theraflu hot beats cold. (vo) while you may not be running an architectural firm, tending hives of honeybees, and mentoring a teenager — your life is just as unique. your raymond james financial advisor gets to know you, your passions, and the way you help others. so you can live your life. that's life well planned. neil: all right, i wish i could stick around but i have to run in a marathon sunday, so to charles payne, to you, my friend charles: watching the market is like running a marathon. thanks a lot, neil. good afternoon, everyone, i'm charles payne, this is "making money." breaking right now, stocks, we came out of the gate much higher but here is the problem. we're trying to move against

bond yields. the bond yields are going higher , and, you know, this is where we are right now. of course bond yields responding to that jobs report that did come in better-than-expected but people are still leaving the jobs market in droves and the unemployment rate actually went higher. what all of this means for your portfolio we have some of the best in the business. meanwhile, should you be chasing the oil trade, how about beaten down chinese stock, michelle schneider is here to share her strategy and one of the nations top wealth advisors is going to tell you how to stay in this game particularly during these rocky times and maybe how one-day you could actually need his services, we'll also handicap a christmas rally, a sand a clause rally, wall street 's version of will farrell and ryan reynolds, you can't miss that and i'll show you the real reason why trickle down economics doesn't work, in my take. all that and so much more on " making money."

>> so, the jobs report came in higher than consensus, and that triggered a knee jerk move by you saw stocks move down, but the fact is, the trend overall, if you take a look at that over the last year is decidedly to the downside, moreover, in my opinion the bigger development, people continue to lead the labor force. in fact, the participation rate went lower, and still, the u 3 unemployment rate went higher 3.7% from 3.5%. now, i know it seems counterintuitive but to most folks, to most folks rather, but the higher this number goes, the higher eventually the stock market will go. that's the way it works under the powell fed. now the other compelling action is the oil patch folks that popped on headlines of possible invasion of iran of saudi arabia , and that keeps hanging around. that won't go away. also more scuttlebutt that china moves away from the zero covid policy. by the way, their key kweb, their key etf down 23% overall

but up 23% since october, so it's making a bunch of head way. we'll talk about going into that and of course, going into the weekend investors are faced with a dilemma. it's the same that talked to charlie brown every time lucy invited him to kick the football do we try in hopes of scoring or do we just remember every time we took a shot and ended up on our back. chief investment strategist jim paulson, and jim, you to, i know that you've been sort of focused on the fact that listen, we know bigger rallies have fizzled but you've made the point that there has been some resolve in this market that it's holding up above those lows and for you that means a lot, right? >> i think it does. from january to june, charles, the thing just kept falling and falling and falling and it feels like it hasn't stopped, but the reality is its really been flat now for five months above those june lows, and you've got to think about what happened over this timeframe.

the fed funds rate went from 1% to 4% in four supr axe 75 basis point hikes the bond yield on the 10-year probably went from 3.25 to like 4.1%, and we had a lot of bad inflation reports that were scary, we had a lot of tough love talk coming from the fed we had elevated recession fears coming from the corporate community and yet here we are five months later and the stock market is still at the same level, it stopped going down, and i think that does say that its been battered by the worst that maybe this thing has to throw at it, and it is starting to form a base. the other thing i note too, charles, is that the leadership off these september lows has been very different, even though we're close to the overall lows for the year, it's being led by small cap stocks, by cyclical sectors, low quality investments , and that says it's a little different leadership as well. charles: jim, you know, we all

remember milton friedman saying inflation is always everywhere a monetary phenomenon and yet, you know, i don't recall this wednesday, anyone really asking jay powell about the free fall and money supply but i know that's part of your overall bullish case, isn't it? >> you bet. i don't understand why the fed isn't paying more attention to that. you know, the money supply peaked out at about a 27% annualized pace, february of 2021, charles and is now down to like 3% or 4%. in real terms its come all the way down to minus 6% when you take inflation out. that's one of the lowest real growth rates over any year period in post-war history, and typically, money supply leads inflation, and economic growth by about a year on average, or more, and i think that what's ahead for us is much weaker nominal and real economic growth if the fed were to stop now. the good news for markets, i

