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tv   Making Money With Charles Payne  FOX Business  November 23, 2022 2:00pm-3:00pm EST

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>> we're minutes away from the release of the fed minutes. we're watching stocks edge a little higher on hopes of smaller rate hikes to come. we'll see what the fed tells us. the dow is up 27 points right now. i will send it over to charles payne who takes it next. happy thanksgiving, charles. charles: happy thanks giving, jackie.
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i'm charles payne. this is "making money" right now. a quiet but meaningful session ahead of thanksgiving, the market on edge as we near i'm talk a major potential breakout point. everyone making adjustments to their economic assumptions and portfolios. you need to stay with us to find out moves you should be considering at this very moment. i have some of the best on the street throughout the entire hour. plus i have judy shelton, we'll talk about congress, can they actually restore the integrity of the dollar. you demanded it, here is here, high priest of bitcoin, max and ftx fiasco. a development in el salvador that could change everything. it is almost turkey day. i want to hear from you your favorite side dish. tweet me @cvpayne. some of the crazy ones i didn't know existed. all that and so much more on "making money."
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♪. charles: so a lot of folks taking off ahead of the extended weekend but a lot going on. we have the fed minutes coming out a second ago. there is a bevy of economic data this morning. on the good side durable goods came in much better than expected especially business investments, really something of a surprise. new home sales, this continues to boggle the mind. i will ask danielle dimartino booth about that. consumer sentiment trending higher although there is hair on this number too. what should we be worried about? flash pmi, u.s. manufacturing, service economy starting to really break down. initial jobless claims, i hate to tell you, folks, the federal reserve wants fewer people in this country to be employed. looks like that is beginning to happen. having said that as an investor i always want business invests to go through the roof. i think that is a good sign. we'll see what happens there. you can also see while we have these invests doing pretty well this is shipping and new orders, the month before were down so
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they kind of negate one another. still wall street thinks that might be too much for the fed. wall street is following all of this. nothing matters more than i mentioned a moment ago, as i mentioned, the jobs picture starting to trend higher. initial jobless claims were coming in lower and lower every week? that is not happening anymore. 240,000. the street was looking for 225,000. that is worse than expected. meanwhile the last three months have seen major, major rotation. you've seen this perhaps in your own portfolio. some of the stocks you left for dead, the old economy stocks doing pretty well. the older hot names are not doing as well. so energying of course had a grt year. materials, financials, industrials. these are the kind of things you can touch and feel, right? so the question for you, should you making adjustments in your portfolio that reflect this? i want to bring in bulltick
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chief strategist kathryn rooney vera, advisor group chief market strategist phil blancato. phil, you're always pretty active making these changes which i love. i have here a equity style box. i want you to work with me on one hand we have large, medium small cap stocks, value and growth, where are you focusedright now. >> upper left corner. majority of my equities value, traditional things you can touch and feel. willing to go down to mid-caps to own regional banks and a hint into growth. so you want to be in the upper left quadrant, maybe halfway through if you want more risk on, that is getting dividend things we need right now, consumer spending money, leisure, tourism, manufacturing, energy, financials, a leadership change. you get your dividend, you're in value sector. that is slowing economy. that is how you win right now. charles: what on the growth side? nothing on growth? >> i have a very small blend of
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growth so i'm not into pure growth stocks. i'm in apple, microsoft, lesser degree of crowdstrike in there as well but not willing to bet. when rates push higher those stocks get punished. charles: large cap growth but mostly value where you're focused. >> yeah. charles: krv, you're conscious of this kind of thing, how are you spreading risk in the equity market? >> there is a time and place for everything, charles, and this year was the stagflation trade as you and i discussed coming into the year defensives, value, energy, utilities, staples, health care and those are the sectors that typically outperform not just in stagflation but in recession. that is as i started. a time and place for everything. so 2023 i think we get that point where we pile into it as phil called it, knows names, cyclicals, interest rate sensitive sectors that have been demolished. charles: right. >> talking about technology, consumer discretionary. when do we get there? when we're in recession,
