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tv   Making Money With Charles Payne  FOX Business  September 1, 2022 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT

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neil: let me go to my buddy charles payne. to see what he can cook up in the next hour. charles? charles: i feel like an alchemist. thanks, neil. i'm charles payne, this is "making money." breaking right now the summer rally is fading fast and the bears are pouncing. i warranted you yesterday to brace for a fall. keep fighting. fortune favors the bold. there is market. you've got to be smart. my market makers will share what portfolio moves you need to make now. companies announce layoffs and initial jobless claims falling
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like a rock. what we might expect from tomorrow's jobs report. plus we'll go back to fundamental school. why lots of cash isn't enough to make a stock great. mitch mitch roschelle will break that down. president biden says he will address the soul of the nation. my take on why this is the could be the final hopes of unifying america. all that and more on "making money." charles: these days the stock market feels like the roman coliseum. you know, no matter how much the fight valiant is at the beginning we know how the fight goes. one of the key features is the last minute swoon coming into the first 167 trading days of the year the is off 15%.
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that is the worst start in history for a new year. going back to full year what really stands out nothing has worked, nothing. everything is absolutely down. in fact you know, in some people think it is going to get worse. we have permabears moving in for the kill including jeremy grantham who says we're entering the super bubble's final act. in part this is what he is looking at. the current super bubble, what he is calling everything, features an unprecedented and dangerous mix of cross of overvaluation, bond, housing, stocks, all critically overpriced now rapidly losing momentum, commodity shock, fed hawkishness. this obviously scaring a lot of people. each cycle is different and unique but every historical parallel suggests that the worst is yet to come. joining me to discuss slatestone wealth chief market strategist kenny polcari and key advisor group eddie ghabour. you've been bearish.
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you have been right. took a little heat on the bounce. you held your ground. one thing that grantham talks as well the bear bounce being his signal, proof that maybe we're ready for the last fall. he talks about the bear bounces in, i'm sorry, 1929, 1973, 2000. saying this one is very similar. you've been worried about this bounce as well, haven't you? >> absolutely, charles. and as i shared with your viewers all year this year reminded us a lot of 2000. we weren't going to get sucked into the bear bounces. i told you made that mistake back then because i think we'll take another leg down. unfortunately, look i call it how i see it. the fundamentals have gotten materially worse, when you look at the dollar, look at what the bond market is doing, the consumer continuing to get hammered. now we have fed that has lost their mind with how reckless they will be with this tightening cycle. investors are going to learn how
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important liquidity is. they are sucking liquidity out of the system at the fastest pace in history. charles: right. >> when we are seeing the fastest slowdown in economic history as well too. i do think we'll have a buying opportunity here in the next couple months but we're continuing to be patient here. charles: no doubt about it, this is uncharted territory with respect to those converging items. you know, kenny, you've been cautious as well although i think you have more money at risk than eddie has, mostly defensive sectors. right now nothing is working, right? if you look over the past year, stocks, bonds, gold, whatever you name it has been down. so what are you doing right now? how long does it stay that way? obviously something is going to break soon? >> well, listen, i think to eddie's point, i think somethins going to break you and i talked about this as well. i got defensive, not panicked everything i owned. megacap names i owned i like but i do think we are going to get an opportunity, i do feel
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starting to feel a little bit more panicking lately than it did to be sure. charles: right. >> and i think you either have, now is the time where new money is just going into cash and waiting right? unless there is a glaring opportunity sticking out at you i'm being much more patient now. i'm not getting rid of my longs, because it's a long-term portfolio. i have a longer view, it is not a two month view, or three month view. it is five and 10-year view. i'm building up a cash position to eddie's point to when we get that break. is it going to 36 hundred, the june lows or beyond that, 3200 which would be 30% retreat off the january high which typically what a full flown bear market gets you. charles: to that point historically bear markets they endured the biggest most painful part of the loss, in the last 1/3. folks you have to understand this. the average bear market, the first third, the second third and the third, that is the
