tv Making Money With Charles Payne FOX Business August 9, 2022 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT
down 1 57 points will be in the wake of inflation reduction act over the weekend. investors want to know what is coming ahead. if this passes fully, more rate hikes more aggressive fed. deeper recession. that is what investors fear the most. a lot to watch out for, that will do it for us on "coast to coast." i will send it over to charles payne. charles: jackie, thank you very much. love that synopsys. we'll take it from here. good afternoon, i'm charles payne, this is "making money." breaking now, bear market bounce taking a breather ahead of tomorrow's cpi number. i will explain why birmarkets are like great white sharks. the effort to curb inflation will fail. how do you invest under those circumstances? i will ask him. shocking fbi raid on president trump's mar-a-lago home.
will this unite the republican party into an unstoppable force? kevin burnett and weighing in on that. the financial media is fix eighted with dissing latest success of so-called meme traders, the brilliant investors of our time are losing tens of billions of dollars. we'll go to fundamental school how you have to endure the tough times. the chips act is official. what do you think chip stocks are doing? getting slammed. big post spending that never ends and never solves problems. that and so much more on "making money". ♪. charles: all quiet on the western front, you remember that? you might have read the book, saw the movie. tells the story of a 19-year-old soldier in the german army fighting on the french front in world war i. paul was his name. several of his friends joined army voluntarily after listening to stirring patriotic speeches. after brutal weeks of training,
petty training at hands of a real, really tough trainer they started to lose some idealisticness and realities of war rejected national amism and bait treatism which spurred them to volunteer in the first place. the stock market, while not physically brutal there is great sense of anticipation and worry in the air. it is inflation, recession, runaway debt. zero confidences in the folks tasked with doing this. maybe that the economy is on borrowed time. to start the show, bianco president jim bianco. you think the inflation fight will come up short. i guess you haven't heard about the inflation reduction act? >> i haven't heard about it because it won't do so much. spending the next 10 years is not a way to reduce inflation. unless you think 87,000 irs
agents crushing the economy is way to get inflation down. that is possibly one way they can do it. around the edges there might be some things, negotiating prescription drugs and stuff but that is not going to bring down core cpi or the cpi rate. as a matter of fact the, a lot of wall street analysts including goldman sachs this thing will do virtually nothing for the inflation rate. charles: i was actually being facetious about it. honestly it is ridiculous, right? let's talk about who is probably at the forefront of this, the federal reserve. there is scuttlebutt, we'll know more after the cpi though, that the next rate hike could be 100 basis points. where do you see this fed going? >> i think this fed is worried about inflation and i think they're committed to the inflation fight. so if they continue to see inflation staying persistently strong, which is what i believe we're going to see, they're going to be raising rates 75 basis point, 100 is not out of the question. it is not expected now but it is not out of the question.
the difference is wall street thinks when you see slow growth the fed will stop the inflation fight. they will so call pivot and start cutting rates to deal with slower growth. i don't see them doing that especially in the wake of a strong payroll report. they're committed to the inflation fight. only if we get a surprise in inflation will they back off. one quick word about surprise inflation, 17 of the last 18 months the inflation rate has beaten wall street expectations. 17 of 18. charles: right. >> it is not something that wall street has a good handle on this inflation. it has been surprising them for a year-and-a-half. charles: having said that how does someone invest in this environment? >> if you believe that inflation is persistent there are places to go like cyclical stokes basic material stocks, industrial stocks, things that would benefit from inflation.
