tv Bulls and Bears FOX Business November 24, 2013 8:00am-8:31am EST
>> more on that and more performances on after e show show. forget the grinch. you're a mean one, mr. health care law? hi, everyone. i'm not the grinch. i'm bnda buttner. the kickoff of the holiday shopping season just days away, now america's biggest retail warning, will obama care be the grinch that it steals holiday sales? here they are, the bulls and bears this week, gary b. smith jonas ferris, john layfield along with garr count boum and sasha burns. gary k., the health care law the
new grinch for holiday sales? >> big yes. if walmart says so you better listen. but the bottom line is, there's a certain rule. it's uncertainty. there's so much out there about fines, fees and how much it's going to cost and when you're going to have to pay. enever that's in the air, people are going to take a step back and there will be head winds. whatever numbers come out, it would more if this wasn't going on. >> sasha, you can blame a lot on obama care, but can you blame this? >> you can blame erything on obama care. it's the scapegoat of the week. but as a standalone it isn't going to hurt. but as a continuation of the debt crisis and government shutdown and this lack of consumer confidence and pessimism and the ability of the government to function and help with the sustained economic recovery, in that way, yes, it does add to it. >> really, gary b., it is all about expectations here. it's hard to quantify how obama
care may have people pulling in their purse s strings but it's l about expectations. if they're worried and confidence goes down, they don't spend. >> exactly, brenda. i disagree with you on one point. i don't think it is hard to quantify. in the most recent "forbes" study, in 49 states the average premium is expected to go up 41%. so if you've gotten a letter like i have from blue cross/blue shield, it's easy to find out what your new premiums are going to be. if you're one of the six or seven people fortunate enough to log on to health care.cgov, you know your new premium. if you're using a state exchange up and running or the one in d.c., you know what your premiums are going to be. you're getting sticker shock. you may not have to start paying premiums right away, i don't have to start paying for a few months, but it's right there in front of you. and, for example, in my case i know that over the course of the year my premium is going to go
up $2,000 to $3,000. for a lot of families they're going to go, whoa, i've got to pay another $2,000, $3,000 next year? i tell you what, i have a bare bones policy. for a lot of people it will be a lot more. that will hit tm in the pockbook. expectations, people are are going to say, you know, i'm not going to spend so much for christmas this year and certainly not next year. >> so i'm off your christmas list. >> you were always on it. you're just not getting a very good gift. >> okay, thank you. jonas, the cost of health care is a questio mark, but you have to have it. and holiday shopping you don't have to have. you can pull in the purse strings. >> look, there will be a better holiday season for health insurance companies than walmart because there's a government mande you buy health insurance. some people choose not to buy it, some don't want it or a lot of it and they are buying other stuff with their money. if my state stopped mandating people buy ba insurance or my
bank didn't care if i had fire insurance, i might spend that money at walmart. but it won't hurt as much as we're talking about probably because a lot of the walmart shoppers may get a subsidized policy. ifhey had no policy, it will still cost them money. i think the high end of the luxury buyer, who sees their taxes going up to pay for obama care is where you'll see spending caughts. >> john, where doyou see it? do you see it this year, maybe snowballing next year as well? >> i see it basicallystarting in the spring. i believe it wasn't start this christmas i. think we're seeing the uncertainty, but i think what hur consumer sentiment the whole thing is lowest participation rate since 1978. we have a couple million fewer jobs than we had at pre-recession level and most of the jobs according to the federal reserve san francisco board have been low wage jobs that have taken the place of higher wage jobs. i think whate're seeing is
down average is about 10% down projections for spending around christmas, around $700 per family. i think we're going to be hurting this christmas. i think it will be mild but not necessarily because of oba care. >> john makes a good point. walmart is the world's largest retailer, but a lot of times companies say something may have an impact because they hope to lower expectations. do you think that's going on here? >> i just think there's more than that. you have to remember something. this is the gary b.'s point, one more important thing. just the fact that people are even looking at these numbers makes them take a step back, just get into a person's psyche, whether they ma -- whether they're middle cla or less than that. if they see their premiums go up 0 or they don't want to buy insurance but they have to pay a big fee, that is going to hit everywhere. not just walmart, it's target and everywhere else. john makes another great point. just look at the employment
numbers. so many people not worki, off the rolls. all of this is not good news. >> sasha, is it as dire as some of our gang are making it? >> no, i don't think so at all. retail sales last month were up. a lot of the trending is showing the spending by lower income consumers is down but higher income consumers is not. auto sales are are up and large appliance sales are are up. so for a walmart or a discount store, a large percentage of their consumers are low income so that's where they're going to be in a different category than higher caliber stores with more affluent custers. >> right. gary b., some of the lower income customers will be getting some sort of supplement. we don't know how much because they can't get onto the web site. but there will be se money getting pumped into the system,
not before are christmas, but do you think that will have an impact? >> you mean the money from the subsidy? >> yes. yeah, but in a lot of cases even -- i know, for example, when i went through and started to do the calculations for my 24-year-old daughter, she gets a subsidy, but it's still not going to be enough to offset the low cost plan she's paying now. that's one of the obama care lies, that all of these people are getting sukz subsidies but your premium still goes up. it offsets it, but it's more than you're paying now. if she pays an extra, say, $700 an hour, thyear, that affects h income a lot more than mine. so she definitely would not be going to spend any more money at walmart for christmas gifts. not that she's getting me one anyway. >> you don't know. you'll have a stocking stuffer i'm sure. jonas, gary b. is talking about low income people having an impact on.
