neil: all right, we are down about 23 points right now. we'll see what happens here. the 10-year, that is, 3 1/2%. you got to wonder that competition for stocks. here's charles. hey, cars. charles: neil, thank you very much, my friend. good afternoon, everyone, i'm charles payne, this is "making money." breaking right now the anxiety is so thick you can cut it with a knife. will the fed go too far other stop too short in their quest to beat inflation? one of today's guests says you should strap in to be uncomfortable. oil is sending food prices soaring. it might stop you soon from grabbing a nice cold beer. tracy shugart in the crazy

debacle in the clumsy battle to climate change. president bide having a marie antoinette moment, but the president basically saying let them eat cake. don luskin at 2:40. how we must stem the tide right now. all that and so much more on "making money." ♪ charles: historically, folks, this is the worst week of the year and the worst month of the year and when i hear that i'm not, you know, you hear that, i know people want to head for the hills but here's the thing if history repeats itself then think about this, you might want to buying. you will probably lament not taking action over the next couple weeks and next couple months or years. buyers of course are emerging but they understand, they don't have to force the issue, right? the overall stock market bias is still to the downside. you can wait for these daily

dips to start to nibble. we saw this on friday where that low tick ahead of the university of michigan sentiment read sparked buying later retested. we hit a low. then the read came in better than expected on the inflation side. we bounced. pulled back, right at the pullback buyers emerged. guess what? we saw the same thing happen today, right? a big opening dip and some buyers have shown up. i have to be honest with i love the fact the experts show you this the experts are sellers of this market. these are active investment managers, their exposure to the market relatively low. they're selling. every time they feel like buying they bling. that is good. i call that dry powder. that is what you do when buy this market. build positions. the fed meeting is looming like a cloud. they will try to do a lot of

things trying to whine inflation. it is not there interest is direct correlation between the stock mark evident can and the economy. here is as gdp improves guess what, so do earnings. we saw that in 2021. it is pretty straightforward, weak economic times, when gdp is going the wrong way so do earnings. this is where we are. these are years that are tough including 2023 and this recession. where do we go from here. we have to start with kaltbaum capital management gary kaltbaum. it sounds like a cliche, it seems like this next year will be more of a stock-picker's market than normal. you think so? i always think it is stock-picker's market. be out of most stocks, only be in a few areas. i follow 200 sectors, subsectors, every country, every

commodity. i'm always looking for what's leading, what's lagging. yeah i think it is going to be a little bit different when we move forward. why you said it best, earnings, we saw what happened, fedex i think that could be the rule, not the exception, so you better be on the mark. pie best advice to everybody, find the companies that are doing great things. charles: right. >> find the companies that have such strong demand there are lines around the corner whatever product or any service, find those companies with 50, 100% growth rates. those companies and their stocks will cut through any bearishness over time but during bear markets pretty much everything pay as penalty. charles: of course we talked about bear markets and bear market bounces. that means your holding periods if you want to get in there has to be shorter. i talked about this with my own subscribers t worked out okay for us, we had pretty big wins. how do you that, become more

nimble, be a buy and holder, you have to sort of take what what the market gives you right? >> yes. you let the market be your guide. don't try to dictate to the market, let the market dictate to you. when i see stocks en masse the last year breaking out of range, everyone of them failing, that tells me everything i need to know. if i start to see stocks breaking out of range, going up 20%, only pulling back 10, then continue up, then i see 10 more stocks in that group joining, i'm loving it. i'm joining in. so it is just a matter of letting the market dictate. right now my holding period is about eight minutes. get the heck out of the way. what is funny this whole bear market we bought in five times. it ended up being a holding period about, i only bought 20% into the market. i think average holding period is two weeks. as soon as the market gets big distribution from institutions which i'm pretty darn good

