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tv   Quadriga  Deutsche Welle  June 28, 2019 12:30pm-1:01pm CEST

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if you need to do you can. discover who. subscribe to the documentary on you tube. hello and welcome to quadriga hughes international talk show coming to you from berlin i'm brian columns there's been a seismic political shift in turkey where the opposition c.h.p. party has won the vote for mayor and turkey's biggest city and financial capital. this man in the mold of has called his victory
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a new beginning for the country one of his fellow party leaders says it is now time to end president carter was quote one man regime and build a democratic system days after the vote aired won him self promised to draw lessons from it saying he understood the messages given by the people. turkey is losing his grip that's our topic here on quadriga to talk about that i'm joined here in the studio by shot i also the mayor he works for g.w. turkish department and says a great moment for turkish democracy but the real struggle has only begun alan poser is a commentator for the daily belt he believes everyone has lost the trust of the educated leaps but he's far from finished and laura lalich obvious is an analyst for the turkish politics for the berlin based think tank german council on foreign relations she thinks quote the result of the local election since the full and all the. metropole. indicate
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a shift in political conditions in turkey. thanks to all of you for being here and thanks to our viewers from wherever you are as well or if we could start with you what's happening in turkey and what are the voters in istanbul saying right now well i think what we're seeing in the midst the elections not just stumble but also already in march is that the a.p. is losing its grip especially in the big cities in turkey the cities that you know it was they have large ones who play ssion the economic centers of turkey in istanbul especially oversea was you know really important for the opposition to win for for the a.k.p. obviously very hot for loss and i think what we see is that. position which is quite different factions of people actually could unite around this idea of saying you know kind of like we are united against the system for add
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one against this like one man. and at the same time we also see that you know supporters of the a.k.p. in the mayhap equalisation actually disappointed in the government and also themselves not turning out to vote as much as they did before maybe some shift that disappointment in the u.k. people might be an understatement what do you think triggered this result i think it has multiple factors over the. economy conditions has always been one of the dominant forces congress very big and. in turkey if we look at the breaking point when it when we're talking about the similar seismic shifts in the political environment in turkey over the past 50 years we always see the economy as one of the most important underlying causes of that so when. the public when the people on the street are having
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a problem with take bringing the bread home they are looking for alternatives like this course might be a good driving force or other political factors might be good good driving forces but at the end of the day kona makes. the way that people can make an earnings make the decision and i think one of the main reasons why people decided to jump off the ball to right now is because of the political economy situation in the country economics is so determined in a vote especially one like this for a city like istanbul for big cities allen when you look at this is it just the economics of the background to this vote or is it also everyone potentially losing his political instincts i mean he's the one who called busy for this rerun vote right and that was a huge mistake because the 1st time. his party lost i think by 13000 votes now they lost by. yeah if you thought
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707-070-0000 yes exactly i mean incredible and people you know put off the holidays to be there and to be able to vote or came back from their holidays or from from from wherever they were to vote against the wall so this is this is a huge huge huge miscalculation. and so people with but in spite of this if you look at the map of the the election map and you say that the c.h.p. is red you to red rim the part of the tourists you know it is me down there on tahlia and so on they're all there with the looking people educated people people have to do tourism are situated they voted against but the huge inside except for ancora is still power base i mean where the rural areas you know the poor parts of the country the religious parts of the country people where sunni religious.
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is very strong they still vote for the a.k.p. and less you can bridge that gap turks going to fall apart as it has so often before we're going to talk about bridging the gap and the divide coming up in the program i'd like to go back to laura and what you were saying about the k.p. there is talk right now of a split in the governing party in a.k.p. do you think that's a possibility or rooms have been going on for quite a while now that we have prominent figures than a.k.p. . tolo and. are considering forming their own movement opossums pissing away from the k.p. . and i think you know if that's the case if we will see that the election has meant that probably more likely. that they will see this as an opportunity to let kind of move forward with with such ambitions and there has been a you know kind of differences in opinion within the a.k.p. for quite a while and we've seen. much more criticism coming out of they k.p.
