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tv   WSJ at Large With Gerry Baker  FOX Business  October 31, 2020 9:30am-10:00am EDT

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business. join us every weekday. and check out my new book in stores right now, "the cost: trump, china and american revival." hope you'll pick it up. thank you so much for joining us this weekend, have a great rest of the weekend, everybody. i'll see you e a a a a again ne. ♪ ♪ ♪ gerry: welcome "the wall street journal at large." days to go now until voting ends in the 2020 election and just a few more days for the media to maintain its protection around joe biden, insuring nothing could possibly interfere with his right to be elected president. the last few months we've witnessed the completion of the transformation of most news organizations into well-financed, highly-engaged tools of the democratic party. still refusing to mention the revelations about hunter biden, his plans for a lucrative family deal with a chinese company.
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remember this gem from a couple of weeks ago? [inaudible conversations] >> one vanilla, one chocolate. but i wanted to get what we call black and white, but we're going to -- [inaudible] gerry: withering questioning. this week there was this shocking expo is say from from e new york times." how the candidate is dealing without being warm and friendly to people because of the coronavirus. helping a candidate over the line will, in fact, be successful. later we'll talk to a couple of pollsters. but first, encouraging news on the economy this week even as coronavirus causes continue to rise and fears grow of another lockdown. gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 33% in the three months through september. now, of course, that followed the dedecline of more than 30% in thes previous quarter.
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arithmetic tells us that doesn't mean it's back to where it was. in the final days of the campaign, both candidates talked about their economic plans. joe biden insisted he would take measures to keep the virus under control without hurting the economy. >> it's a patriotic duty, for god's sake. i'm not going to shut down the economy. i'm not going to shut down the country, but i am going to shut down the various. my plan create 18.6 million good paying jobs, 7 million more than he's going to be able to create if he got elected. and a trillion dollars more in economic growth. gerry: it's not clear how you do that. we've seen the damage that lockdowns do to the economy this year. lockdowns over the coming winter will kill off many, many thousands of small businesses and others. president trump has said he wants us to live with the virus and to keep the economy moving. this week he was touting his
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record of job creation. >> we want to insure that more products are proudly stamped with the phrase, that beautiful phrase, made in the usa. we are going to deliver record prosperity, epic job growth. we're doing it already. 11.4 million jobs over the last few months. there's never been a time in our history where we've put that many people the work that quickly. gerry: but there's risk in everyone sizing the economy above all things too. if the virus hits hard, the i economy will suffer in any case. so what can we expect if president trump is reelected on tuesday? can we continue to see jobs and see a quick recovery as we have been? before the virus hit, the trump administration was waging a trade war with china. is that going to continue? and what about trade with other countries? joining me to discuss all this is white house trade adviser peter navarro. if i may start, 40 years ago ronald reagan famously asked the question of the american people, are you better off today than you were four years ago? so let's start with that. as americans are voting at the
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moment, can you tell us, are they better off today than they were four years ago? >> they're certainly better off today than they were during the obama/biden administration. as of january 2020. that's kind of the normal benchmark, i think, that's fair to use. we had the lowest unemployment rate in history, blacks, hispanics doing well, blue collar workers' wages were rising. what we're in now is a war, it's a war against a deadly virus that came from communist china that they deliberately let go around the world. we're fighting that. but i can tell you this, we're -- people are going to be a lot better off under the economic policies of president donald j. trump than they would be if joe biden wins on november 3rd, and i think that's the kind of discussion that might be useful to have in terms of comparing and contrasting those policies. gerry: well, let's talk about that. joe biden wants to put in place
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a stimulus, a big stimulus plan, a lot of spending, the green new deal, various other things, raise taxes on corporations, and he wants, he says, to get the economy moving again, and he will do it. and the markets seem the like the fact that there's a big stimulus coming. what would a trump administration do to get the economy moving again e? >> well, first of all, we know obama/biden have a track record. we had the weakest recovery since the great depression. we had stagnant wages. it wasn't a lot of fun, that new normal. you remember that. what i'd like to do is explain, we have these five points in the policy compass that are all growth drivers. we believe that all job creation local. so if you go, for example, with a big difference between biden and trump, defense spending. biden cut it 16%. we have raised it dramatically. now, what does that mean in
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terms of economics and politics? if you go, for example, in an around across the battlegrounds, scottsdale's got a healthy aerospace. forget about that, they're going to get hurt by joe biden. if you go to michigan, sterling heights makes the is striker. they would be hurt. wisconsin makes in oshkosh combat vehicles. if you go to pennsylvania, philly shipyard, defense spending would be strong, and we'd have growth from that -- gerry: i'm sensing a pattern in to those states that you're identifying. i'm just teasing. all swing states. >> kind of interesting, those swing states actually are the manufacturing states which is why i get involved in that. it's really, i mean, that's where we won it last time, and it was on this issue. but if you look at the other things, if you looked at deregulation, for example, you go to minnesota, we want strategic mining dominance just like we have now strategic
