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again. two of wall street's big mistakes, i think that really don't have a lot of evidence on, one everyone is too bullish, right? every time the market goes higher all the wall street folks start saying hey, this is irrational exuberance. look where we are right now. this is survey just recently done. only 9% of people out there in professionals think that we've actually hit the bottom. 58% don't see it coming until 2023 or beyond that. and in addition to this, individual investors, you know, the dumb, money, look at this, there is bullishness, folks. we're talking about the most bearish year on record. only 18% of individual investors are bullish at this particular time. then there is money.

money talks before anything else. this is the weekly flows. weekly flows in cash out of stocks has been mind-boggling. it is mind boggling how much money has come out of equities that is not a sign of confidence. joining to us discuss, kaltbaum capital president gary kaltbaum, money map, shah gilani. jim iurio. c. i report worked. a lot of anecdotal that it could come in below 8.1% consensus. have you made decisions on that based on your portfolio? >> i did, like more than a month ago. i thought inflation was peaking. rates were high. provided the government doesn't do anything stupid, higher prices can be a cure for higher prices. government city stupid things, propped up input costs with energy. they tried to improve wages. they decided to give people money. despite all the moronic things they were doing like you said,

rate down 80% down below the 10-year average. one year breakevens. a lot of people think the breakevens could be manipulated, central banks are involved in treasury markets. that is 6.2, 1.9 in matter of months. i think inflation comes off. i thought the 3900 level held in the s&ps. i like it. i bought off that, i'm long, i'm bullish to the end of the year. i'm a little worried about the nasdaq two year yields have spiked a little bit higher. charles: right. >> if the rhetoric from the fed doesn't come in a little softer in the short term the nasdaq shouldn't perform as well. i like the overall market. gold bounced off a 1700 level looks good. copper looks good to me, things like that pause i think the fed will pivot next couple weeks to neutral. not -- charles: of course. that is all the street looking for right now a neutral fed. >> amen. charles: shah what are you looking for? >> i'm looking for a 75 basis-point hike for the fed. that is academic.

charles: beyond that, everyone is saying you have got two camps. all the experts keep saying that the fed will be strong this time. they keep reminding us of that. you look like the cme fed watch suggests no rate hikes next year. one can't be right. they both can't be right? >> i'm in the camp that we're going to see i here inflation, not necessarily higher than the 8.5 cpi print we saw last month. i think we'll see consistent inflation, headline numbers north of 5% and i think the fed's going to be forced to continue to raise rates. i don't think the market realizes that's the course they have said they're going to stay on and i don't think that, that has been priced in yet. charles: you know, gary i want to go to you, every time the market is higher wall street says there is too much optimism. couldn't it be a case of more buyers than sell es? again only 9% of people polled think we already hit the bottom. it is not the same thing, right? more buyers and sellers and their irrational exuberance?

>> look, i just follow price and patterns and look for the big picture and main trends. you know, there is so much chatter on a daily basis from different avenues that will drive you up a wall and to drink a lot of tequila. i, again i just keep a good focus. last week i thought we were putting in a little low because we dropped 10 to 12% in 14 days. now we're better. i like the fact that all the major indices are back above the vital 50-day moving average. apple is doing it today. on some positive comments and if these price areas can stick, there's opportunity going forward. what is missing is a lot of leadership in the markets but we have some in waste management, managed care, zollars and a couple of other things -- solars, it may take some more time. i'm not so worried about quote-unquote what wall street

is saying. i'm more worried about what price is saying that is what counts the most. charles: shah, another complaint earnings have not come down enough. maybe that is true, maybe it is not, i want to point out third quarter earnings estimates right now are 3.9% growth. coming into the quarter it was 9.8%. so even though it doesn't look big there, that is a huge, huge change. how much more adjustments you think we need to see for something like before there is greater belief on the street there could be a rally with the markets oversold? >> i think part of the rally we're seeing here speeds short-covering, besides dealers being short and lifting the market going into options expiration this week is a function of investors believing indeed earnings are coming down. estimates are coming down but they are still positive. growth is still positive. still evident we'll see growth in earnings. investors are hanging their hats on that. if they do see the fed maybe

