tv Barrons Roundtable FOX Business October 11, 2020 9:30am-10:01am EDT
>> more than 90% have topped their earnings and sales expectations which are ridiculous numbers. shows how hard it is to try to predict these accurately. but the bar is also high for companies. they really have to beat by a lot. investors are expecting it, and so if they don't, you can see pullbacks. overall, earnings season is a great time for the market. it's averaged about a 4% gain over the last four quarters. during the five weeks when it's really at its peak. i think it's pretty important for us. jack: thank you, ben. one area where we're seeing very little good news, jack, we heard regal cinemas were shutting more than 500 theaters, and worst of all, wonder woman put off, james bond, batman. what's happening in the movie business? >> well, if you take wonder woman as an example, we were supposed to get that in june, then pushed back to october. the latest i heard is december,
but as you say, jack, if you see a wide theater release of that movie this year, i will dress as wonder woman on the last episode of this show this year. it's not going to happen based on sign es i'm seeing right now. and you've got theaters reclosing. for people who are thinking about bottom fishing this industry and buying some of these publicly-traded theater companies on the cheap, i'm talking about amc, cinemarx read our story in barron's first. one issue is if you go another six months with no big movies coming to theaters, you could gun to run into some liquidity problems. but you also have to consider that hollywood is evolving. it's not sitting still. and the longer that hollywood learns how to make money from movies going to streaming, you know, theaters and streaming, totally different business. egg every studio executive says a big budget movie these days is a $200 million production budget. you can't take a movie like that and expect to turn a profit in
streaming. as the buzz changes -- business changes, i just think it begins to slip further and further away, the idea we're ever going to return to the heyday of movie theaters. jack: maybe the blockbuster days are over. carlton, i want to go to you to talk about something in california that most people might not be aware of. we're all focused on the very top of the ballot come november 3rd, but an interesting question that california voters will decide is whether or not to overturn something called ad-5 which essentially requires companies like uber and lyft would have to treat their gig workers like full-time employees in some way. >> yeah. so the companies like uber and lyft, they're hoping prop 22 will pass, and that will maintain the status quo for them, and they're spending big money to try to get this to go in their fair. about $185 million. it's too early to tell. there's slight indication that uber and lyft will be successful, but there's still a lot of undecideds out there.
if it does pass, the upside is pretty limited. it's going to be the status quo for them. they'll be operating as normal and in a challenged environment right now where people aren't commuting and going out as much. if it doesn't go in their favor though, that's going to be a real change for how these companies do business. for consumers, you know, that would mean possibly fewer drivers out there just was it's unclear, you know -- because it's unclear how many drivers uber and list would want to employ. jack: and real quick, this is an interesting dilemma we all face as technology becomes a more important part of our lives, what are we willing to give up for convenience? >> exactly. you know, there's a lot of headlines about regulation and big tech, and, you know, you see a range of companies whether it's the googles and amazons, issues of privacy and competitiveness, or uber and lyft on worker fairness, so how this goes in big tech's a favor could have implications for other regulatory measures.