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energy dominance. we have the largest untapped reserves of copper, nickel and cobalt in the world in eastern, northeastern minnesota. obama/biden wrote regulations to prevent their extraction. we'd love to turn the iron range there which is now prosperous into a cop el and nickel range. -- copper and mix el range. these are the types of policies that are going to matter. maine, one of the poorest states in in the union, they're hard scrabble people, they work hard. after the trump tax cuts, within two years the average median household income, real, went up 25%. if joe biden takes away the trump tax cuts, what's going to happen to the people in maine? is so i think it's, this election should be about the economy. if it is, it should be about policy. donald trump clearly trumps joe biden on this. gerry: let's talk brief lu, if we could, because we're running
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out of time, about china. you've spent a lot of your time dealing with trade policy the last four years, china if particular, taking a much more aggressive approach than previous administrations have. at the end of the four years, peter, china is emerging quite strongly. china's recovering more strongly from the coronavirus than anybody else. i'm wondering, as you look back on the last four years if you're going to come out of this thinking, well, actually, china emerged stronger from the last four years than it did when it was going in. >> china emerged stronger, maybe, since they infected the entire world with the chinese communist party virus. gerry, let us never forget that that virus was spawned there, they hid it for two months, they locked down their people and transportation, but they let hundreds of thousands of chinese nationals go around and seed and spread the world. and i wonder as time goes on as i see them exploit this crisis
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to take hong kong, to screw the people in she can jang province, to basically extend their strategic dominance whether that was intentional or not. i don't know if it was intentional to create the virus, but i sure wonder whether they unleashed that thing in order to do exactly what you're saying they're doing. that bill's going to come due if president trump gets elected. if joe biden gets elected, hey, he's going to do what he did for 47 years, lay down for china. and never mind all that stuff on hunter biden's laptop because he's in the bag. gerry: we've got to go, but thank you very much for that very robust approach that you've taken. [laughter] thanks very much for joining us. my next guest has been un. >>. ing the numbering d -- crunching the numbers, and he predicts a donald trump victory. he'l non-valvular afib can mean a lifetime of blood thinners. and if you're troubled by falls and bleeds, worry follows you everywhere. over 100,000 people
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gerry: we are just a few days out from what we used to call election day, and the race is coming
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down, as usualing to a few -- as usual, to a few key states. trafalgar group are showing a trump lead in swing states like florida, michigan and north carolina and a narrow margin between the candidates in wisconsin and pennsylvania. but the real clear politics polling averages of all the polls tell a different story with a clear biden lead in those battleground states. i my next guest says there's a hidden trump vote that isn't being reflected. joining me now is that trafalgar's chief pollster. thanks for joining us. most of the polls seem to be showing anywhere between a small and a solid biden lead in all of those key swing states, florida, pennsylvania, wisconsin, michigan. can you explain what it is that you think is going on? >> well, or you know, i hate to start off the program agreeing
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with michael moore, but i think i have to. i mean, michael moore came out today and is talking about the fact that people support trump tend not to want to talk to pollsters, and that is exactly what i've seen. people are hesitant to go on record and to say where they are. the people have been chastised, people have been, you know, cancel culture and all this stuff that's going on. and people are kind of keeping their politics to themselves. and they're being very much undersampled, and especially the way these polls are done. with a live call, you have what's called the social desirability bias which is the tendency of a person to give an answer that they think will look, have them look best in the eyes of the person asking the question versus the actual truth. gerry: pollsters say they've corrected that, a a lot of them do internet polling, they saw they've corrected for that, and they've got these numbers right
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this time. you still think there is a very significant undercounted trump vote in these polls. >> well, if they had it corrected, then explain 2018 in florida which was pretty much the only race in 2018 where there was a hidden vote, and we got it right again. i don't think they've corrected anything. gerry: just looking at the details of one of your polls, a florida poll, looking at the details of that poll and break it down, one number jumped out straightaway. you show trump getting 27% -- >> 27. gerry: 27% of black voters in florida. i think a lot of people find that quite hard to believe. how do you explain that very, very large -- i mean, overall what did he get last time, 8, 9, 10%? >> we had him around 11. but, yeah, absolutely. it was a trend. it started last week. i think it started with the story from 50 cent, and then it continued new the debate where he said -- he spoke for the first time to a bipartisan
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audience at the debate, and a lot of black voters got to hear the things that trump has been telling anemia conservative media for months, and that's all the things he's done. what we saw, interestingly enough, we're in all these different states, and we saw a complete almost doubling of the black support in north carolina, pennsylvania, michigan, minnesota, arizona, north dakota. i mean -- nevada, i mean, just all of a sudden the undecideds and the people who were saying they were going to vote for somebody else, they all just fell away, and the black vote stabilized. i said on twitter that these shy trump voters aren't so shy number. and at the same time, rasmussen -- totally different operation doing a national poll -- sees the black support for the president, approval rating, tick up ever day of the same week. so i think it's more than a one-off. gerry: sorry we didn't have more time. coming up, another pollster, but this one thinks donald trump should start packing his bags.
