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tv   Making Money With Charles Payne  FOX Business  August 18, 2022 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT

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neil: oil prices in and out of $90 a barrel. so the demand side still kind of there but nothing like it needs to be. here is charles payne. charles: neil, thank you very much, my friend. good afternoon, everyone, i'm charles payne. this is "making money." stocks are meandering as the market is waiting for signals, signs anything. make no mistake, there is a hell of a tug-of-war beneath the surface. i have the take for the rest of the summer. a lot of financial noise in the media about bed, bath & beyond and meme stocks. i will share why the busting the shorts is to get the media and regulators to do their bidding and why they hate your
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independence. tweet me your thoughts @cvpayne later in the show. we await to hear the judge will release affidavit that spurredded raid on trump's mar-a-lago. can we unify? the american success story. john paul dejoria, is it still alive? he joins us at 2:30. that and much more on "making money." ♪. charles: it is certainly the word of the week but i think maybe the rest of the summer, nebulous, right? it is a word you hear a lot. you don't talk about it as adjective or form of a cloud or hazy after concept, unclear, vague, or ill-defined. certainly it applies, right. the stock market we continue to struggle with making up our mind what the federal reserve's intentions are after perusing nebulous comments from yesterday's fomc minutes. sure there will be a couple rate
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hikes, we all figured that. but there were contradictions and additional questions that came think about it, initially the market rallied on the news and we went lower in the last two hours of trading. of course there has been a debate throughout largely one-sided right, about the bounce off the june lows. it is impressive. we hit some amazing milestones yet the street remains in the bearish camp for the most part. for them the notion of a new bear market is nebulous, too early to call. these days when the pros are not sure, they default to something like the worst-case scenario. this will be the case when it clears up, whether the fed whether or not they will pause or not. this is what we're all kind of waiting for so everything is less cloudy. according to bank of america surveys of fund managers a lot of folks still think we have to get inflation down. fewer think it has to be lower than 4% in july but still key. here is what is coming on that is interesting, that the s&p dropped below 3500. remember this morning -- initial
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jobless claims is a big one as well. 300,000 folks are looking for there. this morning came in 250,000. we're a long way from that being the key. there are others on the other side of this whole thing that actually see a soft landing. they think the fed will pull this thing off. if so this market can go through the roof. talking about jpmorgan. they say 4.7% global gdp, cpi by the end of the year, folks. think about that for a moment. that is amazing. risk appetite is justified. some on wall street say if you're buying you're smart. increasingly likelihood of a soft landing. that was a bad word, a bad phrase two weeks ago. more jumping on that bandwagon. we got some folks call goldilocks report from the philadelphia fed this is a tough one. we brought in some of the best to help us at the top of the show. slatestone chief market strategist, kenny polarky, sarah kuntz and nicholas wealth
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management director, david nicholas. market bouncing around. everything seems predicated on the fed will they pause sooner, will it be later, sarah your thoughts on that? >> i think it is not going to be as quick as people think it is. i think that the fed is not giving a super aggressive message here but i don't think that they plan to just turn around and say, okay, joking, interest rates back to zero in q1, 23 the way some people think they are. charles: david, you eased out of that huge cash position. by the way just in time to catch some of this bounce. so you were right to stay out, you got back in, the question of course, are you scalping, taking profits or will you ride this further? >> yeah, charles, we're not going to take profits. if you're in the indexes i think you probably take some profits. i think indexes are stagnantly sideways, if you're a stock-picker you can make a lot of money. stocks have either tailwinds or headwinds. we want to own companies with a
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lot of momentum behind them. on is a one of those names we talked about big on your show. we look at freeport-mcmoran, fcx, is another name we think for the copper market, you don't get ev growth without copper growth. charles: yeah. >> that is example of a name you can buy regardless what indexes are doing and with it make good money. charles: so funny, i have subscribers in sqm along the same lines of that, lithium side. we're getting crushed today. i told everybody hang on. we'll be back. even the great stories can have bumps in the road. kenny, you've been long but you always sort of one foot in that lower camp we'll go a little bit lower. you got to admit the resolve in this market has been impressive, right? >> it's been really impressive and i love it because i am invested so i'm enjoying the ride on the way up and it has been impressive. i'm still with that camp with sarah, i don't think the fed is going to pivot. i think 75 basis point what they come with in september at least they should even though i know