hesitate, maybe balk, then maybe with higher earnings growth probably to come in 2023 they're front running that. whether or not the estimates will continue to come down for the rest of the third quarter, and through the fourth quarter, remains to be seen. i think they will come down. charles: right. >> that is another shock that investors may face if they're knocked down a lot harder. charles: jim to the point, i want you to listen to the statement from last week. quote, by our count there were around 25 street sponsored industry cover friendses in the u.s. alone. several more overseas during this holiday shortened week. we did not note any major earnings warnings emerging from these meetings, a positive sign. that was from wells fargo. you know, jim, maybe, maybe earnings estimates don't have to come down as much as we keep hearing on wall street. what do you think? >> well you never you know estimate the ability of different companies to handle adverse effects and still come out okay from it. so i'm okay with it, but there

is the lag effect on rates going higher. lag effect on inflation being higher. i'm definitely worried about it. if earnings come down precipitously that could be another element of the fed and my thesis they are going to move to neutral in the next three weeks or so. i'm concerned about it, not overly with particularly the statistic you gave how they have been lowered substantially. charles: gary, what are you doing here? you mentioned a few sectors, a few things obviously standing out like crazy. i don't know that they have the coattails to carry this market higher but you're participating aren't you? >> a little bit. first off i'm celebrating the new york giants win. charles: that was a hell of a win, that was a hell of a win. i tip my hat to this coach. i love this guy. >> first time since i think 2016 they're actually above the win percentage. so good news. look, right now, what i'm simply doing is looking for some opportunities in here.

it has been a very tough road bear, a big bear market. we've been out of the way pretty much most of the time. charles: yeah. >> i'm hoping for a major turn. the one thing i do like is that we may have put in what is known as a higher low which means a process of bottoming is in but i'm still unsure and why? i've said it to you a thousand times there is too much of this fed. who knows what they're going to side to do next. they went to far on money printing. will they go too far on raising rates? if they go 5% fed funds look out below! hope they get smart. i will note to jay powell. he wouldn't listen. hopefully they will do the right thing. charles: ironically that is my major complaint as well. my biggest worry. >> too much. charles: couldn't start the week off with a better group of guys. coming up the economy and the stock market impact from global

cooling, folks. that's right, stocks you may want to own. tom mc:done is here at 2.25. the dollar and what could be major turning points in chart school right after this. ♪ with my hectic life you'd think retirement would be the last thing on my mind. hey mom, can i go play video games? sure, after homework. thankfully, voya provides comprehensive solutions and shows me how to get the most out of my workplace benefits. what's the wifi password again? here you go. cool. thanks. no problem. voya helps me feel like i've got it all under control. because i do. oh she is good. voya. well planned.

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and a lowered ability to fight them may occur. tell your doctor about an infection or symptoms or if you had a vaccine or plan to. tell your doctor if your crohn's disease symptoms develop or worsen. serious allergic reaction may occur. best move i've ever made. ask your dermatologist ♪. charles: well, it's the most popular game on wall street these days, where is inflation going in joining me 314 research founder warren pies. you issued a report to your clients, one year inflation with cpi swap rates. you're saying they're pointing to a return to 2% inflation. i think what caught my eye, was next year. even without a recession path to cpi is more probable than consensus expects. i think it's a pretty gutsy call. we had jim iurio talking about the same thing. i think it is the time horizon. let me show the audience your chart and what exactly are you talking about here. how confident are you and walk us through the process here.

>> appreciate you having me on. anytime you're talking about markets you're working in probabilities, so there are no absolutes. you have to kind of find where the consensus might be underestimating the probabilities of given outcome. i think that is what we have here. anytime you have two deep markets, cpi swap rates, inflation breakevens, sending a certain signal. it is that we'll get 2 1/2 and one and 3/4% on the cpi next year i think you need to pay attention. so what we did we ran the numbers, basically looking if there is any way for us to get to a two handle on cbi next year without a recession? we focused on supply side factors. the answer is yes, oil stay low and car prices give 50% of the gains post-pandemic that gets you back to 2% cpi really. charles: what does that translate to the stock market and particularly the s&p? >> if that would happen that would be very bullish for the

markets. any long duration assets beaten up, big tech, tech in general, nasdaq type of stocks, they would fly if we were to get there. i said to clients, if you were to tell me for sure that cpi would be at 2 1/2% this time next year, you know, i would be a "raging bull" on the stock market. so you need to, i think the evidence here is incrementally more bullish, outsized probability. charles: warren, one other factor you talked about is crude oil. i have a west texas intermediate chart. it is obviously in a down channel, no doubt about that. right in the channel to move higher. looks to me 95 would be a breakout point. is there somewhere on here where you have to go back to the drawing board on everything? >> i think when you're looking at wti, i really do prefer brent, it's a better benchmark. wti we were 90, 91 pre-invasion. last time i spoke out that was the big sea change in the markets was invasion of ukraine.