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unemployment at 5% around the fed starts cutting which i think comes at end of next year. charles: oh, boy. we start off here, safe comfortable, but sounds like we end up back there. let me go back to you, phil, with respect to the all of the things going on, we're going through the fomc minutes. edward lawrence will join us in a moment. santa claus rally looking past that to 2023, what is out there that really worries you the most? i feel like we know the known knowns. i don't feel anything we don't know, just nuance we don't know. >> really important ones. value to growth when the fed stops hiking. be late, not early. one thing i want to be clear, if the consumer runs out of money before fed stops hiking we'll be in a very deep recession. consumers hold on to september of next year. we have to get ship righted by september of next year otherwise
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everything changes. for now i'm comfortable, long equities, aggressive on stocks. i'm enjoying the rally. i'm circling december. when consumers run out of excess savings. that is time of year we have to be careful to keep a close on it next year. charles: kathryn, estimates on the cme pointing fed making a mistake sooner than later. some are through half the year cutting rates. you don't think that, that we'll end the year at 5% terminal rate? >> fed's mistake occurred more than a year ago so future mistakes have to correct the past mistake which is keeping monetary policy so accommodative, way past the expiration date. let's remember that the fed in march of this year was still buying bonds. now they're finally rolling off the balance sheet taking rates higher to combat inflation. once, it is all about the labor market. once we get the unemployment
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rate we're going to be in recession and the fed is going to have finally approached its 2% target. we're still at 7, above 7 1/2% but i think by end of next year the fed is going to move. what we have to also consider, charles, is the balance sheet. what are they going to do with that? charles: right. that is always a big question. i don't think they will ever get it down where they say they will get it down. they certainly didn't last time. have a great thanksgiving thank you both very much the appreciate it. >> thank you. charles: right now the biggest advancer in the market in the s&p 500 is tesla. we know it has been creamed but it got a upgrade from a tesla bear. a guy at citigroup the stock went to neutral from a sell. that is a big deal. i want to bring in kaltbaum capital management president gary kaltbaum. tesla has lost so much in the market cap. even bears admit that is too much.
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here's the thing. we see other megacap tech names trending higher. we've seen it with apple. we've seen it with microsoft. we've seen it with alphabet. we've seen nvidia make a big movement. even meta has come off the bottom. the only one that hasn't until today is tesla. all things considered is this something you would even consider buying at these levels? as the risk/reward, has it changed? >> i love the company fundamentally. i don't love the stock. for me i need downtrends bear markets to turn into uptrends. one day does not do it. i think the problem is, with the twitter buy the worry is how much time mr. musk is going to be putting into tesla but i will promise you, if they keep delivering the goods, strong earnings, revenue growth, it will get going again but one day doesn't do it for me. you mentioned a bunch of big cap megacaps rallying some. that is after big drops. they're not in uptrends yet. i call them counter trend
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rallies. there will be a place where i buy the living heck out of them but not at this juncture. charles: to your point, the channels are still coming this way, so i get your point. we have to get some bracouts there, no doubt about it. talk about the market. it has been something after quiet market. i think maybe october 10 was the low. everyone is afraid to say anything but a bear market bounce. i get it we've been burned so many times but is there a point where you start to get a little more optimistic about this move? >> here the calendar, october 13th, we thought we put in a big gargantuan reversal low. october 20 first, we thought confirmed. that is when we started buying. i wasn't excited because i tell you two, three weeks did nothing, the nasdaq 100 did nothing then two thursdays ago got the inflation number, dollar sank, the yields sank and the market lifted off. i think we're in decent stead right now.