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there is some talk about that but i think they have to stay strong and stay at 75 basis points. then i think the market backs off as we move into september, october. charles: the most optimistic on the street, call it at jpmorgan, we have his things up here. a soft landing. okay, sarah, is that farfetched? the data seems to be getting a little bit better and better. >> i think that this is a bear market rally. i would be incredibly nervous about thinking there is a real soft landing here. there is a ton of geopolitical risk has not yet begun to be priced in, right? issues like china, taiwan, what that means particularly for the tech stocks which are names i watch closely. i would be, you know, locking your gains if you like them, keep buying if the like the prices but i do not think, i think we're in the eye of the storm. i don't think it is anywhere near over. charles: kenny, what metrics you use? some say inflation is the key. below 4% the fed begins to
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pivot. some say no, unemployment, 300,000. that is the number, s&p below 3500. where in your mind does the fed pivot? >> i think the cpi number. below 4%. anything above 4% i think forces the fed to have to keep their foot on the gas. i don't see how he gets 4.7% by december. that is four 1/2 months away. we're at 8 1/2%. something dramatic has to happen. i don't see it. for me the cpi number is the most important. i think we see an uptick in unemployment as we get into the fall. we already heard from companies announcing and laying off. we started to see that. i think that number is creeping up as well. charles: david for all the talk the stocks market is irrational how do you explain the bond market? yields lower, we vin version, and at least they're forecasting a shallow recession?
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>> stock market and bond market camp can't both be right. i think the bond market is probably right but not as pessimistic. that is great the yields go down but telling us something, right? the bond market says we should be concerned what is coming around the corner. i think this will be shallower, i think we get through any type of slowdown. i think the bond market is saying we should be prepared for a lot worse. stock market doesn't necessarily believe that right now. this comes to earnings revision. as long as earnings don't get revised down too heavily i think we can get the soft landing. you need to be cautious. other than the right names from here, charles. charles: let's talk about that. sarah, you like sales force, crm. what is the deal with that and this whole big tech space? why do they stand out? >> if you look at their numbers year-over-year, they don't have -- they have some loss, right? it is a good time to buy in. i don't think you will double your money there but it's a lot
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safer than hardware companies and chip companies right now and certainly safer than the ad-supported companies. charles: you liked used clothes and something i thought that was only popular in bohemian circles, is that a national play? >> i grew up thrift shopping in the midwest. so i think it really is. i like poshmark. that is ton of growth but established names like etsy. poshmark has a full. charles: full disclosure i boughtfy first thing on poshmark, it is so tacky i don't tell you what it is. you talked about megacaps, they used to be the same but they're not all the same. look here recently. after pell has made a huge move. microsoft not far behind it. but at the bottom you have meta which is struggling, you got nvidia which was everybody's darling. do we has the apples of the world or the also-rans for now?
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>> no. i won't chase apple. i already own it. i will buy it on weakness but not pay plus for it. if you want opportunity, look at names you appear to be having. meta is not a name i was never into that. not one that i consider. nvidia is name i own. i would consider taking advantage there. i would take advantage ever coinbase, i think there is a brewing issue around coinbase with the transition in crypto and ethereum that will really benefit coinbase. i think that has real upside opportunity for it. charles: david, i have 30 seconds left, are you doing anything new here? >> we just today bought uber. i think that is a name, still down well below its 2020 highs, down pretty well below its 2022 highs. i think that is oversold. i think as we get back out, lower fuel prices that helps the bottom line for a company like uber. it's a name we put to work. we'll see. charles: take uber to the thrift
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store and use coin to buy your goods. kenny, david, sarah, thank you very much, appreciate it. there is one area of americans who are doing extremely well. that's the rich. i have the ceo of marinemax. that is the largest seller of yachts and boats in this country. guess what? business is booming. apple has been a beast for years. but now it is facing its biggest test. it is on the cusp. if it comes up short it could be bad for the entire market. get ready for chart school. that is next. ♪. finding my way forward with node-positive breast cancer felt overwhelming at times.