reading, i'm out of way and it paid off in droves this year. charles: another big debate is sectors. a lot of folks saying it won't be the megacap growth names. for instance, microsoft at 52 low. you and i talked about this, what group could have the sort of coattails that technology has had the last decade? >> technology and consumer oriented will always lead because that is where the big growth is but you're onto something there. the bigger a company grows, the bigger it gets the tougher to grow it the way it has in the past. i'm still asking myself how is apple with $2.4 trillion market cap, so many hundreds of billions in revenues going to be able to grow in the past? it won't be able toe. what you're just hoping for is decent growth. charles: right. >> find the companies that have 100 million in sales this year, doing 200 next year, maybe a billion four years from now,

those will be the big winners. those are the ones i'm studying right now. i'm going through every ipo over the last three years with a fine-tooth comb to see what is the great, great companies with the strong demand. it is still too early right now. i still think we're in a bear market. i still worry about you know who on wednesday that has been wrong 100% of the time. charles: yeah. >> i'm still just own the outside looking in. charles: i'm going through the same exercise. i'm salivating over the idea there is some great diamonds in the rough. they came out too expensive and i want to find them. gary we have to leave it there, my friend. always enjoy your conversations. i have to bring in io fund official technology analyst beth kindig. beth, the conversation gary and i had is one you witnessed first-hand. you saw the shift when technology overtook energy, the most valuable component of the s&p 500. let me ask you. i know your focus is on tech. is this premature the notion they can't lead the way anymore? >> it is premature.

i think within energy tech continues to lead. solar, renewables. these are tech companies. enphase is up 70 to 80%. obviously nasdaq, s&p 500 down 20 to 30% but within energy we're already seeing tech claim a spot as a leader within renewables. renewables are benefiting from high energy prices. there are two very important catalysts remain for both solar and ev. the first one is inflation reduction act. this will pour $369 billion into renewables. the second catalyst that european energy crisis which has natural gas up five-fold in europe, solar is the obvious solution here. i would say even within energy keep an eye on tech. charles: so funny you mentioned that because i have a chart up now of these solar names, you mentioned maxim up 84%, enphase up 74%. first solar for year which has been a also-ran, really showing

down versus 18% for s&p, even more for the nasdaq. can you chase these names here? do you game them, buy them, trade them? what is a strategy knowing that they're going to be a bigger part of our lives? >> that is the tricky part, charles. if it were easy it would would not be wall street. we put out a cautious note to the premium research members last week we would want to see the prices come down 30% and the reason for this both on the top line valuations and the bottom line valuations they're trading at their very high for 2022. in fact the only time they have traded higher was november's blow-off top. that is something we're not going to bet on happening again. we think it is prudent to be patient. there are strong fundamental stories. they need to come down in price. charles: i think a portion of inverse is happening evs. you mentioned ivs, some of the

names left for dead acting pretty good, rivians of the world, lucents of the world. is there an opportunity to get on board knowing there is greater than average risk? >> you make a great point, charles, ev stocks are interesting because the inflation reduction act will bring back the 7500-dollar tax credit for consumers of models made in the united states this is coming at a critical time when consumers are looking for deals. they're price comparing. if you get $7500 off on an ev, likely to go with ev model. if we see supply chains start to ease i think evs could be very interesting. charles: beth, always appreciate being able to tap into your expertise. all right, folks, the hottest stock in a real ugly market last week were all associated with food. fertilizer makers, potash producers, they were rocking last week. as the food crisis is moving out of the shadows of energy. it is get attention i think it deserved for a long time. i want to go to intelligence

quarterly partner, tracy shuchart. the policymakers put us in a precarious situation with energy, they did it with food. with the rules, one of the reasons fertilizer stocks are surging because the prices are surging as well, right? >> absolutely. we're seeing fertilizer names, they kind of came back off their highs from the last summer but we are seeing because of the energy crisis in the eu, we're seeing a lot of fertilizer plants shut down. we just had canada, who is 40% global supplier of the potash market is looking to restrict their supply and restrict their farmers. so i, what, you know, i think is, that you know, especially looking out into h-1, 2023 we'll have a huge problem as demand increases an -- and supply decreases as we head into the

