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tv   Conflict Zone  Deutsche Welle  July 14, 2022 5:30am-6:00am CEST

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this carefully, don't know how the system you need to get going. he'll magic discover the world around you subscribe to d w documentary on youtube. or 18 months after the violence on capitol hill. it's clear that us democracy was in greater danger than previously believed. testimony to the january 6th committee described that craze. donald trump grappling with his own secret service, determined to lead his arm, supporters to congress and overturn joe biden's election victory. america's political system may only just have survived my guest this week from canada is
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david from former white house stuff in george w bush's administration. now writer and columnist for the atlantic magazine. he says the stakes were and still are frighteningly high. it's happening really to worry about. i can't, i wish i could give you more confidence this. and i mean, we do have the future of american democracy on the ballot. that's the number one ballad issue, last month for u. s. supreme court spoke divisions over 2 of the most contentious issues, abortion, and gun control. so as america's political fabric breaking point there, oh, the warning lights flashing, read. why is donald trump full of praise reputed and do the russians have a point when they refer to the iraq war and the cues, the west of hypocrisy, key questions this week on conflicts on, ah, david from welcome to complex zone. thank you. we're told that on january 6th,
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last year, a desperate donald trump arms flailing, sought to lead an armed mob to capitol hill in an effort to overturn an election, but he just lost. what would have happened if he'd succeeded? what you focus on the last action of the drama as if that were the whole story. but in fact, the incident of violence on january 6th, 2021 followed sequence of events that added up to a plan. that wasn't a great plan but wasn't completely bonkers. either what donald trump hoped to do was to create enough confusion about the election to take the election away from the legal election process. as we've had for the life of the constitution and throw the election into the court of last resort under the american constitutional system . the house of representatives, if he could bust up the process, get the election into the house. the house of representatives was not one person by
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one person by one person, but state by state, by state. and sister republicans had the majority of the state delegations, if he could throw the election into the house, he could somehow hold on to power. so there was a plan, and it wasn't, it wasn't hopeless. it wasn't a great plan, but it was not hopeless. and the violent, dramatic act represented his last desperate attempt to get a strict plan back on track. so looking back, how close did he get to his goal? would you say? i don't think he became very close to school of remaining president, but he became very close to the school of disrupting the constitutional process. and he succeeded in putting to an end the long tradition of peaceful alternation our united states. this was, this was a non peaceful transfer power, and it's a stain on american constitutional history forever. and it's a precedent as well. it's a precedent, and it is a warning. if we can see the warning, we can avoid the precedent. do you think jumbo,
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his family or any of his most senior aides will ever stand trial for plotting what amounted to sedition? i have no idea what will happen, but i think it is important that the president do face legal consequences. you know, there's a lot of argument about this. mean, i'd say some people say it would backfire some people say it would not. i don't think you can predict the political consequences. and when you can't predict, when you're dealing with imperfect information, just do the right thing. if it's not illegal to overthrow an election by violence, i don't know what easily when this country you think it's vital that there's a full independent report into exactly what happened january the 6th and the events that led up to it. do you think that will actually happen, isn't the problem that this committee, the january 6 committee could have a very short lifespan? and if the democrats lose the house in the senate, in the mid terms, the republicans will shut it all down one day. i think the committee's work will be finished before the democrats lose control of congress if they do. and i think
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certainly there is an instinct for the republican party to cover up. but it's also true that we can see in the pools movements of republicans away from donald trump just today, just before you and i spoke, there was the newport showed, a majority of people regard themselves as republicans now think donald trump was indeed lying in his big lie about the election outcome that's a big change, isn't it? it's, it's a sufficient change. it may be, it's still only a 55 percent of republican think he's wanting, but that's enough. all that is going to happen here and much understand the goal because it's not to be that what i mean. it would be nice if they were remorse, in sense and a commitment to a better way. but if you simply make it impossible for donald trump to be the republican nominee again, that's already progress. and we have a lot of we got a lot of toxins in the american political system to sweat out. but this is more than talks, and this is an imminent threat. and if he is knocked out of the political,