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hi, i'm denise. i've lost over 22 pounds with golo in six months and i've kept it off for over a year. i was skeptical about golo in the beginning because i've tried so many different types
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of diet products before. i've tried detox, i've tried teas, i've tried all different types of pills, so i was skeptical about anything working because it never did. but look what golo has done. look what it has done. i'm in a size 4 pair of pants. go golo. (soft music) charles: the market still resolved, still trying to hang on to this june bounce. well, they have a couple of hurdles. i want to bring in thrasher analytics founder andrew thrasher. this is impressive to me. 92% of the s&p above the 50-day moving average. you have a few of the sectors where all, 100% are above their 50-day moving average. the only argument i hear counter to this with so many, maybe let's say over certain rsi, relative strength or whatever, other indications, 70, 75% may be overbought here but what does it tell you to have this kind of
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participation in this move? >> it's from a broad market perspective it's a good thing. participation in a uptrend is not bearish. always remember the stock market is truly a market of individual stocks. we have a lot of them rising that is a positive for the index. to the point about mean reversion, yes typical it is we see everyone on one side of the teeter-totter, we could see a pullback, the idea of broad participation is not a bad thing. we had exact opposite happening into december, january last year. we had few stocks participating. that is a bad sign with less stocks going up. that is what causes market to go down. not with a broad participation of them going up. charles: if there is sort of pullback, revision, if you pullback if you will, do you expect it to be a big one or just sort -- what would a recess might be a key test for it? >> i think if we can see the s&p hold above 4200, if you want to be closer 4250, we stay in that
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range, 4200 the lower end of it i think the bulls could have still control of the tape. charles: right. >> if we get back below 4700, that is where things get more worrisome. charles: i saw you tweet about the vix. i got to tell you, there was a time bears had said the vix had to 40. 40 would be up here. it never came near that. it was basing a lot. what is the volatility per index telling us? >> it is consolidating and consolidating the environment for a spike. i won the award for that theory, i wrote a paper forecasting volatility tsunami. when we see periods of consolidation and vix starts to build, dispersion drops, that is what creates environment for volatility spike. we're seeing that on intraday basis right now. i wrote a special note this morning. we're not seeing it on daily, weekly time frames which is good thing. short time period we're having higher risk of volatility moving higher. >> talk about apple.
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you've been telling us for a long time. this is the main name. gene munster put a target at 250 over the next couple years. dan ives is saying 220. here's the thing, right? we hit a high in january, let's say it was 182 and then we had another try in february. we made a pretty good move, it hit 175. then we had another try in april, 178. this is a huge move, 34% off the lows since june. that is impressive but still below the levels it fell before. is this the moment of truth, and drew? >> i continue to believe the megacaps are having huge control apple specifically. apple is making new relative highs. s&p, we're at fresh highs right now. it continued to show strong moves. we're about 16% above the 50-day moving average that is a little bit stretched but when you're looking like the previous analyst, multiyears, they don't care about that when we look at the sentiment towards apple we're 64% bullish. we were down around 20%
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comparatively in january we were at 80%. we're not back to peak levels of sentiment for apple but we are at the higher end of the range. the fact it is breaking out on relative basis is a good sign. it is definitely a barometer for the market. traders feel good when they see apple performing well. charles: they certainly do. my portfolio feels better too. andrew, thank you for, i didn't know you won all those awards. we'll talk about it next time. coming up the labor market do is it at sight as they say it is? even the fed yesterday cast some doubts. we have one of the bests on the street, chris lowe breaking it down. this is not stopping americans from buying yachts. i have the biggest seller in the business up next. ♪
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charles: just breaking here, major news, a judge says there are portions of the trump affidavit that could actually be unsealed today. the judge is giving the justice department another week to propose additional redactions. meanwhile there is a sigh of relief this morning when the philly fed survey came out on manufacturing. the street was expecting a read of negative five which, we actually had a rebound and a really nice rebound, 12 basis points that lifted the overall number to plus 6.2% for august but is it a goldilocks report? some are saying just that. we have fhn financial chief economist chris lowe. chris, i went through the report. i was really surprised. there were really amazing things there. prices paid came down a lot. prices received came down a lot for the consumer. does it change your outlook at all? >> it does a little bit. i think it will also change the fed's out look a little bit. charles: too good for the fed.
