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tv   Coal Industry Analysis and Forecasts  CSPAN  January 12, 2018 9:17am-10:33am EST

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president trump gives his first state of the union address on tuesday january 30th at 8:00 p.m. after the speech we'll take your calls and get reaction from members of congress. the state of the union live on cspan and on tuesday january 30th. the international energy agency is forecasting coal use will continue to decline. the head of the agency's coal and gas division recently spoke about strategic and international studies.
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good afternoon. i'm senior fellow with national security program. it's my great honor to welcome peter frazier who is the head of gas, coal for the international energy agency. he is here to launch the coal 2017 coal has been the world's dominant fuel for a century. certainly the robust deployment of renewables but then combined with the cheap gas and has been putting quite a bit of pressure on the generation. so the coal 2017 is one of the
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iea's signature publications. it's previously known as a midterm coal market report. it provides comprehensive analysis heater is here to walk us through some of the analysis and help us better understand where the markets are headed to in the near to mid-future, i guess through 2022. previously between 1998 and 2004
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he was a senior electricity policy adviser. this is his second tour. in between peter worked at the ontario energy board. from 1989 to 98 he was an energy policy adviser at the ontario ministry. it is with my great pleasure. he will speak for maybe 20 to 30 minutes. i will have a couple of questions. i'll have some discussion up here and then certainly open the floor for questions and answers.
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as jane mentioned our global launch took place earlier today. the first time we have launched a major iea report. in india as india became an associate member of the energy agency earlier this year. i want to thank csis and particularly jane for the work done in organizing this event. as jane mentioned coal played a big part for a long time. it took until around 1910 for the consumption to reach about 1 billion tons a year. to get from 1 billion tons to 3
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billion tons took nearly 90 years to get from 3 billion to 5 billion only took 20 years. we have just come through the far side in coal demand. since around 2012 and 2013 demand was first plateaued. as i'll get into now demand has actually been dropping. the last two years marks the largest two-year drop we have ever seen in coal demand. unlike the previous occasions this occurred during a period of global economic growth. it was also the third
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consecutive year. it is also worth noting it is driven by outside the power sector. it is also the growth in renewables as i'll get into there a little while. these two large coal-consuming countries have had significant drivers. there is also continued drop in command. despite these major coal users reducing their demand there is growth in some regions.
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india, a few countries of the region contributed to this growth. those are driven by power generation demand. with this drop in the last two years, actually in 2017 we are seeing a rebound. it has also supported higher prices throughout the year. the question is what we are seeing a new trend or a blip? let's find out. let me start by talking about power systems in transportation.
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the chart shows the changes in other generation supply in the period. this first chart is the united kingdom. it is probably the case where the quickest transition from coal generation has occurred cht a combination of an actual decline in power demand, an old coal fleet, new environmental regulations, strong reknewabnew growth and an extra price floor over the ets value forced the closure of some coal plans. it's quite a rapid change.
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we have seen a drop but it's not just a story about natural gas. since 2012 we have seen a dropover coal and electricity to 2016 so you can go back and ten years ago which was close to 50% is now down to 30% of the power mixed today and last year as many of you will know gas generation accounted for more of the u.s. electricity supply. it was the first time that it
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happened. next notice it is double the u.k. notice that we have a quite different situation. it is quite interesting to compare germany and the u.k. there. there is a big growth there renewables. there is no corresponding shrinkage. a couple of factors to explain that is you can figure that out from the chart, one is a demand increase secondly is gas generation actually decreased in germany over the period. unlike the u.k. they don't have a carbon price floor. as a consequence there has been very little change despite the
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big introduction of renewables. finally let's look at china. in china you a combination of factors going on here. diversify case from coal which is by part the dominant source means more nuclear and more natural gas. power and demand growth has been bigger than the others combined. as a result coal generation itself has also increased during the period. so we see four different countries, four different stories with rather different impacts on coal generation. one of the common things on all of them is the growth of renewabl renewables. it will be a big factor effecting fossil fuel generation in years to come. lack of growth is not the whole story. there's a reality in many
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developing countries that's very different from the more developed countries and different even from china. if we combined bangladesh, pakistan and india across there and there are more than 2 billion people there. the per capita is rather low averaging about a thousand kilowatt hours per capita. that is already rather low compared to what you see in china which is already above the global average. it is lower still when we start to compare to the countries, which i think i can get. you can see it's more than double again. now, you notice also i did not put the u.s. on this chart. it is because the u.s. per
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capita consumption is literally off the chart. so it's possible and likely developing countries will not reach the level probably in the future. there is no doubt it will increase on economic growth. the future role of natural gas coal will also supply a significant share of the growing electricity needs. after a long decline in coal
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prices by early 2016 futures markets had an outlook. they anticipated the prices continued to fall. reality was quite different. a large part of this was reforms in china which increased demand for imported coal in china. here the part of the influence in prices going forward. since nearly half the world's coal is consumed in china and produced in china it will be
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very important to the world coal markets. the government has defined how it is going to aim for having a price target for coal. so it's defined with three areas. a green area which is their comfort zone. when it moves into the blue strip above or below that's an area they say they will be monitoring. when it moves into the red that's when they feel action is required. if i just plot that over the last couple of years you can see their discomfort that they would have felt in 2015 and early 2016. they took action to limit supply, close a lot of minds, limit the number of working hours of minors. that did push the prices up a little high in fact.
