tv Barrons Roundtable FOX Business October 17, 2020 10:00am-10:30am EDT
if you're not alarmed by thats prospect, then the menace that we face is even greater. that's it for us this week. for the latest updates, follow me on twitter, facebook and instagram. i'll be back next week right here on "the wall street journal at large." thank you very much for joining us. ♪ ♪ jack: welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead. i'm jack otter. coming up, how investors should position their portfolios ahead of the election and how a trump the or biden win will affect the markets. and later, we ask can some of the country's most successful money managers where they think markets are heading. we've got the results, and that may be surprising. we begin, as always, with what we think are the three most important things investors should be thinking about right now. the stock market zig zagged this
week as traders rotated in and out of sectors. and amazon prime days kicked off an unusual holiday shopping season with retailers adapting to the challenges of the covid-19 crisis. which companies will benefit? apple unveiled its new iphone 12. will 5g drive a phone sales super cycle? my colleagues, ben levisohn, carlton english and jack howe. ben, let's start with you. mr. market is sometimes described as manic depressive, but this week it was more sort of schizophrenia that we saw. what's going on? >> yeah. it was just a very indecisive market. there were days when investors flocked to tech, and other days the nasdaq went down, other parts of the market went up. it really just depended on the news of the day. early in the week we had plenty of things that could have caused the market to sell off including drug trials at johnson &
johnson, eli lilly for covid treatment being halted, and we also saw, you know, cases of covid rising. but the market actually pulled through all that and even got some good news from pfizer. but it really, it was almost as if the investors were playing with a rubik's cube and just kept turning their portfolios and buying this and buying that and trying to figure out what they were supposed to own and couldn't do it. thankfully, they didn't chuck it in the corner and just walk away. jack: that's what i would probably do if you gave me a rubik's cube. everything you just mentioned was an outsized stimulus. there's a disease that no one really has too much control over, then there's, of course, stimulus, there's the fed. but sometimes that makes investors nervous. they want to look at fundamentals. so if you dig inside the stock market, really the earnings and so forth, what are they telling you? >> they're looking pretty good. i mean, i think the best case was jpmorgan. the stock didn't react well to the news, but when you look at the numbers, they grew earnings 4% over a year ago.
so despite everything that's going on, they're able to grow their business. and that's pretty impressive. and i think you'll see a lot of companies beating earnings forecasts, and hopefully offering guidance for the fourth quarter that's pretty good as well. and if that happens, i think we can feel pretty comfortable about the stock market continuing to go higher. jack: we also saw a nice retail sales number, and, carlton, for so many years we've been saying that the american economy is being carried by the consumer. how much longer can that last. well, it seem to be lasting -- seems to be lasting, maybe as people who kept their jobs, they're not going on vacation, a lot of things they're not spending on, but they are going on amazon.com and spending money on prime day. >> they absolutely are doing that. and also i know halloween isn't over yet, but the holiday shopping season is underway. as you mentioned, amazon held its prime day earlier this week, and that's look dogging to be the looking to be the kickoff. this puts pressure on targets,
walmarts, other big box retailers to spread out their holiday shopping season especially because black friday not going to look the way that the it has in previous years. so we're going to see this surge in online shopping. last year it accounted for about 14% of spend. this year salesforce predicts online shopping will see about 30% of shopping spend. and that's because fewer people want to go into the stores, expect stores themselves, you know, they want to be careful about having too many people all at once. jack: so this week barron's is right about i ebay. it kind of got left behind. why do we find it interesting? >> so ebay, it has actually done pretty well this year, and it had some activist investors in it earlier. it sold some non-core businesses and, you know, it's had a runup this year. but it's still trading pretty cheaply at about 15 time earnings where you have etsy trading above 70 times. ebay is in that mode of
reinventing itself, it wants to be that place where shoppers can come for electronics, message to probill ya, you know, synthesizers, things like that. it's trying to have this rebirthright now. jack: so if ebay is the least sexiest stock, jack, probably one of the sexiest stocks is, obviously, apple. big news this week with the iphone 12. what do you make of it? >> thanks for coming to me for the sexy story, jack. i don't know how super-cycley i'm feeling about this one. apple's a world class wooer, but the big selling point here supposed to be 5g. that's, you know, very fast mobile service. the problem is a lot of people aren't really mobile right now. we're working at home off of wi-fi, and the networks are not so ready right now. they need, like, another year, the carriers, to get their act together. so it's kind of an open question. you know, there's a forecast out there for $150 billion in iphone revenue, that's the
consensus. i would call that a sort of super cycle. it's up nicely from the last couple of years. the low end is $143 billion, that would be a slumper cycle. that would be a big disappointment, and the high end is $178 billion, that would be a super duper cycle. the carriers have been very aggressive with the subsidies they're offering on these phones, much more so than in past years. i think there's plenty of chance for a big number. i don't think wall street has any idea, and the stock up to 30 time earnings four years ago. jack: yeah. that's pretty expensive, and you going to find few places today at least where you can use 5g. >> and you guys won't know how cool i am because you won't be able to see me with a new phone. [laughter] jack: thanks, jack. how would a biden win affect the markets? markets? pimco's libby cant