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entire bear market. if you see the initial pullback is usually about 9%. then maybe we get one of those bounces. the second part of the bear market is 11%. i think this is what kenny and eddie both are trying to talk abought. it is tough to jump in front of a potential, big, big, hit down here. is this what you're kind of concerned about, eddie, the final part of this burially, bear market rather, is really the toughest part? >> absolutely, charles. this is why we've really been saying this all year, the fourth quarter is when we'll start nibbling with the cash. we have a very high cash position right now. because you're never going to pick the exact bottom but you need to see the rate of change on the economic activity stop deteriorating so fast. so i think you can find opportunities in the fourth quarter and the first half of next year to dollar-cost-average into this thing. i think we're not going anywhere past the first half of next year in regards to where this bottom is but this month of september, if the fed really does what they
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say they're going to do, we have to see their balance sheet i think they will be forced to pivot next year even though they say they are not going to because they will materially break things in our opinion. so we did buy treasurys today. that is not sexy, when the 10-year ripped we did by treasurys today. charles: guys, i always tell people one of the worst things has happened to investing is financial media, especially financial tv. our conversation is very bearish. someone new to the market may be afraid. kenny, i pulled up a longer chart, right? this goes back to 2000. of course the last big time we had the big global financial crisis and the reason i brought this up over a period of time we're okay. in fact you could even argue that the secular bull market is still intact from the lows of march of 2000, 2009, rather. there is a story to be told there as well, isn't there? >> yes there is and that's why over the long term stocks are the place to be. in times like this it can get
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really uncomfortable. can make you uneasy. make you want to toss it in and forget about it which is exactly the time you shouldn't be doing that, right? that is the most difficult part maintaining focus over long term f you're short-term trader you love chaos, the noise and confusion because you're in and all out all day long. if you're long-term portfolio. you have to start somewhere where who you are in the life cycle will dictate where you start and how to get invested. so you can't let, uneasiness of today cause you to cut and bail. you should absolutely not do that at all. you have to maintain that focus. charles: we always hear, read about the stocks that went up 10,000%, golly, what would that have done for me? well to be in them folks you have to ride these waves. you've got to ride these waves if you truly ever want to be in them. guys, kenny, eddie, thank you very much. appreciate it. obviously the market is struggling again but i tell you one niche i got to tell you
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annihilated. software service sas, getting slammed after key players came up short on earnings and guidance after the close. i want to bring in rbc cap pal markets managing director risha julia. am i close? >> i heard worse. thanks so much for having me. charles: i'm so sorry about that. i'm more sorry about these stocks [laughter]. i went through your 26-page report from august 21st and, i have to believe that maybe you're a little surprised at the carnage you're seeing today, something stood out you actually said these companies, take your lumps now. we'll taking them today. what's going on? >> yeah, look, i'm still very long-term bullish on the sas sector, right? we're still in the very early stages of digital transformation of the economy. so there is a long runaway for a lot of these big platforms to
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keep growing even through macro uncertainty. what is going on is, reality no one is immune from macro pressures we're seeing, sales force, mnogo, longer sales cycles, more scrutiny on deals. it is taking longer for deals to close. ultimately it will be a wash. i'm not worried about this but it creates a lot of short term noise. i'm telling companies to take their lumps, go ahead and reset your guidance, set expectations low and set a low bar to continue to beat them. i think that is exactly what i've seen viva and monggo do last night and they are getting punished unfairly. charles: there is cult classic movie, "blazing saddles," i'm sure you heard of it although you're young. there is a character called mongo, played by football player alex karras.