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we can begin to retrace steps back to normal political activity. he is a long way from being knocked out of the political process, though isn't true. i mean, you said specifically that he's going to run, but the assumption is a working assumption by many people is that he will, he's race enormous amount of money. he's got to name recognition and he's got one other motive, which is there is an informal policy in united states that if someone somebody is nominated for major office that the department of justice suspends any investigation of that person pending the election, they don't want to interfere in the election. and so if he does get the nomination, he buys himself some months where he can't be indicted. it's a gift, isn't it? as a gift to somebody who's the may have crooked intentions. i'm going to tell my theory about the way donald trump is run his life is that he's always been 36 hours ahead of the bailiffs, so he never has long term plans. he's just got a plan not to get arrested that week. how do you combat though the
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avalanche of lying and the seat that has swept in and captured the republican party during his tenure? have you come by the, i mean, these are loosely held beliefs that the republicans hold their unshakable articles of faith and their rallying cries for radical action and violence. sunday, how do you, how do you turn this back inside the republican party? nothing important is ever done with ease. of course, it's challenging. you do it by focusing on repeating the truth over and over and over again. and it makes a difference. you know, there is an internet joke or twitter joke in the early part of the trump presidency, or trump campaigns l o l. nothing matters because donald trump would say something outrageous and his support would not collapse. but i don't think that was true. i think the real story of the trump years was that everything mattered. it was just that there was a lot of everything. and so people relentlessly work to tell the truth, report,
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honestly, to uphold standards. there all kinds of ambiguous people, people who were not heroes but didn't go all the way to bill in the either. and they made a difference. everything mattered. it all adds up. look, american, but america just one country of many. it's just one democracy out of many, but it is so big and so consequential that what happens here as global implications . so when so on the rise and so polarized isn't it and, and so polarized. well, i think democracies generally are becoming more, more, more polarized. i think that's part of modern life for reasons that maybe go beyond the end of the show. i think it's something but the nature of the way modern democracy works. but here it is most intense. and of course, here we have systems that are not mediating our differences. and here we have 400000000 firearms. by the way, in a country of 33330000000 people. so when it does get polarized, they can get violent very fast. how did trump find so many enablers? so many defenders. so many liars and she threw to follow him. you wrote about the
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complicity and cowardice of people who should have kept polarizing figures in check . did you meet mitch mcconnell, the republican leader in the senate? there are, there are circles of people in the republican congress. there are the people in, in the world around donald trump. donald trump does have a few great gifts, and one of them is he's got this wolf like ability to smell weakness. if there's a corrupt, if there's corruption, if there's weakness, if there's the ability to bully, he can sense, that'd be and use it for his own purposes. and he also saw that there are some inherent weaknesses in the american political system that we had not suspected before. but he, he said, maybe in a sub rational way, where he's got the bullies instinct for the person to target. and he wasn't above threatening and intimidating people as best he could. and using pardons as a means of basically undermining investigations into those around him. you know,
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the pressure in the constitution, the president inherited the kind of kingly, pardon, power, that the british kings used to have. but in modern times, this power has been kind of regularized precedence before trump did not pardon people at whim. they were, they delegated it to a committee that made recommendations, and then presence would do pardons, typically in big batches toward the end of their career based on recommendations from committee under sometimes be some personal interest. but the idea of using the pardon power as a regular tool of politics to protect people who testify against you. that's one of donald trump's innovations. and so very dangerous innovation. and what we need to do, we need to get back to the idea. the pardons should be regularized and should be staff review federal cases and say, here's someone who looks like they are punished too heavily, or someone may be innocent or someone is reformed. and mister president, we recommend that you use hard power. his former national security adviser, john bolton said that obstruction of justice was a way of life for donald trump. fits in well with the description that you've given
