tv Making Money With Charles Payne FOX Business December 7, 2022 2:00pm-3:00pm EST
neil: all right, we're trying to avoid a fifth day of losses pretty good for the dow in and out of positive territory, but i know a guy who can submit the deal in the next hour. set the stage, charles payne. hey, charles. charles: it's called the cp effect we'll put it to the test today, for sure, good afternoon i'm charles payne this is "making money" breaking right now, stocks wavering but things a lot of things lurking beneath the surface right, the intertwining of bonds and stocks that's beginning to
unravel. meanwhile blackstone limiting again the redemptions from yet another fund and really, should we be rooting for a fed pivot. all those things we'll discuss we have bob doll, lance roberts and phil blancato and also sylvia jablonski. and aaron judge thing in pinstripes folks, the new york yankees fan breathing a sigh of relief but that might send thousands of young men out of the labor force. i know it sounds weird but the fed says it's true. judy shelton says something else she will be here at 2:25 and my takeaway on universities making more money that's not the right kind of math. you don't have to go to school to know somethings wrong with that. all that and so much more on " making money." charles: so a lot of odd things are happening in the market this week. the intertwining of bonds and
stocks is beginning to unravel all of a sudden and equities are getting pummeled but at the same time, bonds are catching a bid. remember they were turning in tandem for most of the year. it's like one of those movies the script where the characters body goes through some kind of crazy transformation and then begins to revert back and it's all over. you know, it's happening within the equity market itself. here is what's happening. you know those mega cap stocks we talk about all the time. let's talk about the big four, apple, microsoft, amazon and google. they were 22% of the overall market, overall s&p. they're down right now to 18%, and they are trading at four times. the rest of the market you could see trading a lot lower. still, of course they cast this very dark shadow and they skew what the market is doing. the fact though is the real value right here this is 496 other stocks, they are trading at two times enterprise value to sales versus four times for the mega cap stocks.
this is really really good news. that means there's hidden value in this market, a lot of hidden value. i mentioned the 10-year yield. the curve is becoming more pronounced every single day. take a look at this where we are right now with the 10 and two- year yield. you've got to go all the way back to 1981. hasn't been this deeply inverted since then and by the way speaking of bonds, right. the stress bonds and loans, they are beginning to really really spike. look at this , these are your test researcher bonds, loans, and the trillions of dollars, we're not at the peak of the pandemic just quite yet but we're starting to lift off there not a good sign and then of course there are weird things going on. someone has to explain this to me. blackstone, private credit funds , hit redemption limits. now remember, last week, they halted or slowed down redemptions and so you have two in a row. this is our huge fund. i will say moments ago the blackstone ceo spoke about this. he says that he finds concerns
about this whole thing baffling. baffling. i don't know. i think as a legitimate concern. joining me now, let's bring in cross mark global cio bob doll. bob, you know, you were cautious before a lot of folks about this market. you've been right about that, but it has shown signs although every time it looks like it might be ready to lift off, something smacks it down again. >> no question, charles. look, when the bond market has been behaving itself, stocks have had a rally, until now. you point out an important change. what's happening now in my view is people are concerned about the economy and if the economy weakens, that's good news for bonds but it's not good news for stocks because we have to worry about earnings, so i think we're shifting from its all about valuations, which are the compression in the first half of the year to now what are earnings going to be and people are raising questions. charles: so bob, i've got the 10 -year yield of course. we saw where it spiked up and
its been coming down right? the fact today it got under 3.5. this was supposed to be a buy signal. the fact that it hasn't been for equity investors, is it a sell signal or just sort of something to be very aware? >> i think be very aware. stocks and bonds aren't always correlated in a positive way, and when you get this period of weakness in the economy, and that's what people are debating. we got lulled into or a lot of people did about a soft landing, and i think the markets saying not so fast. you talk about the significant inversion of the yield curve. that's a pretty good lead indicator for a recession so the probability of recession in 2023 is higher than 50% and if that's the case, earnings are a risk. charles: bob, i was reading your note and it looks like you're looking for just sort of a sideways market for all of 2023 that's, you know, you used to be the most successful, now everyone is going to be like oh, that's bob don't worry about it.
