asked at the table but seeing the founder defense focus on following prey to mistake bankman claimed he was incorrect on alameda balances, embarrassingly large, because of very poorly labeled accounting thing historical artifact from time before ftx had bank accounts latest development, sam bankman-fried hides out no 40-million-dollar bahamian mansion money reported evaporated told axios his fortune down to 100,000 dollars, because this is quote is important quote everything i had was just tied up in the company, that is making critics question if everything he had was company money everything he spent may have been company money including political donations, he will be speaking before 5 pm eastern that is ahead avenue very important congressional hearing tomorrow, so

definitely one to watch. maria: that is a great point that you made kelly thanks very much kelly o'grady in l.a. this morning next hour of "mornings with maria" begins right now. . maria: good wednesday morning thanks for joining us this morning i am maria bartiromo. it is wednesday, november 30, top stories right now 8:00 a.m. on the button on the east coast, congressional intervention, congress accidenting in to aelevator railroad strike with legislation expected today, nancy pelosi promising to send to senate today the deal that several unions have already rejected, with new benefits including some paid sick days to force unions to accept the deal avert an economy crippling strike needing 60 votes in senate. >> biden says a strike bl averted as wounds balk the congress intervention accusing the president of being a pawn

of big business today final trading day a big day of economic data futures higher fractionally dow industrials up 18 s&p up 6 1/2, nasdaq higher by 33 the november adp report out 15 minutes' time 8:15 a.m. earn join us for that second read third investigatory gdp out 30 minutes, october jolts report, job options report 10 a.m. eastern ahead of important november jobs' report on friday, woo got all-hands-on-deck to break all economic data out in a few moments stay with us, stocks are a mixed finish yesterday take a look dow industrials up fractionally just 3 points on the session, nasdaq down 65 s&p lower by 6 dow up 4 of the last five trading days though markets are cautious ahead of federal reserve chairman jay powell speaking at brookings institute will he drop hammer on more rate hikes to come, ahead of december fed meeting in two weeks, interest rates this morning, 10 and 20 year

pressures yield curve narrows near, in 223 years 10-year down 1.1 basis point, level 7. 7% in asia overnight most greene japan weak factory activity sees slowest reading since april, protesters on the ground in china being met with increased police and surveillance in china big cities as ccp puts more police on the streetlights steps up surveillance to track and punish defiant protesters of china's covid strategy zero-covid strategy also, by the way, affecting globe growth imf, poised to cut growth expectations on china no comment on protesters from joe biden as china spokesperson is now attacking the white house' response to covid, and fentanyl we are on it all morning long "mornings with maria" is live right now. maria: house republicans planning to investigate the biden family shady business deals, and influence peddling, already facing scrutiny from

media the los angeles times out with you new op-ed called enjoyed the been ghazi hearings? you are going to love gop story of angercontainment. >> says, the public deserves to know what really happened, referring to how twitter censored the hunter biden study joining me soon to be chairman of the house oversight committee james comer good to see you thanks very much for being here as you he gear up for 118th congress and chairman of the oversight committee tell us where you are focused in terms of joe biden hunter biden influence peddling story. >> a great question squarely on bank reports have swor responded ensfrom hunter biden as well as introduced from at least two whistleblowers point to specific things hunter

biden was paying for for joe biden i don't think we find direct payments from china or russia to joe biden, it, it pares that the millions of dollars went through several of hunter biden's various llcs, in turn, joe biden was receiving benefits through hunter biden paying for basic living expenses repairs to homes things like that obviously, something that the president has lied about, he lied about his knowledge of hunter's shady business dealings development of the in hunter's shady business dealings we believe lied about fwrefz all-in ip from his family past decade. >> i know at one point chinese officials sent hunter biden enormous diamond that is a way of hiding money? what specifically were chinese officials and officials from ukraine, officials from russia, what specifically were they paying hunter biden for? >> putting his role on burisma