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so prices have been falling back down. part of the reason we say that is because we can certainly see a good correlation between the two. let me also now briefly mention coking coal prices. so that's new castle.
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it can have a strong short-term impact on the coking coal impact. you can see prices jumping up or doubling in a very short time as a result of whether events and severe rain has also been a factor in some case. as a result the prices jump up and down. so now let's turn to the demand supply picture. what i will present to you is a forecast region by region. this year, 2017 a strong power demand growth have meant that coal demand increased.
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in the coming years we expect coal use to decline, particularly in the nonpower sectors as gas is substituted for coal and residential and small industrial boilers. together with the economic changes that we have in china lower energy and progress and energy diversify case it is not likely to grow substantially. so if i turn now to india power demand growth will be robust. this is the main driver of coal demand growth. this is despite the fact we forecast over 150 hours of wind and solar power generation growth from 2016 to 2022. electricity demand will be more than this. the gap will have to be filled by coal.
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they grow at a stronger rate. indonesia, vietnam, miare part that capacity . now the u.s. in the u.s. we see a decline in growth in renewables. the decline will be much slower than we have seen in recent years. the eu represents only 6% and will decline over time. with more countries committed to phasing out coal plants it is what extent it will actually accelerate. so with the others, other
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countries which i didn't see here where there will be decreases, canada, for example, but overall there's a bit of growth there. what we see overall is demand being pretty flat after this year's increase. in other words this year's growth is a blip. if you think about it with the coal demand plateauing, what it means is about a decade where coal demand has been roughly the same or roughly stagnant.
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they will be more than offset by this decline in consumption in the small residential and industrial boilers and of course the changes in the economic factors which are leading to less energy intensive growth. when we look at where colors are being swictched out a majority are in the coastal areas. it is significant and also coal phasing out the other areas. it is switching principally to gas. it comes from the construction
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of ultrahigh voltage lines which in effect replace coal consumption from power generation in coal areas in the interior. in addition these power lines aren't just going to be coal. it will be also wind and in the south a line from hydro power as well. so we think it will be more significant. another country where this is important. dependency is a big issue.
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this is to show you how coal production increase has been reducing import dependency. the black bars here show the contribution from investing in renewables, in reducing coal use in india which we assumed here comes from imported coal. but there's a second and more important factor, which i think you can see there in the light blue bars. these second sets are the production increases we are seeing in india as a result of reforms in coal and other efforts to improve coal production. as you can see these are very significant. we saw coal imports decline in india in 2016. we see further decline in the imports out to 2022 to about 89
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million tons in 2022. to do this coal will have to perform. we do assume that the changes are being made will continue to be effected in increasing domestic production ensuring that coal is produced and able to be delivered to other users inside india. let me now turn to the u.s. in particular looking at the coal capacity situation -- oh, he me see if i can -- no. that's all right. this is looking out to the retired capacity together. we see no new coming in since 2013. on a net basis which we can show here, we have a big drop off
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through 2016 into 2017. we do see the rate of capacity retirements declining in the next few years. so what we anticipate is a much slower decline in coal generation in the united states compared to what we have seen there recent years. our reasoning is very much along the lines that gas prices have got pretty much as low as they can go. the more inefficient parts are what has been retired. the older and less efficient plants are ones that have closed. as a result the coal industry that's left is more we fieffici than it was a few years ago and we think will be more resilient to future shocks. oops.