the fact we're below there is pretty striking. i put that back on china, we've seen continuous stopping restarting of that economy. it is sapping demand from the market. you have spr barrels going on the market all through october as well. those two factors kept a lid on oil and this is why i think that oil is going to be the thing that ultimately dictates where we go with cpi next year. it is the swing factor. charles: right. >> if you get bullish on the market you need to stay overweight energy equities because i think energy he equits act as great hedge in this market. charles: i agree 1000% you have to have that in your portfolio. i have 30 seconds. i want to ask you about bitcoin for a moment. it held down here 18,800 level. each time it made a little bit of a bounce. this had a little oomph to it. could we see bitcoin breaking out to the upside? >> given what we said about the

cpi, bitcoin is quintessential long-term duration trading with tech in general. if the market is sniffing out, probabilities inflation will be much lower in a year than it is right now bitcoin would rally. the chart looks pretty good. charles: certainly does. great stuff, warren. glad you explained that. we learned a lot from you. thank you very much. >> thanks for having me on. charles: coming up should the fed base monthly policy on a survey of 5000 people? a record spike of recession cited in conference calls, is that the next big risk? we have top economist chris lowe, what that would mean for everyone. he is next. ♪. dad, we got this. we got this. we got this.

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♪. charles: all right, all eyes on the cpi report. of course there is additional economic data this week including university of michigan sentiment read on friday and it

will have some influence on the fed decision making. joining me fhn chief financial economist chris lowe. chris, i want to begin with the cpi report. big swoons and prices paid component on ism manufacturing and services reports this number should be coming down and may be coming down quickly. what do you think? >> i actually have down .2 for august. so it would be the second successive decline. it's predominantly gasoline. gasoline prices probably down about 14% based on aaa daily price reads. we actually haven't seen gas price increase in month 1/2. charles: i think it is 99 days, something like that. what about though, core? stripping out food and energy, that economists normally do, people on main street get upset when you do that, hey, those are the two things i used most but the core is what is giving people fits though? >> certainly what is giving the fed fits and that was the message we had all last week. we heard from a ton of them

because we're in the blackout period now. so- charles: thank goodness, [laughter]. >> federal open mouth committee strikes again, yes. so the message is we have to focus on things like rent and medical costs and other services because once food and energy settle down, it is those core services that are going to drive the thing. the cleveland fed does a median cpi that was running at 6.2% last month. that's much too hot. and that's why everyone of them said we're in this for the long haul. don't an fooled by good for a month or two. charles: that is the cleveland fed now cast, everyone check that out. a great source of information. 75 basis points built in and everyone is doing it. i looked at a map of all the central banks around the world, this jumbo hike does it still

have the great oomph it once had? will it have the same bang for the buck? >> i think it will. charles: okay. >> they have to get fed funds high enough, if you have look at where treasuries are trading, the bill curve, front end of the curve is really steep that is the market anticipating they still have couple hundred basis points to go. that is why they're moving in 3/4 increments. they are trying to get it done quickly, but when they keep saying it is preemptive. baloney. you're miles behind the market. charles: transitory kerfuffle underscores that. >> yes. charles: in your piece in the economic weekly you said the fed gets it. you're saying maybe their messaging is wrong but at that crate toe gathering that you think powell and company kind of get it but i thought was intriguing you wrote people at that cato gathering were trying to steer the fed. you pointed out bank of england governor king stole the show taking a shot at the fed for thinking that inflation is

controlled by expectations that michigan sentiment number which is coming out on friday actually had a major impact on powell's thinking this year. >> it did. to powell's credit he worried about it when it shot higher. it is lower now and it's lower because gas prices have been falling and they're not putting -- charles: is it folly to hang your hat on that particular report? i know they look at everything but -- >> here is what mervyn king said, it makes perfect sense. he said at each of these meetings our economists would give us three scenarios, you raise rates a little, raise rates moderately, you raise rates a lot. in two years mo no matter what we do inflation is the same. it is expectations. that is baloney, if you raise inflation a lot it will be lower. you have to recognize there other things that affect inflation. charles: almost sounds like it was a roast. >> right. charles: i'm expecting to see clips of don rickles. thank you very much.

