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tv   Making Money With Charles Payne  FOX Business  January 19, 2022 2:00pm-3:00pm EST

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today. it's a dangerous situation across the united states. david: joe, thank you very much, lieutenant. thank you for being here. i appreciate your wisdom. the dow is down 50 points right now. nasdaq has taken the opposite turn. it is slightly in the green. a lot has to do with rates. of course when rates go up, nasdaq go down, today seems to be opposite at least for now. charles payne is to take you through the next hour when anything can change once again. charles: real tug-of-war, david, real tug-of-war, my friend. thank you very much. i'm charles payne, this is "making money." it is not the stuff of rocky movies but the market showing grit after trying to rally and the two efforts fell pretty quickly. as david said this is all about the fed. this is guessing game, game theory, maybe game over. you know i have the best to unravel the mystery. we'll try to help you make some money. plus if you saw a dodo bird
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today, it might not be mirage. that is because president biden will hold a rare press conference. anything is possible. he has a slate of things to deal with, inflation, legislative losses, covid. what would you ask him? tweet me @cvpayne. i would like to share some of those. surprise the hedge funds are beg the sec note to move forward with market reforms and after the individual frenzy and all the things that went wrong last year. i will ask a former sec attorney if the agency will bow to the big boys and big money once again. i hope not. all that and much more on "making money". ♪ so it is the most popular game in the nation, really this side of wortle. sweepingp up wall street like a tornado. it is fed guessing game. one how many rate hikes will
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they're be? two what will total of all the rate hikes be? three, what will the stock market reaction be? a bonus question, will the fed go too far to wreck everything? to get a handle on these questions we look at history all the time, right? we try to brace for the worst. we try to rationalize everythingwe're not as afraid we want to be. there have been nine years since 1978 the fed hiked rates four more times in a single calendar year. the s&p has been higher seven of those years. beyond what might happen with the stock market in general the more nuanced question what to own with a less accommodative backdrop. what should be in your portfolio. of course cynics see recent gyrations, downside pressure as mini traumas to sort of reward jay powell and company with the sense, hey, you're doing the right thing. you will be absolved from history. don't worry about it. maybe that will soften the blow. lots to think about here.
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let's start with the three of the best thinkers i know. bring in phil blancato gary kaltbaum and chris varrone. there are a couple tables that the market will be fine during a rate hike period. b, overweight in real estate investment trusts ant technology. is still the case? >> charles, great to be here. i think the best we can say we obviously don't know. what we can do we can look back in history. say what happened in prior tightening campaigns. what can we learn from that? what you see is, particularly at the fed begins to go there tends to be emphasis more on quality companies and more on value. so if you pick apart a sector like reits or pick apart a sector like tech it is about focusing on the value components of those groups and one of the things we've seen and we pointed out when real rates rise in particular, right, when real rates rise you begin to see
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value tech, come equipment, tech hardware do better than things like software or high price to revenue type names. i think we're already beginning to see that. within reits means owning more retail reits, reopen reits, avoiding "faang" like names and towers and data centers. i think the market splits two-way, own the more value oriented names in each of those sectors. charles: phil, you've been telling folks to be in financials. here's the thing, we saw jpmorgan and goldman sachs get absolutely hammered when they released their results. this morning bank of america and morgan stanley up nicely on their numbers. so maybe the thing here maybe we should look at banks that actually lend money as opposed to those sort of trading the market, quarter to quarter. that seems to be the differentiator right there? >> you're spot on right. don't get mee wrong i think it's a chance to buy jpmorgan and goldman cheaper but the regional banks is the place to be now. why? they benefit most when rates
