaction to 19 27 and "watergate" 1980 reaction to 1976, and maybe the -- the question is going to be whether the next one is says -- we really want somebody who can govern and somebody who can unify and restore a certain sense of what we thought the presidency was about. or not -- >> right. maybe call me an optimist but my gut tell mess tells me i get a sense people are getting worn out whether they like him or don't like him i think they're getting worn out. [applause] they'll clap for that. republicans or democrats

actually i speak to more republicans than i speak to democrats but i do have democrat friends. [laughter] and i do speak to democratic audience and -- >> u jewish lawyer -- >> you have democratic -- >> two jewish lawyers actually but what is their religious affiliation have to do with that? >> making it a show -- >> so exactly. where was i going with that? i think other thing, though, is that i think both republicans and democrats attitude is -- back to your phrase both houses will you please get together to get something done and act like adults. >> adults. i'll take, i'll take contrary view to karl. elected president -- >> you're supposed to be idealistic. hopefully karl is right in his -- resumé will speak to that. but i don't -- i don't sense that the democratic party is looking for somebody who is going to bring governess. >> not suggesting democrats but

i'm suggesting ordinary people. >> but they have to nominate somebody donald trump again or whoever the democrats nominated and i just -- there's not a lot of evidence right now that people are looking for somebody who is going to be able to bring comedy overwhelming number of people maybe not type of people that come panels want it. but i think that at least right now if you look at society democrats are looking for fight or night and what i would suggest is they put up boring senators next time and they'll run the same will get to relive the same history that we just landed it in 2016 and there will be a socialist like bern knee or select or o somebody who -- >> i koct agree with you more. i think the democrats face a problem if they nominate biden uncle joe has a good chance of being drunk. if they nominate a fire breathing 2020 hopeful who is part of the resistance then that is going to give donald trump his second chance in a row to face the one democrat he can defeat. ...

that's yes sir, no sir no excuses sir. the questions are i'll question sir i'll get it for you sir. how about the no excuses. the thing that really bothers me about this going into impeachment less even than a foreign policy. did anybody ever stand up and apologize for not properly preparing their organization against cyber attacks. no. it's always everybody else's fault. we are a global superpower in cyber capabilities is that of the united states of america. our allies use. in it so we have to take. i've not heard anybody say i'm sorry.

my password was in adequate. that we didn't have cyber classes for people at our institution. if you want to know what worries about me and the continually adjust discussion. it second to be good until we stand up and take responsibility for ourselves. as you scan the news from russia what is being presented to the russian people about the collusion discussion and investigation what does russia see of us. first of all i think they are completely bewildered by what's going on. you do care a lot about them saints that we have turned into a domestic political issue in the united states which i'm sorry to say happens to be true. i have a lot of issues with

that the truth is russia has become innocent and weapon eyes in our domestic political debate. otherwise we should be having a completely different discussion about the election. i for one am sure that many other countries around the world tried to hack the servers of the dnc and the rnc the russians were affected in getting through those barriers. we are fooling ourselves if we think what happened to us is in anyway unique because the united states has one of the biggest offenses in cyber capabilities. we need to have a much more adult conversation. and where interacts with our national security.

as an independent as a person who grew up in a household that was always talking about the long haul i find it depressing. i agree with a lot of what she has to say. there is the silver lining guy. there is one good thing out of this. i never thought in my lifetime that the progressive caucus in the hispanic caucus would become anti- russian in support sanctions. it's completely unified. as a anti- communist reviews vladimir putin as a monarchist comes.

he was a kgb. >> i think he was -- there is no question they are not going to simply had a report on the russian and attempts in the fact that they had conducted the investigation in a way that has not been highly partisan has not been polarized into the senate i would suspect if it comes roaring out of the senate with strong numbers and there's no way the house is not going to adopt the same kind of recommendations. my hope is and i've have a conversation with a couple of members of that committee who are vaguely implying yes we are going to do it.

i am discouraged with the president's response to it. and in the conservative media. and then what they will say about this. if you look at polls right now about what republican voters think that is concerning. the threat of cyber becomes a partisan football where it helps my party it will switch sides on it they are able to impact the political system. when the report comes out.

and we need to resolve it. i really do support them. the more pro. i think we need to get the information from him as soon as possible. and it's a very serious thing. in any suggestion of collusion and they need to know about that. i'm very much in favor of having a united front said this country stands for something. i have no problem with sanctions and other things. i think with be realistic about how effective sanctions are going to be. having said that we should be able to walk and chew gum at the same time. that means we should not only do all of those things that we should also understand that cyber activity is the new frontier. and this is a very serious thing. and for all of us to take it casually.

or to even act like victims here only creates a barrier between ourselves and taking responsibility for our own futures. by getting educated about this. and making sure that we take measures. one of the things my disappointment was. we did had one set of excuses for the behavior of the russians and the in the response to it. when they sent out the spokesman to say basically we didn't want to make it a big public issue. not good enough. we have a yet to do -- a lot to do in that regard. when we needed to and when

they came after us in cyber it was cyber and iran. it's can be higher than any price that you had exacted from us. let's hear your book recommendations. with the strategy a strategy for the long haul. by patrick doherty nickleby wrote a strategic approach for the joint chief of staff. and this one is an excellent way of thinking about how to shape the future. with regard to 2020. i would be amusing myself to death.

no title yet for this book. there will be a book on presidential monarchy. six big decisions are you allowed to identify the author of this important book. we are down to a few seconds. thank you it's great. the trio was just marvelous. and thank you jamie for putting this crowded together.