>> thank you, my friend. charles: national gas drivers have been driving inflation on both sides of the atlantic where more governments are making things worse with more poor choices. edward lawrence is live from the white house with more. edward. reporter: gas prices have been falling but experts say it is not falling for a good reason for the economy. they're saying that we're seeing gas prices fall because global demand is slowing because of fears of a global recession as well as china not completely finished with their lockdowns because of covid, so they haven't come out of that. that equals that a global demand for oil is decreasing. now in mid-october, the strategic petroleum reserve releases that the president has been doing of one million barrels a day, that ends. europe fully bans the russian oil in december. treasury secretary janet yellen admitting this could spike gas prices. now the head of the american petroleum institute tells me that they would like to see the u.s. follow europe's lead on this and pivot with energy

prices but that is not what is happening here. listen. >> we don't want to be in the position that europe finds itself in or for that matter we don't want to follow the path of california either where they're talking about rolling blackouts because of heat waves. this country has the resources right under our feet to support the american people and provide for energy security and divorce us from these regimes that are hostile to world interests. reporter: sew adds now is the time to make that policy shift for the investments needed to increase the supply of oil and natural gas in the u.s. as our population increases. now specifically the api wants to see a reconsideration of the proposal to additional clime mattis closures which would be a requirement to get access to capital. now instead the administration continues to add regulations. president joe biden saying that his moves have brought down gas prices. you see though what his administration does right here, all of those though temporary measures. some democrats like senator jon

tester are questioning now this only electricity push that this administration has and sort of getting rid of fossil fuels before the u.s. economy might be ready to get rid of all of those fossil fuels. senator jon tester making a point you can do both and the u.s. should do both going forward. back to you. charles: hey, edward, thank you so much, my friend. i want to bring in now the mcclellan market report editor, tom mcclellan. so much policy on both sides of the planet on the planet warming. you have some evidence that maybe we're in a cooling period, right? >> we've been due to start a cooling period as part of the natural 60 year cycle in temperatures that was due to start about 2005. took longer than expected because the earth stayed warmer because of succession of el mean yos. because of 2015. that phase is due to last until about 20 a 35. charles: i have a chart here you

used for that. essentially what does that mean? we're in a cooling period. i know you specifically point out agriculture that has an impact on inflation, the economy, even markets? >> well the fascinating thing is the same 60-year cycle in global temperatures shows up even better in interest rates because we've been able to measure interest rates longer than we've been able to measure temperatures. a thermometer got invented a couple hundred years ago. charles: right. >> it goes on and there is about a five-year lag between temperatures and interest rates. interest rates are due to continue rising until about 2040 and that is, effect is agricultural. when we're in a cooling phase globally agriculture production is not as good. that tends to flow through to other types of prices. that eventually flows through into interest rates. charles: wow. another bad owe men i think particularly for the stock market that you point out is the weakness in high yield. >> it's a sign of liquidity. high-yield bonds trade much more like stocks than treasury bonds. they are the real canaries in

the coal mine. when liquidity starts drying up and catches all the big cap stocks in the s&p 500 it usually shows up first in the high yield bonds. they were doing well in july and august. they were rallying in the market, liquidity is not healthy. charles: when you hear all of these policy, you know, this urgency factor to fight climate, i mean they're fighting a climate warming scenario, you just laid out a climate cooling scenario. sounds to me we're on a dissass truss path? >> i would not say disasterous, i would say natural. the media likes to hype disasters. charles: not the climate itself, economic consequences of urgency of policy? >> that is much more important. what we do in response and reaction to things is far more damaging and far more potentially hazardous than the outcome. charles: what the actual medicine is more damaging?

