tv Washington Journal Daryl Kimball Discusses North Koreas Nuclear Capability CSPAN August 14, 2017 8:03am-8:34am EDT
inequality in america. about five hours eased in sioux falls, south dakota, demonstrator caleb miller received a third-place prize of $750 for his documentary on the national debt. en won honorable mention for his documentary on marijuana. at the edison middle school, number of students one honorable mentions intuitive $50 per group. sarah one for her group on the national debt. sean one ford their documentary on terrorism. lauren and haley also received honorable mentions for the documentary on global warming. thank you to all the students took part in our 2017 studentcam are documentary. to watch any of the videos, go to studentcam.org. september 2018 starts
with the theme of the constitution and you. you are asked to create a video illustrating why the provision is important. washington journal continues. host: darrell campbell back at our desk, executive director of the armed services -- describe what your group does. independent nonprofit that does research on the world's most dangerous weapons, nuclear weapons primarily. we are privately funded by our members. with a website, arms control.org. host: the topic is what's happening in north korea. intelligence officials announcing they believe north korea has successfully miniaturized a nuclear warhead to the point where they can put it on a ballistic missile. your reactions to that news?
that was not surprising for us who've been tracking the nuclear program. have had them for about a decade very the first nuclear test was in 2006. they've conducted five. we know they've been working on warhead designs that can be carried on ballistic missiles. to do that you need to have a more compact warhead. for the missile to carry and deliver it. now they are making significant advances with the programs. they have had short medium-range ballistic missiles for some time. this past year they began testing longer-range rockets. they conducted in july, two tests of a much more capable missile that had intercontinental capabilities. they are making advances. i think some of these may be advances going faster than u.s. intelligence community thought
was possible. maybe because they're getting assistance. there is an important story in the new york times based on colleague from iiss.e i double s -- mike is a missile expert and it looks as though the engines for this new missile are probably derived from a russian design build a ukrainian factory. if that is true, the north koreans could be making much faster progress still if they have additional opportunities to test the long-range missile and if they conduct a six or seven nuclear test explosion. they have i think achieve not just the capability to launch a small number of nuclear warheads against south korea or even japan, but in the next year or two, i think we can assume -- we should believe they have the
capability to hit one or two or three or four targets in the continental u.s.. we have to avoid a conflict because its reach the point where north korea has the ability to hit back at the u.s. itself. host: is that story indicating the north korea may be getting help from russia? guest: this is a factory in ukraine that has worked on rockets for years. it was a part of the former soviet union's network of ballistic missile factories. the technology is russian based, but it's a ukrainian factory. upon somesed detective work by outside and i think it's a plausible fear -- thierry. it would explain the advances north koreans have made in last 12 months with these longer-range ballistic missiles. host: how sure are we the technology they are and aren't capable of. how do you go about your
research, what do you believe and not believe from the information that we see out there. the u.s. intelligence community, as good as it is has limited knowledge of north korea 's nuclear and missile capabilities. it's mainly observational. i'm sure there are some more details intelligence from intercepts. there are many questions even they have. what's important to realize, it's not so much exactly where they are with respect to warhead onenology, exactly how far of these missiles can fly, but what is important is the trajectory they are on. they are making rack -- rapid progress. with more ballistic missile tests, they will get to the point where they have a reliable capability and they will also have the capability to produce more bombs to put on those warheads. right now they have enough for aboutnd plutonium
two dozen warheads. it's not clear how many of those are assembled, but they are in the process of reconstituting their plutonium production to enriching uranium. they will over time be able to amass more bomb material to make more warheads. it's important we find a way to halt their progress with respect to ballistic missile testing, nuclear testing and material. that involves not just pressure, but diplomacy and engagement. that's the second part of the trump policy is not yet put into action. host: also want to invite viewers to join in. darrellstions for campbell of the arms control association. republicans, 202-748-8001, democrats 202-748-8000, independents 202-748-8002. , what can or should the trump administration be