>> [laughter] within that you can have massive moves. smart has not gone much of anywhere since june 30 but traveled thousands of dow points to get there, so on lots of weakness, you do some buying. on lots of strength, you do some trimming, and i think it's going to be that kind of market until we have a better sense of where things are going. the fed, inflation, recession, yes or no. where are earnings going? these are the uncertainties out there and the market is kind of stuck. charles: i appreciate your guidance and you've been calling this right for a long time. thanks a lot, bob. and by the way, if i go to the barbecue, i'm going to be sitting next to you anyway. i'm going to try to share ribs with you, all right i want to bring in now, ria advisor cio lance robertson. lance let's pick-up on that because you put out a great chart. you always put out these amazing charts. i don't know for those who aren't following lance on twitter it's a must-follow.
it's a little noisy. i'm going to walk through it just for the audience first and then i want to ask you about this. essentially, we keep talking about a fed pivot, right? please, please stop it. go back to the old days when you were accommodative and cutting but here is the thing. these pivots initially are associated with the market going down. look at these moves. fed pivot down 48. fed pivot down 27. fed pivot down 15. i mean, you kind of say golly, what are we really cheering for a fed pivot for , so should we be calling or hoping that the fed puts the brakes on? >> well, you know, ultimately the answer is yes, right? but here is the problem charles and this is the one thing i think the markets continue to get wrong this year, and you and i have been talking about these rallies that we're going to get , selling to the rallies, because all of this idea is that the feds going to cut rates or they are going to slowdown rate hikes. well that's what we rallied back last week, jerome powell says hey we're going to slowdown rate hikes markets up 3%.
he didn't say he was going to cut rates or drop rates back to zero or restart qe. that's the pivot, and the only time they will do that is when and you just mentioned it at your opening talking about credit spreads, these private equity funds that are limiting redemptions. those are the first cracks of what we call financial in stability and that's when the fed will ultimately start to pivot. that's not good for stocks initially. when rates get to zero, that's when it's good for stocks again. charles: isn't that part of the irony then? we know that the fed is trying to break things and once they've broken enough things, we've got to live with that damage for a minute and that damage is reflected in these numbers again down 27%, down 15% down 51%. we've got to live with those , and i do want to also point out though the short-lived we come down 51% and then turnaround down 58% and we turnaround, down 35% and turnaround, so to your
point, it's a gut punch, and that's the one you start to buy. absolutely. look and bob doll just summed this up really well just a second ago talking about you sell into these rallies, you buy deep oversold weakness. the trick with those big declines at 30, 40, 50% is surviving the decline. and not panic selling at the bottom, but that's why if you sell these rallies, raise some cash, manage your risk a little bit, these declines aren't as painful and you aren't forced into making bad emotional decisions that lead to bad results down the road. charles: you know, when bob was talking about buying the dip, selling the rip or the mini-rip s, i didn't get a chance to ask, where would you be focused? in other words, because a lot of folks are coming on and have gotten very defensive, you know, two years ago everyone was buying microsoft on dips. right now people are buying the most boring company in the world on dips. is that what you focus on? what are you buying on these dip s right now? >> well so right now, we've had
a nice rally from the september 27 lows when we wrote a short squeeze was coming now, we're starting to actually take money off the table, but when we get to the next low wherever that is i would actually be looking at some of these beaten down growth stocks that the can grow earnings in a disinflationary environment. if bob was right that means lower earnings, disinflation in the economy which is what the fed wants that's what technology stocks, good growth companies with strong balance sheets, that's where they perform a lot better. charles: right. all right lance, like bob, you have really been amazing. we really appreciate all your work and your amazing charts. thanks a lot, buddy see you soon >> thank you. charles: i'll bring in market strategist phil blancato. phil i want to start with the banks because you've talked on and off in the past about banks and i have to ask you specifically about this blackstone situation.