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everyone that follows the space loves this company. you mentioned the it twice. it had a target of 400. it is now lower in terms of the reaction, that part of these companies are loved so much, the slightest disappointment leads to these kind of reactions. >> thank you for calling me young. i don't think i've been calling young in a long time, i appreciate "blazing saddles" and the reference. mongo, you hit the tail on the head. expectations are high. a lot of us maybe overextrapolated the extensiveness of mongo db, you are building database on among go db. that is a 80 billion-dollar market. they have a huge chance ahead of them. i think one of those any slight weakness people extrapolate from here. that is where i think it does create an overreaction and maybe potential buying opportunity. charles: the granddaddy of them all you mentioned a minute ago,
2:12 pm, crm, customer relationship management. ceo is superstar. loved on the scene. owns "time" magazine. the stock has been a disappointment for a long time. i felt like this sector we should start to see maybe some mergers, maybe some excitement s there any sign we could see some consolidation of the industry? >> absolutely and i think, you know, that's one of the maybe positives for some of these bigger platforms like sales force and microsoft. you have so many individual points out there, lucent, a lot have easy money from venture capital firms. i think the shakeout we're going to see in a recession or a time of macro uncertainty will benefit the larger platforms like sales force and microsoft. that will allow them to make acquisitions in lot more reasonable valuations. if you listen to salesforce
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earnings call, they were maybe softening language around m&a, and maybe they will explore buying other companies and consolidating into another platform which long term could be great for them. charles: i agree. i appreciate your expertise. fantastic report. i didn't finish it. 26 pages, i went through a lot. i'm impressed. >> thank you. >> the market seems to be doing exactly what jerome powell and the fed wants it to do but will powell blink? we have brian wesbury. i don't think powell will be as tough as he says he will be. maybe not as buzz as sum of the tech stuff, semiconductors, transportation that is the key. you need to understand if the transportation index isn't working the stock market isn't working. we'll go to chart school after this. ♪
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♪. charles: all right, folks, the market is going haywire. no better time for chart school than right now.
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we have one of the best, all-star chartist j.c. parets. we'll start with the s&p. we've been talking all week long about the 50-day moving average. first this was the 200. held like a champ. bam, we've gone down. doesn't seem like we've stopped. highlight the big gap down there i believe it could be filled, that is around 3800. how much further down do you think we'll go or can we go from here? >> listen, charles, bottoms are a process, right? you had a absolute ripper off the lows. average stock in the nasdaq was up over 40%. average stock in the new york stock exchange up 30%. those are epic rippers. we've given back about half of that. charles: right. >> so now the market is trying to find its footing. i think it is taking time. as we go into the fall i think it will. do we retest the lows? i think some sectors could, i think some sectors could and already have and the strongest ones won't. charles: s&p overall, it wouldn't be surprising then for it to test the bottom? >> well like i said it may be
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the indexes test, maybe some of the sectors test but the strongest ones won't. those are the ones we want to look for. charles: buying yields obviously seem to be moving this market. bond yields react to what they think the fed will do, market reacting to the bond yields. huge gap up on the treasurys today. it is interesting, when we got down here not too long ago, 2.57 on the 10-year yield. everyone given up idea of 3 1/2, 3.4%. now that talk is coming around. >> sure. charles: what do you make of this? >> remember this is not just a united states thing, it's a global thing. investors with home country bias, especially americans, the whole world revolves what is happening with america but globally look at 10-year yields, look throughout europe, japan, german yields they're above their 2018 highs. the united states is not. so i think if we're going to look at the rest of the world i think the u.s. is probably next. we ultimately break out and start making new highs in yields. i think it will take time but ultimately we do.
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charles: the qs, speaking of volatility, you mentioned the rip already. we're coming down. we've given half of that up. one of these things. this is where people try to make back a lot of money in a short period of time but the flipside is this kind of move we're looking at now. >> monster ripper. average stock in the nasdaq up 40% off the lows, charles, in just about six to eight weeks. we've given back half of it. this goes back to the rates, if rates go up, growth stocks, the nasdaq will underperform. that is perfectly normal. if rates are going higher, look at areas like industrials, materials, energy obviously, some of the more value oriented areas tend to outperform when interest rates are going up. so i think the nasdaq will struggle with bonds under pressure. charles: semis again a very similar chart. you have the semiconductor reacting whatever that is. that didn't really in my mind do anything for the stocks. this big move here exacerbated with news out of nvidia not
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being able to sell certain chips to china but this group, the leaders at least, have shown a lot of resolve. amd, nvidia, some of these names, do you go inside of a group look for winners even though the chart goes down? this is for losers, charles this is underperforming all year. we have want to look for relative strength, this is by definition a relative loser. the losers tend to continue to down that path, right? if we're looking for strength, semiconductors just are not it. charles: transportation, you're a big fan of the dow theory? >> yeah. charles: of course it changed a little bit but not a lot, right? if the, transportation index isn't working that means something is not working in the economy. >> yeah. charles: it is starting to break out here. >> shoutout charlie dow, what did he say? you have the stocks, company that makes the goods, and companies that deliver those goods, right? if one of them is off something's up. if they're both rocking the market is probably doing really well.