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i've been adding but boring adding. i can't add any growth stocks in bull markets and i'm a growth stock guy. i play it very broad-based. if things continue to work i will continue to add. keep figures crossed that it does but we have a babysit on a day-by-day basis some economic numbers i'm seeing some are decent and some i'm really worried and the big inverted yield curve has me thinking big time. that is something i studied a lot. again fingers crossed but we have more to deal with as we move forward into the new year. charles: real quick, before we let you go we talked about the big yield inversion, by the way getting uglier and uglier at the moment -- >> amazing. >> big debate on wall street whether we have recession. recession is inevitable based on that and other things to start to think about how deep it will be? >> i'm pretty sure we'll get some sort of pretty good down
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move. savings rates are plunging, credit card usage is skyrocketing. craig fuller who you have on a lot, just a brilliant genius, i've been reading a lot of his things. if anybody knows the economy it is him. i'm thinking we have some things to work through. that said the market can go higher through that, believe it or not. why? because the market has been working off of liquidity and lower yields and that is all i've been telling you, charles. watch the 10-year yield if it goes up bad, goes down good, since mid-october it is coming down and guess what the market has done. charles: you connect the dots well. happy thanksgiving, gary. >> you too, my friend. thank you. charles: any comment or question for the show tweet me @vc pain. you forgot to worn us not to eat or drink during the show because you're hilarious. who says investing is boring? they're not watching "making money." i appreciate it. you might want to put athe food
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aside. we have great guests coming up. grab a pen and pad. we'll go to chart school. we'll blow away some myths that you heard about over and over again. ned davis research is here. you will really learn something big time next. ♪. as an independent financial advisor, i stand by these promises: i promise to be a careful steward of the things that matter to you most. i promise to bring you advice that fits your values. i promise our relationship will be one of trust and transparency. as a fiduciary, i promise to put your interests first, always. charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals.
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♪. charles: time now for chart school, folks. the s&p 500, right, we're getting closer and closer to that moment of truth. joining me ned davis head of research. ed, here is my personal opinion. i'm looking at this 4300. once we break out, that is, we're right near this conversion point where we got the 200-day, we've got the trend line and it just looks so compelling to me but of course i know we went up to the 200-day before, we fell so badly feels like our stomach turn into knots the closer we get to it. what are you looking now for the s&p? >> i think you're right, that is a very key point, not only
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traditionally a nice level to look at for the intermediate term trend of the market but oaf the course of the year we've tried to break above it a few times and each time has failed. so until we break above it, you know, we have to think of this as, as still being in a downtrend but if we can get above that level and confirmed by some other good information like a lot of stocks rallying, not just a few big caps leading the index higher with a lot of stocks participating that would lead us to believe maybe this is a little bit of a different rally, maybe it has more legs and can continue into next year. charles: so far at least the breadth has gotten better than the june rally but let me ask you though, if we get up here and fail again at the 200, do we go back and retest and form a double-bottom maybe? >> if we fail, then probably a retest of the lows which, you know i would consider june and october basically the same area, getting back to there probably seems likely and at that point
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you think about what is going on with the fed and the economy. charles: right. >> and if, if it looks like the fed may be done raising rates at this point, that could actually be a nice technical setup along with a good or better, improving macro setup. charles: you put out a couple things today i want to share it with the audience. first the myth busters if you will. we can't go over all of them but one, these megacap names, right? the megacap "faang" names with microsoft, google and all the other names, relative strength versus the 10-year treasury yield. i mean almost every time the yield has gone up this year these names have gone down and that correlation seems to be pretty obvious. you say not so fast? >> well that's not what it was before the pandemic. these were considered to be somewhat cyclical stocks, that is if the economy is doing better interest rates tend to rise and these cyclical stocks
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like these "faang" stocks tend to do well at the same time. charles: right. >> but as the pandemic came and we were, for a period of time stuck at home watching netflix on our ipads, they became defensive stocks almost like utility stocks for a while but as we come out of this they are actually returning to be a little bit cyclical again. so i don't think we can just look at the last couple years and conclude that is how life is going to be going forward for lots of reasons but also for how we think about these megacap tech stocks. >> so in the past you had yields going up but these names held steady and went up. this time around yields have gone up and these names have gone down and you say we get back to some form of normalcy. another one i love. the strong dollar is back for corporate earnings. explain that one. >> so a lot of companies get a lot of their profits from overseas. so if the dollar is strong you make money overseas, it comes back, it actually counts as less dollars. charles: right. >> so it does lead to lower
