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tv   Making Money With Charles Payne  FOX Business  August 1, 2022 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT

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has worn off. we'll be watching. jackie: this is something the administration hung its hat on the labor market is giving us support we do what we want to do. we'll get signs. we have little indication. >> housing number is the best indication, housing number you reported on as well. jackie: great to see you that will do it for us on "coast to coast." today i will see you back here tomorrow at noon. charles payne taking it away. charles: good afternoon, everyone, i'm charles payne. breaking right now, after the best july in more than 80 years, the market grappling a little bit with direction. we want to get on through the phase of recession because after that comes equal economic keel. we may go too far that the fed will cut rates. that is the map many people hope in real life that is no walk in
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the park. i have great thinkers on the punishing trip. gary k., shah gilani, lance roberts. another big week for earnings. i think. danielle shay is my special guest to handicap all of them. that so-called inflation reduction bill will crush small businesses. washington might not care but i do. i will talk to the small business entrepreneurship council. big shorts, not talking about a bad movie, hedge funds going with biggest shorting bing since 2008 as retail investors have been buying big time. the showdown is ready. i can't wait to give you my take. that and so much more on "making money." ♪. charles: by now we're court of accustomed to the is christmas commercials. they promise to deliver a
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december to remember. as long as you buy what they're selling. market just got a july to remember. these gains in the s&p 500 were the very best since way back here, 1939. that is absolutely amazing. of course the question is, how much are investors buying you know, this move, right? obviously it is still a bear market bounce until it's not but maybe could be the start of something more meaningful. mike wilson at morgan stanley who had the hot hand this year the equity market can dream after better future when rates come down but we'll be proven wrong by estimates collapsing as they always do in an actual recession. helping us out, moneymap shah gilani, heed did i gabor, wealth enhancement group senior vice president nicole webb. eddie, start with you.
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you told folks to be bearish, 100% on the sidelines you've been so far right. this july move, do you think this is more than a bounce? >> charles, we're human beings, so you always second-guess at times when you see rallies. i learned a valuable lesson managing the tech bubble burst in 2000. don't get sucked into the bear bounces. back then the bear bounces were twice as big what we see today. i'm focusing on fundamentals. the reason why we continue to be bearish, think this is a bounce. number one, the fed is not dovish. they say they will try to get inflation at 2 1/2 to 3 1/2%. in my opinion only way that happens by causing a recession and this market has not priced in a recession. secondly the dollar will shrink as they tighten, which is bad for multinationals. charles: right. >> real estate is starting to show signs of rolling over which isn't good. lastly the consumer. inflation has come to a head. consumer spending will continue to go un. i think earnings will continue
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to guide down. i'm being patient here. i may be wrong. i think we'll have another leg down. we'll be big buyers in the fourth quarter. charles: you look very young. i thought you were playing little league baseball in 2000. >> i wish [laughter]. charles: nicole what do you think? obviously this is a great debate. here's the thing, jay powell obviously gave some sort of a mint to the market because this is the best post-fomc meeting with a rate hike rally i can remember ever and so something is going on here because parts of the market, equity and otherwise, believe that something is going on with the fed that they will not be that hawkish. >> yeah. i mean our sentiments are going to mirror pretty closely to eddie's. we started to talk about this inverse relationship as we started to see pressure on wti crude come down and perhaps a little bit of this bear market rally but, the real clincher will be economic data to follow
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and we will see a economic slowdown. the reality is they can't pull enough levers to lower inflation. how will they prioritize, stable prices or about maximum -- as they come to show us what direction we go, that i think we'll have more clarity. you're starting to see some shakeout in the bond market. we do think we're going to have some contractions come fall. in just a moment in time. charles: almost all of the major wall street firms feel that way, nicole. they are saying we're misreading or markets are misreading powell. even neel kashkari is saying that but does that explain, for instance, let's take a look -- we know the stock market can be emotional but the bond market is supposed to be even keeled, right, the canary in the coal mine. look at these bond yields this is amazing. shah, how do we explain even the action in the bond markets. i understand stock markets being emotional, huffing, maybe