think, is that there's already enough force in there to bring inflation down and i think we're going to start to see that in the headline numbers here in next new months and that would really give a pause to the fed overall, and the other thing is liquidity i think, real liquidity starts to improve finally after about a year and a half of chronically getting worse, because inflation comes down, real liquidity growth is going to start to improve. charles: well you know what? you made the case, and i'm telling you, watching what you're saying and it's happening it just doesn't feel like it because of all of the headlines and all of the volatility but we are hanging in there and every word that you say too as well, jim, have a great weekend my friend, we'll talk again soon. >> you too, charles thanks. charles: so, you know, i've heard surerlaives all morning long, but it's not about 400,000 jobs from a year ago, 500,000 jobs from the february peak, and overall growth is slowing but i

think there's some other concerns too i want to bring in markets co-head of global economics, michelle gerard. michelle, i know you're smiling as soon as the number came out because i know you like this number. tell us why. >> [laughter] i mean, you know, i don't want to be rooting against people getting jobs, that's for sure, and i have to say, doesn't matter really what i think. i think what everyone hears about is what does the federal reserve think about this. charles: right. >> what does jay powell think about this number, and there, you know, it's tough, because like me, of course, the fed wants to see a healthy labor market, but of course, they've done a lot of work to try to take some of the steam out, to try to slow things down in order to get inflation back in check, and despite the aggressiveness of rate hikes, they just aren't really seeing much weakness in the labor market yet. the numbers still suggest more

loss, healthy level of labor demand, and so i think that it probably keeps, they have been signaling that there's going to be more to do and i think that this sort of reinforces that message. charles: what about though, you know, to just piggyback on what you're saying and think about this for a moment. so a lot of folks have locked in very low mortgage rates already. i mean, the spike in mortgages i think they are going to hurt these folks who want the american dream have to put it on pause for a long time. you talk about a lot of economists talk about all of the excess savings out there. for the most part the lions share was saved actually saved by wealthy folks and they aren't going to bend and now you talk about how much work the fed has done to lower, to change the jobs market. how much of this maybe at the end we're going to find out this has to happen organically, over a period of time. >> well, i think you're right. i mean, i do think it will take time.

there is a lot, the economy has a lot going for it. the consumer has a lot going for it, and you know, you talked about the fact mortgage rates were low, people are locked in, debt service levels are very low balance sheets are very healthy, and all of this , i think, is contributing to continued resilience in the consumer sector and consumer spending, and in the face of much higher interest rates than i think people expected, but i do think it will bring, i think it will take its toll. we do think the economy is going to go, moving to a recession and i do think it could be, i think it will be shallow, but i do think it could end up lingering longer than people like, so i do think organically, we will, well organically, but with the help of the fed raising interest rates 500 basis points, but i do think the economy will slow and, you know, but it could just take what we're seeing is

it's taking a lot longer and certainly taking a lot longer to bring inflation down than we hoped. charles: i've got less than a minute to go. you and i have talked about this but it's still mind boggling to me, participation. now, we know some of this maybe aging out of the population, some of it has been a hiccup but there seems to be something wrong, something fundamentally wrong within this country where people aren't going back to work i don't even know how they could afford not to but have you figured this one out yet, michelle? >> we talked about all those reasons why there's maybe not the urgency for work, a lot of people, we talked about those epiphany quitters, people who sort of have their priorit ies after being home during the pandemic and are not rushing back to work, and again, balance sheets are okay, they had some savings. they've been able to stay out and do something different whether that's safeguarding their own company, whatever it is, that that has been enabled

by stronger household financial positions. i think that you know, again, it's taking longer for the realize think pressure on individuals to go back to work, you know, because we're still seeing benefit of the tailwind, if you will, of all of the support that households, you know, garnered during the pandemic. charles: michelle, thank you so much. always appreciate the conversation. >> thank you have a good weekend. charles: you too, thanks. one thing the market could also have been reacting to when we had the early spurt, there were comments from boston's fed president susan collins, take a listen. >> it's time to shift focus from how rapidly to raise rates or the pace to how high. charles: i want to bring in quadratic capital portfolio manager nancy davis. so nancy, would the market be okay with let's say the notion of a higher terminal rate but a much slower pace? >> yeah, i think the markets really not okay with what the fed is doing right now.