now the ceo just about an hour ago saying he doesn't even understand why people are worried. well, they manage trillions of dollars and somehow we can't get our money. you know the old commercial it's my money and i need it now. this is what i'm talking about folks. blackstone investments, how rich are they? and real estate 319 billion, private equity 283 billion, in hedge fund solutions 79 billion, and credits and insurance $269 billion. this is like a trillion dollars and, you know, i can't get redemptions? i shouldn't be worried? what are we baffled, why is he baffled? i'm baffled that he's baffled, help me out here. >> well they created something called an interval fund meaning you can only get your money on intervals. when folks go into this they have to sign up and get a really clear disclosure document that says there's gates. they are allowed to put limitations when too many people try at once because the underlying asset is ill liquid building, so this is kind
of a weird fund. it's not a private equity fund where you never get out, it's in between the two and that's why he's baffling. it was designed to say if you're willing to take the risk of being somewhat ill-liquid fund just be cautious you may not be let out and the reason why you can't be let out interest rates are skyrocketing, making less money, there's pressure on corporate real estate people want to get their money out and suddenly everyone is running to the exit and they are stopping them from getting out. charles: i don't know, you say now you can't leave, got pretty ugly. okay? >> [laughter] charles: so simply, you know, blackstone is saying now you can't leave. you know? now what happens to the investor >> it is a sign there's pressure. there's a sign they are losing money in the fund. not cutting their dividend which is critical. they aren't showing weakness yet but it means you're stuck. once you're in these things, you're not getting out for a long time until there's pressure off this marketplace so now you took the risk of being in a liquid asset, one of the things
bad about this is the average investor i bet didn't understand this , thinking they could get their money out and they just aren't and that's the problem. not good explaining what it is. but don't look at this , go ahead. charles: i'm just saying it's for high net worth individuals but every high net worth person is not sophisticated let's be honest about that right so let me just shift gears a little bit because bank of america, credit strategists are calling for a baby bull market and the credit space 5.5-6% for investment grade, then high yield maybe 7.5 % then they say the big rip coming later in the second half of the year. what are you modeling overall for this market in 2023? >> i'll give a good example. you talked about bonds today. prior to the folks on your show. why wouldn't you add 20-plus u.s. treasury? if rates go down as much as i think they go and we end up below 2% or 2.25% on the 10 year by the end of next year you can earn as much as 20% on your
bond portfolio so the points made by bank of america are spot -on. the economy slows where do you want to be in high-quality bonds , even high yield paying 8% dividend are both going to rally in prices as interest rates fall and to me the stock market is still cheap but i don't think you could play the highs and lows. it's going to be volatile but if you buy big dividend stocks, buy jpmorgan. it's different in block stone you're earning a big dividend and they get paid on cash. every time the fed hikes rates they make more money so if you go by caterpillar, john deere, cost corks bank of america, jpmorgan, you'll ride the wave of opportunity but paid to wait around. go long on your bonds, shift to long duration on your bonds add that 20 year treasury bet and you'll do well next year. charles: phil love it, man. we appreciate it. talk to you again real soon. all right, coming up, fed planning to shrink its balance sheet by a whopping 3 trillion by 2025, yeah, right. we're going to talk to a fed critic and one of the best economists on the planet judy
shelton about that and something really intriguing about young men leaving the workforce, but first, some key investment themes for 2023. sylvia blankosky is coming right up. with my hectic life you'd think retirement would be the last thing on my mind. hey mom, can i go play video games? sure, after homework. thankfully, voya provides comprehensive solutions and shows me how to get the most out of my workplace benefits. what's the wifi password again? here you go. cool. thanks. no problem. voya helps me feel like i've got it all under control. because i do. oh she is good. voya. well planned. well invested. well protected. the all-electric 2023 chevy bolt euv.
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charles: you know, everybodies familiar with the notion of a 20 -year overnight success story. you know, someone that becomes famous and seems like it's all of a sudden they have been working behind the scenes for like decades. the same thing is true for technologies that will always ultimately change our lives from idea to everyday use, can take several decades. joining me defiance etf ceo sylvia jablonski. i want to start with some of the things you like and hydrogen is one. we know its shown promise. i think i bought the first time like 30 years ago or something. they were using it in the space, one of the space shuttles like the arm and popped, it went down , popped and went down, we know it's showing serious promise and you think maybe now is the time to finally live up to the hype.