doing at this point. guest: donald trump and his administration announced after a policy review, a policy of maximum pressure and engagement. the administration is gone about trying to better enforce sanctions are you on the books. they just got unanimous approval on the un security council 15-0 vote for the most strongest sanctions measured against north korea ever. this has the opportunity, this provides leverage if there are negotiations with north korea. north koreans and the americans of not spoken in a sustained serious way in a long, long time. the trunk administration says it is open to engagement. north korea must stop its malaise that ballistic missile testing before those talks begin. the north koreans have said we will talk to the u.s., we are willing to talk and even denuclearization, but we will not do so under threat. i think donald trump's recent
statements make it very difficult for north koreans to agree to those talks. we need to create the right atmosphere. we need to get talks going. there are some back channel discussions that go on between some senior state department officials and north koreans. the gears have not yet engaged and i think we have just a few weeks really to defuse tensions before some upcoming u.s. and south korean exercises begin and before north koreans might testing intermediate range missile in the waters around kuan which could create a showdown between the u.s. and north korea. host: jim is waiting in iowa. independent. i believe the north koreans have always talked tough like this for a long time. they are trying to play our
government for whatever they can get and see how far they can push us. publicly some rhetoric as a means to do a public kind of diplomacy. he was telling them we will not put up with your garbage. was showing we are strong and tough. that's how we will be. when negotiations to take place find the scenes, they will not be trying to take advantage of us. host: is that how you've read these statements, in negotiation tactic? that is one way to interpret it. the words that are chosen that were taken a little bit beyond what was necessary to communicate that if you attack us, we will respond and your regime will be gone. the anniversary day of the nagasaki bombing, the
u.s. bombing, the fire and fury words. that sends very mixed messages to the north koreans, who look at every word the u.s. officials say. it was not quite the same as what rex tillerson was saying a few days earlier. we do not intend to seek regime change. we are open to talks. but your behavior must end. the administration is suffering from a out of mixed messages. having donald trump should take cues from secretary of state and defense. tone down the language. make it clear to north korea that if they provoke us, we will respond. we are notmake clear intending to preemptively attack the north koreans. that is what they fear and that is what provoked miscalculation and leads to war. the secretaries with a co-byline. they say we replacing the failed
of patients with expedited the north korean threat with a new policy of strategic accountability. , it diplomacy is preferred is backed by military options. the u.s. alliances with south korea and japan are strong. john yang has consistently 's attemptoul --seoul for discussion. as a result of these dangers, south korea's newest government is moving forward with deployment of the defense system against the threat. we commence out to korea -- we commend south korea's choices. what you get from those words? guest: i haven't read the full editorial, but those statements are more measured. they are more useful. thehould remember that system is a theater missile defense system.
it has been put there to a sure south korea. there is no missile defense system that the u.s. can put into the region that is going to counter the many ballistic missiles the north korea has. this may be good against a small number, but it may -- it will oul be able to protect se from the 10,000 artillery rockets that north korea has just across the dmz. we can defend against certain north korean threats, or mitigate them, but overall, a war with north korea would be devastating on both sides, especially for north and south korea. host: line for democrats. thatr: it north korea said if they stop military exercises they would suspend nuclear program and negotiate? guest: did they stay -- host: did they state that? caller: i said did.
close to what the north koreans have been saying for a couple of years now. the north koreans have through very long time been concerned about the u.s. capabilities in the region, particularly palming overflights. it is why they singled out glom as a potential area for their medium-range ballistic missile. the u.s. has for well over a toade engaged in exercise test the ability. the north koreans see this is a prelude to invasion. they are very paranoid about regime change. they are concerned about their viability as a regime. they would like to see the u.s. cancel these exercises and they possibly suspend some ballistic missile testing and nuclear testing if we do so.
many military experts believe we could curtail these exercises in way that are not a provocative without decreasing readiness. something we should look for in second round talks. in particular, the overflights that have been done over the last several months. these are very worrisome to the north koreans. because these bombers to be the strike against north korea if there is some sort of conflict. they want those in particular to end. forod solution might be quiet diplomacy to take place. for the north koreans to agree not to's test any further missile tests or nuclear test. and in exchange, the u.s. will quietly end or curtail these bomber overflights.