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praying, thinking, guessing, but how do you explain what is happening with the bond market? >> i think investors are front running the fed. the assumption is, it is pretty widespread, widely-held, the fed is going to raise, will have to raise, and as they raise eventually they cause a deeper recession. we rather have some inflation i think we'll have for a few years than a deep recession. they're looking forward. expecting a pivot at some point. a lot of analysts say maybe first half of next year, back half at the latest. investors are buying they're front running that pivot. that is as simple as it gets. the market bottomed when the 10-year in june hit 3.48%. two days later stock market bottomed and as bonds have rallied, as yields come down, the markets continue to rally higher. it can go higher. i don't think we're done with this little bear market rally. charles: let me pick up on that
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then, shah, because the market turned in mid-june. growth began to outpace value in mid-may. this is may. this has been sort of a stealthy move here. do you think then there is new leadership, shah? would you be a buyer of growth stocks? >> we have been nibbling at the growth stocks because a lot of them were on sale. when you see amazon, apple, trading 25% lower it is time to buy, pick up some shares there. we're moving our stops up as we have appreciation in all the new positions we've taken. i don't mind taking 10, 15% gain and getting stopped out and getting back in if we go lower. you can keep tight stops. i think we could go another 10% higher. charles: nicole? >> yeah. i am going to have to agree there. it was kind of mid spring when we started to look at growth again say, where can we pick up earnings that are less of a function of the economy, in anticipation of where we thought
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the cyclical moves were going to go as the economic cycle moved forward. we too were buyers of apple, amazon, some growth at a reasonable price plays like disney, over the last 60 days. so -- charles: okay. let's leave that there. i will bring in eddie. so eddie, are you fading rallies? are you going short? because i'm reading where the bears are sort of licking their chops because again once again investors are spoke to get sucked in with a bear market rally, bid it up, set it up, tee it up for anyone who wants to go short again? eddie? oh, i think he is trying to talk to me or he can't hear me. let me go to you with that, shah. it is obviously going to keep going back and forth here. my thought, wherever we are we are close enough to the end that i would start to err on the side of being great companies even if
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i'm a little early here? >> that i agree 100%. that is what we've been doing. companies with great balance sheets, we're picking those up, build our portfolio back up. we're pretty much very deeply into cash. now we're trying to reallocate stuff. this is on opportunity, if market urns around, we're not seeing bottom, wouldn't surprise to see a lower bottom. ride this rally, who knows how long it will go. charles: hey, eddie, real quick, i have a minute to go, since you're -- are you reloading on the downside? are you going long-short here, buying puts here? >> no, we don't do the options market game with our clients. we basically have been raising cash. earlier in the year we rotated into lower beta names. that was our way of hedging but as we got in the second quarter we raised a lot of cash. we're sitting at the highest cash position we've had all year for clients because i think we'll have some really great buying opportunities for these
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great companies you mentioned. again i think the s&p goes down 30% on a year-to-date basis before we bottom and i think that will be somewhere in the fourth quarter time period when this economy surprises to the downside, when we look at the rate of change of things, they're unfortunately going in the wrong direction and the fed is not going to be able to save us. the fed is not going to save us in this instance. a pivot, define a pivot. is that stopping to raise rates? because there is a difference between that and cutting rates and i think we're a long way aways from cutting rates. charles: this is a tough one, guy the to tell you. give you an example real quick. we took profits on amd in mid high 90s. went down to the, in mid 70s, now back to the mid 90s, i'm feeling a little dumbish. you have got to be nimble. eddie, shah, nicole, thank you very much. this is an anxious period for everyone. stocks are making a one-month high but how much room is left in this run?