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profits but investors look past this so the p-e ratio tends to rise at the same time. it kind of offsets itself. investors are pretty rational and the opposite is the case if the dollar -- charles: i'm sorry. just circling that for the audience so they can see what you were talking about here. the dollar up, change in p-e ratio actually moving up and higher. also of course looking at income statements most firms put in x currency or the changes in currency. to your point most of us kind of use the constant currency although you will hear at least in a conference call major complain about the strong dollar. ed, sorry we have to leave it there. great stuff as usual. have a great thanksgiving. >> you too. charles: coming up, folks did fed officials hint maybe there is dissension among the ranks? we have judy shelton to break down that. also the fed's qe program, i think more and more people are
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saying it is a colossal mistake but is it too late? is bitcoin's crystal ball, here is the range, it can go to 5000, or one million depending who you believe. we have the high priest of bitcoin himself, max kaiser, he will explain it all and more. we'll be right back. ♪
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all along the journey, they were there. (light music) ♪. charles: all right, you can see these markets digesting the fed minutes. maybe they kind of like what they're seeing. want to go to ed lawrence. he had a chance to dig into them in our d.c. newsroom with more. reporter: we'll have to see here. participants in the minutes
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recognize the war from russia against ukraine was causing tremendous human and economic hardship, also supply chain disruptions, that pushed inflation. minutes said the third quarter gdp looked good but participants see economic expansion below trend going forward. the fed sees some softening in consumer and business spending with inflation far too high, that is their words, far too high. inflation showing signs kind of moderating they're saying. participants say below trend gdp growth which bring inflation down but it would be to their advantage to wait for more concrete signs of inflation moving down before taking a full pause. now the fed members noted that the growth in consumer spending had softened with a shift to lower cost options but the fed believes that people will continue to still spend. now several participants saw business investments beginning to be weighed down by tighter financial conditions. the committee spent time talking about how the u.s. dollar, how the strong dollar would weigh on u.s. exports in the near term.
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the fed president said that they see a low pace of layoffs adding that some participants remarked that employers in some sectors like health care, leisure, hospitality, construction faced labor shortages. you have both of those going on. fed members noted inflation is far too high, disproportionally falling on low income households. they talked about the lag in monetary policy, saying the lag might be longer for the effect on the economy because of the pandemic. that might be where we're seeing possibly under 75 basis points for the next meeting. they all agreed 75 basis point last meeting. now, charles, they said within the target range the increases would be appropriate to keep expectations anchored. very interesting talking about that lag effect. charles: they are really more and more. thank you, edward, appreciate it. many are looking for clues, particularly for dissension since the testimony fomc little
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bit different talking at pace, the fed's top priority is preserve the fed. i want to bring institute senior fellow judy shelton. judith, an opinion piece from allison slager yesterday, a lot of people talking about this one. you see now clear qe was coloss al mistake. it is stirring up the pot here. the main preoccupation for wall street is when the fed gets back to qe. wall street loves qe, we know that. does that mean it is here to stay? >> well the problem is wall street has become far too addicted to the federal reserve and it is quite amazing really, but what have central banks actually delivered? inflation, indebtedness and financial instability. we have a very fragile international monetary and financial system and yet they
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just keep being granted more and more power. i think they have become far too prominent in financial markets and too political. so it's good that article came out. i read it myself. i was happy that someone was sufficiently bold to say what we really get out of quantitative easing and did it create more problems than it solved? but too many people are just ready to acquiesce to the fed, even though its performance has been less than stellar. charles: political side is even more worrisome, when you consider the weighting of political ideology on the left versus the center or the right. there was also a piece in "the hill" that suggests congress can restore integrity of the dollar. we pointed to three bills making rounds of republican. gold reserve transparency act of 2021 and price stability act of 2022 and new one that links the dollar to gold. here is the thing, judith,