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now, let me talk about the trade. as you may have already surmised, we are looking at a change in trade starting with the imports in 2016 and we look at how the imports evolve to 2022. and the interesting thing here when we look at the imports is the biggest coal users, we are forecasting they will all reduce their imports over the period. however, we must admit that there's a lot of uncertainty about whether or not this will occur. kli china and india are big markets where markets compete. china, depending on the situation, imports could go up in a given year. in the case of japan where the decline in coal imports is due
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to nuclear restarts we have uptake of renewables. imports would increase if reactors restart. there is already a 4.6 gig watts under construction in japan. in korea things are more uncertain. the new government has been making those to reduce the share. you see how we build up the trade number for 2022. on the right side is how it looks on the export side. among the export indonesia will be seeing a large decrease in exports. the reason for that is increasing domestic demand is because more power plants in indonesia and difficulties in cost competitiveness. we expect they will
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significantly reduce their exports. the u.s. on the other hand, we have a very small increase, certainly not nearly the scale we are seeing this year. it is the swing provider. it has enough mining capacity on the east coast and can react if prices are right. i would like to focus the last part of the presentation on carbon capture and utilization. that is because carbon capture utilization is one of those that has been making some progress but not nearly enough. this technology has been proven. so i want to mention to you it is a corn ethanol facility where the co 2 is stored in plant.
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quest is a canadian project which can capture up to 1 million tons of co 2. these projects have common characteristics. installed on exists operating assets. they were relatively low of technology ris risks. they exist because of coalition of public and private stake holders. there is also a clear source of revenue to cover the cost or the
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lifetime. with the right approach it can work and in some ace cases is working. despite these examples from gue -- progress is lagging behind. urgent action is needed to support it. without it the challenge will be much bigger and more costly. that's why we at the iea together with countries and industry leaders are working to give a new momentum. coal use would be seriously con trained in the future. the iea is committed to pushing it forward. they drop new regulations and disper investments.
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they cochaired a high-level summit which brought together ceos of the high energy companies. we must build on this commitment and now move forward and act. so finally to wrap up let me conclude with some main messages. global coal demand is set to stagnate through 2022. the 2017 increase, it's a blip. second, the structural but slow decline that china is taking place with fluxuations up and down determined by market needs. we may see china go up but it can go down again too depending on conditions.
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india shlgs sou india, south asia and southeast asia are leading the growth that offsets the declines that were forecasted. fourth, the global trade numbers are actually contracting. uncertainty in this estimate is pretty high given all of the uncertainties in the big importers. and finally, coal use in the future will be constrained without carbon capture, unitely sooigs and storage becoming implemented widely. now, at today's launch after our presentation we had comments from the secretary of coal about the report, and the secretary commented that coal will
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continue to supply base load energy. he was also very supportive of the idea of carbon cab i think our messages are getting through and i think our outreach to new countries in our association members is really paying dividends and we're having an influence on the coal -- on the coal policies in the world today. with that i'd like to thank you for listening. [ applause ] >> that was fantastic. thank you so much, peter. very comprehensive. i mean, we are looking at all these sort of major market mover countries, but within the country, you know, there are all these -- you know, the power market is fast evolving and certainly there is coal usage in
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the non-power sector as well that are impacted by a lot of different concerns, you know, whether socioeconomic or political, market oriented. but i wanted to -- since you are in washington -- i wanted to ask you some of the u.s.-focused questions. you did already mention that the increased u.s. coal export this year is probably more of a blip, but, i guess, you know -- and i realize that it's very much, you know, driven by market fundamentals, but, for example, recently the u.s. started exporting coal to ukraine and it had -- you know, it was looking at, i guess, specific type of coal. i mean, i guess there are always certain lower hanging parts,
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potential markets that u.s. coal still could be appealing, i suppose. i might be mistaken, but if you could sort of help elaborate on that that would be great. >> sure. i would be happy to. first of all, thermo coal market and metallurgical coal market are different. even though our forecasts for metallurgical coal are quite flight, 20, 22 levels globally since 2016. there are several growth in countries particularly india where we see specific growth in metallurgical coal demand. there is -- there are in certain countries a need for more metallurgical coal. as a result i think there are some opportunities there. overall -- overall we actually do -- we didn't break it out -- break it out in the analysis there, but in the actual report
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which i should show you looks like this, that we actually look at ukraine and i guess eurasian countries together and it is one of the other areas where we see some opportunities. so that is an area where there are also some possibilities for increased consumption. in many areas, of course, that are rather close to russia, but ukraine is in a rather different situation when it comes to that. because the russian competitiveness has improved quite a bit with the fall in ruble. so in other countries we think probably the russians are in the best position to take advantage of that. >> if i'm not mace taken i guess the met coal export is more profitable for u.s. coal exporters than i guess the thermo coal side. to what extent could that ease the pain that the u.s. coal industry is experiencing in the balance sheets?