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him. yeah, i mean, donald trump, before he became president, was the least bankable name and your real estate. i mean, no reputable person would do business with him. i must absolutely had to talk to people in the real estate industry. i mean, he might have a piece of property that it was indispensable, the land assembly, and then you had to do business with them. but made sure you want a lot of lawyers because he was not a reliable or trustworthy person. so once you get that person, the power to control the department of justice, they're going to use it and he did. how helpful is it that in the midst of all the political polarization that we've been talking about, you have a right wing dominated supreme court seemed determined to stop divisions on abortion. and loosen, at least as far as new york is concerned, already. inadequate controls on gun ownership. how help was that when the supreme court is proven to have very much an agenda of its own, it has been very unhelpful to donald trump on the particular things that that he wanted to do. that donald trump didn't,
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i think may not have understood quite the way the bargain he signed up forward. mitch mcconnell got mitch mcconnell judges, but they were mitch mcconnell judge, so they've delivered for republicans on as you say, agenda items, like abortion, like guns like regulation of the environment. but when donald trump turned to the court and said, i want you to protect my financial documents from waffle subpoenas, but the congress, the court said nothing doing your on your own. so this is one case where he didn't read the fine print and he got out maneuvered by mitch mcconnell on guns. you put the arguments time and again that people with guns are in fact less safe than those who don't have them. no one listening that do you foresee a time when people might listen and what do you think it needs to happen? what needs to happen to change people's orientation on this? i think it begins with the kinds of changes and attitude we had with things like drunk driving. the whole world is driven by these horrifying massacres, especially when it's actual and, and it's just,
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it's just heartbreaking. but day in day out, dozens of americans are killed or injured in accidents or negligible. p will be it will discharge and, and, and hurt someone they lot or father will hear a noise and go down stairs. if there's a house breaker and kill his own child on these things happen, i mean literally every day and the killings are dwarfed by the wounded. in these accidental cases, people don't aim very who are not intending to kill, so we don't aim. and so the gun fires near the person and we've been with lifelong disabilities and those thousands of cases of those. and i think americans need to wake up that gun in your house is not keeping your safe. it is a threat to the people you love. most get rid of it, get a dog instead. if you want to keep your house safe on abortion, your more optimistic than guns on you suggested in a piece last month that the new state law is on abortion. could collapse in the
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same way that support for prohibition collapsed in the 930. why do you think that republicans are at the state level? are massively overreaching that they every poll tells us that we have about a 6030 split on abortion. 60 percent of americans want to pretty broad abortion right. 30 percent of americans want to narrow abortion right. only a tiny minority want to see bush and banned under all circumstances. republicans are passing laws that are much more restrictive than public opinion, even in the conservative states. and they did it because they thought it was a free vote. the supreme court was, you know, because the 3 court would stop the law from going to affect. so don't get to mad at you. there's a way of demonstrating your commitment to your core followers. but now it's real. and now when you pass a law saying, no rape exception, no instruct exception, no exceptions for life of the health that even in conservative states are big cities, atlanta, houston, doubts, tampa, tampa, phoenix, and they're a republican leaning suburbs for women say, you know,
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i'm pretty conservative and i don't think abortion should be used as a form of birth control. it shouldn't be on demand, but no bush and ever, even if the mother's life in danger, are you joking? and republican parties are going, i think, what is going to happen badly over portion is going to move from being a battle between democrats and republicans to a battle within the republican party. where some republicans are going to say, other republicans. you've gone too far. we talked earlier about the possibility of term running for election. we're already seeing efforts by his support is to take control of election infrastructure in many states. how extensive is that in your view? it's a real world. it is a real worry and there's a because what donald trump did, the end was too clumsy and to gross for the american political system. that what other people have more shrewdly recognized, is that if you manipulate the system a little bit, you can't refuse to count votes once they've been cast. but it's not so difficult to stop the boats from being cast and the 1st place. and it's not too difficult to
