tv Countdown to the Closing Bell FOX Business December 11, 2012 3:00pm-4:00pm EST
♪ liz: good afternoon, everybody. i am liz claman. this last hour of trading. this is "countdown to the closing bell." the santa claus rally, little bit early? the blue chip is up five days in a row. where is the money? on your screen. the repeat of yesterday with intel yet again the leader and then microsoft the fourth best performer on the dow jones industrial. these are the two biggest percentage gainers right now. it may have in your portfolio. lafayette wal-mart as well. the latte liger on the dow jones industrial. so what has the bulls in such a festive mood? maybe this progress or the appearance of some moves the fiscal cliff negotiations. what you see is what house
speaker john boehner said he is hopeful a deal will be reached, but also added the g.o.p. wants the white house to provide details on spending cuts. but in the white house wants the same thing from the g.o.p. but either way that is good enough for the market. we took off and we stayed to the upside. so far neither side has been specific on spending cuts so coming up in just one hour o ony 4:00 p.m. eastern, former treasury secretary paul o'neill says he has easiest way to cut spending. fox business exclusive and in this our whole host of leaders in business talking about what specific they want to see. in terms of individual standouts. apple right now about 2% to the upside. some excitement over the iphone 5. how is this for a order in china. brenda marshall says china unicom has more than 300,000 people on the waiting list. nicole petallides with talk
about this earlier, but that is enough to boost the stock. sales in china friday, can you imagine the lines? sec don't airlines is soaring. up nearly 6%. delta says they will buy 49% of virgin atlantic. the price tag more than $300 million. and arg runnin rounding out thep three. treasury department selling remaining stake in insurance provider that broke yesterday, but today the flow continues into aig stock effectively closing out the largest government bailout since the financial crisis hit in 2008. let's look forward, all that and the start of a two-day fed meeting. the traitors all over the place. your stock exchange, cme group and the nymex. looking at a day like this, we're up off of the highs because we have a higher 36 points on the dow but is a pretty decent day when there is still no real clarity in the
beltway, what is it that has people so positive? >> as you mentioned this is five updates for the first time since march. we're looking toward the fiscal cliff, possibly ben bernanke comes out and says more. it seems everyday we don't have a fiscal cliff deal we actually go higher in the stock market. i think we would go lower heading toward the deadline. the market looks strong, apple looks strong. $50 billion in revenue possible. we do look strong. coleman offers 1700 level. lot of activity in december. and they're expecting a huge move in the next week and a half. liz: no real fear in the market, so pretty significant blows around 15. bond yields are not doing anything exciting. do you look at that and say i am in?
or do you say the fear trade is over? >> always at the volatility index and that is one of the gauges a look at it daily basis. basically levels of the s&p 500 futures the highest since obama was elected presidency. we sold awfully hard, we got back and possibly took some stocks off. we're reversing a little bit from the upside, selling off a little bit. the fiscal cliff are the two words that will be mentioned the most. we have costco earnings tomorrow, we'll keep an eye on that one. liz: is anybody looking at the fed meeting? the announcement we're not doing anything it comes to cutting rates would probably the fourth quantity of easing. >> i cannot imagine we'll hear anything dramatically different from the fed difference i from e message would've gotten from the last couple of meetings. liz: he has the ear of the fed.
>> they can keep throwing liquidity at the system, and there is some signs of mild progress but the fact is for all the work they're doing, there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of positive results. the tape is obviously telling us there clearly has to be a deal on the fiscal cliff. i am not sure there are lots of folks i talk to who are believers. a lot of people continue to sit on the sidelines and watching the market work higher and are getting a little bit uncomfortable which were not so far on the sidelines. that is what makes the market. liz: i don't know if he does yos talk a lot about operation twist or seen the expiration of that, that is coming to the end. today you have some energy complex moving higher. natural gas not so much, but how closely tied our prices of
natural gas and gasoline into what happened as far as a fiscal cliff is concerned in how people feel about the discretionary income they have an in the monen their wallets? >> the fiscal cliff stuff, i am on the sidelines. we are in a range. if you look at the volatility, we are at the lowest points of the year right here. has not been this year since last year. but 21%. that tells the a lot of people are on the sidelines. look at the range we have been in. everybody got excited. nobody got excited about calls. you have to look at the volatility, index, as far as relationship between the natural gas. liz: is the trade to sell at 90, by at 80? >> absolutely. but easier said than done. seems to be going forward to the
end of the year, on the sidelines, see what happens with the fiscal cliff stuff. the frank.thing. a lot of those take place at the first of the year. it will be more expensive. having a lot of people on the sidelines awaiting to see what will happen. liz: they are switching it to frank-dodd. not dodd-frank. >> you'll all pay higher taxes. liz: thank you for joining us. what does a bowl look like in a bear costume and how quickly can he come out swinging? as far as we can remember he has been a bowl and equities especially with everybody else seems to be abandoning ship. for the first time in years you're putting on the bear suit. >> it does not fit well on me.
