tv Washington Journal Nathan Gonzales CSPAN July 2, 2019 8:20pm-9:01pm EDT
"booktv" brings you senator tom cotton with a look at arlington national cemetery. tvc-span3, american history and a discussion about the 75th anniversary of d-day with author alex kershaw from the national d-day memorial in bedford, virginia. >> they gonzales is editor and gonzales is nathan an editor and publisher. 2020. look at the presidential candidates and some key senate races. nathan gonzales, thanks for being here. a couple days after the debates. a pole in a at second about who is ahead. just your take on those nights. who came out on top and who did not perform as well? >> we need to define winning in
a couple different ways. you can talk about who captured the conversation. i think senator kamala harris really captured the conversation . in some way i think she was one of the key winners. winning is to define who moves the most in the polls. what do the democratic primary voters think about those debates. we are just at the beginning edge of finding out what voters thought. there was at least one national poll that has been out. i would like to see some polls out of iowa and new hampshire because they are going to be very influential in this process. over the next few days that picture will become clear. and: harris and warren rise biden slides after the first democratic debate had surprisingly. after the debate nights jodey
and -- joe biden dropping 10%. kamala harris is up 9%. pete buttigieg is down a percent although we understand that his fundraising is actually. >> 24 million in a quarter. not bad. host: what are the guidelines for the next round of debates? at athink they are looking 2% threshold to get in which there are some republican -- stories about republicans trying to donate to marianne williamson to make sure she gets in the second debate that i think she might struggle to reach the polling threshold to get there. i think the field will shake up a little bit. i believe steve bullock is going to qualify for the second debate. see ak we will still crowd of folks and hopefully two more interesting nights. host: nathan gonzales is our guest. we welcome your comments.
(202) 748-8000 free democrats. for republicans. (202) 748-8002 independents and others. again what democrats have to do. what they have to overcome to defeat president trump in 2020. picturenk from a big perspective we always get into this debate about is at the base or the middle. i think a winning party in this country is you need both. the democratic base is going to be united and excited behind defeating president trump for a second term and then i think it's about voters in the middle. voters that are balancing a couple of different things. they may live -- not like the tweets the president sets out but they believe the economy is headed in the right direction and i expect democrats to talk a
lot about health care. int was key to their gains 2018. i think their ability to balance talking about issues versus just prosecuting a certain case against the president is going to be the task ahead of them. host: fair to say the president likely won't lose any of his core support from 2016. who are the people the democrats have to reach to beat him? try to reach those obama voters who flipped to president trump particularly in the upper midwest and into pennsylvania. to boostd also try their own turnout among democrats who may have taken the 2016 election for granted. they may have just assumed hillary clinton was going to win . now i think those democrats are on alert in a way that they weren't three years ago and that's why i expect democratic turnout to be high.
host: seven independent and democratic senators. >> at least for now. host: let's look at the 2020 races where senators are up for reelection's. let's look at the ones that are in the tossup category. has announced challengers already in her party. state speaker sarah gideon just announced last week. she's kind of the preferred candidate of the democratic establishment. there is another candidate who is running who announced earlier who finished third in the gubernatorial race. i expect gideon to be the democratic nominee. susan collins has proven herself as she can win tough races.
we are in an era of increased polarization. i don't think she can take her race for granted. the only two senators up for reelection in a state for -- that hillary clinton carried in 2016. that was the first time since we have been popularly electing our senators that the senate result in the presidential result matched in every state. holds that map should be concerning to senator collins and senator gardner. host: was it senator gardner's voted that alvin eyes to or ?nergized opposition in maine were $7.8 million -- once gideon gets the nomination she will be
the beneficiary of almost $4 million that came on the heels of the cavanagh vote. host: thom tillis of north carolina up for reelection. he has been very influential with the president. why the challenge? race14 the closest senate and i expect north carolina to continue to be competitive and close. he does have a primary challenge from a wealthy candidate named garland tucker. democrats are still sorting through their field. it looks like a former is stillr and veteran the front runner. that race is still evolving. at its core north carolina is a competitive place. our phoneill start calls in north carolina.