planting seasons. charles: the stocks would they be a buy in your mind, mosaics of the world? >> absolutely we were in them earlier but we're definitely looking to get back into them. again i think they will be, i think we'll see the best performance in h-2, or h-1 of 2023. charles: okay. speaking of unintended consequences right of all these policies i'm reading all of these articles over the weekend, co2 problems, bankrupting beverage companies in the uk. they had article of beer supply america. i don't think people are seeing through catastrophe these policies will have so many niches of our lives, are they? >> absolutely. we actually started seeing problems this summer in the u.s. by late august because of fertilizer shortages we had co2

shortages which affects the meatpacking industry. meatpacking giant tyson and kraft heinz were searching for supplies. what further happened to exacerbate problems, contaminants were found in an innings extinct volcano where the many u.s. companies get fizzy beverage source from. charles: right. >> we have seen smaller craft brewers in san diego, in california, particularly a bigger problem, shut down. a lot of brewers in the united states are now also looking for nitrogen to use instead of co2. charles: we talk often about these policy mistakes that have been made on both sides of the atlantic, this rush to get into the green utopia even though the infrastructure is not there. the average person is paying amazing, a deadly price. i'm reading greenpeace issued an ultimatum to europe to take nuclear power off the table.

to me this sounded like insanity. you're into this more than anyone i know. your thoughts maybe that happening? >> you know, i think that, i think at this juncture it's, you know, the possibility of that happen something very slim. i think if you would, if this would have happened, you know, nine to 12 months ago, that would have been a different story but you know, we are seeing germany and the eu start to see, well, the disaster happen as far as because of their energy policies. charles: right. >> we are starting to see them kind of rethink these. have the uk bringing on eight nuclear reactors. i don't think these kind of environmental groups have this much pull as they would have had a year ago. charles: real quick, 30 seconds to go. crude oil still struggling a little bit. is this now, down seem like supply and demand anymore. seems more like worries about

recession. what is holding back the prices right now? >> i again worries about recession. it's, never ending covid, zero covid policy lockdowns in china and more russian barrels on the market than we had anticipated and of course the spr drop. but all of those are coming to the, well, at least the spr draw is coming to the end of october. we have to see what happens after the peoples party congress in china to see what xi does, if he opens up the country again. these are all factors we should be looking forward to in the last part of q4. charles: right. >> that could be upside catalysts. charles: yeah. i mean i still think everyone should have exposure to the space because when it takes off i think it will take off like a rocket, a gusher to use a phrase. tracy, thank you so much, appreciate you. >> thank you. charles: all right, folks bitcoin slumping to the lowest level in three months.

i will ask layah heilpern what the heck is going on. buckle up, historic week for the markets compounded by the fact it is a midterm year. we're going to the charts. grand a pen. we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today.

pst. girl. you can do better. at least with your big-name wireless carrier. with xfinity mobile you can get unlimited for $30 per month on the nation's most reliable 5g network. they can even save you hundreds a year on your wireless bill over t-mobile, at&t, and verizon. wow. i can do better! yes you can!

i can do better, too! now you really can do better! switch to the fastest mobile service - xfinity mobile. now with the best price on two lines of unlimited. just $30 a line.

♪. charles: all right, so we came into this week, right, the s&p 500, just a tick under that 3900 support point that most technicians agreed is critical. now on top of that historically this is a week right after september options expiration, that's usually the toughest of the year and then there's also the seasonality factors to go with this so this a big chart school. we brought in fund stats mark newton to help us with this. mark, begin the fact this is also an election year. this is your non-election year in the yellow. this is the election year. i got to be, remarkable to me this is following the script tremendously here. we're going into the last week of september under a tremendous

amount of pressure. it also suggests we want to get long into october, a typical midterm year. what changes this year? >> i think that is exactly what is going to happen, charles. look we all know september historically very bad. even midterm election year is worse. it tends the be worst month of the year, down average of .9 a percent. we interesting peaked around the 8th or 9th trading day of september which we did on cue this week. we should sell into the first week of october. then i think we'll find some relief. we're not too far off, seasonally speaking we're bottoming out. charles: you think we pick up that same type of momentum particularly after the election? >> i'm hopeful this should track the 60 year cycle since 1962. lots of weakness early on in the year, we bottom, tend to go up. pest minimum right now is very high. cycles point higher into year-end. i don't know if it will be a straight shot i think next three months will be better than