growth stocks, technology stocks, would not benefit from the it as much. that is why they are doing so poorly because of prospect of higher interest rates as well. if you orient yourself toward that belief it has played out. energy has been the big winner this year along those lines. charles: i have less than a minute but i have to ask you in part you have a tweet you wouldn't recommend crypto but take tiny amounts of money to learn about the defi revolution. i'm bringing this up because there appears to be more efforts to hurt the more movement, recently blacklisting ethereum. what is it that the powers that peseem to be afraid of them? there are various roadblocks, blacklists what is going on? >> first of all what they did they incorporate ad private company circle which runs usdc stablecoin and told them anybody that uses the privacy protocol called tornado cash, a way to hide your transactions, to blacklist anybody that used it
or anybody that has been involved in using it. look there, are people coming out on twitter right now saying i don't want the russian government to know i donated to ukrainian war effort, so i used tornado cash to hide those transactions. charles: right. >> there are legitimate reasons for doing it. it's a big deal because it comes down to the whole point of crypto, whether or not you can have private property, you can have your own money, do what you want with it without it constantly being reported to the government. seems like they came down yesterday, no, we need to know everything you're doing with your money. if you're doing something we can't see, we're going to try to make that illegal. charles: wow. jim, wish we had more time. always a pleasure to have these conversations with you. thank you very much, appreciate it. >> thank you. charles: i want to go to chart school to bring in funds sdrat mark newton. bear market bounces like great white sharks, when they start
moving they die. i bring that up we had a pretty good bounce. >> yes we have. charles: we have 41350 area we're stalling. we haven't broke out anywhere that it might be a bear market bounce but if we stall this thing could fade quickly? >> i have tactical concerns. we're due for a little bit of consolidation. we moved up 16% in four weeks time. this 41 level is near june highs but near february, march lows. there is a lot of technical resistance there i think is important, however you have to consider that we've seen a lot of breadth improvement. technology had a huge move up. charles: get to that in a second. if we break through, maybe good news, maybe we get momentum? >> i think we push up to near 4350 middle part of september. charles: talk about a few more things, let's say we stall, say the cpi number tomorrow is to strong as jim sort of alluded to where is the potential downside?
>> my think something maximum 3900, 3850. we could see a 3 to 5% pullback. charles: i'm liking internals a little better. yesterday for the first time i can remember more 52-week highs on the new york new york stock exchange and nasdaq than a long time. it has broken through the longer term trend line t lookings like it has got a lot of room to the upside. >> that is optimistic. first time this year we've seen the move over this entire downtrend. that is certainly encouraging next few months. at a time everybody is still very pessimistic that is the thing. a lot of people missed the rally off the lows. charles: i love when i see that. so simplistic, but seems to really, really work. >> yeah. charles: small caps are working. this is the russell 2000 versus the s&p. again looking pretty good. soon it looks like it could really take off! >> this chart might not do it justice but there is a long-term trend that actually has been broken in relationship with small cap and large.
you exceeded this entire base going back this year. there are reasons for optimism to think all of sudden small caps are coming back, mid coops are coming back. that is a sign to watch for. when small and mid-cap peak and fall out of bed they're starting to come back so that is a good sign. charles: s&p 600, folks is trading at a 12 p-e ratio. treasury yields i think i read your note properly you're suggesting yields go higher? >> in the short run i think -- charles: what i'm asking you, you usually fill a gap and then go down w very this serious resistance point, we hit that, go down. any place where yields might stop going higher? >> look, right here 2.90, 2.80 that is the entire downtrends. i find downtrends are extremely useful. what is important to point out we got above the neckline above the entire head and shoulders pattern we'll r seeing. that is i don't think it proves
long-lasting. i think yields will roll over between september and end of the year that will provide fuel for technology and for growth. charles: maybe okay encouraging for a short-term, short-term bounce may have some fuel for a little bit? >> i think over the next week if there is a pullback it should happen into mid-month. we likely will turn higher into september. charles: all right. love going over these charts with you. appreciate it, mark. >> thanks. charles: i want to bring in etoro investment analyst callie cox. the market made a nice move since mid-june. i saw a poll on your etoro twitter site, 53% of the respondents says the bear market bottom has been reached. what are you telling clients? >> yeah, first shoutout to etoro twitter account, hey. we've been telling clients that is one of the biggest questions in the market right now but is it the right question? we're not so sure. we're encouraging clients to think about if they're properly prepared for all the different paths the market could take. missing early days after
recovery could be costly, even if the environment is super painful. the market moves in mysterious ways. >> it does. how are you telling them, guiding them to survive? first we have to survive a bear market to have confidence to take advantage when things get better but what are you telling them to get through this tough period? >> yeah. so, what we're doing we're really showing them the data, the cost of missing a rally, importance of being exposed to all scenarios. we're really trying to talk about bear markets as the uniquely personal experience because in all honesty it really is, when you get hammered by inflation and realize your portfolio is in the red at the same time. we're trying to give them the tools and skills necessary it evaluate their portfolio, see what they need, but at the same time, protect their sanity as well. charles: speaking of sanity if you will, small caps are really bubbling up, looking really good. i spoke, we talked about that with chart school, reddit favorites are coming to life.