we've had this 1450 target all year. we are right near it now. we're just seeing more negatives in the near term. the fiscal cliff, even if they settle it, it will take some percentage of gdp. the worst case, two to three, maybe if they compromise in the middle. the meantime corporate all over the country it hit the pause button. hiring people, corporations, individuals, small businesses. we think the next story once we get through the fiscal cliff and breathe a sigh of relief is the economic numbers will come a little bit soft. liz: you have 30 billion in assets under management, we don't sit there paralyzed, do you? >> we have pulled ourselves into neutral and equities. telling people to hold your fire. we have made a lot of money this year. we're still long-term bulls.
liz: which is a decent level. you are right pretty much a couple more weeks to trade, but you are calling 1450 this year for the s&p. not too far from that at the moment. this is it for next year, what would get us there? >> reacceleration. liz: that is when you switch it. >> did we get a little soft in the first quarter with economic weakness. little disappointment. that is what i think you really want to be ready when people are starting to cry about recession, which adobe is going to happen, that is when you want to step in. liz: i want people to put their attention on the big board right now. we have been up more than 130 points, now we are up 60, square looking now at a loss. at least chopping half, still a nice healthy gain at the moment
but something is spooking the bulls. you may be right. but teach people how to invest around your double costume here. if you are bearish, what do you buy right now? >> near term we are in defensive. health care ihealth care in pard like in that area. we really like the farmers and the staples as a place to hang out. >> it still has a pretty good dividend on it. pfizer is still a relatively cheap stock as people are worried about the pipeline, etc. but actually think it is a healthy company that has been undervalued for some time. liz: once you're out of the bear suit, what are you going to buy? >> then we will buy supercold as the economic news gets a lot
better. i want to own consumer supercold, industrials in particular would like. but even spread out into places like germany, china, emerging market that we have been buying the last couple of months. liz: chin steve has a china plae don't want to miss. 30 billion in assets under management. he is working his money, trust us. the closing belllin 50 minutes. a fall off the fiscal cliff will derail the programs helping the hosing recover. for the homebuilders worried? toll brothers is the 800-pound gorilla, they would know. a fox business exclusive with dogeared leaflets which tell you if the recovery in housing is here to stay and it matters to a whole host of stocks and what the fiscal fall could do to his business. only here on fbn.
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nicole: you talk about jobs for all americans, studies and fda approval, this is what these guys do. three stocks were focusing on, names hitting all-time highs today. if you're a shareholder and you have some sort of a medical or buying fund coming might be involved in some of these without even knowing it. these are some names we continue to focus on. i was looking up celgene just now, i was looking at celgene where they're working on late stage study moving toward fda approval for a particular drug to treat blood cancer. these are the kind of things that continue to evolved. these three names are hitting all-time highs. liz: love it, thank you, nicole. housing clearly in a recovery in a lot of the housing stocks at least at a certain point have
hit new highs. all you have to do is look at recent data points in terms of sales of new homes, new orders, signed contracts. actually prices in many parts of the country. will it last? after all we have been fooled a couple times before but now you have the fiscal cliff. hanging over this entire sector. toll brothers ceo joining me now in a fox business exclusive from pennsylvania. i am so glad you are here because we could very easily say house business. but i'm assuming business is looking a lot better. my question to you is what is the number one indicator to you that your business is actually on a sustainable turnaround and we could be fooled again. speaspeaker they begin now untie are near the fiscal cliff.
