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tv   Making Money With Charles Payne  FOX Business  August 13, 2019 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT

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neil: every dow stock is up for the time-being. we're up a little more than 400 points here but the attention seems to be on a trade deal that might happen. they could get ahead of themselves. who knows. charles payne knows. charles: an inkling. neil: there you go. charles: i'm going with that. i'm charles payne. this is "making money." stocks are soaring after the u.s. trade representative announced tariffs on certain products will be delayed. remains to be seen if this is relief for the markets and longer term rally resumes. we'll show you how to deal with the crazy swings in the market. president trump warning china is sending troops to the border of hong kong. how will beijing deal with the impact of hong kong and economic data? we have that and so much more on "making money." ♪
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charles: stocks are rising sharply after u.s. trade representative said some products are being removed from the china tariff list and other products will actually be delayed until december 15th. here to break down the numbers, from the white house is edward lawrence. reporter: charles, a phone call between the two trade delegations this morning set all of that off. the u.s. trade representative's office said, yes there will be 10% tariffs on basically everything else the china i am poverty into the united states with the catch, there are a groupings of items, some 21 pages of items will be exempt from that, or delay the tariffs until december 15th. these are items we're talking about. groups like laptops, cell phones, videogame consoles, toys and some clothing. we're also talking about athletic shoes in the clothing. nike was very concerned about the round of tariffs. so was under armour. the delay gets them through black friday, most of the
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holiday shopping season. president trump still frustrated he says that the chinese haven't followed through with what they promised him back at the g20 summit, that is buying agriculture. listen. >> they said they would buy farm products. so far they have disappointed me with the truth. they have not been truthful or delayed the decision. it was their intention to buy a lot of farm products. we had a very good call with china. you know they have a problem in hong kong but they would like very much to do something. reporter: now on that call a chinese spokesperson saying that china made stern representations on issues of tariffs. we asked the chinese commerce ministry if china agreed to do anything if delayed certain products. they said no. still refusing to buy u.s. agriculture. my sources say that they are adding tariffs to bring china to
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the table, but also minimize the impact on the u.s. economy. >> we're doing just for christmas season, just in case some of the tariffs would have an impact on u.s. customers. so far they have had virtually none. only impact we have collected almost $60 billion from china, compliments of china. but just in case they might have an impact on people, what we've done, we've delayed it, so they won't be relative to the christmas shopping season. reporter: the two trade delegations on the phone call agreed to talk in two weeks over the phone. the u.s. is preparing for a visit by the chinese trade delegation in september. china is seeing supply chains start to leave but they are digging in still. we'll see how progressive the talks will be when and if they come to the united states. back to you, charles. charles: edward, thank you very much. we're seeing first-hand how deeply latest threats of
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increased tariffs impact the market. president trump saying the u.s. had a very good call with china. goldman sachs and moody's analytics warned of rising chance of recession due to trade uncertainty. i want to bring in michael o'keefe with this. we have all the issues, the big one, it is interesting edward lawrence mentioned 21 pages of items delayed until december 15th. another release, of 120 pages of things still tariffed. >> right. charles: a list of purebred breeding horses. who knew. froze alaska fillets. it is still nuts out there. tariffs are happening out there. this is response by the market. >> certainly a response by the market and in some ways if you look what has been talked about, the fed talked about this trade
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uncertainty. people don't like unknowns so what is nice about the release of information it was providing certain definition and clarity people can respond to. charles: the markets from july 26th until yesterday's close, wilshire 5000 lost $1.6 trillion in value. can we blame that essentially what amounts to a $30 billion tax? that seems like a lopsided response? >> yeah, i think again the market has been nervous around really two things. in my view at the end of the day, one, the fed being unclear about the future. they cut probably less than some people wanted and they weren't signaling hey, we're one and done, hey, we're doing more. the reason they're being data dependent. not so much of tariffs but uncertainty where we're headed. market is nervous about both those things. charles: 10% becomes 25%. china's currency actions become other actions. we morph from a currency war to
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a cold war, to whatever. >> right. what the market wants some kind of a definition, hey we'll meet twice a month for four months. see where we go. charles: you brought up the fed. here is my assessment, i want to get your thoughts. i think powell made a big mistake, not necessarily cutting only by 25 basis point, said sort of as an adjustment, hinting there would be limited rate cut here in out. >> right. charles: to a degree he thumbed his nose at president trump. here is the problem with that, he said he would make sure the world would know we wouldn't dip into recession. seems like he is behind the curve. the markets are calling for a lot more rate cuts than the fed signaled thus far. >> absolutely. of the stocks are one thing. they're bouncing around a little nervous. the yield curve is saying the fed has to act a lot more. what is interesting about powell and his approach, this mid-cycle adjustment, i think people you know value the comments that they're going to watch the data.