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>> well, snaes a hard -- that's a hard one. we didn't examine u.s. balance streets so i can't give you an opinion as to how much it is. as i said, overall met coal is flat. it's not like met coal is growing away, it's just there are particular countries where that's an opportunity so you do see a new mine opening here and that's a clear indication that the market thinks there's something there. certainly the dependence on greens land for metallurgical coal exports is something that maybe even customers would be looking for other sources. >> i guess within the u.s. discussion on the future of coal, you know, we do pay a lot of attention to socioeconomic challenges, namely coal mining sector how they are under quite a bit of pressure. does your report give some sense of the rate of, i guess, automation, the use of -- you know, how it's becoming sort of a modernized upstream and how that may impact the labor force
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iss issue? >> we didn't address labor force explicitly, we looked at very much from the cost perspective and we've seen significant productivity improvements in the u.s. sector as well as in other countries as well. with this recent shakeout in the industry and the very low prices they saw until last year. >> and i also want to just cover two more markets quickly, but i do certainly want to save some for the audience to ask, but of course china has been the major importer of the global coal supply. you did touch upon how there has been the supply side effort and these, you know, supply side reform has been focused on improving safety -- the standards, also improving efficiency. what's your assessment of the progress that they are making on some of these targets?
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>> okay. good question. our assessment -- and we were fortunate this year that we had an official from shen yua coal working with us on this report so he was helpful to us in terms of getting certain information, otherwise it would have been difficult for us to obtain. that's thanks to our -- we were able to do that thanks to our association with china. on that what we've seen, certainly the information or the data that we've got suggests there has been a significant improvement in cost reduction, that the policies have been effective. now, of course, with one of the policies, which was the number of working days regulation, they found actually it caused this overcorrection and the prices spiked, imports came in and so they realized they had to relax that, but i think, again, this is trying to control -- trying to control -- impose in the market a market mechanism and finding the limits -- finding
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the limits of how much they can impose on this, but i do think they have seen some real progress there. >> you've also touched upon high voltage transmission and how that may impact, i guess, trade flow. would you mind elaborating a little bit on that? >> well, it's just that, again -- again, when it comes to china the scale of this is enormous and so we are talking hundreds of tara watt hours of power that can move from eastern china to southeastern china or southeastern china to the coast. this will make it easier to have this inter regional trade of electricity and presumably much more efficient. at the same time the coastal areas are also doing what they can to reduce their own coal consumption or in some cases the emissions from that, as we see much more on the boiler side, but also in the power side. so i think it's going to be an
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attractive option. china is also in the middle of power reform and how this -- with this additional infrastructure bill that should actually hopefully make the power reforms more effective. >> maybe one -- i guess last question for this segment. on india, so india still has about 3 million people that do not have access to modern form of electricity, if i'm not mace taken. >> yes. >> i guess the utilization of the thermo power fleet, predominantly low is fairly low, if i'm not mistaken it's low 60s or maybe even high 50s. what's happening there? >> well, i think the utilization factor, load factor, is really more a function of how quickly they've been building the coal plants versus how quickly the demand has been going up, but the government that is made specific efforts to improve the financial health of the distribution companies and also at the same time impose a requirement to go and connect
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everybody. so the two need to go in hand in hand. if the companies don't have any money they can't actually connect people. a lot is put on the distribution companies to make this happen, but they do -- they are quite determined and there is a lot of -- we're told that a lot of progress has been made on this. so we do expect most people in india who are not yet have access to electricity to get it through a grid connection, say, rather than a more decentralized option. >> great. now it's your chance to ask him a question. >> sure. >> i guess three basic ground rules. one, please wait for the microphone to get to you and then please identify yourse nam yourself, and your affiliation as well. >> thank you. tina lee from duke university, a fellow at duke energy initiative. my question is are there any
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work projects going on at iea looking at china's overall investment in coal power plants? thank you. >> we certainly look at it all the time in terms of just -- understand where it's going, we do look at chinese coal power plant investment and try to keep on top of that. we publish every year a world energy investment outlook and china is a significant part of the world energy investment so that is covered there. we also have -- working on some initiatives to look at flexibility of power plants because with renewables integration that's becoming a bigger issue. so that's an initiative that we're doing in partnership with the clean energy ministerial to look at the flexibility of thermal power plant operation in order to see what's the ability of an existing fleet of coal plants to integrate renewables.
