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tv   Conflict Zone - Guest Michael O Flaherty  Deutsche Welle  February 18, 2018 10:30am-11:01am CET

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syria question like. it's up to iran iran has been trying to change the ground rules mr chairman. what has happened in the region is that if i can show that you see this and some of you in on this and see it and you know yes. this is a brief. a brief description of the middle east as it looks right now i call it the red in the black like the french novel by stand up well the red is isis. the radical sunni is the black is iran and its offshoots the radical shiites as the red compresses as the red compresses. and it will be wiped out very soon from the map of the middle east iran
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is moving in and we have fought both types of militant islam. israel contributed mightily to. the battle against the battle against isis by giving unmatched militant military intelligence that has prevented dozens of terrorist attacks in dozens of countries and we are absolutely determined to prevent iran from creating a new base in the west i call it isis west obviously egypt is fighting it as well to prevent isis from shifting its base from. iraq and syria into the sinai or into somalia and to africa and other places this is one battle that we are fighting successfully the unfortunate thing is that as iran as isis compresses and iran moves in it's trying to establish this continuous amp are surrounding the middle east from the south. in yemen but also trying to create
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a land bridge iran iraq syria lebanon gaza this is obviously a very dangerous development for our region it is creating this new realignment of israel and arab states precisely because we all recognize they recognize that israel is no longer their enemy but their indispensable ally in fighting these twin forms of militant islam that threaten them as much as they threaten us specifically what iran is doing now is this and this is recently this is just in the aftermath of the. defeat of isis the territorial defeat of isis in syria and iraq iran is trying to colonize syria. it is trying to move military bases into syria to move its army fifteen hundred kilometers from iran to israel's backyard it wants to
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establish a naval bases in the mediterranean can you imagine a rain in submarines next to the six or off the coast of life and wants to establish shiite militia bases. bring roughly one hundred thousand fighters into syria and it wants to establish air bases and bring the aircraft fighter aircraft helicopters and the like right to our vicinity with the express goal of attacking us so we want is changing the ground rules in syria i've said we will not allow them to do that and i've backed our words with actions so far that has not progressed and mr us understands that if he invites iran in. then obviously he is. challenging us. to a different position than the one we've had during the. five to six years of the
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internal conflict in syria we have not involved ourselves at all in that conflict except for helping with humanitarian aid wounded civilians wounded children women we've helped thousands of them in israeli hospitals but we've not entered into any conflict there except preventing rainy and transport of dangerous weapons to hezbollah through syrian territory if mr us invites iran in militarily that changes our position so that's up to iran and to mr also then the second thing that iran is trying to do is to change the ground rules inside lebanon what it wants to do there is to. add to lebanon's to cause problems armory in addition to one hundred thirty thousand statistical rockets to precision guided munitions which change the. balance of power by having
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a game changing weapons that could hit any spot in israel with an accuracy of ten meters that's very very dangerous for a small country like israel so we're committed to prevent the two in other words what is changing is the wrong status quo iran is trying to change and start a school both in lebanon and. syria if they don't change or start a school then i think peace will be preserved or at least nonbelligerent will be preserved if they do change the school well we have i follow or rules by the early zionists who saw the problem of anti semitism brewing in europe and that's why they wanted to establish which was they said nip bad things in the bud stop them before they get big that's basically what our policy it's up to the wrong. prime minister we have time for maybe two more questions the next one is
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actually a direct follow on to what you have just said. read the question what is the view of the israeli government on the future of the chain c.p.i. a those of you who are not familiar with. technical talk this is the so-called iranian nuclear deal and most specifically why would the security of israel be more secure without the j c p o e than with the j c p a way question mark. i don't particularly care about the agreement. keeping it or mixing it. that is fixing it or an accident i want goal in mind to prevent iran from having nuclear weapons such a radical regime would be unrecognizable in its aggression once it has atomic bombs
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and the means to deliver them so you have to fix it whether you can do it within the context of the deal fine if you can't you should scrap it but here's what's wrong with what iran is doing first i mean to have nuclear weapons you need three things you need a gun you need a bullet and you need gun powder the gun are the ballistic missiles they're developing them outside the deal in contravention of u.n. security council resolutions they should be stop they should be slammed with the toughest crippling sanctions to prevent them from continuing the development of these weapons of these guns these delivery systems the second thing is a weapon. the casing of the bullet if you will. they may very well be hiding that i don't think it's covered affectively because they're known specs and there are inspections in the deal but you cannot inspect effectively military sites and what do you think iran is going to hide and i think they're doing in this realm or