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we'll go to chart school to look for those answers next. ♪
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charles: oh, snap. breaking news, folks. the atlanta fed third quarter gdp cut to 1.3%, in on friday. aye yi yi. like most investing pros, you know dedicated to the market what we should be doing while others are listening and watching the markets sort of dictating to what they want others are, some folks out there pay attention to the markets themselves. and one of my favorite guests is just that person. i want to bring in right now, gary kaltbaum, president of kaltbaum capital management. gary, you don't dictate the markets, you let the markets tell you. that is what i love about your style. let's start with the 10-year yield this is what the market was telling us. we saw on june, right around here june 16th, the 10-year yield hit a high, the s&p 500 hit a bottom and the 10-year
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yield started to go lower guess what the stock market started to do? it started to go higher. you didn't have to fight that, did you? >> pretty much to the day. let's go back to the beginning of the year. the date the 10-year yield broke out to the upside within one day the broad market topped. so this whole year has been a direct correlation between the 10-year yield and the market. correlations never last forever but as long as that's going on with you stick with it. my big worry though right now is what is the 10-year yield telling you? when i see commodities prices, industrials metals dropping off a ledge and rates coming down is it saying that the recession is going to worsen? yes, sorry, president biden, it is a recession. if it worsens that will hurt profits. if you hurt profits we'll probably have another leg down. so very important juncture the next few weeks. right now we're in this nascent
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rally. hopefully it lasts longer. my big worry it is earnings not very good and we had some good reaction to earnings but we also had some blowups also. i am taking it day by day. i bought back in a little bit the week before last. i thought something was up. it is a rental right now. i can tell you i'm almost a foot out of door. charles: believe miniated 100% how you feel. talk about near term, you're right over the next few weeks we'll get a clearer picture. every day could feel like a month, right? the major indices they have broken out, this is 50-day moving average. they have broken out for the 50-day moving average this is the s&p 500. is it unreasonable, maybe if you go test the 200 day from here? >> potentially. once something gets going it can so, i'm not against that if it decide to happen but again day by day and i was taught and i teach everybody i come in contact with, as long as you're
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staying above the 50-day moving average for the indices you have opportunity f it breaks back below look out because i worry about a third leg down in the bear market which is usually normal but so far so good but again everything i'm doing right now is rental and i'm looking through the rear view mirror and looking behind me making sure i'm not stupid. again the big worry is when you deal with a worsening economy you never know what company in the middle of a quarter is going to say, oh, we expected two bucks, we'll only do a buck 10 and the stock is down 20% overnight. so that is something i'm really being careful about, watching out for, that is why i'm spreading it out pretty well right now. charles: i believe the market, the july was all about the market being oversold, right? i mean to your point companies have pretty bad earnings. a lot of them had, i saw companies miss on top and bottom. you had to have a bad clunker like walmart another warning or
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sherwin-williams, right, otherwise you got the benefit of the doubt. what i'm liking here, you talked about this a lot, how more and more companies are participating. listen for market breadth to have more 52 week highs and lows may be a ways off but if we shorten that down, stock at new month highs that is the highest level since november of last year. does that suggest this is gaining momentum if buyers are looking to branch out to buy other names? >> the good news there is participation. the good news is lot of things are moving up lows. the bad news is a lot of things are moving up off lows. if a stock drops a lot of them, from 100 down to 25, decides to rally 1015%, you're still in a bear market, still down 65, 70% and there is a lot of that going on. so i'm a big believer in the yearly highs. that will dictate where the leadership is. one month, things are better. i'm happy for everybody fully
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invested in 401(k)s. believe me i take no joy in markets going down but continue to be careful. if things keep working, i keep adding. if things stop working i get the heck out of the way. charles: all right. that's putting one foot in front of the other quicktime. we always appreciate you, gary. thanks a lot. want to go over all of that with you. u.s. economy is contracting and it is happening very fast. i want to know where we go from here. we have one of the best johns hopkins university professor steve henke will join us. senators manchin and schumer claim this new tax bill will help everyone but what about the little guy? i got to tell you someone on the inside who understands this says, it is a disaster. she's next. ♪.
