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tv   Campaign 2022 Congressional Redistricting in Colorado and California  CSPAN  October 29, 2021 2:42am-3:05am EDT

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>> currently there about 320 4 million people living in the united states. that is according -- 324 million people living in the united states. there representing congress by 100 senators, and 430 five. that number has been set by law since 1929. with the new census figures out, which take into account population growth and geographical and demographic will changes, every 10 year congressional redistricting will start. the new districts will be in place for the 2022 midyear election. some states have lost members of congress, new york, pennsylvania, while some like texas and florida gained new members. to help us look into those numbers are dave wasserman of the cook political report.
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when you look at the census figures in the redistricting that is ahead, which political party you see as benefiting the most at this point? >> we are going to have to wait to find out. the census shows a country that is getting more diverse, more urban. 52% of americans count -- that goes to show that rural america is declining relative to america's cities and suburbs. on the surface, that is good news for democrats. they are the party doing better in cities and suburbs. but the caveat is that the countries politics haven't changed that much in the last 10 years. this added diversity, the growth of suburbs has not necessarily made the country more favorable to democrats. they won the white house by the same popular vote margin in 2020 that they did in 2012. the more important part of this
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is going to be how lines are drawn from state to state. republicans get to draw the maps in 20 states, totaling 187 districts. that is because state legislatures, for the most part are the ones that bear responsibility, compared to 75 districts in eight states that democrats control. republicans get to drop more than twice as may districts as democrats. there are also 10 states that use independent or bipartisan commissions that total 121 districts. there are six states with control split between the legislature of one and governor of the other. that adds up to 46 districts. there are six states that only have one district in the upcoming decade and do not need to divide their state into multiple seats. >> six states are gaining members of congress, texas, florida, north carolina, oregon, montana and colorado.
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seven states are losing a member, new york, pennsylvania, michigan, ohio, illinois and west virginia. when people move out of estate, like illinois or west virginia, two states have lost population, each of los a c, did they take politics with them, are they moving out of frustration? >> we increasingly hear of voters who are throwing their hands up in the air at the states becoming too inhospitable to their political lease and choosing to move elsewhere. it takes a lot of rigorous research to determine the size of that affect on how blue or rat -- blue or red the state becomes. what we know is that over time, as voters either choose to live in places their politically more comfortable or as independent voters begin to lean more toward which other -- whichever party
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is dominant because of an echo chamber of facts, whether social media or the dominant feeling in the community, we are seeing more geographic polarization. that plays into redistricting in a big way. if the state had in its boundaries every precinct was 50-50 between the parties, it would be impossible for partisans to gerrymander that state into heavily red or heavily blue districts. but imagine a state that has become heavily polarized between blue urban areas and read rural areas, it is easier than ever to compartmentalize democrats and republicans into districts where the outcomes are preordained. the fact of redistricting, that we cannot be sure which party is going to benefit, or could be awash, the net effect is we are
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going to see if competitive districts than there are now. >> dave, my comes to drawing maps, which matters more, geometry -- geography or demographics? >> they are inextricable -- inextricably linked. in a lot of states, what we have seen his minorities have accounted for most of the population growth on a net basis in the last 10 years. the rural districts in many states have lost population or grown slowly and will need to expand into suburban territory. however, republicans in a lot of places will try to pack democratic votes into a small number of districts to maximize republican opportunity elsewhere. democrats in many states are at a geographic disadvantage. an example would be wisconsin, where the state overall is evenly divided, a democratic
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votes are concentrated overwhelmingly in blue cities, madison and milwaukee. as a result, even if you draw a map that is fairly compact, and draw the district that is madison, draw the district is milwaukee, the other six districts would lean republican by a fair margin. even a partisan lined map could generate six republican districts, to democrats in even state. >> dave, when you look at it proposed congressional district map, were three things you look for immediately? >> multiple analysts can look at the same map and come to different conclusions. something that commission proposes to maximize competition , one party could see that as a partisan gerrymander. when i look at the map, what i
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am looking for is number one, how much bluer or writer are the seats getting versus how they performed today. number two, wherewith the incumbents fall in these maps. how will that affect how races shape up. one thing that surprises a lot of people, there is no constitutional requirement for a member or candidate to run in the district where they live. if someone gets drawn out of their congressional district, they can still opt to file for a different seat and run in a more favorable district. the third thing i look for is how does this map score on a compactness or partisan fairness metric. over the years, political scientists have come up with different metrics to evaluate how a plan can players -- how a
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plan compares to a random set of plans they computer would generate. that is an approach that has gained traction as a tool purports to evaluate whether a map treats parties fairly. this is a complex process with interlocking trade-offs and considerations. it is often confusing for people. the thing to keep in mind about redistricting is that political trends can overtake some of the best laid plans of cartographers over the course of a decade. >> western states are gaining a member of congress and the congressional redistricting battle. to -- two won by biden and one
