tv Demographics the Future Political Landscape CSPAN April 17, 2018 12:57am-3:07am EDT
but for what actually happened in 2016 with those key states i texas georgia lord hours concert michigan. and you can see by color-coded iowa texas ohio and georgia north carolina here's a more moderate of public also met the electoral college and the popular vote. so what happens if we change those demographics but hold
everybody else's behavior constant? wisconsin pennsylvania and michigan all go blue the euro wins in 2020 turn into narrow wins by the democratic party in wisconsin pennsylvaniaon michigan. what is interesting about 2016 is a high watermark then going back the republican party so what happens under that scenario?
expect michigan pennsylvania to go democrat but now wisconsin this is a very narrow one point win by the republican party because of that means second district not only by those who in the congressional district and then in a situation where they went home and everybody else stayed the same. so what happens is they go forward? walking through the results with the endpoint just as result of demographic change
and in 2032 arizona and georgia. with democratic wings all the way out. but what i mean by that donald trump is slightly better so what if we see a return with the increased turnout of african-americans and a shift back to the democratic party? this is what happened in 2016 now pennsylvania michigan wisconsin florida north
carolina that barack obama did not win in 2012 but amazingly georgia where enjoying democratic column when interviews states with the african-american population is growinger quickly and as a result the dynamics turning to higher levels that would be a huge win for democrats if this was to occur they would win the electoral college budget go forward in time there is in too many changes in the39 scenario because era joins in 2038. and then to go very heavily democratic. what happens with other racial
groups and what we have seen in the last couple of years the republican party's or certain portions with these new growing populations with a path forward so here is what happens in 2016 to improve the margins. and they would expand their win and pick up new hampshire and nevada while losing the popular vote that is the important i dynamic even while winning the electoral college it is the baseline of 2016.
and with attila tauro strategy and to increase the margins through 2028. and then as the demographic changege to increase support that we saw. we did 37 in total but i don't want to put everybody into a light, so now we will walk through the otherr column. >> we have a few more simulations for you. and then to feature what is
victory so that is extraordinary. and so that is the mere image of what we discussed. and that is the ten-point margin swing. so what happens with 2020 the democrats do way better wisconsin pennsylvania michigan they had arizona 334 votes electrical -- victory and then they take the popular vote and on the electoral vote 391 electoral votes because
they add to the ones they took and then georgia eventually down the line they actually take texas that is a massive hole for the democrats sometimes groups changes their voting behavior so for example what the republicans did a lot betterd than minorities because they have a special outreach efforts are made a real appeal? what if the reaction to that it is exactly the other direction? what if they reverted to their voting patterns?
what we find is this would not be a good trade-off not only lose the popular vote in 2016 but the electoral vote as well. to take back michigan pennsylvaniaia wisconsin iowa because of the new minority shift. and with that victory for the democrats they wouldn't be happy with that but then obviously the democrats continue across the board and then they look at carolina and even ohio. and that just underscores how they have benefited and how difficult it would be for them
if that shift went away. finally what we will look at is what we saw in 2016 how the white college voters became more democratic but what a fat continues into the future? if there was a five-point margin shift among the white college. but if you do that they actually benefit from the trade-off so under that trade-off republicans would slightly amplify that victory.
and by the we get to 2036 republicans under our analysis would still take out loss in 2024 but then they start losing on both ends for the time to get to 2036 because new hampshire michigan north carolina and your job it is an overwhelming victory for the democrats. and also with the size of the different groups so with those different simulations.
now we will do the discussion. >> so as a general question one of the things we did in this report and just to go after those scenarios of the interesting dynamics. so that general reaction to the report? and how is that scenario? so what you touched on is that tremendous disparity between electro -- electoral college
vote and popular vote 616 republicans when electoral college but only one today with the popular vote to see one party continue to win one area but loses the other has tremendous consequences going forward simulation was through the ideological group so basically with all of those working-class voters he will never get them back to maximize like barack obama did if we do that we don't need to
exclude that also with the rnc recommended we have to do better remember? [laughter] b but then there is what i would call the trump cowbell scenario forget about everything the rnc said about reaching out to the traditional establishment and then the joe biden scenario getting those white working-class voters back everybody points to a scenario where it works and that will be fascinating with 2020 at
these guys told me there is a possibility about working versus the debate over which is the best. >> and reactions to the scenarios? >> first the report is interesting to read there is a lot of insight and a lot to consider but what happens if that occurs you have a lot of scenarios one party wins electoral college the other wins the popular vote i cannot imagine what would happen several elections in a row this happens. look at california after 2016. but what happens with the latino vote up to everybody
else? >> we would love to see that happen but there is a lot of effort to get out over the years and with voter participation to make as you say on the report they are distributed in a way that is not advantageous i am not sure how likely thatik scenario is what happens with that latino vote but not necessarily across all education groups? that is unlikely when will
georgia turn blue? and my final comment is there are two things you have to worry about immigration for both groups is happening with asian american and in terms of growth the hispanic population is very diverse. it's not the same annette scenario seven and a half point is about where bush was so it is possible but there are some changes within the hispanic population with those voter turn off -- turnout rates and depending on the
groups or new york and there are differentt scenarios. >> you could have a whole set s of reports. >> first of all thank you so much of how we approach the landscape. spending a lot of my youth and georgia both the near-term way do think one of those immediatewh questions not just 2020 and beyond for this year because timing is everything with the governor's races that control i the house this is implications over the next
>> to have a chance to to see it close what is going on. and white college voters decide so to that extent is a significant portion so then that starts to shift considerably. so how much of the boat does that make up in any given election? obviously that was important with that 20-point gap and resolve the approval and that is predictive but that second
part is how do you get to that type of victory? because that is just to the voters are. and even some of those rural populations. and actually shifted everyone offt those counties so that is unique to the alabama meeting on applicable set of circumstances there hasn't been a lot of other places the last election someone in the have to pay close attention to
is to what extent are college educated whites represented versus people of color? did you think we should acknowledge that barack obama is a unique historical figure to get that turnout back to the same level it does require some real imagination we actually have the opportunity id. that phenomenon that is where i am interested in one of the points that you brought a recently there is a huge
shift all along millennial women over the last five years there is a huge shift all along millennial women over the last five years within the last four years what is driving that right now so with the shift of college educated voters there was a sense that i don't like his behavior hillary clinton i can't. and as a businessman is still college educated people to feelel that way but i like what he's doing policy wise.