>> yeah, hi, charles, great to see you. charles: you too. >> i think now is the time to invest in a lot of stocks and the reason for that is because everything essentially high growth and further out in futuristic has been hammered in this market because of inflation and interest rates, so just in general my view that value creation happens when markets fall and markets are sort of difficult, well off two-week highs holds true for hydrogen but hydrogen has become more practical too so you now have the technology to harness it, the inflation reduction act, you have, you know, global countries going carbon neutral by 2050 used to power automobiles, airplanes, amazon factory, microsoft data centers. it's an actual efficient energy resource and we see what the issues we have are with energy, oil & gas not going to replace it but you do need to think of alternative solution. it's completely plentiful in the earth and i think that going to a greater solution that shows promise is the direction that researchers, companies like shell, for example, are going to
invest in and we'll see that play out in the next five to 10 years. charles: to your point the clock is ticking. its gotten smaller, billions of dollars being thrown at it and we do have power and fuel cells is just a couple in the space you like. let's move on to the broader issue of technology because you know, obviously it's a wide net. 2023 you think though will be pretty good. look at some of these names folks, amazon now 45%, microsoft down 25%, google down 30%. honestly, i don't know that you have to even be a stock market person to say well these companies dominate for the next 100 years and if so, maybe they are buys right, sylvia? >> yeah, absolutely. you know, again, they look pitiful right? the nasdaq is down 30% off of its 52-week highs year-to-date actually, some of these stocks are down 45% in the case of amazon, some of them are 25-30%, microsoft, google but a lot of things are going to happen. we need to innovate in order to continue growing building out artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, cybersecurity , cloud security,
you know, enterprise spend is down in the mid-term because of what's going on in the market but companies have to continue to spend. there aren't enough workers to fill the jobs that are out there to be filled. there are major supply chain issues that became over the lase companies are at sort of the forefront of developing all of it, but think about, you know , what we're investing in. data integrity, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, 5g. all of these things matter and the next decade or two will be key for tech and again, value creation happens when stocks are knocked off their pedestal, not at 52-week highs so if you aren't retiring for the next five years or young especially, dollar cost average all day. charles: that's me the young part. of course, we always look back at the warren buffett, to say gosh, man, if i could have done what he did, you're saying now is your chance.
i've got 30 seconds but real quick. >> this is what he did. charles: you're not going to make a lot of friends but you're shorting crypto. deny -- defiance has a new etf. does it work so when crypto goes down the i-bid goes up? >> yeah, so it's up 20% year-to-date, past performance on future results of course but what it does is shorts the companies that are most related to crypto, so coinbase, robinhood, galaxy, micro strategy, the companies suffer ing now because of ftx, luna, and the price of bitcoin, but let me make it clear. i am fully bullish on the long term views, long term performance of blockchain digital assets, in the short-term you want to generate output? sometimes short funds actually do work. charles: oh, yeah sometimes i think it's an understatement right now being modest. sylvia its been too long thank you very much hope to see you again soon. >> thanks charles. charles: folks coming up we are sharing key market takeaways and
why he is actually overweight financials but first aaron judge just agreed to a massive noon year contract and according to folks at the boston fed this could actually have young men leaving the workforce. we'll connect the dots and more importantly, find out if it's really true. famed economist judy shelton, right after this. ♪ hit me with your best shot, hit me with your best shot, fire away ♪ the refrigerator is greg's happy place. my kids eat. but i finally figured it out. we can get all that we need and then a little bit more at walmart.
every business cycle since world war ii had call it a fed policy normalization related correction , long-winded way of saying typically there's a pretty good risk off event when the fed starts tightening policy last cycle during the qe era we had eight of them. the two biggest you'll recall were 2011 at the end of qe 2 and 2018, the so-called qt crash when the fed was shrinking their balance sheet. we thought those are about 20%. that was for us, the outer limits of what was likely to happen last year but of course, we went down more than that, 25 or so percent, but the broad point of all of that is, none of those were really terminal for the business cycle. none of those meant we were going in recession. they were fed-related risk-off events that caused massive compression in valuation and, you know, bonds and stocks to go down simultaneously, so at the end of all of what we went through this year, that's what we think happened. not the stock market telling us
we're about to fall off an economic cliff. charles: but what about commentators who say that's the exact goal of jay powell. you know, you always hear they are breaking things or they are going to break things and what really is unnerving about it is in discriminate so it's not enough that the housing market appears to be imploding and we see cracks in manufacturing, but they are going to have this mal lot until they break more things and all of a sudden wake up and have an epiphany maybe they broke enough. >> i have two thoughts about that, charles. it's a great question. the first is that they did start to break some things. the morning after the september meeting when they went 75 and had that really hawkish dot plot , the japanese had to intervene on behalf of their currency. we had a flash crash in the pound the following sunday night, and that monday, the mortgage market went into absolute free fall. that, for me, is the real catalyst for why they are about to slow the process down, but you have to keep in mind, going back to the whole volcker regime
, it took a decade of inflation to create the political environment that made volcker possible, and part of that political environment was a much better fiscal outlook and more sustainable fiscal policy brought in under reagan. we're nowhere close to that, so my suspicion is the unemployment rate goes through 4%, and all those new throughout the federal reserve system are going to be pushing powell hard, in fact, that looks to already be started , to slow the process and even stop the process and pause, and so that has a lot to do with why we're optimistic for the first half of 2023. charles: i think there's speculation having to read outloud about lag effects was the faction of the fed, you're describing brainard and others. i've got a minute to go then, ba rry. so the economy, recession, fed watch how are you modeling this for 2023? what are you thinking that may happen for next year? >> so the overarching theme for the first half of the year
is that the path from 9% cpi to 4% is very clear. goods prices are coming down. housing prices are coming down albeit with a lag in those measures as powell described last week so that period will be a good period for stocks and bonds, and that will be very similar to the beginning of 1995 so i've been saying we're going to party like it's 1995 but then around mid- year we think inflation is going to stall at four and the fed may have to restart the process albeit at a slower pace so the second half will not look like the second half of 1995 so first half of the year, unlike my friend bob dog is going to be pretty good but second half, i'd be more in line with bob's floundering for the rest of the year call. charles: barry, very precise, very very precise. i wish we had more time. i love talking to you thank you very much we appreciate it. >> thanks charles. charles: coming up folks my takeaway on how college enrollment has been declining since 2012 but tuitions have been rising. how is that even possible?