board aside what were they paying him for. >> look at what hunter biden's businesses really are, he doesn't manufacture anything, he doesn't own any equipment, he doesn't have any employees, he is not licensed to sell anything, it appears to me his businesses were influence peddling, only reason, that you can make, that a these foreign countries were paying hunter biden millions of dollars would be for access to federal government at highest levels to his father. this is something clearly, should not be legal this is something that the president has not been truthful with american people over we are going to make this one of our investigative priorities in new congress. it is very sad to see media all over the united states, write so many op-eds trashing the fact that republicans simply want to have a focus of an investigation, to determine whether or not this president of the united states is compromised by our adversaries. >> really rich isn't it to see

media talk about your investigations, as some kind of a political move, after four years literally four years of attacking donald trump, and conservatives and republicans, because they just did not agree, with where media had its priorities, and politics, i mean literally, four years of a russia collusion lie, going viral in media, and -- you know -- bullying conservatives out of restaurants now because you are investigating, what could be real crimes criminal activity, your supposed to be the political guy. >> right, so many op-eds i read one in the hill this morning saying they are concerned republicans getting off to a bad start i am sure media is concerned whether or not the republicans get off to a good start or not the fact of the matter is the media is covered for the biden family influence peddling for a decade tried to suppress the

hunter biden laptop story they tried to discount the evidence, that we've already proven to american people, in a press conference a couple weeks ago, now they are continuing to criticize the fact we dare investigating this disappointing, the fact -- only republican agenda thus far? we've promoted, the commitment to america, we've talked be reducing inflation reducing crime trying to secure southern border to eliminate fentanyl across the border media tries to spin this republicans only focus on new congress is gairlth president biden it is a focus along with very conservative legislative agenda. >> it is very disappointing particularly enormous threats country faces in part particular communist china you don't have scrutiny there, you don't have scrutiny on tiktok,

i -- i mean you don't have scrutiny over you know, some of the real threats to america house minority leader kevin mccarthy yesterday suggested white house monitoring twitter, and elon musk, could be violating first amendment here is kevin mccarthy yesterday i want to get your reaction to this watch. . >> -- >> -- >> keeping -- eye on twitter under elon musk -- >> that was offensive to me governments going after someone who wants to have free speech? what do they have to look at twitter about? i think they should stop picking on elon musk. maria: you would think the media wants free speech, but their losing their democrat pr squawk box i impetus they are losing that with elon musk, because he is trying to make a balance, are you going to be investigating that? look at apple, implementing 10 minute time limit for chinese users of airdrop, are --

update from apple restricting airdrop file sharing in china. you know. when hong kong protesters were on the ground, they used social media to get more protesters to join their protester, now not able to do that, because of apple. because ceo tim cook made the decision, to update the ios features and no longer allows airdrop, to work, you know all the time it has 10-minute limit ceo tim took either meeting with gop lawmaker own capitol hill will vooifrt committee meet with tim cook? are you investigating this. >> we don't have a meeting down with tim cook, with respect to twitter long before elon musk kill a to twitter we sent letters, telling the twitter executives. preserve documents, preserve our correspondence we believe that democrat national committee as well as fbi was communicating with twitter

just like they were with, according to zuckerberg trying to get them suppress stories would help dmalths hurt republicans, this is wild, the government has no business, in censoring free speech we mentioned elon musk going to turn documents over in k34ks with his team i think this is something white house is very scared of, the to find that one of the social media companies is changed ownership they are are willing to pill beans on this administration effort to suppress free speech. >> so you are going to know based on what you learned from documents out of twitter, how the white house, called twitter and others to say, censor the hunter biden don't let anybody know about hunter biden influence peddling making money on joe biden's name? >> somebody called twitter. according to zuckerberg at facebook it was fbi, but we

are certain somebody affiliated with this government in washington, d.c., was calling twitter telling them suppress conservative speech and that is a concern that should be a concern to even the liberal immediate not letting up hopeful that elon musk cooperate fully in this investigation. maria: we are following your important work thanks very much for being here this morning. >> thank you, maria. maria: congressman james comer in d.c. economic data coming out right after the break. ♪ ♪

november adp weaker-than-expected cheryl casone. cheryl: much weaker than expected, 127,000 jobs this is the private payroll report for november adp the first kickoff to the week of jobs data we are going to be getting again