it's also a global market, and so many other central banks around the world whether it's rb a, the bank of england, bank of canada, they are moving less aggressive so the fed is sort of standing on their own with being so hawkish still with their monetary policy. charles: well during wednesday, that question was sort of broach ed, if you will, and jay powell seemed to say, you know, listen. we know the world usually hitches their wagon to us but this time we're going it alone and it's not like he's going to be somewhat defiant but when you hear the boston fed president saying or suggesting at least she's feeling this way, i don't think it's a mistake these days when they come out i think it's pretty calculated for them to start sending this message as opposed to the so-called fed whisperer, right, who might be getting it wrong these days, so just what i'm saying is that if it seems like the fed will say okay, the terminal rate is 5.5, some didn't think it be two weeks ago but we may start to

step down. we may start going 50 basis points and 25 basis points, would that be a better dynamic for markets in general? >> you know, i think markets really need a break, monetary policy has a lag and i think the fed continues to do the same thing over and over again. it's not working. it is killing future inflation expectations, but in main street , day-to-day, workers, people, real live, inflations at 40 year highs and i think they really need to pivot. i think your comment earlier about the money supply is really spot-on. they should be doing more, in my opinion, with their balance sheet and less on just hiking policy rates, because that doesn't fix some of the other supply side issues or the labor market shortage that we have really not just in the u.s. but around the entire world. charles: i want you to talk about your etf and how its help ed in this sort of market which is a crazy market. it's a very unique market in

many ways. >> well, the etf that's a quadratic interest rate volatility and inflation hedge etf, it's long rate volatility, interest rate, and that has been something that i think a lot of investors are looking for in this environment with quantitative tightening. if you think about the fed buying bonds was very volatile, it's reasonable to think quantitative tightening will make volatility increase, and surprisingly, even though inflation is surging in our day-to-day realized lives, future inflation expectations are actually really well- contained, all breakeven curves, the five-year, the yield curve is the most negative its been in the history going back to the 80s so it's really unprecedented time with that divergence between realized inflation, and future inflation expectations being so low. charles: wow. it is such a crazy time, that's

for sure. nancy thank you we appreciate you thank you. >> thank you. charles: folks i'm going to hear from you, comments, always you know love interacting with you so we have a question about the show, or anything, tweet me at @cvpayne. i asked recently about the lay off sweeping this country and will congress come next? dave says charles we have a better chance than expecting layoffs in congress, nonetheless , a great idea. coming up, folks, china on a terror. the chinese stocks, rather, my next guest is michelle schneider here with some of her ideas, right after this. ♪ get down on it ♪

i'd like to thank our sponsor liberty mutual. they customize your car insurance, so you only pay for what you need. contestants ready? go! only pay for what you need. jingle: liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ have yourself a merry little christmas ♪ ♪ let your heart be light ♪ ♪ from now on ♪ ♪ our trouble will be out of sight ♪ t-mobile won't raise the price of your talk, text and data. plus, families get over $225 dollars in benefits every month. ♪

at adp, we understand business today looks nothing like it did yesterday. while it's more unpredictable, its possibilities are endless. from paying your people from anywhere to supporting your talent everywhere, we use data driven insights to design hr solutions and services to help businesses of all size work smarter today. so, they can have more success tomorrow. ♪ one thing leads to another ♪

charles: so earlier this week, there were reports of an eminent invasion of saudi arabia and of course, that put that country and the united states on high alert from iran. they denied the rumor but it's persisting i heard it a lot overnight, saw it on social media and that helped spark crude oil higher. of course the big leg in today's move comes also from scuttlebutt persistent rumors that china is going to drop the zero covid policy in the first quarter of next year. of course these are significant moves, and they have the best ramifications. want to bring in market gauge managing director michelle

schneider. michelle let's start with this oil, right? because there's a record amount of calls that have been bought and i've been bullish but i'm also a contrarian. when i see that many people on the bandwagon, you don't jump off but it kind of worries me. how are you playing this? >> i'm kind of on your page, there, charles because right now , we rallied into major resistance if we just look at the pricing of crude and $95 there's a tremendous amount of resistance right there up to about 100. that doesn't mean it couldn't go higher, but you know, what's so interesting to me is that all the ramifications of all of this going on with the oil market as we're going into a period where the feds trying to keep inflation under control, and the dollar instead of reacting to the upside like everybody thought, is going down , so really, to me, the biggest factor of the oil is what's going to happen to everything else in terms of the inflation play and especially if we go into any kind of geopolitics with iran and things escalate there. charles: yeah, so, on china, you