you said high impact would have an effect also. >> i see more impact at high income. that's really who's paying, to some extent people having to buy more health insurance, that's where the tax burden is for obama care. you're not seeing less after-tax pay like you'll see if you sell stock if you're in a high bracket. you might see it at the margin luxury car sales, expensive items. it doesn't mean the economy will go in the toilet. if retailers have a hard time and their stocks have been doing well for the last couple of years. going to use more doctors, at the echbtd day the gdp won't change even though retailers may take a hit as you're forced to shift your dollars from consumer purchases to health insurance. and the health care law hits keep on coming. remember this? >> if you like your doctor, you will be able to keep your doctor. period. >> well, guess what the white house is saying now?
neil and the gang on what may be the next broken promise. that's at the bottom of the hour, but up here first, as the bills pile up for the health care law, worries piling up. it will be the next thing taxpayers have to rescue. but did the government just announce something that will slam the brakes on all those rescues? this is the quicksilver cash back card from capital one. it's not the "fumbling around with rotating categories" card. it's not the etting blindsided by limits" card. it's the no-game-playing, no-earning-limit-having, deep-bomb-throwing, give-me-the-ball-and-i'll-take- it-to-the-house, cash back card. this is the quicksilver cash card from capital one. unlimited 1.5% cash back on every purchase,
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that big auto bailout. the treasury department announcing it will unload its remaining shares in general motors by the end of the year. the total cost to you, more than $11 billion on top of the billion-plus we lost on rescuing clies letter. as the problems pile up for the health care law, there's new talk we could be bracing for morrow bailout. gary b., you say stop these rescues altogether. >> exactly, brenda. we talked about this even prior to all the stimulus, prior to the bailouts. that the government should not be involved. this is what happens when you get government involved in things the market should take care of. the market voted that gm and chrysler and all of those companies couldn't survive. they should have been allowed to perish and go away and the rkers could have been a lot happier working for toyota or honda or ford. instead, we get involved in stuff like this. we get involved, my gos in my
day in the '70s, we get involved with -- or sia lind ra. we'll be revisiting this show, mark my words, and we'll be talking about how the administration went to congress for whatever, a billion dollars, to bail out obama care. >> sasha, supporters of the bailout say that basically the loss to taxpayers is offset by jobs created or saved. do you agree? >> absolutely. if you look at -- there's never anything good about a loss of $11 billion, little more, 11 fountain 5. there's nothing good about that. but when you look at what was gotten out of that, a million jobs saved. the auto industry and auto related industries are 5% of our gdp. at's something worth saving. and if you put it in perspective, na's 11 billion, the government shutdown that was just 16 days of nonsense and
nothing happening cost 24 billion. when you're talking about what an investment is worth, absolutely the auto bailout was. >> john, was this a good investment, our bailouts a good investment? >> what did it save? the president promised, guess just like he promised you can keep your own doctor, your own health care plan, the ocean levels would fall, guantanamo bay would be closed, detroit wouldn't go bankrupt, we put all of that money into general motors, not for the same of the automaker but for the sake of the unions. that's where the money went. they still went bankrupt. just like what the president said, i won't let detroit go bankrupt. was he talking about the automakers or the city? both went bankrupt. that's what naturally ours in free markets. ford is stealing market share right now. they did not take a bailout. we were sold aill of goods on this. >> jonas, isthis proof basically we shouldn't have any more bailouts? >> well, the fact we had to bail out chrysler again to gary b.'s
point, if we didn't bail them out the first time, we wuldn't have to the second time. the public is against bailouts even though they haven't been economically bad for th treasury when you factor all of them together, i don't think we'll get any more of them fortunately. yes, we took a loss on gm. it's a loser company, not a bank that will pay you back. when you factor in all the food stamps that have gone on, all the unemployment insurance, i don't think we took a loss in the grand scheme of things. not saying it's right morally, but i don't think it actually cost the government. >> i hear gary k. getting revved up. i've got to get him in. you probably think this is a big loss for taxpayers, big win for gm. >> the bailout didn't saveobs whatsoever. that is a made-up stor the fact is gm was a viable company before bankruptcy and during. the problem was their stupid legacy costing them $40 billion in debt.