♪ jack: this week federal reserve chairman jerome powell urged lawmakers to provide more covid-19 stimulus. st. louis fed president james bullard doesn't necessarily agree. he joins me now. >> thanks for having me. jack: of course, the market is not the same as the economy, but still fed chairman jay powell says stimulus help is needed. i want to play a quick clip of his comments right now. >> a long period of
unnecessarily slow progress could continue to exacerbate existing disparities in our economy. that would be tragic, especially in height of our country's progress on -- light of our country's progress on these issues. too little support would lead to a weak recovery, creating unnecessary hardship for households and businesses. by contrast, the risks of overdoing it seem for now to be smaller. even if policy actions ultimately prove to be greater than needed, they will not go to waste. jack: so, jim, you're a bit more on optimistic about the economy. you don't see as much need for stimulus. >> yeah. the original cares act, you know, authorized government borrowing on the order of 10% of gdp plus other legislation in the spring which i thought was an excellent response, bipartisan response out of washington, good monetary policy coming with it. so the short -- that was designed for a shortfall in gdp of something like 10-12%, but it looks like is the shortfall will
only be 3-4% of gdp. so at an aggregate level, it seems like we have enough resource. i will say chair powell's right to emphasize the potential downside and mitigating that risk. they might want to go ahead. but still, it seems like we did a good job in the spring and should be enough resources out there at least to get us through the end of the year. jack: as you look ahead to the end of the year, early next year, what economic metrics are your favorite? what are the leading economic indicators that you look to? >> you know, there's been rapid improvement in the labor market. we're certainly not all the way there yet, but one of the things that's been going on that's very different about this crisis as opposed to the financial crisis of 2009 is that a lot of the layoffs are temporary. we've got workers identifying as being on furlough or on
temporary layoff. at one point it was 85% of all those who were unemployed said they were on temporary layoff. it's still close to, a little bit under half say that they're on temporary layoffs. what we know about those kinds of workers is that they tend to get recalled, so let's cross our fingers. i think a lot of them have been recalled already, but let's cross our fingers that more will continue to get called and the layoff category will go back to its normal level. if that all happens, data will come down rapidly in the last few months of the year here. jack: you also hear on main street a lot of small businesses struggling. obviously, restaurants, hotels and so forth are having a tough time because travel's knotts happening, but -- not happening, but other business as well. do they need a lifeline to get us through? >> yeah. small businesses, especially those in travel and leisure, are really taking it on the chin
here during this crisis. i think we're all, you know, very sympathetic with those businesses. i think the ppp program was very successful, and that's something where you could do another round and probably have some success with that. jack: one question for you, i realize this could change with the next tweet, but earlier in the week the president seemed negative on stimulus, and then on friday he seem ad quite positive -- seemed quite positive. you mentioned the $1.8 trillion number which is kind of close to nancy pelosi's $2.2 trillion. if mnuchin and pelosi can work out a deal, do you see less effective versus more effective fiscal stimulus? in other words, is the paycheck replacement better than infrastructure, vice versa? what gets money into the economy in the most efficient way? >> this is a pandemic shock. you've asked workers to stay at home to invest in the national health. they deserve to be, get their
incomes replaced while they're trying to investigation in our national health. that's where you want the money to go, that's who you want to be helped. i think congress did a good job in the spring of picking up the ppp program, the unemployment insurance program. when congress gets involved, they tend to add many other things to that, and i think that's where they get hung up and start to get into partisan battles. that's why it's hard to bring a deal, you know, and get it all done. but i think the general shape of fiscal response during the crisis have been very good, and you could probably do more in those targeted areas where you're actually getting dollars to the people and to the businesses that are actually disrupted. jack: james bullard, thank you very much for your insights. i hope your optimism proves correct. we'll see you again soon. >> thank you. thanks for having me. jack: coming up, tech stocks have dominated the market for
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three things, we had -- well, not sure about that. we had three trends and basically five stocks, right? so just like we've had this software tech boom all throughout the tens and teens, right, that's given way to having some of the industrial companies adopt some of these technologies for automation and to process big data, right? there is more factory automation, companies like rockwell make products to control processes, manufacturing processes. now they're collecting all that data, generating new business opportunities, and it's an opportunity for them to improve margins. even a company like caterpillar, adopting technology to automate some of its mining trucks and then also selling services based on the data that's collected. so that's one or two of those big trends that data and automation feed. the second theme that we really go deep into is electrification and renewable energy.
we weren't looking at necessarily solar panels or windmills, but really the companies that connect these things from, you know, the wind farm all the way to your home. and those are companies with electrical businesses like schneider, schneider electric, eaton and even qantas services, the company that builds transmission distribution infrastructure. so that electrification trend is really set to accelerate as we add vehicles, cars, heavy duty trucks to the grid, getting off fossil fuels and also as we add renewable generation to the nations and the world's electrical generating capabilities. jack: it's great to hear less or known companies that are going to be changing our lives. i think jack howe has a question about this. >> yeah, al, when it comes to big tech, right, the u.s. is
google-icious. we are dominant. no one else comes close. but how competitive are we these days in industrial manufacturing versus our rivals overseas? >> yeah, you know, it's interesting, i often lament industrials don't get enough love, right? google, trillion dollar market value, large, huge industrials are $100 billion. they're nowhere near. the u.s. is very competitive. they have great companies, caterpillar, rockwell automation, eaton, honeywell. these are world class enterprises, and there's no reason that the basis of competition, like, we're not behind other regions of the world in the adopting technology or utilizing technology. other companies are doing it too, schneider electric, actually, is a french company. but, so the market share, you know, we're not predicting sort of market share shift or anything like that. what we see is an acceleration of capital and industrial spending over the next decade.