>> well-said. charles: how do you invest in environment? >> not today. not right now. i'm looking the bear market continuing toward the end of this year. better time to be a buyer at an initial bottom in november and at an retest bottom in december. then we have much better outlook for 2023. if you want to play a pop as a trader, as a swinging riverboat gambler there should be a pop the first week of october that will get everybody suckered in, oh, a new uptrend. we'll go up into the election. that will be a pop. then the market will continue down. charles: any particular area will pop more than others since i'm rolling the dice anyway? >> hot money in big cap has deck stocks, that is where you see the biggest reaction. charles: for the most part cool your heels, cash is not trash considering the risk? >> that is tough for us humans. we want to kill something and trade right now and wait. better off waiting november to december. charles: great. tom your work is amazing. thank you very much, i appreciate it. coming up, folks i will give my

takeaway on the queen elizabeth and the market during her reign. she had a richly rewarding life but so do a lot of others. i will break down what the rest of the year might look like with victoria fernandez. she is next. ♪ when a normal day is anything but normal, we fit your schedule, with our unique tub over tub process installed in as little as a day. bath fitter. it just fits. visit bathfitter.com to book your free consultation. finding my way forward with node-positive breast cancer felt overwhelming at times. but i never just found my way, i made it. so when i finished active therapy,

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♪. charles: well my next guest said at the start of the year 2022 would be a tug-of-war and certainly has been the case after that horrific start for the market. joining me crossmark global investment chief global strategist, victoria fernandez. victoria, one of the reasons for this tug-of-war i still think the market thinks that powell and company are bluffing. listen we know they will do 75 basis points, an i don't think they believe, it is not about cutting but i think the pivot them winding it down a lot of people believe what happens this year, what are your thoughts? >> charles, you're right. i think the fed lost a lot of

credibility during the whole transitory debacle they had earlier this year. people will not sure they will stick to the word what they're doing. i don't think the fed will pivot this year. we need to take them at their word. how many times powell has come out, he talked about volcker what volcker has done, and they do not want to do a start and stop process with rates. i think we have to believe they're going to continue to hike rates, keep them at a higher level until they see inflation come down to a level that is acceptable for them. i'm not sure what that level is going to be. it is definitely not going to be 2% that they say is their target. charles: right. >> that i would look at next year, maybe around middle of the year, third, fourth quarter to start lowering rates. charles: still within that you see the possibility of a soft landing. that is the case by the way, what would that look for with the market if the fed pulled this off? >> i think it would be great for the market. i think the market would be really pleased with a soft landing. i think the fear of recession has come back a little bit from

where we were earlier this year. it is obviously still a concern. my opinion it is going to be in europe. that is where we're going to see it first, depending what happens with the ukraine and russia depending if putin tries to freeze europe out this winter, that obviously will have an effect on us. but otherwise i think with the disinflationary pressures we see a little brit right now, from energy with consume being strong i think we have a chance for soft landing. >> say it is peak inflation. we're past that. high, elevated but we peaked. the bottom, the june bottom, does it get retested? >> you know it is hard. i feel like for that we have to shake our eight ball here, charles, to see what it is going to tell us because there are still so many uncertainties going on. i am no so sure we've seen peak inflation make headline number. remember december, new sanctions go into place on russia.

we could see russia climbing that could be concerning. the terminal rate will be, consumer, earnings expectations coming down i think we'll still see a lot of tug-of-war you mentioned. i think we won't hit the bottom again, i think in pretty tight range maybe 3900, 4200 on s&p for quite a while. charles: by the way the strategic petroleum reserve is at the lowest level since 1984. they can't keep tapping that, that is for sure. i know you liked defensive names, right, the defensive sector. here's the thing, because of all the uncertainty out there i know why they have done extraordinarily well but i look at a lot of these, sectors in some of these names feel expensive on a relative basis. do we still take that risk? >> i think you have to look that relative component is so important to tell you if something is cheap or not at this point in time. financials have been relatively cheap, to the s&p. that is an area we have focused on a little bit more as of late. you know we like the credit cards, so we continue to add to

names like visa, to american express. we like health care. you mentioned health care little earlier in the show. we like names there you have to look at some staple names. a name like a coca-cola, that fits into that theme we're talking about. charles: have a coke and a smile and sleep at night, i like that. victoria, thank you so much. it is great seeing you. >> thankss charles. charles: folks, enphase, if you haven't heard of it, you have been missing out. it is the second best performer this year. matt caruso totaled everyone on the show that he bought it. he told to you buy it. the question, does he still like it? he has more picks. we have danielle shay on last trades. don't go away. we'll be right back. ♪.