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charles: major breaking news. aaron judge has re-signed with the new york yankees for $360 million over nine years he'll be the highest paid position player in major league baseball. according to a new report from the boston fed, this news might actually send thousands of young men out of the labor market. i'll explain, but you know, all eyes have been on the federal reserve as wall street braces for the next rate hike and potentially more confirmation from powell that maybe inflation is heading lower. to help unpack all this independent institute
senior fellow judy shelton and judy, let's just start with this whole recession chatter. it's growing louder, bond curve inversions deepening, big businesses now bracing for a slower economy, but it does seem that the deciding factor, obviously, it gets always gets back to the federal reserve and is powell too, you know, too afraid to markets with any hints that they're doing their job. it seems like he's reluctant to take any victory lapse and that is putting more pressure on the market. > well, chairman powell is very conscience of the impact of his words, and i think that he considers forward guidance to be a valuable tool, and for him, he expects forward guidance to be a self-fulfilling prophecy so he thought markets were cheering up , he probably thinks they are misinterpreting his resolve. charles: that resolve though, i think the guessing game on wall street is just how far he'll go,
right? we know the rhetoric and many people, you know, i think this is jay powell 3.0. i'm not sure how many iterations you've seen, so many people are confused into how far he will go that makes plotting and planning anything whether it's investing or even business pretty tough. >> i think it's a shame, actually, that we're all so addicted to the latest nuanced statement from chairman powell or any monetary official. i would really like to have investment made on the basis of productive opportunities, but it turns out that not wanting to fight the fed seems to be the predominant strategy, if you're a market investor. charles: i mean, and listen. i share exactly what you're saying. it's a shame. let me ask you about a piece i read last week it was in bloomberg that the current curve inversion suggests that once the fed is done hiking they will have to cut 500 basis points, we're talking about getting back to zero, does that
sound like something that could actually come to fruition? >> i mean, that would just tell you about the problem of erratic monetary policy and i've always thought that it seems odd for federal reserve officials to indicate that they need to raise rates so that they can drop them again. it's kind of the logic that's put forward for having perpetual 2% inflation as their target because they think policy space is more important than the rest of us having reliable money, that we can count on. charles: i want to ask you something -- >> they want room to maneuver. charles: yeah, again i won't ask you this time but next time we'll get to the history of why 2% became the magical number but i read something and i couldn't wait to ask you the boston fed published this massive study the decline in labor participation among men 25-50,
they say that debt is driven mostly by high school men, mostly white high school men who just have high school diplomas watching their college grad peer s get higher raises and as they move up and get these raises, they are so discouraged that they dropout of the labor force. now, we do no one thing. this same cohort right now, one out of nine, i think, is out of the labor force. if you go back to the 50s it was one out of 50 so something is going on here. does the boston fed have a right >> i don't buy that approach. i don't think it's a psychological impact. i don't think americans recent the success of others, and there's actually very strong demand at all levels of education, and all levels of skilled work, so everybody can be feeling pretty proud of their opportunity to forge the best wage agreement they can get. i think the problem is that people are very logical and
rational, and if somebody in the bottom quintile, that lowest 20% in terms of income, if they find that they could make as much from government transfer payments as they do from working , then i think they figure very logically, why should i work? charles: right. >> i think that's very demoralizing for the ones who do work who also have to pay taxes on what they earn. they have to work their heads off, and then they see people maybe making a little bit lessor who dropout, and through everything from food stamps to child tax credits to other refundable credits, to medicare, medicaid, housing subsidies, and we certainly saw that during covid, the expanded unemployment insurance and the stimulus checks made it very worthwhile for people to do nothing. the government was effectively paying them for not working, and in a situation where inflation
