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tv   Washington Journal Kyle Kondik  CSPAN  August 10, 2020 2:47pm-3:00pm EDT

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one of the caller said earlier about multi general households, if you go home and are infected you areo likely to give it to a family member. if you are in a household with multigenerational family or multiple households in that family or smaller house where you can't really effectively quarantine you will infect your family and so that is what we are seeing. and we need to fix it. we need to make sure, by the way, we have access to testing and early on that was not equal and we need to make sure that we provide adequate care to all the people that get it on equal basis. >> host: we will end it with there, doctor benjamin, executive director of the american public health association, hp ha .org. we appreciate your time. >> guest: john, thank you for having meet. >> host: with 85 days to go before election day 2020 we are
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joined once again by energy editor of crystal ball at the university of virginia has sundered for politics. let's start this morning in the battle for control of the senate. three months out if you had to pick the hand to play right now, would you rather be in the position of democrats or position of rubble goods. >> i'd be rather be with the position of the democrats for joe biden is in a better position than with senate results are not correlated but they have more bearing on than they did a generation or two ago. back in 2016 that was the first election [inaudible] in which every state had a senate race ntalso voted for same party for president. that's not guaranteed to happen this time but it does show presidential connections to the senate but basically the democrats are probably going to lose alabama where doug jones
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won that special election in 2017. [inaudible] the good thing for democrats is i do believe it will look good in four senate races, arizona, colorado are outright favored for republican held seats and they are probably better than 5050 in north carolina and in maine were two other publican held seats. they took a think for democrats is that once you get beyond those four statese they have several other targets but none are as good of targets as those for so the senate plainfield may be it standing, maybe it's not but the court targets look pretty good for democrats and then obviously senate majority you want to have 52-53 so you have a governing majority with 50/50 with the vice president breaking ties. you have to have party unity.
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>> host: when the wave election is happening connect. >> guest: i don't know if there is a price definition of wave election but it will be a sort of, know it when you see it. the democrats for the 2008 was a wave election but 2018 maybe not because in a so-called wave election a party is doing well at all levels of the races being thsted and democrats did great in the house and did pretty well in governorships and they endeda up using it in the senate and now that was a function of the [inaudible] but they netted a lot of legislative seats but not as many as you may have expected as a way but i think it would look like 2008 withd a wave wih the democrats winning the house and the presidency and moving beyond those for republican
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targeted senate seats and then a minute ago and cutting into some more publican turf and that's where you look at senate targets like iowa, montana, georgia and there are two races in georgia, one is guaranteed to be a runoff in early january and then maybe even states like south carolina and alaska. we talk about the map expanding but i would argue the map has retracted over the last week in that there is an open seat in kansas and democrats are hoping chris cole locke, really hard-line conservative on voting rights and immigration lost in 2018 gubernatorial race in kansas and democrats wanted him to get through that for the republic in primaries but roger marshall who is a more established or publican got to that primaryug instead and so kansas went from being potentially very attractive democratic part it to a moreic friends of the democratic senate target and just to put kansas in
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perspective there are positive trends in parts of the state for democrats but the bottom line is if he's not elected, they not elected since 1932 [inaudible] it's a long republican lineage. >> host: center for politics .org / crystal ball is where you can go and that is where you can find this map. it is the current map that picks right now for which races are leaning which way and that is the united states senate map. the blue color there are states leaning thermostatic states in this cycle, those in red lien likely or safe republican and seats and then in the yellow category is a tossup seat is where we will focus a lot of our attention this morning with iowa, north carolina and maine. as you want to call in this morning to talk about the seats and races that you are
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interested in 2020 you can do so. phone lines split by party but republicans (202)748-8001, democrats (202)748-8000, independence (202)748-8002, kyle, as folks call in you started your comments by saint the presidential race and senate plainfield is linked to the cycle as it often is for a presidential year and we spent the first hour of the programming talking about who joe biden could pick as his vice presidential nominee. any thoughts on that pic and what it could mean down ballot? >> guest: it will be interesting to see particularly people like the black woman as a running nmate and some of the top contenders are black like kamala harris and susan rice and standout as those who have gotten buzz lately and karen bass and those members from california but there is research that would suggest potentially thatd if biden takes a black
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running mate and they never had a black running mate so we don't necessarily know what electoral impact that might havee but thee are suggestions that if there was a black woman on the ticket that person might help with black turnout and of course many of the most competitive states there are significance a black voting bloc so if, in fact, that person could spur additional black turnout that might be helpful for biden presidential race but ultimately biden not only needs to pick someone who is electorally helpful or hurtful to him but for the stretch of the campaign but he also needs to pick someone who co can govern with and who could end up being the front runner to the democratic presidential nomination as soon as four years from now is whether biden wins or doesn't win becausese it sees possible that biden may be will
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run again giving his advanced age. asat is a thoughts i have on it. some of these announcements have come on fridays which is odd because you don't think of friday is a big news breaking day but as we lead into the convention next week and it's happening and it's not a convention like we are used to but i think the idea is you announced it on friday and they are generating the talk on the weekend and then last week nationally for the convention so know when but that could come at any time but we have seen these come out on a friday and joe biden himself and barack obama running mate on friday and the news will leak that paul ryan would be mitt romney's llnning mate on a friday as well. >> host: democratic national convention begins next monday, next tuesday the centennial of the recitation of the 19th
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amendment so perhapsf see that s part of the rollout of what vice president former vice president joe biden has said will be a woman as his pick for vice president. michigan state with one of those potential contenders to be joe biden's vice presidential nominee, gretchen whitmer, governor there. also estate with key senate race this cycle so let's start there on the phone. ralph is in battle creek, michigan. good morning, democrat. >> caller: yes, i was wondering if this analyst has new swing states or different swing states for this presidential election pretty icing texas and nbc had a electoral college production and they had texas and ohion in georgia, i think, as swing states up for grab estate so is that or is the map changing a
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lot? >> host: as you answer that question this is the presidential electoral college ratings from crystal ball. if you need to talk to that map it is therefore you. >> guest: great question. i do think thatt the map of competitive states is relatively large for president and maybe not relatively large compared to a few generations ago but in our few the post- close to the national average but i say texas is definitely showing that the list of competitive presidential states i think georgia is now in that category and ohio and iowa where the two states that voted pretty heavily for donald trump in 2016 and prior to that more classically states voted class to the national average and those dates are competitive too. if you look at our map all four of the states were republican
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and they are still getting the presidents benefits but honestly if you want to make a case for calling them tossup's or coin flip states i thank you very well could do that. effectively if you look at the current polling you find they're not that closely competitive and if you feel as i did that winning this race might tighten a little bit down the stretch here maybe those states, maybe that vindicates our republican ratings in that state but the bottom line is the president can't pick any of the states for granted and again states are familiar to people who follow electoral college every four years it is that way and texas is new and if texas were to become a bona fide swing state in the next ten years or what have you that really caused a problem for republicans because replicants are used to [inaudible] second-biggest state
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and it is growing quickly and will add another two, three electoral votes after the upcoming census so it will be reporting electoral votes starting the 2024 election so it's a huge prize and democrats have hammer locked some of the other big states like california, illinois and new york. you have to wonder about the electoral college future if texas becomes a swing state because the republicans can't win without ohio, let alone, without texas. >> host: we want to focus on race ratings for a little bit. your map currently has joe biden winning -- >> believe this portion of today's washington journal to fulfill our commitment for gavel to gavel coverage of the senate here on c-span2. you can watch the rest of this discussion at c-span .org. now live to the senate


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