tv Campaign 2022 Congressional Redistricting in Texas and New York CSPAN October 28, 2021 5:30am-5:54am EDT
the redistricting process for u.s. house races in texas and new york. >> currently there are about 334 united states that is according to the 2020 sexist figures. they are represented in congress by two senators from each of the 50 states and 435 members of congress. that 435 number has been set by law since 19209.
now, with the new census figures at which take into account the population growth in the united states and geographical and demographic will changes as well, the every ten year redistricting will start with the new districts will be in place for the 2022 midyear election. some states have lost members of congress new york and pennsylvania are two, while some like texas and florida it gained new members. well, to help us delve into those numbers is dave wasserman of the cook political report, mr. wasserman when you look at the census figures and that redistricting that is ahead, which political party do you see as benefiting the most at this point? >> we are going to have to wait to find out. the census showed a country getting more diverse, more urban. 52% of the county's loss of population between 2010 and 2020 which goes to show rural
america is declining to america's cities and suburbs. on the service that's good news for democrats they are the party doing better in cities and suburbs. the caveat is the country's politics have not changed that much in the last ten years. this added diversity, the growth is not made it more favorable to democrats they won the white house in 2020 that they did in 2012. the more important part of this is how lines are drawn from state to state. republicans get to draw the map in 20 states totaling 187 districts that's because state legislatures for the most part bear responsibility for this compared to 75 districts and eight states.
there also tend states that he is independent or bipartisan commissions the total one or 21 districts are six states with control split between the legislature of one party and a governor of the other. that adds up to 46 a districts. then there are six states that only have one district in the upcoming decade and do not need to divide their states into multiple seats. well, six states texas florida north carolina montana and colorado seven states are losing a member of congress new york, pennsylvania, michigan, ohio, illinois, and west virginia. when people move out of a state like illinois or west virginia, two states that lost population each are you losing a seat as well do they take the politics with them are they moving out of frustration of the politics?
>> we hear voters throwing their hands up in the air it states becoming too inhospitable to their political beliefs and are choosing to move elsewhere. it takes a lot of rigorous research to determine the size that affect on how blue or red states become. what we know is that over time as voters either choose to live in places that are politically more comfortable or as independent voters begin to lean more and more towards whatever party is dominant because of an echo chamber of fact or the predominant feeling in the community that we are seeing more geographic polarization. that plays into redistricting and a big way. if it had in its boundaries every precinct was 50/50
between the parties to be impossible for partisans to gerrymander that state and heavily red or blue districts imagine for a moment a state that has become heavily polarized between blue urban areas and red rural areas. it's easier than ever to essentially compartmentalize democrats and districts works preordained. the net effect of redistricting, although we cannot be sure which party is going to benefit or whether it could be a wash, the net effect when it comes to drawing maps which matters more geography or demographics? >> there inextricable. they are inextricably linked. in a lot of states, what we have seen is the minorities have accounted for most of the population growth on a net
basis in the past ten years. the rural district in many states have lost population are grown slowly in need to expand into territory. however it rubbed republicans and a lot of places will try to pack democratic votes into a small number of districts to maximize opportunities elsewhere. democrats in many states are geographic disadvantage. in the state of wisconsin the state overall is pretty evenly divided. her concentrated and overwhelmingly blue cities madison, and milwaukee. as a result, even if you draw a map that is fairly compact and draws a district that is madison. draws a district that is in milwaukee, the state's other six districts will lean republican by a fair margin for even a partisan blind map could generate six republicans
, just to democrats. >> texans and 15, 16% population growth in last ten years, 29 million people living there gaining two congressional seats. >> that is right. texas is an example of how demographic change can constrain what a party might otherwise draw. texas has 23 republicans and democrats right now. republicans are going to try to have the states to new seats for themselves. but they have to play defense as well. 95% of texas population gained was non- white in the past decade on a net basis. what that means is republicans have a lot of seats particularly in the suburbs that are becoming more competitive. at the 23 seats republicans currently hold, nine of them are districts where president biden got more than 47% of the
vote in 2020. republicans first priority is to be sure those districts episode democrats cannot win them in 2022 or down the line in the next decade. in order to do that, they may have to draw a new democratic district in the city of austin. currently, austin is split effectively at six different ways. republicans are going to attempt to make their own incumbents safer. one easy way to do that would be by drawing that new democratic district. but we are also seeing republicans have gained strength in the rio grande valley. we solve big swings toward dalton between 2016 at 2020 and counties along the mexico border. and republicans may try to make some of those seats and south texas more favorable to their own cause. we could seep republicans and up with perhaps 25 of the 38
districts in texas. but any more than that, and republicans could be getting too aggressive for their own good. >> the growth ascenders are austin and houston in texas? >> also has seen far and away the most explosive growth in the state. we've also seen big growth in the suburbs of dallas, houston and san antonio as well. that is of a republicans are going to have to be on guard. because we have seen these in metro areas of texas trend of blue. that means republicans are going to have to draw in a lot of rural areas into some of the suburban seats to make sure they do not fall to democrats in the next ten years. >> james is with the texas tribune. what is the process for redistricting in texas? speak to the little bit different this year because the census got slowed down
through some issues they had. but right now we are going through a 30 day special legislative session. in that 30 day special session where going to draw out new maps for the state house, the state senate, congressional seats we have in first state board of education. >> host: has the population increase in texas been broad-based or centered in a certain area? >> it has been pretty brought across the board throughout the state. but it has been concentrated in urban areas. that is important because in those urban areas there have been an increase of a population that has been driven primarily of people of color. we had a story on her new site that said 95% of the growth in the state had been driven by people of color. that is important because the state grew by 4 million people over the last decade. nearly 2 million of those were hispanic growing the population. that is important because that
has to be commensurate with the new districts that are drawn. in other words do hispanics, to other people of color get more opportunities to elect candidates and their district? so far the answer to that has been no. >> host: so demographics play a major role in this redistricting? >> undoubtedly they should. one of the standout topics of conversation as we have seen the early versions of the maps is neither the state senate map nor the congressional map, has there been new districts drawn to get opportunities to hispanics. that will be a district where hispanics are the majority of the population and therefore more likely to elect the candidate of their choice. so even though hispanics have driven the major part of the population growth in texas, they have no more opportunities to choose the elected officials of their choice in these districts.
