>> alt 26 of those american letters. >> it's really an astonishing achievement and one i find hard to believe every time i dig into it that one man's brain produce this wild series telling and retelling of american history. the book is very much worth your time. and long may it prosper. >> thank you very much. [applause] >> book tvs coverage of the printers lit best in chicago continues. >> good morning. so, thank you guys for joining us here at the c-span stage.

today we are going to talk to geraldo dom about the hispanic republican shaping of an american political identity participants will be geraldo and the moderators and michael point a. all right, welcome to the 36th annual south planning board printers row please help me give a special thank you to all of our sponsors. [applause] >> before we begin we ask you silence your cell phones and turn off your camera flashes. and then please also welcome geraldo cadava. >> thank you thank you else

good to be here. >> hello everybody i'm also a guest host for chicago tonight latina voices on w dtw that is on saturdays at 6:00 p.m. i am honored to be here today at the printers world literary festival the very special guest doctor geraldo cadava. thank you. and as we heard the author of the hispanic republican shaping of american political identity from nixon to trump that was published last year by echo and imprint at harpercollins publishers. >> that is correct. one 100% true. >> the funny thing about the situation right now, there is so much that has happened since the presidential election and things that are still happening. before we get into that, why don't we start off at from the beginning. what was the inspiration to write this book? >> thank you. first i had not even thought

about that. this is a very different conversation this year then it would have been at last years printers row festival. i was supposed to be there then we know the pandemic close things down. but, there's probably more to talk about this year after the election since there had been so much attention to how latinos voted. i mean for me, the inspiration for the book, is somewhat personal actually. my grandfather is a hispanic republican. i grew up in tucson, arizona. he is colombian, filipino and panamanian. he voted for the first time for a republican in 1980 because of a very particular purpose. he thought that reagan was promising to put more money back into his biweekly paycheck. he was working at a silver mine in arizona right outside of tucson. but then i was born in 1977, that was in 1980. then he kind of devolved and embraced every position of the

republican party from border restriction, to being against abortion, to social benefits and welfare rights. and so i was curious to understand the evolution of his of politics over a long period of time and how someone becomes fiercely loyal to the republican party from having voted for a republican wants because of a particular issue. he and i had argued about politics for a long time. from the time i was first tuning into politics and is maybe 13, 14, 15 '90s it was about, we were arguing about politics. i was thinking about what made a latino conservative, why latinos were conservative for a long period of time. it's that we had been in the back of my head. i've written my first book called standing on common

ground, making of the sun belt borderlands was about arizona and sonora. in that book i also read about a mexican american department store owner who was a conservative republican. against the united farmworkers , and friends with terry goldwater, against unions in general for his department store employees. he was a mexican/american republican in arizona. that also defied all of my expectations of what a latino conservative would look like. to the extent we know anything about latino conservatives, it's about the cuban-americans and cuban exiles in miami, florida. so having this example both in my grandfather and this mexican american department store owner, gave me a census was a much bigger array, more widespread, more deep than i had known about. i think the combination of those two things, my grandfather's example and my

ongoing arguments with him about politics in this conservative department store owner in tucson is what set me down the road. >> host: i guess i should've set up a little better leading up to 2020 general elections estimated 32 million latinos were eligible to vote in a presidential election. that was the most ever and made latinos the largest voting bloc after non-hispanic white. in more than african-americans. historically we know latinos have voted with democrats. but historically 70% for the democrats, 30% of the gop. but latinos could vote in greater numbers for president trump. and it seems like some of the end roads that republicans have made with latinos almost seemed like it could crumble given some of the rhetoric and harsh tools president trump, some things he said about latino americans. but it's almost like it has been the opposite.

