tv To the point Deutsche Welle November 1, 2019 12:30pm-1:00pm CET
contractors. and investigative documentary goes to italy and china and looks behind the glamorous for signs of fashion houses for. luxury behind her starts nov 5th on t w. there's a growing sense that war torn syria is entering a new phase that could mean new opportunities but also new dangers well the situation on the ground changed dramatically when u.s. president donald trump made the unexpected decision to in large measure at least withdraw american forces from syria in doing so the americans abandon their erstwhile allies the kurds russia and turkey have stepped into the vacuum with blood in their putin and wretched tired bed one appearing to be the key players in the region it's certainly a volatile situation and we ask old faces new alliances who will win the battle for
syria. thanks very much for joining us here on the show and my panel is made up of 3 guests here they are beginning with christine held back a featured mideast analyst with a number of european publications she says with his plan for the northeast and syria putin has made both added one around us at the it's the kurds who are paying the price also with us dollars posner regular commentator for the berlin based daily developed who argues russia and iran have already won the struggle for syria now it's important for the west not to lose turkey on a warm welcome to to chart a as to me a form to w.'s turkish department he believes turkey's only came. maria narrow is
to constrain the perceived security threats and help us out remain in power. brokers who hold back about to begin with you and ask you i mean it's been a really torrid week in syria once again and i'd like to ask you sir if you would sort of medicare where we find ourselves now at the end of the torrid week and whether this is leading for the the cruelly push syrian people i mean the battle for syria is decided i would argue you know bashar al assad the syrian president won the war militarily with the help of bloody me putin and russia just militarily won the war he is regaining control of the last remaining regions which is to the west with military force with the support of the russian air force basically and the north east which she will go back to smoothly and by doing so destroying kurdish autonomy so it's decided to this extent and very important is the big guy who holds all the strings in the bank all industries pulling the
strings and he does so very cleverly because now he gave the winds to some extent what she wanted an area inside syria to resettle syrian refugees to control it to maybe build some kind of other turkish protectorate and giving the whole north east back to bashar assad is just lined out but the problem of letting important is the following he kept assad in power but he has not the financial means to stabilize this regime so this is why he needs something that looks like a political solution to make the west pay for reconstruction and to normalize relations with damascus so that's the big plan afoot you know how to get a political solution something that looks so to make everybody conciliate with that ok very fascinating insights to begin with. give us an idea of all the turkish people are saying about the latest developments about turkey having such a central presence now in syria. the situation in turkey is
quiet like there is only one voice what's going on in syria and that is pretty much consulate they did by the fact that the media is pretty much console they did under the influence of the government so. when the incursion started apart from the procurators party h.t.t.p. almost everybody in turkey was kind of line up behind ired on including the main opposition party including the voices that we were thinking that the would. challenge ireland in the future they were just all pro incursion and that is mostly b. because of the fact that this operation is being perceived as as a vital threat to turkey like threats that would. put turkish lives at risk so people kind of when the option after the army and said that we're all
supporting the incursion maybe in the long term not the political repercussions of it when it comes to the security on the border yes there was this huge consensus in the country which is very surprising considering the reactions coming from the other parts of the world to that to be concerns about the bashar al assad is now resurgent as we just heard from christine and i have already been clashes between took issue units and syrian regime units yeah while those clashes were mostly it's hard to support a militia units i and they are like just reporters and we don't know for a fact at the moment and those skirmishes could happen because it's a war zone and in those wars owns these things always happen it doesn't mean that the turkish army is fighting bashar al assad's army at the moment but i think what is going on in turkey at the moment on the political level as well on the societal level is that people are focusing on the short term. as of the operation rather
than the long term comes on we need to have a healthy environment to discuss all the aspects of these and i don't think it's being discussed widely at the moment in turkey because of the political atmosphere okey dokey i'll imposed a new stage in syria's recent history no question mark. well obviously the new stage in the history of the whole region because basically from what when the british with through in 48 till just recently america was the only name in the game it was the power broker that for all the you know the egyptian israeli reconciliation for most everything and now and after the and now the only name of the game is really new putin and maybe the people in iran. this is an incredibly sad geopolitical shift. and we have in the case of turkey a nato member. openly against the wishes of its partners to