that's also important to congressional map because the congressional map for population growth has two additional districts were going from 36 to 38 now. the hispanic population growth is not reflected there. >> host: that's not necessarily a negative for the republicans as is on the 2020 election and the latino vote, correct? >> they would argue it's not necessarily that in south texas were president trump really got a lot more support than was expected. but, it is a problem for them and that not drawing any hispanic opportunity districts that are potentially running a foul of the voting rights act. now the map drawers have said they are drawing these race blind. i think that is an effort to sort of tiptoe around some of the supreme court decisions that came out in the last
decade you can politically gerrymander you cannot racially gerrymander. at the end of the day there is no additional. under proposed map if these maps get challenged in court. there's talk the whole process could end up in court? >> undoubtedly. 1965 here in texas they have challenged every map since the 1970s. and they won every decade since then. their president who is based
here in dallas had already told senate committees are no changes to this map to reflect the growth of the hispanic population and texas for they will undoubtedly challenge these maps again. >> 38 million people in texas, 38 congressional districts in 2022. james is with the texas tribune, we appreciate your time. >> thank you for having me. the number 45 members of congress down to 27, what is happening there? >> the population has moved south and west. the sunbelt and the west continue to gain seats while new york has ebbed for a long time for even though new york is losing one district, they were pretty lucky not to lose
too. census data shows new york city with a more robust population gain an estimate suggested. new york came within 26 residents of keeping all 27 of its seats at this time. it's the redistricting weapon for either party in the country. the legislature has a final say over maps and democrats have a super majority in albany. what that means is they could convert the current map which has 19 democrats and eight republicans into a map that's more aggressive for democrats. gerrymander is the state in a way to get democrats up to 23 of the states 26 districts.
dimension the advisory commission this is a bipartisan commission of ten members that was established by a ballot initiative passed by voters. and yet it has been slow to function. the five democrats and five republicans have to come to some kind of consensus in order to advance redistricting maps to the legislature for consideration. there is actually a separate ballot initiative on the ballot this fall that could allow the legislature more leeway if it even proposals at all. it's an end around imposing
their will on the map. >> joshua solomon as a reporter with the albany times union. mr. solomon, where was newark's population loss? >> i appreciate you guys bringing me on. a lot of it was upstate, new york more rural populations. as you'd expect in the city, there were population increases appears almost exclusively in the new york city metropolitan area you sell the population increase. and elsewhere in the state you saw a lot of decreases especially in rural areas. >> host: about 90 million people currently reside in new york state. that city has about half that population, don't they? >> absolutely. they have a lot of the congressional districts there federally and state wide. see population there has continue to grow. office of the past decade you've seen a lot of folks
across the country moved to cities and new york city is no different there. so populations have increased their's and more rural areas which tend to be more republican in this state, those populations have decreased which will have political consequences. >> host: just from what you've said it sounds like it favors the democrats the redistricting process in new york this year. >> it does. there's one kind of nuance reason in particular does this year for years, decades the republican party in the state controlled the senate and it controlled the legislature was able to read all the district district lines. in this case, democrats are controlling the legislature they have super majority map
commission which is a ten member commission is the first go around. ghost of the legislature be up to the democrats to decide which maps do they want, do they want to redraw it themselves. there's been some indication they have interest in gerrymandering and they are in favor after seeing it in republican. almost we need to correct wrongs. >> host: the state legislature in new york could scrap the independent maps into redraw their own, correct? >> yes it was the democratic party calling for the commission to avoid gerrymandering in the past.
now they are calling for, let's get the maps, let's see what happens. they've left open the door to redrawing them, themselves. or maybe, so far what we have is the independent redistricting commission had two sets of meth or thought they would reduce only one. they have a democrat leaning one in republican leaning one. the democrat one way to gain congressional districts for new york in favor of democrats based off of voting patterns in 2020 by the republican plan would gain republican districts. so obviously, local elections state center having major consequences and having congressional districts and how many democrat or republican districts new york will have. >> given there's already two sets of maps and potentially a third coming, will this end up in court in your view? >> are were republicans of the
plan to take it to report so the republican party wholesale has mentioned they are interested in challenges. it would seem unlikely they would not take it to court. the bottom line is, these elections will be have this year. these midterm elections. and so there's going to be a lot of movement between now and then. and of course we have the governor's race with the democratic primary in june. >> host: sodas the governor have a role in redistricting? >> it's really in the legislature's hands. the governor and i believe the first interview to buffalo news, the hometown paper, or it may have been in the "new york times". nonetheless she kind of said i'm interested in making sure democrats keep their power and expand their power.