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to me what they're saying, they are going to watch, if we see things start to weaken we're going to act. charles: the problem with that, he gave a speech in dallas, one of the great questions, one in the audience asked when will you know the impact of actions? he said could be 18 to 24 month. the data they're reacting to, for instance, this morning, cpi report, some people saying the core was a little bit hotter, maybe tariffs are seeping through. i thought it was interesting, the thing that jumped the most, men's underwear, up 4.7%, we'll do our patriotic duty to stop buying that. the point will he react this kind of data? what data would he react to because he is way off the mark what the markets expect? >> that's good point. i don't think it is real time current data he is reacting to. he is reacting to things like policy, watching trade uncertainty blow up. almost like if it is, the current, you know, back and forth between the u.s. and china
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heats up, those are the global crosscurrent we're referring to. i think they will respond. charles: part of the global crosscurrent are, certainly economies of the world are in trouble, they're struggling mightily. we see what the bond market is doing. i think a lot of this volatility in our market has as much to do with bonds buying yields, how quickly they're spiking up and down. what is the market telling us, what are the sharp moves in bond yields telling us and what should they be telling the fed? >> especially the 10-year treasurys, this measure has those market participants telling us that the fed has to act further. charles: flattening or getting close to inversion with the 10 and two? recession, we're hearing it more in the last 24 hours. "the washington post" written about it three or four times. they have political reasons for writing about it. but as americans hear that word more, they will become nervous
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as well. >> it is all about, at the end of the day, we have two key participant in this economy, consumer and businesses. the consumer so far is strong. you're right if they start seeing news, it starts to cause them to back off, that is a real issue. businesses as well, we've been watching for, worried about a slowdown. i looked at some of the data, not so much so. it is all about in my view this u.s. china trade thing settling down. charles: for now the long term rally still intact? >> yes. charles: michael love talking to you great stuff of the appreciate it. >> thank you. [shouting] charles: hong kong's airport canceling all departing flight for a second day. this after protesters took over the terminals. many departing flight have also been affected. president trump tweeting moments ago, our intelligence has informed us that the chinese government is moving troops to the border with hong kong. everyone should be calm and safe.
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joining us now to discuss, former state department senior advisor christian whiton in a couple administrations. if you were in the state department right now, what would the conversation sound like? >> i spoken to people in the state department, i was just in hong kong myself, there is concern that china is about to make a very serious mistake, which would not be an invasion by the people's liberation army, 1989-style tianamen square massacre but invasion by military or paramilitary police. that also would be a big mistake. the president calling for calm is a good thing. also supporting these protesters. what you see on tv are violent confrontation with police. 80, 90% of this movement involves very peaceful, calm protests from people in all walks of life in hong kong wanting their freedom. charles: the president is supporting the protesters. a lot of folks are saying he is not supporting them enough, not
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being more vocal about it. i find it interesting, paradoxical, a lot of folks say hey don't get involved with a trade war with china, but get involved in their domestic policies or politics. it's a tightrope kind of act. what more could the president do to signal to the world he is trying to support these protesters? >> i think he has done a fair amount. i think he is being careful. after all, we are a nation with interests, our primary interests are economic and security related. donald trump does not run humanitarian ngo but as it becomes clearer and clearer, i think china is not dealing honestly with the trade negotiations, trying to outweight donald trump, hoping he loses the election. i don't think he will. i think that gives the president more leeway to say listen, china should listen to the protesters. china should engage in a dialogue. china should fulfill promises it made. china made international promises to respect hong kong's relative autonomy.