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psoriasis really messes with you. try. hope. fail. no one should suffer like that. i started cosentyx®. five years clear. real people with psoriasis look and feel better with cosentyx. don't use if you're allergic to cosentyx. before starting get checked for tuberculosis. an increased risk of infection, some serious and a lowered ability to fight them may occur. tell your doctor about an infection or symptoms or if you had a vaccine or plan to. tell your doctor if your crohn's disease symptoms develop or worsen. serious allergic reaction may occur. best move i've ever made. ask your dermatologist ♪. charles: so last week the dutch city of harlem, the original harlem, announced prohibition is going to be begin in 2024 against meat advertising of public station like bus stops after meat was added to the list of products that contribute to

climate crisis. considering all the government cash, the efforts to push renewables while curbing our behavior it is going to create a whole lot of market winners. joining me caruso insights, matt caruso. matt, you have been pounding the table on the solar plays, enphase. number two gainer on year only trailing oxy petroleum, congratulations. do you still like it here? >> i still like it, charles. these stories take time to play out. you see in the weak market environment for the stocks to make new all-time highs. that is incredible. that is speaking to demand for this stock for all the reasons you mentioned with the whole push to solar and various incentives going to the industry. charles: we mentioned solaredge last time. a couple days later, earnings or something came out, it took a huge hit. it has come roaring back. that is what i love about these names. they're volatile but the power behind them, feels like these will be some long-term winners and they will become household

names? >> i think some of that volatility is that it is just an industry in flux. so whenever that happens each earnings report for this company it is important to get a better idea what is coming in the future in terms of valuations for the company. it is normal for these earnings reports to see the volatility. enface is a clear winner in the face. that is where i've been focusing. there are ancillary plays wolf speed, ticker wolf. they have a new product that they have been developing called silicon carbide, doing wonderful things for the solar industry to increase the amount of power they get out of panels, reduce energy loss. there are many ways to focus on this trait. charles: i think that is a real big hurdle for this space. again, the efficiency factor is going to be critical. i know you like celsius. that is a beverage company. so you folks know it's a hot company. they beat the street by 275%. 200% and 50% in the last three earnings recesses but also feels like a fickle space.

why do you like it? >> well i think that they have a unique product and you know the energy drink market has been one of the best growing in the beverage category. celsius is doing fantastic. they're the number two energy drink on amazon that says a lot about their brand as a small company. what i really like about this stock i was bullish about the company, when pepsi made a strategic investment several weeks ago that really opened up their distribution network and the ability to get out to many more people. they're definitely on trend in terms of the energy drink. they have natural ingredients that differents differ eneights them with earnings. all-time highs, charles. charles: you like elastic. that is space where there is serious hit or miss. that means the real players are elevating themselves. i guess this is one of them? >> absolutely and that is one of the beautiful things about this market the real standout leaders start to show. software although it has been a hard year for software and

elastic is no different, it has had a drop but i think they're starting to really differentiate themselves in the space. you see price action and it is healthier than many companies in the space. they are when many are missing. if rates come down, they will get the tailwind as a negative earnings type company that they will get the push higher by interest rates dropping. >> matt, i have 30 seconds, your overall feelings on this market? >> i think, segments of this market have already bottomed. i said that last time as well, charles. i think the overall waterfall decline we saw ended in june. it will be about a stock-pickers market. you want to see who is already delivering results in this environment because if you can win in this environment imagine if this recession can end and investors start looking past the recession these will be leaders that can deliver monster returns this is really when the opportunity is there. you have to focus on who is winning and who is delivering. charles: right. matt, congratulations, my man,

you have the hot hand. glad you shared new considered with us. >> thanks for having me, charles. charles: we have simpler trading director of options danielle shay. stock-picker extraordinaire. i was reading last week you wrote the fed has no plans backing off raising rates anytime soon. what happens if the cpi number tomorrow comes in say well below consensus? would that change things? >> charles, not much. i mean i think if anything the market would probably rally and it would give us a better place to short into. the reason why i don't think it would make a huge impact if the number is significantly lower because powell has already stated he is going to go ahead and continue forward. maybe this number is a little bit lower but that doesn't mean next month will be or he will change his plans. charles: you don't think it will be that much lower, right? you're thinking it might be a little higher? >> you know, that's because everyone is so focused on gas, yes, that's true. gasoline prices have come down but what i'm seeing inflation is