are you seeing pickup, more action, people are saying i want to buy this market right now? >> yeah. so i think the thing that a lot of people have missed retail is holding and buying this whole time. you have all different types of traders when it comes to retail traders. they all do different things. but from our surveys the majority of them have been saying put here. so you know, they have that chance, that advantage to take advantage of these lower prices here, especially because their cash balances are still quite high. charles: right. >> it does make sense we're seeing a little bit of a pickup in risk. based on history, risk tends to be the first thing that rebounds in the early days of a recovery. charles: let me ask you about bitcoin, these other cryptocurrencies. they also made a very impressive rebound. maybe that winter is over. what's the appetite right now? >> yeah. i'm not quite sure winter is over. i look outside it is pretty hot but i will say the, bitcoin, crypto really fall into the same risk bucket that i was talking about a minute ago. when you see the animal spirits
and risk appetite come back into the market, you see it first in riskier areas of the market. bitcoin and crypto are benefiting there. i think there is also realization, especially as prices stabilized that crip cocontinues moving forward. capital is becoming more efficient in the sector. but there is still building at the same time. you know, some of our clients have felt comfortable especially seeing that bitcoin bottom out and crypto bottom out too. maybe tiptoe back in. see what is still there, what has value. charles: got to tell you, looks like over 24, 25,000 it is off to the races. i have 30 seconds, how are you handicapping tomorrow's cpi report? will it beat? >> my gosh. oh, man, you know, i think it bams harder and harder to say to say inflation will get higher. i said that the past few months. i feel like i should zip my lips. i think market looks for inflation to move a little
little lower. tech is rebounding strongly. we're pricing it in. we'll see, watching inflation expectations more than the headlines. charles: absolutely, callie, thank you very much, appreciate it. check this out, warren buffett has lost billions of dollars in the last quarter. japan's most famous investor lost billions of dollars in the last quarter. by the way they weren't alone. how to deal with losing money in the market, why your portfolio can be too diversified. secular bull market is still alive and well. how well? brian belski is here to give us his forecast for the next few months next. ♪
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charles: so you know the last month, really since the june 14th low the market has been pretty good. i showed you where breadth improving. short squeezes going on. this is intriguing action, but enough to get you to believe the worst is over? bringing in bmo capital markets chief investment strategist brian belski.
first the secular bear market that is intact. that is, nothing no one is arguing that is still not going on, right? >> secular bill is very much in play. the secular bull is longer term multiyear move, channel. the channel still very much in place. now we had this nice flush out where the market did a great job taking out the froth which i like to call the four horsemen of the apocalypse. taking out major problems in terms of froth. spacs, memes, meyer multiple, no revenue, no earnings type of cathie wood stocks. no offense, kathie. it was really cool what the market did, went from there categorically down and down and finally when it took out energy, when it took out energy, it took out the final general, that was the bottom. funny at the lows you saw all the bears double down, now we're really going to 3100 and
200-dollar earnings and markets always go down too much and up too much on the trend. we've been steadfastly bullish said the bottom was in place in june. could have should have rally in july. your friend mark talked about people are participating, they're not. i have meetings with long only clients all day long. long only clients are sitting on their hand waiting. >> right. >> what they're waiting for is tomorrow, more importantly they're waiting for argue and september. remember august no fed meeting but we have jackson hole. we'll hear some of this, right? september is the next fed meeting. if, hopefully, god, that we start to see an inflection point in inflation could finally come tomorrow especially with comprises falling and supply chains open, i think there is chance to see the inflection point change. is there enough -- i think august will be quite volatile because volumes are less, people are on vacation and the like. charles: that sometimes
