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tv   Making Money With Charles Payne  FOX Business  October 7, 2022 2:00pm-3:00pm EDT

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neil: all right, the sell-off ensues taking a look at the dow 30 only two components are up, chevron, not surprisingly because of the energy situation, they're racing ahead and merck, well because of like this you probably need drugs in a market like this , to charles payne. hey, charles. charles: neil, i won't touch that one although i know what you're talking about for sure, [laughter] thank you so much. neil: all righty. charles: good afternoon, i'm charles payne this is "making money" and stocks are really tumbling and this as the jobs report really dashed hopes the fed be easing up on their seek and destroy mission but ed yardeni is here and he says they have gone too far and the white house is touting those job numbers but i'm calling them out because in this case the devil is the details folks. by the way i want to know what you think tell me, please, tweet me at cvpayne, what do you
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believe about this economy and the job market as the show goes on i'll share some with all of the audience plus dianne swank gives us her take on the economy also want to ask about a survey her firm did about recession 91% of ceo's say it's happening. and amd warning overnight last night, that's a reminder this could be a terrible earnings season. maybe not. you might surprise you. i'm going to tell you why just need to be careful and not panic and then my takeaway or what i believe is a true labor force, and why i think we're really truly in trouble. all that and so much more on " making money." all right, so the headlines september jobs report came in slightly better than consensus, and the unemployment rate actually declined. now this led to an avalanche of headlines with the release calling it a strong jobs report. i'm really not that excited in terms of that. there were really a myriad of
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reasons that i wasn't excited about it beginning with the so-called u 3 unemployment rate which can often mask serious pain and in this case i think it did as well. by the way i'm never going to be in the camp that celebrates fewer people and labor force and that's one of the main things that skews that u 3 number but i do agree the number doesn't not move the needle much when it comes to the federal reserve. maybe hourly wages we know that they are substantially below the rate of inflation but have they already gone too far or will they go too far, yardeni research president, ed yardeni. your note this week titled the fed is too hawkish, echo my feelings as well and yesterday they were laying it on thick. every time you looked around someone, they were threatening armageddon and here is the thing they are going to be authors of armageddon. it's not like we're going to get hit by a rock. they are like we're pushing down the lever and blowing this up ourselves. is this tough guy act going too far? >> i think that channeling
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their inner volcker is almost as though we are experiencing volcker 2.0. what's really disturbing is that back in july, they had very reasonable outlook for what they were going to do. they were going to raise interest rates in september and probably again in november, and then they were going to pause and just see how it all plays out. back in july, fed chair powell was saying that there's a lot of tightness in the pipeline, and that we shouldn't rush it, and then all of a sudden, the whole narrative changes with the jackson hole speech and now with the september press conference, suddenly, they are invoker mode. charles: you know, and to that point, i feel like they are playing to an audience of critics. you remember that senate hearing i think it was the senator from alabama said you know paul volcker, i feel like that they have fallen into a trap, and unfortunately, the majority of americans have to pay a price with that and if they go too far what would it look like on main
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street? >> well i think you're right. i think they made a mistake back in august of 2020 when they prioritized bringing the unemployment rate down and not worrying about the inflation rate and now they are actually going the exact opposite way and just going volcker on us and just saying they are going to raise interest rates until they see signs that inflation is coming down, even though they, themselves, have said it could take sometime for this thing to work. what's the rush? they have done 300 basis points already in the fed funds rate since march, and they are probably going to do 75 at the november meeting so 375 basis points in less than a year, it makes your head spin, and could make the , it could really be a problem for the economy. as a matter of fact we know that the housing recession is definitely on and it's difficult charles: there was something interesting though, they all kind of insight the worrisome stuff christopher waller trying to sort of clarify this notion