jim is on the republican line in wilmington, north carolina. >> i watched both of the democrat debates and i just have to tell you it reminded me of macarthur park melting in the dark. it might have been a beautiful cake at some point in time, by the time they put it was a hot wet mess. >> by the time we got to four hours it was a long slog. i think republicans were ecstatic about the issues that were coming up. the positions to the left that democrats were taking. they are going to use some of that footage in the general election depending on who the nominees are. i think it comes down to this 2020 election, what is the frame of the 2020 election. if this is about do you like the president or not i don't think the president is going to win.
if the election is about is it between capitalism and socialism or do you want to keep your private health insurance, that's a very different type of election and i think republicans have a much better chance if that's the frame voters are looking at. host: do you think thom tillis wins reelection next year? i have a love-hate relationship with thom tillis. he was right up to the edge of voting wrong on the emergency declaration and came around. he's always right in the middle and that's a good place to get hit by a car. from frank onar the democrat line. you are on with nathan gonzales. go ahead. caller: hello. i'm a democrat voter calling from tucson, arizona. i watched all the debates. i've been watching politics for a few years now.
the one year that i decided to leave and not vote for the democrat party was when president and i'm not blaming president obama is a good man, when he told me that it's a crime for me not to have health care and they decided to find me for not having health care. since then the democrat party is all about dictatorship, you're going to do what the government tells you to do and now they are adding a bigger magnet for the illegal immigrants to come to our country and it's unfair for the democrat party to try and help them people to make this treacherous trek across that border from their countries to hours and we've been helping them for years and their government has not changed their countries. think thedo you immigration issue will play for democrats? toi think it's too early tell. partially it depends on who the nominee ends up being.
example, bette o'rourke of texas has said there shouldn't be any wall. shouldn't be even some of the barriers that are there. i think that could be problematic. i think the white house and the president are emboldened a little bit by the immigration issue. the president believes that his hard line on immigration before was whitelections republicans were able to gain a couple of seats. i think that's driving some of the accuracy out of the white house. democrats would prefer to talk about health care than immigration. i think republicans are going to bring that into the conversation. host: are there places you think the president or his campaign think they can make inroads with? certainly people who didn't vote for trump last time.
>> the president's campaign manager has talked about expanding the map. going into places like new mexico. i guess it's possible. looking at the most recent election results there, republicans haven't done well except for having the governor. they don't have it anymore. it's possible to expand the map but i think the president and his job approval ratings have been pretty static. i'm not sure what's going to move it dramatically in one way or the other which gives them a narrow path to reelection. from plano, matt texas. c-span.thank you for i wanted to comment on the dynamic that's happening in texas because senator cornyn is a republican but depending on what happens between beddoe , thatke and julian castro
could easily become a tossup because republicans in the state are rightfully worried that they might lose texas. won it bytrump only nine points in 2016 and depending on, there's a lot of interest to see what happens between bento and julian because if one of them does not continue there's a president talk in that senate seat. i just want to see what nathan thinks about that. >> i do believe texas is becoming more competitive. we moved senator cornyn out of our solid republican category to
a likely republican category which is a more vulnerable place. i think it could get more competitive as it goes on. i have a little bit different opinion on congressman overwork or castro. there is a democratic race. housear ran a competitive race in 2018 and lost. in a staterds senator named royce wester are also looking at the race. i think someone like mj hagar might be a better contrast to senator cornyn. someone who is a political outsider and a veteran. i know that she has to build a network that can raise the money necessary to compete and congressman o'rourke has that established network. he also is now may be more of a political figure and less of a onshface then when he took senator cruz. i would like to see where this race ends up a year from now.
host: market is on our independent line in fort lauderdale. you for c-span. i appreciate hearing all the varying viewpoints. guest, we haven't really discussed the probability of outside election interference from foreign agents and foreign sources and such and this current administration's reaction to that. and in fact c-span is oferiencing and is a victim that right now. i don't know if you guys are aware of it or not. you just had a few calls ago from a used to be a democrat, i was a democrat all my life but now i changed to republican to vote for trump. patter downhe exactly that was republican patter and it wasn't the democratic party. it was the democrat party.