that some people gravitated to that even now. but, before we even get into that, is it a surprise that latinos have voted say historically about 30% for republican candidates over the past 50 years? looks at me and i am not surprised by that. a historian who studied it and studied the phenomenon my personal engagement has been over a decade. but, latinos have voted for republicans at that rate somewhere between a quarter and the third of them in every election since richard nixon's reelection in 1972. there's a half century history between a quarter and the third of latinos giving their support to the republican candidate. and that is always underestimated. always a surprise. part of it is because what we are told about how latinos are going to vote. i think a lot of democratic

pendants who are latinos set up the expectation that latinos are going to vote for democrats. and again they do. here's one difference between me as a historian in me as a political analyst who is closely focused on winning elections and therefore is concerned with what the 51 or 52% of latinos are going to do. if you are concerned about the 51 or 52% latinos are democrats, they help democrats win elections. as historians to understand the best i can one 100% of latinos the important part of the history, culture, politics i'm concerned with trying to explain one 100% of latinos. to me 30%, 35%, 38% maybe is what donald trump won this year. with george w. bush 40 -- 44%. that is a nontrivial number of people. that is a millions of voters every election who are latinos voting for republicans.

i think you set up a teaser about why trump? we can certainly get into that. >> one of the interesting aspects of the book and truth be told i interviewed doctor geraldo cadava about hispanic republican supporters for trunk, but in your book you write that, one of the reasons why republicans started to go after latinos was because the major drop off of african-americans voting for republicans historically and going towards more for democrats, can you explain that a little bit? >> sure that was very explicit among republican strategists in the late 1960s. after the 1964 election were barry goldwater lost badly to lyndon johnson, the republican party was kind of in a rebuilding soul-searching mode.

they were very explicit. nixon's campaign advisors new, as michael said after the 1964 election it had already been happening. the trend in service african-americans were fleeing the republican party in droves. and republican strategists after 1964 new they had to make up for that lost support somewhere. latinos were the prime candidates. there long business idea that latinos are natural republicans as reagan famously said a couple decades later tina's are natural republicans i just don't know it yet. there'd also been this logic among mexican american republicans primarily that the democratic party had ignored them over the course of decades. so their theory was that latinos had built up a lot of loyalty to the democratic party ever since the new deal.

because fdr was helping them find jobs. was helping them put more food on the table, money in their pockets. they developed according to mexican american republicans this blind loyalty to the democratic party. and the democratic party in the 40s and 50s had grown to take them for granted. that possibly rings a little familiar to you today as well. the idea that the democratic party granted and do not make a sincere effort to reach out to them, recruit their vote, make clear to them why there policies are better than the republican policies. that phenomenon democrats ignoring latinos is also very old. >> when i do hear that though there is a missing component when people say democrats take latinos for granted. not change it racial here, is

that white democrats taken latinos for granted? only because they're so many now elected hispanic democrats as there are democratic american assessment is that their own ethnicity taking for granted their ethnicity that i am latino, let's say for example chuy garcia here in chicago, congressman he will take for granted other latinos voting for him just because they're latino? i think that's a great question. i think it's one the democratic party is in the middle of wrestling with. since i would say the 1980s democratic party is also moved into different directions. historians taught one important wing of the democratic party. like silicon valley, tech people who are saving the world, that is one very wealthy democrats who are democrats. they are not necessarily a

natural alliance with the working-class people of color a lot of people also assume is an important phase of the democratic party. he raised a real possibility. i don't know the answer. part of what's so interesting about the moment right now is it is still being written. i don't think we know indirection politics is going to move in in two years, four years. think there's a lot of theories, there's a lot of jockeying and posturing from republicans and democrats for the soul of the country is and who has the momentum. you do raise an important possibility of white democrats like joe biden have taken latinos for granted because latinos get lumped in with other people of color and american working class is having some natural connection to the democratic party. how could they possibly vote for anyone else.

part of what happened with joe biden is that he was not a candidate who had a natural connection with latinos over a long period of time. unlike people like i don't know, george w. bush was the governor of texas sure jeb bush his brother the former governor of florida who been working to cultivate relationships with latino overlong period of time i was in the same thing about richard nixon thinking about george h.w. bush, ronald reagan and the same thing about democrats even barack obama and bernie sanders he did really well among latinos in the primaries. joe biden did not have a natural connection historically, personally, and so i think that led him and many around him to push off recruiting latinos until after the democratic convention 2020. and that did not work out terribly well for him.