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because there's a lot of scuttle but about liquidity and the treasury market and he was saying there's two things the $2.2 trillion program if they ever need they can tamp that down and banks have that as an emergency cushion and also, really, treasury sellers who aren't getting the price they want are simply wining and it's not really a liquidity issue. are those good enough answers for you? >> well, i think it's clear that the banking system is in great shape and they are sitting on a tremendous amount of liquidity and they are actually making loans. unfortunately, some of those loans are for unintended inventory building in the retail sector. i think where the fed is missing the point is that the alternative to volcker 2.0 if they keep going might be bern anke 2.0 and had to deal with financial instability, and if you look around the world and see what the fed's very tight hawkish approach has done is a soaring dollar and at the same time by the way reducing their balance sheet so the net effect
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of all of this tightening is, i think, certainly having its repercussions on a global basis and if we aren't careful we'll have an emerging microcrisis fairly soon and then the question is what's the fed going to do? just keep going no matter what breaks in the financial system? charles: i think it was waller also who says they aren't really looking around the world at other countries, but we know that they are and we know that there's a great responsibility with great power. >> should be. stuart: ed, i encourage everyone to read that report. it's like all of your reports fantastic, thank you, ed. >> thank you very much. charles: hey, i want to bring in grant storage chief economist diana swankin. i want to pick-up on those comments about christopher waller about liquidity. i'm going to paraphrase we joked on october 31 liquidity and pumpkins very high by november 1 liquidity goes to zero. was that too glib or does that accurately explain for the audience that maybe we're just too concerned about something that's not a problem?
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>> well i think from the federal reserve's perspective, what he's doing is sort of level-setting the idea that the fed, you know, people think that the fed just jumps in anytime the financial markets crash. actually that's not the case. they jump in when they see a seizure in credit markets which is what ed is worried about and eluding to about another crisis although i would argue it might not be an emerging markets crisis, it could be to wreckless tax cuts in the uk so it's kind of interesting where we could see these rate hikes ricochet around the world but what he's saying is unless we see a real seizure in credit markets unless the system looks like it's actually breaking which could happen, the feds got a very high threshold to intervene and will continue on its path to derail an inflation that now has been around longer, and has the risk of sticking and i think another survey and i know you'll ask me about our ceo survey but we just did an inflation survey and those people have the most control over setting wages and
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prices. our survey suggests in business leaders and ceo's that they expect inflation and wage gains and wage costs to persist longer and at a higher pace than most consumers. charles: so two things with respect to what happened with the bank of england, vis-a-vis the uk tax cuts, or whether it's an emerging market crisis. both still have the same backdrop and it comes back to us in the united states whereas maybe waller and the fed has confidence in what they can do. what about the idea maybe some other central bankers doesn't have that kind of leverage. we all kind of remember these big economic moments that began with things no one heard of like the tide bot. should we be concerned about that? >> we should be, and i think the fed is concerned about it. it's just not their primary concern at the moment. their primary concern is they are choosing the lesser of two evils and i do think we're going
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into a recession and they are choosing what they hope to be a mild recession to get inflation down overtime rather than something that's more severe. it's easier said than done. the worst case scenario is to let inflation persist and have the mistakes of the 1960s and 70 s taunt the fed in october, appropriate they are haunted by it. they don't want to have a more sustained bout of inflation because let's face it the reason that most people feel we're already in a recession is because all that they gained in wages as the economy reopened, they've lost and then some to the rise in inflation so they literally feel like they are losing ground even though we've generated a lot of jobs. charles: but in a way they are. if you consider that real wages have been down every single month since april of last year. i mean, you don't have, you have less purchasing power, and the house you want to buy, tried a year and a half ago would have been $300,000 more making the same monthly payments. i do want to ask you about that
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kpmg ceo survey that i saw yesterday and it blew me away because i'm not sure how often you get 91% of ceo's to agree on anything so they are saying a recession in the next 12 months. >> kind of like getting an economist to agree? charles: [laughter] there's a lot of jokes in there. not only in the next 12 months in recession but here is the part i think 34% saying that only 34% think that it be mild or short. that seems pretty ominous to me. >> it is really interesting as one of the things that's in the survey is because the perspective from the u.s. is we had done so much better in many ways than other countries did performance-wise and profits -wise they were feeling pretty good, so the thought of recession, the couldn't text on it, they are much more gloomy than ceo's abroad, in part, in the u.s. , because we had a better economic situation. the other issue though is that they do believe we're going to have a recession and i think they are right and they are looking forward and seeing same