that sort of thing. in my zeal to hear opposite sides of the story, i'm calling on the independent line. i am a very left-leaning independent mainly because i think the democrats are pretty weak and standing up to republican hijinks. i frequent right-wing sites and it is going around on these sites, call c-span. call in on the republican line and say you are a former democrat and then say whatever you want because it doesn't cost them anything to call on the republican line. you the truth, we have been getting calls like that for 20 to 25 years from opposite parties. there is little we can do about it other than take the call and ask people to call on the line that most appropriately picks their political point of view. the website is inside
elections.com. you have the doug jones race in alabama. he's the one that took over jeff sessions seat and this is the reelection for the full term in alabama. what's going on there? >> part of doug jones dreams are coming true with roy moore entering the race. i think doug jones has an extremely difficult path to reelection. andst all of the baggage the stories surrounding roy moore he still almost won that race and we are going to have an entirely different level of in the 2017020 then special election. i think there will be at least 800,000 more voters in the 20 center race -- 2020 senate race. going tos is probably win alabama by 20 points. roy moore, there is going to be a crowded republican primary. roy moore is probably going to at least make the runoff.
we will see if republicans in d.c. can prevent him from being the nominee. i guess i would encourage c-span viewers to be open-minded whether it's frightening or encouraging that even if he is the republican nominee he could win the senate race. host: the president last time was very mixed in his support. could roy moore win without the president's support in 2020? it would be helpful. the president has a way of giving endorsements that are kind of have handed. we will see. just the president winning alabama will be helpful. bigill see whether the republican outside groups turn away from roy moore. they are using that kind of language but if the majority is on the line, if mitch mcconnell as majority leader is on the line are republicans going to turn away from the senate race? i'm skeptical.
host: the neighboring georgia, david purdue. what's the uncertainty? >> democrats are still sorting out the field. i don't think the recruitment has come as quickly and other opportunities. i think georgia is emerging as a competitive state. i'm not sure they have the candidate yet in the race that they would need to defeat senator purdue. there is still time. is in blackstone, maine on the democrats line. caller: that's massachusetts. host: blackstone, massachusetts. sorry about that. go ahead. caller: i'm calling because i think there's a bigger issue voting time.t simply because we have a man in office now who is slowly tearing our constitution apart. if you give this man for more years, he will try to be a
dictator. attacks, he uses the dictator playbook. he attacks our free press. it's fake news. now he controls the judicial system as much as he can. and he demonizes the people. the migrants. he has no concern for their welfare as human beings. president andthis i really fear for our country. one man is even talking about him having three terms. this is not what our constitution says. disses the constitution every chance he gets.
and that is a danger. so i hope people think about that when they vote. host: thanks susan. ofi think susan is the voice millions of democrats around the country and that's why i expect there to be, there was higher democratic turnout in the 2018 midterms then what we have seen in previous cycles. i think that 2020 because of oute stakes that you laid is going to be high. but also an increased focus on the u.s. senate. the house is a check to the presidency also winning at the state level. where so many laws are made and enacted and enforced and so susan isn't alone and that's why a lot of people see that the stakes are high in this election. int: carol is shepherdsville, kentucky on the independent line. caller: yes. hello. host: good morning. caller: good morning. how are you?
host: fine thank you. caller: i'm a descendent of james madison, zachary taylor. wasreat-grandmother catherine mary taylor. so naturally i have a few things to say. wondering about why anybody would want to vote socialism, you know, all these giveaways. they might as well give away the whole country if they are going to give away $1000 a month. that was mr. yang i believe. kamala harris. she's all for everything including reparations. and i really have a lot to say about all that. host: all right. appreciate your comment. four guaranteed predictions for 2020.
number one, record turnout. with people love trump or hate him. in and on highed alert. more people than normal are more likely to vote in 2020. a couple of other predictions for the next year. republicans have a new star. alexandria ocasio-cortez for they love to tweet about and talk about. and bernie is not going away quietly. bernie sanders and then the postdebate. what does he do next? senator sanders is getting squeezed a bit. one of the advantages he had in 2016 against their clinton was that it was a one-on-one battle. he was a stark contrast to clinton. antiestablishment contrast. now there are 10 or more democrats using the same language and the same message but they are different vehicles.
