tv IMF Managing Director at Wall Street Journal CEO Council Meeting CSPAN January 3, 2020 12:41am-1:00am EST
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>> she is the managing director of the international monetary fund speak at the annual ceo council meeting in washington, d.c. give us a primer on the u.s. economy talking about the international economy. kristalina georgieva is the managing director of the new chief of the imf. let's see what her prognosis is for markets outside the united states. [applause] >> happy to have you here. let's get right into it. we had an upbeat view of the us economy and complaints about the global economy. let's start with the u.s. despite everything we have seen a slowdown in us growth this year and a slump in manufacturing, decline in business investment. from your perch, what is your outlook for the us economy in the coming years? >> the us is in a good place. people in this room have contributed to that, the longest in history, expansion, lowest in the last 50 years. to see that wages, and low-paid workers out facing wage growth on average driven by productivity gains, very important to recognize but you are right that there are issues,
manufacturing and agriculture, what we see consumption and services being the drivers of that good growth. we see in the united states like every where prolonged periods of low interest rates, looking for more leverage, and in the household -- you see invulnerability. prolonged periods of low interest rates leading to more leverage. s, --in the household' households. >> you see this as something going forward? >> we see this as something to be mindful of, because we can't make a prediction there will never be a financial trend. what we see is more often than , financial institutions that means higher risk so we have to watch it. this is a liability.
we also see in the united states room to do more for the poorest americans. outside to larry talking about the next generation of policy measures. if this administration is to continue, it would be good to target where there could be a boost in the economy. and i would say last but not least, trade uncertainty. the u.s. can do better if there is less uncertainty in trade. just to give you the number, we being an institution that love s to wrestle with numbers. we have trade sessions costing the world economy $700 billion by next year. but more important than the number is the breakdown. only one third of this number comes from paris directly. >> really? >> yes.
63% comes from uncertainty. and 4% comes from a productivity loss, and our expectation is trade tensions are handled, we would see global -- impact on global value chains and more impact on productivity. so dealing with uncertainty would be really great in the us -- great for growth in the u.s. and elsewhere. >> are you seeing in 2020 continued slowdown in the us economy or stabilizing? >> our projection is 2.1% next year. it is 2.4% this year, so based on today's assessment, we see a little bit of slowdown next year, not by much. we still see very vibrant consumer demand driven by what we just described. and service.
so how would manufacturing be year if we have less trade uncertainty? we can expect a good number there. >> as we pull back the lens and ask the same question globally -- the imf in october lowered its forecast for global growth, to 3% this year. what are you seeing in 2020? do you see a rebound or continued slowing? >> for next year, we are projecting 3.4%. that is the rebound. but, there are also significant outside risks. it would come from economies particularly -- have been particularly slow this year. being less low next year or rebounding, is our countries like argentina, turkey is doing a little better. we are also recognizing that
there are a number of bright spots in the world. i really hope people here would pay attention to those. we have 40 countries that are growing 5% or more. >> where are the bright spots? the would start from country's doing really well, among them indonesia,. -- indonesia. it contributes to global growth 10%, as much because us contributes to global growth. we are a little -- there are a number of countries seeing in that people are not a pension to, but looking for the right investments, the way growth is 7%, 8%, 9% to reform their business environment. i just came from senegal.
in thatput senegal category. it is a tiny, tiny country. we do see two vulnerabilities in the world we have not seen in our october forecast. one is india slowing down more a little more than we anticipated. and two, unrest. clearly, people on the streets means economies are slowing down. this is happening in hong kong, in chile, colombia, lebanon. and whether this unrest is -- unrest momentum is sustained is a downside risk to that forecast. >> let's go to the dragon in the room, china, the second-largest economy. much of the global slowdown this year has been attributed to china's slowdown.