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things that we're seeing, and that is overtime, this is a very different rate hiking cycle. this is a rate hiking cycle not to preempt inflation and all due respect and i don't disagree with everything ed said but let's face it from the fed' perspective, they think that move from zero to 2.25 to 2.5 by july, that got them to what they thought they believe is a neutral or non-inflationary rate of the fed funds rate. the overnight rate, so moving above that, this is just the beginning of moving into the threshold for them of more restrictive monetary policy. that said, i agree that it ricochets around the world, the fed is the de facto central bank of the world and the risk is that we get a vicious cycle globally in terms of what's going on and we're already see ing that in trade flows. when the trade deficit improves because imports fall more rapidly than exports, that's not a great situation. charles: it's not. you know what though it's great that we had you here to help us out with this really particularly today. this is like a topic that's
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become very main street and everybody wants to understand it more so thank you very much, dianne. >> thank you. charles: folks, let's go to gary kaltbaum, one of our favorites here. listen i know you're not a real big fan of the fed. here is the thing. we spoke to ed. we spoke to dianne, two pillars, right, two giants in our industry differing a little bit but things that bothers me is that the fed is doing what it's doing. the extra pounding the table. the extra fear mongering part of this job. i think it exacerbated today's move so the jobs report comes in a few thousand jobs above consensus and the wheels come off. your thoughts? >> charles, i have to hand it to you. for months you were saying that they wanted markets to go down and the economy to suffer and i'm saying to myself, why would anybody want that? but guess what? when the jackson hole speech came out and the dow dropped a
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thousand, cash carry comes out and says he's happy, you had recession talk yesterday with all these speeches, and all we kept hearing was, even if we have recession, we're still going to raise rates. mary daily of san francisco said if the employment number came out today weak, that be good news. they are rooting for lower prices and less jobs. these are our central bankers, it's supposed to be about stability. there's been nothing but in stability, and these are markets yelling and screaming that these are the people that are running the show. i was wrong. i thought there's no way anybody would want that. you were right, my friend. charles: i'm sad i was right about that and you know what's really interesting to that point , gary? that the doves have become the biggest hawks. it's so ironic. the converts have become like, you know, they are the zealous now, the ones breathing fire
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every time they speak so whether it's a daily and i don't know if they are trying to say some weird way that they know they blew it and so they are going to over do it this time. >> charles here is the problem. they really think they can control a $40 trillion market and a $20 trillion economy and they cannot. now when they printed up to $9 trillion, got europe to do the same, you can bubble up assets but look what happens. i've always said the asset bubble is going to pop and pop badly. i think they have really no control right now and the yield on the 10 year at 3.9 they are only at 3 it the yield on the two year is like 4.3 so they are just playing catch up. i don't think they really have a lot of control and i think you really have the markets now and i use this term a lot. yelling and screaming at these people just really screwed up, they have been zero for a hundred on everything, late on anything, and now, they just
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don't shut up. 31 speeches in the last two days , all speeches saying we want to stomp things out. these are people, there are going to be people losing a lot of jobs in the next four months, what are we at 3.5 on the unemployment? i say we're going to five to six by march, that's always the late game unemployment and it looks like they are going to be happy about it. charles: they will take a victory lap. i've got 30 seconds. gotta tap your knowledge about this market. you obviously have been cautious for a long time going back to last november. >> yes. charles: is it best for most people watching if they can to just sit on their hands for now? >> look, we're 100% cash and we're not playing footsie. when you see amd missed by a billion dollars, the misses on fedex and target, nike, we're not talking about fly-by-nights here. we're talking about some serious companies that are used to managing their businesses well, so one has to worry whose next and why, and we've got it, and i don't know if it's a knockout