september. charles: that 1962 you mentioned why is that sew important by the way? >> okay. charles: stick here with this, letting me know, other than the fact i was born in that year, what is so important bit? [laughter] >> historically the market runs in 20 years cycle. the 6th year is most important of any of them. gann made that popular in the 19 teens. this year is very much like 1962. investors go back the past few years, the sixth year is something investors pay attention to. charles: i want to ask you couple things specifically. transportation. the huge hit from the fedex warning a key support point, a lot of these names, industrials number one performing sector in the market. a lot of names are bouncing. even fedex is bouncing is it very critical we hold right now? do we have to see a stand in transportation names to feel better about the broader market rally? >> it's a leading sector. you want to see it at some point start to stablize. breaking at this level is

important. it did that briefly and it held. what we're not seeing here, 50% retracement of the entire move up since 2020. to have confidence you want to retake the prior lows. say we sell off in early october. you want to see that level reclaim that would give you a little bit of confidence. charles: this support numbers becomes resistance on the upside later? >> that's correct. charles: get to an area more interesting. we talked about nat-gas earlier in the show. you said i remember reading this might be a make-or-break behind here? >> technically speaking we could be a large so-called head and shoulder pattern developing the last few months. europe has done a great job stockpiling inventories. they're unto 85%. russia cut off the for things like ung. you don't want to see a move down 7 1/2 if you're long nat-gas. that would cause a move down likely to high-fives end of

year. charles: for the most part how do you ride this out? how are you suggesting to investors to ride this part out? this is still the diceyest part of the year. certainly if you held on this long you don't want to blink now. >> i agree. if you're not in cash, you really want to be in defensive sectors, utilities, staple, health care is under a little bit of pressure today. that is generally an area to be. the dollar is still going higher. it's a tough spot. you want to hang on into october, buyer of equities commodities, treasurys. peak out in early part of october. that should lead the market, stock market higher as yields start to role over. charles: have a little bit more cash than normal? >> 100%. if you're short term focused that is the way to be. charles: mark, thank you very much. >> thank you. >> folks i love hearing from you about all these things. send us a comment about the show with a question, particularly amazing guests like mark. tweet me @cvpayne. i asked our pollers are you buying or selling this week?

sandy said definitely holding not selling. angie tweeting not buying until we test the low at this rate, should be what, wednesday? grammy, buying a more secure mattress to put my money under. i hear you. my next guest says strap on in folks because getting comfortable with getting uncomforteddable is the only choice you have. we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ this... is the planning effect. this is how it feels to know you have a wealth plan that covers everything that's important to you. this is what it's like to have a dedicated fidelity advisor looking at your full financial picture. making sure you have the right balance of risk and reward.

and helping you plan for future generations. this is "the planning effect" from fidelity. go. go green. go wind turbines. go gorgeous reliable grid. go emerson software. go science people. go breakthrough meds and safe science. go space age welds for super silent cars. go big. or go home. from software that delivers new cures at warp speed, to technology that makes clean energy reliable, emerson innovation helps make the world healthier, safer, smarter and more sustainable. go boldly. emerson.

another busy day? of course - you're a cio in 2022.

but you're ready. because you've got the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business. with fully integrated security solutions all in one place. so you're covered. on-premise and in the cloud. you can run things the way you want - your team, ours or a mix of both. with the nation's largest ip converged network. from the most innovative company. bring on today with comcast business. powering possibilities. i've always loved building things. not just structures and skyscrapers, but teams who make it all possible. after all... we wouldn't be where we are today without them. so we made sure that like these buildings... their futures may also stand the test of time. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