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economic contraction continues with spate of economic releases. ism index fell to 52.8. that is the lowest read since june 2020. it was paced by a monster decline of prices paid to 70 to 68.5. output of new orders fell in july. u.s. construction swooned down 1.1%. the street was looking for a slim gain. join me to discuss johns hopkins university professor economist steve henke. chief economist at s&p said, quote with the exception of pandemic lockdown periods july saw u.s. manufacturers report the toughest business conditions since 2009. i think for me all up to the last few weeks it has been the pace of these declines that's
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the real story. your thoughts where this economy really is? >> charles, good to be with you. the thing that you really have to keep your eye on is the growth rate in the money supply and if you do that, and look at the numbers carefully which the fed really apparently is just ignoring actually we've had over the last three months on an annualized basis a negative rate of growth in the money supply measured by m2, minus 1.3%. you have to go back, we have very few times in history when we have a negative growth rate in the money supply but, if we, if you go back to 1993, that is the last time we've actually had three months of negative growth. so this means slowdown, slowdown. you have negative growth rates
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in the money supply and you're slowing down. so these numbers don't surprise -- by the way, these numbers don't surprise me and the inflation numbers never surprised john greenwood and myself. a year ago in "the wall street journal" we wrote given the excessive growth in the money supply measured by m2 that inflation would end up being 6% or maybe as high as 9%. we hit the bullseye on that thing, using the tried and true quantity theory of money. but everyone ignores that but that has been around since the 16th century it has been used successfully by everybody under the sun except this neurad that's in there. charles: the new crowd, jay powell crowd, causing a lot of frustration. he is causing frustration i think even among his own peers with that fomc q&a session and
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apparently that dovish tilt. how do you rate the federal reserve through all of this because we're looking to them with all the answers? >> f. charles: okay. >> charles, there is only one tried and true way to look at the main thing produced by the fed. it is called money. and if you look at the fed starting with powell and he has doubled down on this many, many times, he explicitly said in testimony before congress we should unlearn the quantity theory of money. we should discard it. if you read influential columnist like paul krugman at the "new york times" they go on and on about inflation for ad hoc reasons why we have inflation, supply chains, gasoline prices, all this stuff. they never mention the word money.
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you look at krugman's columns they will never have the word money included. that is because money is not included in their models. charles: i stopped looking at them a long time ago. i got 30 seconds. i want to get your read onth because, your work, you cover the span, you watch the globe, the global events, you know the world better than most folks. nancy pelosi if she makes that trip to taiwan tomorrow night, looks like she will, how does that change geopolitical risk? >> it increases them we are in a massive risk-off situation especially emerging markets. you have money going out of the emerging markets now for five straight months. this is a record. there has never been a recorded outflow for five consecutive months. so that is a risk-off. no one wants to be involved with risk. now why is there so much risk? the dollar is megastrong.
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that means all the junk currencies in the emerging markets are megaweak. that means they have big inflation problems and they have big external debt problems because most of their debt denominated in dollars. charles: yeah. it's a tough, treacherous cycle. >> so there is a lot of trouble brewing and when you look at europe it's always, it is sanction, sanction, sanctions. the more we apply sanctions to russia the faster europe is going to be sinking. so that is europe. if you go to china it's lockdowns, lockdowns, lockdowns. the more they lockdown, the more the economy tanks. charles: no, i mean there is no real clear, smart thinking out there for lack of a better word. steve, i wish we had more time. i want to bring you back on because i really like going into these things. hopefully we can talk to you again real soon. thank you very much. >> thank you, charles. charles: folks, i want to share with you a headline now.
