DTIC ADA144785: Setting Hurricane Conditions of Readiness with High Confidence.

by: Defense Technical Information Center

Publication date: 1984-05-01

Topics: DTIC Archive, Kostyshack,G, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INC MONTEREY CA, *WEATHER FORECASTING, *HURRICANES, RATIOS, THREATS, PROBABILITY, WIND, COSTS, BENEFITS,

Collection: dticarchive; additional_collections

Language: English

A procedure for setting hurricane readiness conditions with a high degree of reliability is described. The methodology utilizes a large number of computer-simulated forecasts for actual hurricanes since 1899 that passed near Key West, FL or Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. Wind probabilities were computed from these forecasts assuming present-day official forecast error characteristics, and then compared to hindsight estimates of actual winds. These data were used to establish hurricane condition thresholds at desired levels of confidence as related to wind probability. Threshold values for 95% confidence are given for hurricane readiness conditions at Key West and Guantanamo Bay.