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itself do you think that is something you're the one struggling with right now keeping the party together i totally agree with this point of view because art on has already been losing. deep people that he started his own cozy with when he formed a k p back in the beginning of 2000 so the figures like. double told blunt and so on and so forth these figures were belonging to their cause at that cause was kind of actually bringing together the conservative masses with the center right leaning people in turkey and they keep it has always been a qualification off different center right forces or sometimes to an extreme right but those forces in turkey so it's based never presented a some sort of a political islam that is being depicted all the time and once that quality starts to shatter and i want to go back to the economy and economy what is one of the reasons why it was chatter. you might start seeing those movements coming within
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from within the party and if you if you add the fact that our dawn has managed to antagonize the people that he started with and he surrounded himself with a bunch of yes men over the past few years don he started losing his grip so it actually. the whole party is based on his charisma and nothing else because they are not producing in a sort of policies over the past 5 years ok so you're saying there is a possibility that he could lose his grip on power would that mean from what i'm hearing is there's a possibility that he could be replaced by a broader conservative coalition would that get a majority in the country i don't think so and i don't think he would lose his group within his own party but his own party eventually might lose its grip over the over the government so like you know if you go to another action sometime soon it's not going to happen before 2022 to at least on this there's an election called . done the a k p my. not be able to secure
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a majority within the parliament that's far ahead but i think we should focus on right now how his party will manage to survive this all this i think that it's experiencing right now those relate to the vote and the economy well there is a consensus right now that this vote was free and fair and as alan was pointing out it's also pointed out that there's a deep divide in turkish society between conservative voters mainly in the countryside and the more liberal voters in urban areas. i'm so excited the right person has one justice has one love and unity one for the people in istanbul have one. needed everything's great now i do not you know we will work for a brighter future together shoulder to shoulder and really i'm so happy that you're going to. change was necessary. people had enough of the incoming government.
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turn if you need some fresh blood new rhetoric and a new face i think this result is a reflection of that has a mind has an on going and i think people don't see the good things tie affair to one has done it all said our relatives came here from other cities just for today you know we're so disappointed they think. the government mustn't allow him to serve as mayor. ok we just heard one voter there saying the government should step in and overturn the popular vote it was a last soundbite we listen to how deep are the divisions between a k p voters and the opposition shot of i think the way that the government has been playing this whole blame game over the past 5 years because of the negative and negative things going on in the country that has a resonance with within the you know part of supporters within the masses but i think the president is no longer as valid as he used to be so of course there is
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this polarization of course there's the wide within the society and i think what a criminal that just for them to spout about it's a big discourse that discourse is based not polarization but having a comprehensive approach to trying to reach out to everyone and i think it turned out to be a good strategy because we're seeing that like that from a few 1000 walts we have hundreds of thousands of difference in just 3 weeks later that means that there's a huge shift from the k.p. for. and the people who voted for de k.p. candidates and then shifted to mumble so turkey is actually very tired off this polarized language that 8 elections in the country over the past 6 years can you imagine that almost one election including local elections on the referendums so people are tired of elections and you cannot do business when you're in an election environment where you're waiting for what's going to happen after the elections and
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as you are tired from that kind of fireman and as you're tired from that kind of a political division and polarization then you start shifting to a person who's giving you hope and him all the managed to actually gather the whole of so many people and i think it's going to be over time more successful as he will continue playing this game because they managed to find a good strategy and they are developing that and it's just the beginning for dumbass going to be a long and hard way to go and shell is the government fellow when you hear about this type of political strategy do you think it could be a winner to bring the country together. you know i really don't know you know enough about the c.h.p. in to to judge that but all i'm saying is after one anticipated this this is why he changed the system so we now have a presidential system if he was just you know prime minister or. like in like tourism a in britain you know he could you know he might be out tomorrow but as