embedded in the economy. i'm seeing people raising prices all over the place. once businesses raise prices they're not just going to suddenly lower them because the price of gas has gone down over the course of three months. i don't think we should be as hopeful as a lot of people are being right now. charles: you're a teacher, danielle, you teach things how for people to invest in the market. i saw your three key oversold factors for oversold bounces. can you share that with us? >> of course. last week we experienced a oversold bounce. put/call ratio was incredibly high. everybody was way too bearish. we were also falling into support and we got to a point where just sentiment needed to shift. whenever you have a news related factor that causes the market to shift, that's typically what we see and we see that happen on a key support zone. charles we were talking about the key support zones. we hit that 3900 number in the

s&p almost to the tick. that was exactly where the market shifted. i think that the bounce we saw was absolutely normal. it was textbook and at this point we're going into a news-related event that is most likely going to see a sell the news type situation. charles: so with that in mind, what are you doing? what should investors consider for their own portfolios before the day's close? >> well, you know, charles, i definitely have some longses on. i will not bail on the tech stocks long-term but i am more heavily invested right now in energy plays. as long as crude stays above 85, chevron remains looking good. we have mpr, xom, these stocks look good, i love the solar stocks your previous guest is talking about, focused on consumer staples the long side, amazon, costco, walmart. a couple of discretionary names in there as well. i would be careful with it. you know what? i think we'll see september seasonality. i think earnings season in

october is going to be weak. so i would tell your viewers to look for some short plays. i think the semis will make new lows. i think nasdaq will most likely roll over again. you need to be hedged to the downside in case that happens. charles: let me pick up on that because you scored big time this past earnings season with some of those short calls, i mean like gargantuan, particularly the options side. should someone do that either puts on the broad market or index like the soxx or something like that? >> so you know if you're not an options trader i really point people towards inverse etfs because i think that is the best way to hedge your overall portfolio. if you are experienced in options, yes, looking at options simply on the indexes is generally going to be the easiest way to do that. if you give yourself enough time that will be the most conservative way to do it as well. if you like to get a little bit more wild like i do then yes, you can trade options on

earnings but make sure you give yourself a little bit of time and understand options are highly risky. you have to go into it willing to risk what you're willing to lose. charles: feeling a little risky, want to take a shot. danielle you've been fantastic. you had a great year. thank you a lot for sharing. we always learn a lot from you. >> thank you. charles: my takeaway on the u.s. stock market and unprecedented 70-year reign of queen elizabeth right after this

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let's partner for all of it. edward jones charles: it was just an absolute amazing scene. thousands lined the streets of scotland's capitol today just to watch the royal pre-session for queen elizabeth ii. she was britain's longest serving monarch with unprecedented 7 oyer reign. according to bespoke research, s&p 500 had 13 bear markets but still, get this folks, the market rallied 16,000%. that's 16,000% and it does not include dividends. the u.s. economy experienced 11 different confirmed recessions and this is during the reign of queen elizabeth ii. gdp per capita still more than tripled and the reason i bring this up is obviously the queen had a rich life and touched so many other lives but during that time period of you had just bought and held onto the stock market, your life could have turned around and you could have changed the course of the life

of your kids. it's a really important thing. we look at the market very closely here and try our best to help you and hold your hand day after day and it's an honor for us to do this and have you watch us do it, but don't ever completely bail out because this is the greatest money making machine any nonroyal had a chance to have access to; right, liz claman? liz: always. as we watch all of these numbers, i'm pretty surprised, chars, i don't know about you, but the key number at this hour is 4. it's the dow s&p and nasdaq closing higher, each will have strung together another bead on the win streak necklace making it four straight upside sessions. last time we saw that, early july so where is the optimism soming from as we kick off the final hour of trade? kind of everywhere. i mean, look at this, all 11 s&p sectors in the green just like back on friday. everything higher, the only difference is friday it was tech and consumer staples that led the charge. right now we have energy grabbing the spotlight followed