once they expunge the debt through a regular bankruptcy you start anew, fix up the inefficiencies, start anew. this whole thing paid off the unions, took away from shareholders and bond holders and said, look what we did. they take victory lap over a loss for taxpayers. it's not good. it sets a bad precedent. i've got news for you, the next bailout are the banks and health care. >> let'sook forward. there is thought that obama care could be the next one. does that scare you? >> brenda, we already know it's going to be a lot of money. for example, they've had to spend -- how many extra hours patching up the code that they didn't think of? these workers that are doing that, they're not all saying, you know, i get to work an extra 400, 500 hours for fre. no. they need overtime, bring in extra contractors, bring in smart silicon valley people. none of the people are doing it for free. the web site isn't working. by all acunts it's only, what, 60% working right now. in order to get the other 40%,
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what did i do? >> i don't know. why don't you ask your big fat shadow. >> come on, baby. >> baby, baby, baby, baby, baby. >> wow, we interrupt your marital spats with some advice from the federal government. >> calm down, from the u.s. department of health and human services, i'm ira dreyfuss. this isn't about whoins the argument but a study of hot marital fights indicates that when the wife calms down, the couples are more happy. >> that's the same hhs rolling out the health care law now telling us wives staying calm may make marriages happier. john, did we really need them to tell us that? >> i don't know what sexist goof would dare say something asthat. look, my wife runs her own
business. when she comes home, i just do what she says and i go play golf. that's a happy marriage. i'd like to see this idiot show up at my house and tell me wife the way to get along with me is for her to calm down. if you find a triple digit iq, you should give that guy a medal. >> sasha, did we need the government to tell us this? >> i think it's sort of harmless unless anybody tries it. i wouldn't advise it, guys, telling your wife to calm dn. it's just sort of harmless. there's also announcements about smoking and obesity and that sort of thing. we're all for fall values and tradition, right? >> gary b. -- >> you're comparing obesity to wives being calm? >> gary b., how harmless is it? if you told your wife that? >> i have a confession to make. we just celebrated our 25th wedding anniversary on thursday, and i told my wife to calm down
exactly one time 25 years ago. that was it. we had a rocky three or four years after that. >> i'm glad you smoothed it out. >> exactly. >> jonas, you telling your wife to calm down? >> first of all, the rest of the pod gts it, don't tell your wife her butt looks big in pants. that's bad advice as well. we need the government for this. i'll tell you why. if i was to tell my wife this advice, as if i found this research report, i'd get in a lot of trouble. but if i have the weight of the government, this is the health and human services, i am just relaying a message to you from hhs, that for your own health you need to calm down in this argument and let me win. >> this is one time that government counts. >> gary k., you weigh in here now. >> mu i? my wife is watching. look, it's my 28th anniversary this week. i have never had a fight with my wife so i've never had to worry
about this. but i will tell you she keeps a golf club next to the bed. if i ever told her to calm down, it would be swiped right around my head. >> that's it. i'm telling you i never get to calm you guys down. that's for sure. thanks to sas for joining us. we appreciate it. so the mcrib going bye-bye on national menus, but we have the name you should say hello to because of it. >> i love it. i can't believe they're not putting it on menus. >> they' getng rid of it? >> it's one of my favorites at mcdonald's. >> they shouldn't get rid of it. >> that's bad. >> that's bad. ya know, with new fedex one rate
redictions. gary b., take it away. >> brenda, i'm buying a lot of my christmas gifts on ebay this year. i think others are, too. i think the stock is up over the next few months. >> gary k., bull or bear? >> a big, big bear. >> what's your prediction? >> starbucks business is great thand they're gointo sell a lot of holiday mocha latte, 25% in the next year. >> gary b., bull or bear? >> i'm bearish on it. >> john? >> pacquiao was the biggest money fight of all time up 25% in a year. >> jonas? >> bear. >> your prediction? >> the mcrib may not be at your
local mcdonald's long because of a change in policy but it's good for other rib sellers like chile's. >> you've never had mcrib. cavuto on business, take it away. so about that whole document thing and the health care law -- >> if you like your doctor, you will be able to keep your doctor. period. >> if you are looking for -- if you want coverage from your doctor, a doctor you've seen in the past and want that, you can look and see if there's a plan in which that doctor participates. >> we figured you had no heard some of these bites so we figured, you know, maybe the thousandth time is the charm. welcome, everybody. i'm neil cavuto. somebody call the doctor, that is, if you can find your doctor, because the white house is already backtracking on a major part of its health care law.
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