that would ease tensions and open up a path for talks of a longer-term solution. host: missouri, line for democrats. caller: i can't see that china is afraid of north korea's nuclear development. it seems to me china is primarily -- we are asking them to help us and yet we recently gave china some of our latest -- taiwan some of our latest fighter planes to protect them against china. as i understand the seventh fleet is still between china and the debt and taiwan. it seems like we are not exactly treating china as though we are ready to give up something or cooperate with them. we have a complicated relationship with china. donald trump has to balance that. we have these disputes with
beijing about the status of taiwan and the south china sea territorial issues. he has got to balance that against our need to get china to be much more helpful with respect to enforcing international sanctions that are now in place. china's north korea part largest trading partner and china has a great deal of leverage over north korea's economy. worried aboutlso china. they don't like the chinese influence themselves. china's influence is limited with his particular version of the kim regime. we'll have to see whether the chinese enforce the current round of sanctions, which would cut off coal, iron and let exports from north korea to reimport for their cash flow. host: scott is waiting on line for independents. commenti want to make a
to this fellow. while everybody is concentrating on what trump is saying and all of that with nuclear weapons. literally the world is walking away from us. they are fed up with the united states bullying the world and we imbecileso act like and bully the rest of the world with nuclear war. downar in syria is dying and so the war machine of america is looking for another war to get into so they can keep making bombs. keep making the bullets. we are even talking about going into venezuela. to overthrowing democratically elected president down there because we don't like socialism or whatever it is they are doing down there. in the meantime, the rest of the world is looking at us and they are walking away.
they are going to china. all of them. stick around for our next segment, the washington journal, we will be talking with gideon rhodes. the entire next issue of foreign affairs magazine is dedicated to the issue of the trump administration and how u.s. allies are dealing with the trump administration. guest: the caller raising important point. the u.s. credibility is on the line in a number of ways. i think what is not wise about donald trump's recent statements is we are not -- we're not willing to back off some of these threats, american credibility is diminished. we do not want to provoke or create a military conflict because it would be devastating for both sides, especially for
the 28,000 u.s. soldiers there and tens of millions of koreans and japanese. needs to be very judicious about what it says and when it says it and we do not want to be making military threats every day of the week as was the case last week. we don't want to be making states that suggest that statement that suggest the u.s. is thinking of launching nuclear war. i think donald trump is simply not being disciplined in his message. i think some advisers understand these issues, but we need to see the administration exert some greater measure discipline and get the engagement part of the pressure and engagement policy on track. host: on twitter, steve says her group would strongly and flavor of the iran nuclear deal. explain how or if it makes us safer and can the same deal happen in north korea? time: we've spent a lot of
on the iran nuclear deal issue before. beenwo years, iran has abiding by the limits established by this agreement. they don't have the capacity to produce materials for nuclear bombs. the sites are being expected. -- inspected. can we have a similar ?rrangement for north korea it's a different situation. they are much further along than iran ever was with respect to the nuclear program. the iranians had a research program on nuclear weapons and were producing material for bombs. that has now ended. the north koreans are moving forward. i think what is common to both is we need to use pressure used with respect to iran, but we also need to engage in serious and is sustained way.