so with that sense of engagement with that intensity the idea to have a woman as president was exciting but with the election of donald trump was to their reaction to that. what we see with american politics that there is a transformative figure that everybody loves and they are gauge how much they hate the other person that could drive you through a midterm election
may be a presidential election but not enough to the party so what do democrats do keep them engaged?nd what is that coalition of the nonwhite voters then say here is that how -- the path forward so we have talked about the white non-college voters we have season 2008 is a decline of identification it has been pretty dramatic over the last ten years so how much of that is permanent that the
democratic party could still win back. >> i might add to that to make that question even more in-your-face. look at the data. it is pretty clear i want to keep it where it is but turn up the volume. is there support do they dos something different? >> cap president obama. if they selected and african-american elected barack hussein obey the lever
>> so with thosee incarceration levels to look at those educators that suggest it could be considerably worse. and we know firsthand about the opioid addiction. i regret i cannot recall those offers within to do that analysis of the creation of jobs 95% of all job creation so that trendline is the type of thing that drives wedges
and differences between the different constituencies so there is good news for democrats there is the incredible path that is engaging directly and it is measurable in a consistent way so that medicaid expansion and what that means to the community that is ant variable where you put yourself in a political context and then to see virginia reverse course because we had so many republican that previously said no i'm not voting for that.
>> so much is driven by policy andn culture and has been a culture fight for so long not really the specific policy but how you identify with the messenger and then it depends who the messenger will be and the republican party going forward to have the ability to have significant change in value works the political democracy that we make too many assumptions to continue to identify as a hispanic going forward can you office through those changes and why we may be wrong? make that is a great question also a community call but he
knows i tried to describe this group and it isn't necessarily clear but there are two big trends the way they see themselves and their ideas -- their identity but first with immigration as share of the population 35% overall with overall with adults it is perhaps reserving changes that reflect the population and america just doesn't havee the people back from the 80 biggest point biggest point
they are at a rate of 25% how does w that compare to whites and blacks? but this has been constant '80s moving forward we will see more but looking at what happened with hispanic ancestryry and to say i don't know my ancestry i don't speak spanish i grew up american so to see that hispanic population continue to grow however you will see these numbers slow down and maybe this'll be different 20 years from now.
>> and to dominate and that may help turn them out even further. and that will be good. but we saw how important culture w20 was. and for other minority groups asno well. and to talk with the interest of working-class white and those who seem to persist they keep popping up and so forth it is important to look ahead as a minority population not only 1829 or so forth to fight
what is happening with that hispanic population and moving away from that hispanic identity that will not happen very quickly so those issues will be important. >> so the one thing that occurs to me because if you look to wherebe the move trump in these communities where they live with the cluster of economic problems there is a whole set of problems there that could be addressed by policy f that is politically necessary.
so things that are placed very specifically to policy maybe one thing we will see with 2022 have those distinctive policies in distinctive ways. >> ima wisconsin native that senator johnson got 3% of the vote compared to the 24000 so perhaps in the demographic studies you could have looked at johnson's vote versus trump going forward that my larger question is my take away that massive suppression multilevel
works keep down the african-american vote with strong identification law with anti- democratic party stuff into work the elderly on the social issues and with those three levels for more suppression in the state of wisconsin and will stay republican to make just to underscore what you are saying so with our analysis had a 19-point drop from 2016 which is massive. whatever the reasons it is pretty amazing with those laws that were passed in the difficulties of the senate.
it wasn't as effective or seem to be as other states but it is clearly part of that environment and that is a fair fight compared to the thumbs-up scale but we take a look at the african-american vote in ohio to ask different cohorts into understand what the voter participation levels it even dropped here in ohio why do you think that is? and across each of those that
with the white noncollege educated. treated as a single group but is there much of the difference so if you peel down the d noncollege women as concerned about adultery or sexual assault or the whole wrath of issues where republicans start using one -- losing with college educated women. >> if you look at the gender and the other data from 2016 just there is a huge difference with noncollege that since the election they
are definitely moving away from trombetta faster rate so that is the potential significance but what it doesan show looking at young noncollege whites they are much less hostile so it does appear that not one -- that generation might be much more accessible than their counterparts. there are very important differences and there is some potential for democrats. . . . . .