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make way for democracy with universal suffrage and broke the promises. we keep that in mind when we think about the promises they make us in trade negotiations. charles: broken promises. christian, always appreciate it. >> thanks, charles. charles: we'll follow the protests as chaos erupted in hong kong's airport throughout the hour. the markets continue to trend higher. while the markets are rallying right now, this volatility gives us a important teaching lesson. you can't make knee-jerk reactions if the market is in selloff mode. throwing off great stocks with the bad is always a bad idea. ♪
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looks like it is beginning to wrap up because we now have breaking news, sending shares of cbs and viacom, both on your screen much higher. the two media companies reportedly reached an agreement on the merger deal that had been in and out of the works a long time. there were political problems there. there were personality clashes there. there were a whole lot of issues that kept them apart. in a world of increasing media mergers, to compete in the new world this probably had to get done. the question at one point were insurmountable obstacles apparently have been ironed out. as you can see cbs shares up 50 cents. more than a percentage point. so are viacom shares. all eyes where do we go from here? where do the merged companies go from here? where do they compete in a world where content is king and delivering content is king? a year ago, espn was a winner. now maybe they're not the winners. take it to charlie gasparino. he has been on top of this more than anyone else.
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charlie, give us some of the details, please. >> we were ahead of the story as we've been on the sprint t-mobile. it's a combined company. cbs is technically the larger company here. so technically cbs taking over viacom but here is the interesting thing, they are spinning this as a merger of equals and one of the reasons why they're doing it, viacom chief bob bakish will be the ceo of the combined company. the combined company will be call viacom, cbs. interesting since cbs is the bigger entity. here is a bigger thing, they made a point in the press release, joe ianniello, head of cbs will be the new ceo chairman of cbs and chairman as well. one of the hiccups in negotiations, it delayed things past yesterday, monday was supposed to be the announcement, locking down joe ianniello
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locking down a deal he would stay longer than his contract which ends at the end of this year. it will be interesting to see how long joe stays with the company. in the press release i don't see it. i've done a cure -- considers read of this thing. is joe ianniello staying longer and how much do they pay him? remember he had a lucrative contract to leave at the end of this year because he was not getting the ceo job as it was clear as we reported on fox business, bakish considering his relationship with ceo. he did a great job running viacom after the ouster of phillipe dauman becoming head of the prior company. the deal is done. thank god we don't have to talk about this for a couple days. it is real interesting, charles, here is the thing, people are giving me a wrap, let me make
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the one point. cbs and viacom together is a 30 billion-dollar company. think about it this way, at&t which controls warner media, formerly of time warner is something like a 250 billion-dollar company. despite the marquee names, nickelodeon, viacom, cbs this is still a small company in the media landscape. a lot of people think they will be bought in the future. no other way to compete out there. charles: charlie, you've been ahead of everyone else. thank you, buddy, we appreciate it. meanwhile folks, protesters swarming the hong kong airport right now. there have been clashes with police. we're monitoring the situation throughout the rest of the hour. [shouting] this is the couple who wanted to get away
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charles: what a difference a day makes. all the s&p 500 sectors are higher, led by the biggest losers from yesterday, including technology and consumer
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discretionary. by the way, these sectors were facing biggest hits from potential tariffs. i know many investors are looking at this very moment at stocks they sold yesterday popping today. here is the deal, folks, don't panic in up or down markets. focus on underlying fundamentals, there will be winners in sectors you know pressure. to that point, while the pros said sell all the retail stocks, closer look at yesterday's session, the worst stocks in the segment were already broken down names. i'm talking about stocks trading near the 52 lows, already missed earnings. given poor execution, poor guidance. pvh, l brands, tiffany's, these have been dead names almost a year! hanesbrand, under armour, mohawk industries. whether it is retail or computer chips, any sector that will have news, keep in mind, when you say i will simply sell everything, you are probably potentially
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selling big winners also. joining me to drill down on that, bellpointe chief market strategist, david nelson. there will be big winners in the consumer segment. i worry when people try to follow the pros or the traders, listen and do that kind of stuff because you don't sell everything. >> you can't sell everything and there is a huge difference between an l brands, say a target or a walmart. the amazon effect is well underred into but some companies invested heavily to that end. target, walmart will be survivors. we get big box retailer is challenged in this environment. if you decide you don't want to be in within retail. within consumer discretionary there is a lot of other places to go. even in retail, you could get defensive with mcdonald's or chipotle. those names are killing it. may be in the retail sector, in a little more defensive way. charles: consumers are spending. to your point, we've seen