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people say two things, the dollar is strong. every day you complain how strong the dollar is but aren't that is pipe-dream, those are the old ways of looking at finance? >> but this is the problem, there is a disconnect between the domestic value of the dollar which we see is being diminished through inflation. it is effectively being debased as high as 9% at one time. now we should be grateful that it is 7.7%? that is a decline in purchasing power. that really represents expropriation. our money is meant to serve as a reliable store of value and an honest measure and the fed deliberately tries to debase it, even with its two% inflation target. charles: right. >> and i'm surprised that we accept that. it really -- price stability should mean zero inflation. charles: right. there is another piece i want your thoughts on, i have a
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minute to go. talk about the editorial in the "new york sun," headline, ftx debacle, fiat currency in the age of fiat currency. there is a lot in there that stood out to me. it gets back to what you were saying. the collapse in the value of ftx tokens known as ftt is breathtaking it is no more breathtaking over the cop lance of the last 50 years in our own government federal reserve notes. bus the boiling frog analogy here come into play? in other words, because it has taken so long for this to happen over a period of years instead of just a shock seeing something become worthless overnight we're not getting it as a society? >> yes. and i think that was a very profound analogy made in the "new york sun". perpetual low inflation is like the frog in the boiling water but when we hit these much higher levels of inflation that we're still dealing with, and they required this punishment of economic growth and now the fed
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no longer favors maximum employment, they would like to see more pressure on the labor market, i think that we see that there has been a big change in attitudes towards the fed. so those legislative initiatives being put forth by the congressman show that congress may be stepping up to its constitutional responsibility to oversee the regulation of the money. they farmed it out to the fed which calls itself an independent government agency but in fact it really is part of our constitution and it is quoted in the constitution, this right to regulate the money and the same sentence that gives congress the right to determine weights and measures because money is meant to be a standard. it is supposed to be an honest measure. charles: right. well, judy, i hope so. there may be some strange bedfellows brewing in d.c. i think we'll need that combination to get things right back constitutionally correct
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for sure. thank you so much. happy thanksgiving. >> you too, charles. thanks. charles: i want to say on this ftx debacle, right? because the mainstream media, even a lot of people in the financial media are using it as an excuse to go after bitcoin but this is time for bitcoin advocates to explain the difference. with me now, bitcoin advisor, max kaiser. we have little bit of delay. much your fans demanded i bring you on. i've been a fan of your work all the time. what is the main thing that the media is getting wrong when they lump in crypto, ftx and bitcoin? >> hi, charles, well there is no scams here in el salvador. the bet made bitcoin legal. he stipulated no scammers, no scam coins, no
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sam bankman-fried, no brock pierce, no charless who hoskin. they were turned away. they came here to do their scamming and they were all told to get lost. here you have the united states and other regions are allowing the scamming to take place completely unchecked, unregulated. here in el salvador we're enjoying a bit of a renaissance under a bitcoin standard. under the bitcoin standard the economy here is booming, tourism is up. you have forward investment increased dramatically and this is really becoming the bitcoin citadel here in el salvador, charles. i insite you to come. bring your bathing suit. bring your surfboard. you will have a great time. charles: believe me i will comb. our housekeeper for 20 years is from el salvador. she is singing the praises of el salvador the new president. she says all the countries around el salvador want to do the him as their president as
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well. you're on the eve of so-called volcano bonds. there is not allowing mining too expensive here in america, new york is banning it. tell us about the volcano bonds. >> right, well you get the price you deserve in bitcoin. michael sayler starting buying bitcoin at 10,000. i started buying bitcoin at a dollar. why he calls me the high priest of bitcoin. you talk often about you get the price you deserve. new york by bang banning bitcoin they will pay a lot higher. people will buy bitcoin. it is eating the money world the way software ate the industrial world. it is the best form of money we've seen in history. this is why we are anticipating nothing but clear skies going forward. and the mining here in el salvador will be funded by these new volcano bonds. the bill which is a new
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securities bill, charles, is now going to become law very soon and this opens up the possibility and the, the new reality of these volcano bond that tap into geothermal energy or to mine bitcoin on behalf of the company. i should point out the new securities laws make bitcoin legal tender. they recognize bitcoin as commodity money, superior to gold, superior to the dollar. it also stipulates quite clearly every single thing out there is not bitcoin is security. ethereum is security. xrp is security. all 20,000 scam coins are securities and nfts are securities. they have to go through the securities regulator this is something that no one else is doing or recognizing. as a result they let the scammers like sam bankman-fried who is like a cross between bernie madoff and charles manson, just operate without any restrictions, ripping people off as a racket.