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>> they watch the surveys. and stepping back looking at the bigger picture in the july data, what you're seeing this unrelenting drumbeat of tightening financial conditions and slowing economy, we see parts of the economy beginning to bounce back. services in the ism index, now the philly area, outlook survey, mine you, it goat pummeled the prior two months right. >> bounced off the low. charles: expectations are still negative even though improved. that is negative as well. >> that is right too but it's improvement. we're seeing these little spotty bits of improvement in the economy. charles: what struck me they do these special questions every now and then, they had a special question about prices, in the current quarter, they were able to raise prices 10%, the main question was only 6%. so there is still pricing power out there. this is again good for corporate profits but not what the fed wants to see, right?
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>> no. that is going to be the big fear and we saw that in the minutes the overwhelming focus still we've got to get inflation down and we have to do it quickly. charles: what else stood out to you in the minutes yesterday? >> well there was, for one thing a correction of something everybody jumped on the day of the fed meeting and that was when powell said the fed funds rate is now consistent with a neutral fed funds rate. charles: right. >> they corrected that, it is consistent with long-run neutral when inflation is too but not short-run neutral when inflation is 8 1/2. charles: was that rookie mistake, someone that couldn't come from the economist -- >> i think exhaustion after nine months fighting a battle they're not making much traction on, yeah, a mistake. charles: yesterday i had danielle dimartino booth in here. we had a great conversation about the labor force because the st. louis fed put out a fascinating piece. i wish everyone would read it.
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we always talk about the jobs market as number of job vacancies and how many people are actively looking for jobs to determine the tightness of the labor market but a lot of jobs have been people going from employment to employment. so there are millions of people who are in the labor force looking for a new gig but they're working right now. so it is so ironic we had the conversation because any fomc minutes, this jumped out at me, several participants also observed the labor market might not be as tight as some indicators suggested. they noted the data provided by payroll processor adp employment reported in the household survey both seemed to imply a softer labor market. could we be reading the labor market wrong? >> it's possible. charles: [laughter] >> here's, that adp line jumped out at me and the reason is adp of course monthly predicts private payrolls bah they haven't been doing last two months. charles: retooling but must still be talking to the fed.
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>> they give their raw data to the fed and the fed has 450 hp hp -- phds what i'm hearing from the fed, they flailed the employment number every month. the household survey picks upturns before the payroll sure say does. it peaked in march. yeah, it is entirely possible job growth not as strong as the payroll survey suggestions. >> i don't know why, the media is loathe to mention the household survey anything other than u3. i got 20 seconds. i will go back. you've been more or less very hawk irk for lack of a better word. do you still feel like the fed has a long way to go? >> yes. i've been doing this for 35 years. for 35 years the fed says they will tighten and don't tighten as much as they say. what's changed from the 35 years? we're back in a period of high inflation. if you look back at the '70s and early '80s they ended up having to go further than they
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said they would go and i think that is where they are now. i think we'll hear that message from powell at jackson hole next week. charles: chris, great stuff. appreciate it. appreciate you and all your 35 years of experience. while the economic walls are closing in on most people there are somewhere nothing but clear sailing from here. in fact the overwhelming shares of trillions of dollars, you know the excess savings economists always tell us about, it is in the account of the rich. they like yolo too, they do it different than rest of us. they buy boats and yachts. that thrills my next guest, the ceo of marinemax, bret mcgill. full disclosure we met at a yacht event. i was a keynote speaker. you guys were fantastic and everyone had a smile on their face because you're always making money. how is business? i want to ask you that, i will start by tilling you i got a hint. googled the nearest marinemax
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near me, said by appoint only. any business that says appointment only you're doing pretty good. if i need a boat can you put in a good word? >> i will put in a good word and get you to the closest store, that is for sure. charles: how is it going? how is your business going? >> business is great. it's amazing that you know, pre-pandemic we were doing really well. the pandemic hit. it was pretty scary time. after that, guess what, everybody wanted to be out on the water. one thing with the trends of boating have always been in place people want to be out on the water, escape some of the stresses of life, get out with memories for families on the water. the neat thing is we have a lot of new entrants into boating. >> a lot of new people. charles: i want to pick up on that. we talk about metrics and turning points.