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the transports are holding in better than most of the other areas because there is a more value oriented stocks there versus the nasdaq which has a ton of growth. i would look for further outperformance out of transportation names if interest rates continue higher. i think they do. charles: do you watch core gated boxes. >> i do not. charles: that used to be a big deal, more stuff we buy, the more -- >> corrugated boxes? that is too fancy for me. that is cmt level four, charles. charles: see you soon, buddy. president biden gearing up to give a prime-time speech. he says it is about the soul of the nation. my takeaway it will backfire if he is vilifying half the country. jobs report tomorrow. we have adp economist nela richardson. they have a brand new format and we'll talk about what she expects to see. we'll be right back. ♪
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♪. charles: well the adp employment report made its long-awaited return after some retooling and it made a huge statement right out of gate. we have adp chief economist nela richardson with us now. what is different now what is different about the methodology? >> hi, good afternoon, so good to be with you, charles. we realized here at adp we were sitting on a lot of data. what fuels this report is 25 million workers who we pay every single week. so instead of just trying to forecast the friday numbers we realized that we had enough firepower with our own data to create an independent indicator of labor market change, that is based on real experience of adp
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clients which happen to be businesses, charles. so that is exactly what we've done. we're no longer forecasting bls. we have an independent private sector read on the labor market. by the way since we're a payroll company we have some pay in there too. we have for the first time pay indicators that are really important in this high inflation environment. charles: i got to tell you i'm very, very excited that you're using your resources and what's really amazing, your first report, 132,000 jobs in august. the street was looking for a lot more than that obviously this is a lot less than the bls consensus tomorrow. where is the weakness, where is the weakness coming from? >> well some of that is just normalization rather than weakness, right? that all right also stresses, the report we just issued yesterday shows for the first time the employment level has surpassed its 2019 high, excuse me, 2020 prepandemic high of february of 2020. charles: right. >> so as the economy has
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recovered from this tremendous dislocation in the labor market you're going to see smaller changes month to month. remember in the normal days back in the olden times you never see 500 million jobs created in a month. i think what we're heading to, something more normal but the picture is complicated because there is evidence that the economy is also slowing and as it is normalizing. charles: you mentioned the wage data. i love that part of the report. i got to tell you, immediately stood out to me is that small businesses one to 19 employees lost 47,000 workers. large businesses gained 54,000. the bottom line these small businesses simply cannot compete on wages. >> they can't keep up. charles: we talked about this for a long time. i feel like a lot of these small businesses are doomed? >> i don't think they're doomed. small businesses are the engine of growth for the economy. so if the small business sector is doomed the economy will not be that far off but i think they
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have shown a tremendous amount of resilience. that is challenging. they do want to add headcount. that is the key. this is not a decline because there is no demand. it is a decline because it is still competitive to get supply, workers in the door. you have to pay up for it. that is what large firms can do. we see a pay increase of 8.3% over the last 12 months for large firms. just 5.4% for that smaller firm sector. charles: right. of course the jobs stayers versus job switchers, job changers that you call them, golly, 16%? what is amazing about that that the st. louis fed wrote a paper recently that maybe we're counting the job pool all wrong. we take people not in the labor force, how many jobs are open, but feels like they are competing with people who have jobs right now sending out their resume'. the labor force defacto is significantly larger than we think it is probably? >> there is a lot of turnover. people are people, you can count
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the number of jobs but you can't count as well, but we have not as statistical community, got or private sector economists is the churn in the labor market and that is what has been elevated as well. charles: right. >> so you're seeing a lot of people change jobs. the timing is everything in the labor market. you're seeing that play out. so, what we have done in this report, what is unique because we are so big in terms of our data, we can match individuals through time on -- basis. we can see who changed jobs over the course of the year, to see if they got a bump up in pay or not. charles: wow. >> you can see that they did. charles: oh, yeah. it pays to switch jobs these days. nela, thank you very much. congratulations. >> thanks for having me. charles: powell and company, they have been trying to really get this market to do its bidding. so far it worked, right? people certainly sensed that speech last week have really deferred to selling rather than not but you know, over the last