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[ no audio ] >> yes, robert lanza from icf. thank you for coming. there is a large number of l & g export terminals in the permitting pipeline in the u.s. and i wanted to know how you considered those in your analysis of worldwide coal exports and l & g exports. thank you. >> good question. first of all, we actually produce a separate gas report where we look at the impact on -- that l & g exports. we see u.s., for example, exporting about 82 billion cubic meters by 2022. last year it was only 5. when we look at it -- when we look at gas versus coal in a particular country obviously we look at the relative economics. in most of the world gas is a more expensive way to make electricity and as a result it's often a policy -- it's either a
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policy push or domestic resource in the case of a place like malaysia which has really driven gas use there. when we look forward then we look at what the changes in government policy are and we look at the power demand. that's how we come up with our estimate estimates. >> thank you so much. my name is sergio martinez, i am a certain intern [ inaudible ]. i want to ask you a question about the renewables that you mentioned at the beginning in the energy matrix in the united kingdom and the u.s. do you anticipate any change in the coal market given the pressure on climate change commitments and the sustainable development goals in terms of renewables, how will that come into play in all of this? thank you. >> i think the best way to answer your question is to make reference to our world energy outlook which is more of a long-term look at the world
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energy markets. we have what we call our main scenario is our new policy scenario and broadly speaking we see coal demand remaining flat out to 2040, even with -- even with the commitments to meet the 2030 nationally defined contributions under the paris agreement. and the reason for that is that we in many countries -- not many -- in some countries nationally defined contributions includes an expansion of coal. so we actually overall and with other countries now committing to get out of coal, which we've incorporated here where we can, at least for power gen, we actually -- we actually still see -- we still see overall coal demand remaining roughly flat. now, we also look at a scenario where there's more aggressive action which we call our sustainable development scenario. so we assume a whole bunch of other policies are implemented to allow us to significantly reduce our c02 emissions by
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2040. in that case coal drops quite dramatically from current levels, probably back to levels you haven't seen since the 1970s, but that will take in our view quite strong policy action to change course. >> thank you. jonathan janice, securing america's future energy. there are vast differences as you know in coal quality and has the report taken that into account and thought about what the economic and environmental tradeoff would be in there was a substitution of north appalachian for, say, german or polish ilignite? >> that's a good question, i'm not sure if i can address that specific example, but i can give you an example where we've thought or considered it which is when we were looking at indian coal imports, there is an ability, again, the policy of
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the government is to decrease imports as much as they can. at the same time there is a lot of coastal coal-fired power plants which are relying on imported coal, specifically because of the kind of quality characteristics that you mentioned. so when we do the analysis and the supplies to the market report and other analysis we obviously have to take that into account. there is kind of a hard floor to how much you can reduce imports in that case. so with existing plant, you know, there are limitations as to what kind of coal you can use and we try to take that into account. >> bob pershi, i'm a consultant. how are things looking for met coal versus steam coal? >> well, actually globally met coal is flat out to 2022, but mentioned earlier, a places likened i can't, we have some in
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korea as well, we see some possibilities for increases. we have some offsetting decreases in places like china because of the economic transformation that's going on there. steam coal we actually -- i would say after this year's increase it's probably pretty flat out to 2022 as well. again, with the kind of regional differences i was talking about in the presentation, it's really -- it's -- it's really -- increases in some places offset by decreases in others. >> my name is richard and i'm a student at george washington university. you spoke about how coal demand is raising in the developing world as demand for energy he bands. you spoke about india which produces coal but a lot of energy demand is arising in africa, sub saharan africa and i'm curious if coal in your mind
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is a reliable energy source to these rural communities and how it can be brought there if it is and what other -- how could it be done to ensure that it's sustainable and beneficial to the communities in the long run? thank you. >> well, it's a complex question and something that we had actually issued a report about a couple months ago called -- our energy access report, which is a report affiliated with our world energy outlook. we looked at areas there where grid supply of electricity had not been -- people don't have access to electricity and we saw that a combination of policies, in some cases grid extension like we're probably going to see in india, but also other policies particularly with solar pv these days that now actually make it much more economical to expand access and connect more people to -- to get more people access to electricity.
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coal in certain countries in africa when they have the resource, of course, south africa you know very well is a big user of coal, is obviously an option for some of the countries and particularly when it's their own resource. i think you see in the big users of coal, whether it's -- whether it's china or india or the united states that obviously there is a preference when you have the resource, but the question of whether to go -- if you want to build a big power plant what technology do you use? coal price is rather competitive compared to l & g, for example, at today's rate. so that remains an option for some countries, but obviously the attraction is much stronger if they have domestic resources which can be developed. for example, we see in pakistan today, it's not in africa, i know, you see development there because there are coal mines that can be developed as well, as well as the imported coal that's going in.
