it all the bottom line exactly who you've been your entire career, the bottom line. get to what is most important. dagen: i can't wait to -- sean and i before we met in person, was somebody that i knew that could rib and engage with, he would give it back. as -- as good as he would take it. we are so excited to work together, oh, also, there is the big money show going to be 1 pm that is with brian brenberg jackie deangelis love them tailor riggs, from bloomberg 1:00 pm every day elizabeth mcdonald to 5:00 pm a shout-out i love all of them. maria: congratulations to all, we got a great new lineup coming to fox business, we still have a few weeks with dagen here, i thank you so much jay bless you.

maria: are incredible expertise new show lineup begins january 23 airs 6 pm bottom line with dagen, sean will be a must watch destination, and bike money featuring brian jackie taylor riggs, welcome to fox business kicking off a 1:00 pm we will be right back next hour of "mornings with maria" begins right now. . >> good tuesday morning thanks very much for joining us this morning i am maria bartiromo. it is tuesday, december 13, top stories right now 8:00 a.m. on the button on the east coast, sam bankman-fried, he arrested in bahamas just hours before he was scheduled to testify before the house financial services committee, former ftx ceo likely to request extradition, as sec announces it will be charging sam bankman-fried with

defrauding investors wire if you had a other charges, all details right here coming up. today, inflation data and final fed meeting of the year futures indicating a gain start of trading ahead 56 very important economic report now, 30 minutes away, dow industrials up 231 right now s&p up 26, nasdaq higher by 83 looking to the november consumer price index out 8:30 a.m. eastern this morning, economists expecting a gain 3/10 of a percent month-over-month gain 7.3% year-over-year could be a major market mover. so we've got all-hands-on-deck to break down numbers and give you the full analysis, markets rallying going into this report, federal reserve today beginning two-day meeting today and tomorrow. getting another hike announced likely tomorrow morning 2:150 pm eastern the final hike of the year final meeting of the year fed expected to raise rates a few more times in 2023 but this afternoon wednesday afternoon expecting 50 basis

points hike from fed after that two-day meeting going to hear from european central bank and bank of england they have meetings on thursday, all of this after root rally yesterday as investors look ahead to potentially federal reserve slowing down rate hikes yesterday the close dow industrials up 528 points, 1 1/2% nasdaq up 139, 1 1/4% s&p 500 higher by 56, 1 1/2% energy, technology industrial all led the rally, people are still expecting the economy to weak 9112023, in asia overnight markets mixed hong kong best up two-thirds of a percent shanghai negative so has korea by a fraction, then there is this twitter files part five they reveal staffers assigned to evaluate former president trump's tweets, and concluded did not violate policies at all despite company claiming that he did removing him from platform altogether. musk says it was done quote

under pressure from hundreds of twist employees oidz forces people like michelle obama wand him off platform "mornings with maria" is live right now. >> the securities and exchange commission charges sam bankman-fried with defrauding crypto investors this morning kelly o'grady live with the latest charges. >> good to be with you again maria, this story developing by the hour the latest is that we have those charges filed by sec completely alleges sam bankman-frieding orchestrated a year long scheme to good equity investors, a number of charges diversion of consumer funds to alameda, using commingled funds to make venture investments real estate purchases large political donations a "from a sc chairman gensler the

presidentx operated behind veneer of legitimacy that wasn't just thin it was fraudulent the collapse highlights very real risk that in registered crypto asset trading platforms can pose for investors customers alike last name for shadows how regulators of use this in their case for regulation sec having filed by cftc u.s. attorney's office for southern district york the latter what programmaticed the arrest by bahamian police last night we indictment released, wire fraud conspiracies to commit wire fraud, securities fraud as well as money laundering if indicted on number of counts could face life in prison without prospect of release the question of ex, tradition bahamian authorities confirmed plan to cooperate once a

request is filed they are pursuing their investigation could complicate timing of that extradition slightly, the speed of chafrnlz everyone going it took so long this was pretty quick it takes time to build a case, accounting experts tell me there were complete, this is protest fast. >> this is incredible, we will continue to hear the breaking news developments as moving so fast, kelly thank you joining the conversation all morning long this morning dagen mcdowell, liz peek dagen reaction. dagen: there is so much container to bernie madoff those that the name that everyone throws out. huge fraud bernie madoff died in prison, but very different. and every fraud is -- is unusual and unique. but madoff was -- acting as a money manager. and as a fiduciary so there is