>> we do know the bush family, george w. bush, they have latino representation in their family. there is hispanic representation there. as a route leading up into the 2020 election in the candidacy for donald trump, did it seem -- to be worried is not a good word but looking at some of these inroads that republicans were making with hispanics over the years? was there any fear that could have eroded because the messaging coming out of the trunk campaign? >> among republicans of the fear? yes i think they did. we know by now donald trump started his campaign by descend on the golden escalators talk about mexican rapists, murderers, thieves and that caused quite an uproar for all of the right reasons. and, from the get go therefore

hispanic republicans were put in the position they were on the defensive, they were at great pains to justify their support for this man who started his campaign in this way. so even a lot of trumps hispanic advisors in august of 2016. i don't if you guys remember this there is one day when he flew to mexico to meet with i think it was henrique at that time the president of mexico and then came back and given immigration focus speech in phoenix was kind of an anti- immigrant ranch and he called onto stage the mothers of children, not children but family members, sons, daughters who had been killed by undocumented immigrants allegedly. that was a real moment were many hispanic republicans were turned off. many of his closest hispanic advisors dropped off of his hispanic advisory committee. but then it was really interesting to watch, some stayed on. those who stuck with trump as

there are west they would have greater influence from inside the white house if they stuck with him. they were in a seat at the table to try to push them in the right direction. but even those people, even those skeptics in 2016 came around in the four years that trump was in office. because, look at the economy said. before cope with the economy was working really well for latinos. latino families had a greater -- the highest family median income they had ever had. lower rates of unemployment, all these things. the plan going into the 2020 campaign was to really focus on all of the economic accomplishments of the trump administration. and also the freedom of religion. very early on in the trump administration, mike pence and trump who we all know it's not the best kind of a representative as a value

candidate, a moral value candidates. but, very early on there both make a concerted effort to recruit latino evangelical. i think they were very optimistic going into the 2020 campaign season that trump was going to expand his support. that was questioned by the pandemic for sure. that was another moment when latino republicans went to great pains to justify why they were sticking with trump. then as we all remember, the summer of 2020 became this galvanizing moment because of the black lives matter protests. because of the monuments coming down. i think what happened with latinos is the trump campaign very effectively, that is when they really focus on the antisocialist message. it had always been percolating but had these wild mobs in the

streets, looting stores, tearing down statues. and they began to use that to leave the latino community. even here in chicago i don't if you guys remember this, in the wake of georgia floyd's murder there all these protest downtown. puerto ricans right over there were talking of the african-american looters. some of that rhetoric was really successful. so yes, i think there was. latino republicans, those closest to trump heading into 2020, i think their optimism was sincere that trump was going to do even better. i think the combination of the pandemic and the summer protests stirred things up, called that into question. and so they were skeptical about how he would do among latinos. it seems like that was a very effective strategy for him to try to exploit some of the tensions of 2020.

>> you are right about that. the one thing the republican party does very well and the trunk campaign is they are exploiting or making issues of issues that are very regional importance. we think of immigration and people crossing the border. for folks who live along arizona and southern texas border, my family has history in laredo, texas right on the border. and last summer a national story about how latinos, mexican americans living in a little town on the border that my family has a history of that are supportive of donald trump's initiative because they are addressing a very real issue of immigrants crossing the border onto their property. it can be a very scary issue.

no matter what the background is of the person you don't want someone coming on your property crossing fence as it can be dangerous. they are taking something that's a very regional concern and blowing it out. the democrats have not had an effective message, how are you going to deal with that? how are you going to stop a very basic and nuisance if you will, along a border between mexico and the united states? it does seemed like the republican party can really know how to dig in and exploit what really is very regional but very important issue. >> i think that is right. the only thing i would say in addition is that who knows why, because of cable news? trumps media personality a lot of these regional issues become nationalized. i think for a long time, a lot of the building won't

mentality the anti-immigrant sensibility has been as effective in rural communities in pennsylvania like hazleton, or in long island which these are places which historically not been associate with latinos. but over the past 20 -- 25 years have seen a dramatic increase of latin american immigrants living in those communities. they are communities newly wrestling with the presence of people who are different from them. i think that is how regional issues along the border get nationalized. >> you have other things going on along the border. these are communities that rely on employment by the border patrol or police agencies. i talked to some latino republicans who also noted president biden were at that time candidate bidens position on fracking, oil rubbed texans the wrong way. i think we can talk about the