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rise. make more money on cash, money center banks, regional banks, they're up 7% on the year. some bigger names are down 5%. so i would say still play with financials. it's a reopening trade. opportunity when rates rise. preventative in the portfolio against a turbulent marketplace. buy the regionals, and pepper with jpmorgan or goldman if they get cheaper. they will win when rates rise because they get paid on the cash in their portfolios. regional banks have more, bigger banks have less. that is why they all win. buy them cheaper and i'm still in favor of that trade. charles: what is not winning, gary, 40% of the nasdaq is down 50%. are we near a buy point or do we wait for them to go another 50% and buy from scratch? because that what it means like. >> ouch. charles, all i can tell you how much weeks back when rivian was at the high, i said is a
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160 billion-dollar market cap which is the equivalent of fm and ford even though they have 260 in billion in revenues and riff yawn none. down 60% and bill dollar market cap with accounts for risk going forward in a very competitive variety. there is a lot of that out. i think you have to be careful. there are chinese adrs down 90% from the highs because of china. there is great news, eventually there will be a ton of money to make in the growth arena but when liquidity has been taken out of the market. by the way jay powell not doing it but the market one, three, five-year, back to prepandemic highs that is what is doing the trick. until that ends, you take a powder right now. i have this thing where if i'm not in, i worry i should be in. i really haven't worried just yet. i stay focused every day. i look for institutional money
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coming into these growth names. it happens for about two hours right now before they sell them back off. charles: right. >> i'm taking my time. the good news is, they will show up again on my screen. there will be doubles, triples, quadruples many years from now we'll see tenfold moves in some of these names. it is just not this second. charles: stay in the batter's jerry in fidelity, puts out the amazing charts. reveals the fed has been so accommodative, even a 200 basis-point hike shouldn't derail the rally, derail the secular rally. is that something you believe, phil? is all this consternation we're going through more psychological than anything else. >> without a doubt. we've been waiting for, talked about the opening guessing game and you it, but show stocks win when rates go higher. we're inflating the economy. we're growing, maybe growing at faster pace could be a headwind for some earnings, but by and
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large return to normalcy means single-digit earnings growth, single stock market growth in inflation environment. bad for bonds, good for stocks. i'm not fearing the fed. they will slow us down a bit. take as much a bite out of inflation as possible but that is good for stocks. charles: chris? >> i think you want to think about it from the perspective what is the long yield doing, what is the long bond doing? you do not want the fed to begin a tightening campaign with long rates falling. i take comfort over the last couple weeks market pulled forward for fed rate hikes actually long bonds, long rates move higher. i get uncomfortable when the fed is tightening, financials arend performing and long rates are falling. neither has happened. that will be our triggers when we need to get more worried. charles: gary, want to ask you about mortgage rates. they're going back up. the housing market, getting a little worried about it. i want to get your thoughts.
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we keep getting housing data not coming out too well. downgrade of key homebuilders today. this is area where people made pretty good money. it is seen as solid area. would you touch some of these names? >> i'm bearish on anything housing, housing-related. it is a logical reason. mortgage rates are going up. you have to remember it is not mortgage rates going up. affordability factor. how high prices have gone in so many areas around the country. by the way, around the globe. so that combination right there gives me pause. i'm just not going to own these right now. they will have the day again. you're in, a tightening cycle i do believe to a certain extent and housing, utilities probably don't do as well either, even though they have more of a defensive component to it. i would just be careful right now. i have noticed like home depot which is strong as heck getting hit, restoration hardware, housing-related is actually
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crap. one plus one equals two with rates. charles: i'm in toll looking at spiking yields. most of those houses are bout with cash. chris, any portfolio composition should be made? >> we should continue to position our arrows in direction of the strength. where are the new high lists expanding? they're expanding in materials, regional banks, i'm right there with you as well. be equally careful where the high lists are shrinking, new lows expanding. frankly see that in semiconductors recently, software, communications. this market has by fur indicated. we think rates are expanding. charles: you don't have a lot to count. you have something to do this afternoon you can still do it. yesterday there were 60 new highs on the new york and maybe 30, 40 on the nasdaq. i'm exaggerating a little bit.