with my hectic life you'd think retirement would be the last thing on my mind. thankfully, voya provides comprehensive solutions and shows me how to get the most out of my workplace benefits. voya helps me feel like i've got it all under control. voya. well planned. well invested. well protected. ♪. charles: all right. inflation, recession, it is, the debate is getting more intense, right? and more and more economists seem to be shifting to the recession side. the focus of course is not whether it is too premature to

really figure any of this stuff out particularly after the cpi report but ultimately where do we go? according to a recent bank of america survey 38% of these participants see inflation or recession but 28% say there is combination of inflation and slower growth. 20% say no, disinflation and recession. how about this one? 14% disinflation but no recession. which one would you pick? joining me lgim american strategist anthony wood side. along with former white house chief economist jo-jo lavorgna, which are you in? or do you your own group? >> i think i'm special, charles, 38% buck wet. charles: inflationary/recession. >> we're in inflationary recession. necessary year because of the fed tightening we'll get more of we'll be in traditional recession. charles: anthony? >> we're we somewhere a little bit of debate. we're definitely not in recession but the direction of

travel going into recession the next 12 months. like joe said we're very much of the opinion inflation will be sticky and entrenched hish. we expect inflation well above the fed's target. charles: what about stagflation? are any of you in the stagflation camp? >> technically we are, growth is negative, gdp is negative, inflation running faster than growth. it is not like it was in the '70s one employment much higher. charles: right. >> however if anthony's store of high inflation persists that will feel much more like the '70s, much more higher unemployment, elevated inflation. charles: this morning the global head of u.s. strategies at bank of america said the fed will probably overdo it that probably will result in recession. everyone agrees we think we're in one now or inevitable in part because the fed will overdo it. is that the one of the main reasons, anthony this particular fed, they will be so wedded to

the new hawkish stance they force this reessential? that would make it deeper than it has to be, right? >> sure. we look at a couple things. the fed was so behind the curve. now they're desperate to catch up to the macroeconomic reality on the ground. they have to do more than they otherwise would. we would caution invests basically you want to understand the change in your relationship with the central bank. they will keep on hiking rates, because what they don't want to happen is for inflation to get entrenched. we lose complete credibility on the inflationary tiff here. charles: although a little late [laughter]. >> fair point. charles: joe, what about this wage spiral? because this seems to me to be the conundrum. wages are going up. because wages are going up people are still spending. nominal spending is still pretty strong. because they keep spending inflation keeps going up. inflation keeps going up people want higher wages, how do you snap that. is that what the fed is trying to do? >> right now wages are rising as you say but still not keeping up

with inflation. so we're getting declines in real wages. living standards are declining not improving. why charles, consumer confidence is in deep recessionary territory. the fear the fed has of course is that anthony alluding to inflationary expectations become unanchored. right now inflation is running so fast you would expect, i expect consumer confidence, consumer spending because of consumer confidence to roll over. you will see much weaker gdp if my forecast is right. charles: michigan consumer sentiment came down with one read, anthony. >> investors, basically they see what the fed is doing, if you look what is currently priced in for fed tightening the market expects the terminal rate to peak at 4 1/2%. there is this general idea that investors feel that the fed is going to enough to stifle inflation. inflation expectations are pretty benign but on your wage spiral question what the fed is trying to do, they're trying to attract more labor

participation. right now we're at 62.4, a percent below pre-pandemic highs. that is how you try to mitigate -- charles: when the stimmies run out, how can you get people to come to work if they're still, listen we did get a huge chunk in, over 700,000. we get the unemployment number. i guess what people want to see over and over again. i want to give you props on the line, i used at the beginning of the show, you have to get comfortable to being uncomfortable to some degree, anthony. >> that is exactly right. get ready to be comfortable with being uncomfortable. charles: joe is old enough to 1984, the cars, who will drive you home tonight? >> rick okaek. charles: that's right. japan from 14% of ownership of treasurys to 4%. they're not buying. fed will not buy. who will buy the treasurys. how do we fund the government?