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>> i was interested in in issue between l & g and coal particularly in southeast asia and south asia. i think when coal prices were really at their lowest you had a lot of decisions made by, you know, philippines, thailand, pakistan, bangladesh, et cetera, to develop coal plants. very much based on importing indonesian coal, which has been very low cost and proximate to these markets. i get the sense, though, that countries in the current environment of low l & g prices are also looking at that as an alternative in the future and i think that i'm not so sure that the projections of large growth are necessarily going to be borne out by the -- if gas
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prices continue to be low, not that there won't be, but it will vary from country to country. what's your sents of that in terms of the sustainability and also you mentioned the problems in indonesia because of -- in terms of both domestic consumption as well as the government's nonenforced policy of trying to cap coal exports. are there other options for these countries if indeed indonesia is not a reliable supplier in the future? >> well, there's certainly other coal exporting countries in the region. that's their first option if they feel some reason indonesia is not going to be a reliable supplier because looking at indonesian policy even they may turn to australia or other countries. in terms of the coal versus l & g, certainly our view -- our view although it's not true today if you look at the swap
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markets is l & g will be fairly inexpensive for the next few years because there is a lot of l & g coming online, much greater than we estimate the demand to be. as a result there will be a short-term opportunity, but we do think prices will need to move up over time in the l & g market. if you build an l & g facility we do think the surplus which will result in low prices will shift -- the prices of l & g will move up over time. so there's also a risk there if you go that route. a lot of countries when we deal with indonesia is also an association member and other countries in the region. we certainly -- we certainly counsel a diversity of sources and with the falling cost of renewables, you know, there's a lot more interest in including that in the mix and part of our work is actually talking to them about integration issues and how you deal with that because it may be something they are not -- you know, the utilities there might not be comfortable with. we do try to engage them on that
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and energy efficiency as well. >> hi. elizabeth losis from duke university. i'm wondering if you all track in this report or elsewhere potential shocks to the system that might create a significant divergent in the short and medium term from your forecasts and if so are you most concerned with natural disasters, political instability, technological innovations and shocks that could either put the coal up or down, is that something you all are keeping an eye on? >> first absolutely. it was international energy agency was created to deal with oil security and we were created due to an oil shock. energy security is central to the work we do and in the past it was oil, today it's much more natural gas i would say than
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coal, but we also look at the indirect impacts of, say, a shock on the gas side. for example, in recent months there has been this diplomatic issue between qatar and it's neighbors. if something were to take qatar out of the market, it's certainly something we do and do keep an eye on on behalf of our member governments. so then we also then ask ourselves, well, what if that happened. we do think about these other issues, what if something like that were to happen, what are the impacts on the other markets. but as you can see in the report we also look at -- we look at natural events, in the case of the metallurgical coal that's really what drove those price spikes and impressed us as i would say the relative fragility of the supply chain in met coal.
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we are looking at the past more than looking ahead in that case. >> thank you. this is a follow-up question on my first one. i'm wondering in terms of looking forward as you mentioned like china domestically is reducing the coal because of demand and the new technology. when you look at its investment overseas, especially through the one belt one road initiative do you see that they are going to maybe apply similar routes, are you tracking environmental regulations or how do you think this is going to affect the coal market in general in the southeast asia area? >> well, we do see china involved in coal plant investment, coal plant investment in other countries and also in technology transfer. they have built a lot of coal plants in the last decade or two so they have a lot of
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technology. and through one belt or one road or other financial initiatives they are supporting -- they are helping to finance certain types of coal investments. the expectation -- expectation certainly in our report is that kind of support will continue -- will continue. a lot of the technology of course for recent chinese coal plants are actually pretty good in terms of efficiency and in terms of -- in terms of emissions controls, conventional emissions control that you can have. >> and i was going to just quickly add, you know, it's much more from i guess these multilateral banks where the world is interested in seeing higher standards, you know, for multi-lateral institutions to be calling for higher standards as opposed to manufacturers voluntarily saying we want to sell you higher, you know, efficiency or higher performance, but, you know, i think there is a lot of discussion going on perhaps between aiib and the world bank,
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a lot of capacity building is under way, so it's something that i also, you know, follow pretty closely. so i guess we will stay tuned. any other questions? >> thank you very much. my name is audrey, i'm an independent consultant. the very last point on your slide up there that says coal use will be constrained without ccus and that you are working with the industry and policymakers to build momentum, what kind of momentum? are you saying for carbon price perhaps because ccus will make coal more expensive unless there is something to make it more economic to ccus. >> right. this is much more of a technology focus to get it implemented to try to find the
