tv Maria Bartiromos Wall Street FOX Business November 26, 2021 8:00pm-8:30pm EST
♪♪ from the mountains to the prairies ♪♪ to the ♪♪ god bless america ♪♪ >> from the fox studios in new york city, this is "maria bartiromo wall street". maria: happy thanksgiving everyone. welcome to the program that analyzes the week that was in position to you for the week ahead. i am maria bartiromo. i americans facing surging prices and groceries and gasoline as we kick off the holiday season. supply chain disruption continued to rock markets. david bahnsen will join me on how inflation is taking a toll on americans in the effect of the labor shortage and where you
should invest today. covid-19 changing traditional holiday shopping. mastercard senior advisor will join me have how it's affecting retailers and what to expect. the biggest shopping day of the year has arrived we will tell you how the black friday compared to the past shopping seasons. i'll tell you the top newsmakers on "mornings with maria" in the weeks talkers. maria: peng shuai reemerges over the weekend. >> the ioc making itself part of chinese propaganda holding the phone call releasing solo shot the video saying she is just fine. she would like her privacy. maria: in terms of joe manchin will he hold the line. >> and praying more people like joe manchin and the senator from arizona. i'll tell you what we need to show statements for now in
leadership. to pass this reconciliation bill is totally irresponsible. we are confined very serious inflation in america and we all know the person is a little guy. maria: the communist party is celebrated the 100 year end so is j.p. morgan. i make a bet that we last longer. he said that and a couple of hours he walks back the comments and regrets it. your thoughts? >> look at what message it sends to our markets in the free world if somebody like jamie dimon is backing down to the ccp. we know what they're doing to american companies. that's why many companies like fortnite, like apple are leaving china. maria: let's take a look at where markets ended. a holiday short week lower-than-expected gdp numbers,
for initial jobless claims and still battling the big threat of rising inflation. joining me bonds in group founder and managing partner david bahnsen, the author of the book no free lunch, 250 economic truths. it's great to have you thank you for joining us as we can. >> thank you for having me. >> i view thanksgiving as a kickoff to year end and a look into 2022. how are you expecting this market toward year-end. we have s&p 500 up 25% and 2021. can it continue? >> it is interesting we view it the same way that thanksgiving starts a process of viewing year-end planning and your perspective going into the new year. going into the new year investors have to expect lower returns next year than we've had the last couple of years. a big reason for that is valuations. the starting point. you have a great recovery stuff
that was highly distressed. our two largest sector are energy and financials and they were the two top-performing sectors so far this year. a lot of the recovery trade bounce back from the covid moment has played out but going into 2022 the one they get nothing people can count on is technology to lead the way. you've already seen a lot of the tax names, the work from home type names have gotten creamed from their highs and it still seems to be the recipient of that. i'm very skeptical that that continues next year. maria: especially because we have headwinds in terms of higher interest rate. we don't know who is going to be the overseer of banks which is an important position for that financial services sector. we know jay powell was reappointed this week and lael brainard will be the vice chairman of the federal reserve.
how do those changes affect putting money to work as we expect rates to move higher. the second half of the year, 2022. >> i always like having some contrary opinions and i do think i'm a little different than much of the street on this worried about the fed forced to tighten or take it a bit more hawkish position. i think you should expect hawkish rhetoric. they have to save some of that. but when it comes to action i don't believe it. i don't believe that the fed is all of a sudden going to be the tightness of monetary policy that they were in 2017 and 2018. i see the way the corporate credit market revolted against that has made jay powell very hesitant to go there. our society and governmental spending and corporate spending, housing markets. you mentioned some of the stock market sectors, their very dependent on the very low
interest rates that feed high valuations. i don't think the fed is going to move off of that. what will happen valuations cannot keep expanding so profits grow, margins continue to be quite impressive but at some point i think you'll see out-of-favor sectors surprise people like energy did this year, consumer staples is one that we have our eyes on. maria: what about energy in the year ahead now that president biden has released 50 million barrels of oil from the strategic petroleum reserve. president trump bought all that oil when oil was at $31 a barrel filling of the reserve. but it hadn't had much of an impact on the price since biden made the move. >> markets are incredibly smart and efficient. they know that move was a joke and token and a headline in a press release but it was not substantive to the supply challenges we face with oil and gas in our country.