>> domestic accounts. life insurance. charles: to that degree? >> charles, 3.50 10-year treasury relative to uk or italy, some of these other places, also have big bond markets is actually attractive. the dollar is very strong. there will be buyers, always will, at a price. charles: great discussion, appreciate it. joe, anthony, let's talk again real soon. meanwhile folks, bitcoin one of your hedges against inflation is at a three month low. key look not only support but get it moving back to the upside. president biden having his let them eat cake moment on "60 minutes," inflation not a big deal. i will ask don luskin what he thinks. he after the break. ♪

[acoustic soul music throughout] [acoustic soul music throughout] [acoustic soul music throughout] [acoustic soul music throughout] [acoustic soul music throughout]

♪. charles: so yesterday during an interview with "60 minutes" president biden bristled at the notion inflation is a major problem in the united states since it is not rocketing that much since early this summer. take a listen. president biden: inflation rate month to month is just an inch. hardly at all. >> you're not arguing that 8.3 is good news. >> i'm not saying good news t was 8.2 or 8.2 before. i can make it sound all of sudden it went to 8.2%. >> it highest inflation rate, mr. president in 40 years? >> president biden: i got that. guess where we are? we're in a position for the last several months it hasn't spiked and it is just barely, it has been basically even. in the meantime we created all these jobs. charles: all right. so i mean those are the kind of responses really that insult the intelligence of struggling americans. joining me now, trend macro chief investment officer don

luskin. don, there is a famous line attributed to marie antoinette whereupon being told that the peasants had no bread, she said rhett them each brios, we translate into cake t was staple of consumption. it was the 50% of household budgets for peasants and working class people. i will shot a chart to the audience, the cost of bread in this country up than 16% double inflation. when president biden talks about these numbers in such a flippant way i don't think he understands the impact. people are suffering out there, aren't they? >> the marie antoinette nollgy is absolutely perfect. don't think president biden or another washington swamp creature for that that ther, been in grocery store and bought bread in a store in 50 years. no wonder he tells 60 minutes, grateful, guess what?

don't you hate it when he says, inflation hasn't spiked for several months t was up over 1% in march. over 1% in june. that is within several months. he claims the economy is booming even though we're finishing up our third negative gdp quarter in a row? i'm beginning to think he is not entirely truthful at all times. charles: his side would argue it is great the government stepped up. federal government 47% of their budget what they call transfer payments. a big portion of social security and things like that but they point out this is keeping people out of poverty. that is sort of a specious bragging point. the poverty line for family of four is $26,500. moreover, living standards, don are better for folks in slovenia than poor americans. maybe we should start to find a way to get people off the government programs. to me it seems like a trap?

>> well it is a trap. and you know, one of the reasons it is a trap is when you have been earning tax-free income support payments all your life, soon as you get a job, not only do you have to work you have to pay taxes on the money that comes in. so it is a trap and it's a trap for smart people who can do that simple arithmetic. but the psychological part of the trap is this, it is a lot subtler, people in slovenia, within you know, our lifetimes, they were liberated from communism. so they know what it is like to have the privilege of working, to have the privilege of self-determination. we have gotten so fat and happy with our privileges of freedom and capitalism, we take them for granted. we just object to the fact oh, my god i might have to actually work. no, it's a privilege to have the self-determination and meaning in life of work. >> is sort of shocking though when you get that first paycheck, you start seeing all these people on there, like who

the hell is fica? were are these people getting a piece of my action. there are seven people, i don't know them. none of my cousins are on the check. don, thank you so much. we always have to remind ourselves how great we are and how great we can be appreciate it. >> every day, man. charles: layah heilpern coming up to talk about bitcoin. it is struggling at a key support point. i want to get her thoughts on that. and the ethereum merge, i don't know if she is a fan of that we had an ipo, not a ipo but a spac deal. rumble in the junk gell. are the spacs coming back? i'm nervous about that. ann berry is here on that. ♪ you'll always remember buying your first car. and buying your starter home. or whatever this is.

but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them. we believe that your investments should work harder for the future you imagine. and that's where our strategic investing approach can help. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ >> the day you get your clearchoice dental implants makes every day... a "let's dig in" day...