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couple of weeks we talked about arthur burns, who really said, of course he made those infamous stops and starts when he was in charge of the fed in 1970s. keep hearing his name. loretta mester mentioned him yesterday, but he said because of congress back then, 1979, congress anytime he wanted to hike rates he knew he couldn't, they were his boss. how easy for the current day fed to be aggressive once it starts to implied flowed? when the economy falls apart i think the powell blinks. bring in brian wesbury. as much as burns is vilified, kicked around the dustbin of history these days he says he may have wanted to hike rates but congress was like no way? >> charles, i have read the speech that everybody now is quoting from, arthur burns gave it after he was no longer fed chairman and yes, he blamed
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congress but he really blamed people because what they wanted was the federal reserve to monetize the debt and so then, let's transfer that to today. everybody is talking about jerome powell being paul volcker. well i actually think he may try to be paul volcker but he is also part arthur burns because he monetized the debt during the pandemic. the m2 measure of money grew 42% during the pandemic. that's why we have inflation today. and the reason all of this happened is because they accommodated the congress. congress was trying to give people money. some people call it buying votes. then the fed bought the bonds that the congress was forcing the treasury to sell and then what happened is the money supply exploded and inflation went up. paul volcker never monetized the
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debt. he reversed all of that. we'll see if jerome powell has the intestinal fortitude to do this and i think you're right, i think he tightens, unemployment goes up, recession happens, market goes down and then he eases. that is exactly what arthur burns did. charles: what's interesting today, we had a whole bunch of economic data out. >> right. charles: it was good enough for the atlanta gdp number to go higher but one thing interesting to me is prices paid in the i.s.m. report. it is down a ton. >> yeah. charles: to me yields are rocketing higher but to me if we're looking for the fed to react to any sort of inflation read wouldn't the fed look at that and say wow, that is a pretty big move? >> yeah, definitely, charles, but to analyze it appropriately you have to realize what we do we ask purchasing managers, that is what the institute for supply management is, are you paying higher prices or lower prices? so clearly oil, gasoline peaked,
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commodity prices have peaked. charles: i gotcha. >> they're not going up anymore but they are falling a little bit. charles: i gotcha. >> but the point is, it's probably mostly oil that's driving that. charles: hey you know what? i was just talking to nela about this current market. if you're a job lever you are making a mint. it wasn't as you that way. back in the day workers actually had to work really hard to get a raise. i want you to check out this letter. it is from a young man to his grandparents about how he had to work hard or how he did work hard, working hard at his job hoping for a raise. tell me if you recognize this letter? beautiful, my man that is you. how old were you when you wrote the letter to mama and papa? >> i think i was 15 years old and i just recently moved from illinois to colorado. thank goodness i'm out of illinois and i'm looking through all of my boxes, organizing
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things, i find this letter and what blew me away about it, how excited i was. you know, i've always liked to work. charles: yeah. >> but how excited i was to make $2.20 an hour and have the boss tell me you can get a raise if you work hard. you know what i learned at that, charles? is to show up on time, to work hard, i may have only made two bucks an hour, minimum wage back then in 1974 or something like that, but i learned how to do those things and i just look at my own career and that, those lessons were worth hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of thousands of dollars of income over my life. and that's what i wish, i wish we were teaching kids to do that these days. neil: instead of paying off the college loans and having the government tell their bosses how much they have to earn. there is so much wisdom to learn by working and and now we look
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at employers as evil and, it's the wrong direction for this country. charles: i agree. all my jobs as a kid in the '70s were minimum wage. i was thrilled every single time i got one. my first job on wall street was 13,000 a year. when i got the phone call i ran to my wife, my daughter was one years old, one of the happiest moments of my life to have the opportunity. >> right. charles: brian, you are the american dream. i appreciate you. >> thank you, charles, good to be with you. charles: coming up we'll take a deep dive into the markets which are turning around. is a buying opportunity amiss? is this simply the bear market happening within a larger market, right? what about if you want safety, right? everyone is saying you got to buy stocks and companies with a lot of cash. it is not that simple. mitch roschelle is with us for fundamental school next. ♪.