align itself with with russia which we consider an adverse or e. . this is it's huge it's not just serious the whole region and the european sort of death very quickly to this fact that the u.s. are out of the game of the middle east and they are not even very much they don't have a lot of affects from the problems in the middle east contrary to europe you know all the all the consequences will be felt inside europe and as mr trump by true pointed out that the u.s. is 10000 kilometers far away and we are just neighbors so it's up to the europeans to think more. in a long term perspective and to formulate visions and interests in the region and how to put them forward and it is ok i know a lot of the attention this past week has inevitably been devoted to the death of. dungy the leader of the so-called islamic state apparently took his own life after being hunted down by u.s. special forces so what exactly buried him so important. in the end
all that was left of the world's most wanted terrorist was a gaping crater. self-appointed caliph of the islamic state terrorist group was no charismatic leader and compared to al qaeda leader osama bin laden who was. killed in afghanistan in 2011 by a u.s. military special operations unit. well the daddy locked in public image any more than made up for in brutality he bears responsibility for thousands of deaths torture and slave minute attacks by isis the world over. us president donald trump was unabashedly triumphant when he announced albert dottie's killing he died like a dog he died like a coward the world is now a much safer place. and security analysts have little doubt that isis has enough financial means and fighters to pose a continuing threat. as his death really made the world
a safer place. to me what's your answer to that question donald trump says the world is a safer place is it while in the short term it might appear to be so because isis has been already disorganized for the past few good months and. couldn't carry out the attacks that it used to and the difference the main difference between isis or and the organizations like al qaeda was that isis controlled a swath of territory for you know a few good years so in that sense i think. is a setback for isis in general but the ideology is there or the conditions at which people choose to join the ices and choose to fight against what they claim to be threats against islam and the rest are going to be there and it's not going to go
anywhere because the forces the conditions that create isis remains the same in the in the end of the day christiane you have been noting yes i completely agree with that you know the ground for extremist organization is very felt all over the region you know with respect to the economic perspectives but the sense of. humiliation you know not the opt in for political participation this is all conditions that create a filter high ground for any kind of extremist organization and isis has not disappeared even in syria we have almost on a daily level we have in the northeast we had attacks car bombs whatever they have just gone underground and they now use the chaos that was created by the turkish invasion you know to break out of these prisons to reorganize themselves and to us to kind of reorganize themselves and to recruit among the people that are there a lot of family members around there so they will they will start to be be another force and they don't they're not disappearing and i don't think that the world is a lot more safer now in the what about donald trump what's what's his position now
let me get to to you he's ordered this mission against baghdad that he's wallowed in the success of the mission does that mean that he has learned the error of his ways in the surely appearing to withdraw u.s. forces completely from syria no i think. that's an aberration i mean they had the opportunity they've been planning this for a long time for months and they and they carted out with panache had some of the u.s. special forces in to the people who helped them. every dead terrorist is a good terrorist but. the fact is that on the one hand he does this and on the other hand as been pointed out he pulls out of an area leaving. the kurds who are god ing thousands if not more of ice is terrorists in the lurch they're deserts in these camps of course because they have to fight or have to relieve the region and these terrorists are going to come back home not to hide states to europe the fact
is that donald trump has decided to cut his losses in the middle east he's decided we spent 5 trillion dollars there we've lost $7000.00 men we're going to go home and leave it to the rest of the world to sort it out he said he said oh these people have to fight it out it's like 2 kids in a school in a school ground you have to fight well it's not going to be like that it might look that way from washington but it's not going to be laid out for us because these isis terrorists are going to come home to us if if if russia of course the shots in the middle east we're going to see the consequences in myriad ways they're going to assert themselves more in europe later too and so on and so on and so on and we didn't even take responsibility for the isis fighters that have all nationalities right talking about $84.00 german isis fighters and the family members a 3rd of them is considered to be dangerous dangerous so we should have taken them before this is what the kurds asked us for this is what the trump asked us for and we still try to you know keep them away you know to and now they will come in and
in a regulated way which makes it even more dangerous americans got permission from the russians to use the air space to control to carry out the bug the mission what does not tell us about the bizarre and often unfathomable relationship between vladimir putin and donald trump at this point in time that when it comes to terrorism. they are ready to cooperate but it's very interesting to discuss where he was hiding he was hiding in the north and part of it live example life kilometers away from turkey turkey is supposed to control the area with 13 observation posts so what are they doing out of was a not very not i i don't get i mean i personally cannot speculate on that whether turkey had the intel that he was hiding over there or not they might have some intel about it but we should not forget the fact that for the government in turkey the private private priority at the moment is syrian democratic forces or have turkey causes why p.g. so isis has always been a threat to turkey it carried out attacks in turkey it killed so many people incurred in turkey as well but at the end of the day it's the white p.g.