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♪ jack: election day is less than three weeks away. will the outcome affect your investment portfolio? how will a blue wave affect the economy? joining me now, pimco's head of public policy, libby cantrill. libby, great to have you with us. you definitely have one of the most interesting jobs in finance right now. one of the fears heading into november was that election day could come and go, we might not know who won the presidency, it could even be weeks before we get a result, and in the worst case, people actually fear violence. you say the markets are sending some signals that those worst case scenarios may be less likely. >> that's exactly right. equity soling tilt had been
elevated, indicating that the markets were pricing in an election outcome that you may not know until certainly not on election night, but maybe for several days of after or even several weeks. and there was some indication that markets were pricing in an elevated chance of a contested election. fast forward to today, they really are pricing that in, still some elevated volatility around the actual election but not necessarily the expectation that there is going to be a contested election, and for good reason from our perspective. specifically, because many of the battleground states actually process and count ballots weeks before the election day which means that they will likely be able to report on election night. so we may know the results of florida, of ohio, of arizona and, big battleground states actually on election night. and as a result, the market actually may have a good sense of who actually won the white house which is the reason why a lot of the el elevate elevated
ec by few volatility has receded. jack: as far as what we actually find out on that night, you have studied two scenarios. one is the blue wave, the other is if trump wins and the republicans hold the senate. you think it's unlikely that there would be a split between the white house and the senate. why is that? >> yeah. just in terms of, you know, for better or for worse, the american electorate has become much more polarized, much more part sanctioner as we all know. and that has -- partisan, as we all know, and that has led to much less vote splitting, ticket splitting in terms of different parties. and actually the 2018 midterms you said ticket splitting at its absolute lowerrest meaning that usually people just vote for the same party down ballot -- jack: now, what -- i do want to ask, the republicans are often seen as more investor-friendly. what to you' the market pricing in now? >> yeah.
the market has been, i think, has gone through different feeling, different emotions about what a democratic sweep would look like. and i think, you know, several weeks ago there was really the fear of increased corporate tax rate, increased individual taxes, that could actually be a headwind from an economic growth perspective, but the market's pivoted over the past few weeks, and now the focus really is on additional stimulus. almost romanticizing this democratic sweep scenario and, you know, with an increased chance of stimulus not only in terms of covid relief, but also infrastructure and other sources of spending. so in some ways, they're a little bit schizophrenic. it's gone from fearing the democrats to almost wanting the democrats, again, because of the prospect of additional stimulus. jack: the word schizophrenic has describing investor activities.
under a biden win, what sectors do you think would do well? >> they line up in terms of husband policy priorities. his policy priorities. construction, home building will likely do well with a big infrastructure bill, tax incentives for first-ing time home buyers. we'll likely see, and we've already seen it, renewable energy do very well, hospitals do well as the affordable care act is put on more firm footing and also states and municipal ities because we know democrats are going to prioritize spending there. this is one lesson from the financial crisis that states and cities really lagged in terms of economic growth. they're a big employer of about 13% of non-farm payroll. so really prioritizing them in terms of funding. and better credit but also likely muni bonds would do well with the anticipation of higher tax rates. to those sort of, kind of the winners in terms of a democratic
sweep. jack: trump sectors would be what? >> status quo, kind of status quo policy. maybe you see a small infrastructure bill, again, kind of a tallwind for construction and home building, but also probably financials and technology and also pharmaceuticals with the assumption that we may see a bill under biden i would never come to fruition under trump. jack: libby cantrilling thank you so much, really appreciate it. >> thank you. jack: coming up, what do high-level money managers really think about the economy and where it's going? the results of barron's big money poll. it's good stuff, that's next. ♪ [ thunder rumbles ]
♪ ♪ jack: twice a year barron's surveys a group of high-level money managers to find out where they're looking for investment opportunities. we call it the barron's big money poll. oppenheimer invest. chief investment manager john stolfus participated and joins us now. 33% were neutral, that's more bullish than in recent years, but nearly 95% think the market either fairly valued or overvalued. and maybe the most useful statistic for long-term investors is that nearly 9 in 10 are expecting single-digit returns over the coming decade. that is well below the returns we've seen in the past ten years. john, are you still bullish e on stocks? >> jack, indeed i am still bullish after this long run. i think the evidence is in
resilience in economic data and the fact that many companies are doing much better than expected navigating these rough waters as a result of their ability to deploy technology. whether it is to manufacture goods, deliver goods or provide services. jack: we just heard from libby cantrill on how pimco preparing for the election. of our, the people we surveyed, 56%, i think, said joe biden would win. last year, four years ago they thought clinton would win, so i don't know if that's a good gude. but are you doing anything to prepare for the election? >> you know, we are holding in the place our positions related to cyclicals over defensives. and in our approach, we want to own technology, industrials, consumer discretionary. and our contrarian pick, financials. when it comes to the economy, we think it's all about -- when it comes to the market, we think it