rio grande valley is one of the mysteries both parties i think are trying to either stanch the bleeding if your democrats are capitalize on the momentum of your democrats. i think a lot of eyes will be on texas and the next two years both in terms of state elections and nationally. >> now, it's really difficult for folks in the press. when they talk about the latino vote they say there's no such thing as the latino vote because it's so deluded. when you were doing this book, we generally tend to think of cuban-americans in miami as your staunch republican supporters. but in reading your book it seems like it crosses a gamut. there's a huge swath of mexican americans, puerto ricans, argentinians who gravitate to the message of the republican party.

maybe even pre-trump. rex totally. yes. absolutely. i am the one who is pretty down on thinking in terms of voting blocks. and thinking about unity among 60 million americans. why would you assume 60 million americans, 20% of the country with feel the same way about anything? i understand from the media perspective from political analyst perspective, i think part of what happens is these days we think about the electoral vote. we know it's very frustrating that only a handful of states seem to decide the election, right? the states are places like florida, texas, california, arizona, these really electoral vote rich places

that also have a lot of latinos living in them. i think that's why you try to categorize the latino vote by saying well, latinos in florida are the cuban-americans who are conservative. the cubans in texas, texas is a unique place have a lot of liberal mexican americans coming of conservative, when campaigns are concerned about the electoral college, joe biden's team -- mike they want to get the quick and dirty information they need to go campaign in a place like florida or place like texas, or arizona. i think that leads to in a quick gloss characterizing latinos in this place. joe biden just wants to know how to go appealed to latinos in florida. that's what leads to things like as hispanic heritage month performance almost a year ago he puts up his phone

into a microphone thinking that's the thing that's going to appeal to latinos. and i think, i'm not saying, there's a lot of talk whether the electoral college is good or bad but i don't think we paid a lot of attention to at the electoral college and thinking in terms of the electoral college means for latinos in particular. i think they are another group that the electoral college leads to misinterpretation, misunderstandings of them. it encourages, and incentivizes campaigns, the media to think in terms of blocks and group identity. when the truth is, when you look at the ten states with the closest margin of victory in about 2016 and 2020 they include places like wisconsin, pennsylvania, and iowa, and maine, and massachusetts, not massachusetts i'm sorry that's not true. that's not where the ten close

estates. >> michigan rattling off. the fact of the matter is there are enough latinos in all of those places to swing elections. but we hardly hear about them. and so, i would encourage anyone political analyst, campaigns, media to start seeing latinos as a truly national population that's a very diverse. not just the ways you think they are diverse, not cubans, mexicans and puerto ricans but rural, non- rural, working-class, wealthy, you know, you name it professional, blue-collar, however you want to kind of think about differences, religious, nonmalicious. they are diverse in all of those ways. it is not just they are mexicans and cubans and listen to different music and whatever. they are diverse in all the ways that every other group of americans are diverse. and there are 60 million people. they can make a difference wherever they live.

i think truly seeing latinos as an extremely diverse national population is important. i think one of the things he needs to be addressed here in one of the things that should not be ignored is when you are a latino trump supporter and it's probably true in some other family to that are not latino. but not necessarily being latino republican but a latino trump supporter has cause division among families. i can say that for my own extended family where politics one of the things you talk about the dinner table's politics and religion. nowadays it has really caused division among families where it is a nonstarter. it is a breaking point with some families where if you are a supporter of donald trump and you are latino family

that's it you're going to be cut off. or it has a fractional eyes families. when i did a story last summer talking to latino trump supporters, we almost take it from an angle as an oddity. but they do not see themselves as oddity. they do not see themselves as being sellouts or self hating hispanics. they would gravitate to such a message. when you talk to latino republicans or latino trump supporters, how did they see themselves? >> one 100%. to touch on the first thing, we've always, latinos that is we've always recognize the differences in our families. i told you i began by talking behind arguing about politics with my grandfather for decades. so it's interesting for me that we recognize these

divisions within our families but we have a hard time scaling that up to recognize why with the country be any different than our families if you scale it up. they talk about national politics were all democrats that's weird to me i don't how that happens. i member really well this political organizer they think were democrats and were not. part of it is accepting there is going to be political diversity are one of the others that latinos should that is prescriptive.