know, there's a lot of ways to play china. i like looking at the big tech etf. its been screaming higher, but making a big move but we know its been wiped out. president xi now focused on security, not economics, and these companies have paid the price. are they attractive enough though from a risk reward point right now? >> well some of them might be. what's so interesting is part of what china's been doing sort of quietly over the last two years is going into a service economy, and as they have an aging population, and more of a middle class, a lot of that population has shifted in their tastes, and so we've been looking at things like one world which is not technically a chinese company but it does operate in china, and also, i still have to be interested in the solar energy in china, and j. d..com but i'd like to give it a little more time because of obviously the whole overall environment

right now, but yeah, china, when we talked in the spring we thought it was a great investment then covid turned out to be a problem and if that really does reverse then in 200e china goes up that could happen again. charles: you've got to keep it on your watch list at the very least. speaking of which i know you always watch the transportation index as a gauge in the economy. i think i saw a tweet or something from you. you aren't happy with the way that came out right now. what's the message from what's happening with transpos? >> well basically, the message is that even though the airlines seem to be doing very well relatively, we have a situation where demand obviously is slowing, and that could be a lot of reasons. one could be supply chain coming back as an issue, i've been sort of hearing. so with iyt, it did not clear the moving average while the russels did, and the retail sector did, so that tells me that the strain of everything that we've been hearing about is starting to hit home there, and

even though we held major support at 195 on our last trip south, if that breaks i be really really concerned about the overall market. charles: michelle i've got 30 seconds. what do you like right here? >> i'm so about the metals, charles. i know that i said this over and over and over again, but i think that everything is unraveling. chaos cohen sue here as the fed seems to not really have control , not to mention sovereign spending has to go up to try to protect their econom ies . these are all super- inflationary and the metal s as hard assets are starting to perk up. charles: well we've got them on the screen here and they are perking up pretty good right now michelle great seeing you thank you very much. >> thank you. charles: coming up, one of america's top wealth advisors david kudla is here sharing what he's telling his clients at 2:40 but first mass layoffs at twitter but they aren't the only one by far, challenger is going to be here to talk about the

realtime job situation, this is what you need to understand. he's next. at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will help you create a comprehensive wealth plan for your full financial picture. with the right balance of risk and reward. so you can enjoy more of...this. this is the planning effect. they're looking for you. who? who's looking? there is no time. they will kill you....but my daughter. mama.

vo: it's a new day. because covid vaccines just got a big update. just in time for everyone who works. with other people. just in time for... ...more togetherness. just in time to say “oh, you bet we'll be there!” because the updated vaccines can now protect against both the original covid virus and omicron. and that's a moment... we've all been waiting for.

it's walmart's black friday deals for days. every monday, huge deals will go live. join walmart+ and you can shop online 7 hours early! so the only question is... is it monday yet? that's walmart's black friday deals for days. what should the future deliver? (music) progress... (music) ...innovation... (music) ...discovery? or simply stability... ...security... ...protection? you shouldn't have to choose. (music) gold. your strategic advantage. (music) visit goldhub.com.

your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones

charles: all right, well, the elon musk era at twitter is, well, it's starting. it's in full swing folks and the workforce and the social media giant bracing, said to be half of them are laid off now of course twitter is not the only company to announce massive layoffs and this week alone and maybe it's a preview of things to come joining me, senior vice president andy challenger. andy, i want to just start with your most recent report the layoffs in october hit the highest number since february 2021. 13% month-over-month, 48% year-over-year. what's driving this? >> yeah, we are seeing a slow up-tick in layoffs, we've come out of a period of the lowest level of layoffs than we've seen in the u.s. in kind of the modern era, as the economy starts to cool down, it's

starting to finally hit the labor market and we have seen now for five straight months in the number of layoffs companies are announcing across a couple different sectors. charles: now in that report i think technology was second or third-largest, but all the news i'm hearing seems to be coming from that tech area, twitter, lyft, so many others. is it just, is this because they were simply overhiring for the pandemic? is there something more problematic going on? >> yeah, over the last month, tech is the sector that we've seen the most cuts announced and it's an area of the economy that hired at a really rapid pace the last two years, and so it's not surprising in some ways that we see tech starting to be the first area where we see job cuts as the economy slows down. it's clear that at least some tech organizations have gotten out ahead of their skiis and we've seen other tech companies like apple and amazon announcing that they're pulling back on hiring. they aren't going to be hiring

at the same pace they've had the last two years. charles: that was the other headline from your report right that september saw hiring intentions fall to their lowest level since 2011. i feel like that's something of a shocker, so just sort of handicap when you see these two combinations of things, where we might see the jobs numbers, the official bureau of labor statistic job numbers go in the next several months. >> yeah, i mean, slowdown in the labor market. we would have thought at this point with how far the economy is slowed down the labor market would have already been hit harder. its been really resilient. we saw a fairly strong labor report today, companies are still adding. we didn't see the unemployment rate tick down yet, and inevitably as the economy continues to cool, it's going to hit the labor market and we'll start to see layoffs increase across-the-board. charles: andy thank you very much appreciate it. joining me now, folks, iwf policy director hadle y heats manning, so in this bls report,