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wait the boat, so some people's will count for more and other people's votes counts, count for less. and the american system has never been as represented as a parliamentary system is. but you can make it more equal as happened between about 960 and about 2005. or you can push the opposite direction as we've been doing since 2005 and now with turbo power since 2020. but it depends who's in control of the election infrastructure, isn't it at the beginning of june, at least $35.00 election denies were running for governor in 20 states. and in 6 states they were running for all 3 top state positions. should they win? how safe our elections going to be in america? it's a really to worry about. i can't, i wish i could give me more confidence about this. i mean, we do have the future of american democracy on the ballot. that's the number one ballad issue and it's hard for people because, you know, gas prices are so crazy and food prices are rising and your real fears about world peace because the russian aggression in ukraine,
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there's so much every day. bread and butter stuff to worry about. it's hard to remember that beyond all this are 1st concerned is the health of our democracy. and that's on the ballot too hard to remember. but in its biden's poll ratings continue to fall the way they have been jump may well not have to cheat too. when the next round, if suppose a ride, almost 2 thirds of registered voters, voters in the, in the democratic party, don't one biden, to run for a 2nd term. can be, can the democrats afford to ignore that message? well, that particular pull you decided, i think is less meaningful than it sounds that one asked, would you like biden, or would you like somebody else? and it's like me ask you what you like for dinner. would you like chicken or would you like something else that might be better than chicken? so i don't know. consequential. isn't it a present? yes. yes but, but it's a hyphen, you're offering people hypothetical unnamed unspecific alternative. and i think the questions. okay. if not, i'd and then who, and that becomes
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a real problem. but here's, here's, i think the way this plays out, the democrats are obviously heading into a very bumpy 2022 as incumbent parties are heading into bumpy elections all over the world. inflation is so real and so painful and the supply shocks are real. we are still unwinding the, the cobra disaster. but if republicans do well, then they have the job of not overreaching, not passing, that not tried to pass national abortion bands, not going crazy. the way they did in the middle 990. remember, the election of 1994 that swept the democrats out of power when president clinton was in charge or publicans, then went so far. so while the president quinton read one real election by campaigning against republican congress and history never repeats itself, but that potential is there. it'll take a lot of discipline by republican congress not to make themselves the issue with 2024. the stakes are enormously high for 2024, and they joe biden hinted at that himself when he told the senior diplomat senior
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diplomat recently, i certainly hope my presidency works out if it doesn't, i'm not sure we're going to have a country of things really that bad, while things are, it's ominous as, as we've been saying, the state of democracy is on the line. one thing that is also on line is look on the question of ukraine versus russia. the republican leadership is reasonably solid. mitch mcconnell is a true friend of ukraine. he that he visited and committed to the craniums at arms supplies would go through the senate. kevin mccarthy. the republican leader analysis is a much weaker and was effective leader than mitch mcconnell. but he to, it's been pretty good, but there is going to be an important caucus in the republican house of representatives group. that is anti ukraine. and the question after loading day in november 22 is how much power will those people have within the republican world? and a horse donald trump is no friend of ukraine and a great friend of russia, and some of the other republican candidates have kept very quiet. the likeliest
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alternative to donald trump is the governor, florida governor, just hand to the governor, just had this has not said a word, a supportive word. it gets you great about ukraine is not said anything against ukraine, but it's an incredible thing for someone who's obviously running for president to have kept so silent about that. he's struggling. one of the most crucial foreign policy lines we have. how do you read donald trump's praise for russia? calling put in a very savvy guy and saying this is genius as he was preparing to invade ukraine, same from mike pump. trump's former secretary of state, colin, put in a very talented statesman with lots of gifts. what do you think behind that? well, it might come pay us case. i think he would, he just was trapped and clumsy wording. pompeo has been robust in supportive of ukraine, as well as robust as you could while working for donald trump in donald trump's case. look, every, everybody needs a hero and donald trump found he has been fly to ripple. biden always says he has ukraine's back. you believe him?