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punch, oil is 76-92 in the last nine days. the only thing going good for us was that oil was coming down. now it's skyrocketing which means at the pump in about seven to 10 days we'll have a big move to the upside and i'm not so sure the economies going to be able to withstand that along with everything else we're see ing unfortunately. charles: yeah. gary, my friend, thank you very much and have a great weekend. all right, folks, so we have 450,000 more jobs that we did in february 2020. the unemployment, the employment -to-population ratio is millions of miles lower , participation rate mills of miles lower. when they say we're in a strong jobs market, i just have to disagree but i want to hear what you have to say. tweet me @ cvpayne. i'm old enough to remember when good employment news was good for the market. thanks, me too. by the way folks keep sending those thoughts i'll read as many as i can. you have a lot of opinions. also we'll dig into what's perhaps the most misty
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mystifying part of this jobs market. why people won't hit the bricks and come back. there's jobs out there, take one economist chris loads with me, next. ♪ the show goes on ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪
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charles: all right, as we have been saying the fed has been talking tough but you know some people don't think that talking tough enough. right now the so-called dot plot , the fed announced these rates, possibly hitting 5%, my next guest says try 6%. joining me now, fhn financial chief economist chris low. chris, my man. i don't think anyone else is at 6%. >> no. in the bloomberg surely right now, the highest behind me is five. charles: wow. >> but they will get think. charles: all right, so why is your number so much different than everyone else's? >> well, you know, the way we get to that forecast is we focus on what the fed is saying. so the beginning of it is their pivot from sort of inflation is transitory to oh, you know some of these problems are sticking
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around for a while. this is stubborn, and the latest pivot to focusing on tight job markets driving service inflation, and when you look at that core service inflation, the cleveland fed median for example, we're talking 6.7% now. it is red hot. charles: does the fed, apparently, from what i've read, the end of bear markets come or the end of inflation when the fed rates go above the rate of inflation, we're talking 8% inflation right now. that's off the table, so at some point, they have to raise it to a certain level and hope that if inflation drifts back under that number is that it? >> that's the hope, and you know what? what powell said the other day, he was asked about the taylor rule which is much higher like 7.5% fed funds rate, and what he said was we don't go by a strict rule of course but it is ubiquitous at the fed. it gets into everything when we
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think about policy. they've got about 10 different versions of it. i've run through all of them, and, you know, the bottom line is what they have in common, the starting point is the core inflation rate plus some guess at what the natural rate is, so with core inflation at 5%, and the natural rate probably at 1%, that's actually a neutral fed funds rate at the current level of inflation. you're supposed to be above that , and i think they realize that but they are hoping the current trajectory of inflation, which has eased up the last few months, will continue, and that can meet in the middle. charles: so they were so wrong for a long time last year. do you think part of being wrong was this hope, let's call powell 2.0 i don't know when he had his epiphany, i think it was at christmastime, 2018 after the fourth rate hike, the market is in turmoil and he walked past
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a homeless person or something but came out completely different than january. powell 2.0 and talked about affecting things, changing unemployment rates for black people, hispanic people, not just the headline numbers but really getting into the nitty gritty of somehow fed policy being able to even effect some sort of social change. do you think that was part of the reasons we just wouldn't admit to themselves that inflation was getting out of hand last year? >> yeah, i think that's very much part of it and another part is they really don't trust their own forecasting ability right now, and so they pick data to watch and wait for that to heal. at that time, he was saying we're going to wait until the unemployment rate gets to a certain level and then we'll start fighting inflation. now, he's saying, we're going to wait until inflation gets to a certain level and then start worrying about the employment. you have to keep both of those in mind. charles: the dual mandate maybe at this point feels like it's too onerous. i got 30 seconds. what does this mean for the
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stock market in your mind? >> well it means interest rates market interest rates have to go a lot higher. i think we're going to see 4.5 on tens. it means that we are -- charles: that spells disaster at least short-term for the stock market. >> yeah and earnings recession. if earnings are not growing then it's hard to justify multiples at current levels. probably s&p somewhere in the vicinity of 3,000. charles: let me ask you before i go. what might change your mind? cpi next week comes in at a certain number that you go back to the drawing board. >> we have to see low core inflation numbers for the next three months. that would do the trick. that's what the fed is banking on. that's why they are at 4.5. charles: that's what we're all banking on. thank you so much really appreciate it. all right folks coming up, my rebuttal to someone about the jobs report on twitter, saying that i would rooting against america these days. you don't want to miss my take and also we'll of course stay on these markets as we continue to drift lower and lower as one of