99.8 million working age folks not in the labor force. 59% of them are women. how do you explain that? >> yeah, it's another gender gap, charles, and not one that i'm especially concerned about because the presumption with labor force participation in general is always that more is better, but i question that. i question that particularly when it comes to women with children in the home. since covid hit we've seen a lot of problems facing the next generation of young children, whether it's the mental health crisis for our youth, or their physical health crisis, i mean, we should be talking about the pediatric healthcare crisis going on right now because of viral infection, but there is so many things our kids are facing in terms of learning loss that many moms i believe are stepping back from the workforce in order to lean in more at home and that's not necessarily a bad thing that's their choice and many ways it's going to be good for us. charles: right. it's interesting you mentioned this because there's another kind of philosophical battle a couple of weeks ago bari weiss

posted a tweet about hiring a stellar research er. the post was reported by a number of people for violating hate speech. listen, i know there's some interesting twisted logic out there about these sort of things what do you make of that because i always feel like women are under this additional pressure of being a good mom, a good wife , a good citizen that men necessarily don't face. >> yeah, i think there's a lot of social pressure on women to conform to particular political perspectives, but in my experience, when i've stepped up with maybe what's a minority viewpoint in my communities, every time i've had other women come to me and say thank you for saying that, that's what i was thinking but i was not really sure if i had the courage to say it and there's power in numbers so i encourage people regardless of what kind of environment you're in, just to speak the truth, say your real opinion. i think this is ridiculous about the hate speech reporting on bar i weiss's tweet, obviously nothing she said in the tweet was hate speech and people were just looking at her and saying she's problematic because she

raises questions about wokism and therefore, they hate her. it's not about her speech. it's about hatred for her, and what she stands for , and they are going to go after anyway they can and sadly that's the political environment that we're in, but i just encourage people to be their authentic selves and take the arrows that come but you'll always have other people standing with you. charles: speaking of the political environment, how do you explain these polls? just in the last couple of weeks , a wild surge, they were completely in the corner for democrats and they've gone completely the other way to republicans, just ahead of next weeks mid-terms. >> yeah, you know, i think in many ways this will be the first time that women and moms will have the chance to go to the ballot box to express the deeply -held concerns that we've had about the covid response for the past couple of years. we had an election in fall of 2020 but this is a chance to voice our opinion on the extended school closures and the extended mask mandates so i think that issue has found a recent are you surge ensemble in terms of what's on women's minds

but certainly two months ago a hot topic was abortion. now people continue to go to the grocery store and to the gas pump and to feel the pain of record high inflation and to sit down at our kitchen tables and yet again, it's those issues that are on the top of voter's minds particularly women, women with young children in the home, so that's my very, you know, quarterback arm chair quarterback analysis of it charles but i think deep down it's going to come down to what is this election about? charles: i've got to tell you i love the fact this is about parents. parents taking control. they have an insight into what their kids are learning, how they were learning and i don't think a lot of people knew. they sort of looked over the kids shoulders, looked at those laptops paid attention to those zoom classes and other things, and you know what? i love this epiphany. i love it. its got to be driven by pans and it is. hadley, thank you so much appreciate you. >> thank you. charles: coming up, could the buybacks, the end of this blackout period could this actually be the spark that gives us a santa claus rally? we have two of the best to help break it down and also, we'll

take a look at how you should be positioning with this guys one of the top wealth managers out there, so you want to listen to him, david kudla is next. ♪ ♪

i'm gonna earn 3% on dining including takeout with chase freedom unlimited. that's a lot of cash back. are you gonna stop me? uh-oh... i'm almost there... too late! boom! earn big time with chase freedom unlimited with no annual fee. how do you cashback? chase. make more of what's yours.

among my patients, i often see them have teeth sensitivity as well as gum issues. does it worry me? absolutely. sensodyne sensitivity & gum gives us the dual action effect that really takes care of both our teeth sensitivity as well as our gum issues. there's no question it's something that i would recommend. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here!