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she's predicting a landslide vi derriere discomfort. we try to soothe it with this. cool it with this. and relieve it with this. but new preparation h soothing relief is the 21st century way to do all three. everyday. preparation h. get comfortable with it.
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♪ muck. gerry: can we trust the polls? the well, a majority of presidential polls show joe biden in the lead heading into election week, there are reasons to doubt the numbers. if you recall, those predictions didn't pan out in november of 2016, but senior adviser to the lincoln project says it's time to believe them. she's not just predicting a clear biden win, she's saying the democrats will take the senate and pick up seats in the house. rachel, thank you very much for joining me. >> thank you very much for having me. gerry: as we saw in 2016, the polls particularly in the key swing states got it wrong. donald trump won. why shouldn't we think, be as skeptical this time as we should
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have been then? >> yeah. anyone not watching this should read the a market watch article, but those 2016 polls were sending a very clear tour alarm that experts missed. and that fire alarm was the double or even triple amount above normal of voters who were undecided leading into election day. usually in presidential elections it's only, you know, 5, maybe 8% of voters who can't decide between the two party nominees. and in this 2016 cycle, we were seeing numbers well above 10% not only in the national polls, but in the swing state polls. and so what the narrative should have been all the way across the board was that because so much of the vote was unsettled, it really could have broken either way. and as you well know, that was not what the narrative was, and the forecasting models were not
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specified in a way to account for that uncertainty. so i was not an expert at the time, so i can't say whether i would have seen it, i just know that i saw it in my postelection diagnostic e. gerry: what's different this time, rachel? why should we think these polls that show a slightly larger biden lead in these states are going to be right this time? >> yeah. there's a few adjustments this time. and if there is a bias, it's likely to be against biden, actually, because what pollsters are doing this time, most likely overcorrecting for what happened in 2016 which was to underestimate trump's support. and that was by underweighting or underrepresenting non-college are educated voters in their samples, right? so one of the most, you know, common features of polls today is a very robust sample of non-college educateed voters.
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so we really are seeing that as a common feature today of polls. and then the other real difference though is that voters have been very settled, you know, very, very settled even since mid summer as to who they're going to vote for. there are undecideds, ors but it's that normal 6 or so percent, and that is what we would typically see in a presidential -- gerry: we've just been showing on screen a succession of the real clear politics average, north carolina, ohio, pennsylvania, all showing a small biden lead or in some cases freedom of speech is
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♪ ♪ gerry: to close this week, a somber reminder of the importance and sometimes the price of free speech. on thursday in nice, france, an islamist terrorist murdered three catholics at a cathedral, slitting their throats and shouting god is great as he did so. the murder earlier this month of a 47-year-old middle schoolteacher who was beheaded in a paris suburb by another islam mow-fascist for the crime of teaching his students the importance of religious tolerance. after he'd shown his students cartoons of the prophet muhammad, some of the parents complained, and an 18-year-old chechnyan man butchered the teacher in the street. after the murder, a number of
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muslim leaders around the world calm out in full-throated condemnation not of the terrorist, but of the french government for supposedly creating a climate of islamophobia but refusing to outlaw speech they deem as insulting and blasphemous. the former prime minister of malaysia said muslims have the right to, quote, punish france by killing millions of french people. that was just after the latest attack at the church in nice. now, to its great credit, the french government is refusing to bow to this intimidation. emmanuel macron has said muslims must abide by the standards and laws of the country. in france, free speech is now a matter of life of and death. but even here in the united states, there are people willing to use intimidation at least to stop others from saying things they don't want to hear. we should all stand9 with the french and remember how precious and how fragile our freedoms can be. well, that's it for us this week. be sure to follow me on twitter,
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facebook and instagram, and be sure to be watching fox business on november 3rd for election night coverage. i'll be back next week right here on the "wall street journal at large." thanks for joining us, and have a happy hallowe ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ jack: welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead. i'm jack otter. analysts expect a trump win to affect the markets differently from a biden win. we'll give you the stocks we think do well regardless. but we begin with what we think are the three most important things investors ought to be thinking about right now. stocks stumbled on uncertainty about the election and worries about the rising number of covid cases. when will anxiety subside? the

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