the expectation when people gave their money to bernie madoff, that he was a -- taking care of it. and was acting as a -- not -- as a custodian, managing it for them. there was no expectation of that with sam bankman-fried. at a bare the most this was an exchange. it was noting regulated in the united states it was an offshore exchange, the vast majority of activity that happened was offshore. anyone here in the united states who had their money there, knew that. or expectation was that they knew that. he was not acting as a fiduciary. so when people say oh, bernie madoff the only comparison is well it was a fast allegedly

but no expectation of regulation, of fiduciary duty he was a not a money manager let's be very clear about that, that doesn't make the theft alleged right. but nevertheless, there is a big you know, this is kind what have you were getting into by investing in crypto, knowing that there was no oversight of it. and, and you know that was part of the pitch, the deal down with fiat currencies going to make my millions in crypto. and that's -- that but now you are going to have government regulators figuring out how to rig late it elizabeth warren

-- consumer protection, so she was -- had a lot to say so was a lot of mouth but not a lot of mojo; right? >> liz are there saying he broke is it house s of cards with a whats back-and-forth money moving between ftx and al leda another issue? >> i think becoming clear not a one-time thing that happened right at the end that prompted a bankruptcy filing but in fact that it may have been over a long period of time indeed from the very start of enter prizes money out of customer accounts basically going to prop up that hedge fund my guess is that is a lot of what the fraud charges are all about. i think, dagen is right there was no expectation, of regulation here. but the reality is a lot of people have absolutely no idea what they were buying they don't know what valuation is

propping up any cryptocurrencies i have to say one of the best articles, orderly enough written about this whole scandal came out of new york magazine, basically kind of said the emperor has no clothes not only does this throw into very bright release none of the regulators paying attention no underpinning for what krirns are worth no income stream no guarantee explicit or implicit from any government i think a lot happened here the interesting what do we do going forward there will be regulation, and how does it come out in terms of the investor. maria: was it jim cramer over on cnbc, weeks before collapse asked if this was a jpmorgan of our time?

liz: oops. >> following a a lot of people cramer an investor thought jpmorgan of our time said on air. >>. dagen: he didn't fool me crypto never as asset class which it wasn't, never fooled me i just wanted to lay that out there charlie gasparino reporting the girlfriend who oversaw alameda caroline, has lawyered up with wilma hale will hinge if she cuts a deal with feds, with prosecutors, it will all hinge on her testimony if this eventually goes to trial, because jurors, they will -- they would rather here from witness much easier to understand have an any kind of digital evidence. >> are a quick break coming up markets on o the move looking ahead to inflation data of the

day november consumer price index out in 15 minutes, final federal reserve meeting of the year is about to kick off. in washington. we've got a lot to look to dow industrials up 208. we'll be right back. . ♪ ♪ christmas season ♪ i can see ♪ the them of the ocean, ♪ . it followed me everywhere. so i consolidated it into a low-rate personal loan from sofi. get a personal loan with no fees, low fixed rates, and borrow up to $100k. sofi. get your money right. ♪ ♪ this... is a glimpse into the no-too-distant future of lincoln. ♪ ♪ it's what sanctuary could look like... feel like... sound like... even smell like.

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look at futures indicating a triple-digit move out of the gate dow industrials up 205 about two-thirds of 1% s&p, nasdaq up as we look to november consumer price index out 15 minutes' time economists coupling gain /10 of a percent month-over-month

year-over-year 7.3% joining me he former president ceo of atlanta federal reserve dennis lockhart is here great to see you. thanks very much for being here your expectations for where we are in the economy, inflation, and the fed. first off let's talk growth. what is your estimates in terms of growth this year into 2023? do you believe inflation moderated. >> moderated a little bit but i doubt the report that we see in a few minutes is going to be dramatic in either direction so pretty much more of the same the report will likely be considered benign but not going to show a dramatic shift downward or in all probability upward, as far as growth is concerned i pay attention to my own former colleagues tracking estimate, the gdp now, atlanta fed and most recent reading, was