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this is from friday. don't be fooled, manchin-schumer tax hikes will hit small businesses and consumers. now that sentiment from my next guest small business entrepreneur council president and ceo, karen kerrigan. on this reconciliation package, $313 billion in new taxes on corporations. you point out investors, i would guess consumers and individuals as well, karen, my big question to you, how come the concerns of small businesses, the impact on small businesses is never talked about in washington, d.c., or in the media with these gargantuan bills? >> you know everyone says they care about small business, right, charles? but particularly around election time, a lot of these congressman, senators running how off they love small business and everything they're doing to protect small business. but either they don't care or they're economically ignore rant because small businesses
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dominate almost every sector in the economy and i can't think of any policy that comes out of washington that doesn't impact this sector. charles: you know what else i find interesting? is that to your point these politicians, they always advertise they're going after, give you a big target, elon musk or jeff bezos. then they do things like this 15% corporate minimum tax which means american businesses will have fewer reresources to your point. the companies will reinvest less, they will hire list workers, suppress innovation. it hurts everyone, doesn't it. >> it does hurt everyone and i can't think of any policy right now, charles, where washington is getting it right. washington needs to be unapologetically pro-business, small business, medium size business, large business, in order to get us out of this mess, in order to yield supply chains. we need pro-investment policies, policy stability. we actually need tax relief, tax cut, tax certainty and you know,
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again when you hit the big guys, when you hit the wealthy, when you go after present equity you're going after small businesses. you can't cordon off the impact of these policies. charles: right. >> that will not just hurt the big guys and the wealthy, they have a downstream impact on small businesses and their workers and local economies as well. charles: runaway inflation, explain, we have a minute 1/2 to go. can you explain exactly how that is hurting small businesses in particular. >> they are in a vice and it is tightening right now. you know, dealing with inflation for sometime and that had an impact on revenues. consumers are pulling back. they're not spending as much. their costs are going higher. now we're at a point where small businesses, you know, they're freezing hiring or they're laying off people. i mean, it makes it very difficult for them to compete to make ends meet. i saw a survey where 37% of
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small businesses said they wouldn't be able to make rent in july and 47% said you know, if this continues for another six months, they're going to be closing up shop. so they're running on tight margins. charles: right. >> they survived covid. and now, i really fear for what will happen if inflation continues. what it means for the devastation of our small business sector. >> i got 30 seconds. amazon last week said they had 100,000 fewer workers. now i'm reading all these small business contractors are filing for bankruptcy. 100,000 fewer workers in just three months. we got the jobs report on friday. do you think they're accurately counting what is happening in small businesses because for a while adp showed massive losses of those businesses with 50 or fewer employees? >> they better. they better wake up in terms of what is happening in the small business economy. what happens on main street you know, pretty much you know, sets the pace what happens in the broader economy and you know,
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they have been sending out you know, smoke signals for a while now in terms of what this means for jobs for investment, for local economies and you're right, just when you hit a big company like amazon, what it does for small business contractors, again that is what happens when you burden and you impose these new costs on larger companies. small business suppliers. again that has an impact on their workers. so on every policy at the beginning, charles, we need to be moving 180 in the opposite direction and support all american businesses. charles: yeah. >> particularly at this really challenging point in our economy. charles: karen, keep up the good work. >> thank you. charles: the backbone of our nation and again you know, they have to be more than political props, i'm talking about small businesses. thank you so much. >> thank you. charles: comparing bear market today from you will all the way back to 2008. we have lance roberts coming up.
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the latest news you need to know about earnings. danielle shay is back with earnings. she is out with the earnings destruction list. get out your pen and pape. she made a lot of money with this before. we'll be right back. ♪ i grew up an athlete, i rode horses... i really do take care of myself. i try to stay in shape. that's really important, especially as you age. i noticed after kids that my body totally changed. i started noticing a little pudge. so i took action! coolsculpting targets,
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charles: we talked about, we talked about this for two times, right? 2022 eerily similar to 2008. thus far, i got to tell you analogy is somewhat spot on, but seems to me for this trip now, right in this area here. supposed to have this fatal swoon, we probably would have to find a way to have a lehman moment. i don't see this coming. but what is in the cards?