exacerbates the move, right? >> correct. charles: if the bias is to the upside you can get large chunky moves because not a lot of volume pupil but mostly buying that can overstate to the upside, couldn't it? >> very chunky moves. it could, september is worst month of the year in terms of performance f we get ahead of ourselves in august, i don't mean to make monthly calls we still think the fourth quarter will be a very, very strong market because i think the foundation of where interest rates are going to be, the bond market has been rallying, stock market has been rallying. it already priced in 75 basis points. if inflation begins to tip the bond market is right again and the fed has to act accordingly. charles: also fourth quarter, past midterm elections. probably have a great handle on what the fed is going to or not going to do. >> yep. charles: more than likely to your point these earnings do better than wall street. >> they do. charles: blows my mind, big narrative four p-e ratio is too high. maybe it was. to your point some numbers people were saying, talking
about a small caps, ratio of 14.3, at some point the market has to be enticing for everyone? >> second quarter beat by 230 basis point. people are not talking about that. that is number one. number two it is important to talk about small and mid-cap stocks. we talk a lot in the financial markets and the consumer being 70% of the economy and our country was built on small and medium companies and the private sector is very strong. when you see the small mid-cap public sector do what it has done, that is amazing t should tell you the stock market is very strong. you talked about on the show breadth. we think the bull market is very much alive. charles: all right. brian bellky, thanks a lot. by the way brian has under cpi number. cooler, not hotter. by the way not republicans expressing outrage over the mar-a-lago rage. one notable democrat will surprise you. also the economy, it is falling off the rails much quicker than people realize. there are certain economic data
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charles: we had major breaking economic news. labor costs soared to the highest level since 1982. productivity saw the largest one year decline ever on record. joining me former chair of council of economic advisors, kevin hassett. before we get to the economic stuff, i do want to get your opinion on the fbi raid on house of president trump. kevin mccarthy says this is
weaponized rate by the justice department. do you agree with that assessment. >> yes i do. it has been going on a long time. it started in the obama administration where they used lois lerner and irs to harass conservative and foundation i was on. unmask american citizens so they could listen in on their phone calls. they broke every rule of the book back then. they're doing this time too. i don't think we should be surprised. i know america is shocked by what happened last night but amongst my friends who are close to the president none of us are shocked that the steps they will take to stop him. i think they know they can't beat him in an election. they have to come up with some way to disqualify him before the election. i think, by the way in the end that is what this is all about. it is not about some papers. what they're trying to do is find some crime they can commit him of, commit him it so he will have trouble running next time because they know they can't win. charles: it is disappointing. so, so shocking. got january 6th committee. had all the impeachments, it is
non-stop. i feel like someone's home, you have to have something concrete before you do something like this. you could have called the president up. the national archives? give me a break. >> yeah. charles: let me talk about the economy, non farm productivity fill 4.6%. steepest year-over-year decline since 1948 since they started keeping these records. labor costs came in 11%, much higher than they thought. these numbers are always associated with past recessions. where are we right now, kevin? >> we're definitely in a recession. we had a strong labor report for sure. that is something that the white house, even the fed pointing to saying we're not in recession yet. they're wrong. they're missing lessons of history. if you go back to look at the 1970s, each of the recessions in the '70s saw labor increase, employment increase for about the first half of the recession. and the reason is that when you have high inflation, right, then prices are going up faster than wages.