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starbucks, chip pole see, mcdonald's, darden. >> starbucks generate 10% in free cash flow. how can you ignore that. charles: i went to five below over the weekend with my granddaughter, she dragged me into the store. i'm looking hard at the stock, that is all i will tell you, i'm looking hard at the stock. i'm using that as example of really bad stocks weighing down a sector. it happens everywhere, within all these sectors there are going to be winners an losers. the idea of selling an entire sector -- >> selling an entire sector is not the way to go. we had a problem with the financials which is a huge sector. banks were challenged because interest margins were not there. look at five-year chart of progressive. it is through the roof. other companies within financials have done as well. look at asset managers. think about it, the market is up. they pay assets under management by definition. charles: we look at big banks. >> look at jpmorgan, citigroup,
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wells fargo. sometimes those will be stalled for a while. there are other places to go. charles: we were up 520 dow points. we pulled back a little bit. it is pretty clear we have serious, serious technical resistance. for the dow i'm thinking 26,500, nasdaq 8,000, s&p, 2930. are we going to be range-bound after today's news? will we continue to bounce around in this wide range with these volatile moves? >> we're hostage to the news cycle for sure. this is the kind of thing we'll have to deal with until the 2020 election because it is pretty clear this entire thing is being pushed to the 2020 election. frankly the 2020 election will be a referendum how this china deal is going to go. if president trump -- charles: what if there is no deal? >> i think that depends whether president trump is elected or not. if he -- charles: could he be reelected without a deal? >> yeah, i think he can. strategically he made only move that can be made. he knows this is going to 2020 at this point.
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how the economy plays out, where we are 12 months from today, will likely decide the election. charles: overall the long-term rally is it still intact for now? >> i think it is, yeah. charles: david nelson, thank you very much. always appreciate it. >> thank you. neil: charles: the market is in rally mode despite the chaos erupting in hong kong. folks we're following those developments for you and we've got an update for you next. ♪ your daily dashboard from fidelity. a visual snapshot of your investments. key portfolio events. all in one place. because when it's decision time... you need decision tech. only from fidelity. 2,000 fence posts. 900 acres. 48 bales.
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charles: the markets are still rallying on news that certain tariffs on chinese goods will go into effect next month. many others are being deplayed. still all not well in in china. protesters clashing with police at the hong kong airport. president trump says chinese troops may be ready to take action. joining me now with reaction from the the floor of the new york stock exchange is jackie deangelis. jackie, you have these countervailing forces, right? sigh of relief on tariffs but these horrible images from hong kong. >> it's a love-hate relationship with headlines coming from china and u.s. on trade. these reactions are very strange. these bumps we're getting, 440
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points on the dow, coming to the fact the u.s. will delay imposition of the tariffs until december 15th, certain clothes, cell phones, computers, toys, that kind of thing and the market is breathing a sigh of relief. we had news that lighthizer and mnuchin will talk to the chinese in two weeks. progress is being made. u.s. giving concessions so it can try to make a deal. that is the interpretation of traders on the floor here. look at the 10-year note. because as investors went into stocks today, they sold bonds. you can see that the yield is rising slightly there, 1.69%. meantime leaders on the dow, they cover a broad range of sectors. tech got hit very hard. it will be protected by the new tariff restrictions it seems. apple is leading the dow higher. intel doing well. caterpillar, industrial name, is rebounding. finally want to draw your attention to walmart, another dow leader. retail, toys, all of these names are seeing a little bit of a
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boost today. walmart is one that does a lot of business with china. it will be reporting this week. all ice going to be on that. best buy, nike, macy's, nordstrom all higher across the board, charles. finally i want to say in the risk on, risk off theme, oil higher in the risk on vain and oil a little bit lower. back to you. charles: jackie, thank you very much. for more on today's rally i want to bring in trend macro's don luskin. tariff relief. i'm sorry, we don't have don. >> i think you do. charles: we do have you. we had, next guest also, he came up. let's start this, don. >> start over. charles: today's rally, sigh of relief, where do we go from here? >> well the big news here is, trump's new tariffs threw china into a currency crisis. the chinese yuan passed $7 to the renminbi mark.