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let's bring in ria advisors cio lance roberts. lance, i'm using one of your charts, my man. this is the part that worries me. you have got the lehman moment. i ask you what that might be this time around? then the face ripping selloff to the get me out of here phase. do we have to go through all of this. >> first of all, charles, i hate analogs this time is not last time. charles: right. >> we don't have -- prices, don't have those type of things, but we have different issues this time, right? we have inflation, we have money supply reversing. we have a fed tightening monetary policy very aggressively and we have an overpriced housing market. we do have an problem with overpriced valuations, things like that. could there be another big decline? the answer is yes but does it have to happen? the answer is also no. the point about the chart, charles, understand that in bear markets you can have the face ripping bull market rallies that
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can then fail. the point is just to be aware that just because we're having a rally inside of a bear market at the moment, now that can change, just be aware there is potentially some risk. that is really all i'm saying but look this time is not last time, this time is different because the variables are different. charles: so you and i talked about this, right? the street more recently being perhaps too pessimistic, what i find intriguing even after july the bears are still bearish, the bulls are still bullish. what is the contrarian play? >> be neutral and be nimble. really contrarian play here to the best is really remain nimble. right now we're holding some extra cash, looking for some opportunities on things that we added to some of our tech exposure last week. you can make a really good bullish case for the markets right now, earnings are coming in better than expected. things aren't as bad as everybody thought it was going to be. but on the bearish side. we have the fed tightening policy. they said they're not going to
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stop hiking rates anytime soon. normally when they stop hiking rates that is where your economic problems start. so you know, how do you navigate that? this is where you want to be a little bit nimble. let the market tell you what it wants to do, respond, trying to predict, being all long stock right now, could be disasterous. same way being all short the market. it has not been a great month for bears in july trying to be short the market because of what it did. just be opportunistic right now. we'll eventually know when the right time is to be all in, long equity. we're not there yet. charles: let's talk about valuations, right? because we've kind of discussed that a lot as well but we've been focused on the forward p-e ratio which takes in a lot of assumptions where earnings will be, earnings assumptions have gone down. i want to ask but the trailing numbers because those numbers are already in. as you can see folks the trailing pe is below the five-year average and 10-year
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average. at what point, it is near some historic bottoms, lance, at what point does this give a buy signal? >> on trailing basis valuations have come down but they're ace difference, charles, people need to be aware of. we look back at earnings which is the denominator for a lot of these pe valuations going back to 1900 earnings have grown% on 8% on average. since 2009, earnings what we see returns on the market average 12%, four percentage points higher. that is because all of monetary intervention going on. with less intervention, fed is reducing the balance sheet, tightening interest rates, doesn't seem any big hurry to go back to qe we should expect lower growth out of equities, means valuations 20 times earnings where we are now is historically still very high. so again if we do get into an economic recession because of monetary tightening, that is
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going to bring down earnings some more later this year. next year that will bring valuations back up because the "e" is going to be falling while prices are still there. so we could see valuations come back up again. again, you know, valuations are a terrible market timing indicator. they're great for understanding what your forward return expectations are. charles: right. >> they're terrible for managing a portfolio. use your technicals for that. charles: i got you. lance, thank you very much. always learn something. >> thank you, sir. charles: folks, earnings as you heard from lance, so far outperforming street expectations. so we've got a whole bunch coming up this week. i've got danielle shay on deck to talk about maybe what you should be buying and what you should be shorting. also i will give you my takeaway on unnatural wall street, unnatural ability for richest people on wall street to stay rich decade after decade. doesn't happen anywhere else in life. we'll be right back.
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♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it!
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this is xfinity rewards. our way of showing our appreciation. with rewards of all shapes and sizes. [ cheers ] are we actually going? yes!! and once in a lifetime moments. two tickets to nascar! yes! find rewards like these and so many more in the xfinity app. charles: so the past month has been gangbusters for big megacap technology names, by the way written off at beginning of the year by almost all the experts.
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they said they could never rekindle the magic which saw a half dozen names carry the entire market. here is the deal. amazon up 24%. apple up 17%. tesla 30%. microsoft 8%. while wall street was trough throwing in the towel retail investors were aggressively buying. that circle is you guys. one group will have to give up the ghost, either they were right or retail is right. we have dan nel shea and aosha tariq. last time you were on you liked google and tractor supply. congratulations r there other names that you are looking at right now? >> you know, charles, right now i'm actually liking consume every staples and energy again. i think they have come down significantly with energy in particular. you had great earnings reports from chevron and exxon.