we need to work with our allies in the region to bring this policy in the to a fact. reporting the joint chiefs of staff chairman in seoul said the u.s. military option would be for when diplomatic and economic sanctions fail according to the south korean president office. he made the comments, the south korean president in a 50 minute meeting discussing the issues including provocation according to a media briefing that happened. your thoughts on the statements from the joint chiefs chairman. >> guest: it is important he has these conversations with the south koreans. they are on the front lines. the new president of south korea has made it clear that their interest is in a peaceful resolution to this conflict. there is no way south korea benefits from a military conflict. we have to consult our allies about virtually every move and
public statement. that is one of the things that is disturbing about president trump's comments. it took a south koreans by surprise and the chinese by surprise. it took some of his own cabinet by surprise. it wasn't the calibrated kind of statement insuring allies and making it clear that they've been putting forward. host: eli, republican. caller: the democrats calling in worried about trump getting us thatwar should remember 650 thousand american combat deaths over the last 100 years, 90% of them occurred under a democratic president watch. the teens are with north korea, they -- the danger with north , a nonstate face based actor would put that weapon on a cargo ship and park it in long beach harbor and killed tens of
thousands of americans. trump is doing the right thing. we need to stop this proliferation right now. or a lot americans will die. there is a threat north korea could export the technology. right now, they don't have an maydance and i think they be worried that if they do this, they might get caught and there may be consequences. north korean regime has been known to take some extreme risks. they assassinated a couple of individuals overseas using nerve agent. concern. long-term it's been a concern for a long time for a number of experts the north korea might share this technology. why is one of the reasons we need to address the issue now . i think republican and democratic presidents have failed to maintain consistent policy on this.
the north korea situation is gotten worse and we now have to deal with this in a much more serious and coordinated way. host: two northwest florida along the florida georgia line. for republicans. somer: what i see is that want themk the other dead but they don't see in california the burned buildings and riots? they only want to blame one president on all counts from the beginning. they are on his back. disrespect jeff sessions on today by yelling at him, raising your voice and we win. we need more respect and love. host: do you have a question about the tensions between the
u.s. and north korea? caller: the tensions there, north korea, my brother was in the army and they were essentially there. 70 andher is now 60 or the tensions are still there. this is bad. i'm sure trump is facing at the right way. daryl kimball on some of the history of the tensions. can you put into perspective the tensions we are seeing now. when was the last time the tensions were this high? guest: this is the most significant crisis we've seen in -- since the early 1990's when the north korea in the program to use plutonium was uncovered. the north koreans have and members of the nuclear nonproliferation treaty. they are legally obligated not to pursue nuclear weapons
development. in the early 1990's it was discovered they were producing attonium from a reactor their main complex. president bill clinton threatened military action at that time. language, butsame he dispatched a team to talk to the north koreans and they did work out a freeze of their plutonium production program that last for a year. the north koreans in 1998 tested a long-range ballistic missile. it failed, but it raised concerns because the only purpose for a long-range ballistic missile other than to carry an object to spaces to deliver aer -- is to nuclear warhead. he had in his hands a deal to expand upon the deal that
would've ended missile testing for quite a long time in the north koreans did not conduct them until about 2006. there have been previous efforts. the threat of military force and diplomacy with some success. the u.s. has not sustained this. george w. bush made another go at this. the north koreans were discovered to have a rainy and -- uranium to a uranium enrichment program that led the bush administration to pull out of this 1994 deal that bill clinton arranged. he went into talks with the north koreans. 2006,onducted tests in and he did get them to agree to a path of denuclearization of the korean peninsula that remains the goal for the north
koreans, south koreans, and our other allies, but we need to get back on track. being north koreans are much further down the road with her capabilities, missile and nuclear. we appreciate the information. if you want more information, it is at the arms control organization. we will continue with our foreign policy discussion in our next half hour. we will be talking with gideon rose, editor of "foreign affairs ," talking about their next "ssue of "foreign affairs, looking at the trump administration. and later, we will be talking about renovations to the white house. we will be right back. ♪ month, book tv on c-span two features an in-depth conversation with a nonfiction
author about their career. join a september 3 when our christopher -- eric metaxas. talk to maureen doubt. then the author of "the undoing project." in-depth, the first summer of the month. the first sunday of the month. that is an c-span2. tonight on "the communicators>" -- at the black hat conference in las vegas talking about cyber security and cyber threats with the ceo of net
square. chest but it is not easy to catch an organization -- >> it is not easy to patch and organization. we cannot keep reacting to attacks anymore. for traps.look we have to set traps. we have to create customized environments. we have to engage in a hunting. communicators" tonight on c-span two. >> "washington journal" continues. host: gideon rose, editor of "foreign affairs" magazine joins us now to talk about the trump administration. i wanted to start with your view on how the trip administration has handled the north korean problem over the f l