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the sessions you feel like the only thing stopping us from going down is the closing bell and we'll look at the earnings warnings, the big ones, we've talked about many including on your screen, amd. is this the environment you want to be buying? they say buy low. we'll be right back. good luck. td ameritrade, this is anna. hi anna, this position is all over the place, help! hey professor, subscriptions are down but that's only an estimated 15% of their valuation. do you think the market is overreacting? how'd you know that? the company profile tool, in thinkorswim®. yes, i love you!! please ignore that. td ameritrade. award-winning customer service that has your back.
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charles: so here is a it premise , folks. the labor market and other parts of the economy right now apparently weathering the storm. the fed is trying to put on them , and that's the case it means that maybe a lot of public -traded companies are doing pretty well and maybe they will actually deliver earnings that come in above wall street consensus. with me now, kings view wealth management cio scott martin and chief strategist katherine roone y. scott, i'll start with you. coming into the week the pace of negative earnings warnings was less than the prior three quarters, and everyone is
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looking of course now, one of the general things that i hear from all of the guests is that earnings are too high. they are going to be a disaster. from a contrarian point of view be setting us up for positive surprises? >> definitely, and i think i've heard that for a few quarters running now charles so either it's not going to happen and that could be good or it does happen and stocks get over extended to the downside and that's when folks like you, me, and krv cam in, and buy it and i'll tell you what that's the one thing i have an issue with. a lot of the stuff, great interviews today, dianne was very good, ed yardeni, awesome, but charles a lot of the things we talk about these days are getting factored in aren't they? kind of getting known, and the things that really screw up markets these days, is when stuff comes in from out of the left field, the black swan events a lot of the things we're worried about today are already kind of known to the market so i don't think they have too much farther down to go provided unknown things don't show up. charles: katherine or krv, third quarter gdp from the
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atlanta fed was 0.3 a week ago now it's almost 3% and it just makes you like golly. i know that the fed is trying to destroy the economy but it seems like corporations almost always find a way. a lot of them, a majority of them. >> they absolutely do, and it stops right of the data coming in extraordinarily well, but the flip side to that, of course , is that we have above 8% inflation, and the feds target is two. the risk they're in if the fed weren't to as you mentioned destroy demand, kind of kill the economy, which is really the way to get inflation from 8.5 to 2, the risk to that is that the market doesn't buy the feds capacity to drop inflation, so if we continue, let's highlight one thing. 3.5% is a record low unemployment rate. so we went from 3.7 today number s released 3.5%. we're not going to get inflation of 2% with record low unemployment rates, so the fed
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has way extended the expiration date of its ultra lax accommodative policy. it knows its gotten itself into a corner. it's going to have to increase rates aggressively. i heard your previous guest and i agree. i think we get to at least 5%. the taylor rule puts of the fed funds rate at 775 and i don't think we get that far, but unemployment has to go higher to take the pressure off of wages, and to take the pressure off of inflation. charles: so but having said that then, for a stock investor is there anywhere to hide out, for a while the defensive names are doing well. more recently utilities have gotten smashed, staples are getting hit. is there anywhere on the equity side that you be buying right here? >> if the fed does miraculously hand a soft landing, which is getting inflation down to 2% without producing a recession,
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which, you know, looks kind of possible right now, i tend to think that it's wishful thinking and wishful thinking and hope are not an investment strategy. i prefer to tell my clients, let's just hedge ourselves in case the worst case scenario happens. we get a recession, equities drop another 10% so if we think that's a possibility which the probability is increasing so you want to be on the defensive sectors. they aren't the fun ones, it's not tech consumer discretionary but it is energy, healthcare, utilities, and staples i've been saying this for sometime being winners and i think there's more upside there going into 2023. charles: i'm sorry, scott, you've got some specific ideas. i took some notes and i know that you like amd today on weakness, about 47 firms downgraded it today. i had a position at the open, you like tesla, so you're like these high-fliers and these kind of major days they get hammered like this you want t go and start sifting through the ashes right away. >> you read my notes on me.