weaker-than-expected at 127,000, was interesting here that you know if you look at estimates for friday's big jobs' report for nonfarm jobs, that estimate for friday is 200,000 like adp was today 200,000, well missed big time 127,000 looking to friday unemployment rate supposed to stay 3.7% we shall see i throw out there send it back to you, maria, is the question mark is one more live looking at headlines doordash layingoff a bunch of their staff, when does that trickel out? maybe this month we start to see it. maria: waiting for when employment numbers catch up with weakening, cheryl, thank you a market that is rallying on number dagen let's not forget this is exactly what the federal reserve wants, your reaction to adp national employment report weaker-than-expected, right in line with what fed wants to do

with all rate hikes, slow things down. dagen: right in line with what market participants investors want fed will slow the interest rate increases, and even indicate, not just smaller rate increases, but taking a pause altogether, so we have slight gains across the board here. but i would expect, brian can weigh in on this -- until after the holidays might expect a real -- layoffs, because we focus on like door doosh the tech sector, these once fast-growing companies so hard-hit with market downturn a lot of layoffs that you've seen sayat out of facebook, meta the like too many employees doing a whole lot of nothing that is not a great indicator of layoffs there, i

will stress in the labor market. >> as -- say layoffs, fedex would. >> can i jump in. cheryl: more data out of adp i think worth letting you know first off this is the slowest job creation number we've had since january 2021. other thing adp is saying that fewer people are quitting, and what they're saying companies are not playoffing those that are quitting but fewer people are quitting, what does that tell you people are realizing okay, maybe i don't have a better officer somewhere else, also saying that companies are no longer what they are calling replacement mode this is reality on the ground. >> wonder how this will compare to friday jobs numbers. brian: a canary in the coal mine i am with dagen i expected more after the new year especially when you've got christmas season here you

think about the double whammy that could create if you get pullbacks on jobs, you've got all household, arriving interest rates really sets up to be a storm, in the beginning of the year. so i am a little surprised by how low this number is, especially given all the holiday hiring, there is a lot of churn there, and some data cheryl mentioned about people not quitting? that is a good indication of people saying i am not so hot on prospects. maria: all bets off if we get a rail strike needs 60 votes in the senate for legislation nancy pelosi is pushing here is letter she sent to colleagues yesterday says we are going to do legislation today we will consider, the strike averting legislation to doept tentative agreement as negotiating by railroad companies labor leaders we will have separate up or down vote to add 7 days of paid

leave, paid sick leave with railroads to the tentative agreement then sending the package to the senate will then go directly to the president's desk for signature. dagen: i think it will pass, i think it -- if it is -- if they have -- if separate up or down vote. >> even seven sick days. dagen: saying that is -- >> if just passes, as it was ratified, by 8 unions shut down by 4 of the rail unions, i just want to point something out that, 24% increase, that is retroactive, to 2020. so you are getting a pay increase for from over four-year period and goes back two years, what planet does that happen for most workers? not on earth it doesn't. >> very concerned, unions going to strike --

lee: exactly what i am worried about impact far the reaching i really believe going to give fuel to the labor movement. maria: rising fuel from it you are right we take a break more economic data on tap second read of the gdp is out right after the break. stay with us. . ♪ this... is the planning effect. this is how it feels to know you have a wealth plan that covers everything that's important to you. this is what it's like to have a dedicated fidelity advisor looking at your full financial picture. making sure you have the right balance of risk and reward. and helping you plan for future generations. this is "the planning effect" from fidelity.

maria: welcome back futures up on this final trading day of the month federal reserve jay powell is set to speak today 1b pm eastern to brookings institute talking about economy labor market ahead of the year's final fed meeting that is happening in two weeks december 13, 14 central bank expected to raise rates at that time by half a point, 50 basis points, joining us right now, snbc chief commitment former of white house economic council great to see you -- >> assess the backdrop waiting on gdp what are you expecting how would you assess to economy. economy no io is not very healthy. the in third quarter all growth net exports, take that out, very dill domestic man the markets are anticipating a pivot inflation coming down