really quite strong stro, in the fourth quarter, so this is -- economic activity strength fed doesn't desire at the moment looks like we will have momentum going into next year, in terms of growth. maria: yeah, but so many people are expecting things to slow down quite a bit the atlanta fed gdp now tracker has fourth quarter showing growth 3.2% very good number for fourth quarter this year, what happens next year? i mean the fed kicks off final meeting of the year today we are expecting another rate hike, 50 basis points, dennis, as you know. we're looking at four straight 75 basis points hikes say 50 basis points hike tomorrow how much lag is there before higher rates start doing damage if um or start impacting economic growth? so you are talking about, three plus percent growth fourth quarter what is first

second, third quarter look like you can next year in your view. >> well, i think, definitely be much slower than we're seeing in this quarter. as far as concerns, higher rates have some immediate effect, particularly in housing, sometimes in auto sales, but much of the effect is with -- i today reasonable expectation that 2023 will show kind of progressive slowing of the economy. >> i see, so progressive slowing what about a recession talking about quite a bit on this program stephanie pomboy first brought up the idea of a profits recession more than a year ago, over the last year more and more people have been talking about that here is stephanie pomboy, on this program, in the past several months. >> i do think that we will seal a profit recession in large part because of of

demand destruction on the part of consumers already making it harder for companies to passs price increases they are endetouring plenty of anecdotal sneezed said that back in april but many times before that, what does a profit recession feel like on a practical level? >> well, i am going to answer this way, i have long felt that we use the word "recession" too simplistly there are degrees of recession, i like the idea of a sort of hurricane grading of recessions cat 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 cat one recession mild short-lived i think actually, would be accepted by the federal reserve as a way of getting inflation under control but we won't to avoid is a really deep series recession i think at the

moment it doesn't look very likely we are going to see something that severe. >> all right. we want to continue this conversation, we will get numbers about 10 minutes dennis thank you very much dennis lockhart joining us this morning, your morning mover moderna, merck premarket, the companies experientialal melanoma vaccine with merck's cancer drug show promising results in study moderna said drug reduced risk melanoma would return after surgery readduce risk 6 death by 44% stocks soaring moderna up another 8 1/2% merck up two and a third percent last time ceo of moderna on we hawked about rmva medicine having other uses betting on this breakthrough results quick break november consumer price index right after this break stay with us all-hands-on-deck to weigh in.

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>>. >> less a than 5 minutes away from release of the consumer price index economists expecting 3/10 of a percent cfo month over month from from cpi 7.3% increase year-over-year core expectation for -- cpi to be up 6.1% that is when you take out the volatile food and energy jason smith red apple group chairman ceo united refining company chairman ceo, supermarkets chairman and ceo john catsimatidis. >> george mason university senior fellow dave beckworth here, dagen mcdowell and liz peek great to see everybody waiting on very important number markets rallying into it john catsimatidis let me kick off with you your thoughts on inflation, today, as you see it in the

supermarkets. >> prices of supermarket highest they've ever been, and price of diesel fuel still very high. so to get product delivered to the stores, it costs more. the thanksgiving dinner cost highest it has ever been, what happens now, oil is down to the lowest it has been. so a lag factor, so we have to see at what portion the lag factor we're at. with food prices still on the up, oil prices on down, it is going to be interesting how the economists in washington looking at it and the federal reserve has to look forward sometimes versus looking backwards, that is what they've been doing lately looking backwards i think if they hold steady inflation will come under control unless there is a problem in -- in the world.

maria: you know john, one thing that is really compelling the fact talking consumer price index but within that next there are things that are still skyrocketing like pricing of eggs up 43% year-over-year compared to something like a gan of 7% what we're seeing year-over-year jason smith, this is one of those stories where policy really matters. how did we get here? >> a absolutely. maria policy matters. this inflation crisis that joe biden and one party if democrat rule in washington created is going to give ever american a blue christmas for sure. the price of christmas trees have gone up price for presents under christmas trees have gone up to put food on tablecloths on backs, and gasoline in car everything costing more the reason why we are here maria is because, one party democrat rule has spent more than 10 trillion added more than 10 trillion dollars of spending to government,

