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tv   Campaign 2020 Interview with Dante Scala in Manchester NH  CSPAN  February 10, 2020 7:35pm-7:50pm EST

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judges holding a get out of vote rally ahead of tomorrow's primary. that is set to begin underway at 8:00 p.m. eastern live here on cspan2. a reminder you can follow all of the presidential candidates on the campaign trail by going to our website, 2020. ♪ ♪ >> the new hampshire primary is tuesday, watch results in candidate speeches. starting at 730 eastern live on c-span, or listen on the free c-span radio app. >> professor donte from the university of new hampshire, let begin by asking about the political demographics of the state. estate that is shifted and changed over the last 15 to 20 years, why? >> one big reason is the state
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has become increasingly suburban. about half of democratic primary voters will come from just two counties in new hampshire. and they both are along the border. that's refined the mix of urban, but suburban voters. they live near the massachusetts border and might commute down to massachusetts for their employment and moved up to new hampshire for cost-of-living reasons. lower taxes, lower lower housing costs especially. and then he looked to the rest of the state, and rural new hampshire is not like the rest of rural america. we think of role is red. in urban is blue. in new hampshire, rural is sometimes blue and especially in bernie sanders backyard. in the connecticut river valley and western new hampshire. from the southwest corner up into grafton county were dartmouth colleges. that is actually an area where democrats in a general election typically find their
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margin of victory for a state wide race. so role is more recreational based in new hampshire. people come up to vacation, a lot of people want to retire in new hampshire. they bring their politics with them. one thing that has changed that has brought political change, there used to be an image of the yankee republican. the old man in the plaid jacket he was a fiscal conservative. he has passed away, and he has been replaced by retirees who moved up from new jersey, or new york, they were democrats all their lives and they brought their politics with them and they are not going to change of their 60 or 65. so republicans have gradually been replaced with democrats in the north. >> and they have come here in part because of low taxes? >> writes he had two kinds of streams of migrants into new hampshire of the last 20 to 30 years. what would be working families, people in their 30s and 40s raising kids in new hampshire. and then retirees who are
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moving, perhaps to the more rural areas for the amenities that, with the lifestyle up there. so you have these different streams of migration. nowadays, it's interesting, 20 years ago when i moved here myself, the story was, well why is new hampshire turning from red to purple? and the culprits, they said with a massachusetts residents moving north and bringing their liberal democratic politics with them. but actually, nowadays you look at the new hampshire republican party, where is it based? it's right along the massachusetts border in the suburban towns, the outer ring of the boston metropolitan area. that area has become more republican. republicans are much more concentrated and ironically democrats are spread out a lot martha across the state. sumac i want to come back to that police beat to this weekend before the new hampshire primary, i am reminded that in 2008, senator
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barack obama had an 11-point lead over then senator hillary clinton. he lost by nearly a percentage point. so i ask you how volatile is the weekend before the primary right now shows people to judge rising in the polls? >> i would say look for surprises it's very volatile. look for surprise on tuesday night. you have a lot of voters -- make it's a multi- candidate field with many to choose from. voters have been unsettled caught a beveling, looking here, looking there, checking people out. all the sudden we get these results are iowa -- slow motion. but new hampshire's are absorbing it. pete booted judges the man of the hour going into the weekend, but we don't know at the end of the weekend how things will look. and things will move suddenly and for odd events that might occur. i remember hearing the monday before the 2008 primary that hillary clinton had been crying at an event. it didn't really occur to me
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that made much of a difference at that point. the people look back and say that was something that might have swayed voters. so there is an awful lot of change that could still occur. >> so let's go back to the demographics of the state. you mentioned senator bernie sanders. where is the buttigieg strength, the worn strength? the biden strength? >> i would think the buttigieg strength would come from the new hampshire suburbs. especially in hillsboro and rockingham county. you find a lot of affluent, well-educated democrats there who like pete buttigieg. and they like and how articulate he is, they like his plans for renewing american politics. buttigieg, more than anyone else, has seized the mantle of reform in this race. we see that as a long tradition going back to gary hart's candidate who succeeded in becoming a message of
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reform. so suburbs for buttigieg, biden, if he's going to have a comeback it will be because blue-collar voters in places like manchester, nashua, cities of rochester, somersworth, decide to stick with joe. they will lead the way for him. the bernie sanders, it will depend a lot on three particular areas. college towns -- they will be a big turnout from there. and also in the connecticut river valley, in his backyard. from grafton down to cheshire county. that will be key for him. elizabeth warren, i would look at the city of portsmouth, that small city on the seacoast. there are a lot of liberal voters there. if she is making a comeback and perhaps persuading voters, progressive voters, liberal voters to come over from bernie that is going to be a clique tea place for her. >> do you have a sense of turnout, what are you looking for and what would the
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ultimate results been the state? >> i expect it to be significantly higher for three reasons. one is we have a pool of undeclared voters who are free agents. they can pick either a democratic or republican ballot on primary day. and they are more likely to pick a democratic bal object ballad because republican is uncompetitive. second democrats are seen have been very energized to get this president out of office. i suspect that will carry over. and three, so much attention on the primary. so many candidates coming and going now for a good year. all of that builds up to this climax. i think voters will turn out -- it will be very interesting to see if we hit a record turnout exceeding 2008. of course in iowa we didn't see, we stopped turnout was pretty flat. if it is flat here in a primary situation, that will be a real note of concern for
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democrats. maybe they lack the enthusiasm to take on president trump. >> i don't want to be cynical but do you sense that some republicans could vote for candidate x because he or she thanks they would be the weakest opponent to donald trump in the november election? >> the best i can tell, there might be some isolated incidences of that among the undeclared pool. but as far as i can see there has not been a coordinated effort to do so to get republicans out to the polls to play around. if anyone has been working on getting republican voters, it's hawaii congresswoman kelsey gabbert who has had this bipartisan message of unity. i sought gabbard's on new year's day and she strikes some pretty republican talking points on things like the second amendment. so i think if anyone gets republicans out to the polls it will be her. >> when the returns come in tuesday night is there one area that you are going to say this is a bell winner? look at this district look at this part of the state.