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700 new losers. we'll see. phil, gary, chris, thank you very much. great start to the show, guys. we are staying on these markets and i want to know what the heck is a value stock, right? people say i like the value stuff but what constitutes value? president biden will hold his first press conference in 10 months. a series of stumbles in his first year of office. this could be a make-or-break moment. a new bank rate survey shows how shaky america's finances are. it will shock you. we have greg mcbride coming up. he will explain it at 2:25. ♪. ♪♪ ♪♪
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charles: so attempt to spark some kind of a buying stampede we have seen a couple of them this morning, nothing's happening right now. nobody is taking the bait. would-be buyers still sitting on the fence. to being fair there is not enough news out there to buy the dip narrative at least todays. yields are upside bias even though coming back a little bit. not enough earnings are out yet and chatty members of fed are in
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the quiet car. nobody rings the bell when the market is at the bottom, nobody rings the bell when it is at the top. ultimately seducing fence-sitters off the sideline beginning with swashbuckler types. my next guest is brave and brilliant but i don't think she is a swashbuckler. managing director mark get gauge group, michelle schneider. rally attempts, mesh shill. we had a couple. both fizzled. what is going on? what is at play there? >> well, right now we have a lot of hesitancy with all the reasons, you can add russia, ukraine to some of those reasons as well. yet there has been, even though not big buying coming in, there has been a level of support that is being established. so the market is trying to figure out whether or not this inflationary tiff is something that really, really is going to force the fed to be way more hawkish. there has been predictions from everything two to six interest rate hikes this year.
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whether the economy which right now is contracting will come back because it is covid, at some point go away. and then, on top of that, as you mentioned before we have earnings seasons right in gear. people are a little confused looking at the banks, how split they were. so i think all of this right now has put us into a situation where we are very range-bound as opposed to we're going to crash, or we're going to make new all-time highs. charles: i saw on twitter you used the term range-bound about a dozen times. what does it mean though? when i see it as an individual vin tore? am i okay, i have a level of support, just a matter of breaking through the top of the range as a buy signal? >> it really means we have to adjust a little bit to our mindset of buying every dip means that we're eventually going to new all-time highs t also requires some patience. look at iwm. which had a literally a 10%
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trading range from february 2021 until now. it hasn't broken the range. today is perfect example. it went down to 2.5. uh-oh, lights out. then a little buying came in. what i talk about range-bound you get these support levels. you kind of can get your feet wet or if you have existing positions, sort of be on standby being a little bit more protective but there is no need to panic. even when that range may break, again we may find another floor but i think right now the market is telling you that it is stagnating which is part of the word stagflation. that is it what we have going on. charles: really? wow. let me ask you about j.b. hunt. they had a really nice earnings report. the stock gapped open three bucks. it gave up those gains, speaking of which sort of grappling with the 200 day moving average. you and i talked about the transportation index before, the old dow theory kind of thing. they broke out last year and the rest of the market went along
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for the ride. do you like them here? are they oversold enough to start looking again? >> well again let's talk about range-bound. what is interesting about right now if we look at the etf, iyt. it is holding the 50 week moving average. that means it is one of the top performers along with the regional banks and semiconductors which are still holding and that also means that if they continue to hold here, there is opportunity but also if we step back to look what it means for the economy. in terms of an inflationary environment. we could actually have transportation doing well because, remember, demand goes up. it is supply that goes down. but in demand we have a hoarding mentality, which means some of these railroads, some of these trucking services like j.b. hunt can continue to do well. then eventually again, after covid, transportation cruise lines, et cetera. i still consider it to be the best hope for any growth in the economy. charles: okay.
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michelle, thank you very much. we always learn a lot when you're on. thank you, see you soon. meanwhile elon musk echoing what i have been saying for a long time, quote, we should be much more worried about population collapse. now falling fertility rates could lead to our collapse. we're going to discuss that. also president biden set to hold his first conference in almost a year. how will he defend this lackluster economy where inflation is destroying everyone? we'll go live to washington with a preview right after this break ♪. (vo) for me, one of the best things about life is that we keep moving forward. we discover exciting new technologies. redefine who we are and how we want to lead our lives.
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charles: president biden set to hold a solo news conference at 4:00 p.m. he is expected to field questions over this lackluster economy as more and more americans really find themselves faced with
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skyrocketing inflation. these supply chain woes won't go down as a nationwide workers strike, a new phenomenon. edward lawrence is live at the white house with a preview. reporter: i know how you love statistics. let me get into the weeds. this is the only second news conference solo inside of the white house in his first year in office. you know it has been a tough year in order to get our questions answered by this president. we heard a lot more from white house press secretary jen psaki what we normally see, you see the president turning, walking away. sometimes he will answer a brief question with a brief answer but mostly we get a shot of the president's back. here is the break down now, for the comparison for the first year. this will only be the 10th news conference including this one president joe biden had in the first year. former president donald trump held 21. former president obama had 27 in his first full year in office. this president elected largely campaigning out of his basement.