they are not elderly white men that are trying to deliver the same message that he is. i think that is squeezing him a bit. the reason why i think looking at that prediction is even in 2016 i remember being at the convention on tuesday when they were trying to wrap up the delegate counts. the nomination was all but over. holding onto those delegates and we are waiting to see when is he going to release them. now even if he's not on the cusp of winning the nomination he will still have some delegates that he has one throughout the process and depending on how the rest of the field checks out we could be waiting for him to ultimately decide what he wants to do with his democrats -- delegates and where he wants to point them. host: have you had a chance to get out to the any -- any of the democrat campaign events? >> no is the short answer. i'm conflicted sometimes on those events. you go to rallies and everyone
loves the candidate is -- that is there but is that a true picture of what's going on? thingses it can make murkier rather than clearer. talking 2020 elections. we hear from the nice next in north carolina. the'm calling because of earlier conversation that you had about north carolina. thom tillis will probably win because president trump did tweet out some support for him. the changing face of north carolina that is becoming more competitive as far as leaning more left, and that's true unfortunately it's true because of the exodus and i would like to hear his analysis on this.
the exodus of if you come to north carolina, you see a lot of d.c.,rk license plates, new jersey, pennsylvania. these people are fleeing and i don't understand why because they voted for these incredibly, they voted for raising their taxes and everything. and now they don't want to live with what they voted for. so now they are running to places like virginia and north carolina, south carolina. host: changing demographics in north carolina. >> that's part of it. the growing suburban areas in north carolina are impacting the composition and how the state votes. i'm glad you brought up the president's endorsement about senator tillis because i think that could end up cutting both ways. i think that will help the senator in the primary. i'm not sure the primary is going to amount to very much.
election,eral assuming the president wins north carolina again that endorsement could be positive. if the election takes a little bit of a turn in the president isn't looking strong in north carolina than being that closely connected to the president could end up coming back to hurt him. the president tweeted positively about the republican from arizona and the president one arizona in 2016 but there's no guarantee he's going to win in 2020. those endorsements might be good in the short term. longer term they might be more difficult to deal with. host: martha mcsally is on your inside elections tossup list for arizona. in novemberlost 2018 and the other seat she was appointed to senator mccain's seat. i'm not sure why we should give her an advantage in this one when she just lost the race and the other. host: who is her opponent?
>> mark kelly, a retired astronaut. husband to gabby giffords. i think this is going to be the marquee senate race of the cycle. an emerging swing state. i think the candidates are going to be present there and you have met sally and kelly and everything they bring to the table. like choosing between my children. there are lots of interesting senate races but i think arizona is going to get a lot of focus. the: hears oscar on democrat line in juncker valley, california. democrats know the can win the majority of the votes. it's the electoral college that takes the presidency in 2020. what states can swing that trump won to give a victory to democrats? secondly what states can swing
to give the senate a majority in 2020?nate for we are only five or six states between winning and losing as democrats. what are those five or six states that can swing to replace trump with the democrat and to give a majority in the senate? thank you. >> let's start with the presidential. we have the hypothetical democratic nominee at 269 electoral votes. of theuld be one short 270 necessary. that includes michigan and pennsylvania which the president one in 2016. won in 2016. they would need one of florida and north carolina or wisconsin. those are three that i think are going to be very competitive. were's other states that have as an initial advantage in
arizona and iowa. those could be in play for the democrats at the presidential level as well. is a pass there and i think until we know who the democratic nominee is it's kind of difficult to ultimately lay it down. those are the number of states the president won that i think are in play this time. democrats need a net gain of three or four seats for control. with the white house and the vice president being the tiebreaker. three would be enough for control. four would be a majority. if we calculate in alabama as a loss that means democrats probably need to win at least four and maybe five. that would make colorado, arizona, maine, north carolina and let's put iowa up there
would also georgia and texas. they would need four or five out of that combination of states in order to get control. host: you mentioned in one of your predictions for 2020 that the democrats would remain united. i want you to reconcile and explain what you mean with this reporting front page of the washington post this morning. democrats face growing pressure on racial issues. they write that an impassioned argument on -- has boiled to the surface in an increasingly muddled primary triggered by an electrifying debate encounter that has reverberated across the campaign for days. they are talking about the discussion between kamala harris and joe biden on that debate stage. >> i think the democratic presidential primary is going to get more bitter and more divisive before it gets united. i think because democrats realize the stakes are high that nomination is incredibly
valuable because of the precarious political situation the president is in so they are going to do everything they can to win that nomination. i thinkre's a nominee the democratic party is going to be united in making sure the president doesn't win a second term. they may not be in love with the democratic nominee but that common mission against the president is going to smooth over some of the things the democratic party is starting to go through. host: more united than going into 2016? points.few percentage democrats were more united in 2018. mid-90'sit to be coalition support from the democrats for the democratic nominee. host: karen joins us from weatherford, texas on the republican line.