so a firm can reduce its real wage costs, real labor costs without laying people off. you can't do that in recession where there is no inflation. what we're seeing right now, firms are hoarding workers. they're not laying them off. real wages are going down, prices are going up faster than wages, productivity is collapsing. it all makes complete sense to anybody that stops thinks about it for a minute. anybody out there in recession denial i think it is really missing the lessons of history, also not using their noggin. this is obvious that is what is going on. charles: again i think there are some ulterior motives ironically i think the white house should actually want to be in recession rather than this inflation issue which seems a lot harder to control and you know, the fed has got to get tougher. speaking of the federal reserve, cpi data out tomorrow, do you have expectations for that? >> yeah. i think the year-over-year number will go up because of sort of, as we go deeper into the year, some lower inflation months will drop out and higher
inflation month now will come in. i think inflation has about peaked but it doesn't mean it is going down anytime soon. energy prices were down in the month. i think that will keep the top line from totally out of control but make no mistake we're very close to double-digit inflation and probably the year-over-year number will inch up because of favorable comparisons. charles: everybody is nervous. you can cut the tension with a knife. kevin hassett, thank you very much,als appreciate night great to be here. >> republicans, even some democrats are raising questions about the fbi's raid on president trump's mar-a-lago home. former new york governor, democrat andrew cuomo tweeting, doj must immediately explain the reason for its raid and it must be more than a search for inconsequential archives or it will be viewed as a political tactic and undermine any future credible investigation and legitimacy of january 6th investigations. joining me now, business and political commentator john
burnett. john, to hear someone like cuomo say as much i think a lot of people know this. i go around the media and you know, not typical cheerleading like you know, hey this is the greatest thing in the world. it feels like maybe they went too far? >> absolutely. all of america is asking why and why now right? just before the midterm elections. people are thinking about stopping trump from running for 2024 election but it is also to influence what? his actually dynamic record in terms of endorsements, leading into the midterm elections. so they want a two for. they want to influence the midterm election as well as 2024. charles: it is interesting to me also, because the media is trying hard to pit desantis, ron desantis, governor of florida against president trump and desantis is smart also. listen, he is backing trump candidates and he put out a tweet immediately yesterday talking about how this raid was ridiculous. we have it up on the screen as well. do you think this could actually
galvanize the republican party? >> absolutely. whether it would be facebook, twitter, instagram, trump supporters are ignited, right? they see this as a power grab. they see it as something that is unprecedented because it is, right? so it is only going to ignite the base as well as ignite, catch the attention of independents and those moderate democrats as you pointed out. the former disgraced governor andrew cuomo actually having an issue with it. charles: want to talk to you about business because you're an amazing man as well, a big fan of small business. nfib a small tick, optimism is still down. look at the chart it is really ugly but they're struggling with a lot of things including inflation which is the single most important problem, the highest level of their worry since 1979. they're paying a big price, right? trying to deal with the costs. they can't hire people because they can't compete with big companies. they're in a real bind, aren't they? >> right this type of inflation
is threefold. they're experiencing wholesale cost inflation, right? which is driving their costs. they're experiencing wage inflation, people demanding more money to come back to work. still even challenging as they increase wages. and too much money chasing too few goods. so all those three factors of inflation is driving up costs, putting pressure on labor markets, right? that's why they're actually experiencing and getting a feeling like, yeah, you know what? i'm a little optimistic but i'm more hopeful than optimistic. why? because the level of uncertainty is high. it actually jumped 12 points. charles: 30 seconds to go, where are you on recession? isn't inevitable if we're not already in it? >> we're already in it. just matter of degree in terms of the third quarter and fourth quarter and how far it goes into 2023. charles: there is a good chance it will be a moot question debate if we have another two,
three quarters of this. no one will be able to push back against it. unfortunately i don't know how america will deal with it though. john, thanks a the lot. always appreciate it. coming up investing can be very hard just ask warren buffett but we have to live with all the scenarios. luckily we have over the last few years. now it is time to embrace them in a fundamental lesson. we have joe gerand to share his thoughts and knowledge with us right after the break. ♪.
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♪. charles: so i know many of you are part of this new investor revolution and have only been involved in this market the last two or three years. first i want to say congratulations because you've gotten amazing education. essentially covers everything, i'm talking the entire spectrum of investing. the thing now knitting all of this together so you have long-term success. we have goldman sachs personal
finance head, joe durant. joe, the first lesson, everyone takes losses. i want to share headlines with the audience. buffett takes $44 billion losses mostly in the stock portfolio. softbank takes a 23 billion-dollar hit. mas's son will take fewer risks. tiger global, they blame inflation for for a hit that takes down their portfolio 50%. these are titans. how do you brace people for losses that can be really big? >> first thing you have to do, been diversified. one of the things you see, they tend to be fairly concentrated investors. they have been incredible long-term performers but for most individuals you want to be diversified so you're not overly exposed to any one area when things go down, rule number one. number two, make sure you're inside of your risk portfolio. we're taking care of people's
life-changing wealth which they cannot afford to lose very often heading into retirement. make sure you can sit tight. not how much risk your portfolio can stand and how much makes you comfortable to let you sleep at night. most people don't go through the exercise. we do, and if you don't sit tight with declines, by the way you have 20% declines every six years. average recession market falls 24%. it is worst when it has gone down that much. so you want to make sure you stay within your risk tolerance, your ability to sit tight and be well-diversified. charles: let me ask but the diversification thing. i have my own research business. i look at hundreds of thousands of portfolios. i find people are too diversified, they have too many funds. they have different names, they sound cute and sexy but hold the same stocks. i think this up, warren buffett five stocks are 70% of his portfolio.