jay powell, reiterate probably third or fourth time investors we want prices lower we want rates higher prices lower opposite according to my calculations 234r7b8 conditions from chicago fed easy today as in may when rates were 300 basis points lower he has his work cut out for him. maria: do you think we are going to see a railroad strike? >> uh -- >> i am not ee i am not convinced that canning is doing to reverse this i am reading commentary from unions they are med as hell. >> there almost a strike before midterms having was avoided, a high probability that will make fed's job more difficult. maria if we have a recession the yield curve is telling us recession is going to be deep not average, we will crush demand enough strike adopt matter in aththe fed has to detail with transitory? temporary a function of how

strong labor market is or isn't. brian: one thing ignored in certainty hits businesses am i having product or not can i move product or not to me starting to dig into fourth quarter we're not seeing until next year you talk recession are we accelerating that, given the uncertainty. >> you raise very good point one of the most volatile components is inventory building, now hearing reports that the retail sector for christmas, holidays stocked inventory that is not bought, the unwind of inventory next year will hurt growth it is possible that you get more boom-bust dynamic, other farthers makes unsetter higher. dagen: to the crypto huckster listening to this segment earlier is calling me out for saying crypto euphoria has

only begun to die down that is some sort of sign of a bottom i note that i called the crypto clap last year to that point how did -- like -- you know, how did anybody not see the asset collapse not see it coming this year joe given all the stimulus monetary fiscal and fact that federal reserve was a going to have to remove, all that money, to fight inflation? and how do people think on planet earth is is going is to be some sort of mild recession in new year. >> -- mild recession is a factor, but the answer fed has been so easy for so long, this started with greenspan it was god on steroids through bernanke, powell money free al

diming people do dumb things with free money you saw staff market boom crypto market boom, of course, a bust people are greed the nature of markets want to squeeze every last bit of return out. when fed pivots people got caught off guard it wasn't jay powell was, for his job got hawkish he went from dove to hawk. >>. >> lael brainard right bundy him he wanted the job he said let me go with biden what biden wants come on give me a graek gdp out any second 2. % growth third quarter kwpg. >> something like that generally second quarter revision not particularly large surprised if it schaenths more than -- >> gdp, hitting tape as he mortgage rates drop to 6.49%

this morning, come off the highs, the numbers are out cheryl casone with it, we are waiting on home sales. cheryl: not seeing gdp cross right now producers if it i don't please let me know. >> end ing home sales 10 a.m. eastern after mortgage rates have come off highs, expecting 5% drop there. that would be 11th decline 12 months chel you've got a housing market under pressure gdp second read of the third quarter, coming out any second markets -- >> 2.9. we got it sorry. maria: 2.9%. cheryl: 2.9 maria there you go, a couple seconds to get data a little bit of delay, for whatever reason here but. maria: estimate 2.7%, 2.9% number better-than-expected. cheryl: i am told 2.9 better-than-expected number the first read 2.6 estimate for this one 2.7, now we're

told 2.9. again, the futures kind of ticking back down a little bit that is a big let me look at the spread really quick the spread for gdp from -- there was 2.-- the spread for the estimates for third quarter gdp was 2.6. to 3.2. 2.6 to 3.2, that is you within the range, of economists that were looking for third quarter gdp read again, the second read, we will get another one, that could revived rare second read is much of a you know this much of a difference, but there you have it. brian: to the o point earlier smaller import than first time to net export number, still driver,. >> i want pt to say. >> growth was coming from --

>> net exports, took out economy at least first print was down one or two-tenths, you talk recession, if you look at the last six, recessions, four out of last six reduction gdp was in quarter right before the economy went into downturn, average 3.3, number could have been 2.9, 3.2 higher than thought could have been weaker doesn't matter in rear view mirror backyard looking not forward looking why the yield curve, jobless claims, consumer sentiment those are the factors that are typically do much better job tell us where we're going not where we've been. >> what is your read on consumer spending i keep watching thinking so much is borrowed tum new money being spent are you concerned about that going into 2023. >> i am concerned about it i mean to me seeing a lot of mysterious in the household sector credit card resolving debt can you highlight is a

