The development of a model to estimate 30 kt and 50 kt wind probabilities from tropical cyclone forecasts in the North Indian Ocean is described. The model is based on position forecast errors, which are used to determine the probability of a cyclone occupying a particular geographical position, and on wind profile errors. Wind profile errors consist of errors in the forecast maximum and errors in the forecast radius of 30 kt and 50 kt winds. The profile errors are used to estimate the probability of 30 kt and 50 kt winds occurring at a point, given that the topical cyclone occupies a particular position. These position and wind probability elements are combined by using an assumption of independence which was supported by correlation coefficients in an earlier work. The present model, which includes features of the earlier strike probability model and an Atlantic Ocean wind probability model, is tested on independent data. Test results illustrate good agreement between forecast probability and the frequency of occurrence of 30 kt and 50 kt winds.