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any other realm you don't go into military side so you can expect them to put things in military sites. the way to get around it is that the i.a.e.a. has not asked to go into military sites but if you don't go there and inspect them you know where it's got at what's going to happen there so i think you have to change inspection regime the third thing is the most important one it is this. within less than a decade iran effectively gets on the highway of producing. massive enrichment of uranium that's the gunpowder that's the toughest thing to make a nuclear weapon it is the most difficult thing to manufacture it requires big plants it requires a lot of precision engineering it's hard to do iran has been given. after the calendar passes free reign to affectively enriched uranium without limitation and to do research that prove that allows them to have what they say they'll have two
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hundred thousand centrifuges some of them forty times more advanced than the current generation of centrifuges this was allow them to produce a lot of fissile cores necessary for the production of that bullet that nuclear bullet and so the combination of ballistic missiles. lack of inspections and free and richmond down the line i think is very dangerous i think rather than just have iran's ability to rescind the limitations on its nuclear agreement happened by changing the calendar it should happen by a change in iran behavior this is the main thing i don't think you should have an automatic sunset clause in this deal i think it should be linked to a change in iran's behavior a ceasing of its aggression that is going through the window in the region. can that be done. by iranian can said i doubt it but i
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for one do not think that if these. conditions are put forward that iran will break away to the bomb i don't think that's going to happen i think that would be very foolish on their part to do so because they have now enough. they have only enough enrich material for one device. if they wait ten years which is the whole problem with the deal they'll have enough material for one hundred devices or two hundred four whole arsenal of nuclear weapons i could just break into in a very short time i think they'll be very careful if i have to guess what they'll do if the deal is not reapproved in washington i think they'll do nothing and countries of course will have to choose what they do should this be the case iran's economy is not big it's
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a little bigger than this really economy eighty million people we have a little more than eight but our economy is almost the same size so i guess people will have to choose whether they want to go with the iranian economy or with the. larger economy called the american economy i think this is i think it's time to stop them they're aggressive they're developing ballistic missiles they're not inspecting and they're going to have a free highway to massive enrichment this has to be changed if you do it within the agreement fine if you do it if you can't do it without the agreement scrap it but it's better to stop it now i thank you prime minister i wish we had more time because if we did i would invite john kerry as one of the architects of this deal to join as i said but we did we are running out of time i have a third question which i'd like to read to you is there it's
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a very simple question to john and i never had the opportunity to talk about a. third question is and i'm afraid is the last one is there a future for the two state solution or not a question like. here's my position i think the palestinians should have all the powers to govern themselves except the powers to threaten us so it means that they'll have control over their lives but we will have control over security and any peace or agreement. should there be one now the american governments american governments have steadily tried to facilitate such an agreement you mentioned john kerry he did this president clinton did this president obama and john kerry did this before president clinton did that before you remember of course the carter administration's role in camp david first of all i think no one can facilitated other than the united states. i think we should dispose dispose of any
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possibility there and always people will say but the u.s. is tilting this way or tilting that way and one can make that argument i never did i never chose not to engage with are american partners for that kind of excuse i think you have to. actually deliver it in a serious way and see if there are proposals that are put forward by the united states government that could help begin launching negotiations. the company ministrations been working on their plan for the last year i don't know if they're going to put it forward in the next weeks or months they haven't said that they will but they haven't said that the they won't they say they're working on it and they're committed to putting it forward i think the very least we should do is give it a shot let's look at it let's not throw it out the window before we even saw and i think this is the unfortunate and. i think and disappointing position of