the fact of the matter is so strategic reserves are for real emergencies and $70 oil is not a real emergency. he was politically driven that has no impact on supply and demand dynamics. the fact of the matter is, energy with the top-performing sector in the first year of the biden of administration and president trump was friendly to the energy sector in the worst performing sector in his administration. markets have a funny way of being very disconnected from politics at times. maria: it is a great point. what do you want to do if you own energy at this point, oil stocks as well. >> i think some of the producers have gotten pretty stretched, they've had great runs and we like a lot of the names but our focus and i talked about this in the past, we like the midstream sector where there transporting the oil and gas. you mention my president trump bought oil at $30 per strategic
reserve, we had no place to store oil during the second third quarter of the covid moment. these companies were able to provide storage facilities as well as transportation. right now we have a huge opportunity to be exporting liquefied natural gas and more safely and environmentally safely moving oil and gas within our country. these are high yield that of improve the financials so we like the midstream part of oil and gas. those that are transporting. maria: what is your take on the macro story. we had really good blowups and retail this week, nordstrom losing a third of the value, a gap losing a quarter of the value. because of weaker than expected quarterly numbers. does this give you any indication of the retail backdrop. i know consumers have a lot of money to spend after pent-up demand during the pandemic but wages are being cut into with
inflation. >> i don't think nordstrom a gap number was systemic. we see a strong appetite for consumer activity. that is a trend that we never bet against. i've never in my adult life seen american consumers unwilling to spend as long as they are able to consumer spending is about credit than is appetite for you people love to buy things in our country. gap in nordstrom's had idiosyncratic problems. other retailers that did well. it had more to do with the story on their own balance sheet, gap in particular is more levered. i'm not an investor in the consumer discretionary space. i don't think i'm good at guessing what teenage girls are going to buy next quarter but the fact of the matter is financially a lot of the stories had a a lot of debt and it's a good time to look to less lever areas we think the leverage is
really played out. maria: is great to see you, thank you so much. >> thank you very much, happy thanksgiving. maria: have a great rest of your thanksgiving weekend. david bahnsen. holiday spending is in full swing despite supply chain shortages in the covid-19 setbacks. what can retailers expect to see what we will talk to mastercard steve sadove when we come back to get his prediction. back in a moment. ♪♪feel like throwing my worries away♪♪ ♪♪as an old native-born californian would say♪♪ ♪♪it's a most unusual day♪♪ ♪♪it's a most unusual sky♪♪ ♪♪not a sign of a cloud passing by♪♪ ♪♪if my heart won't behave in the usual way♪♪ experience the power of sanctuary at the lincoln wish list event. such tree-mendous views. i'm at a moss for words. experience the power of sanctuary
maria: that the demand for goods. supply chain crisis causing major product shortages. how will they fear the season compared to last. joining me senior advisor and mastercard former sac ceo steve sadove. it is great to see you again, thank you very much for joining me. give us the retail climate this
year. >> i think we have a very strong retail environment for the holiday season. the consumer as you said has money in their pockets, their shopping and the retailers are in the seller's position because there's a lack of inventory in the supply chain problem and discounts on blowers and margins are up on a broader base is if you look at third-quarter earnings. i'm looking at a mastercard forecast of a 7.5% growth in the holiday season, 10% in the thanksgiving week. a very strong black friday. it's a good season for retail. maria: what about the inflation component you have price hikes and a number of items from food to apparel and beyond certainly oil and gas 50% of your over year. is that going to cut into these plans. >> that's factored into the numbers if you look at
thanksgiving week forecast of 10% encompassed within that is the accommodation of the supply chain cost increases which reflected pricing and a lower percentage of discounting. this is not a mastercard forecast, i figure in the 5 - 10 percentage point less going on the season the last year. that would reflect higher prices as well. some component of the growth is pricing. maria: let's talk category where you see the most interest in terms of category this holiday season. what are consumers willing to pay up for. >> were in a situation that during the pandemic the growth was clearly in the at home hardware home, home-improvement, grocery, people are buying things and staying home and if they're buying apparel it's at leisure or sweatpants. our impose. gimmick environment, where getting out is what people want to do instead of buying apparel
the buying luxury and jewelry for themselves and gifting. all of the experiential getting out and getting more back to normal are the categories that are doing well. was interesting the categories doing well during the pandemic, they are continuing to do well, it's a little bit of either and opposed to either work. if you look at the numbers coming out of home depot and lows. that shows you that you're still getting strength in those categories but i'm seeing a big uptick in the apparel business, you're starting to see the travel coming back as you open up the international tourism. those numbers are popping, restaurants are killing it. try to get a restaurant reservation in new york, 20 - 30% growth on top of the growth in the restaurant space. maria: i noticed the other night in new york city it is packed once again. what about electronics every year we talked about the digital
in the retail benefiting, gaming as well as the new devices. how much interest there or are we seeing the supply chain disruption cut into business there? >> is a combination of both if you look at the aggregate trends, the very strong were looking at electronics growing in the 25 - 30% growth during the thanksgiving week. very strong about electronics but there being hit by supply chain and availability. you are also getting some timing issues going on because everybody is aware of the supply chain there was a pull forward people by the hot items early, some of this will translate because you can get the item now, you'll see it play out as you go into the early part of the first quarter. i think overall the electronic category continues to hold up well. maria: fascinating stuff, are
there any bargains today? >> a consumer can always find a bargain of some kind, you will see some of the specials for black friday of the world and the holidays. but it's a much more plam promotional environment. retail is always built around attracting customers of a discount, 20% off any department store might be full price selling you'll see a lot of that and you may see some early hot promotions but they're not going to be anywhere near as much as a be seen in the past. this is really about using a little bit of a promotion to get people into the store. what's really interesting people want to go into the store right now. remember during the pandemic digital grew by 50% it went from 12% to 18% now we see people wanting to be into the store. you're not seeing the deep discounts because the consumer traffic and stores are back.