i don't think they should part of it should be part of the conversation. i think democrats, republicans, anyone who wants to seek support from the latino vote should take their political views seriously. and the idea that they have political views. seeing them as political thinkers come to their bubbly earnestly because they believe in what they support. that is a shift we should make. i think democrats should do that too. latinos are political thinkers with their own political ideas will be more likely to go recruit their support. goats sell your ideas to them instead of taking their votes for granted. i heard some political analysts quietly say, if it is true that latinos are increasingly like swing voters , ultimately that's probably a good thing. it will allow or force political parties to recruit

latino voters instead taken for granted. the latinos will win if both parties are truly fighting for the vote. they said that quietly the other thing they understand is the other thing they are afraid of is, if it seems like latinos are swing voters if it is true latinos don't care if it's not an issue they prioritize why are we going to spend so much time and effort passing immigration overhaul? so democratic political analyst are really worried that if it seems like latinos are fractured and swing voters, they have long believed there is power in numbers. the way to get things done in

washington on behalf of latinos is say if you pay attention to this growing voting block with enormous political power, you are going to be in trouble for it. but if it turns out the case that latinos don't all care about the things that democratic political strategist care about, that will make it harder for them to sell their positions. i think that is the conundrum that democrats feel themselves to be in. >> before i ask you one more question, i am going to ask the audience to have your questions. if you have them ready and you have a question for professor geraldo cadava and asked that. as you thing about your questions and coming up to the mike i want to ask more thing, just again in terms of president trump's campaign in the last 2020 election, how

well did he do with latinos? was it as well as he thought he was going to do? >> i think that he did pretty well. he exceeded what my expectations would have been. again, he had latinos close to him in february, march of 2020 who were saying donald trump is going to win the latino vote outright. he would win more than 50%. i always thought that was fanciful. no republican had one more than 40 or 44% which is what george w. bush one. i didn't think he was going to win. they felt like that a lot of momentum. i thought that the pandemic and the summer protest would dampen support for him is that the right word? you know, take him down a notch. it turns out that didn't

happen. what's interesting to me is a sense the election in november , the news about how latinos voted is only moved in one direction as more detailed analyses, precincts and everything becomes available, the news had gotten only better for donald trump. the most recent one i think it came out in april or may that donald trump won 38% of latino vote. that's higher than the 32% reported from the exit polls. that would be a pretty remarkable outcome. again, george w. bush was the republican president who run the most latino support 40 -- 44%. i'll think anyone would have imagined donald trump will be the second coming of george w. bush kind of opposite strategies for recruiting latinos.

that is also when i say the story has not been written yet. because we don't know. there are a lot of republicans now saying what this election showed is that latinos are increasingly conservative, they just are. it is their theory. they have an interest in selling that theory. they want to make it seemed like they have the momentum. democrats on the other hand want to say you can't make any generalizations based on the 2020 election. 2020 was just too unique. there many people like talk to to that felt the pandemic hadn't happened donald trump would be the beginning of his second term. so 2020 was unique because of the pandemic. 2020 was unique unique because you had such a unique figure kind of charismatic leader like donald trump. we cannot take a success among latinos has 2020 is any sign of what's going to happen in

2022 and 2024. i would not discount either of those possibilities that latinos are increasingly conservative for a whole bunch of reasons. democrats will say that's not true. but i would not bet against it i don't know. something with democrats. maybe 2020 was not representative of anything or maybe it's true you do need to change your approach to latinos. i am not sure. i think it's a really interesting moment we are in. >> sounds like you're starting up another book for. >> no, no, no, i'm interested in thinking and talking about these things i'm not going to write about again. i would love to hear questions. honestly i talk about the step all the time it's in my head. i love hearing from other people with their interesting, surprising, unique perspective. if you do have questions about this i would love to hear them. >> it looks like we do have somebody coming up to the