is a matter of not having enough supply to meet demand, you can see why that's not a very good policy to pursue on the part of our government. charles: absolutely and sadly, it's actually getting worse. they are taking that same approach and taking it up the economic food chain seduce more people into what i think is a track. judy, thank you so much always appreciate having these conversations with you. all right, so, -- >> great to see you charles. charles: folks, the market feels like it's marking time today, right? listen there are a couple of known knowns. the down-trend is firmly intact and key potential breakout points failed and every time they fail the market sees this emotional selling. i want to bring in kaltbaum capital management gary kaltbaum listen for all of the hand ring ing one thing we can't say about this route for 2022, its been orderly. there's not a lot of spikes to the downside, right? you could see the 50-day moving average weaving in and out, its
been very very orderly and sort of i think someone would say maybe that's one of the problems maybe we needed a few spikes to the downside, so here we are again, in sort of a calm before the next storm. we just don't know what it is. >> first, don't tell that to people who own carvana stock. i could tell you that. charles: [laughter] >> yeah. bear markets usually, believe it or not, have ebbs and flows. they drop, they rally up towards the northeast and then they drop again. you showed it. they rally into a declining 50 day moving average, a little technical analysis until they, you know, bottom out and turn up and that's what you've seen in most of the indices over the last six, seven weeks. the issue is is what's been turning up. the nasdaq and nasdaq 100 can't even get going. it's amazing to watch. its been very dow-related and lower beta stuff and typically, i want to see the opposite. i want to see risk-on.
i want to see risk appetite and so far the opposite and that's what worries me going into next year. charles: by the way speaking of things that worry you, great post, this is monday, regionals, kre, breaking down bigger financials, breaking down , rolling over, lots right now and so this is what happened you posted that and then, this is what you saw and this is what's happened since then. what's going on here? i mean, is this significant for the market? is this significant for the economy? is there a message here beyond just more sellers than buyers? >> yeah, i think so, and i was on your show monday stating also , when short-term yields come down, and long term yields go up, where's the margins for regional banks as well as financial companies? they're basically gone on many avenues and i think that's what you're starting to see right here and they weren't just coming after the regionals and some of the big banks and some of the lenders like a capital
one. i saw some real big institutional selling. this is the real smart money saying get me the heck out of the way, and now you're seeing and by the way god bless bob doll who nailed it earlier and now you're seeing for the first time since last november interest rates tanking and the market not skyrocketing and that's something to watch also. it may be quite telling again as we head into the new year about where the economies heading and where earnings are heading. charles: you know, i urged everyone to follow lance on twitter. they got to follow you too, my man. i'm surprised they didn't say anything about aaron judge. i lost a bet by the way in the morning meeting i said gary is going to say something about that so you cost me 10 bucks. >> nobody signed me the 360 million bucks today, charles. charles: no, no. >> that's the best thing i can tell you. charles: here is the moral of the story he turned down $200 million, he knew his value and went out there and got it. that's the moral for everyone. gary thanks a lot my man, talk to you real soon. coming up my takeaway on college
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charles: all right breaking news folks. sam bankman-fried and the ftx scandal, wonder-boy, former wonder-boy shall we say now hired a high profile defense attorney, mark cohen, who by the way most recently represented ghislaine maxell in that sex trafficking trial. here to talk about this in just the broad investing world, genevive roch-decter. first, it seems to me to suggest he knows now. these are going to be criminal charges eventually coming his way. >> yeah, i think sam is very scared. i think his apology tour did not go as planned. he did the new york times deal book summit, good morning america, and then where i really found him incriminating is on the twitter spaces. now that's where you had folks that really understand the crypto space and asked him pointed questions. i saw him, i heard sorry contradict himself a few times, and so i be very concerned if i
was him. charles: i just, this is maybe he should have hired this lawyer like two weeks ago, because he's made every mistake in the book. >> i thought maybe he had some sort of plan by doing this tour, but it just turns out that this is the biggest thing he could have ever done because it's all in the public record now, and i don't know how this is going to holdup for him in court. it's going to be very bad. charles: it's already bad for him and other people and to that point you actually ieintervwed kevino'leary at the conference today. we'll take a listen to some of that. >> we all look like idiots, okay? let's call it what it is. we all have egg on our faces, but this is not the end of the story. follow the path of the money. in my face, i'm going to find out where every cent of mine went. charles: i'm very skeptical. you know? and when kevin o'leary says we, forget about we. we're talking about you, my man,