but to your point, you know, there's always sort of, you know, a u.s. and a foreign competitor. there's like boeing and air bus or caterpillar. that's how the industrial world seems to work. jack: and, of course, the big dynamic has been there's no facebook, no google overseas. ben, that's going to be interesting in terms of indexing your investments should al's prediction come true. >> that's right. i mean, tech has been one of the big reasons that the united states' stock market has outperformed all comers during the last decade. they just don't have the weighting in tech stocks that the u.s. does. but if tech starts to underperform and other kinds of company like industrials start to outperform, you could see overseas stocks do better. it's something like we saw in the 2000s when the u.s. market did okay, but it was really overseas where the action was. jack: and carlton has been looking at one of the companies that you picked out for a long time, al. i think she wants to ask about
it. >> yeah, al, i'm really curious to hear your thoughts on eaton and especially how it's being looked at on wall street. where is the growth? is it just electrification or more? >> no, or i mean, i think -- it's interesting you say that, carlton. i think that sometimes wall street, you know, it's covered by analysts that cover a lot of heavy a machinery, cover heavy duty trucks to some ec e tent. about two-thirds of its sales come from its electrical businesses, and with that set to accelerate, and wall street expects it to accelerate, i feel like a different -- people will start to see it a little bit of a different way, and it can trade not like necessarily a truck stock, but more like a high quality industrial stock. that's a really good point. jack: al root, everyone can see your story on barrons.com. up next, round table members give their investment ideas for the coming week. stay right there. ♪
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♪ ♪ jack: jack, for seven months you and i have been talking about different medical approaches to covid-19, and this week you say you may have seen a bit of a breakthrough. >> well, ben mentioned at the top of the show the president's treatment with regeneron. the president did a video, he does the accordion hands when he gets excited. he says some people call it a treatment, he calls it a cure, and i think his critics were maybe rolling their eyes because, let's be honest, there were things over the summer that the president oversold, right? the malaria pills, the zinc, he said weird things about bright lights and disinfectant. and i think there's a danger that investors might say this is another one of those things. this is not. people i speak with about these antibody cocktails, not just
regeneron, but eli lilly, they say the clinical evidence is very strong, they look very promising. it's too much to call them cures, but they might be the most promising treatments so far, and regeneron has done this before and recently with an antibody cocktail for i bowl that really was a -- ebola that was a breakthrough medicine. jack: carlton, what do you have for viewers? >> i'm looking at retail etf, it's an investment for that cautious investor that wants to make a play on opening up. you'll still get exposure to amazon and best buy and target that have done well and continue -- are expected to continue to do el with, but you'll also get exposure to names like urban outfitter and gap. jack: ben, what's your idea? >> next week's the start of earnings season, all the big banks reporting, but i like goldman sachs. i think the estimates there look low. and they had some regulatory issues with capital ratios last time around that are probably solved. looks like it's one that could beat or go higher.
jack: goldman does well in volatility, and volatility is something we can expect. jack, ben, carlton, great ideas, thank you. to read more, check out this week's edition of barron's. stay healthy, wear your masks. we'll see ♪ >> from the fox studios in new york city, this is maria bartiromo's "wall street." maria: happy weekend, everyone. welcome to the program that analyzes the week that was and helps position you for the week ahead. coming up, my wide-ranging and first on fox interview with president trump. we are going to talk with the president in his first interview since having recovered from the coronavirus. just three weeks until the election, the president will join us, coming up. where things stand on stimulus, the declassify caution of documents and a lot more. stay with us.