tv Barrons Roundtable FOX Business November 6, 2021 11:00am-11:30am EDT
thank you so much for joining us. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ welcome to barron's roundtable get behind the headlines to prepare you for the week ahead. i am jake back audibly coming up one of wall street's most influential media analyst say the biggest threat to netflix, disney and other media countries maybe apple. later exploding stocks and crypto god while predicting a but belong in your portfolio? how to navigate the weirdness of market in history.
but we begin as always is what we think are the three most important things investors ought to be thinking about right now. the market screws tarp to better-than-expected jobs report card with the market melt up to the end of the year? the vaccine mandate, vaccines for children new highly affected antiviral could we finally put culvert behind us? the market seems to think so. in real estate giant, zillow shut down its business after losing nearly $400 million. what it can tell us about the housing market on the barron's roundtable my colleagues ben, and jack hough. so ben i've got to give you credit. how right they were the markets focus on a real strong jobs number up or even inflation not seem to worrying investors. they dissipated the fed is tapering right now does not
change the fact socialist growth it picks up again as inflation still remains a strong, rates are so low. this just makes it really easy to start buying stocks to keep the market going. companies, despite inflation are still maintaining their profit margin the profit margins are strong, this is a great bird really seems to suggest those fears, we may get the inflation but we are not going get the stag. left back. >> in fact in the second quarter margins were an all-time high at were still pretty close to that level. investors love all this good news about covid, right ben? >> that is right. we had vaccines for children approved, we had pfizer kind of out of the blue sing at, really well. we even had say perhaps covid
is going to stop being a thing come january. the market love this. it was another one of these things are just added to the optimism and the market market to go along with everything else. jack: want to hear about the optimism and happiness up to look for the cloud, what else can go right to push the market higher, anything? >> i think right now is the realization that anyone who is scared out of the market in september by all this talk of corrections and whatnot, they missed nice news off the september low's the market looks like it's going to have not been in for this run have to chase the market higher. >> jack let's unpack the covid news the market seems happy about the antiviral and the kids vaccine. >> her as a whole confluence of factors right now.
we have the white house vaccine mandate by early january companies with 100 or more workers required the workers to get vaccinated or get tested. this is america we will have a culture war about this we will have a couple of months divided into two angry camps and representing each other's views. i'm not a culture or a guy am an investor guy. some workers are going to leave their jobs over this i do not think we'll have a big impact on the economy. some companies will face higher costs because of this. i do not think it will move the needle on earnings. i do think the pandemic begins to fade early next year because of those factors. following cases to begin with and the vaccine and better medicines i am raising my view from cautiously optimistic to in cautiously optimistic. that is we see from investors last week on the show was talked about royal caribbean.
i mentioned people getting back to travel that was up 12% i would pat myself on the back of my suit coat were not too tight. we did see some of the stay at home stocks diet peloton and roku. >> and other news this week an algorithm about 10,000 houses, what could go wrong? >> and nothing. especially are trying to flip those houses because flipping houses is not hard. zillow this week said it is exiting the housing business last about three and $80 million doing so. basically two things went wrong, and cello in this case was a bidding up, buying more aggressively even though we are in an elevated housing market. get that going against them. on the other hand this algorithm did not for inflation, labor shortage all these things up at the cost of doing those renovations higher. profit margins got squeezed and it looks like now a zealot might be selling about two thirds at the house of a discount what it paid one analyst put about 4.5% under what zillow paid for some of
these houses. >> good time to be a buyer in those market. this feels like one of those things, carlton, signifies the top of the market. maybe not, maybe this is a low specific? >> we always get tempted to say hate nothing to see here. it seems like the cello may have bad at doing this. other open door and offer pad is the housing market became elevated they stop the buying as many houses are putting in lower bids and it seemed like zillow was getting much more aggressive. they bought multiples of houses in the third quarter than they did in the second quarter when both people in the states were dialing it back a. >> okay take advantage of this low interest rates still. coming up disney, netflix, apple who is winning in the streaming wars and is there a future for the movie