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we will likely here this afternoon the president was able to add back 6.9 million jobs to the economy. it is still 600,000 jobs short where we were prepandemic levels. the president will also tout the fact that wage gains have gone up 4.7% over the past 12 months. we will likely see a defiant president though how his policies have led to inflation at the highest level in 40 years, eating up all those wage gains. the president will likely deflect questions about the border. he will also try to reassure americans that he can handle the rise in crime we're seeing in a lot of cities across the u.s. charles: edward, you know me so well. we'll see you, talk again soon. since the onset of covid-19, federal government has dom up with five trillion dollars in aid, with bun trillion in household pockets. it paided off debt. at one point hiked savings to a
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historic level. much excess savings is beginning to fade. there is a boom in wages, if you we still have a lot fewer, millions workers. that is the latest back trop for the is survey from bank rate, americans ability to cover unexplained expense of $1000. china analyst there, greg mcbride. i always wait for your work. it is fantastic work and disspiritting at the same time. 44% of americans could cover an unplanned 1000-dollar expense. we're talking like a car repair. you know, i was shocked to see this was the best in the eight years of polling but why is this so low? >> well, charles, americans generally haven't been good savers. this is something that has carried on the past couple of generations. you mentioned 44% could cover an unplanned 1000-dollar expense, that is the highest the eight years we've been polling this particular question but the bad news we're still talking more
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than half of americans could not cover that expense out of savings. charles: so if it came up what are the actions people would have to take most to try to cover that expense? >> in lieu of that savings we do see a high reliance on borrowing still. 35% of americans would have to borrow that money in one fashion or another. 20% say they would have to look to a credit card and finance it over time. that was the one that really jumps out at me because we're talking about interest rates going up this year. that credit card debt which is the most expensive debt most households have, will only get more expensive. 10% said they would borrow from family members and friends. a handful of a percent would take out a personal loan. big reliance on borrowing at a time we're expecting interest rates to go up. charles: i want to dig and go even further into that, gregg. inflation at a 40-year high. how overall does that change things? >> it's standing in the way. not that people don't know how
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important emergency savings is. the pandemic really underscored that. it is not that people don't know they don't have enough. that memo, people got that memo a long time ago. where the difficulty is in moving that needle. we only saw the needle move just a little bit relative to the tight range it had been in the past few years. half of americans, 49%, said inflation is causing them to save less as it puts more and more after squeeze on the household budget, it is crowding out the ability for americans to save for that inevitable rainy did i. charles: i went through this report. i go through a lot of your reports. i found a conundrum you help me with. bank rate you put out a list. winners and losers during higher inflationary periods. i thought it was interesting, because savers were in the losing category but it is interesting, as inflation goes up the fed raises rates. you would assume maybe banks start to hike rates. so, you know, here we are savers are considered to be losers when
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the fed is lowering rates. now the savers are losers as the fed raises rates. where are savers ever a winner? >> well savers will migrate over to the winning column once we start to close the two gap between interest rates which is way down here and inflation which is way up here. token interest rates increases from the fed will really not i can that much of a dent until we start to see inflation come down in a meaningful way. we gained some momentum closing that gap. cash earnings going up. inflation coming down. savers will very definitely be winners. that is really important because everybody needs that rainy day fund. charles: absolutely. i agree. greg, great work as usual. thank you for breaking it on our show. >> thanks a lot, charles. charles: with me i want to bring ceo lily gill little valente. inflation sure to be a top pick during president biden's press
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conference. if there was a question what would you particularly ask the president when it comes to this. >> particularly as a business owner, what policies will thos job jobobs?s?rict andct pef tre athoufff?pp? retaininorkforce i of, puttiti restionsictions eing our bs tsei to to to t pret nt knownoww whanomial. arll be to to turn that t t les: you very veryassionatas wh ien it c com wom sudingeeding iur socieiendie i saww piess out out a kiki conunum? ? we clege cos cts armnd . ateat w i worthrt ih dsdshat yt ytt maj in but you need to have proper skills, right? more so true now for women. >> right. charles: this release showed with the labor force showed almost 13% of women without a high school graduation or high
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school diploma, 6% with only high school are still out of the labor force. how can you fix something like that beyond these bumper stickers, teach girls to code? this is real-life stuff here. >> absolutely. you know the pandemic, many people call it a she session, recession that impacts women disproportionately because of added pressures is of rising costs. you have to take care of your kids. if schools are closed you will have to play teacher, do the housework, try to have living conditions that makes sense for your family. we need to explore vocational programs, activate community colleges, untapped potential for our nation, different paths to education. many of us that want to be entrepreneurs, women create more businesses still don't have access to the funding at the sail rate as some of their male counterparts. there are other ways to provide path tosca rears that don't have to be a full college degree but