>> over here we touched on a question and stolthequestion ani was wondering what role will these walls play as far as your demographics are concerned because the walls are changed every year and is a you say african-american turnout was low however a lot of them were purged from the voting rolls. they showed up but were turned away. how will the state law affect your demographics in the future as far as access to voting? >> ohio is one of our flagship state so we have a lot of analysis. we looked at the change in population from 12 to 16 and then the number of by a race. we see a disproportionate level in terms of removing folks from the polls based on race it's not
shocking i know there are several folks investigating this matter i'm not sure where it stands before the court i think it is going before the high court. what you're seeing is even inside of that context there is still the depression of the voter participation so you have a perch within the folks that are left are still not participating at the same level as before. some of this is a direct effect of the various laws passed to suppress voter turnout. i think we should take a broad view of what is suppressing voter turnout. i think gerrymandering is an enormous factor this if you don't have to compete for a particular geography than who's engaging in who's mobilizing folks to turnout at last i think alabama isn't known for its most progressive voting framework into their use saw a heightened level of participation so the
objective is clear the actual effect to be more nuanced and it's coming from a broad set of efforts. >> on the message mattering and people feeling like they have something at stake. stake. we've heard this over and over again with focus groups to solve the biggest drop between 2012 and 2016. it wasn't as much about that so i think that if you are thinking ahead of the most important thing you need to do to engage people of color in the process it's not what our things for ous
preventing you from voting. you look at a state like california for the example that has done more than almost any other states to get the process. it's like a laboratory what can we do to get people more involved and how can we do gerrymandering in a fairway with automatic registration, top two primary processes that encourages people to come into those it doesn't matter the party you can come and vote in the primary. yet we solve this in 2014 the last time i did all this was 2014 where they had the lowest turnout in modern history. when you talk to them why didn't you turnout it doesn't matter if it didn't get difference i think that should be a concern because what they are saying is i going to vote, nothing changes, the system is still dysfunctional, my neighborhood isn't any better or they say my neighborhood is better so i'm going to vote in my city council and school board because that affects me that
these people in sacramento or washington, they are not getting anything done so until they do, you've got to come and giv and , don't expect me to come to view and unfelt politicians get that and i think donald trump did get that with a certain community of voters and they turned out at a rate of the expected because he spoke directly to them, you are right nobody did ask you. i'm going to ask you to tell you what i'm going to do. so any candidate running if the first question is how do i get you to think i'm good to make your life better rather than how am i going to turn date could change the law, then it is your kind of missing something. >> to keep on schedule, this has to be the last question. [applause] >> i would like to invite the
they are part of an advisory board. they've been helpful along the way but there's other members of the advisory so we have a great demographers and they keep us honest and give us advice over the years but they've written papers from the perspective of the republican and democratic party. what should they take away from all of these scenarios. the papers are available for you to read and i will give you a couple of options. we have a printed copy these are the two papers. the report underlined the project and both can be found
online through to me at the bipartisan policy center, american progress.org and the other we heard of in the first panel. again, i want to give one award to sean. he was supposed to be a guest last year but he was coming in to give his commentary and had the worst of planes, trains and automobiles as you might imagine and couldn't make it last year. this year he was paired to come the night before and everything was fine but of course things were canceled again. rainstorms prevented his drive but he is here with us and we are grateful.