what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq >> the colleagues and i are strongly committed to this project, and we will keep at it until the job is done. we need to act now, strongly, as we have been doing and we need to keep at it until the job is done. charles: so, that was jay powell invoking a mantra of his "american idol" paul volcker, with the phrase, "keeping at it" which by the way is also the title of paul volcker's biography. while he did not use it verbatim on wednesday, the fed chair made it clear he was going full

volcker and keeping at it. we understand that the mistakes obviously that the federal reserve has made in the past and 80s we always talk about that, but there are differences, this time around and maybe at some point powell & company will have to slow down and pause, i want to bring in main stay capital management ceo chief investment strategist david kudla. and david, the u.s. is the most aggressive central bank out there. the rest are starting to hint at they are going to slowdown, maybe pause the bank of england for instance. should powell be listening to what they are trying to do? >> yeah, we've had, you know, the united nations, even called for central banks to lighten up on the interest rate increases, because of fear of a global recession. we have countries that have dollar denominated debt as the dollar keeps getting stronger, it creates problems for them, but the fed has a dual mandate that doesn't, is not impacted by either of those ,

and we know as you showed in that clip what we heard this week. they made it very clear they are going to continue to raise rates until they bring inflation down towards their target of 2% and i don't think they are going to listen to the rest of the world. i think they are going to stay on that mission. charles: but it is interesting though, because part of achiev ing that mission is to go against one of those mandates, unless, you know, five, 6% be considered full employment. >> yeah, the issue they have is that, we know, we don't want to see this for americans, see americans lose jobs or having trouble getting jobs but that's what they are working on. that was the issue in the jobs number this morning, payrolls came in well-above estimates, employment rose that had to do with participation rate, so we saw the market end up selling off once again, and i think that they will continue on their path charles. charles: okay, i think they will too but i think it's like being

in the middle of something and saying questioning it because i think there's going to be a post mortem on this and eventually they will rethink how they do these things in the next crisis. let me ask you about the market in general because we've seen the market rally without zero interest rates or 2% inflation, you know, are those days gone forever? do we need the fed to be fully accommodative for this market to go higher? >> yeah, you know, we had an unprecedented period in several decades, a whole decade of zero rates with 2% inflation or less than 2% inflation that we became accustomed to, but in the 80s, 90s, early 2000s, we had bull markets with high interest rates, moderate rates of inflation, we know the market , markets can expand with rates that reflect a growth in the economy, and yeah, i think that when there is more certainty on the rate structure, stable rates, right now we just

don't know how high the fed will go, but when rates come down, stabilize, certainly the market can continue or can rally if we don't have to be at zero rates and 2% inflation for markets to rally. charles: i read this week where bank of america at least their customers loading up on bonds. they aren't the only one by the way, but i also read where you were short bonds. is that where you are right now when it comes to bonds? >> yeah, we've been short bonds since the beginning of the year. it's a trade that's worked out very well for us, and when we look ink across yield curve now, it depends how you want to play it. you could look at six-month t- bills right now, hold those to maturity, clip a coupon and do very well. the two-year note, though just hit another record high in yield for this cycle, so yields are continuing to climb on certain parts of the curve, and with the fed, we know with fed

stating his mission very clearly on wednesday, that we have more rate hikes to come, even saying that there won't be a pause any time soon. we know higher rates are coming and certain parts of the curve are affected by that. we short those parts of the curves. other parts of the curve start to look attractive, especially if we expect a recession sometime next year, where rates will come down. charles: david i have a minute to go but i have to ask. i guess i was reading in forbes the other day and i saw where you're ranked number 94 in wets advisers in the nation, number two in your state. i suspect their approach probably more conservative than most folks out there, but some are watching and saying golly, i want to get to that level of wealth. what's the strategy that you share with people? >> well, you know, the most important thing about investing is to have a long term discipline plan and stick to that plan, and that's difficult in a year like 2022, so what we

add to that is tactical asset allocation. we're not just a buy and hold investor. that's why we're shorting bonds. that's why we're utilizing liquid alternatives that have very positive returns this year, manage futures, long-short strategies, but it's all about not letting emotion rule the day , sticking to a plan, not selling at a bottom, not selling at a low, and utilizing a strategy that worked well in the environment you're in. that's why we like tactical asset allocation as a strategy. charles: it's good stuff obviously it served you and your clients very well for a long time. thank you very much, david. >> thank you, charles. charles: folks coming up my takeaway on the trickle down myth, it doesn't work, but not for the reasons politicians say, but first, we could see a record year in buybacks, and maybe that leads us to a santa claus rally. i have two of the best to help break it down and how you can participate. we'll be right back.