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we need to create those systems and leverage the infrastructure we have to be able to enable that. charles: president biden will get questions about the border. whether he answers them or not remains to be seen. you were just down there. you sent me photographs that touched me. i would like you to share with the audience what struck you most from your visit? >> my visit to the border, charles, was life-changing. over two decades i'm following immigration as issue we've been reading about. we need to secure the border and we need to way to process lawful immigrants to get a job. people like me, go to school, to be productive citizens. what struck me the most were kids. last year we had over 150,000 kids came by themselves. open exposure for trafficking, abuse. i saw those faces, charles, as a mom of two boys. i broke my heart. there is humanitarian crisis in the middle of a political
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crisis. people need to pay attention, the last president that did something or proposed something, was president bush. we have yet to solve many dimensions. one size does not fit all. my heart is broken and he have a new perspective. charles: thank you, lily. >> thank you, charles. charles: we'll ask one of my favorite market watchers, lance roberts. more pitchforks and torches, despite nancy pelosi's resistance americans are demanding congress stop this insider trading but will congress actually do it or will they bow to the hedge funds and well, nancy pelosi. tweet me: @cvpayne, do you think congress will ever stop taking advantage of the major money making machine that they enjoy. we'll be right back.
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♪. charles: with all the hand-wringing going on about the direction of the federal reserve it seems to be a lot less about less accommodation or less a accommodative stance and just really the fear that the fed will go too far. listen it makes for difficult investing decisions with that in the backdrop i want to bring in ria advisors lance roberts. lance, you say the fed hiking will create three issues for the markets. share that with us. >> sure. when the fed hikes rates reduces liquidity in the markets. again what has been the main bullish thesis over the last couple years buy stocks because the fed is doing qe. now that is going away. you will reduce that liquidity to the markets. at the same time you have all the fiscal liquidity from all bailouts we did with all checks, et cetera, that is coming out of the system. tighter monetary policy, the reason you lift rates, the reason we reduce inflationary
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pressure. how do we reduce inflationary pressure? we slow economic growth. that will impact earnings and profit margins going forward as well. so those are the things to be paying attention to over the course of the next few quarters, charles. charles: so the question though is then, is it possible, i know it's possible but how probable could it be that jay powell really knowing history, that the fed goes so far that they trigger some sort of really stinging recession? although many people are saying that is the exact medicine they need, we all need? >> i don't know if we actually need a recession. that is never a great thing to have to go through. the reality if you go back in history, look at it, every time the fed start as rate hiking campaign, without exception you've done two things, you inverted the yield curve, created a recession. at worse you have bear markets and financial crises like you had back in 2007. so you know, the problem always
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for the fed is, they have a tough choice. either they have to support the stock market or they have got to battle inflation. if you battle inflation you're going to wind up causing problems for stocks down the road. charles: recently you had fed governor waller saying that the fed was surprised at the sort of persistence of inflation. that right there makes you lose confidence, right? everyone watching kept saying it is not transitory, it is not transitory. >> right. charles: i want to talk about the bond market for a moment. the yield curve flattened fast. that would imply maybe the economy gets weaker. again i'm just trying to get to the can nun drum for the federal reserve. goldman is talking about 10 rate hikes over the next few years. i don't see it happening? >> no, charles, it won't happen. if you go back to look where rate hikes have peaked, everybody previous point in history it always has been at a lower level. last 2018 we peaked 2, 2.25 at
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the fed funds rate. if history proves to be a guide, where the yield curve is already flattening and where we are with the yield curve in the markets that means the fed could get to one, possibly 1 1/2 with the fed funds rate before they have to back off with other problems. charles: i have a minute to go, i really need you to help me with this. listen, it has been a heck of a value start for value stocks, i'm using air quotes. you were 100% right. here is my dilemma, i think the dilemma for the audience. the word value connotes inexpensive, discounted. this morning when proctor & gamble posted great earnings report. they had pricing power, they gained volume but if you look at the stock, in march of 2009 it was a 32-dollar stock with a 7 pe. now it is a 160-dollar stock with a 29 pe. is this quote, unquote a value stock? >> no, sir, it is not. this is the thing really important to pay attention to as you go further into this year. right now it is lumped in the