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i love days like this certainly on stocks that are just getting tossed. amd is getting absolutely crushed and yeah the miss was bad but worth 12% in the stock? i think that's one of the arguments where a lot of it is in the stock so we buy it today on the close here. tesla has been dropping like a rock, sinking like a stone all week. that company is still firing on all cylinders, pun intended. i think it's great and then krv i should have asked you ahead of time if that was okay to say but let's just go with it >> i love it. >> utilities are still hanging in there, awesome, good, and also, charles, schlumberger, that's a name i gave you about a month ago been really hitting hard lately that's a good area to hedge out that risk that krv talked about the energy side too just in case energy doesn't settle down here. charles: i got a thing, every portfolio has to have exposure to the energy side. for a number of reasons no doubt about that, but you know, it's a dangerous game but that's how you make the big money, when everyone else is selling, and making creating those opportunities.
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krv, katherine, scott, thank you both very much appreciate it all right folks, coming up, we're going to take a look at some other ideas maybe you want to consider buying into the close here. again the marketing in this kind of turmoil throwing out great names with bad names also the fed speakers are still going at it. how much do they want to take this market down? is there a number on the stock market? nancy tengler is with us and i'll ask her, she's next. ♪
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that the fomc, listen, let's face it they have been laying it on pretty thick and hard to ignore that particularly when the market moves in one direction like this. let's bring in nancy tengler and in your note this week, you traced this problem back to two years ago at jackson hole when powell said the fed will move away from forecasting and becoming data-dependent and then of course they missed the inflation bubble and now they are trying to coral this whole thing in, so where is the mistake now? is it being data dependent particularly when some of the data is very rear view mirror stuff? >> yeah, completely, charles at least that's my view and i think the market shares it and that's why there's been so much volatility on every word spoken by any member or anyone near the federal reserve. i think one of the things we have to remember is that back in 2021, they were sort of ignoring the inflation, they were ignoring the inflation mandate and laser focused on jobs, while this federal government was paying supplement all benefits
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to people staying on the couch or out of the workforce however you was in to characterize that and now they are 100% focused on inflation at the expense. the potential expense of the job market, and that's where i think the balance needs to come in. they should have front end loaded. okay they didn't but they need to go at pace and they are going so quickly that the data dependent backward look is not going to show anything, for six to nine months, and so that's why i think people are worried they go too far, or too far and too fast. charles: let me ask you something else is going on today that i haven't seen anybody report this necessarily as stock market news. president biden is saying that we are as close to a nuclear war right now than at any time since the tube an missile crisis. there's all kinds of dark clouds in the air and sometimes this sort of thing again while it's hard to quantify it, does it have an impression on the market? >> i think there's a general
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malaise that everywhere people look, there's not good news, and so when that happens, then at the margin, markets trade on sentiment and until we get something better to trade on , so there's really nothing good going on. it looks like energy prices are going to go up, and that's why i don't think yes, i think we hit peak inflation but i don't think it's going to go down to 2% any time soon. it's more likely to stay in the five to six range for sometime, so you know, you look at that and then you go fill up your tank and you go to the grocery store, and then you listen to the news. there's nothing good, so that's why the markets are so volatile because the algorithms are focused on every headline, which is interesting, because they should have picked up on that one. charles: yeah, and to that point , the only good thing is that most of us are not denver broncos fans, so if that was the case we would be down an extra 3% right now, but golly , let me get back on track here. you still buy in these environments, right? you know what you want to own.