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it was turning into a full-blown currency crisis. we saw yesterday in argue a what a currency crisis can do to a country. by backing off tariffs, delaying them that lowers probability they will ever be put in place. that takes a lot of heat on currency crisis. the chinese currency is rallying 1%. that takes away a lot of end of the world risk. last thing we want to do is have the second largest economy in the world go argentina on us. that risk backed off. whatever happens in the trade war, that risk backed off. that is good. charles: so the audience knows, argentina's equity market, main one off 38% yesterday. the currency peso was off 20% over election results. you know, they look like they will be down a path of defaulting. don, it is interesting that you mentioned the actions of the market, sort of coming to the rescue for politicians. that is sort of intriguing, isn't it? >> yeah it is and the markets
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are really very responsive to what politicians do, right? we know this in many conventional ways, just sort of become invisible to us because we're so used to it. we know every six weeks when the politicians on the federal reserve board makes their decisions it moves market as lot. same thing with presidents, prime ministers, and communists and all the other people that move to places like china and argentina around. charles: let's talk about the fed for a moment. you're still getting a lot of applause for the your op-ed in the journal couple days, yesterday. you take jerome powell to the woodshed here. what is your problem with the way he handles policy? >> one of the most important things you have to have to be a fed chairman, is you have to know how to communicate and it is no sin, it is not like a personal failing that he happens to be a terrible communicator. the problem is this job requires it. markets simply do not know how to read his intentions and
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markets need to be able to read the fed chair's intentions. what he is doing now with the balance sheets, last fomc meeting, announces out of the blue, we're no longer going to be gradually running off the balance sheet. it will stop tomorrow. why? there is a press conference where the press can ask why. some enterprising reporter asked why? what did powell say? well, just for reasons of efficiency. i guess i don't really know. oh, great. charles: he did not gain any credibility with that last press conference. donald, we have breaking news. appreciate your wisdom. >> thank you. charles: right now the justice department has temporarily reassigned the warden at the federal jail where jeffrey epstein committed suicide over the weekend. also the two corrections officers who were working when the disgraced financeer died have been placed on leave. meanwhile president trump speaking outside of pittsburgh right now, touting jobs and
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america's energy dominance but is that renaissance beginning to fade? we're following the rally for you. we're getting close to the final hour of trading. as another effort, maybe we'll retest the highs of the session. stay with us. ♪ ♪ limu emu & doug look limu. a civilian buying a new car. let's go. limu's right. liberty mutual can save you money by customizing your car insurance, so you only pay for what you need. oh... yeah, i've been a customer for years. huh... only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ dexperience thrillingn operformance.o now at the lexus golden opportunity sales event. get 0.9% apr for 60 months on all 2019 models.
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charles: right now president trump is speaking about america's energy independence and dominance and manufacturing revival. this before touring of petrochemical facility outside of pittsburgh. this is coming as the dow rallying as ustr delays certain tariffs on products. delayed some, got rid of some. president i want to bring in, president of canary usa, the ceo, dan ebber hard. thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having me again. charles: let's talk first and foremost about the one thing that we take for granted,
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america's energy independence. it has made a difference economically. national security, all the stuff happening, strait of hormuz, five years ago, 10 years ago, we would be suffering. we would pay six bucks a gallon for gasoline, it means a lot, doesn't it? >> it is really a great story, zero exports in 2015 to 2 1/2, 2.8 million barrels a day we're exporting that has brought a lot of hard currency. it also brought, u.s. shale, energy renaissance, also enabled us to do things like the deal with iran, which i don't agree with. but sanctions on russia, pushback from saudi arabia, those are we were reliant on oil for opec. charles: what about deal with iran? >> i think it was a bad deal as constructed under obama. i agree with trump putting the sanctions on to try to curb
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their, curb their actions, bring them back to the table so we get a tougher deal. charles: we still have resistance, however, all the major democratic candidates are running on climate change. a lot are taking aim at oil companies, pointing to a so-called short-term profits and greed. listen, everyone agrees, adheres to all of the above strategy. can we afford to get rid of crude oil in this country? can the economy stand isn't is it that time yet? >> i don't think time for that at all. all of the above strategy doesn't make sense for the long term. look at jobs created and how cheap and abundant oil is, the fact we're getting better and better finding it. it is creating jobs providing a boost to the economy. giving renewable resources time to mature, become more cost