alone, its double digit growth years contributed to the global economy. do you see it stabilizing or slumping more? see china's global growth slowing down. we expect them to grow at 6.1%. it was 6.5% but on the lower end of the forecast. next year for the first time, we project china to grow 6%. 5.8%. it is partially because of the natural process of shifting from high-speed to high-quality growth. shifting to more domestic consumption of growth. it is partially due to trade tensions. numbers onook at the how trade tensions affect the world's economy, china has more
of that impact just because it is more export oriented and the economy of china, when there is a fork on the trade horizon, that means not good news for the numbers. but, china does have space to boost its economy. what we are recommending and what they are looking into his -- into is moderate action on the monetary policy side, stimulus that this time is not going to be infrastructure projects. this is what china used to do. boost infrastructure spending. now they are more oriented towards tax cuts as a measure to simulate -- like what you were saying about the u.s.. and china certainly has a lot of space to boost the service sector by opening up the financial sector. i was in china a week ago. all the conversations from president xi down to the heads
of import regulators were about china being determined to open financial services. very interested in the imf support to the regulatory agencies that are critical in that area. >> china has a debt issue and the leaders who are reluctant to engage in stimulus because they want to curb the growth of debt. >> they want tax cuts rather than directing investments. like in the past. like many in this low interest rate environment, they are recognizing one specific area they need to concentrate on all the smart banks -- small banks that are more vulnerable. they are taking actions in that direction and the price reform. what is happening the ways, because of uncertainty, which i think is now the new normal,
they are more reluctant than they were a year ago to more aggressively tackle reform. they are saying, what would happen about losing their jobs too rapidly? >> you mentioned india. do you think we will ever see india sort of taking on the role china played in recent years. -- in recent years? they look at india as the next remaining big economy that could go into a double digit growth. >> and they are right to do that because of the bright spots i talked about. few are large economies. indonesia is, but not many. the answer to your question is india has that potential. south asia overall, bangladesh, india, these are countries with the average age in the population of 27 years.
andk of advanced economies growth and this useful country. youthful country. they are mindful that they had to be more serious. they are at the moment looking into a compilation of measures. will they be the next china, double digit growth rates? >> a lot of hopes in this room. >> well, i think all we can do is but a very strong prayer and provide them with the best analytics to continue to make their perry is country. >> questions from the audience? -- their prayer come true. >> questions from the audience? >> you touched on africa and the two things we have seen in africa. one is corruption. the second is political
volatility. the molecules that move in different directions. again the population, you mentioned young people. backs of potential, but -- bags of potential, but doesn't seem to work. isthe point you just made finally sinking into a good number of african leaders, but i heard inaged by what i kenya and senegal and cote a recognition that unless they are serious about uprooting corruption, nevermind what else they do, they would hard time tracking investors. ultimately, we record is that -- recognize that if they make efforts to improve the environment and yet nothing happens, we may be disempowering
the more progressive leadership in africa. so what we are determined to do what the firm's is to work harder on providing objective intures of the conditions countries like africa and differentiate between those that are doing well. you make a very important point. it is a big continent with so many countries. those that are doing well and work with investment communities and people in this room to create longer-term growth boosting investments on the basis of good governments. >> other questions? right over here. >> we heard larry kudlow talk about interest rates for a long time, $250 trillion of debt in
the world. is the imf concerned about the? -- about that? >> at the annual meetings this year, we see the issue low for longer, low forever. the conclusion in the room was twofold. the first one is that we do need to appreciate low interest rates as a contributing factor to growth over the last years. if we did not have low interest rates, growth this year would have been half a percentage point lower. 2.5% is lingering in recession territory. that is not happening. but when it is prolonged, what happens is the search for yields -- financial institutions and
nonfinancial financial institutions are taking excessive risks. so sooner or later, that risk may come to bite us. we have to recognize that the underlying reason for low interest rates that larry talked about, it is this sleeping beauty called productivity. think rightly so, many of minute, weng wait a cannot possibly only contain the conversation to monetary policy. we have to talk about fiscal policy and structural reforms. we have to wake up that sleeping beauty and get the boost coming from productivity growth. at the firm, we are doing an analysis of the screen meetings. ne, the risk associated with prolonged periods of
interest rates. and number two, how can we expand the policy conversation way beyond monetary policy? >> we will have to leave it there. thank you so much for joining. washington journal, live day with news and policy issues that impact you. friday morning, we will talk about efforts to raise the minimum wage with the national employment law project. and the discussion of the skills gap and the future of work with a tech entrepreneur. watch washington journal live at 7:00 eastern friday morning. join the discussion. next, a look at the legacy of former president george herbert walker bush and his wife barbara. the former president's grandson, george p. bush,
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