that turkey is prioritizing its mission into so and it was folk who let all these foreign fighters pass through turkey to reach during during the war also says on the tape said the syrian opposition to take part in the in the northern syria ok but also speculation one thing is for sure developments in recent weeks have certainly played into the hands of blood in a potent as we see. turkish president rate chip to eat air to one needed a favor from russian president putin. turkey a nato partner found itself asking its old bold russia for permission to intervene militarily in northern syria. the images make plain the new balance of power in the region lattimer putin's russia is now the dominant peacekeeper in syria the agreement between putin and everyone gives a boost to syrian president bashar assad through him putin can secure his position in the region in return assad's getting nearly one 3rd of his territory back while
he stations troops along the turkish border in the north. after withdrawing its forces the united states has virtually no part left to play is the u.s. fading to a regional power while russia returns as a. world powers. always look to the other already let's just talk a little bit more about vladimir putin the report suggests that he's the new of the dominant player in the region i think that's what you said earlier if he is the dominant player in the region is that a good thing or about think it's a terrible thing of course i mean for one thing he doesn't have the means to back up the power he's got russia's economy the size of spain right they cannot control a world empire which they just falling into that into their lap due to the west and . i don't know not caring and so he
he can be what he wants to be in the end he's he's managed to to as a side but it's just the beginning of the complications further down the road there's no way that russia can impose the kind of peace the kind of thing that the pax americana once was excuse me and he is definitely not a peacekeeper i mean it was just that he is the only peace keeper and he was keeping peace inside syria everybody just intervening for his own interest and if you talk about russia you have to mention that in it lived during the last few months and years lots of medical places hospitals were attacked it's 54 hospital since april and we have a very very strong research by the new york times that in very detailed form proves that that was an attack on 4 hospitals within 12 hours by the russian air force so this is very crucial to understand how readily putin leads a war against civilians you know and it's not an anti terror war but if you just
brothers you were telling me here in the influence of law to me putin is baleful as you are making out why is turkey going so promiscuously to bed with flooding reported i think 30 has been pushed to the to do that in one way and 3 pushed by the west pushed by the nato and pushed by most importantly the united states. so whenever turkey wanted to get something out of the u.s. whether that be the patriot missile systems that was not approved by the obama administration that turkey had to go to russia knocked on the door and said we want as $44400.00 missile systems and it was only after that that the u.s. decided to put sanctions on turkey because it might potentially threaten the radar systems of $35.00 fighter jets that are coming up so in all cases turkey has been somehow pushed to the to the russians to be able to deal with its perceived security threats that's one thing and on another level turkey has used this double
game as a leverage over time it also used that during the cold war where it was aligned with nato alliance and soviets were the enemy but turkey sometimes was using that to get what you wanted and i are don has been playing this card for a good 20 years almost now and as like the context is so complicated right now in the ground like sometimes are going can i get what he wants sometimes put it can i get what he wants sometimes trump kind of get what he wants and i think they're just trying to find a way to maneuver in this making you have to go along in this in this puzzle and find a way to get what they want but the sad part is that it's not up to trump in a more it's not up to the u.s. president anymore so counterbalance the reactions coming from the from the u.s. itself so you've seen the resolutions on the decisions just passed over the past 2 days from the house of representatives in the u.s.