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a president he's in also don't forget that you know the 100 if not thousands of journalists in jail of teaches people accused of being members of the un the sect and before that there are also people in jail who he together with then he got rid of out of the military and so on so he does i mean i really wouldn't underestimate the ones power he may have lost the mass of people in. and izmir but he has as long as the military is still behind him and he's purged the military as long as he's the president you know i the question is can the memorial and the c.h.p. in the opposition keep up this momentum across the country the real issues of the like in turkey potentially would shift the hands in a peaceful transform ation i think that should be the question that needs to be asked because as you said on your right and that the whole system is now structured
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in a way that keeps his grip over the country which is made it less stable in fact it is less stable pole tickly economy internationally it is less stable but at the same time as i was saying the whole system is actually kind of keeping him is in power. like like i was trying to say earlier turkey to the turkish government did not develop a viable policy a policy that a state needs to address to the needs of its population in the past 56 years so the whole system is based actually designed actually upon. keeping a personality and that is one of the weakest point but at the same time that is one of the strongest points off the opposition not to be not to be underestimated either i mean when we look at it and be but at the same time a house of cards it's a house of cards but we have to look at this base that pointed out is strongly
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behind the one i mean when you when you look at the numbers 45 percent of his them bowl voted against him i'm a little i mean that that's an important point and and for the candidates how do they view laura where they want the country headed this 45 percent in istanbul not in the conservative areas out in the countryside where do they want to see the country headed well i think. it's a you know stumble also has a very conservative area so i wouldn't kind of make this is think. the conservative courtly point. and i think so i think for most people there is still the belief in the president that out on can deliver. they there's a belief that you know. this is still the right direction even if it's not perfect but it's still the best option compared to the day happy. or other. possible position policies so i think obviously you know the support for k.p.
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isn't going to go away and i could say and i think a lot of people still think at the times with what he did develop the economy really well they look at you know the improvements i have been made. and so i think it's a question of you know kind of what do they see the future but also kind of who do they believe can deliver you know a solution to the problems and who's a better alternative you have an economic analysis here you think political islam is secondary to how the economy's going but what do the conservative voters what do what does the base for everyone want to see for the nation what are their interests what are their goals. in reference to my words earlier like the. k.p. has always been a quality of different forces within the society nothing necessarily coming from a very conservative background nor a political islam is world view so those center right forces have come together and the a.t.p. managed to deliver within the 1st decades what they were looking for they were looking for more representation they were looking for more opportunities in the
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clinic ways and we've seen this huge boom in the in the countryside in the not totally that new entrepreneurs came out new holdings for form new companies started so they k.p. managed to create its own kind of middle class. base at which people are enjoying the things that modern capitalism can deliver in their own way so this is still valid and i think one of the reasons why they the government part of it still has almost half of the support within the society is because they have to because they delivered that what it does same time they are failing more and more day by day to continue delivering that so that's why it might shift the poverty might shift ok let's talk about the possible power shift who is the man that millions of people in turkey are pinning their hopes on him oh let's find out. at grammy memorial addresses his supporters he presents
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a young and dynamic image his slogan is everything will be fine the 49 year old has managed to present himself as worldly and open yet conservative and religious to his style contrasts with the authoritarianism a president regift i have ever won. the central left candidate of the republican people's party managed to garner votes from many kurds and make a party supporters as well he presents himself as someone who wants to and can unite the people. there did this yet a bit about this is not a victory this is a new beginning. but i would like to say that as of tomorrow as mayor i will treat 16000000 people equally. the mayor's office in istanbul is said to be the key to the office of the presidency of turkey could pose
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a threat to everyone. what do you think can he pose a threat to the one can he bring the nation together behind his leadership. i think not alone is if he can form a coalition with with the liberal elements who supported the. part of the he must reach out to the mall religious parts of society then if you can do that great. agree with that i think that so far he has been playing the game rights and if he doesn't fail in his game and if he continues gathering the masses behind him get the support he might eventually a challenge the leadership in the country think laura's he ready for national politics i think i agree in that i think he has been saying that really well but now the question is can he actually keep that up because at the moment he's trying to unify the more conservative as well as the nationalist as well as the kaddish as well as the secular liberals so you know i think the question is can he keep keep