mortgage rates three and a quarter percent. buyers have been on the sidelines for five years and anxiously been waiting for better news, more consumer confidence to come back out. we had a great spring selling season. now we are selling into the winter. it all feels good. liz: that doesn't usually happen with this much muscle. are there any log jams, or our would-be buyers getting the credit they need to buy the homes? >> our clients can get mortgages. our buyers tend to put a lot more money down. they mortgage a lot less, very high credit ratings. we are not seeing that problem at all. lower price point a little bit of a problem but it is getting better. liz: when you look at parts of the business that have done well. the analyst has taken a bit of a back seat to the actual lending business creating a cash cow for a lot of you guys.
how is that doing and we understand the margins are very healthy for a lot of these names that are out there? >> our service is toll brothers, the only claimed it has. it is not in the business of making money, it is for providing great service, have a great race and closing homes and that is really our focus. it is a secondary business that supports housing. liz: is that we don't break out the margins on this part of the business? >> that is correct, that is exactly right. >> the rating agency came out with this report that said they are highly concerned the home price rebound may be derailed. he was pretty solid about it saying it would go off the fiscal cliff, lots of programs may be cut, and therefore would cause a real problem. what do you say to that report? >> the whole country is truly
concerned about the fiscal cliff, that is obvious. everybody is sitting back and waiting to see if washington can actually get something done. if political agendas can get it aside and think about the devastation that probably occurred with the fiscal cliff. the spring selling season begins in late january. we have been the bright spot in the economy. our industry are creating jobs, we're coming back in the early stages of a recovery so the fiscal cliff january 1 would have a huge impact on the country, and impact on our business, and we have our fingers crossed and are very hopeful washington can get something done and we'll have to see. but if they don't, there is no question there will be a little bit of time until things settle down when the buyers will hit the sidelines. liz: will it derail the tentative recovery here? >> right now we are three weeks away from this fiscal cliff date
and we're still selling houses. i don't think it derails it, but there could be a pause until things get worked out. liz: part of it is being discussed, and that is the possible elimination or at least the cutting of the mortgage interest rate deduction here. on one hand you have that would really hurt this industry and we need this sector to come back on the other, doesn't everybody have to have a stake in this? how do you feel about the possibility that could either be cut or eliminated? >> i think it would be unfortunate if they did it now because housing is what is driving this economy. we are in the early stages of a recovery, so it is important not to touch anything to do with housing for the first year, but understand i that there has to e a modest tweak to the mortgage interest deduction, it will be okay. i don't think it will ever be
eliminated, but if there are some modest changes to it, we will be fine. demand is picking up enough, we feel good enough about where things are headed that is not really what we're worried about now. it is the bigger cliff that is the issue in front of all of us. liz: you have been able to say at least a modest tweak you could live with in th and the iy could live with. how do you feel the cafeteria style discussions i have had whether they would all be capped at 18,000 or 25,000, people could pick and choose what they want. perhaps they choose the mortgage interest rate deduction. they don't need that, or they have, could you live without part of it? >> i don't think a dollar amount cap makes any sense but if it were a percentage amount that is something that is more sensible.
congress and the president understands don't go after the mortgage interest deduction right now. 65 to 70% of the country owns a home, it is more likely there will be discussions about deductions in general without identifying individual deductions. we will have to see how it plays out. i don't think any of this gets done in the next three weeks. that'll be a discussion for three weeks from now and a healthy discussion so long as housing is not stalled because we go over the cliff whatever is discussed over the next year or two should be okay. liz: you're having a great winter season selling year. thank you for joining us to talk about it. >> thank you. liz: anytime. doug yearly is the toll brothers ceo. eventually they could live with a tweaked the mortgage interest rate deduction, interesting stuff. we are watching this so closely because everybody will feel it one way or another. we're still up about 63 points.