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president abbas i think we should give it a chance see if we can enter into discussions based on this because i think that we owe our people this effort i myself have dealt with this over the years very seriously very conscientiously with great detail and sometimes of considerable ingenuity but i think we owe it to our people to give this a chance the other thing that i would say is that the fact that we have this newfound relationship with the arab countries something that mr chairman i would not have imagined in my lifetime it's. this is not what they call a spin this is real it's deep it's brought. it doesn't necessarily cross the threshold of a formal peace and i doubt that would happen until we get some formal progress with
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the palestinians so the two are linked but i think that the opportunity to bootstrap an agreement having progress with the arab countries in certain areas having progress with the palestinians in certain areas and just keep doing this i think this is more promising because of the arab component because of the strategic realignment that is taking place due to the causes that i've just described here there is something different happening and i think we should we should give this a chance so the response to your question is i don't categorize the agreement some will say it's less than a state it is a state because i want security to be continuously held in israel's hands and i'll tell you why the middle east is littered with failed states and you see that everywhere that you have. the main security authority removed what you have is the flow of militant islam either isis or iran or amounts to saying we don't want that
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we did this we went out of gaza we got iran through hamas we want out of lebanon we got iran through his bottle so we certainly are not going to do that. a third time but it is possible to have this peace which allows israel to maintain security and allows the palestinians to govern themselves and i think that we should let the americans put forward their proposal if they don't let's talk about other paths preferably direct ones but i think we should give this a chance. let me just briefly address the audience we have run into considerable overtime here the coffee break will start after the conclusion of this and then please be back in fifteen minutes at eleven o'clock because we will need to have a larger panel and we have than two other speeches speakers including the iranian
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foreign minister so we've just been listening to a question and answer session. with the israeli prime minister binyamin netanyahu who's been addressing munich security conference so let's get some instant reaction to his words from our chief political editor michaela couth now standing by for us in munich. a forceful speech a hardline speech from mr netanyahu give us an idea how it's going down in munich. all this today was a scathing condemnation of the iran nuclear deal we had john kerry the former u.s. secretary of state sitting in the audience that is one of his biggest diplomatic it sequence as he sees it himself forging that particular deal is not news to him that have been innocent you know is against this but basically he spent most of his speech warning of iran as a rising force in the region with israel very concerned of iran seeking
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a new power base in syria after that drone was shot down last week which the israelis didn't say was bringing the rain to night that it is one of the drones of the actually quite impressive the actually produced a piece of that shot down drone addressing iran's foreign minister zarif who was not in the room as you to speak it later. basically asking him to do you break do you recognize this you can take this home so that much for so affect everybody but what we just heard now was i would say almost a hot faucet pledged to the concert. of the two state solution that netanyahu has been increasingly ambiguous about in the past with pledges to that concept here quoting him as saying we should give it a shot but also with the clear condition that israel would maintain security control over any palestinian state and him stating as a reason that basically the middle east is littered with failed states now
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this particular condemnation of the iran nuclear agreement which is seen in europe as also a landmark agreement pointing towards the potential of resolving other conflicts just to mention the korean peninsula concerns with north korea which we are watching very closely what happens to this deal well this basically sends a shiver down the spine of european diplomats also democrats in the u.s. and the big question is how long the united states will maintain this deal. basically of elimination yow he is saying if security guarantees are possible within that deal that's fine let's keep it going but he has very big question marks and he would like to see it ended rather sooner than later for two very different perspectives just bearing in mind that the grand nuclear deal was it really has a as a cornerstone the so-called sunset clause that gives the world at least
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a couple of months time if there are warnings any kinds of alerts coming out of those inspections that iran might be working on a nuclear bomb to then take measures. to see out turn the reasoning really on its head saying well this really means that this is almost like a map towards a nuclear deal although there are this spectrum is in place so clearly. once again pointing towards this very large gap in understanding of how the conflict how the spread of ron's influence in the middle east can be. result peacefully ok mckayla many thanks for that snap reaction been human. speech of munich security conference the israeli prime minister. thank you very much. now our chief political editor with me in the studio middle east analyst shaunie rose on his shiny let some go through netanyahu speech what i want to ask you is what in your view were his