problem real incomes living standards shrinking two years a lot of stress lower income middle income consumer s sentiment at recession reading yes a lot of terrible signs out there, the big issue brian is going to be if economy weakens start loving job jobs will hurt even further the proverbial straw breaks the camel'sback. >>in brian, joe brian cheryl what do you look for next important catalyst. >> unemployment data friday kau know hill of when with unemployment rate has risen 50 basis points important i are or.5 from low it alleged far

shadoweded recession. >> expected up 200,000. >> that is payroll the rate 3. up from 3.5, a month or two ago market thinks it stays at 3.7 joel shulman what are you seeing in terms of investors preparing for what could be a rocky mark story in '23. >> focusing on interest rates about what is going to happen next fed meeting inflation i think inflation narrative throughout 2022 see it continue through next year are a, as guests point out import/export data part of gdp growth, is i guess not surprising considering the soaring dollar the soaring dollar, provided a temporary rush for exports going up imports going down, that -- our behavior doesn't change that as much short term an unusual pattern when markets reflect that change going to revert to exports being, um,

more expensive and imports cheaper we will see that reverse, i think going forward the inflation data going to continue to come in, cpi coming way down particularly as housing getting hammered we are going o o see housing drop quite a bit, probably in a few months see come down that is again as you've been saying earlier this morning in veer view mirror seeing inflation coming way down employment, 79 million baby boomers, many reluctantly working so when we pull them out of the system going to help our -- our unemployment numbers not mentioned layoffs tech layoffs many times h-1b worker temporary foreign workers in tech areas coming from you know foreign nation around the world particularly from asia not going to hit unemployment numbers another important statistic a lot of people i think may be overlooking. dagen: joe i want to ask you a couple things to wrap

together gdp estimate 4.3%, growth in fourth quarter, that wildly wrong? and, this -- the politicians in washington and across the country their knee-jerk seems we are going to fight inflation with inflationary policies. like extending the payment moratorium on student loans, that is wildly inflationary, maria mentioned this yesterday, adding back the child tax credit, that additional child tax credit how does that impact inflation, and made federal reserve's job that much harder. definitely makes fed's job much harder means they have to raise interest rates further hurt asset prices more to offset money government is basically throwing back into economy so it is a huge problem, on atlanta fed, look, their basing their stipulateoff the numbers they have right now the, through october, not making any guests on novemberor december my best

guess we will be a lot under 4.3% the question is though where is that 4% coming from if all inventory building because people have been waiting for awhile to restock shelves because of supplyings disruptions, all of a sudden spending isn't as robust as people think in the fourth quarter because of the debt issues et cetera, then a big pullback q1 i wouldn't look atlanta fed necessarily as being an all clear sign. >> what are we going to do congressman you are about to take majority in house you and colleagues what kacan you do to offset some trowelling signs in terms of a weakening economy. >> we're seeing fed reacting right now to terrible fiscal policy in washington remember last two years, congress spent 6.8 trillion dollars, in new government spending the result is inflation outpacing wages when you talk to folks who are struggling to get by, that is the most important number to look at, wages aren't keeping up with inflation, we got to

rein in reckless spending unleash, energy here we got to look at labor policies that allow tomb people to find them on side slooipz rather than back into the workforce. >> so far, we are seeing, inflation continue at elevated levels is the only lever you have brian, to stop reckless spending what about all packages big is mentions in terms of more money chasing too few goods. brian: absolutely not only range in reckless spending we have to get policies right to help drive growth in the united states number one we need to unleash american energy we still see a presidential previously went to saudi arabia, to beg for oil and gas now making deals with venezuela. he should be in north dakota in west texas unleash american energy we have labor policies not helping people back into workforce, if we do all three address reckless spending

address energy labor policies we can drive growth help wages, back up ultimately tame inflationings. >> cheryl has more. cheryl: my nose in adp report goes along with what he is speaking about as dpr as wages and jobs constituents, americans within adp if not in from leaser hospitality this would have been a lot woerz leisure hospitality added 224,000 but job losses, manufacturing, 100,000 professional business services final activities i.t., goods producing services 86,000 jobs i want tf it wasn't for leisure hospitality that is a travel story we have been talking about with nation aren'ts of driving trying to get together post-covid you would have had worse again back to what fed is doing but i think friday's report is going to be very, very telling now. maria: going to be telling especially after spending