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you aren't a trader. obviously, we can get them at a cheaper price, so what are the things you're looking at? >> yeah, well, i think a couple things. first of all it is important to note that there are still stimulus checks going out so the consumer in california for example, are going to pass about $9.5 billion in inflation relief so the consumer is going to start spending in various regions, or continue to spend, so we are actually adding to names and i can't talk about the actual names today because we're trading on monday, but we're adding to some names in the consumer discretionary space , and at the expense of some of our consumer staple holdings, because we want to be ahead of where we think we're going, not like a race horse, but just kind of a step ahead and we're adding to some of the old economy tech names or the ones that pay dividends in the software space, and then we have continued to keep our commitment to energy and we're sort of shifting some a little away from upstream and a little
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bit toward mid and downstream, so those are some of the things that we're doing to balance out the portfolio and on an asset allocation basis. charles: is another way to say that so the explorers or refiners rather the refiners? >> some of it, yeah. we still have pretty heavy exposure to the upstream names which are very sensitive as you know to the price of oil, but we're shifting now and that's what you have to do. you have to be nimble to the extent that you can be. charles: nancy, i appreciate always, thank you so much we're lucky to have you especially on a day like this. coming up folks my takeaway of someone who was rooting against america, the problem is that if you criticize during when certain people are president or not president, that has nothing to do with it. we have all our heads in the sand and we have to be honest and i'll start later in the show and also a power panel for you, talking about how to navigate this market, nancy just talked about it. we've got two more experts, so get out your pen and pad, because you know what? maybe a year from now you'll be
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charles: you to, this year, buy the dip, remember we all used to chief buy the dip? its been an unmitigated disaster i'm not joking its been the worst year on record to buy the dip. the markets now overwhelmed first thing you think it's going to bounce in the next week you've gotten your crutch. that's all i can tell you but here is the thing. we all know at the same time that first rule of successful investing is to buy low. so maybe you don't want to trade it. there are some opportunities out there let's find them now. heritage capital president paul shatz, along with rob luna. paul i've got your piece here. everyone is busy today, writing these pieces, so buying stampede , bull market or bear trap? what's the answer? >> well, it is. so yes. i think there is a scenario where people are in the embryonic stages, the bottom ing processes as you
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know are kind of muddy and complex and frustrating, but the thrust we saw on monday and tuesday, we had what 90%-plus up volume on monday and tuesday, greater than five-to-one up issues on monday and tuesday. that typically is seen at the beginning of bull legs and i'll pullback and maybe it's not a bull market. i think the likelihood we'll start a bull market this quarter , but in the very short-term, we could also trap the bulls. look, i think a lot of people piled on tuesday, especially feels like mid-day on tuesday, everyone got super-positive and started buying, so we may have that either retest of the september 30 last friday's low, breached by a few percent but all year long, last time i was with you i said it's planting time in october. mid-year, mid-term election cycle, there's so many things pointing to a durable low. the key is you have to get the two-year note to roll over. without that rolling over, we're
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going to continue in this frustrating period. charles: you know, rob, and it's all of this stuff that was mentioned, the seasonality of it , the pessimism of it, the extreme pessimism of it, you know, of your couldn't contrarian, i'm not sure what makes that two year roll over but we know it's extended. you have been sort of, listen, these are just markets right? you've got to deal with this if you're involved in the market for a long time and so the ideas have picked your spots and puck the right stocks, right? >> yeah, but look, everyone says, charles, when you get times like this when there's blood on the street that's when you want to buy but you and i know it's a lot easier to say than actually do. like you said, picking bottoms right now, trying to average down has been just absolutely painful for people and a lot of people are throwing in the towel right now. we could see that in terms of how many people are googling the stock market. we could see that in terms of retail participation, look at the vix what's going on there, but bottoms, you know, as paul is saying, are muddy. they are ugly. these are the things that we need to see and when you're a