[applause] what we are going to do is have a conversation with you. we are not going to ask them to recount their papers. you should read them. >> maybe just telescope your basic argument but also may be related to what sean wrote. where do you agree with him and where don't you and where do you come out on that same, it's differ a little bit? >> i was lucky enough to write a paper from the democratic perspective it's a much more rosy scenario than it is on the republican side in a might have been more fun to write my paper bench on writing his paper. but one of the things that's raised for me particularly horrific strategists is that it hits home the challenge for the
narrative is for democrats because in the scenario laid out and some others i generated myself, there are some in my papers you can easily win in the future solely on the votes of white college educated especially women and not ever talk to the white working class. in other words, there are scenarios you can replicate the performance of the white working-class voters which is historically bad and you can keep the content and look at the shifts so tactically that was philosophically for the democratic party, not such a fine strategy in a sort of mirror the identity politics that can be framed in constructive ways so why i think
the most realistic present in the underlining report and fix the question what the swift populism because most would agree it isn't acceptable to say we don't care about the voters we just want to win the elections. i won't go through everything they talked about holding a constant and been looking at the demographic changes, a democrat can win in 2020. it's very tenuous especially if you allocate the third-party vote where it is a one electoral votes when that if you keep the vote the same democrats can win purely on the strength of the new minority voters and college
educated voters but it's very close, so you have states like pennsylvania and others where the .5 margin and that's when they matter in the close races the quality of the candidates, the quality of the campaign, what is happening by the campaign from the inside and the outside but i think that if we look at what has happened, that is unrealistic and you can look at virginia i think in particular is a good example but also pennsylvania e. team. in those cases they are slightly different about what we saw this better turnout from democratic leaning groups so the suburban part of virginia and pittsburgh but also a margin shifts as an example hillary clinton won about 15% of college educated women and 58% of college-educated women in 2017. that is a significant shift in margin. when you look at the dynamic and the fact that turnout actually people have focused on african-american turnout and the
state drop but actually the turnout went up among other minority voters and the went up with other minority voters and so they were trending more democratically even as the african-americans margin dropp dropped. the scenario that i developed if let's say that the turnout is in between 2012 and 2016 i think matt pointed out that obama was a historical figure that generated enthusiasm that isn't easily reprehensible but it's halfway between 12 and 16 in terms of margin and then i had a slightly smaller increase trending in that direction and of thithis project was unable ty
college-educated women that will drive the shift but i didn't touch the turnout because not only do the turnout go up but not as much as the white noncollege they have higher turnout. in that scenario democrats win by nine points and so they easily win the electoral college and all the states in north carolina so that strikes me if you think about what has been happening since trump was elected and you look at the virginia election is entirely realistic to me that is without anybody doing anything because so much of what is happening on the ground and as someone that works on campaigns it is organic it's not that they are specifically doing anything to generate this enthusiasm, people are just desperate to do something. the implication is for democrats, they can win and that is problematic from a moral
perspective. sean wrote an interesting paper that i mostly agree with in the sense that real events happen. 9/11 happened, world war ii happened and things shift and realign and we can project out from these numbers but nothing is sort of set in stone and nothing is inevitable that could change the dynamics in the short and long term so he does a good job talking about all these things in the past that ended up being quite changeable. >> don' >> don't lead off with your paper is going to be memorable to everyone. you look at it as if you were an analyst for the project in 1925 and look at some trends republicans have been doing very well and trends that would never change that they would always win the battle can african-americans woulbattle ans
both republicans and working-class voters were trending and of course those things will change dramatically within just a few short years. could you look at some of the factors? in the long term these demographic projections what it might not hold as we go for a number of years but also, what are the scenarios that you see in the report seems to be the most likely, what might change in what seems to be most unlikely? >> it's not just 1925 commits any number if i told you that republicans were about to win seven of ten with a landslide if i have told you that in the 2009 the republicans ar were going to nominate somebody that what his campaign off saying that they were a bunch of rapists except for the few that fo were good
people and when he would win i'm a skeptic and i would have said no way that isn't not going to happen. these things have a way of not finding out once you get a few cycles down the road so i don't disagree with the way the data was presented. it's important to distinguish between the democratic majority in some of the stronger versions that make it seem like this is a done deal. some of the issues that are worth raising, some of this was covered in the last panel of what happens if it increasingly shifts to a nativeborn population as you get more intermarriage and as you get more conversions to protestantism which does happen
a few generations in. do they take sall take sally any that it is today or doesn't turn out like being italian-american sort of days for me for my grandparents house if, like that was their identity and for my mother that is sort of her identity and for me that's the site of the family that i'm the closest to, but i don't particularly identify. my kids have no clue that they are one eighth battalion and we forget that in like 1985, part of why justice scalia gets appointed is because the italian boat is incredibly important to the swing state of new york so these things can shift in very short order. we talked a lot about the african-american vote and what i think is a difficulty all things equal and i think with president trump all things are not equal to all things being equal getting that to return to the 2008, 2012 level of turnout isn't just an histori the histoe
of barack obama's candidacy in that he was the first african-american president because i think quite frankly self-insured for the the trip io the position he was, but he was able to do that by keeping the white working class largely on board it was tremendous but we wouldn't have seen from the other politicians we've seen along the way. that was the concern that jesse jackson has a different presidential run than barack obama then there's the question of the white working class which is what happens if those trend lines continue. there's already a buzz voters out there somewhere along 40% of the electorate. but supplements sooner or later you start to run into college students who yet do not have college degrees and are not susceptible to the message and start running two baristas so
there is a ceiling for the republicans dare we just don't know what it is and i think that the republican strategist and 1970 would feel comfortable at 30% because that is how it had been for 24 years and then saw it fall down to 10%. i'm not convinced we haven't seen the worst. >> you have a lot of good things to pick from in the demographic you laid out a number of scenarios from do very little and you still win or do a little and even by a lot. looking out past the current climate ten or 12 years in the future, what is the party going to be moving and maximizing?