>> many of us owe that fac capital founder is a generous man giving to charity, of course, famous for paying the top traders very well, but who knew he was paying the legal expenses of a former employee the government is attempting to flip as a witness against him in the insider trading probe. charlie has -- wait a minute, usually companies have to pay the legal fees, don't they, of
former employees? >> depends on how long ago. matthew was employed two years ago; right? 2010? fired basically, pushed out for poor performance. he's been unployed by sac if two years. this is what we know. couple things here. the government is clear, i got to sources close to government, trying to get him to flip, okay, against steve believes insider trading allegations, drug stocks, provided that information to steve cohen, that's part of the indictment, the charge against him. we don't know -- what they don't say is whether it's inside information, whether steve cohen knew-inside information. steve has not been charged, but the governmentments him, from what we understand, to flip against cohen in this stuff. will he? we understand he's holding out
to today. >> the implication that extensively if they pay for the legal fees, he's not going to turn -- >> he has expensive legal fees. he hired, and you wonder where he gets the money from. he made $9 million in 2008. he's hiring a guy at $1300 an hour. who is that? one of the better ones out there, charlie stillman, long time white collar control defense attorney, and from what we understand, that number is pick up by capital. what do they get? i shoold point out, talked to peter henning, big time white collar professor at the university, and it often happens, but we don't know what his employment contact covers and whether it's two years out. remember, it's not like he was there -- >> he's been gone. >> when you're there, you're charged, you leave, and we don't
know if this was cut now or thhs is -- this is in the contact from back then and whether it's a retro active thing. as long as you are charged for stuff that occurred here, we'll cover you. we don't know. they're not saying. they do get benefits. basically, you talk to henning, tells you point-blank, you know, like i said, it's routine. it happens. we don't know the specifics. there's a suspicion you're buying silence, always a suspicion. number two, there's always sharing the documents and information sharing when you're covering someone's climate. we don't know if they have a cooperation agreement, but you'd think there's a joint defense agreement in place that allows for some cooperation where if he decides to cooperate, at the very lowe's, they get a head's up, and they get to prepare. this is smart lawyering, even if it was predetermined because he
is in the camp, and if he's going to cooperate with the feds, there's some sharing of information. >> we have seen in the past where people have been -- at least their legal fees paid for. for example, david, who left berkshire hataway, buffet's company, they are still paying for the fees, back in may, and it was killing him because he was not happy. >> dave, when it erupted, he was working for him. >> right. >> it wasn't like -- >> that would cover the contact. >> you'd think. that contact goes for another year maybe, but, remember, this is two years out. we don't know. it pays from a purely legal tactical stand point for steve to keep him close. >> the feds are trying to get the companiment unbelievable. >> no doubt. i said this before and again they think steve cohen beats the market regularly and buffet
regularly. you can't be an above market trader routinely and not be doing something illegal. that's what the fed believe. i know that for a fact they think that. >> 28 minutes before the closing bell ringings. i'm still looking at you because it's an interesting story. dow covering up bit, up 71 appointments. the high up 136. imax, everything hollywood, but how about ballywood? all the hit movies like bond, james bond, and bond ticket sales about to break the billion dollar mark. where's the next frontier? block buster in the wick and hobbit due out this weekend, what that means for imax and the bottom line. a conversation with the chief executive coming up next in a fox business exclusive, and, oh, yeah, don't forget, "star trek's" coming too.
>> i'm adam with your fox business brief, rally on wall street continues over optimism is deal will be reached to avert fiscal cliff. the michigan legislature voted in favor of two right to work bills giving employees and unionized shops the right to refuse to pay union dues. governor reich snyder expected to sign tomorrow even though thousands of people continue to protest outside the michigan state capitol building in lancing. it covers shops, but exempts
police and firefighter unions. stub hub strikes out with major league baseball clubs and three are droppling them, yankees, chicago cub, and l.a. angels of anaheim no longer sell tickets on the website although major league baseball extended the partnership with stubhub through 2017. we continue the count down to the closing bell with the original bond girl who said, "diamonds are forever." liz claman? liz: one retailer down in the dumps, but it's shown signs of life. let's get to nicole's on the floor of the new york stock exchange. our diamond girl there. >> hey, thanks. jc penney under pressure with the idea that pronotions, sales, and coupons are not the way, but just great prices all the time.