season we just saw how would you assess the holiday shopping? right didn't records reached black friday cyber-monday also expected -- >> dollar amounts. >> that is exactly right, the inflation, but very good numbers november 07, december 07 started recession in jan. >> a question look what fed is trying to do a crush demand study what fed is about look what drives improvement in inflation part maybe demand but a bunch to congressman's point supply-side you need supply-side moving, energy on labor you don't see a lot of relief there for businesses, could we get a situation, where the fed drive inflation down maybe to 4, 5% level at cpi but to get you need changes in supply-side not getting. >> we're not getting again, it false back on fed the energy story in particular, is so

powerful because, as you know, the energy is product that goes into almost so many goods, also for distribution, energy, so important you would think you want to keep money here the infrastructure here, not have it elsewhere but data show administration has been very -- lowest amount i guess looezing i think since truman, it doesn't make sense he other than politics but hurting, murth middle america. dagen: also hitting middle america repugnant immoral if you look at moratorium on too soon student payments also a moratorium on interest aqueuing on that loan, so no request accruing at all in essence, the -- the government biden and company is allowing that debt to inflate away, so a, the real value the loan is

declining in real value because of the inflation. and so what is happening is because of the inflation, and the -- rich people 40% of the more than 40%, 50 or 60% student loan out there from rich people with graduate degrees doctors lawyers, investment banks getting a handout not paying student loan, and not accruing interest on them because of that it is inflationary that inflation financial burden has been passed to those who were burdened by higher interest rates, handed down by the federal reserve, so somebody who does not have a college degree, is -- and needs to go out and lease or apply a new pickup truck, is paying a high much higher interest rate on said pickup truck or value of their home is going to collapse because of higher mortgage rates so the

financial transfer, that is -- truly stunning and horrifically. >> this has been engineered by -- the politicians and federal reserve. >> yeah, the federal reserve the federal reserve has a big hand in this big hand in this they allowed it kept policy way too easy away too long could go started down balance sheet in 21, v-shaped recovery began with president trump continued into '21 economy was healthy. >> thomas hope ig brought up losing, creating a dislocation for the market i know you think rail strike is really generous i am not so sure i am not so sure we're not seeing a rail strike the lindsey group

report this morning, and the lindsey group i spoke with union spokesperson who declared that could imposing the president's emergency board deal denies revolutionized workers right to strike denying benefits they would likely otherwise attain if not denied right to strike, this detail according to this union worker i know it is 24% increase in wages benefits overall but this is a 14.1% immediate pay hike along with 4.8% hike final two years of the contract they are getting 1,000 dollar bonuses, five 1,000 dollar bonuses receive 11 thousand dollars lump sum payment first three years the sticking deal was paid sick leave, let's not forget in covid guys and gallons deemed essentially workers, didn't matter what was going on they are difficult circumstances essentially, so still upset four unions that voted against it i know four and majority

have voted, for it but the four represent a majority of workers what do you think happens here? >> is that uh i don't know -- honestly i don't know. >> a strike. >> if strike it will hurt manufacturing, the manufacturing numbers tomorrow they will be hurt will lift prices complicate the fed's job probably at margin heen higher interest rates because to brian's early point if you are on supply-side unfortunately too many of us for got is equally he important to demand if you can't distribute goods in other inflation fed has to lift rates more to hurt landfall. supply-side difficult to bring up this president constantly alienating business how do you create more products when he tactics you for raising prices. dagen: not just the talk it is the walk the fact inflation reduction act you had minitax

on businesses additional taxes new taxes on energy. >> so that he was in michigan yesterday, bragging about his record on the economy, and bragging about manufacturing, think about if you are a manufacturer in this country you can't find labor you can't plan your purchases because of -- inflation is so high this is one of the worst times in the memory with manufacturing president so on and so forth acknowledging that on the road bragging about it tell me what confidence that is going to inspire on supply side of the economy. >> small business survey, is certainly, as well consumer confidence business confidence week probably reflects those concerns you highlight. maria: what in terms of jobs that we are seeing? where do you think there will be growth in jobs? >> well the thing is interesting point earlier about, leisure hospitality