what is the one you would pick k out and say i think the democratic party is good to be getting much better here and taking advantage of the trends here and then on the second question i know you've spoken about this before you saw some weaknesses around the edge of the coalition maybe it is african-american men or other parts of the coalition where would you say they might have more weakness might think? >> i do think and this isn't just based on the data that a potential weakness is from my perspective it isn't necessarily a moral weakness but a potential weakness of the democratic party so i' on the one hand, you are seeing gender gap particularly driven by white college educated women and younger women with overlapping but not a complete overlap and certainly they face
tremendous support. they are almost becoming a democratic peace group much more likely to vote than other people than you have a historic number of women running without out they will face a significant shift in the gender makeup of the house. even if nancy pelosi isn't the leader you will have to see significant women in leadership. they didn't want to vote for hillary clinton i heard some folks say awful things about her and i'm going to hold my nose because she's married to bill clinton but at least she's been in the white house before not even mentioning secretary of state but that she was the first lady and i ain't i did some post
election research and only 50% voted for clinton not for chumps that a third party so i think one potential weakness would be a backlash which we are seeing already when you think about the women's march and a backlash democrats from male voters. women in the majority elected and democratic party that i think you could see something like that happening. >> what we ask that something that you mentioned that is near and dear to my heart which is that emerging democratic thesis. i do feel speaking as someone that is pretty close to the genesis of that thesis that it's a widely misunderstood and oversimplified to the point of just being h. rove without a real analysis maybe you can
speak about the weak and strong democratic majority thesis because again speaking as someone close to the emerging democratic party it felt like you were onto something. >> those of you in the audience i don't know them in sync patrick's day in the majority just a few years ago as well as some later work but that's an important book. my book if i may plug the lost majority was conceived as a response to the emerging democratic majority and then i had made the mistake of sitting down and actually reading the book like this book is nothing like what i see in the new republic or the new yorker or the favorite progressive publication. it's a very nuanced work that
emphasizes heavily the importance of careful governance tending to the various coalitions at the time. it relies heavily on the white working class vote which things have changed and i would agree with support to the coalition that it was at the time. about a book is a very careful book about spelling out that this is not inevitably what will happen, some of the states will come around and it was dead right about trends in virginia and colorado and nevada at a time but no one took that seriously. it got a lot of things very much right so i think it's important when talking about the demographics at his best in the arguments or whatever because the emerging democratic majority was in the demographics just the argument. real quickly on what was said
and i jus,and i just kind of wao follow up. i've always taken the view political coalitions are like water balloons. you step down on one side and the other side pops up and i think that is a problem for the democrats going forward. you can try to tend to the various portions of the coalition but inevitably you have a message that dominates and i think we kind of sold out in 2009 and 2010 where we are trying to keep this coalition at the time of wealthy white liberals, other middle-class suburban, white working class voters, minority groups together causing some tensions and fractures. i agree you can win in a particular way but keeping that group together when they have some competing interests without the threat of donald trump front and center i think is difficult. ..
van that certainly relies on the white working-class but the scot walker winds are will look different from the donald trump wins. what is your thinking about white working-class and what should we be thinking about also labor and the importance of labor and the union diversification but also what is the future? >> i think one of the things that we have danced around talking about the popular vote
in the electoral college and the senate and with the nonwhite vote you did get a lot of concentration states. the white working class tends to be spread across the upper midwest and become the swings set--some swing state that i think the real alarm bell for the republicans there is the water they are taking on. if you want to know what really made wisconsin a republican state yeah the swings are part of it. kramer has a very good book written about that documenting the shift in attitudes before trump's election but it's crucial. salve bright red ring around milwaukee and the senate republican base. if that turns purple republicans are up the creek to the same thing with the county i live in ohio columbus delaware voted
republican in every election since the 1960s but it was still a trump county. it moved five or six points toward donald trump and it was it historic showing for republicans. they are a real alarm bells going off and in addition to some of the movement toward republicans that counterbalance in 2015 but down the road may not. >> i don't think you can separate what happened to hillary clinton from the movement in those states and i think there's important research that shows the elimination of collective bargaining in wisconsin for example a padded big impact in people voting democrat read at ranges from what happens when people are in unions and not being diminished over time but also the resources the indians have brought so you
also saw the same assault. the most extreme example certainly in ohio you had real attacks and bargaining collectively. i cannot remember the name of airport but it specified what the impact of these sorts of power pieces have announced the strength of unions in their ability to get out votes for democrats. they do think one other thing and that's not a problem that's going to go away. even if democrats have to take over state governments and that's going to be tough in some places we anticipate the culture around union organizing is not going to happen overnight. certainly the labor movement is committed to doing that. on the other hand in addition to what sean said about suburban voters i think there are consequences to austerity but if you look at the difference between minnesota and wisconsin and how it did.
minnesota have the resources that wisconsin didn't have around medical fields of academia. if you look at the recoveries that happening in minnesota as opposed to wisconsin he didn't make cuts he borrowed there were massive cuts in wisconsin. if you look in kansas where you are now seeing actual democrats becoming stronger and moderate republicans on the increase the austerity reaction has really hollowed out schools and infrastructure in places like ohio and wisconsin that some of it's been restored in pennsylvania but it takes a while to rebuild that last area. it's kind of a cautionary tale for republicans but i think we have seen a backlash in the states as well. >> let's sort of stipulate sort of the week version of the emerging democratic majority and let's also stipulate an
environment that is moved in the way it has since 2015 giving the democrats better chances. given that with the respective parties what's the worst thing that the parties respect respect--respectively could do to deal with the situation? what is the catastrophic mistake it could make in dealing with this? >> that's a good question. [laughter] >> and i talk about republicans? [laughter] we are to talk about the hearing someone mentioned this on the earlier panel and it's in my paper but winning over time with the electoral college and not the popular vote i think that is profoundly problematic and there are two ways. one can be problematic for republicans and undermining their legitimacy as a party.