everyone said the store is dead now are seen 80% plus of commerce holding down in the store. maria: really interesting. what about workers 4.4 million people dropped out of the workforce in september. these are incredible numbers as people change their approach to work. you retailers have the jobs and the people to fill the jobs? >> the jobs are certainly there, the issue is whether you can fill them. what are my concerns, as you have so many people coming back in the stores, they want to have an experience and the question is whether or not the stores will get enough labor in the right kind of labor to help the consumer give them the experience that is going to get them to want to keep coming back, labor and availability and providing the environment that the labor wants to stay is critical for retail, you see the wages going up across the board with the retailers.
are the rear retailers creating culture that is going to get the people and employees to stay in the store and work for those companies. that is critical. treating the employees right in a tight labor market is so critical in this period of time because the consumers are going to come back or not come back based upon what kind of experience they had in the store and product and labor in terms of how they treated is critical. maria: that is a great point. it's good to talk with you, thank you for joining me. maria: happy thanksgiving and have a wonderful rest of your weekend. steve sadove joining us, the largest shopping day turns into a month-long affair with early deals rolled out in stores, how does this use black friday compared to last year and past black fridays? we'll take a look next.
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maria: welcome back we heard from mastercard about their expectation for the thanksgiving weekend weekend. staying optimistic about holiday spending. let's go to fox business kelli o'grady is in los angeles today in the center of the black friday shopping spree with a look at what's going on. >> 1,000,008 are planning to go shopping and some of these have been here since 8:00 p.m. last night but they are necessarily finding the discounts they expected. retailers don't have to offer the big sales because you have customers clamoring for that product. i want to give you the taste of what you'll see this we can. buy one get 150% off, that is too good to be true, you have to
get the second one but we need to the math that equals out 25% off when you buy both and when you dig through the chaos you seen some of the big brands like nike and north face are not included in the sales because you have their product stuck in the harbor or maybe it hasn't been produced yet. >> i don't want to be broke. i'm fighting the good deals before cyber monday. >> i'm happy to be out and spending my money that i probably shouldn't spend. >> i didn't think. >> there's been a lot of focus on higher sales with an eight and a half - 10 and a half increase of sales projected versus 2020. most of the increase is due to inflation, consumers have to spend more because things are costing more. big retailers like walmart and target, they were able to target
to get it out of the harbor but they're offering a discount in price matching to reveal the consumers then. take a hit on margin for 60% of consumers getting a deal is a reason why they're choosing a retailer this year and may be able to beat out the competition without strategy. maria: thank you so much, don't go anywhere, more wall street right after this. ♪ at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will work with you on a comprehensive wealth plan across your full financial picture. a plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. this is the planning effect. ♪
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business. start smart every weekday from h "mornings with maria" every weekday here on fox business 6 e you will start your day with us every weekday. that will do it for us this weekend, thank you for being with me, i hope you enjoyed a wonderful thanksgiving with your family and continue the celebrating with friends and family throughout the weekend. i will see you next time. have a great weekend everybody. ♪ ♪ ♪. gerry: this week on the wall street journal at large, more disorder in america. by late crime is rising in many major cities run by democrats as progressive wage war on the rule of law itself. plus kovic cases are on the rise again and in europe lockdowns are back despite the rollout of vaccines. if the u.s. headed f