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he is a racket racketeer. gary gensler is involved and high-profile democratic politicians. this is racket. racketeering. it is a criminal enterprise down there in the bahamas. charles: i know. i got to let you go but i think the reason they did this, they have allowed all of this, they're so afraid of bitcoin that they have allowed these scams to perpetuated because the regulators could have stepped in. politicians could have stepped in. instead they let the american people get crushed again. max, i want to talk to you when you get back to the states. maybe i will come down to el salvador to meet you soon. thank you very much, my friend. coming up, folks my takeaway on thanksgiving side dishes. have a little fun here. tweet me your favorite, minus sufficienting and cranberries, cvpayne. danielle dimartino booth, she is coming up next. we'll talk about the trillions of dollars that are still floating around out there and how they still threaten our
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economy. ♪.
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charles: you know, there's a serious tug-of-war going on out there, right? all the money that poured into this economy during and after the covid-19, i just want you to take a look at it. between biden's three plans and the one president trump put into office, 43% of gdp. you want to know how big that is, the new deal with all the things we still get, 40% for the new deal. meanwhile the seven month change that right now in the money supply is, we've never even seen anything like this before. going back to 1959 this move down 1.5%, seven months is the fastest rate of change ever with respect to the money supply. so on one hand you got trillions
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of dollars still gushing around. on the other hand you have the fed trying to pull this money out. i want to bring in quill intelligence ceo chief strategist danielle dimartino booth. danielle, i mean, how do you square this circle? >> well, charles, right now you've got amazing crosscurrents. and you've really don't have -- i think what you need to pay more attention to is the fact that there is no more flow going into the market. after these business income tax refunds, finish being filed and claimed which was a cute little footnote in biden's final stimulus package and companies are taking wild advantage of, if you can show that your company was down for one day you can claim up to $26,000 per employee to call that back, thank you u.s. taxpayer. after that is finished seeing in the growth of the money supply things are slowing down quickly. the minutes suggest powell is increasingly alone in this
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battle however. charles: interesting, that 26,000, now that you mentioned it, i have seen commercials about it. i wasn't sure what they were talking about. now we know. i have to ask my cio to call these people up. but in the meantime it is creating this problem right, because you've got half the country that are complaining about inflation. now you got the other half of the country that is saying they're in their own personal recession. they're coexisting at the same time as these two things battle each other out? >> it is absolutely remarkable. again there is still tons of stimulus money flowing. we had the food stamp program, snap. we had that have another 20% increase this october. on top of last october's 25% increase. and yet you have middle income americans stuck in the middle who are not beneficiaries to the widening social safety net, nor in the top 1%. they're not claiming 26,000 for 100 employees like an auto dealer did, who got a $2.2 million refund that is the
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biggest problem with conflicting policies, charles, americans who are hard-working, middle income, they are the ones being squeezed the hardest. charles: if they didn't go to college got to watch someone who did get even more money. or at least not pay bills they y were obligated to. new home sales, the street was looking for 570. this caught my eye more than anything else. $493,000. this keeps rocketing up. you've been talking about how homes are imploding, i see it in other places but we're not seeing it here. what is keeping this going? >> a lot of what is keeping going is bad statistics at census bureau, charles. the number we saw this morning does not account for near record cancellations. people in the position of buying a home today are saying that half million dollar price tag, it simply doesn't work. so that is why we also see a record number of homebuilders offering incentives to help move
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these homes. people are, the builders themselves are realizing they will not move this product in this environment when layoffs are increasing at the pace they are. charles: real quick, jay powell said you know what, if you want to know when recession comes, watch 10-year, three month. we watched yield curve it has come crashing down to the biggest inversion since 2000. we know what happened then. is this a signal for the fed to start slowing up a little bit? >> it certainly is, what markets are hoping for but again the minutes that were released today don't reflect this massive rally we've seen subsequent to. i suspect a week from today when jay powell is on the hill you will hear a very hawkish powell compared to what minutes were. this is not what he wants to see come out of the financial markets, massive rallies. charles: this means, deeper and deeper and deeper recession. >> that's right. charles: happy thanksgiving my friend. you are one of the best. >> thank you, charles. charles: not not too late for
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you to share your thanksgiving pair of the side dish. i tell you some of the choices out there have not traveled enough. we'll take you to fundamental school. we'll tell you how to reconstruct your portfolio. rock luna is explaining and telling investors they have to be in small caps. he will explain it next. and innovative ways to make your e-tron your own. through elegant design and progressive technology. all the exhilaration, none of the compromise. the audi e-tron family. progress that moves you.