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surely words are heating up disney and netflix have more competition than ever people like amazon, hulu paramount plus a more who's winning the battle for viewers and bit cap theater operators fight back? join now rich greenfield, thanks so much for coming on the show. it's great to have your insight. so, you have been predicting for years these disruptors would unseat linear television. your kind ahead of the game in that and then culvert only accelerated this trend. so who are the winners now? >> look, i think the reality is every single company in that media ecosystem have realized they have to be in streaming. that the linear ecosystem is
in secular decline. amazing world series, six-game world series still second lowest rating of all time the only lower rated romans during the covid screwed up fall estimate screwed up the length of the season, et cetera. even football. football is doing amazing relative to every other piece of content and its up a couple% from 2019. linear tv is in real trouble. you cannot even name a new successful show on linear tv if i asked you or your friends. it is just falling apart. everyone is shifting their viewing over to streaming. i don't care, look at halloween. people are wearing ted at lasso they're squid game they're wearing richardson costumes no point stalking what was on linear tv. everyone is realizing they have to be in streaming. i think the question us most of the companies are still balancing the new world of streaming without trying to
still maintain a linear tv and movie theater business. it is really hard to have a foot in both the future and the past. jack: you did not have a lot of csi costumes in your neighborhood? >> yet they were a couple cruella costumes i guess there were some carella costumes that was a movie that was on disney plus and in theaters a little bit of that. jack: i agree with you. here's i want to follow up at the all this rush to streaming our people really going to subscribe to all the services? or are we going to see consolidation there? >> it is a great point. obvious that there certainly services dominating time spent. netflix is 20 over a quarter of time spent on connected television is netflix. forget about the time on laptops and mobile devices and all of that. netflix is a dominant force, youtube is number two. look at all these other services it is really hard.
services like a peacock, discovery plus, paramount plus they barely even register in terms of overall public viewership. i think there was a question can they survive? sure. if you cannot spend $100 for multichannel television, state cable, satellite is a lot of dollars to deploy over the services you only deploy those dollars getting back to what i said before most of the services are lightly used. even disney plus, you come from manda laurie and paid less you have kids under the age of 15 or under the age of ten, you are basically going to disney plus once a week when there is a series which is a few times a year. there just isn't that much to keep most people busy on the services. or is on a netflix there is something new every single day. these companies can win it is
just going to require putting all of their resources into their streaming services and is spending a lot more capitol. i think apple is clearly emerging as someone to keep an eye on. amazon just bought thursday night football, they are doing lord of the rings. the tech companies understand it is a warm for time and attention. that media companies don't we see that yet. jack: apple and amazon are the bucks to dig into this but one more question, movie theater some are coming out next year, do people still want to go to the theater parents want to get ralph and the kids and kids want to get away from their parents. people go to the theaters feel there are some movies are certainly better seen in the theater than they are seen at home. i think away before the pandemic there was already a
secular shift away from moviegoing. quality of tv in the home. most of the stuff you see feel cinematic in nature. manda laurie in cost $25 million an episode. god knows what game of thrones prequel will cost on hbo max. the quality of content is getting so good in the home and most movies do not need to be seen in a theater but there will be theater business for blockbusters. coming out of the pandemic is going to be substantially smaller business. this was an 11 billion-dollar u.s. industry before the pandemic less a business on the other side of that. it's probably going to mean restructuring. >> i would love to dig more into your apple thoughts. they have it in screen as well as content. but have to be back on to talk about that. thank you. coming up a shocker, crypto tokens based on the netflix series squid game may have
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crypto's meme stocks a world of finance has never been weirder. bed bath and beyond squid game seemed token cost investors millions and. you wrote this week's barron's this market is a weirdo than anything the financial world has ever seen. that is a high hurdle there's tulipmania, the south sea bubble, howbeit forgotten about the pit stop.com? >> and they did not have any that squid game you are too smart for that. look, tulipmania was an
exaggeration. the south sea bubble was a company that went up tenfold in a year end spawned a lot of issues of dubious quality. that was one stock surrounded it's not anything worth seeing now. the sock puppet was a prophet he is trying to tells.com stocks and when they lead the economy is a couple of decades early and was talking with some of the wrong companies. none of those compare with a bubble of bubbles that we are seeing now. in real and virtual assets but look at crypto currency, as an asset class it is younger than the iphone it is approaching $3 trillion. that is the money supply of the united kingdom. recently a parity dog themed crypto currency for $35 billion. it got passed by a parity of that parity that went to $40 billion before sliding.