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effective, economically fish end a lot of resources are not there, not mature enough. u.s. shale changed the game. charles: let me ask but the manufacturing renaissance. without a doubt we entered one after president trump was elected. over 400,000 jobs, manufacturing swelling. more recently it has been stumbling. is the renaissance over? has the magic wand lost its pixie dust? >> oh, i think the magic wand is still working. elizabeth warren's comments at end of july is wrong. manufacturing renaissance is continuing. in june, number of manufacturing members were up 17,000 over the previous three months. also in june, orders were up, orders to factories in the u.s. were up over a billion dollars. the manufacturing renaissance has got longer and longer legs. with automation and efficiency, with cheap natural gas providing
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electricity, some industries which trump is speaking on, industry like the petrochemical industry is, makes more sense in asia, here and europe because much cheaper natural gas. charles: dan, always good to talk to you. >> good to see you again. charles: the market is jump after the u.s. council delayed tariffs on chinese exports to us. the media is quick to say trump's trade war surety hadding america's farmers. it is china's attempt to hurt the farmers is hurting them. we'll ask how they feel next. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪
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charles: agricultural confidence surged in july, this according to prudential university it is not just the farmer communities economic output, crop conditions are starting to improve. all of this contrary to sentiment that the trade war has farmers in a rut. yes they're being hit, not to the degree perhaps you think. i want to bring in fox news contributor deroy murdoch to discuss this. deroy, in july, current condition, jumped 44 points. that was the biggest single jump ever in the history of monitoring agricultural confidence. the farmers believe president trump will do this, get this done. they know they have been deliberately targeted by china. i just get upset when the media says that trump tariffs are hurting farmers. no, it is china's retaliation. they are doing it deliberately for political reasons. >> that is a bit of a surprise. i'm startled to see that going up quite so much, given what we heard about farmers having
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trouble getting their products into china. as you said they had trouble with big floods, that kind of thing. that is very good news to see that much of a increase a record increase in the sector which is so important economically, politically, otherwise. charles: politically, that's why everyone was in iowa. iowa state university did a poll two month ago. 57% of the farmers supported president trump on tariffs. 30% oppose, ranging somewhat to strongly. does that surprise you at all? >> those are very strong numberses, given the trouble with the way the trade policy interfered with their trade flows, flows of products. it is not 51-49, 57 on the plus side. that is very strong. charles: today hong kong is big news. particularly the images we've seen from the airport. what do you make of this? it feels like china, i know their intuition is to come in with the billy clubs. that is what they really want to do. the world is watching, literally
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watching this. you spent time in hong kong. >> i did. one of the greatest times of my life when i spent fall of '88, my mba program at chinese university of hong kong. it was wonderful place. i was back there recently as 2011. it has been a few years. i know people there. it is amazing place. freest economy on the planet. i wish the chinese would do, leave hong kong alone, let it thrive, let the cash flow in. it will be easy to finance what they do. if they crack down in hong kong or china, it will cause cap call flight. people will want less to invest in hong kong. it will throw a monkey wrench into the trade talks with the united states. charles: president trump put out a tweet about an hour ago, saying for cooler heads to prevail, everyone to remain calm. you're hoping exactly what happens? >> i hope that is what happens. charles: do you think that will happen? do you think china resists own urges to go in there, show brute
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strength and force? >> what will be tough, china to maintain face. they like to maintain face. not be humiliated and embarrassed. these are people shutting down a major international airport. shutting down jfk or lax for couple days. i have not seen anything like this before. i'm not sure who is the martin luther king or nelson mandela of movement. who do they talk to? this seems like a mob that is out of control? charles: the arab spring didn't have any either, but changed a lot of governments over there. >> not necessarily for the better unfortunately. charles: deroy murdoch. thank you. >> pleasure. charles: some tariffs including on cell phones and laptops are delayed. what you should be buying as we head into the final hour of trading. ♪
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charles: well, folks, it has been a wild ride for the market. this week, last week, the week before, and of course, after yesterday's selloff, who would have thought the markets are in rally mode and this, of course, the big news. ustr delayed tariffs on certain products, toys, cell phones, computers. that's giving apple a huge bump today. the tech giant leading the dow higher into the final hour of trading. i want to bring in jonas farris and todd horowitz. we are still range-bound from where we started last monday's session. nevertheless, these wild swings, what does it mean for you as an investor? >> we only really gained some of the losses from the escalation of the tariff war so it's not like we're on to new highs.