what happened? people didn't go there. people like promotions. he's the stock, up 4%, and this is why because slowly, but surely, ron johnson have been moving and doing price events, and this is what they've deny doing over the holiday season. they are now trying to promote better pricing and promotions, and op co had an out performance, they liked it, and it's bringing foot traffic in, and, also, there's stores within the store, one of their ideas they've put into place. it's so far, so good. they have outperformed, and long term call on the company's turn around prospects, but they are keeping it, and the stock is up 7% for the month of december alone. back to you, liz. liz: a friend of mine said she was switching from tj maxx to
jcpenney has the new store. >> really? liz: you never hear that, but maybe mr. johnson's ideas are starting to work. from bond to hollywood, imax hotter than ever with more shot in imax format and tweaked to fit the screen. imax the next big market and opening theaters quickly enough? rich, imax ceo joining us now on the phone in a fox business exclusive with the latest on imax's next big hits. rich, i just look at all of these ideas, and i see them coming through, but i have to ask you about bond. it's stunning that "sky fall," a beautiful opening and several weeks after, not number one, and this weekend, reverted to number one. what's this mean? first bond film that breaks the billion dollar mark? >> caller: probably will be, liz, and i think the fact is that what's more remarkable, if you look at the domestic performance of bond, no bond had ever done over $160 million,
than one is close to $260 right now. i think there's a message there which is if you, you know, take the right franchise and rejuvenate it and market it properly and direct it well, which sam did, you can bring the franchises back, and results are spectacular. liz: unusual for a film to fall off the top of the list and get back on, isn't it? it's stunning. >> caller: it is unusual, but the holiday times are a weird time because there's not that many new movies released because people a shopping, and movies are released kind of before, and, this weekend, of course, "the hobbit" opening. more big movies coming which we're involved with "the hot" and what accounted is the lull period with people shopping, and it was a strong word of mouth movie that it played back up. liz: 76% of the ticket sales are for "the hobbit," tell us, is
that an important metric here as we edge towards friday for release? >> caller: well, liz, looking at the key things, the advanced tracking, advanced ticket sales, reviews, they all seem quite positive, and back to last year, the christmas season was crowded with potential blockbuster movies. you had holmes ii, mission impossible iv, girl with the dragon tattoo, and this year, movies are out of the way and big block buster is "the hobbit" because everybody knows that has record-setting potential. we'll see if it gets there, but that's going to be a big movie, and imax, our presales are strong and regular cinema, presales are strong. there's no doubt that's a big movie. liz: as strong as you want them to be, the presales? >> caller: well, actually, you know, we'll see what the final results are over the weekend, but i would say they are probably stronger than i expected up until this point, and the presales are where, you know, some of the larger block
buster films have been, age that that's in that vicinity. i'm feeling probably better about it than two weeks ago. i knew it would be big, but how big. we are waiting to see that, but the signs, earlier, quite positive. liz: great. opening les mez, in four cities in new york, l.a., montreal. why is that? people are dying to see it. >> it's an international release for us, and international markets it plays strong. that's the reason we went to the expense of converting it n. if the u.s., we wanted exposure. we have an agreement with warner brothers because of their investment in hobbit and marketing of it that there's a certain period of time we have to play it for so we counterfeit it in here. i heard great things and looking forward to seeing it. liz: great season, coming up, and a great 2013 with star trek
and superman, looking forward to it, rich, thank you so much. >> thank you, liz, see you at the movies. liz: you bet. presales better than expected for with the the hobbit," and we are gaining ground here. we'll be right back. ♪ e in hong ko. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 after that, it's on toermany. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 then tonight, i'm trading 9500 miles away in japan. tdd#: 1-80345-2550 with the new global account from schwab, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i hunt down opportunities around the world tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 as if i'm right there. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and i'm in total control cause i can trade tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 directly online in 12 markets in their local currencies. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i use their global research to get an edge.