microphone, thank you. >> hi. despite the gross generalizations us so pardon my ignorance. we talk about the distinction among latino voters is there one among newly arrived latino versus older established latino voters? >> yes, sure. you are probably familiar with these ideas in general terms. you can even look at the democratic primary as an example. it was younger latino voters, more progressive who supported bernie sanders. it was an older for those of 45 and above who are more likely to support joe biden. there's a lot of attention on how bernie sanders did in nevada and california. joe biden split the latino vote with sanders in arizona and texas pretty think even a

democratic primary, those are just latino democrats. they were more divided than the think we understood them to be. but for sure, nationally during the general election yes the younger more progressive latinos on average like in percentage terms or more likely to favor joe biden than older latinos. but, i always want to throw wrinkles into things. there is a real effort among the republican party to recruit latino youth. in rico south texas the head of a group his mom is a national head of the republican national assembly. there is an awareness among republicans they still do have a demographic problem and that they are not ignoring the fact they also need to reach out to latino youth and that over

time, among a growing population of latinos continuously winning 38 -- 35 even 40% of this increasingly important demographic. this is not good news for them. they cannot do that. that when 30 -- 40% of an demographic is going to lead to success. i think it democrats get too caught up in what they think if they only reach out to latinos. they only spent more and reached out earlier that would inevitably lead to success. but they don't understand or don't pay attention to her want to ignore the fact republicans are also organizing along these lines. so yes i think latino youths are more progressive. they are more likely to support democrats. i think that i'm trying to avoid a situation where anyone becomes too comfortable

thinking they know how to reach out to latinos. we are fine because latino youth are progressive. we are waiting for the wave of the next 20 or 30 years. that comment to me, that could lead to some sort of complacency. we need to wait a little longer until these latino youth auteur. i don't want that to happen. i want all parties every year to think they need to work to convince latinos. >> he gives a brief grocery list of which conservative who tend to be attracted to latino? >> the question was okay five minutes? glad were having fun. the question was can we offer a brief grocery list of the issues that drought latinos to

the conservative party? we know abortion and religion that's important. i think we know half of it, i think i'm going to get it confused but half of latinos are half of catholics. half of catholics are latino or half of latinos are catholics. the greatest number are still catholic. the fastest growing religion among them as evangelical protestants. they have different ideas about abortion and even capitol accumulation and financial success. i think religious liberty and increasing with evangelical protestantism is the important thing to look out for. i also think charter schools are very important. the majority of latino support charter schools. that has become -- progress on an issue or 20 years ago that it is today.

bill clinton, they supported charter schools. and the way it democrats think talk about charter schools is going to have to change if were going to appeal to latinos. if you look at the growth and charter schools the places they are growing as a texas, california, i want to say almost 40% of latinos school age children in california go to charter schools. and it is because the ways in which they have been left out of public school. looking for other opportunities to go to charter schools. somehow over the last ten years the party has come to own that issue. that something that's been really effective. there still this idea that business and entrepreneurial ship, the trump administration was hammering year in year out

we have/financial regulations but we have lowered taxes when they've done better than they've ever done before. the religion charter school business those are some i would point too. >> and got about a minute left. do you see latinos focus on the midterm elections? >> even before the midterms. we have the california recall coming up in just three days for there's a lot of attention whether latinos will show up. if they show up will they support larry elder? larry elder has been really reaching out to latinos and asians in part because of the success of donald trump in 2020. i think you're going to see republicans on the ground really organizing court the latino and asian american vote in 2022, 2024. there's a lot of seats up for

grabs in 2022 and places their national population. they can swing election everywhere they live. think there will be a lot of attention to it in 2022. >> history professor eight western university in chicago he is the author of the hispanic republican the shaping of an american political identity from nixon to trump. so happy to be here thank you so much geraldo cadava. >> thank you michael it's great to see you again pray thank you for your time. >> thank you all too. >> weekends on cspan2 are an intellectual feast. every saturday american history tv documents america's story and on sundays but tv brings you the latest nonfiction books and authors. funding for cspan2 comes from these television companies and more including micco.

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