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>> i am. have the state capital of concorde votes. concorde is typically very democratic pretty liberal place. that is a place where you expect either elizabeth warren or bernie sanders to do well. but especially warren, i think. if he buttigieg is doing wellin concorde, that suggests to me that he succeeded in becoming a crossover candidate. so the liberals and moderates will like him. that to me would be a signal that he will have a very good night. >> how would you describe what happened monday in iowa? would you called a fiasco? >> i would, because you have the first in the nation event. the fact that the results were not delivered promptly and accurately when everyone is waiting for a year anticipating this. it was a blackeye for iowa, and it is not the first one. eight years ago, i will republicans declared the wrong winner of the iowa caucuses.
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mitt romney instead of rick santorum. i understand iowa democrats need to count accurately, although there are problems with that as well. but i think they dropped the ball. >> so i asked that because four years from now does that in any way change the dynamics for iowa and new hampshire being first with the caucuses in iowa and the primary new hampshire? >> i think the nightmare scenario for new hampshire is if the democrats lose the election to donald trump, a party out of power typically goes back and looks at the nomination process and says how can we tinker with this to protas a better nominee in 2024? if democrats set up a commission to look at the nomination process and they open the box, it might not just be iowa who falls out. but i am sure there will be democrats who want to make greater changes and iowa and new hampshire have been joined at the hip for so long, a lot of democrats see it as a
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twofer. they might say we will get rid of i love that we will at new hampshire as well. >> cadet happen here with your secretary say? >> we have a secretary of state who is a fierce defender of the primary. we have a lot to schedule us first. the worry would be if the democratic party decided to try to penalize candidates who campaigned in new hampshire despite the fact that new hampshire, let's say refuses to follow the party's orders to move its primary. what did candidates do? can the party have leverage on the candidates in the form of penalties of some sort to prevent them from campaigning here? that's the thing, it's never been about the delegate it's about the candidates the momentum, and so forth. if the candidates weren't here, the media would not be here. and if the candidates and media are in here, the new hampshire could have an election, but it would not have the same effects.
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>> if our viewers and listeners want to follow on social media how to do so? >> you and follow me on twitter at granite prof. >> thank you for being with this - you're welcome. ♪ ♪ c-span's "washington journal" live everyday with news and policy issues that impact you. coming up tuesday morning we will talk about the new hampshire primary with political reporter trends and new hampshire cochair for the people to judge campaign. also joining us vice president of national nurses united will share her thoughts on the primary and the union's endorsement of senator bernie sanders. and the mayor of laconia new hampshire, from the primary and his endorsement of senator amy klobuchar. be sure to watch this "washington journal" seven eastern tuesday morning. join the discussion. ♪ ♪ our c-span campaign 2020 bus
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is traveling across new hampshire, asking voters what issues should presidential candidates address. >> and the issue that is most important to me in 2020 is taking care of our best friend and making sure we don't go to war and that we do something with our allies to secure our united states. >> everyone talks about inequality and social reform. the candidates talk about wall street and stand up for the wall street investors. >> racial justice whether it be police brutality, addressing. [inaudible] but then our government and also issues like appropriation and stuff like that. >> mostly concerned about social programs, the maintaining of social programs such as social security. everybody swears on the bible they are not going to touch it. but you know that is going to be the next thing they're going to try to dismantle.
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i would say that's because number one. >> and i am most interested in ensuring the kids in school, and adults have access. that there is no programs that are suffering that doesn't get funded the best they can. no one wants to take education out of the schools. keep children culturally aware. it is incredibly important to each one of us. >> from the road on c-span. >> colorado senator michael bennet has also been on the campaign trail in new hampshire. one of his recent stops included a barbershop in manchester. >> while abs are what's happening. >> thank you. >> thank you.


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