you for having me. you are having a very interesting conversation this morning. i was raised democrat. my dad used to go lobby. he worked at bell. there's nohe told me such thing as an honest politician so really listen and pay attention to who you vote for. and i really don't see any democratic candidate right now that i would want to vote for. left or either too far unable to be strong enough. i think president trump has done mouth job he has a bad and keeps putting his foot in his mouth. if he would just hush once in a while. but he has done a good job and he does have my vote again. as far as beto o'rourke, i
happen to know an instance where he misled ted cruz when they were running opposite each other for governor. cruz was in washington but he couldn't leave because that was during the time that they the government shut down. havehey were supposed to a1 sick called, where they ask each other questions and stuff. anyway, beto o'rourke made other to have a rally in a town not far from me and they called me by phone to invite me to this rally. well, it was not that important of a rally and when cruz was able to come back and keep the prior apartment, beto o'rourke wouldn't.
i don't trust o'rourke. what issues he was standing on or what he believed inother than let everybody and tell him and ted cruz had their debate. will get a response. >> that was a criticism of his campaign, that it wasn't deep into the issues. he did kind of create movement. he created a campaign that people wanted to be a part of. to support anted democrat for quite some time but didn't have that vehicle. he lost by about three points which is the best a democrat has done in texas in a long time. when you were talking about the president i was reminded of a piece from scott jennings who is a cnn political commentator, republican commentator. he wrote a piece about the president's support and how sometimes it oils down to attitude and gratitude and that
there are republicans who do like the presidents attitude and how he treats democrats and how he treats the media but there are some republicans who don't like that part of the president but there is gratitude for two supreme court justices, a bevy of lower court judges that are in place now. that coalition together, president trump is the most popular republican among republican voters and it's not even close. that's not going to be enough to get him a second term. he has to get some independence along the way. host: if beto o'rourke drops out early how likely is it that he would run against john cornyn? >> it's tough to be inside a politician's head particularly after a second loss. if he doesn't win the nomination. i guess i'm doubtful that he would run for the senate again. he's young enough he could try to run for something down the line. i'm skeptical that he would
switch. host: hears andrew in new hampshire on the independent line. caller: i'm kind of wondering about, i know that president trump has a person running against him in the form of bill weld. i haven't heard anything about him in about a month or so. i'm wondering given from what i see on the television and what i've read most times when somebody runs against the president in their own party they tend to not succeed that they also damage the president's chances at succeeding at their campaign. i'm just kind of curious where that all sits right now. >> i believe governor weld is still in the race. right now he will get crushed. as i was saying with the previous caller, the president's job approval rating among republicans is consistently between 88% and 91% which is
just astronomical. whether it is weld or governor kasich or governor hogan of maryland who must be looking at the same numbers because the president, republicans like the president right now. for different reasons that a primary is just not going to go anywhere. campaignxpect weld's to reach the level or gain the traction that would potentially damage the president enough to make it a factor in the general election. things can change. if the president makes a decision. announcer 1: spend washington journal, live every day with news and policy issues that affect you. coming up, mike davis, founder and president of the article then family usa discusses efforts to include
medical bill transparency and the state of health care in the u.s.. center for growth and opportunity research director will talk about new research for how to improve the management of public land. be sure to watch washington journal, live at 7:00 eastern and stay morning. join the discussion. on wednesday, 2020 presidential candidate senator kamala harris will hold a town hall in iowa. c-span,ve at 6:45 on online, or listen live on the free c-span radio app. coming up, pete buttigieg, democratic presidential candidate and mayor addressed the rainbow coalition in chicago. then, the constitutional accountability center and heritage center on the supreme
court term. the deatha report on of jamal khashoggi. announcer 1: pete buttigieg, presidential candidate and mayor of south bend, indiana addressed the rainbow push coalition in chicago. he talked about a recent police shooting and a presidential -- his presidential campaign. >> good morning. thank you. thank you, reverend jackson for your leadership. thank you for the work of the rainbow push coalition and, yes, thank you for this morning, an opportunity certainly for me to become better educated not only about the challenges but about the extraordinary capacities of minority contractors in this area that reflect on the challenges and capacities for