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basket of value stocks because it is proctor & gamble. it is not truly a value stock. neither is coke, neither is disney, a lot of these companies. look at stock trading two times price to sales, less than 15 trailing pe, earnings growth over 25% with a dividend yield. nucor, those are value stocks. it is important for investors going forward to really dough your homework. before you jump off buying value stocks right now they're very overbought. we put on energy trades back in december. when the fed hikes rates that negatively impacts oil prices and energy going forward. starting to pull off a little bit of that idea. these tick stocks have gotten really beat up. not value, they are growth i think we'll see a short term rotation back into growth. that will give you an opportunity to maybe buy value a little cheaper in the next couple months. charles: i'm glad you cleared that up. i will ask even more guests
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because we use those terms they go with them not really knowing what they go with it. lance, good stuff. >> my pleasure. anytime. charles: another one of my really brilliant guests lucky to have on, david bahnsen. but he knows history and studies society really closely. i will ask him will we destroy ours? should members of congress be trading stocks? tweet me your thoughts. already getting fantastic tweets in. i will share a couple. we'll be right back. ♪. and it's easy to get a quote at so you only pay for what you need. isn't that right limu? limu? sorry, one sec. doug blows a whistle. [a vulture squawks.] oh boy. only pay for what you need. ♪liberty, liberty, liberty, liberty♪
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and offers high-quality municipal bonds from across the country. they provide the potential for regular income...are federally tax-free... and have historically low risk. call today to request your free bond guide. 1-800-217-3217. that's 1-800-217-3217 ♪. charles: breaking right now, gary gensler announcing just moments ago the sec is planning to scrutinize hedge fund client fees as a way to boost efficiency, competition and transparency. this as we are entering year three of the new investor revolution and nothing has been done to level the playing field and make the process more fair and transparent. just a lot of lip service from gensler and a whole lot more whining from hedge funds. these last two years have brought enormous lessons for new
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investors as they dealt with significant drawdowns right now in many of their favorite stocks. here is what to expect. i have a two folks that will help us on the legal side, lisa and kima hone any on the investment side. lisa i will start with you. looks like "the empire strikes back." i was reading about the potential sec reforms in ft. investors fear the painful losses they suffered in the meme stock trading trends sy in january of 2021 will be repeated if u.s. regulators press ahead to reforms security lending, one of es mo most opaque practices in financial markets. why hasn't been this done already? >> that is a excellent question. that is absolutely ridiculous. the hedge funds obviously want to maintain this advantage that they have. they like making tons of money on these kinds of trades and not reporting them.
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and so now their arguments are oh, it would be expensive for to us report. well, stock trades have to be reported and bond trades and lots of other things. there is no reason to be treating the borrowing and lending of these shares any differently. so, you know, the hedge funds, they're just defending their turf. charles: ken, meantime hedge fund track records are getting worse. they seem to get worse every single year. the vast majority -- rich people keep paying two and two. can you explain that to me? >> not easy to explain but it is sort of conditioning where you go from family trusts, and old family trusts, transfer of wealth over time make some of these relationships kind of sticky, because it is hard to justify two and 20 when the mole model should be blown up. there is no alpha, no performance. somewhere along the way, trust people will say wait a seconds we're paying 2, 20, no
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outperformance? s&p 500 is up 25% for 20 basis points and you're starting two and 20 for 10% returns? there are some of these relationships that are rather sticky, they go through generational wealth trusts. charles: that explains why bernie madoff was able to get so much money, sty viable for so long. it was relationship part of it. >> right. charles: 67% of voters out there they support a ban on congressional lawmakers from trading, even their staff. this is really huge. the biggest stumbling block is nancy pelosi. what do you think will happen there? >> we have a number of bills, this is something that just has to happen. there has to be a ban on members of congress owning stocks. we are in the midst of a whole lot of scandals. we have federal judges that "the wall street journal" has found, you know were, over 130
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of them handling cases where they had a financial interest. we have over 50 members of congress who have failed to report trades the way this they should have under the stock act. charles: right. >> what we have done has not worked. the federal reserve is implementing a program now that, that the judiciary should adopt and so should congress. charles: absolutely. >> no edger ship of equities, no ownership of bonds, no ownership of any specialized mutual funds. you get to own vanilla diversified funds. you have to report any changes that you're going to make, any trades 25 days ahead of time. charles: go further than that if a lawmaker buys $500,000 after call option, i'd like hold up. he knows something. you know something. no one takes that kind of risk. ken, sorry out of time, my friend. we'll bring you back real soon. obviously love to have you on.