that's more than the market value of hershey, which by the way is not a parity of a global chocolate maker it's an actual global chocolate maker, jack. >> all the stuff is pretty scary it really makes me think about going nuts. that's all going to come crashing down. couldn't take hershey and other legit stocks and bonds with that? that could last a couple of years longer than it could be higher highs for some of these things. i picked on the sector or the economy they're not like houses they don't need them for anything. they're pushing these things higher and higher.
definitely you have my full permission to buy something ill-advised. not just anyone this is the bubble of our lifetime. thunder sitting on the sideline huffing and puffing how bitcoin does not have cash flow. but i want you to spend money out of your entertainment budget not your investment capitol. keep it small. please also tell me about your crypto correlation outfits into your portfolio. did not exist a few years ago but let's cool it with the regression analysis by something or uncles cousins friend could go to the moon. [laughter] jack, i do wonder what i look at the market now trading at all-time highs. also looking pretty expensive at that mark two. should it be in traditional markets should be in the stocks? >> don't do it carleton. [laughter] bank of america say stock is expensive enough the s&p 500's point of negative returns
averaging a half a% down per year over the next ten years not great, right? the ten year treasury or does multiple percentage points below the latest reading on inflation. i get it you have to bring our expectation for returns to play down per that is a call for financial nihilism think the stock and bond market with dogecoin over the next decade per think you can look for parts of the market that are relative good deals. cyclical stocks are still attractive. dividend staying stocks are still attractive. for the s&p 500 could grow 5% year of the next decade project that i get it a quick plug, i want everyone to watch our own carleton english on her new youtube show called unboxed. she talks about investments like this show exhibit do not have to endure the rest of us to get to the part blanket and described to the young people
setting. >> thanks much that plug, chakra quick. i've one thought all these people by crypto are kind of young they may never have experienced a crash. try not moralize about there's a lot of wacky stuff summer go to get hurt i think there's a definitely a path from trading trash i am proof of that. >> thanks for that former trader jake howell. give thehe
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>> jack we talked but that medical news that commits the market the reopening is for real side of that coin is the stay-at-home stocks are getting hit. peloton is really been taken to the woodpile part. >> it took a beating part of it is antistate home and trade as people get back out there. there were other problems with the stock. this is been going on for a while per there are competitive pressures that analysts are talking about here. i want to give you an idea what that looks like, jack r. i have a peloton bike it's nice to me like i have a hydro- rower i a r nordictrack incline trainer. i am the baddest guy in america spend that kind of cash on exercise equipment this year. what happens then you end up with three screens in separate memberships i have 500 bucks per machine you're saying to yourself wait a second, why didn't i get three machines in the same company so i could
pay one with peloton it's just a bike company. nordictrack is out there with every kind of machine you can think of it. think there's going to be some people who try to go for multiple the sheets and consolidate their membership bill. twenty-seven i'm trying to figure out why we take financial advice to me after those purchases would build figure that out later printer going to actionable ideas when you do carleton verse for. >> yes i'm take another look at the invesco leisure and entertainment. travel is coming back. the transatlantic core door is opening this weekend. their children were unable to get vaccinated. they thought about coming on board as well. i think travel is really coming back. jack: that sounds convincing, then what do you think coming back? >> i like coco called about
our body armor this week it's only gained about 0.4% during the past three months will pepsi has gained 7.7%. those stocks usually move together but i think this might be time for cook to catch up. does have that sounds interesting thank you ben, thank you carleton all great ideas three more check out the six editions that bear as i calmed up a default on twitter at barron's the courage to make america great again, again. >> from the fox studios in new york city, this is maria bartiromo wall street. maria: happy weekend everyone welcome to the program that analyzes the week that was an helped position of the week for a head. i am maria bartiromo a better than expected jobs report boosting stocks to new heights. coming up the vice chairman of bank of america on what this means for our economic recovery in the market. then, the election that sent a shockwave throughout the country. virginia's republican