♪ ain't no mountain high enough, ain't no mountain low enough ♪ your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire what if there was a community of like minded people ready to support you when you need it most? christian health care ministries is an organization with over 40 years of trusted care who understands the importance of family. a group that sees you for who you are

regardless of your health history. offering values-based affordable health care cost solutions for people just like you and me. learn more today at your chm.org about healthcare that puts you in control. ♪ have yourself a merry little christmas ♪ ♪ let your heart be light ♪ ♪ from now on ♪ ♪ our trouble will be out of sight ♪ t-mobile won't raise the price of your talk, text and data. plus, families get over $225 dollars in benefits every month. ♪

as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network. with no line activation fees or term contracts. saving you up to $500 a year. and it's only available to comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities. ™ millions have made the switch from the big three to the best kept secret in wireless: xfinity mobile. that means millions are saving hundreds a year

with the fastest mobile service. and now, introducing, the best price for two lines of unlimited. just $30 per line. there are millions of happy campers out there. and this is the perfect time to join them... save hundreds a year over t-mobile, verizon, and at&t with xfinity mobile, and for a limited time get $500 off any new eligible samsung device. charles: all right, so i know we haven't had thanksgiving yet but

the country beginning to start focusing on the christmas season , which officially kicks off with the new movie many expect to be instant classic. it's a musical version of charles dickens story who has taken on a musical journey so with that in mind, can investors still expect a santa claus rally so here is the deal, folks. the movie will star will farrell and ryan reynolds, so i want to bring to you their wall street d obblegangers. wets management cio, i tried to say it with a straight face, scott martin and mahoney asset management, president ken mahoney. you have to think of which one it is. scott let me start with you. i have to start with buybacks, because there's going to be billions of dollars pumped into this market every single day. these companies trying to get ahead of next year when the big tax comes in on buybacks will that help? could that spark some sort of a

santa claus rally? >> it could start it charles. if you look at the buyback history so far this year a lot of it is just concentrated to a select few companies from the big cap tech names we all know well the amazon, facebook and googles but it does start to kind of hasten that buying opportunity that you typically see towards the end of the year because investors get confident if the company executives get confident but the point you made is really well-said. this is to get ahead most likely at least this rush we're going to see towards year-end ahead of the excise tax coming down, as a result of the inflation reduction act, so companies are probably doing a little bit more than they would normally do in this scenario but it still shows there's confidence in their business going forward so it's a good reason to chase the stocks for a bit. charles: what do you think, ken? >> so i think the catalyst for year-end be buybacks and i think we are, i use the l word, landslide victory next tuesday, i think the markets really going to like that. markets like gridlock, they don't like this brainless spending we've seen and big tax hikes and all

these regulation. they just need a big power vacuum here too, right, and napolitano will nancy pelosi will no longer be speaker of the house, and a new formation come january and the checks and balances of washington, i think that's where the markets going to find the catalyst to tell you the truth. charles: you jumped to my follow-up question number four but i was going to bring that up here is another thing, obviously , a lot of people think that jay powell you know is we get the cpi report that's the next big number out there. what are these numbers, scott, if one of these numbers comes in less-than-expected this consensus gain by the way is ridiculous, right? something, you can say oh, it's going to be up two pennies and it's up three pennies, and the superlatives are just nuts anyway, i digress. jay powell, if he can at any point signal okay, i'll make a reassessment like we heard from the fed boston president today.

how much would that send this market up? >> that be great. if we can count on it after this weeks performance i don't know, man. i hate to tell you, jay powell needs to really be hit over the head with a lot of these numbers. i don't think one number will do it that's the sad thing we've kind of learned so it definitely gets the market off to the right start of believing a couple more pieces like that. there's two cpi numbers in front of the next fed meeting so maybe two numbers will work but i think powell is serious about this jaw boning brigade he's on, and so i think you'll have to wait a couple months until we hear powell at least come back to maybe of the more okay now we'll wait and see and let the economy breathe. charles: let's talk about the mega cap names because they are front and center all year long. right now apple believe it or not has a higher market cap than meta, amazon and google combined but here is the thing in the past week, retail investors sold 130 million of meta, sold 122 million of amazon , they sold $112 million worth of apple and bought 137 million of google.