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♪. charles: joining me now macro trends advisors founding partner mitch roschelle. and this is fundamental school, folks and we'll talk to mitch about one of his favorites stocks, certainly one ever yours. a company you're familiar with. it is called microsoft. i pulled up the most recent quarter and we'll go through to look why it is appealing although maybe some red flags and yellow flags. mitch, obviously a lot of money, almost $52 billion. what stood out to me as yellow flag, gross margin down there down 1%age point, operating margin down two. what do you make of it? >> the start with the basics, difference between the gross margin which is the direct profit of their operating business. operating margin takes into account overhead. what it tells me cost of running the business is creeping up
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faster than the revenue is. charles: right. >> that is problematic. that is all the excess office space they're trying to figure out how to unload, salaries of senior folks that may be too high. there is a warning sign if they don't ramp up margins -- charles: companies with big r&d may cut back on that so this number doesn't go down. would you rather, i don't know if that is the case here, you watch these companies, hold them in your portfolio long term, struggling a little bit with the top line, compensates are high, do you want them to cutbacks things like r&d? >> i don't think companies should ever cut back investing in their future especially a technology company which innovation moves quickly but i would like to cut them back on non-core costs, if people are not working in the office i have real estate background why have real estate? charles: i like to go four quarters back. jumps out at me right away. year ago beat by 10%, beat by
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7%, beat by 2%. last quarter they missed. sequentially having a tough time meeting wall street expectation. >> i think we've entered a new era of transparency with analysts and i think the two years of covid, first it was like we can't give you any guidance because we don't know what the future looks like. they couldn't get' way with that without the stock price suffering. i think it is harder and harder to be transparent. they were managing down expectations for a while, that is why they had big beats. i have to applaud them for missing i think a new level of transparency. they're letting analysts in to see what is going on. charles: they have a superstar ceo. someone like that can be transparent, can be honest, occasionally can miss but at least we know he sincere and has a track record. i think he is the best ceo in the country. >> i don't disagree. he took the company in the cloud. they were the desktop company everybody had one on the desk.
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apple started to take market share but they brought it into enterprise cloud which is the future. charles: i brought this chart, it is a gangbuster move it. was down a lot, 360, 356. when you're looking at this, does this long-term chart get you to hang in there if you're a buy and hold investor? >> i know we'll talk about cash and i am a buy and hold investor especially with a name like this. i don't worry they're not going to keep up with the innovation patterns because they have a rock star ceo. if it was a company i thought was resting on their laurels like big blue i would worry a little bit more. charles: i have 30 seconds. i have to squeeze this in. i pulled up a list of companies with a lot of cash. a lot of cash alone is not a reason to be in a stock. ge hasn't done a lot talking the last few years. general motors hasn't done a lot. ford hasn't done a lot. what distinguishes companies on this list with a lot of cash that have done extraordinarily well the last four or five years and the ones that haven't? >> ones with a lot of cash, know
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what to do with it invest in the future have done well. apples, amazons, microsoft. even coca-cola to some degree. the automobile companies, i worry about because i don't think they're keeping up. their cost of labor is exceptionally high. charles: mitch, thank you very much. love it. great stuff. coming up, folks. panel of experts to help us into the last hour of trading. remember it has been vicious. by the same token maybe, just maybe this is the time to be buying. also my takeaway on why president biden's prime time address tonight could be a fatal blow to any hopes of unifying this country. ♪. another busy day? of course - you're a cio in 2022. but you're ready. because you've got the next generation in global secure networking
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♪. charles: so a little bit more than an hour to go, you can see the there has been some nibbling here in the market. the big quote though, should you be doing it? should you buy the dip or maybe wait a little longer? main street management ceo, erin gibbs, wells fargo senior advisor mark smith. mark, are you doing anything in this environment right now other than sitting on your hands? [laughter]. they should be warm by now. you've been sitting on them a long time. >> a lot of placeses have value right now. one we're finding in the
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financials. you have never seen the banks in a better position i think. when you have rates going this high, they will go higher -- charles: you think rates, how much higher? >> i think they will go a lot higher, charles. i just talked to a client who sold their place. got seven offers. everyone went higher than other. going best and final. real estate is an incation inflation is here to stay. nothing going down in grocery stores. gas prices are down, from where it was two years ago, super high. i think that inflation will continue. a lot of money this peoples pockets. financials is a sector i think will do the best in a rising interest rate environment. then look at all the electric cars. i like this new etf, lit, it takes advantage of all the different companies fuels batteries. >> lit is lit. what is really good too, at some point they will let you drive them in california. first they make you buy them. then they say don't charge them up. i'm ready to buy some sneaker stocks myself. what do you like here?