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right frame works to make sure -- make sure coal -- ccus can be more widely applied. and our argument has been that with all the coal out there, collagen operation out there, we're going to need -- we're going to need technologies like this to complement the other low carbon technologies, to significantly reduce emissions in the future. if we don't get it, if it turns out that we can't find a wide scale application of ccus which is economic compared to other low carbon technologies then that will severely constrain coal. not specifically a carbon price or that specific policy instrument, it's more of a technological focus but much more in terms of demonstration and implementation of the technology rather than the policy framework which might make that more attractive. >> let me ask you a couple more
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questions. we've talk about ccs, ccus a little bit but we haven't really talked about high efficiency low emissions technology. where do you see -- i mean, what sort of future do you think that particular genre of technology, you know, has going forward in the coal fleet? >> certainly there's a lot of interest among people who are building coal in these high efficiency low emissions technologies, but a lot of what we've seen are really still -- there's osaka cool gen, other cases like that which are really quite impressive, but the economics isn't dpelg compelling to just using a congestion nl super crit and other end of pipe controls. so that's been the issue is the
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economics really haven't been compelling to encourage widespread adoption of these kinds of technologies. if the feeling is you're still going to have to put on ccus or ccs on top of everything else, then that might really drive your economics that might make it completely uneconomic. so certainly not in this report we're not predicting much of it to happen. >> when i think of the u.s. landscape there is very little appetite for, you know, hele collateral when there is very little investment going into the thermal particularly coal-fired generation asset, period. as you said, if you are looking -- you have to have, i guess -- you have to know that your asset will stay running to be able to recuperate on the investment. it's a very challenging picture. i think especially in a lot of
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oecd economies where the parliament has been stagnant. that leads me to sort of a question about india. india is certainly the power demand is -- is growing coal consumption, a growing, but the fleet modernization i think there is potential for these higher efficiency or perhaps ccus as you mentioned from the podium, ccus, at the same time we're starting to hear through media sources there's starting to be a little bit of concern about the coal fast becoming a stranded asset. there are a lot of projects that are not completed. i don't know if you or your staff travel to india often to sort of get more of a micro level perspective on what's happening. is it because of the competitive from the renewables? is it more of a financial issue?
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is it -- what's -- yeah, what's behind this picture? >> well, there are a lot of things going on and india is a big country and it can be different things in different parts of the country, but certainly one of the overall factors is how quickly power demand has slowed, growth has slowed compared to a few years ago. so you have -- you've had collagen rating capacity double in india in six years from 2010, 2016. power demand hasn't really kept up with that growth and now you have renewables coming in on top of that. so as a result it's quite easy to see why you would have these cancellations and that the continued capacity additions in coal are going to be much slower over the next six years compared to the last six. >> could you put a number on how
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many new plants are being built with super critical generators? actually particularly in aceon. >> the answer is, no, i don't have the number handy. i would say most of them. >> and i also wanted to, i guess, talk a little more about, i guess, midstream transportation. we did talk a little bit about the chinese regarding the ultra super -- ultra super -- ultra high voltage transmission lines. is that a potential challenge in india as well -- not the challenge, per se. is that something that india will be looking at closely as they try to introduce more renewables and then rye to get the electricity to the demand center? >> well, that's an interesting question. i'm not sure what studies have
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been done on that. interesting, i saw a mad today of where the resources are and there tend to be on the western part of india and the coal tends to be on the east. so -- so where as the dynamics are different in china where the coal is relatively remote from the high population areas. so the opportunity of coal by wire or renewables by wire is greater. yes, certainly that's another technology that -- that the indians could look at. >> you had a question? >> i will ask another one. probably you've followed the debate about coal in the u.s. in terms of the issue of the market implications and whether market design should be adapted to value through capacity payments or other aspects, the caseload
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and field security issues. are you seeing that in other countries, too? i know we had discussions with germany when they were debating whether to put in place capacity payments for generators and is that something that you think makes sense to pursue in terms of the iea's advice and consultations with countries about their market designs? >> well, certainly -- well, first of all, a couple years ago, almost two years ago now we published a book called "repowering markets" where we actually looked at capacity market designs in different markets. of course, here in the u.s. in pjam which is a big area of interest right now cls capacity market. so it's not just -- the current issue and not just here in the u.s., i may give the example of australia, is not just that we originally looked at the