you. the investment professional paid to get other people to use this , and what bothers me a lot about him and even anthony some of the tweets i saw. they feel sorry for themselves. oh, i lost a lot of money. no one gives a damn how much you lost. if someone says someone is saying this is good, i'm going to give them all of my hard- earned money. not money extra money, excess money. all of it. you know what scaramucci was doing, again raising his profile they helped this guy commit fraud, not necessarily knowingly but there's no way they should be feeling sorry for themselves. they look pitiful. what was going on? >> it looked like they were going to cry and for themselves there's a standard of care needed here and the due diligence with celebrities and high profile people and kevin o' leary, i was shocked. he told me after the facts came out from the bankruptcy proceedings that say alameda research and ftx from inception to the end of 2021 remember this was the biggest bull market in crypto, they lost money.
they lost money potentially using other people's money. i don't know how much bigger of an advantage you can have doing that and kevin says i'd still invest in him. charles: i think that's a defense mechanism, he sincerely believed in the product. what are you doing we have a minute to go. you are becoming a superstar, people love you, they follow you you've got a major growing. your letter is growing, in 30 seconds tell us what you're doing. >> okay, long term always bull ish. medium term, 20 months, 24 months out i'm still bullish. six-to-12 not so bullish okay? i'm defensive. 20% or less of my portfolio is in privates but i'm not going over that. i'm keeping the risk low. 10% of my portfolio is at a cash yield etf. i'm getting some income because cash is not trash anymore. and i'm focused on large cap stocks that do well in an environment like we are in right now, like waste management , does well in a recession or not, so large cap liquid dividend paying. charles: real quick you sold all your crypto. ever plan buying it back? >> i do for a tax loss and i
was concerned about the custodian that i put the assets in. i'm going to be self-custodying going forward. charles: great stuff i'm so proud of you. great, great stuff. >> thank you so much. charles: coming up folks, college enrollment is in free fall, tuitions are skyrocketing. in college they tell you that's a bad deal. i'll tell you why it's even worse in my takeaway. get refunds.com powered by innovation refunds can help your business get a payroll tax refund, even if you got ppp and it only takes eight minutes to qualify. i went on their website, uploaded everything, and i was blown away by what they could do. getrefunds.com has helped businesses get over a billion dollars and we can help your business too. qualify your business for a big refund in eight minutes. go to getrefunds.com to get started. powered by innovation refunds.
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charles: so we know america has a whole bunch of major problems going on including student loan debt well north of $1.5 trillion and many believe the government and non-college grads should be paying for that. here is the rub folks. college enrollment has dropped by 3.1 million students in the past decade. 3 million. annual tuition in that same time up almost $7 billion. now, this could only happen because government interference, right? when president obama kicked out the middleman that used to approve these college loans, something that was dumb, you didn't get the loan. he did it to make the system more fair. of course it opened the flood gates. tuition costs erupted. these campuses got big and beautiful, and it was always implied that the next democratic president will cover the tab. meanwhile, harvard employed 7,000 full time administrators slightly fewer than the under grad population, and some of the
things they do will blow your mind. i was just reading there's one project the endless academic initiative, projects, committees and then in december the faculty of arts and sciences task force, 24 members, six students, nine faculty member, nine administrators produced a 26- page report on diversity so what did the dean do when the dean got the report? they created a new administration post, right? and a new committee. i mean, this thing feeds on itself. here is the thing folks. take a look at this. this is what you do learn in school. when demand decreases it usually triggers a decline in prices and quantity. so over the years, only thing i've seen, cigarettes and postage stamps where the prices have gone up as they were a sharp decline in demand. both of those things are moving towards obsolesence. i don't think that happens in higher education but we've got to stop this. it is madness. i'm sure cheryl would agree. >> cheryl: i agree with everything you just said and so much more. thank you charles. all right we're going to start with the fox market alert righ
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