and they have the super majority to put sanctions on turkey so trump cannot be the gatekeeper to veto these decisions anymore so. don needs to find a way to call miss not only trump but also other u.s. representatives to be able to stop. huge sanctions coming up now because our own self his wealth is being under investigation in the us or will be i would argue that a certain chemistry between adeline and putting right because these are 2 autocrats very effectively pushing their own interests you know and if you remember it's 4 years ago that turkey would down a russian fighter jet and everybody was afraid of a new war and you had sanctions very strong reactions from moscow and then have a year later there were just you know 2 guys clapping that shows that ok let's work together again you know they're very pragmatic they're very quick in the decisions and this is what the west especially western europe liberal democracies cannot follow on you know looking very thoughtful and i'm wondering if i mean there are
a growing number of voices just come back to turkey saying that turkey should somehow be i mean if there's no there's no way that it can actually be done there's no mechanism in nature but somehow turkey should be ejected from nato i think would be the total wrong reaction i mean look you know you don't have to have to like mr out one who does nobody does but you know i mean he has many followers you know like some in the west i mean he's he's a pain but turkey is an indispensable ally it's a resilient state it's not something's going to fall apart like syria or other arab countries like iraq it's a resilient state it's been a bow walk against in the cold war in spite of double playing and so it's still crucial to solve every problem gas in the in the eastern mediterranean the brisk rise is the refugee crisis there's no way if we pushed too far we're going to
you know and now the one knows this and he torrence us with this but he's right he says ok i'll let all the syrians the 3000000 i've got i'll let them come to europe do you want that and he's right he's got us by the short hairs and and i think you have to recognize that and you have to try. and pulled back. into into the fold rather than pushing it into the russian camp but i think also we need to discuss it least like you know pay attention to the fact that these all developments are happening in the shadow of the mistake developments in the countries in respect so like for instance from the turkish perspective in turkey are the on was not having his best days just before the incursion he has been losing ground he's like former allies were turning against him than him to form a new party is the opposition was on the rise he lost so many municipalities and major cities in the local elections so iran was in
a kind of lonely position just before the incursion and you know what happened after they took the start of the incursion apart from the procurators party everybody line up lined up behind ira dawn and supported the encouraging including the main opposition party and we have a thing the foreign enemy to yet to consolidate his power already quintal date his father we have a refugee situation in 30 with over 3000000 syrian refugees and. the turkish population is no longer happy about the whole staying over 3000000 refugees they're turning like you know races at the acts on the rise in turkey and he needs to somehow find a way to divert attention not only that you would remember that when the incursion started one of the discourses was that we're going to resettle $1000000.00 syrian refugees in these in these safe zones which he said that we did in the west of the freights of the river after the last operation and now this time in the east of
it but it's not going to happen because of these old the old the agreement that is struck with the u.s. and russia so he needs to divert the attention and we can also discuss about the position in the us and i would love to do so many different directions we could go even though there's been a lot of ground that we've covered with i can see the. clock is ticking though and it's against us so i'm just wondering if i might announce the following question to each of you and you get a sort of a relatively short answer which outcome of the sort of the constellations the coalitions the alliances that that are in the offing in syria the bomb would be the best outcome for the long suffering syrian people kristie oh the most realistic one is not the one in the interest of the syrian people and so i lines are shifting in syria which is the very interesting part of it and the new shift will be that out of rule we conciliate with us not this is just happening and this is very clever by putting out the one with us yes and turkey was the country that mostly supported syrian opposition don't forget that the syrian uprising so now they will switch
because they will say from our perspective assad is the lesser of 2 evils we will rearrange all self and syrian troops along the border russian military police can even withdraw all putting this very happy normal responsibility there and this will be a major shift and the prize will be paid by syrian opposition or by syrian people that would long for something called freedom and dignity which is not there anymore so i would argue that the west should not fall into this trap of an international diplomatic solution which is not taking place because assad will just keep his power the way he did during the last decade jara history i 2nd the opinion and i think that will genuinely have to find a way to deal with a sudden it's already happening in his or a diligent to my zing future in syria and i agree with the argument that the lesser of 2 evils like you know instead of having or threatening turkey lets the over the because turkey or in the last minute things that it was trying to achieve in syria . it's a catastrophe is
a catastrophe for the primarily for the kurds secondly for all the rest of the syrians who wanted human dignity and thirdly the west which is lost any influence it might have to project those values that alone material interests so i'm afraid you know i'd like i'd like to predict some hope but i don't see any. there's a tunnel at the end of the life to. give us a little bit of hope you got tense or needs yes i mean we should we should focus on soon diaspora people living in here yes and stressing the fact that they cannot go back to us not syria to work with them here for a brighter future and some time in the future focused franks very much for your insight as always for a view to vary from being here on 2 very dear to the pointer we've been discussing old faces new alliances who will win the battle for syria thanks for being with us by by and shows.
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