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charles: sorry i have to get my composure. someone tweeted what sadness is happening in marion. thanksgiving side dish is side salad, the only state that mentioned something like that. the big theme today is tweaks in the market and tweaks you should be making in your portfolio. my next guest made some adjustments him several, some really eye-popping things for me. i want to bring in surevest ceo rob luna. i want to start with macro look. you like small caps. vioo. best way to play. we have the chart on the screen. broke you there the 200-day moving average. it looks great. but what is the value proposition there? >> if you look at that etf, charles, the reason i chose that one it is trading 11 1/2 times next year's earnings. compare that to the s&p 500 at 18 times. just in general small caps have not gotten a lot of love for a long time now, charles. it is supposed to be when you buy smaller companies over a
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longer period of time you get higher rate of term because there is more risk, higher growth rate. let's think about it, if you're a 2 billion-dollar company, a lot easier to grow to 4 billion, 6 billion, than a trillion dollar company doubling or tripling. this is an area people are underweighted. you want to play it with vioo. charles: what is up with the santa claus rally? some people think it my started already but a lot of folks are too afraid to say it out loud because we've had so many boom and bust this is year? >> i've got hit in the face a few times trying to pick bottoms in this market, charles. right now you have tax loss selling that will be going on. we have fed minutes today might have sounded a little bit more dovish. i believe, 14th, 15th, we have the next fed meeting f that comes out, they get the all-clear in terms of rates going the other way i think you will see a huge rally but that might not be until the last two weeks of december. charles: a lot of people coming out with their 2023 economic forecast. what are you looking at?
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soft landing, shallow recession, regular recession, what are you modeling right now at this moment? >> yeah i think it will be probably a minor recession. the area, you were talking about it with your priest guests in terms of housing. i think we're just unfortunately starting to see the beginning of the housing downturn. i saw the data came out today. i agree. i don't think that is reflecting what is going on in the housing market. days on market a lot longer, price cuts happening. that i think will hurt people. i think we'll see a very recession, minor though. if you price that in where the s&p can go, i think six to 10% on the upside next year. small caps have much further to go. that is why i'm leaning more towards those folks. charles: before i let you go, a, happy thanksgiving and got to get your favorite side dish. >> definitely not side salad, charles. >> [laughter]. >> it is not, man. i didn't get 200-pounds eating side salads.
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i go with stuffing. stuffing, cranberry sauce. you have to have them together. charles: we can have thanksgiving dinner together anytime. have a great week. >> thanks, brother. charles: my takeaway, we'll go more into this. it is fascinating. the map is remarkable and our takeaway and your on the popular thanksgiving side dishes. we'll be right back. ♪. ...
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- my name is deven schei and i served in the united states army. back in 2004 when my brother came back from his first tour, he asked me to make him a promise and that promise was if anything ever happened to him overseas that i would finish what he started. unfortunately, my brother was shot in 2005 in the head in mosul, iraq. three years later, i knew that i needed to fulfill that promise. it was about finishing what the schei name started. and july 2nd, 2010, we were called on a mission. and that was the day i got hit. transitioning back to civilian life was extremely difficult. you feel like an outsider every it was hard to admit defeat. and that's exactly what i felt like i was doing when i finally contacted the wounded warrior project. i knew that i needed help. and when i reached out, they gave me tools to better my life. they truly saved my life.
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