really comes down to you have to look at policy at the federal reserve and economic performance. so we think whichever party wins, we think we're going to have a fairly good market as we get covid in the rearview mirror and we begin to see the processes of moving towards a sustainable economic recovery stateside. jack: you mentioned the industrials. what appeals about that sector when everybody else focused on sexy technology companies? >> jack, industrials to us are the new technology. we love 'em. it's the internet of things whether it's the conversation a jet engine has with a central database or whether it is a pallet that has sensors on it that comment on where the pallet9 is located, what the contents of the pallet are or whether it's a vehicle that's able to let its owners know is it well maintained, does it need
an upgrade, does it need servicing. jack: i know that carlton has a question for you. youal like one of her favorite sectors. >> yeah. so one of the sectors that has been unloved has been financials, and i think we saw evidence when the big banks reported this week and didn't get much love. where do you see promise in the bigbags where maybe -- big banks where maybe other investors do not? >> well, when it comes to financials, we think they're going the get their day once we get some kind of more traditional steeping of the yield curve. -- steepening of the yield curve. but if we can just get to a point where we feel more comfortable about safety related to covid, which would likely mean once we get a vaccine of good efficacy and adaptability, we think we'll return to a more normal economy. in the meantime, investors are worried that if covid sticks around longer than expected and the economy suffers as a result
of that, that banks might experience nonperforming loans, and they might have to -- the fed might force them to raise the reserve requirements. we don't think that'll happen. so we think positioning now, they're cheap on a price to boog basis, and a good number of them are highly attractive including some of the names that reported this week. jack: i think jack howe -- >> hey, john, this is jack howe. i want do you about bonds. a lot of our big money poll folks say take money out of bonds, put them either in cash or more stocks. but what if i'm too stingy to sit in cash and too chicken to put more money in stocks? you like convertible bonds. is that the answer? what do you like about convertibles? >> yeah, jack, what i like about convert bls is they're a hybrid. they can provide you with a stream of income, they function much like a bond in the sense
that improved economy, improved credit ratings will be good for the price of the bonds. and on the other hand, they're also a play in terms of the convertibility factor within the convertible. so there might be a point down the line when the holder of a convertible bond could exchange it for equities at an attractive rate. jack: thanks very much, john, not a well known asset class but certainly useful. i also need to point out that john stolfus is part-time professor at nyu, and he has his students read barron's, and for that we love you. >> yes. love bay ron's -- we love barr ron's. jack: up next, round table member gives their pick for the coming week. stay right there. ♪ ♪ ♪i wanted more from my copd medicine, that's why i've got the power of 1,2,3 medicines with trelegy. the only fda-approved, once-daily 3 in 1 copd treatment. ♪ trelegy ♪ the power of 1 2 3
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♪ ♪ jack: so, jack, it has been a bizarre sports season. we had the stanley cup in september, tuesday night football which is not really a thing, we had no thursday night football. you have found an area of the sports world where everything worked pretty much according to plan. >> yeah. basketball was able to reopen in disney world, finish out the season with no covid outbreak, which i find remarkable. disney's doing something right. maybe we should declare the rest of america part of disney world. i'm just spitballing. one concern with basketball is that the television viewership was way down. i was wondering if that was having to do with streaming. i spoke with mark cue barnes he's a dot.com bazillion their and owner of the dallas mavericks. one reason was because the season got scrunched at the end of the year with football and baseball and the elections, a lot of competition.
he remains quite bullish on the sport. jack: thanks, jack. i want to ask each panelist for one actionable idea, and i know carlton's idea will do quite well whatever happens to sports. >> yeah. so i'm looking at netflix. it reports results next week x. what got me looking at it was this buzz over the show called emily in paris. people watched it and talked tons about it. the appetite for content is there, netflix has more with the crown next month. stock certainly has run up recently, but i do think it's a good long-term play. jack: and ben's idea goes nicely with netflix. >> it is. it's yum brands. the stock reports earnings in two weeks, and it's been trading in the range for a while now, but it's now probing the top of that range. the company trades cheaply as a sum of the parts, and if it can get pizza hut working, the stock really could be undervalued. jack: thanks a lot. jack, or carlton, ben, all great
ideas. thank you. to ed read more, check out this week's edition at barron's.com and follow us on twitter. that is all for us. stay safe, wear your mask, and we'll see you next week on "barron's roundtable." ♪ ♪ >> from the fox studios in new york city, this is imlar bartiromo's "wall street." maria: happy weekend with, everyone. welcome to the president obama helps position you -- helps position you for the week ahead. coming up, my interview with the c or fo of johnson & johnson, joe wolk is here, the drugmaker halting vaccine trials earlier in the week. i'll is ask him about that and the company's quarterly outlook. then later, i'll speak with ceo john mackey on the rise of online grocery shopping and where retail heads next. but first,