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renewables question as a question of how do we integrate these renewables into the system. that's an addition question, but the question that quickly follows is in most market designs you add extra generation into the system, the system responds by lowering the price and then those -- those -- some of those generators exit. so, in other words, there is a subtraction problem. if those generators have a certain reliable characteristics that you're losing compared to the new generation that's coming in. so in the case of australia, which has a relatively long, relatively narrow transmission system serving its national energy market they were finding in some places at the end of those -- one of the ends, south australia, that it was hard to keep the system reliable as gas plants in that area were closing. so as a consequence the government proposed about a couple months ago now a new
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requirement on the part of retailers to say in the case of australia we think we need to have inertia, which is the big rotating masses -- masses associated, and inertia helps you if a big plant goes off line or another upset, like lose a major transmission line, it helps recover the system automatically. it is like the word describes, something that's there. if you have nothing but wind and solar you don't have it -- you don't have that anymore. so they say we're going to put in a new rule that everybody who is acquiring power like retailers for their customers will have to have -- buy inertia from generators. so that helps keep the big -- these big generators in the marketplace. so that's one way of dealing with the -- trying to ensure reliability as you start to transition to more and more renewables in your power system. so that's an area of current interest of ours and something we will spend more time looking
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at next year. >> great. this was fantastic. i mean, you know, there are a lot of, i guess, technical questions, but i very much appreciated your sort of insights, also very thoughtful sort of, you know, observations on what's happening in the power market, certainly here, as well as in other key markets and also in general. the role that the government has been playing, but then also how there is still a lot of scope for cooperation with the private sector, for example, ccus, ccs. so thank you so much. i do hope that you will be back next year and share your, you know, additional insights in the next year, within the next 12 months. you know, we might -- we'll see. i mean, sort of a supply and demand dynamics may, you know, develop. but, again, thank you so much. please join me in thanking peter. [ applause ]
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house minority whip steny hoyer is our guest this week on news makers, he talks about what's ahead in congress this year, the outlook for democrats taking over the house in november's elections and the congress' relationship with president trump. >> i expect us to retake the house, the majority and i do so because i think the en viermtd is such is that the american people are looking for some stability, they are looking for some focus on the issues that they care about in terms of jobs, in terms of education, in terms of healthcare, in terms of
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the environment and in terms of our national security. i think they view democrats as being able to provide some stability to our country and very frankly also to a proper check and balance in our system when we see a president who is -- has trouble creating stability within the white house, much less within our government. so that i think -- i'm very positive. i think we are going to take back the house. we see all over the country a real enthusiasm and energy in the democratic base. we see a republican party that i think in many respects expects to lose control of the house of representatives, i don't think any of them would say that, but in private conversations with some of my republican colleagues and republican friends, they say, boy, you guys are going to take back the house. we have excellent candidates
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throughout the country, charlie cook says there are 91 districts in play. when we had two retirements this week of republicans, charlie cook who is one of the prognosticators, but a bipartisan and very concerned about the rightness of his judgments says that both of those districts that republicans are now retiring in are now going to lean democratic. we need to pick up 24 of those 91 seats. i think we will pick up more than that and we see not only members retiring in higher numbers on the republican side than we've seen in the past, but we've also seen in those districts a tremendous interest by democratic candidates of running and that means they think their neighbors and friends and their districts are prepared to vote democratic so they are enthusiastic about running. i think the 17 points i think is correct and it's historically
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high, the generic numbers democrats ahead of republicans by 17 points, i think that's amazing, but not necessarily surprising given the environment which has been created in the country. >> news makers with house minority whip steny hoyer sunday on news makers at 10:00 a.m. and 6:00 p.m. eastern. sunday on c-span's q & a, author and "wall street journal" contributor a.j. bame. >> roosevelt's funeral was saturday and sunday. truman was terrified to give the speech. he talks about it, the night before he laid in his bed and he pra id to god that he would not mess it up. he climbs the stairs, four stairs to the pulpit, looks out and sees his wife in the crowd and she's crying, she's crying because roosevelt is dead, the
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nation is in shock and she never wanted to be the first lady, she never wanted her husband to be president. she's frightened for him. mean while, he has to get up there and inspire confidence in his administration and the whole world. the whole world has to understand that america will continue. that the war will continue. >> q & a sunday night at 8:00 eastern on c-span. >> the council on competitiveness hosted its national competitiveness forum in washington last month to look at ways to boost productivity and innovation in the u.s. economy. up next, here on c-span 3, a conversation from the forum on advancements in aerospace, the energy sector, robotics and medicine. thanks for having my, my name is


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