you keep governing as if you have one free of not run bradley strikes me as making the party weaker and less effective. democracy is demobilizing. if you think your vote doesn't matter then why go out and vote? you hear a lot especially among young millennials that if hillary clinton won the election and donald trump is the president our democracy doesn't work anyway. that's a danger for the republican party. >> while we saw in 2005 and 2009 and 217 which is taking the single election results and the mandates. it's not necessarily how most voters vote. most voters will look at their pocketbook and look at the historic nature of the candidacy
there's a great quote about the elect are at and doesn't work yes or no i tried to interpret that is a prime example. regardless of what happens in 2019 and 2021 i think over playing the hand is like real like being careful about that. it's tough because your base is excited. they think they won because it's the end of history. they got to toe that line between keeping your base happy and the reality that your base is almost never majority of the electorate. >> we have strong partisanship and the way they govern in a compromising way of governing and with the rise of nonparty funding that is continuing that goes up every single year i
don't see a party shift anytime soon. even if you want is a party to govern in a way where you are compromising in the moderate it's impossible to do. >> we see the popular vote going one way or the other. i figured i would put mine on the electoral college after people vote. we do have a scenario that it might be good for the book. but my question is generally the democratic story is good for democrats with the rise of latino vote and the decline in the white working-class vote but let's focus on millennials are younger voters. it's a little bit of a political transgression which you both have expertise on but if you look at millennial voters they are strongly democratic. partly that's because they are more diverse but even the white
vote is strongly democratic. one would assume unless the tenant 12-year-old since they are very different that march is for the elect are at and looks good for the democrats. people believe you're voting behavior is formed at an early age. you stick to the party that you had when you came of the age to vote and it doesn't change very much but there's a little evidence of maybe a change as you acquire family or grow. what is your thought on that? are we likely to see this being a democratic group going forward or may not that be the case? >> when i started writing on this a decade ago my line was that's a decade or two down the line for republicans and we won't have to worry about this. now it's a front and center problem for republicans.
their voters are old and many of them will be around and there will be more and more of these younger more liberal voters. i do think it's an organ to keep in mind that the government carries 18 to 24-year-old demographics and today those are boomers who are voting overwhelmingly for the right of the country as a whole. i'm not saying that something republicans can't sustain on. events really do impact it to the other thing is the parties will change. the debate over marriage equality is over. there are still battles around the edges but the core debate is not going anywhere. sooner or later the republican party will change. the country as a whole is 75% in favor of marriage equality then we will have a majority of the
republican party in favor of it. i don't think that will happen in 2020 but by 2030 that's going to be how things go. it's just hard to speculate. >> i would say i'm a little less optimistic. obama lost when he lost white millennials in 2012. what i saw in the millennial voters is a real part of the democratic party so while the liberal progressives especially on race and orientation and gender in that sort of thing and in fact people of color and vulnerable communities. you don't see that with older white voters. white millennial art--but it's a very passionate democratic party
and if you look for example at older african-americans have very profound attachment to party in history you don't see that with younger african-americans. younger african-american men in particular did not vote for trump but they didn't vote or they voted heavily third-party. and younger millennial hispanic men as well. while i think the ideology certainly those who have come of age and trump are even more liberal but i don't think the party has any stake. part of what the democratic party has done this to make sure in midterms are not talking about security and medicare and you're not talking to the electorate. i don't think democrats have talked to one else and i don't think democrats often default in talking about college
affordability in loans which is important but we know the majority of people are going to go to college. what do you say to millennial noncollege voters and i don't think democrats have figured that out. >> with that the issue of immigration? if you look at the data from 2015 it's pretty clear trump has a profile of a certain amount of bias. the issue that was most prominent was anti-immigration and those attitudes were the most predictive. when he goes out and does his rallies it comes up but it's like an incredible contentious issue within the republican party. do we feel that changing anytime soon in some of the dynamics we have talked about in our scenarios or does this continue to be the party is at complete loggerheads about this that i won't have a significant effect?
>> i think the talents to democrats of immigration is that it's a much more important issue for republicans. if you ask people what their most important issue is immigration falls down to four or five for democrats. have this imbalance around communication and activity around immigration etc. and republicans if you think about social media and information propaganda immigration is a huge piece that the right and the far right and the russian thoughts and bulgarian trolls are pushing from the media. the question to democrats how do you talk about immigration when your side doesn't care about much as republicans do and daca and comprehensive immigration reform will continue to be of that part of what the party talks about. it is in some ways a benefit to republicans or the democrats but
the one thing i would say is going back to millennial fear the divisiveness and hispanics in particular with regards to immigration, women don't like it. maybe it's not that they are out there wanting to march for immigration reform but they are marching against hate and prejudice and they really really don't like it. it's less about specific policies and more about what is this mean for who we are sick country and what were you represent and morals? >> i talk a little bit about the fight over her that we had in her our politics in the 1980s and i looked at europe and if you didn't like the religious right wait until you meet the secular right.