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topping the charts up 4.5% on the session, the biggest winner in the s&p500 right now. sadly, liz, the year-to-date chart, it has not done well. liz: i don't care, radio shack, the little guy. >> urban outfitters today reporting higher than expected earnings so far for the fourth quarter, up 5%, and it's doing pretty well so far this year. going back to the s&p, if you look at the laggers, you find retailers make up the top ten laggards, and family dollar store own 8% in the today's session, concern about the competitive event for the discount retailers. dollar general down after a third quarter earnings beating estimates, but the outlook below estimates, and they are cautious about the competitive environment occupant there now. best buy, one stock that took a hit over the course of the year, and finishes up by showing you,
retailers moving into the downside and upside in today's session. one other stock, petsmart, interesting story here. they became one of the latest companies to accelerate their 2013 quarterly dividend payment into 2012 to avoid taxes, liz, so it's the retailers doing that as well. >> i see on the bottom, gap moving higher after being hammered a couple days, too. it's a nice one year chart nonetheless. thank you, sandra, very much. let's review. the dow jones industrial at one point up 136 # points, john boehner, speaker of the house saying, you know what? there's going to be a deal by the end of the year, and reid, this afternoon, the senate leader said, no, i don't think we're going to present any spending cuts to the g.o.p.. as you see now, we cut gains there, but up 77 points. we talked about the bull and bear costume. steve betting on a bull market in 2013, but bearish for now.
let's talk about what to buy now and what to pounce upon when the market's are ready to come back. start first with, wait for it, wait for it, what are you looking at and hope to eventually purchase? >> domestic cyclical. ford is one, sun trust as another, stocks that will do very well in the u.s., economic recovery, consumer comes back, they are because housing related stocks. l pickup division in ford is coordinated with house. liz: pickup trucks? why is that? >> contractors use trucks and people buy a house, they get the pickup truck, highly car related with housing starts. liz: exactly. >> some of the other stocks we think could start to participate in this housing recovery -- liz: ford or sun trust, one over the other? >> sun trust. i think that's a more stable idea. it's down in the southeast, a market that recovers more
quickly. both cheap stocks, liz. liz: okay. now what do you buy with the coiled spring come forth? you talked industrials. >> one thing i'm really anxious, is caterpillar. this is a big global industrial company, very, very competitive worldwide, benefits from housing, benefits from china, and mining production in china, and even in the ag business. liz: what price? 87.24 right now. >> may pull back 10%, maybe down in the low 80 #s. we think it's got a lot of juice in it for next year. another single digit stock. liz: good companies in shaky times, wait for the pull back and pounce. >> wait to see the eyes of the tiger. liz: the eye of the tiger or the bear or bull at this point. steve, your number one moneymaker now? >> this is controversial, in china, people worried about china. a two year bear market, new leadership in place, economic recovery underway, leading
indicators suggest it's started. this is a company that benefits from all of that domestic growth in china. it's one of the national carriers, and it's connected to the star alliance. stock is trieding at three times, down 45% off its lows. liz: now, if there's a domestic rebound, is that what you believe is really happening there? >> well, we think there's a domestic rebound coming -- lizly -- liz: china -- >> recovery under way, off of what? 7% gdp growth, but up 9% next year. liz: and a growing middle class likes to travel. >> 250 million people entering middle class in china. liz: almost as many people in the u.s.. good to see you. >> good to see you. liz: closing bell ringing in six minutes, up 80 points for the dow, lots of green on the dow, we're coming right back, don't noaf of move.
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it's just common sense, from td ameritrade. liz: the power of the amist at work now with net gear. look at the stock. it is moving higher today. lots of comments on the street, jumping 8.25%, right now, at the highs of the session as we get ready to hear the closing bell, as i said, some really good comments from analysts saying the healthy enterprise and wifi demand is trickling down to net gear, and what makes the story sweeter and interesting is there's very high short interest. short sellers betting the stock would go down, squeezed now as it jumps $2.93, a one year chart of net gear. two minutes from the closing bell. what's going to happen? we have a great guest lineup including the former treasury
secretary, and david asman is preparing for that. david: and substantial, i -- and sam, i want to hear what he has to say. nicole at the new york stock exchange, talk about apple. it was doing well, then slipped a little, single digit dollar amount, back up in the double digit territory in dollar amount. seems to be regaining ground. >> talking about apple, you know it's a volatile, heavily traded stock. today it moved on news china was preordering 3,000 units for the iphone 5. you're seeing growth there in asia. also, the fact that j pmorgan raising projections from 8 -- to 8 million from 7 million units. liz: that's a little boost compared to rim, research in motion, trading at the highest level since may, a significant jump as we s