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at the end of the day, these companies got a huge tax break that's far in excess of the tariffs they will be paying, and consumers got an even bigger break with these low interest rates that have kicked in since the global economy started slowing or at least the fears of it slowing have kicked in. those two offset these tariffsa are more positioned to afford this tariff than any company in the world including samsung. yes, the tariffs being kicked off to next year on all these gift items is great for the consumer and these companies, but i don't think that's really what's going on. i think at the end of the day, we are at this break point where we will either go into global recession or the super-low rates are going to cause another boom in the stock market, pick up inflation, lead to higher rates. that could very well happen as well. i think investors are very focused on the tariff thing because it's the straw that might break the camel back either way. i personally think you should stay invested. it's a teetering area. i would focus on areas that have been kind of lagging recently, maybe mortgage bonds now come
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out of the longer term bonds that have done very well in the recent few weeks of interest rates going down. i would also add some european stock funds. charles: todd, you have been concerned about the economy and the stock market. it hasn't always just been about tariffs. jonas just alluded to the fact there are other things besides the stuff that dominates these headlines. what do you make of the rally and also the concerns you have, because i think you are looking for a major decline at some point in these markets. >> i am, charles. good afternoon. again, i look at the entire, you know, we can go back to the currency manipulator. again, china is not a currency manipulator. the whole world is currency manipulators. everybody wants their currency down. interest rates around the globe are below zero other than the united states. you've got high yielding bonds that are paying what government rated bonds should pay and they're not. the austrian bond is at a point and a quarter. people are flowing everywhere to find some source of yield. this is always the end of a cycle. does it mean today?
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no. we had a big rally, a big announcement that the shorts covered, we had a 25-minute rally, 500 points for the dow and sat here the last four hours. there's too many problems, and tariffs and trade is not -- china has accounted for their side of it because they have reduced the price of the yuan. there really is no tariff coming over. the real problem is going back, is where the problem comes in. but coming in, there has not been a real problem which is why you haven't seen a major raise in prices everywhere. people have tried to accommodate it but at the end, it's really not that big a deal. it's really the rest of the global economy. it's what's going on in europe, what's going on everywhere that shows us that there's a problem and the other big thing is even though the money is cheap, the average guy can't borrow it. he's not going to be able to go out and buy that home even with low interest rates because banks don't want to lend it because the lending rate, the spread is too small. they don't make enough money. they take the risk on their books by buying the loans from somebody else. that's another problem.
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charles: great point you make, the problem not about coming in but going out with respect to china. the fed is a big component of this. president trump just again talking about the fed, surprise. let's take a listen to what he had to say. >> our country wasn't doing well with biden and obama. wasn't doing well. and they were pouring money in, pouring, pouring money in and it wasn't doing well. even now, you know, you see the interest rates, i'm paying a normalized interest rate. we should be paying less, frankly. this guy's made a big mistake. the head of the fed. that was another beauty that i chose. charles: another beauty. what can jay powell do to redeem himself? >> were those french protesters behind him? trying to figure out what all that was. you know, he should probably lower rates even more. we have been talking about this for a long time on the show. he definitely went too high. again, could have been worse. he could have gone to 4% or 5% and caused a real recession like previous fed chiefs have done. that said, i think the rate
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should be lower than the ten-year bond. it always should be, to keep a positive thing. that's a lot lower. but again, no one knows. the economy can heat up with low rates again. he's in a tough position. charles: got to leave it there. midcycle adjustment was a big mistake. thank you both very much. liz claman, you know, dow's up 400 points and been holding up for a few hours. liz: right, but you know what, i know you have been watching the nasdaq. is it any surprise that it's the nasdaq that's having an unbelievable session, as we head into the final hour of trade. we'll know because it's consumer technology that's getting the best, most bullish bump after team trump announced a total change, a delay in tariffs on some chinese exports, to keep prices stable during the holiday season here in the u.s. toy companies no doubt absolutely thrilled by the reprieve, not just the electronics guys. shares holding on to gains all day, rallying after the u.s. trade representative announced the duties on


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