they have paid able boyd health adults not to work, and put government boot on neck of u.s. energy, those three things right there, is -- is where -- basically resulting where we're in inflation crisis day. >> it is really important to make note of that because it is a situation where political changes everything that is why we are facing 40-year high inflation, all right dagen we are a minute and a half away from number, what are you focused on what is most important dagen. dagen: just you know how much it eases potentially the overall number month-to-month, of course, the core number, gasoline has fallen quite a bit. in the last month, national average is down 53 cents a gallon, to 3.24 cents a gallon, and housing on prices, particularly rents, that is really going to filter through in coming months, into 2023

new rents have already started is to have theening, biggest factor that will keep inflation elevated wages in services sector a large part of the cost in services, that will be important to watch. maria: i am go glad you mentioned rent because liz that has been essentials that are so responsive, food 2350u8 and shelter. liz: no question rent 30% cpi, and that has gone up incredibly fast. thanks partly by the away to fed's bond-buying program the mortgage bond-buying program that only ended, i think in june really insane, but i was talking to john catsimatidis about wages because dagen is totally right going forward there are a lot of goods where prices are coming down, are wages not so much, he said we are about to see that really kick in. maria: we will have that momentarily november cpi request imminent estimates

3/10 of a percent month-over-month, 7.3% year-over-year. cheryl: maria,few things start with month-over-month headline number coming in up 1%, .1%, the estimate .3% weaker than exists expectations, also coming in weaker than expected on headline number year-over-year coming in 7.1%, expectation was 7.3%. as for core, month-over-month, coming in .2%, .2% month-over-month, again, the estimate.3% weaker than expected, year-over-year core the number fed looks at came in 6% on the nose, the expectation was 6.1%, all numbers are lighter, than expected. of real earnings all private workers gain .2%. last year was flat you guys

just talking about wages wanted to throw that out again real, all private workers gainer of .2%, housing jump month to month of 4% food awful jump.5% month-to-month, as far as other things that are in here i'm going to dive into actual report now looks like we did see fall in energy prices energy prices, overall, falling 1.6%, 1.6% month-over-month that is we are expecting that and we did go to report tell you what government is saying about biggest contributors here, basically they are saying next for shelter, and this is once again, what telling us for the month of november, we heard this back in october as well, shelter, the biggest contributor to monthly increases was shelter. however, we did see, the offset from number was big decrease we saw in energy, indices the food index they said that was half a percent

month-to-month. food at home a half percent that is what people people are paying for grocery store to cook, and as far as gasoline, they did see decreases for nat electricity back to you i wanted to give you used cars and trucks that came in, that fell, so prices for used cars, used trucks actually fell 2.9%, down now year-over-year 3.3% for that, apparel a jump month-to-month .2% interesting, because we've seen apparel prices last three months actually falling, that jumped .2%, medical care jump.2% month-over-month, so again those are biggest headlines i can see here, and as far as, electricity utilities, those were down so inflation is slowing, numbers a little bit better than

expected, and fed starts meeting today maria we will see what they say. maria: better than expected sparking massive moves in the market the dow industrials have been up 900 when you just started talking dow industrials now up 760 points yields plummeting the 10-year yield now down in double digits, congressman jason smith john catsimatidis david beckworth, dagen mcdowell, liz peek, reaction to numbers. project development continues the trend we've seen past few months we hope it continues, but within that report there is an area you keep an eye on at least for me the services area that a they grie rapidly last month i believe 6.8% hardest part wages plead into economy the piece hoard toast turn around for the fed i think jay powell competitived last public fent doesn't want to rest on laurels he wants to keep going to keep fighting no

uncertainty about that even though uncertainty where prices maybe going. maria: this is a very important point that you make. liz, inflation has moved from goods to services. because during pandemic we were all buying goods, and that was sending and with all spending out of continuation it was sending prices higher but then after the pandemic people started taking trips services, inflation caught up to services. david meksz a great point on services part of this your reaction. liz: no question i think that trend is going to continue i am a little surprised to that point that apparel prices were not because they've been going down mainly because retaliatory got caught short didn't understand, that consumer spending was going to be as strong as turned out to be, their inventories inadequate restocked people moved as you say from buying goods to going on trips going out to eat, et cetera, so all that discounting showed up