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by trump. >> democrats have a four to one advantage in the delegation, they want to extend that to five to one. republicans want to draw additional competitive districts in the state, perhaps draw a map that is 2/6 democrat, when sixth republican and the other three competitive. ultimately, we cannot be sure how this fight will play out yet. it is possible that the state supreme court will have to step in and appoint a special panel to draw this map. colorado is a new commission state. it is gaining an eighth
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district. currently there are four democrats and three republicans in the delegation. because colorado has become a bluer state, democrats are hoping to expand their advantage to five to three. the commission has proposed a couple different drafts of maps, some of which would give republicans an opportunity to win up to four or five of the eight seats. it would include a couple of highly competitive districts. colorado is unique in that it does prioritize competitiveness as one of its criteria for drawing new maps. there are only a few other states that do that. democrats are fearful that if republicans have a good year in 2022, they could end up winning a majority of seats, even if they don't win doherty of colorado's votes -- don't win a majority of colorado's votes overall. >> ms. burkland, where is the
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population growth in colorado right now? >> the metro area. [indiscernible] >> just one thing on the surface , does that stay with the democrats or the republicans? >> as it appears right now, this new congressional map will slightly favor democrats. it would be a competitive seat. >> how is the process run in colorado? >> [indiscernible]
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>> bente birkeland is with colorado public radio. one of the anomalies here is that nearly 40 million people live in california. population growth over the last 10 years has been 5%. for the first time ever, they are losing congressional seat. how does that happen? >> that is true. california, although it has grown has not kept up with the national rate of population growth. it has declined from 53 to 52 seats for the first time since statehood. most of that population sluggishness has been concentrated in the los angeles area. los angeles county, only has
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enough people for about 13 seats -- california has a redistricting commission. members that include an even number of democrats and republicans and independents make up the rest. they have to hold hearings around the state. they cannot take into account partisanship, partisan data or consider where incumbents live in the process. it really is more of a pure reform over districting and has been hundred taken -- undertaken in other states with commissions. as a result, neither party can be sure whether the lines will advantage or disadvantage them. the key areas where watching our orange county, which is seen the most competitive house races, and the central valley of california where there has been
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a growing hispanic population. there will be a push to add several more minority opportunity districts. right now, california has a breakdown of 42 democrats and 11 republicans. because republicans picked up more seats in the last election cycle will --, they occupy a lot of the competitive territory. if some of those districts get more blue or some get more red, that could alter the party strategy for 2022. >> does the democratic dominated legislature or governor newsom have any role in this redistricting? >> they do not. that is one of the frustrations for democrats across the country. in a lot of the states that have passed commissions, democrats would otherwise control the process, if commissions did not have the authority. in california, virginia, colorado. these are blue states where it
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democrats held the redistricting plans, they could gerrymander these maps aggressively to counteract the republican-controlled states, such as texas, florida, georgia and north carolina. >> sameea kamal of cal matters, why is california losing his seat? >> redistricting aims to make sure that all areas are represented equally. we need to cut down the districts to make sure one does not have more of the -- >> geographically where does it look like that district is going to be cut? >> it is early to say with certainty. hypothetically, l.a. county has seen slower population growth compared to the rest of the state. population growth is one factor the commission considers, they will also look at demographics,
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topography and making sure any changes they make need to meet the voting at rights act requirements. the population sector is a big one. >> mentioned commission, is there an independent commission drawing the maps in california? >> yes, california is one of the few states the does have an independent commission. that was decided upon by california voters. the commission is makeup -- made up of 14 people, five republicans, five democrats and for people not affiliated with either party. the commission is made up of people from different backgrounds, you have community leaders and state employees, industry executives and the like. >> democrats have the super majority in both the assembly and the senate and the governorship, do they have a role in the redistricting? >> the point of the independent commission is to make sure it is
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not influenced by partisan interests. that is something that we touched upon in a recent article in cal matters, talk about everyone is allowed to get public input into the process to the commission. sometimes, some partisanship can creep into the public input. there are no rules that say you have to disclose all of your interest if you want to give an opinion. what level of trust is needed for the commission to make the best decision. >> sameea where you hearing from democrats and republicans as this process goes forward? >> i have been looking at some of the data, some of the public policy institute, we are seeing,
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there will be allowed the area that is unchanged, because the population likely stayed the same. in terms of -- it's still early to say. >> what is cal matters? >> cal matters is a california-based newsroom, we focus on politics and policy. >> 40 million people live in california, 53 current congressional districts, going down to 52. being decided by an independent commission, sameea kamal
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