that is covid catch-up haven't for holidays leisure ho. catching up the rest of the economy looks so after housing leading indicator, housing in free-fall, pending home sales soft but weaken a lot more going feared. >> mortgage rates could came in. >> even at 6.50 a disabling in mortgage rates than beginning of the year. >> year ago you are talking 3% in change, something congressman brian steil are you going to vote for new new railroad detail nancy pelosi sent a letter to all members saying adopt tentative agreement as negotiating by rail companies labor leaders a separate up or down vote to add 7 days paid sick level for railroads to tentative agreement send to senate what is your vote. >> all of this got dropped last night we are having conversation in the house today we cannot allow a rail strike to completely decimate

our supply chain across the united states of america about you we got to remember september 15, before election, president biden championed an agreement that he didn't have, president biden continued to fail to actually engage in this, in if avert the strike, can't allow strike to take place whether or not a cooling-off period or agreement go through these are the discussions we are going to have here on the hill today. >> are you expecting the supply chain issues to worsen by uncertainty of this? >> absolutely we continue to see struggling in administration not only companies trying to react to potential rail strike potential coolingoff period we are seeing it take place in sectors the biden administration continues to refuse to address supply chain crisis in the united states consistency shortages, now for over two years we got to get ourselves back on track here in the united states. >> i wonder what happens dagen forced to work under t

this collective bargaining agreement nobody wants a rail strike, jamming down throats right now i am not so shufr that is the answer. dagen: you read off what they get, down to awfullyly generous to me, and they are not healthcare workers working through the -- they're not healthcare workers they weren't, aren't, a two year retroactive pay increase, and they've had two years to negotiate this. it has been in mediation under, um, since the summer, and i just always think about ronald reagan. go ahead strike, and president will fire you! maria: what happened to -- dagen: . >> tough joe. dagen: biden won't, biden understands, that how many

jobs over 700,000 jobs at risk if the rail unions strike 8 ratified this deal four did not. and, this is congress's job under the railway act they have broad powers to deal with this whether forcing a deal into arbitration, you heard from maria read what nancy pelosi is going to do, i think the bigger question is not just what happens in in the house but really what happens in the senate, where you need two-thirds vote. maria: okay they immediate 60 votes in senate i am just saying workers are considering this. dagen: 60, right. maria: are inflexability attack on dignity they say not just about money. >> they talked about wanting to negotiate this further but notice tightening president biden september claim victory -- i know called it out immediately, that is a lie i know. >> instead of working through

process we are hearing congressman said this drop last night since september they haven't had any time to prepare congress for what language of intervention might be? this is -- dagen: the unions had to vote on it i am not excusing what joe biden did. but this is now in the hands of congress. and they cognitive voted -- it was a very narrow vote. will the and, like it is now in the hands of congress, you got to deal with it if -- congressmen if you want to avert a strike you know what to talk to the rail unions to tell american people, that a 24% pay increase two years of when is retroactive, is not generous enough because they want a few more days of paid sick leave when a large number of workers don't get any paid sick leave? yep you are going to you are going to make a lot of haters in this nation.

they have to provide 48 hours notice to take a personal day you get sick don't know 48 hours. >> you can being take sick days. maria: may not get paid. dagen: you take four days you can take four days of paid -- sick days, and then you accruing paid sick lev. maria: i am surprise joe biden did not handle himself better calls himself union joe amtrak joe. >> you have a very spirited, i am staying out of it -- >> o years,. >> two years to negotiate this the last minute like oh, it is not enough paid sick leave? maria: it is dignity they do not see one sick day as enough i don't know. dagen: one additional sick day, additional sick day you know what 24% pay increase buys me a hell of a lot of dignity! >> the fact on the economy is