it gets to stuff that i think even if you are someone who is not particularly progressive but more racially progressive gets an attitude that's hard to appreciate at a gut level. it has a lot of resonance for people. the republican party overlooked their peril and it's part of what has come down in the 2016 primary and i think if i had to point to an area potential democratic overreach that would be the top of my list. i don't know how widespread that attitude is but a lot of my younger progressive friends is an issue for them i think you would be crazy for the next deck paid to go with immigration enforcement. i doubt the democratic party leadership would go along with that. there's a lot of energy in that direction. again it's hard for me because
of something that just doesn't register in a visceral way the waves register with other people but it's real. look around the world. it's not just us. >> there was a potential showdown over daca and speak about the democratic party. they didn't go far enough. they should have shut down the government for two weeks to get daca and the republicans would have caved. that's really contentious and a point going forward. >> but to follow up on rudy's question immigration the republican party has been more skeptical and the other party in the other direction and one of the key dividing points on the white working class but the other issue of donald trump's trade and that is come to the forefront today.
when you think about the issue trade within the coalition perhaps in the midwest. as a greater divide between the different types of republicans may be on the democratic side. is the issue trade something that's going to have a potential shakeup or do they go together? sully i think trade and immigration are a lot of ways different sides of the same coin. you are seeing a shift. i'm a lot more interested in seeing how it plays out with the democrats because i think trying to reinvigorate labor and to the labor base causes some real tension on the trade issue. >> i think with trade and even the polling with tpp people don't know a lot about trade.
they don't know how works and i don't know what our policies are for the most part so it's interesting to watch over the last three years is how it becomes partisan. i just asked a question about a chinese terra in a poll i did last week in 75% of democrats think it's bad end 25% of republicans thinks it's good. there's nothing interesting to say about this. i don't know what to make of that but to say as a subset of voters i don't think they care that much and they see it through the lens of whatever policy is on at that time. i don't think it's a voting issue when it comes to these economic policies. >> we will take--turn to the audience. over here and then i'll come to you.
>> thanks. the question for each of our paper writers. i'm sorry. sean made to structural points up front one having to do with the possibility for which he knows the 21st century and the other is whether the ceiling for white working-class voters has reached yet and i'd be interested in your response to that deshaun first of all i have to congratulate you on the working on the voting studies panel. congratulations. in the previous panel amy walter raised a very adjusting question whether talking about people the
working-class vote. to what extent are we talking about cultural and to what extent are we talking about actual policies and the consequences of those policies? suppose we get into 2020 and working-class wages have risen smartly and most of the coalmines have not reopened and steel is not doing so great despite the tariffs and life for people is not perceptibly better >> i do think we can see if you look at the differences among latinos for native born english speaking latinos they are more conservative than foreign-born and spanish speaking latinos. if the republicans had taken the republican report seriously in 2012 actually doing outreach i think there would have been a real shock at making some gains
with latino voters. it's a problem in the next 10 or 15 years is what is happen around immigration because it's such a source of strength for republicans. it makes it much harder for that dynamic to change. by the way it's not even so much about the immigration policies. there are plenty of latinos who say i came here legally and i came the right way. it's about if you look at what's happening on the secular right to demonization and just how gross the conversation is. i think by the way that's asian-american voters who have shifted heavily democratic in the last 10 years. but most recently in 2012 to 2015 so that demagoguery around race is really problematic for this notion of assimilation and translation. i think we see some different dynamics.
it went the other direction on that. i don't know if republicans have reached their ceiling. seems hard to imagine democrats doing much worse than hillary clinton did and already working with big pockets of working-class voters people running for governor and other things. some of that may be driven by white working-class women. we are seeing some improvement at the margins that but hillary clinton lost at the margins. i can imagine republicans doing even better and we are not seeing that now but i don't really know. >> i take the view on a macro level referenda on the parties in power, i think at the micro level the message does matter. i think democrats were able to
do well because they had conor lamb and he was running a very focused message but i don't know that nationally the democratic presidential nominee is going to run. that said if we are in a recession or there is a mini-recession and some of the industrial areas i can't imagine trump with a repeat performance. that set in 2015 i couldn't have imagined that trump would when. >> i would add one thing about latinos. mark lopez said something very interesting to me. i think him might have cited in your paper the decline in the hispanic population and the implication of that is if latinos are less likely to identify with that ethnicity
that they will become more politically conservative. you said that the data didn't see a lot of controlling risk factors. among these people who lost the latino identification their attitudes would be similar. i just think that's the issue in mark said they were going to publish something--. >> i'm curious what you all think about the move of college white voters and how much of that is a reaction to trump will continue? trump's no longer the head of the party and how much of it is what the democrats are doing? how the democrats continue to hold onto it? >> 's more than that. the trend of college educated specialist postgrad education
traub has accelerated it. but it predates it and white college women also predates trump. trump has accelerated the dynamics that were already in place. >> if you look at the college degree vote and you control for national vote share you get a line. you don't see lines like this in elections but that's what we get with that respect it's a continuation of trends. it's a trend both suburbanites were the republicans base in 60s, 70s and 80s when bill clinton started to break them away. i think they are the swing vote right now.
