tv Barrons Roundtable FOX Business October 8, 2021 9:00pm-9:31pm EDT
cannot fill the spots, everyone got so much free money the workers are not coming and it's a big problem. >> the benefits are over now. >> joe contra, jessica tarlov think it's much for joining us for that's it for us this week will be back next week with more interviews at wall street are not large. thank you have a great weekend. barron's roundtable sponsored by ♪ ♪ >> welcome to barron's roundtable we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead. i am jack otter. hedge fund manager dan niles will give his predictions. and later what do the battles in washington mean for your portfolio? we will ask david drew. we begin as always with what we think are the three most important things investors
ought to be focused on right now. stark spent the week climbing back from a steep drop on monday but when they shrug off lower than expected jobs report. big bank support third-quarter earnings paid next week is the upside for financials. and investing the space race is heating up as william shatner prepares for a real spaceflight on traffic basis blue origin. on the barron's roundtable my colleagues. then, it really interesting. we had a disappointingly low jobs number come and print out expected bond rally on the theory is one of the weirder job reports we've seen in quite a while. we had just 194,000 jobs created in september that is well below what had been expected. but the unemployment rate dropped that was a big drop itself. then the household survey
which is where we get that unemployment number sun increase of five or 26000 jobs. so the numbers looked weak there's a lot that suggest maybe it was not as weak as it appeared. that could mean the fed will still go ahead and announce the tapering in november. and that content it makes sense. >> what is this mean for the stock market? >> it's the kind of move value investors have been hoping for. if they rise and for good reasons must economic stocks benefit will growth stocks will lack for that's was how the dow jones industrial average outperformed the nasdaq on friday. next we've got a whole other earnings coming up what you look at? >> first i want to save the companies are seeing part because this data has been so odd we want to see how things are playing out for the
companies but were getting some really good ones on monday at the distributor of industrial fasteners it's kind of an industrial delta airlines and of course will get the banks. >> the banks, your favorite sector. they like those rising rates, what are you looking forward earnings come out next week? >> it's like my super bowl but i get two to four times a year. the enthusiasm for the banks a little bit more muted than we have seen in previous quarters for earnings are expected to dip across the financial sector about 70% year-over-year. a lot of variation between the name. a lot of good news on the bank is mostly baked and by now paris had the loan releases, we have buybacks happening again. we have that continued capitol market activity. investors are really going to be saying what's the next thing that gets us excited about the sector? the sectors up 30% this year s&p about 16 or 17% they're doing pretty okay. >> the charts are pretty nice for sitting on the screen. to who will be doing a little prettier more okay than the others? could you expect good reports
from? >> i think with goldman sach's and morgan stanley were continuing to see the surge in the activity. we expect to see more going into 2022. there will be fantastic for their advisory revenue. they need to do more on the asset-management also good for them. the ones that will be more interesting to watch the ones that have the most to gain would be here at citigroup and wells fargo both considered turnaround stories to some extent. wells fargo is a little bit further along on its transition there. they're going to be looking to say are you guys selling your regulatory issues they'll be also be paying very close attention to their expenses as they do so. >> those of the companies buying for the most improved trophy. beverly let's get to the most fun were going to have in this segment. of course captain kirk going into space. there's lots of other spacesuits but let's start with the william shatner finally getting on a real rocket. >> only going were only a handful of men have gone
before praise flying into space on a blue origin rocket that jeff bezos' space travel company next week i expect to hear were spending and matt damon's to mars. [laughter] there's also some of that rocket news, rocket labs is flying high after announcing a series of contracts. including one with nasa that has some developing a solar sail that basically uses the pressure of sunlight for propulsion and no longer needs rocket fuel. nasa is also part with elon musk x to save the world from an asteroid. this involves crashing a spaceship and do something called a moonlight sometime next year. so you're at now. >> i feel like there is a movie on that one too. i say we are often tough on elon musk questioning whether tesla deserves its evaluation. but in the midlife crisis space race, he is clearly winning. actually orbiting the earth instead of just sending a
rocket at 50 or 60 miles which is nothing to sneeze at. he is certainly winning. how can investors win, beverly? are there actually investable ideas out there? >> there are we have to be careful, state rounded the stocks are volatile. space tourism is a particularly challenging industry. i don't how many billionaires that are the can go into space. but companies like rocket lab have a real differences have measurable results us the way to go if you're looking to play a little space in your portfolio. >> i think with that, beverly we've got to say live long and prosper, thanks guys, tech stocks recovered after a monday route hedge fund manager dan niles that he is still wary, he will explain why that is up next.