going to be severe, if we. >> dagen maybe vote for 30% in [laughter]. >>. dagen: paid sick leave starts after taking four sick days the way it works. >> joe is anybody investing around these worries we are talking about this rail strike potential because this is going to be a huge impact, on the economy. you think we are weak now? wait till rails go out of business. >> people, interesting, we're seeing markets, you know seeing markets actually respond relatively -- normal particularly in some risk categories today, of course, we're seeing a big hit in the cloud stocks, but otherwise we saw, areas, for example, some riskiest chinese adl's one of the best months in years some return to markets largely on narrative inflation, no question about it, the rail

strike if it happens will bring the economy to he knees going to draw gdp down see real problems with continued supply -- >> you want to get he is fired up even more are you suggesting we buy chinese adrs? no, no not at all no, no, no i am not no, no not at all, and stay away but we've got to -- not at all i am not buying it, but there was a point i am making that there is return of risk capital some could be for all we know a transfer of other risk capital i would consider akin to chinese adrs crypto some may be -- one risk category to another i don't that could happen i am merely saying that we're seeing return to some risk categories, i think the -- the tech stocks u.s. could be one of those areas that is interesting narrative, the way that inflation is coming down, and has gotten hurt when

inflation -- well the narrative can when inflation comes down helpful i think the bad pivot 50 basis point already been you know is expected by many going to come up with 50 basis points may scale back, already, fairly closer while we're going to see in 2023 as bad as many people economy to be with gdp slowing down, we are going to see, a lot of we are going to see unemployment stay relatively muted because again we've got 10 to 20 million baby boomers would like to retire can't because inflation has been hire because market is hurt portfolios. >> if other thing. >> i mean the fed now suggested that maybe you know are there going to slow downsize of the rate hikes nobody said their stopping right hikes anytime soon a market that is up in nonmonth of november. >> i mentioned i may be in

minority i think we're having a christmas rally i think after december 15 market anticipating some, 50 basis points i think may signal next year going to scale back even more, i think we i think we are positioned very well, i again i know i am minority opinion in this group but i think a christmas rally i really do. maria: i never said -- don't dpp christmas rally. dagen: i never underestimate the recklessness of intoxication over the holidays. >> this is interesting because powell is gets up there, you know every few week talks, tough talks tough markets just i don't think buy if it we see end of year rally because markets think whatever powell says today he doesn't mean it how does fed operate on the basis of zero credibility whether they can't to get tough. >> you raise interesting point i that i couple setbacks i

would have anticipated when cpi came in, the last couple readings it would have gone you know even more, the last read first one good. prior to that we had hiccups, with opec other things, we other issues, that were affecting the markets i think but for opec but for some other things oil has come down many commodity prices have come down china scaled back in terms of their production with covid other things, so we are going to see you know skwlenl speaking prices have come down. as a result we are going to see inflation particularly with housing, we all know a lagging indicator when cpi comes way down if housing starts dropping, in if cpi we could have cpi dropping well below 5%, 2% or below, housing perhaps negative. >> the question i want to pose to joe joe you have been ranked one of the leading

economists on wall street a long time do you believe inflation peaked with all dagen has been talking about packages where is inflation in 23. >> price level very high gas prices, under president trump averaged 2 dollars, 2.50 got to five plus under biden if they go back to fury or four still up substantially from where they were when they started, inflation like that as well so, yes, growth in inflation is peak, but the price level remain high probably higher than where it was six, seven months ago. >> issue has been food look at list fuel oil up 68% year-over-year with margarine up 47% eggs 43% looirl fares 43%, it is not up 7.-- dagen: so interesting, to see how businesses particularly restaurants have been coping

with increase in food prices, this is -- just anecdotal. but i ordered an omelet when i was at my niece's wedding, it showed up, it was more like a weird egg cra te maybe made with one jumbo egg instead of three i am not joking one egg i am like held up my brother said omelet. >> he said omelet when inflation is 40-year high or another restaurant limited number of toppings you can get on said omelet. >> you gotted to do what you got to do. >> inflation, without going down the rabbit hole alan greenspan wanted to put spending did it saying inflation was overstated. maria: that is integrate thank you, everybody joel, ashley: good morning, maria, great panel discussion. good morning, everyone. i'm ashley webster in today for stuary varney.