>> mm. >> ...a "chow down" day... a "take a big bite" day... a "perfectly delicious" day... >> mm. [ chuckles ] >> ...a "love my new teeth" day. because your clearchoice day is the day everything is back on the menu. a clearchoice day changes every day. schedule a free consultation.

charles: okay, bitcoin fans, here we go again. the world's top cryptocurrency under the gun, dipping under the 19 level. it has been pretty good support. it has attracted the buy on dips crowd over and over and over again. what happened if it doesn't? what happens if the level fails? we have podcast host, bitcoin expert layah heilpern.

where is the pressure coming from all of a sudden? >> i think there are two main macroeconomic factors i would say causing a lot of the selling pressure. the first is inflation. we have the cpi data come out last week and inflation is actually much higher than expected. it was 8.3%. it is only at 8.2%. still a lot higher than expected. we see inflation clearly not cooling off anytime soon. people simply don't have the surplus cash to start putting into simply just invest. they don't have the surplus cash to invest. they need to put that into everyday living. as a result of inflation, we're now expecting the fed to start to increase interest rates. and this is expected to be the highest increase in 40 years. and when that happens, obviously that strengthens the dollar. it means alternative asset classes, risk-on assets like bitcoin do tend to start to be sold. charles: this sort of 18,000 level, the first time we got here a lot of folks who love about it coin said it wasn't going to hold.

people talked about going as low as 10,000? is that a possibility in your mind? >> i think anything is possible. ultimately i do like to look at historical data. so on the last bull market we saw bitcoin crash 80%. if we were to go to buy that data. i would expect an 80% correction which would take us down to around 13,000, $14,000. for me that kobe the bottom that is very likely. $10,000 have to be some kind of a black swan event like with covid march of 2020. also important to consider the support levels out there. there is a support level to $15,000, which again would make sense to go back down to that 13,000, 14,000-dollar level which would be the 80% retracement. 10 is likely. anything is likely. but i think more likely would be 13, 14. charles: before i let you go, i have to ask you about, there was so much hype over the ethereum merge. it happened. the whole thing landed like a dud. buy the rumors, sell the news i

guess. some say it's a better option than bitcoin because of the power consumption? >> no. that is intellectually lazy. i don't know why people say this. bitcoin is proof of work. basically it can be mined from anywhere in the world. miners are literally incentivized to seek out, cheaper, inexpensive wasted energy. a lot of the time major power plants are built for the demands of energy in 20 years from now. so bitcoin miners can swoop in, use that already existing infrastructure to mine bitcoin. which is, cheaper and greener, better for the environment. the tradeoff with ethereum, going to proof of stake, what that stage is, means it's a little bit like the fiat system, more money you have, more ether you have, more power you have over the network. i don't really like that very much. that is very centralized. that why bitcoin was created to have decentralized network.

doesn't matter how much money you have you're not in control of the governance and the system. bitcoin literally allows miners to seek out cheaper renewable energy. that is the most important point. 57% of bitcoin uses renewable energy. charles: i will put you down still pondering on ethereum, not sure just yet. maybe. leia, thank you very much. appreciate it. we have ann berry. you're always living your best life like these bitcoiners but investors apparently aren't being able to do that for a while. last time i saw you said the market pulling back 15%. do you see that potential vulnerability? >> i definitely do. for the record i'm not living my life like bitcoin, that is heading further south. 15% down is ways to go. charles: you think it goes much lower? >> i absolutely do if rates come up. charles: what the general pressure on all of these things, right? usually something is working in the investing world, this is one

of those years nothing is working with stocks, bonds, gold, bitcoin. the best asset is bitcoin. outside of the initial commodities boom. >> that's right. i've been colding cash and dividend yield. you and i talked about this in the past. something with a bit of cash. >> we have a spac sighting. >> we do. charles: rumble young men, rumble. rumble went public via a spac up a million dollars up 14%. are you buyer? >> absolutely not. this is exactly i would not be buying right now for the following reasons, charles, i'm emphatic about this. it has no revenue. it is burning cash m it is in a industry with no barrier to entry. there a lot of mini rumbles popping up. i'm not a buyer and i hope no one else is either. charles: talking about last month about elon musk. sounded like you were thinking about tesla. the stock is up 30 bucks. are you buying any? >> i didn't. ford and general motors. something i understood delled on