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it was a rough week for tech stocks at the sector took a hit on monday but bounced back after reports of a deal the debt ceiling for and where they go from here question a joint may now fund a founder portfolio manager dan niles for thanksgiving so much for coming on the show appreciate. >> is my pleasure jack. >> seems like tech stocks have been on a run forever over the past five years they've returned more than two 100% versus about what had a% for the s&p 500. a lot of great tailwinds view think those tailwinds could turn to headwinds? >> yes i think you have to understand with those returns, the environment they were made and, if you think about the year before the pandemic started, the s&p was up 29% and then the pandemic hits and the s&p was up another 16%. this year with it pandemic
continuing the market is up another 17% on top of that. so either you think the pandemic is three times is good for the s&p, which by the way returns normally 6% a year, then a normal period of time or there's something else going on. that something else is obviously stimulus, that is driven tech stock which is debate on top of the market up even more over that period time. i think when that, you're going to have some real headwinds coming up as you go into the fourth quarter for. >> tech stocks of the long duration investment. if rates rise beget inflation. could be painful for tech and vectors as well, correct? >> absolutely. you're really looking at earnings in the future if you have a biotech company or an electric vehicle company, solar, or what have you with the earnings are out a decade from now, if you are interest
rates are quite a bit higher, then as you discount those ten years of earnings and back to the present date become worth a lot less. tech stocks especially one with a high valuation of no earnings or losing money today, those are the ones that are going to hit the hardest pretty saw that earlier this year of going rates took off your seeing it again obviously in september and into october as the ten year treasury yields are back. i think that's going to get worse because our prediction is ten year treasuries are sitting at 2% or greater by the end of this year the fed starts and taper on november 3. >> that will be quite a run for yields. doing to ask about two specific stocks let's start with facebook it's better than it is a lot of bad behavior in facebook's pass the stock always shrug it off her know that this wall street journal investigation and the whistleblower appearing in front of congress. is it different this time ridge expect the same reaction? >> it is different and yet it is still the same.
it is the same and that you probably remember the whole cambridge analytica scandal. by the advertiser boycotts. at the end of the date facebook numbers were terrific they were better than expected not even worse. you look at this and it's not that different it's more headlines now. what is different is apple put through their, plain english it cuts down on tracking. and so it that actually does go ahead and cause a potentially some issues for the earnings as a blog post about it. and they report their september quarter typically give you some expensive guidance for the next year. typically it will give you a really big number which they can never beat up at the stock acts negatively. generally were more predisposed at these levels versus being negative given the beating it has gotten and the multiple been quite attractive for country growing
revenues close to 40%. >> oligopoly's could be a good business. one company you're really positive on is google. explain that to us. >> google is really a terrific company and that you look at last you had an advertising recession and the company still grew revenues. this sure they're going to grow revenues over 40%. it is a reopening play in the sense they get ten -- 15% of their revenues from areas like hotels, vacations, travel, leisure. as economy across the globe open up is going to be more advertising they should really benefit. if you're only paying two -- three times more market multiple for google versus the s&p that treats about 22 times. so for that growth it's incredibly cheap. it's a big favorite tech stock. >> thanks for that program have 30 seconds left you're known as a tech investor. tell us there actually two other sectors you like better right now in this inflationary environment that you predicted.
>> like your investors go to danaus.com they can read in more detail. energy is a sector we all like to hear that is represented by the xle. no real investment in expanding dirty fuel as they call it. so i think energy prices are going to continue to be strong and thanks to benefit from rates going up and being able to put out loans at a much higher rate per think they're going to do great between now and you're in as well for. >> i will second that endorsement at danaus.com. really interesting stuff great charts. two cute little voice in pajamas i'm guessing those are yours? [laughter] yes those are my twins. >> thanks so much daniel have you back soon. >> thank you jack. speed on coming up the market reacted to this week's edc debt drama. on why investors ought to be paying attention. ♪ ♪ that's the thing about claims, you see. they don't happen on your schedule.