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you want see they have come down with weekly chart. i think energy starts heading back higher w consumer staples we had the news from walmart. i think that is actually selling off at this point. we look for retail to trade higher into office. charles: oh, would you. you know what? i love that. i will come back to you. i want to bring in aisha. welcome to "making money." i happen to be a fan of your work. i've been reading it for some time and i'm glad you're on the show. started with the resurrection of megacap tech. you're a big fan of apple. you like anything else out in this space? >> first, thank you for having me on, charles. i'm also a big fan of your show. so, yes i am a big fan of apple, i think everybody knows that. i keep saying we never bet against apple and in the megacap space i would say microsoft still a very, very strong player and simply because i think digital advertising is taking a
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hit and, so, i would rather not look at google at this moment. i will not look at amazon at this moment. online is taking a hit as well. so the other name i would suggest is probably microsoft. charles: so, danielle, this earnings season, you've been just absolutely annihilating it. you made people so much money, shorting or buying puts into earnings. i just got the list of your earnings destruction, earnings destruction list. [laughter]. so uber, robinhood, fastly, skills, lucent, pin, wayfair, which got a massive downgrade at cowan, 84 from 104, carvana, dash, lyft, redfin. you're saying better just be short these names going into numbers, you feel strong about that? >> i do, charles but i do also want to warn viewers this quarter is a little bit different than last quarter. last quarter you know earnings hits took people by surprise. you see teledoc getting absolutely obliterated.
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this quarter they are fewer and between. i reason i picked out a lot of those names because a lot of those names on the list are i am baked by variety of issues we're currently experiencing and they were already on unstable ground prior to this quarter. companies like microsoft, you look back for years you know they will survive again. something like zillow, with the current housing market, look out below! charles: i want to bring you in, looks like you're taking a more conservative approach. looks like maybe cyclicals, right? united health, devon energy, proctor & gamble? >> that's right. so i think danielle said it very well as well. that we should focus on consumer staples so i do think consumer staples do well in recessionary slowdown, stagflationary environment. i also think that these are low beta, dividend, high dividend
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yield and so, you know, they should do pretty well. i think the other point she touched on which is very important i also think energy has a bit of room to run, not so much because the local situation in the u.s. but more so because of the global macro environment and how supply side issues are affecting the industries. >> no, i, tend i think wti gets above 102, i think it is off to the races. i don't think a lot of folks are paying attention. that strategic petroleum reserve is dropping like crazy. at some point when they stop we'll get a big spike on wti. you ladies are fantastic. i can't wait to see how the ideas play out. talk to you both very soon. coming up when are you going to hear good news about the stock market? when will hedge funds allow good news out there? here is the point. something uncanny has happened, it doesn't help anywhere else in nature or competition, only on wall street.
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charles: so this weekend i ran into a tweet from the ceo of jeffreys, handle rich, about the 100 highest paid people on wall street 30 years ago. guess who's on the cover of the magazine, folks? george sturos. it struck me how many of these people are still raking in big money, of course now it takes a billion dollars to make the cut. then it struck me how unscratchl is this. top song in 1992, end of the road. top paid actor, kevin cost merri bowl. nfl steven young, general motors, exxon mobile, nature, it works everywhere exempt for wall street. the term was coined creative destruction. it doesn't apply to the times of wall street. how do they stay on their perch? it's not performance or even consist. this year hedge funds have shorted the market and job
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knocked it down with a sign of a rally and when the market gets going, you hear dumb retail and impending doom. it's uncanny and unnatural and in some ways it's very unfair. you know what i'm going to tell you, you have to stay in the game. even if the playing field is tilted, i want you to get a piece of the action, no matter what. you might not make the list, but you'll make something; right, liz, claman? elizabeth: you missed sir mix-a-lot, baby got back. it's the cp effect albeit with a teeny bit of green. if you're trying to extract a message from the trading action on the first day of august with maybe you'll get a sense of where the markets could go this month, we've got to show you what's going on right now across several really important realms. forget the fact the markets are mixed at the moment. check out the intraday pictures here, all three major indexes have been bobbing ave


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