bank of america, chevron, coke, american express and he is loading up on oxy. can you be overdiversified as well? >> you talk about double positions in different portfolios. that happens quite often people come in they are basically owning the same positions but in different places. there you're paying for, not o mizeing your tax situation because of harvest for losses. you're paying ties to underserve individual positions. sometimes one manager sell as position, your other manager is buying. so you can have too much complexity of a portfolio. one of our primary jobs is to make sure everything is consistent and aligned accomplishing what you need to do in your portfolio. yes, if you own the s&p 500, you don't need to own another s&p 500 portfolio manager, because they own the same thing. to manage costs and taxes and frankly simplification it is helpful to have a unified
strategy. to make sure everything is aligned. charles: joe, i got 20 seconds, how are you positioned now for the sort of volatility in these big question marks over this market? >> well i think the first thing is to remember the market already priced in a recession. the market at its low was down around 23%. as i mentioned the average decline is 24% in recession so already price. likely more volatility but the market is, might go up or down but you should be invested in a way that you sit tight. don't make any abrupt moves. they sell when it feels good, which is after it has gone down and buy after it has gone up that is the worst thing you do. discipline in decision making. if inflation continues stocks are the best place to be, over the month they tend to outperform, tend to pass pricing pressure on to make more profits. be invested in stocks. you don't want to make any abrupt moves especially in declines. charles: joe, really appreciate
the opportunity to tap into your experience. i know you helped a lot of people. you helped our audience today as well. thank you a lot. of course we'll stay on the markets when we return. we'll talk about the short squeeze phenomenon that's going on and also take a look at the global economic picture as well. more "making money" right after this. ♪.
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charles: everyone's waiting with bated breath, the cpi number in the morning but let's face it, the report, it used to barely move the needle, right? in the past no one talked about it. what we're doing trying to figure out, trying to handicap the path the federal reserve might take from here. joining me to discuss macro compass founder. al, you actually tweeted about the biggest global monetary fiscal tightening in decades around the world, having mostly negligible effect on things. how did we get here? what is going on? were we so far in the hole not meeting needle? what is going on? >> charles, always a pleasure to be with you. the caveat to that the biggest single asset class in the world,
chinese real estate market actually got quite a hit. it is $55 trillion market, now coming down crashing, right? so that has taken a hit but i'm talking more about systemic developed market events, you know, some stresses. i haven't seen that yet. i've seen pressure at the fringes. i've seen unprofitable tech companies being there, not yet got there yet to the core. i think it's a matter of time after all. charles: a lot of people say exactly the intent of central banks. the term i keep hearing that the fed has to break something. is that true? >> well every time they actually try to hike significantly to try to fight inflation they ended up breaking something, right? in 2000, in 2008, 2018 they broke different things. the dot-com bubble, the housing market. ultimately 2019 the repo market. very nature of the system. what we do get more and more debt, charles, every single time. not just the government but private system does.