i went back to the mature players in the space. i like free cash flow in the rising rate environment. charles: pretty good risk/reward with the stocks. 238 days without a tech ipo worth $50 million. maybe jump many bab next year feels like it could be further off than that. >> it is really interesting, when you break down the numbers, charles, ipos are down 80% which last year was peaking year. proceeds from the ipos are down 90%. people are going out. not raising money. people will wait. charles: you are telling people taking high low approach with respect to the market what does that mean? >> look back a prior recessions or call it soft landings or consumer sentiment being soft, two kinds of consumer retail segments have done well, luxury, lvmh, more your tile, charles, or dollar general. people tend to go for real value or invest in more expensive

pieces. >> shoes, lvmh, socks, dollar general. >> exactly. charles: appreciate it, ann. we'll be right back. ♪ go. go scientist. go software. go cure. go production. go faster and safer. emerson automation software helps breakthrough medicines get to market at warp speed. go human go. go boldly. emerson.

i'm a performing artist. so a healthy diet is one of the most important things. i also feel the same way about my dog. we got her the farmer's dog sent in the mail. it was all fresh. i want my dog to have a healthy and long life. the farmer's dog helps that out. see the benefits of fresh food at betterforthem.com if you shop with the walmart app? you know everything you need is right at your fingertips. ♪ so you can spend a little less, to get a little more. to make life a little better.

like many families, the auburns value time spent together. to share wisdom... i got some of my gold before i came to this country. i got some of my gold before you passed the bread. encourage one another... i can buy gold for this?! you can buy gold for this. and talk about life's wins and misses. responsibly sourced like my gold but not responsibly cooked. because at the end of the day, nothing keeps it all together quite like - gold. visit invest.gold to see how gold is everyone's asset. ♪ choosing miracle-ear was a great decision. like when i decided to host family movie nights. miracle-ear made it easy. i just booked an appointment and a certified hearing care professional evaluated my hearing loss and helped me find the right device calibrated to my unique hearing needs. now i enjoy every moment. the quiet ones and the loud ones.

make a sound decision. call 1-800 miracle now, and book your free hearing evaluation. want an engaging website to boost your business? you're just a click away from five star fiverr talent. hundreds of freelancer skills like web design. head to fiverr.com today and get something started. muck. charles: all right, so as everyone employees, right, i'm really focused on helping people achieve their financial goals and empowerment. and i know it's easier and more attainable with an economic

backdrop that actually encourages success. it lows for failure or and what i think is a never ending chance to open new doors. now, in addition to government being too big and too substance abusive, you know, and, by the way, looking to punish folks who are doing very well, i see two other dangers out there. population -- population growth is in absolute freefall. we need more people in this country, smart immigration policies, obviously. we control who is allowed into the country, we want certain skills. but for me, i think we want higher birthright rates -- birthrates. people are helping doom the economy by not having children. finish i'm also concerned about rampant corruption, there's a direct correlation between corruption and real gdp growth. we're really beginning to slip down pretty far. we're real close to saudi arabia. to fix this, we have to stop

looking the other way when the corrupt person is someone that you like, someone in your political party. those are the folks we really should be holding the most accountable. so everything is this place, but with we've got to make sure, i mean, these are things that, when they're broken, you cannot fix them, right this so we can't let them get broken in the first place. nobody better to hold your hand over the next hour than liz claman. liz: charles, you know what i was realizing in wednesday, our two-hour block, could very well be the most important two hours of the year so far for investors. charles: i think you're right. i think you're 100% right. liz: set the d the vr now -- dvr or if you're old school, vcr. countdown clock to wednesday, 2-4 p.m. western -- eastern, has officially started until the federal reserve not only announces by how much it has decided to hike interest rates, and,,s yes, we're pretty safe saying hik