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lisa, love your judicial insight. folks know you worked at sec. you know what the heck is going on there. meantime this market environment, a lot of people are looking at other ways, safer ways to be in this market. dividends are one. david bahnsen, he wrote the book on this kind of invests. he will be up next. ♪. at vanguard, you're more than just an investor, you're an owner with access to financial advice, tools and a personalized plan .... or the famed peaks of whistler, you face the hassle of lugging your gear
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charles: so while the nation is focused on inflation, covid, and where the economy is going, it's something much bigger lurking beneath the surface and that's the population crash. elon musk tweeted about it yesterday, saying we should be much more worried about population collapse. now, i think he's right. u.s. birth rates fell by 4% in 2020 with the most recent data we've gotten and there's serious economic implications to all of this. i want to bring in david bahnsen from the bahnsen group. david you're a brilliant guy when it comes to the markets but i love your social thinking and how you connect the economy and those kind of things. i've been worried about this for a long time. i look at what happened in japan i see the example china has, and i see what's happening with europe it's a real serious problem and i don't think enough people are paying attention. >> no, and all of those countries that you mentioned have one thing in
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common. what preceded their population decline, their decreasing birth rates was an increase in secularism, was an increase in humanism that seeks to strip god out of society and out of public life, and so if that's the way american cultures going to go to increasingly remove ourselves from our indisputably judeo christian ethic then declining birth rates will follow both culturally and demographically inevitable and as you point out it's economic ally tragic, i think there's even worse ramifications than what it means to economic growth. charles: yeah, you wrote the book on investing and dividends, and of course, you have the dividend cafe which i enjoy a lot. they are outperforming really nicely. just share some of your thoughts on that and where maybe people should be right now. >> well first let me just out performance issue they are doing very very well right now and there's this sort of seasonality to where dividend growth is outperforming large
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cap growth and non-dividend paying things but see there's seasons where it can be the opposite too. our belief is not in trying to time when it's outperforming or when it's not. it's in the permanent belief that over longer periods of time , companies that return cash to shareholders, perform better than companies that don't and we have a lot of historical data to back that up. right now, though, i think with high valuations, with the cost of credit, so manipulated by the fed, you've had a great day in the sun for high pe stocks and now people are turning to dividend growth, higher quality and just more dependable, repeatable performance in terms of cash flow. charles: it's a pretty good place to hide out. i'll give you 20 seconds, president biden holding a rare press conference if you could ask a question, what would it be >> oh, there's so many things i'd like to talk to him about but my questions i'd want to talk about privately and respect fully. namely, can you please, please, let american energy independence come back into the
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administration, american energy, there's no reason for him to be doing what he's doing. charles: yeah, i mean, it's back fired miserably and ironically, they've got plans on the drawing board to make it harder. that was one heck of a miracle for our country in more ways than one. david always appreciate it wish we had more time my friend, we'll talk again real soon and speaking of good friends, liz claman is back. liz, it's so good to see you. liz: [laughter] so good to see you. listen i was watching you yesterday, nice jacket. charles: oh, thank you very much , i don't know if you saw what i had on on martin luther king day. it was an unusual suit. i broke the internet with that one, kevin corke said. liz: i just wanted to know if it had a volume button. charles: [laughter] liz: that's amazing, thank you, charles. i'm with you, thank you so much. all right, folks, we've got bulls & bears a fierce battle


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