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>> i'm looking at health care. there are a couple companies centene, united healthcare. not exciting managed health care. >> mentioned centene before though and it has been doing really well. >> sort of like one of those under the radar stocks every time the market gets wobbly, shaky these stocks hold up. they still do well, outperform the market. those are a safe plastic larly until more cpi numbers, fed meets in september. those are safe places to go for the next month. charles: speaking of the fed, all eyes on the jobs report tomorrow. golly, it could be anything, really could be at this point you know. i saw a headline somewhere one of reasons president biden is giving speech tonight is getting ahead of the jobs report. if it is bad news then, mark, the market could get a pretty good bounce but would you consider that a trading bounce? to erin's point, don't we need a lot of information before we say the fed's done?
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>> you need quarters and quarters of info. as the fed chairman said this will be a long-term issue, this inflation. they're dedicated to combating it. so it could be good, right. it is an election year. if they're great numbers i would want to have a speech too. see what happens tomorrow. in either case the fed what you got to look at. as long as they have the tightening policy, watch out, volatility is going to persist. charles: i know the atlanta fed gdp quarter, this one the biggest moves i've seen, day-to-day moves, at 2.6% i think now, yeah, 2.6, highest it has been because some data coming in better than expected. what i'm getting at here, erin, there was a time when you wanted a strong economy. >> right. charles: to the backdrop for a strong stock market. so weird to have to root for recession because essentially that is where investors are but isn't there something weird about that? >> it is always difficult as a money manager to be in this bad
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news is good news and good news is bad news environment because fundamentally it doesn't make sense because i want companies to make more money. as long as the fed raising rates, it won't last forever, as long as we're in the inverse world, we're worried about rates, you have to look at things the opposite which i know is a little mind-boggling. it is all about the 10-year. it is all about the fed rates. right now the stock market tracking the 10-year yield so closely. you have to watch that. charles: do we test the bottom, test the june low? >> i don't think we'll go that low. i think, because we've already started to see inflation come down. of course that depends what we're going to see with the cpi in two weeks. charles: sure. mark you think we might have hit the low? >> i don't think so. i think there is more to go because as long as these rates continue to rise, you're going to have volatility. i think to the downsize. remember the fed is doing this one reason, one reason only. to make sure that there is less liquidity in the market. people have less money in their pockets, employers feel less
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comfortable hiring. that will hopefully fix all the problems we've been talking about for the last few months. as long as that is the case buckle up. charles: we've been buckled for a while. someone has been sitting on their hands for a while. mark, erin, thank you very much. coming up i will give you a preview ahead of the president's prime-time speech, a few thoughts of my own. we'll be right back. not a probl. you guys aren't gonna give me the fake bill fight? c'mon, kev. you're earning 3% cash back. humor me. where is my wallet? i am paying. where is my wallet? i thought i gave it to you. oooohhh? oh, that's not it either. no. no. stop, i insist. that was good though. earn big time with chase freedom unlimited with no annual fee. how do you cashback? chase. make more of what's yours.
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they weren't called farc its on the contrary. lauded for spirited display of defiance. those protests gave rise to the resistance movement. listen i wish president biden was giving a speech about unity tonight. could use the firestorm over actress sidney sweeney having relatives that backed police, voted for trump. this young accomplished woman is the american dream. it is clear she comes from a close-knit family. that to me indicates she has
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good parents, period. i wish america was more of a close-knit family. obviously we're not. looks like tonight president biden may rip the fabric abouts of unity even more, demonizing people who don't think like him, didn't vote for him. i hope that is not the case. cheryl casone in for liz claman. cheryl, the last hour of trading is nuts. we're buckled up. cheryl: first of september is rough month historically. maybe it changes today. i will give it my best shot. that is the market alert we begin with right now. not such a bad start to september, after beginning the day looking like we would end all three indexes lower. the dow is holding on to gains right now. s&p, had flatten ad few moments ago. now we're down by 11 points. dow higher by 17. nasdaq still down by 123. as for the nasdaq, this is the longest losing streak we've seen for the nasdaq since february of this year. so


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