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pivots. what are the broad economic challenges really start to impact your business? >> you know, we've been a public company for almost 25 years. we've been through the ups and downs, we survived them all but high gas prices really don't affect us like some people might think. inflation really isn't quite as tough on us either unless it becomes real severe and you know, i think the level of customers that at least marinemax we're dealing with, a little bit of a higher net worth customer, really kind of shields us from that. dealing with a very resilient klein. so i think that puts us in a separate category. we purposed growing the company in their direction. that has been our strategy, to continue not only small boats on inland markets but all the coastal markets. our expansion into super yachts. charles: i want to ask you about that -- >> real resilient. charles: i have two minutes. puck up that as the last question.
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i want to add on we live in extraordinarily aspiration world. i can't believe the people buy expensive watches. people go on the great vacations. i talk about yolo for a reason. how is that impacting your business? i saw a headline in forbes, spring of last year, said the industry was on track for a boom. the aspirational part of this people watching this, this is not out of their reach, right? how many of your customers started off as average folks who built their way into being able to afford up with of these boats? >> that is the key, people start out 19, 20-foot boats growing up with their family. they get a job, a little wealthier, into 30, 40, 50 footer. we have people that started 30-foot sea ray, 25-foot sea ray, own a 170-foot super watt. maybe those store riffs not as many but people graduate into boating. it is aspirational. they find they like it so much
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the larger boats get them out into different places in the country or the world. charles: that is a report card on the american dream. i have 30 seconds. ig marinas. you bought them, $480 million cash. how does that expand your business? is that high-end luxury part of your business, the higher end? >> it sure is. we expanded a couple years ago with super yacht business with frazier, johnson and igi marinas. we're able to take care of the customer as they go around the world in some of the most iconic places, u.s. virgin islands, saint martin, miami, it gives ecosystem for our customers to let us take care of them. they feel confident now. it is transformational acquisition. this gets us into more recurring revenue more stable in a time we're in right now. that is a very exciting acquisition for our company. charles: congratulations, brett, i do hope one day i can afford
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one of your boats. i'm working toward it. >> we'll get one in the front yard. charles: you have to open the store. you guys are making so much money you work when you want to. thanks a lot. >> we'll get it figured out. charles: pessimism in the u.s. is growing. studies show americans on both sides of the aisle well, they hate each other. i will give you my takeaway on the so-called meme stock movement and why i'm glad you're fighting back. i don't always, we don't all have to invest the same way but you should not take the disrespect that you're getting. i will give you the history on shorting next. ♪. if you shop at walmart, you know
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♪. charles: all right, so lots of comments being made in the financial media about this so-called meme stock movement and the news of course out of bed, bath & beyond. once again there is a sense of
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dancing on the graves of retail investors mostly for getting out of their lanes. now instead of forking over the money to the experts and these folks actually have the audacity to buy troubled companies wall street hates. of course remember this, wall street once loved all of these companies. they took them public. ran the shares up to much higher level. be that as it may, just as the shorts found ways to leverage their attempts to push these stocks down, by the way, make no mistake, that is exactly what happens when the big shorts get in and push these stocks down, the same thing is sort of happened on the other side of equation. retail investors are finding ways also to maybe a few tricks of their own, let's put it that way. wall street has been screaming bloody murder about this whole thing while the media resorted to name-calling, and openly rooting for individual investors, regular people to lose their money! fighting back against the shorts, folks, i got to tell you it is not new. from the moment all those guys got together under the
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buttonwood tree there have been schemes to make money on failure also to induce failure and on the other side people are playing the other side of the trade. check this out, headline from "the new york times," august second, 1992, a fast and loose short buster. the article began with this line, listen to this, ranking up there with mom and apple pie running abusive short sellers out of the market after disrepute tiff shorts can whisper ugly untrue stories into the regulators, provoke undeserving selloffs of stocks perfectly good companies. i think we heard a lot of that today. the regulators should go after them! it is not good, it is not fair, they're doing something illegal! the thing is busting the shorts can be highly lucrative. i got to tell you i saw the short squeeze coming. i tweeted about it in june and earlier this month. all the stocks i tweeted about, they went up huge, triple-digit gains. it was pretty easy to see it