so ken, i mean, of these names are any of them attractive to you? >> so my favorite long is apple and by the way, you look at last week, we have the kind of survivor, the tv show, someone will go home. one-day it was meta going only, other day it was amazon going home, google and microsoft and the only one standing was apple but its been trade pretty poorly the last week or so. again we like meta short intra- rally, apple is definitely longer term, but the sea change, on the other side though, the tax loss harvesting which may offset some of the buying so again if you go in with apple long, again, we're talking about tiptoeing in. charles: scott what are you doing as we head into the weekend? >> yeah, not chasing tech here just yet, charles but looking at stuff in the energy space, really just maybe at the end of the year-end of the month and we talked about these before. pioneer pxd is just an awesome hold, just kind of the toll booth of the energy sector pushing energy and gas through

the pipeline, so mlp and pxd are great places to play energy, away from some of the integrated and big names you hear about all the time and have higher dividends by the way than some of the names and just about the same pe valuations in the single-digits. charles: guys thanks so much scott and ken or will and ryan we'll figure out whose who. have a great weekend. up next my takeaway on the real reason trickle down economics doesn't work. we'll be right back. ♪ this... is the planning effect. this is how it feels to know you have a wealth plan that covers everything that's important to you. this is what it's like to have a dedicated fidelity advisor looking at your full financial picture.

making sure you have the right balance of risk and reward. and helping you plan for future generations. this is "the planning effect" from fidelity.

everyone remembers the moment they heard, “you have cancer.” how their world stopped... ...and when they found a way to face it. for some,... ...this is where their keytruda story begins. keytruda—a breakthrough immunotherapy that may treat certain cancers. one of those cancers is advanced melanoma, which is a kind of skin cancer where keytruda may be used when your melanoma has spread or cannot be removed by surgery. keytruda helps your immune system fight cancer... ...but can also cause your immune system to attack healthy parts of your body. this can happen during or after treatment and may be severe and lead to death. see your doctor right away if you have cough, shortness of breath, chest pain, diarrhea, severe stomach pain or tenderness, severe nausea or vomiting, headache, light sensitivity, eye problems, irregular heartbeat, extreme tiredness, constipation, dizziness or fainting,

changes in appetite, thirst, or urine, confusion or memory problems, muscle pain or weakness, fever, rash, itching, or flushing. these are not all the possible side effects. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions, including immune system problems, or if you've had an organ transplant, had or plan to have a stem cell transplant, or have had radiation to your chest area or a nervous system condition. today, keytruda is fda-approved to treat 16 types of advanced cancer, and is being studied in hundreds of clinical trials exploring ways to treat even more types of cancer. it's tru. keytruda from merck. see the different types of cancer keytruda is approved to treat at keytruda.com, and ask your doctor if keytruda can be part of your story.

lelele the t t tckle dn n n th. n n n hear p p piticia trtrtrkle do e e enomicscscs doe work... c c crse ththth're sugg ththth pro gh popopotiesbram cog g g wer r r ratefor businenenees in y incococo kekekedoes n n n grow w w eonom. i i i a a aee. trickl a a as descscscbed by popopoticiandododo not w w wk. neralllllldon'like capitititism. it d d dsn't work k k r maininit cause t dododon't t t ist. our ecisisis triririle thmasseseses g g g moneyeyey ano go o ondndpend i i i vernmememe and bs s s ffersssgup anananthe grgrgrtest exaxaxales recececely, , , .3 triririion. thisex trararaonreenoney

gogoowowl tototomericacacan 20202020022. more tlflflf w w wntntnt r r rht awayayaynd howowowreside bidenet tht gdgdgdp nununuer aututut $ 're nononosure h h hheconomymymy is h h hging o itononon bfor r r ch longe all l l at spepepeincausing g gd ititit for busususesseand d d cd tatatareceip fororor thehehe gor the e e rket k k kws thimoney yl ru ititit aacknowowowdgmentt the freeeeeeoney spipipit will d d . the trtrtrklhas d d d d it's's'so crcrcrsohat's whwhwhee arhe c c cntry a a a t t t oking g g p p p fect. z amanyoye knknkn neil handndnd me e e dove lookokokhat i'i'i'm handndndg g. you n n n ank k k later... liressurururis on.n.n. ink trtrtrkle do worksksks.t't i'veveve watchhis veveveloselylt in