tv Washington Journal Mark Zandi CSPAN May 31, 2022 1:20pm-1:35pm EDT
>> there are a lot of places to get political information, but only at c-span do you get it straight from the source. no matter where you are from or where you stand on the issues, c-span is america's network. unfiltered, unbiased, word for word. if it happens here or here or here or anywhere that matters, america is watching on c-span. powered by cable. we welcome back mark zandi, chief economist at moody's analytics. how worried should americans be right now about a possible recession and how soon could that scenario be upon us? guest: well, recession risks are high. i would put the odds beginning
in the next 12 months at one in three. and probably close to even odds over the next couple of years. so certainly cannot be dismissed. you know, obviously the problem is high inflation, painfully high inflation and the federal reserve is working very hard to raise interest rates quickly to slow growth and quell the inflation and in times past when we have been in this time of situation, recession often occurs. certainly cannot dismiss the possibility of a recession at this point. i will say on an optimistic note that the fundamentals of the economy feel very good to me and we can talk about that in greater detail if you would like. if we experience a recession i would expect it to be a more typical garden-variety modest recession, not that that will not be higher financial unemployment and a lot of pain, it will not be the very severe downturn that we experience when the pandemic hit or the great
recession hit back over a little bit of a decade ago. recession risks are high, but i do think that if we do sell one over the next year or two, it would be a more typical relatively mild downturn. host: what are the fundamentals? caller: most significantly and most obviously, american households are in good financial shape. they have done a marvelous job of getting their balance sheets in order. it means getting debt down, leading up to the downturn american households had a lot of debt and very sensitive to rising interest rates that that would be tied to the rising rates and people would have to pay out more of the income to servicing the debt. but since the financial crisis and the great recession, households have done a good job of getting the debt down and
so-called leverages. not is very low by historical standards and very important, households have locked-in interest rates. as rates declined and they got to record lows year ago, there were significant refinancing, they were refinancing their mortgages and locking in these low interest rates for 15 to 30 years. as rates rise they will not suffer the rates immediately. that is just one example of good fundamentals that would support the economy if we do experience a downturn. host: he has been on this program plenty of times in the past. if you want to join the conversation about the state of the u.s. economy, the recession concerns that are out there, phone lines are open, democrats, 202-748-8000. republicans, 202-748-8001. independents, 202-748-8002.
i want to return as viewers are calling in with the inflation issue, what is the normal way that one lowers inflation when it happens, and why is this inflation proving so persistent and tough to get down? caller: typically, it is about demand. the economy is strong because demand from consumers is strong and the federal reserve that is their job to slow demand growth by raising interest rates making it more costly for them to get a car loan and to get the cash
>> welcome, everyone. my name is michael anderson and i'm the board director here at the atlantic council. on behalf of the our center for strategy and security and for defense practice, i would like to welcome you to this exciting second installment of our 2022 series, a conversation with secretary christine wormuth on the