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coming. here are the thing i have a soft spot for all those companies, my own company, once publicly-traded the shorts ganged up on us at one time. i filed to sell all my stock, it was a rookie move. i got a call from a buddy on the street for eons, he said listen, huge ammo for the shorts, they will become more aggressive. so that is what is happening withed about bath beyond. this is huge mistake for ryan cohen to be made, it will be worse if he sold the stock he was talking about being a long-term holder. here is the thing with respect to the media, saying that he sold all of his stock already, i don't know. nobody knows that. he doesn't have to sell it at all. he filed to sell. we'll see what happens. my intention was not to sell all my stock, it was great fodder for the shorts. what we're seeing with these headlines is the kind of deliberate, awful reporting that comes with disdain, disdain for
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retail investors. all right. you know, i have my own method of investing. i have written two books on the market and trading so-called meme stock traders they have their own way to do it. i'm rooting for them. it is david and goliath story and david and goliath battle i want them to win. i hope think expand their knowledge, expand their portfolios around when you're in the market you start to think about other things. people are making big money on this. don't let the media tell you everybody is losing. did you hear about jake freeman, made $110 million on bed, bath & beyond. he had a little more seed money than most of us. people are making money and losing money. here is the deal, i had time every stock you could make and lose money on, the list is 7500 long. of course every public stock out there. you're in the fight for other reasons. you want to take it to the man. again i don't blame you. we're seeing this at every level of society.
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politics, schools, institutions. people want to just make things right. here's the bottom line, you have a right to invest and trade any way you want without being dragged by the establishment and i just say good luck to you and you will never hear a bad word from me. now that i have shared my thoughts on this whole movement and the actions to curb it i would love to hear from you. tweet me @cvpayne. i will try to read as many as i can at the end of the show. meanwhile pessimism is running ram pan. americans are openly admitting they hate each other. what will it take to unify us? john paul dejoria is next.
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the idea maybe they can find more friendship from social media than they can in their own community. it's a mess. i was really think about this the other day. i want to speak to someone who isn't always pushing an agenda, someone who can really keep it real. i want to bring in paul mitchell hair care, patron tequila cofounder, john paul dejoria. you're the real deal. we haven't talked a couple years. just so people know, you and a buddy borrowed 700 bucks. you slept in a car. you went door-to-door with paul mitchell hair products. made it a success story. you did something better with patron, became the hottest brand in the whole liquor industry. what i want to talk about more than business is the country. because you crisscross this country all the time. you always had ideas how to make things better. what are your thoughts where we are now, the sort of anger, the separation what is the reason for it? >> you're 100% correct. i would think the majority of
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the reason with all due respect is washington be quiet. i see politicians as well as several news stations pitting people against one another, it is rich, 1%, get the money from them, they caused this. oh, no, this group, they're bad, we're good. they make the promises, put me into office i will unite both groups, i'm used to doing that. they don't. they reverse it. charles: yeah. >> there is call kinds of excuses. there is no crisis at the border. there is. people are not stupid anymore. when young people, even people that are older like me hear this stuff, we say, why are you lying to us? you're supposed to be heading up the country. why are you lying to us. people realize also that you're pitting one against another. you're saying these guys are bad, you doesn't like them. these guys are bad you don't like each other. now you're pitting against everything this group does, against everything this group
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does, vice versa, you have to be right. what people realize in the nation, masses people want to join that they think that group is right is made of individuals. the individual has a power of one. they don't have to listen to this stuff. politicians stump for votes, why you're doing it for votes, pitting one group of americans against another group. stop it this is america. it's we the people of the united states of america and i think if you were to stop that, teachers are speaking up now. teachers are saying that, hey, we don't want to teach anymore. one we're being underpaid and being forced to put this woke in. why don't you let people be free? this is america. we don't want one group to tell us what to do. charles: right. >> we want people, we want parents, teachers to work together. so that is the answer, stop pitting one another because they're smart. americans -- charles: i wish i had tambourines i would be shaking them as hard as i could. i went long with this show to my