to refinance this new debt and keep the credit oil going through the system rates need to be lower and lower. every time the fed jacks them up there is a problem popping up somewhere, right? charles: that seems to be a dilemma. ultimately the fed wants positive rates, that is another goal, ultimately, it is going to be impossible to sustain that though, right? >> yeah. i mean they can try to get there. most of the times in the past when they were serious about inflation, brought real interest rates to positive levels. kept them there for a while. in europe, for example, in the '90s, you had to bring real interest rates to very high levels to fight inflation. it took a while to bring inflation down. they can do that. they will probably do that because of the mandate but they will end up generating problems here and there for sure. charles: how do you think people should be positioned ahead of this report tomorrow? >> well i think because the fed told us that there they would be data dependent, this is probably the biggest most important inflation print i can remember,
right? it will determine what the path of federal reserve would be. likely be defensive. watch the repo first, charles. from there we immediately handicap what the next action for the fed practical reserve would be. we'll take action from there. charles: i wish i had more time. i went long in other segments but you, my man were worth the wait. >> my pleasure, charles. anytime you want. >> i want to bring in managing director principal david dietze. let's pick up on the cpi conversation. everyone has a theory on this, what are you looking at, what do you expect, what do you think the reaction to the number will be? >> i think number will be lower than it was last month, because the headline number is so dependent on food and energy. when we look what it going on in the energy market and gas pump, we see a pullback. headline number is less. consensus 8.7. it will be somewhere in around there. as far as i'm concerned i don't want my clients to overreact to
that number. it will have an impact as the other guest said, that is data depend end. there will be another data point for august and september before the meeting. plus we'll get that even more important jobless rate number for august in the first week of september. so all of that will be factored in. let's not overreact here. charles: initial jobless claims edging higher. it is a lot more forward-looking than the jobs report itself. maybe we should start zeroing for more. even though the wall street said cpi number will come down every month since september will be wrong, will happen eventually. >> that inflation number is a backward looking number. they're taking the last 12 months, what investors care about the next 12 months. a lot of emphasis being placed what happened in july. it is just one month. same thing with the jobless numbers. that is a rear view looking number. charles: mentioned a pullback in energy. one of your favorite stocks is exxonmobil. >> absolutely. energy prep spiked up to 140.
now just under 90. bade on last legislation there is huge discouragement for anyone to develop new resources but guess what? the green people are pushing us faster than we can replace our cars, we replace what we need to heat our homes and so forth. there is long term demand for energy. no one is producing it. going with the biggest, best, most diversified exxon integrated oil company. we know in a shaky market we like to see dividends, got 4% plus dividend. they have increased dividend last 25 years. that is aristocrat. charles: that is the very definition of aeries aeries cocontract. they didn't move by a penny. they're not all equal. short squeezes are big, i love short squeezes when you're looking for trading opportunities, will that continue? >> there are still a number about stocks actually reasonable quality which have been pounded by the short sellers and now of course you have a huge
percentage of the float up to 36%, 40%. many days to cover that. if there is any positive catalyst, up people, retail investors pile in the stock can get moving up. of course the short sellers capitulate, they cover. that sends the stock even higher t can be a good way to make money. >> also, we've got 30 seconds, you like capital one, intel and pfizer. i guess these are all under the banner of quality names, right? they have been around for hundreds of years. great management. been through all the ups and downs, you can sleep at night with the portfolio? >> capital one, one of the best franchises in the country. is down 45%. everyone knows don't leave home without it story. they're reinvesting in technology, closing branches. smaller dividend, 2.1% but only 10% of their profits so they have room to increase it and i think, interest rates ultimately will go higher. that is manna from heaven for the banks because the net interest margins will expand. charles: of course they do have some good commercials.
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than $200 billion going into other stuff and picking winners and losers into society and it'll be joined by a so called inflation act and the script is the same, bigger government led by an army of 87,000 new irs agents on the hunt marching down main street looking for you. i got to tell you, somewhere president xi of china is nodding his head of president biden saying, great work, player. president obama later admitted there wasn't any kind of shovel ready jobs with ceo jeff [inaudible]. >> was not as shovel ready as we expected. charles: yeah, lots of laughs. i watched the stock market as maybe a gauge of effectiveness as programs and obama care passed and the only stocks that group were insurance stocks and guarantee profits and administration poured billions into solar projects and the only stock was next air energy and
zoomed past exxon mobile as that went down and more recently $1 trillion infrastructure plan in november, nothing so far and material and investor sectors down big time. these are material program, folks. they reward friends and buy influence and grab more power. be ware. liz claman, everyone is on pins and needles. take us through the last hour of trading. liz: yeah, grabbing the last hour of trading. if yesterday was manic monday, we're calling today tense tuesday and here's why. about all market participants and the big fund managers, institutional trieders, individual investors are wading on one -- waiting on one, one key piece of data that has the power to force the fed's hand northed or south in september and we don't get that piece of data till tomorrow. until then, we are looking at weakness and real ten