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that up what he has been doing right now. while jailing political opponents is one method the government has used as it sees it to guarantee national unity while it points to the country's failed coup the kurdish separatist movement and the ongoing violence in syria as threats to national unity at one point of the country's failed coup as the primary element there but his critics say he's using these very real challenges as excuses to crack down on people who do not share his vision of where turkey should go 16 of them are in court right now for what's known as the gaze a trial there some of the many thousands who've been jailed for their political leanings. the silly record in prison complex west of istanbul is said to be the biggest of its kind in europe the court rooms are mainly for political trials 16 representatives of turkey's civil society are in the dock lawyers architects and
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artists accused of planning and financing and attempt to oust heir to want. their protests began peacefully in 2013 they were primarily directed against plans to build on the site of gezi park in istanbul yet allegations of corruption and nepotism and president had to once government groups louder and louder. the more violence the police and state used against the demonstrators the more nearby residents supported the protest. demonstrations took place in other turkish cities as well people were killed and wounded when heir to want to ultimately had gazey park cleared in june 2013. back then heir to juan was already putting the blame on a terrorist conspiracy with financial backing from abroad while his supporters hailed him as a hero how stable is everyone's government now. when we talk about stability for the ed one government we also have to talk about the international picture turkey is having
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a lot of problems right now with the united states united states is threatening sanctions against turkey can area one shot afford to shift as he is right now towards russia buying the s. 400 missile system and risk his relations with the west i think this question has to answer is one of them is that has been playing sporadically this game by trying to align with the. going to of the west. get some reaction to it and playing into that in a way that he would get or the actual support that his looking for so it's kind of like a leverage game for him if i may put it that way so it has been tried in the past and it worked to an extent sometimes it doesn't so one answer is that if he keeps clinton if he keeps playing this game he might eventually lose all the support that's coming from the west so that's one thing but the other thing is that. he
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should not underestimate and i'm sure he doesn't. hate the fact that the boom the economy boom that turkey went through over the past 15 years was thanks to mostly foreign direct investment that came to from the west and that was mainly from the west that we were a company that is some sort of. important factors that turkey should consider at the moment because that money kind of dried out now ellen why would arab want to risk relations with the west at a time when he's experiencing so many domestic challenges we look at the vote in istanbul by buying the russian s 400 anti missile system well i'll tell you why because we let him down because we lost syria because when the west said that you know precondition we wanted to get rid of the regime in syria and we would do that by supporting the opposition out of one went for. fully for that game and demanded that assad be removed now he's weak the west lost to russia and iran who are
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proxies of china in syria now if i were the one i would be hedging my bets which is exactly what he's doing he's not sure who's going to be the dominant power in the region in 5 or 10 years because america seems disengaged and europe is busy chewing up itself so you know we know we need to get our act together if we want to one to be on our side it's really up to us laura we saw the trial of the suppression of opposition voices there's a number out there 840000 people 140000 people have been arrested are you worried about a crackdown domestically or further crackdown when you look at turkey today after this vote as a possible response to the c.h.p. is victory but i think the crackdown has been going on constant continuously. and i don't expect it to go down i don't expect it to die down in any way. just seen the start of the gezi trials. you know there was this thought that you know he might
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you know. all the might get. insulting. so i say i don't think that this is going to die down i don't think we're going to see that kind of peak in crackdowns all of them again but i definitely think that it's going to go down to what do you think i think i agree with her and at the same time i think this trial has a symbolic value because for many people in turkey including the government circles was when the downturn started for the government so like i was saying. the government did not produce a viable policy ok for turkey and we'll see if they'll come up with one now i'd like to thank all of our guests for coming in today thank you so very much and our viewers for joining us of course as well for me brian thomas and the entire quadriga team take care until next the.
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