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own opinions on something, so i'm down to 30 seconds. is the american dream still alive and well in this country? >> it definitely is. i have an organization that i sponsor of homeless people. i built a shelter for them. i built a facility for entrepreneurs to teach them. i put over a million bucks into it. these homeless people paid nothing. we gave them what it took. they had no money but they sold close to $200,000 the last 16 months because we gave them the opportunity. even for homeless there is opportunity. when you mentioned about tequila, patron is still on fire. it is the number one fastest growing liquor category, all tequila there is on the planet. so a lot of people are wanting to treat themselves with something good. why do you do this? because the american dream is alive. it is alive. you can do good things. charles: it is. >> you can do good things, you can buy good things, you can help others. it is still alive. don't give up on america. you may want to give up on some of the politicians, don't give
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up on america. in the long run it will come out okay. we'll be a country. charles: amen. john paul, next time you get a lot more time. we we needed this shot in the arm. >> you got it buddy. peace, love, happiness to all of my people. charles: of course. one way for the american dream is the stock market. i'm thrilledhave young successful investors on my show. my next guest caught my attention with her brillian research. cameron dawson. cameron, a lot of folks follow the sort of trend and it feels like we're stuck. you called this market to the downside before everybody else. a lot of people called it after it moved down. you saw it moving down. what do you see now? >> market surprised a lot of people and ability to push through resistance. charles: resolve has been pretty impressive. >> it is incredible. it created we've seen things like momentum and breadth through the number of names participating in the rally,
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trigger signs would point to much better forward returns. so it has been a very powerful rally, but to your point we see some signs we could stall out in the near term we need to be very aware of. charles: so it has been more resolved than you thought. sounds like you're not as bearish as you were. but i read in your work this term, dangerous divergence. it caught my attention. what is that? >> we go back to the june lows. what we saw is that the market, the equity market bottomed around june 14th, june is 15th. we saw tops in big macro things. we saw oil top. yields topped. dollar topped. fed expectations for hawkishness topped. this created a boost to the equity market that allowed valuations to surge. valuations are up 20% since that june low. what is happening in the last couple of weeks is those macrofactors that started moving in the opposite direction. charles: right. >> so yield -- charles: dollar is stronger, yields are going up and the fed may be getting more hawkish?
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>> exactly. we don't think that divergence can last forever. essentially the fed is going out telling people, don't call it a pivot, we didn't pivot. the bond market is now believing them. we've seen yields rise. we've seen pricing in of rate cuts in early 2023 get removed. we're no longer pricing that in. but the stock market hasn't quite got the picture yet. charles: the stock market is no the canary in the coal mine. i don't know what the animal would be but it ain't a canary. talk about the market, someone in this market, how would they be positioned? >> we think again it is quality. we talk about quality a lot but one area that we're looking at which is about capital efficiency. this is really important in this market. mostly if you're investing in cyclical sectors. what i mean by capital efficiency, we don't want to be owning companies that have to spend a lot of money to make money. we want companies that have to do minimal investment in order to drive revenue growth. charles: give me >> yeah, a great example would be a company like eog within the
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energy sector. it's an exploration sector company and they're an oil driller and have a consist ability to be able to increase production would big increases to cap x. they have better technology and better drilling methods and they awe los them to return that capital to you as a shareholder instead of back in the ground and in a volatile environment and uncertain environment, we like that as long-term investors. charles: cameron, great stuff. we learn from you all the time. coming up, folks, i'm going to be sharing some of your tweets from my take away, next. ♪ you really got me. yeah, you really got me now, you got me so i can't see, you really got me., it you really got me. you really got me ♪ charles: i au
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delivered, amx stock 2021 writes truth, the market has no structure and flows as the hedges and goes how it the presidents to go and they're the corner street drug dealers pedaling shares they don't have. nick g writes you know what happens when the investing public becomes more ill literal and goes from conspiracy theorists to the next michael bury to warren buffets and ray rachel says the narratives and
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the stories of bot armies was exposed and will be taken away. dollar cents says it sucks but that's why people need to stop listening to pumpers on the internet and understand they're putting their money into bby, bed bath and beyond was a real bad business. everyone is entitled to sharing their opinions and we love that liz is back. liz: yeah, back from la and this session looks like the traffic likes on ventura boulevard and as soon as you think they're going -- >> charles: i got to mental block. liz: ventura highway. bread, america? america. charles: tom petty. liz: now that we got that out of the way. charles: i'm going to e-mail you the song. liz: i'm sure some of our viewers are going to e-mail me and say, no, liz, it was dot dot dot. this session i


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