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key messages in what he's just been saying well we need to keep in mind i want to bring in something he country did not mention but he did mention many times saudi arabia he's talking about arab countries about how the relationship has warmed up his you know closer ties he said at the end with a q. and a part that he never imagined in his lifetime he will manage he will leave to see that day he never mentioned saudi arabia by its name he's smart enough to know that we've been too much trouble on saudi arabia on himself but of course this is this is something that he sees as a breakthrough he sees an opportunity to prove that there is a way with the muslim countries if we find the right countries you find the moderate sunni countries in opposed to iran which of course you run saudi arabia that's a very big rivalry we see right there and if that aspect to israel my enemy's enemy is my friend when we talk about saudi arabia so that's a key component in understanding the ten yahoo's view of the region and the future
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of the region and how can it be resolved he also ties the palestinian future or the statehood of the palestinians to that he understands of concessions with the palestinians are necessary in order to neutralize or or edge bands in any relations with those arab countries mentioned mr are led by saudi arabia but it's clear that this is for him a breakthrough in the in the gaels to t.g. . overview of the middle east you know let me just break that down again because it's such a complicated region of the world the way i understood binyamin not to. you know who he's accusing iran of quote devouring huge swathes of the middle east and he said that has brought arabs and israelis closer together than ever and it could be a path to peace yes he's saying yes so essentially he's saying that iran's greater assertiveness having had many international sanctions lifted on its economy has
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brought saudi arabia its big regional rival. to the into the into the arena in a much bigger way as well and that in turn has brought saudi arabia and other like minded arab countries closer to israel and where the potential for a peace agreement is sadly is all schools we also need to bring in the americans tromp the trumpet it particular is very close it's how daily via he it's a it's a deal it's a wedding you know that they are very much the matchmakers of you know they are very much close to the saudi arabia's and we know that tom's first visit to the middle east was into you know he's a leader he made it to saudi arabia so there's this old dunce with the legs that raise that up so for him that's that's a clear message you know he was sending a clear message of thompson clear message of how he sees saudi arabia's as a close partner and that whole also of course means that he supports israeli and i mean we know many things are we assume anything is happening backstage we don't know a lot of what is happening but it's clear that the american support for this is quite
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vital in order to make it happen so let me just sorry for interrupting but let me just ask you do you think there is anything in what netanyahu is saying that the chances. in a rather contradictory way or unexpected way the chances for peace iran actually in the middle east are actually better than for many many years well no i think you don't if you think that but he says first of all he says the only video he sees is the u.s. we already know mahmoud abbas following jerusalem announcement says it's never going to happen he does. even agrees to see any of the the american representatives pence was in israel you know it's not for the for the palestinians it's quite clear the u.s. mediation is off the table when it's and he always says the only mediators i see are americans that hear you go where do we go from here he calls the palestinians because it was let's give this plan a shot we don't know what that plan is we don't know when it's going to be
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submitted we don't know the details but it's clear that's for four nights and you know the american ally is the trump that's in yellow lines which is a close one is the one he's following we know that pelosi is a very far from that. the prime minister was just now in the west bank and he was approached by by abbas the palestinian president in the quest to become the mediator in this process so again when we don't even agree about who's going to mediate the talks how can we even agree on what will be the terms of the agreement i don't see it coming anytime soon johnny absolutely fascinating to listen to your analysis of the middle east shaunie result is that middle east analyst you've been watching special coverage here on news of the munich security conference in just over an hour will be crossing live to munich again to bring you the speech of iran's foreign minister mohammed job in the saudis and beyond that we will be continuing our special coverage all of the security conference throughout the day just a quick reminder of our top story for you this hour is ready prime minister binyamin
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netanyahu has made a passionate speech to the munich security conference calling iran the greatest threat to the world at the moment netanyahu said israel is committed to curbing ring influence in syria and if necessary will act against iran directly. you're watching to tell being used to stay with syria. i'm going to. come.
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chandler. did. this is the news live from berlin at the munich security conference a scathing condemnation all the wrong coming from instrumentals prime minister binyamin. netanyahu. sure if. you recognize that. the israeli prime minister confronting iran's foreign minister a drone they did night flying over israeli territory he warns iran not to test israel's result also on the program. south korea celebrates more gold in the will winter olympic.


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