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i think the ukraine, that it taken us a while there been some missteps. the violence, the whole democratic world has as rally to be great to crane, and this is more that can be done, especially economically, remember quite as a quite developed country ukraine at the same time as it is fighting a war, has to deliver pensions as operate hospital services has to keep children in school in the cities where the war is and a bandpass to deal with this vast refugee diaspora. all of that cost enormous amounts of money while they fight a fight in which we are all at. once we are all involved, russia dismisses criticism of its ukraine invasion by talking about western hypocrisy. look what they did in iraq, 20 years ago. they say, put, you know, the point doesn't have 100000 people died in iraq for a war based on 2 big lives didn't. but what kind of point is that, excuse me, when i fire this rocket into an apartment building, because back in 916, there was a battle on the some crudeness firing rockets right now. he's waging
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a war of aggression right now. and these kinds of excuses there are teenage debating points. they don't answer anything about the 2 to the people who are grieving their last loved ones. wives, children, husband in court yard apartment will just stop shooting rockets and stop trying to invade another country and seize its grain and or to make yourself rich. but the west can hardly claim the moral high ground can it when it's done, things like that, go to war on the false pretense in iraq on this is not we're not engaged here and some kind of accounting exercise for geisha and trying to stop a war of aggression by one great power, nuclear power against a neighbor that did nothing to offend. russia is engaged in inactive aggression and we're all rounding to protect the victims of russian aggression. you said the war cost a long shadow, isn't it? also a pretty shameful shadow in many ways, the iraq war, the iraq, the iraq war is a complicated story. because in that case,
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we are not united states and its allies, brickley, britain. we will go were to overthrow a democracy, went toward overthrow one of the most vicious dictators in the post, 945 history of the world. we were not successful in achieving a stable and outcome as we hoped. but i don't think anybody graphs that saddam hussein is gone, no one in iraq and no one outside iraq. and so we were in the issue. there is one we weren't successful in doing what we hope to do. but to suggest that there are some excuse for russia, but in its war of atrocity atrocity as a deliberate tactical war in ukraine. you know, they can invoke anything they want, but the fact is they are firing rockets at apartment buildings right now. you were one of george w bush's speech riders at the time. in fact, you correct what i missed the axis of evil phrase that he used in his 2002 state of the union speech. the speech touched on iraq, north korea, and iran, and said, states like these and that terrorist allies constitute an access of evil arming to
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threaten the peace of the world. in any of these cases, the price of indifference would be catastrophic. looking back, are you not troubled that, that speech that you worked on might have been used to, but just a war that was built on lies and intelligence that didn't exec false intelligence that people knew was false. since that speech, north korea has become a nuclear power and around is become on the verge of nuclear power. in the world is a much more dangerous place because of north korean nuclear weapons and for and gets nuclear weapons will be more dangerous place to get. so president bush, some of the american people and some of the world's attention to the danger of these regimes in case of around one was leading state sponsored terrorism, getting these dangerous weapons. i that all struck me as, as completely necessary to say. so i think president bushes warnings were timely, incorrect. i wish the iraq war had been more successful. i'm sorry,
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it was more success and no regrets about the lives that but just it. i think that everyone involved get read the information they had as well as they could. it's not a lie when you turn out to be mistaken about something. i think president bush sincere, i know you sincerely believe that iraq had weapons of mass destruction. he was wrong about that as, as others were as the see the time the see i is paris, the station chief bill. murray said there was a consistent effort to find intelligence that supported preconceived positions. and as i, as bad intelligence got to the leadership very quickly, other intelligence just didn't get anywhere before my head of britain, my 6 said the intelligence was being fixed around the policy. and that was a year before the invasion. i think there's a lot of truth that i think that people had a stereotype view of what was going on and they look for information that supported the view and disregard that information that didn't. that is, that is a real danger in, in any kind of decision. a one i was one of important lessons with iraq was you
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need to have always a team be you need have at the table. people saying ok, i know it looks a certain way, but what if we read this information in a different way? i think that those criticisms are completely correct david from it's been very good to have you on competing zone. thank you very much indeed. thank you very much. ah ah ah, with
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