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♪ ♪. jack: long-term investors usually tune out wrangling in washington, dismissing it as meaningless noise for that is been the right in the past. but barron's cover story this week it makes the case that this time it really is difference during the roundtable fund manager david to ruiz piloted capitol appreciation to consistently market beating returns for thanks for coming on the show again davis great to see you again for. >> my pleasure thanks for having me. >> before we go to you though, beverly y is now the time for investors to pay attention to washington according to the barron story? >> weir sings of the most sweeping legislation that we have seen in generations. with stockstill at record high valuation, interest rates at record lows even tax rates at record lows but everything that's a very sensitive part of the cycle pride that is why we have seen so much volatility recently. so in this week's cover story we talked a lot of fund
managers including david who are bringing some more policy analysis into their investing process. the headline numbers are really big but they are not the whole story whether to 1 trillion, three and half trillion, what you need to know is what is underneath them. savannah got appraiser david when you get one thing out of the way for us to warn beers on the show to not let your political opinion affect your investment decisions but right now we are not talking opinions with deal we are talking bottom line for that start the corporate tax rate democrats propose moving up from 21% to 26.5%, how will that affect companies and are there different sectors that will react differently? >> sure. a couple of things one repeat the actual corporate rate will so closer to 25. the so-called guilty rate jack will probably closer to 15. that's lower than biden had proposed but it's still a four -- 500 basis point headwind with profits next year in terms of sectors with
the exception of utility, most sectors will be equally impacted innate negative away by the increase in tax rates it's a little different than 2017 for 2017 there were some big beneficiary somewhere in the middle and some had no impact. with regard to utilities though that is the one sector where the tax are a pastor for 2017 when rates came down on their savings under the customer. in 2022 tax rates go up it's more likely than not will see them pass on to their consumers, their bill payers if you will. there's a one impact the earnings like it will every other sector. jack: big ben has a question. >> there's so much conflict between china and the u.s. what time will that affect the u.s. corporations doing business over there? >> i think it actually is already, been good question. look at healthcare right now.
you are single really aggressive tenders really big price it decreases and things like pharmaceuticals made by no multi nationals of medical devices you are seeing products price lower at 67 -- 80% if not more. you see some that are profitable become unprofitable almost overnight producing chinese government really aggressive. the regulatory perspective in the capitol market perspective whether it's ali baba, you are also seeing more anecdotal discussions where people are talking about the disadvantage relative to the competition. none of these are positive things for u.s. multinationals. carts on a person you perked up when david mentioned utilities. [laughter] >> yes it david you were taught about the tax rate effect on utilities, just curious on the infrastructure spending bill on the renewable energy sources how that could
trickle down to effect utility stocks? >> another good question. i would say this is a trend it's going to be accelerated by the bipartisan infrastructure bill as well as the reconciliation bill. in this country was still produce a lot of from natural gas and coal per think of the next 20 years these bills will really accelerate this transition to renewable. not just getting rid of colbert putting in solar, wind, incremental transmission. possibly and probably potentially transitioning from natural gas infrastructure to hydrogen about ten years down the road. this will bully really positive for utilities not just one or two years but the next ten or 20 years as they go through the transition parade that transitions going to cost a lot of investment dollars and a lot of earnings growth for the sector over the next 20 years but it's one of the reasons i'm relatively
positive on utilities despite the possibility or probability rates may rise in the very short term. >> i fear we should lay but leave it there this is your three-page. were going to have to have you back a fourth time soon to talk about some of the other issues for thanks much for coming on. >> my pleasure thanks for having me. >> they give their ideas stay right there ♪ limu emu & doug ♪ got a couple of bogeys on your six, limu. they need customized car insurance from liberty mutual so they only pay for what they need. what do you say we see what this bird can do? woooooooooooooo... we are not getting you a helicopter. looks like we're walking, kid. only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ the new sensodyne repair and protect
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>> the water was so dead that the water. i got so bad i was think i should have pull out of dollars and put into bitcoin but i'm glad i did and presented some of the dollar index has gained 5% of its pretty solid game you talk about currencies. i think it's largely because no one really expected the covered recovery to get so complicated. do not be surprised at the dollar keeps going higher per despite all the problems the potential of the massive debt the u.s. has a stronger economy and higher bond yields on the rest of the world but that should make the dollar quite attractive. it's been a think are low there even lauren japan and europe. who gets hit the hardest by this? >> you have to look at the companies that do the most business overseas. that is really staples and tech. it forces them to take their dollars and are being converted for weaker currencies. to update booze that includes
the maker of motion and control technologies one hammer in the tech coffin let's move on to actionable ideas we've got two interesting ones today. start with you carlton your tongue but something spoke earlier in the shewbread. >> yes i have a bit more to say about banks. bank of america solid franchise has the most benefits environment there could be reports later in the cycle. that's a month or so later i like to pay close attention to the call if there's potential for upside too. >> it could be jamie dimond overtaking morgan is such a great salesman sexy oxygen away. [laughter] beverly what your idea.
>> speaking of yields i think it's a good time socially high yield communities. they have more on a tax basis for much less risk. they're going to be even more than. >> great idea guys thanks so much. to read more check out this week's edition of barron's.com for don't forget to follow us on twitter that's at barron's online for that's all for us will see you next week on barron's roundtable. ♪ ♪ collects from the fox studios in new york city at this is the marie bartiromo wall street. maria: happy weekend all parade that analyzes the week that was an helps position you for the week ahead. i am maria bartiromo. a wild week of triple digit swings as markets digest washington's debt debate and another disappointing jobs report. cornerstone map is here joining me on where things go from here. plus, dumping the democrats, andrew yang