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long term investor, unfortunately, guys, this is what buying looks like. no one rings a bell and by the time the news is all good, the moves already going to be done. charles: i'll have to go through all your ideas but i do want to real quick, rob, seems like you have two categories. the uber, airbnb, royal caribbean, wynn, a consumer- related area and then of course the software stuff, crowdstrike, and palo alto networks software which i think everyone agrees corporations aren't going to skimp there. is that the one-two punch you're looking for right now? >> yeah, exactly. those two names cybersecurity, recession-proof. look, what leads us down 90% of the time leads us out. consumer discretionary has been absolutely decimated that's an area if you're a long term investor you have to buy. charles: paul you've got wix and yelp. i took yelp off my screen like 10 years ago. they still have a chance? >> [laughter] they do. look, and each time i come on i try to find stuff just like rob just mentioned try to find stock
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s out of the mainstream. i like to find ones beaten down and starting to roll and out perform. wix and yelp are both former high-fliers people left them at the curb, took them off their screen but look, in the last one , three, five months, they are both outperforming. i think they both have huge upside. they aren't even close to their june lows right now. you've got an activist investor in one, and you've got shocking ly strong demand in advertising in the other. charles: okay. >> so people who did delete them because they were beaten down and former high fliers wake up one day and see they are up 50% in six months. charles: we have to leave it there. i love you both put these specific ideas out there that's why people watch the show. they really want this kind of help. rob, paul, have a great weekend appreciate it. coming up next my takeaway on why the labor force has been in trouble for a long tame and anyone that doesn't think it is not being honest. let's have an honest discussion when we come back.
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so if you have this and want less out-of-pocket costs... and more peace of mind... consider adding this. an aarp medicare supplement plan. take charge of your health care today. just use this...or this to call unitedhealthcare about an aarp medicare supplement plan. charles: earlier today, someone actually tweeted at me suggesting the jobs report was good and i was rooting against america these days soy replied with a tweet showing the civilian labor force participation going back 20 years. that's a disaster. it was coming back but we're down again and nowhere near the february 2020 highs and last month one area i want you to take a look at, hispanic youth unemployment rate hit 3.8% and someone in the administration
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said that's an all-time low. 1,268,000 people left the labor force. hispanic americans, 69,000 fewer have jobs. that's a red flag. if you really want to root for america, much to sound the alarm and not just walk political lines. we are in trouble. some of you also have very strong feelings about it. sean says growing my business and can't find employees. lost a worker to a city government job and big g taking more of our economy. you're 100% right. small businesses cannot compete. i see hiring slowing for sure across north america, friends and associates telling me they've laid off or are about to lay off stress and worry increasing exponentially. that's for everybody. you guys know my man, don luskin saying 1.8 million job openings have gone away since march. 1.8 million opportunities for people to earn a living obliterated thanks to the fed.
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so all of you have opinions on it. we all kind of know what's going on. these government numbers sometimes do make us like get out of here. we don't believe it. what's the methodology? in real life when people lose jobs, in real life when people leave the labor force, like 57,000 did last month, that's not a good jobs report. it may be good for the fed, may be good for the media and politics, it's not good more america. liz claman, over to you. liz: america stays strong no matter what. let's end on that and start on that, charles. we have a fox market alert. just over 59 minutes left to trade for the weekend and looks like one of those fridays where investors just do not want to head into the weekend long stocks. look at dow jones industrials, right now we're down 654, just a moment ago we touched session lows, a loss of about 703 points and s&p down 103 for a loss of 2.7%. the nasdaq really swimming here down 3.6% or 400 points lost in just the blink o


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