they are kind of the name of the game for the party. >> i think that the republicans have a challenge to the extent that republicans are being anti-science and anti-women's rights and women's rights in the work place in particular. i just think it's very difficult not necessarily with the entire block but important segments of it. as long as that's part of the republican base i don't see how you do it. >> from my perspective a cultural issues that the republicans are on did not resonate at all. i think if you take it bernie sanders progressive approach that's going to be tough and trying to balance those few impulses from both parties. >> the bernie sanders campaign
in the primaries had not been awaited. >> the thing i would add about white college grads is among my own comrades john guidice saying an emerging lid was taking place that was part of an emerging republican advantage. it's an emerging republican advantage but it's among college voters. the ford degree only population is a trend similar from my lower baseline. it appears a four-year degree in up is all in the same direction. >> over to the back here into the right. >> there has not been much discussion about the impact of foreign-policy and various electorates that at various times the democratic party as
well as the republican party have been motivated primarily by foreign-policy issues. democrats, there has been a dominant wind in the democratic party that has been anti-interventionism i suppose you could say there's not much that rand paul and bernie sanders agree on except get out of asia, focus on domestic spending and domestic programs. i wonder if anyone would he willing to talk about the role of foreign-policy come interventionism, non- interventionism, isolation-- isolationism global whatever term you want to use. it certainly there but we don't hear much about it. >> i think americans like winning more so when the war is being won they will rally to the party of power. when a war is going poorly they will react to that party. otherwise they don't care much
about foreign policy. that's sort of my take on post-war foreign-policy dynamic tree they just don't know much about it. >> completely agree. >> far in the back here, moving around the room. >> my question comes from something that an iq raised. my question comes from something that anna raised in it was raised by the first panel as well in terms of the disconnect in 2016 between the electoral college and the popular vote and then perhaps that continuing through the next couple of elections. it's clearly bad for democracy but i wonder if it's more problematic for the democratic
party or the democratic leaning vote in terms of there not been an incentive to vote because their vote is not worth as much as it should he where is the republican leaning votes, their vote is actually counted more than it should. it might not be a discouragement to voting. >> i think i mentioned that. it's demobilizing people don't think their vote matters. democrats are losing the electoral college might hear that now. >> i'm just going to add the scenarios we come up with are generally right and in the right direction they'll show it for her publica winds in the upper
college--the speculation was perhaps it could go the other way. perhaps al gore would win the electoral college and i guess one other bit of wisdom was really hard to have a split that pro college. we have disproven that in some of these scenarios are going further and further apart. so i don't doubt that the demographic is playing towards states. there are surprising trends we are not paying attention to. there are some places where the vote that really matter. perhaps we are not seeing some of these things but i do think the data is showing that.
>> lets go here. >> one thing i thought of was the wall which is the most visceral anti-immigrant image the tis donald trump to a lot of places where people did not think that was possible. if it doesn't get told which i think is likely to happen with this congressional makeup or it does detract to get help and you ices arizona and texas were its really not popular what would be the effects of that? >> i am starting to see different hard-core people upset that trump is not living up to his promises but crazy people
like alex jones, i don't know. >> i think democrats have dodged the bullet would the trump administration. think he is has led with something like infrastructure instead of a muslim ban you'd have a different dynamic and i think it was brain-dead idiocy not to take the daca bill. that was something, what is that there's no way he's getting the ball. his supporters were right about it. if you overlook the daca thing we have our wall and the democratic base sees the wall as an important symbolic thing. >> we have time for one last question. cf. thanks for the second
question. i just want to make a point that there black people that actually live in the suburbs who are concerned about education and affordable education and accessibility to education, higher education. i'm one of them. i have a kid in college but in rural in inner cities their american dream has become a nightmare. what donald trump's been able to do is to reach out to those people in rural areas to give them hope. what are the democrats going to do to get those black voters hope? it no daca had a dream and that blacks had a dream two and became a nightmare in this administration. what you going to do to give them hope because they are lacking hope from leadership. >> you have a scenario where you thought it was pretty favorable the black voters would return tool barack obama but what would make a go that way in part it's
a reaction to trump but it's not an answer about what democratics are going to do. first of all there has to be a vision that includes people of color in all circumstances you are in. i also think criminal justice reform if you think about the new jim crow and what this system has done to the african-american committee and continues to do that is certainly a place and you are starting to see some places like philadelphia starting the conversation with wedge democrats getting more comfortable with that as a priority. in addition to an economy that works for everybody that's the most important place to make change in positive terms but also in people's lives. >> i do think that's an area where you start to see some of the tensions of the democratic coalition that you point out.
one of the most deafening political science papers ever written and i'm thinking in particular of the obama administration initiative trying to create low income housing in suburbs. they were able to track when they tore down cabrini green the wide area became more republican. there was a white reaction. i think some of those pictures become salient when you start getting into the and bolts of governing. >> first of all for this panel i'd like to thank anna and sean who have done a tremendous job. [applause] this is the fourth annual report. we are planning on being here