last couple months lower apparel prices i don't know what to make of the fact they are up again except maybe inventories are getting a little bit more back in balance would actually be good news for the industry. >> i mean there is still a lag effect with higher interest rates congressman jason smith so far seen an impact from higher rates on things like housing in recession or autos, from this report used car prices down again, you are talking about elevated levels cpi up 7.1% year-over-year wp how do you stop this reverse this completely. >> you know liz, i mean, maria, sorry i was calculating that, year you know since joe biden's taking taken the oath of office inflation has gone up 14.3%, that is almost two months salary of every hardworking american. and that is that is in a pinch struggling the way we stop

this, is to stop the reckless spending. in three weeks from today, when kevin mccarthy becomes speaker of the house, house republicans will be able to stop this out-of-control stimulus spending we are looking at government not even being funded yet, government finding was supposed to be september 30 we are thee days from government shut downer this friday, because the house democrats senate democrats in white house have spent all their time spending excess stimulus money not funded government to keep lights on that is what has led to highest spike in prices in 40 years that is why people are paying more to put food on table, clothes on backs gasoline in the car what we also need to do make sure able bode healthy cults are working we have to have work requirements for with every programs help wanted signs all

over get able-bodied health adults to work take you can government boot off u.s. energy allow energy independence that will bring up this economy help americans. >> so many great points john catsimatidis you he feel it firsthand in terms of this energy policy. talk to us about the impact of this energy policy on your business and what that has done, to inflation. >> well it caused it is the primary cause of inflation maria, i mean, when energy prices are doubled, and that caused everything else to increase, the transportation cost for food, the price of heating oil for buildings, rents at an all-time high right now because we are unless real estate business, so, my advice to jay powell is give it a pause. don't create another problem in the real estate industry

nationwide, by continuing to raise, interest rates. if we give it a pause, and let things how do british say let things sort themselves out, and if oil prices stay in low 70s, i predicted, then things go right by themselves if he keeps pushing interest rates, you know what happens? we create another problem in the real estate industry. . >> you are speaking the markets language, dagen that is exactly what markets have been hoping for a bit of a pause why we saw 500-point rally yesterday look at 600 point rally at open this morning dagen. dagen: right, the damage has been done, in a lot of ways. that you've already seen the -- the bubble burst in assets, like crypto, and then kind of newfangled cathie wood growth stocks, but you really haven't seen the air come out of housing prices, housing is -- you know, is kind of --

apoplectic so it is frozen, but you have not seen home prices come down. because you don't see a lot of new supply coming on to the market people are not putting homes up for sale, apartments up for sale that is going to happen in the new year potentially rents coming down that will help lower inflation. but this week, you are going to see the fed funds rate by federal reserve get tan to 4 1/2 percent nick was writing how long have powell raise interest rates philadelphia officials are devised a bifurcation win market committee core nation based on print today 6%, they will surely take a pause at 5% only got after this week about half

of a percentage point left to go. maybe just get it done with at the first meeting, in -- the new year. then just stop there. liz peek and i were talking about this a conversation over weekend as well with an investor saying, maybe it is they just tolerate higher inflation, maybe just sit back and say, we're going to, you know -- not -- try to bring inflation down to -- say going to be 3% or 4%. just wait the there. because they don't want to crater the economy but if you lessen to stephanie pomboy the damage has been done in terms of -- in terms of the softening, not softening he go but we're expecting many people, a very deep recession in the new year. maria: um-hmm, cheryl you've got more. cheryl: digging into components of report while you were taublging a sxup things i want to point out dagen was talk rents shelter shelter

number that is still up 7.1% year-over-year for to shelter, that includes rents, primary residences as well as overall shelter component, fuel oils still year-over-year up 65. 7% in winter paying more than 65% higher fuel oil this year versus last year heating oil a couple things airfares year-over-year they dropped .3%, % month-to-month airline fares compared to last year at this time still up 36%. so, there is still some very voluntary troubling pieces in the report and i know you always look at the egg and pulled outry all of that overall still up 7%, year-over-year if you combine meet poultry fish and eggs not as hot as expected today but seeing a lot of pressure on a the american family and so

many important parts of what they are spending on. maria: yeah i mean look you are seeing some things come in, other things stubbornly high david why is it that food has been so hard to move? i mean look at eggs up 49%, year-over-year, in this report, it was 43% the last report so you still have pressure on things like eggs, meet, seafood as cheryl was just saying. this is one of the last men standing if you will in terms of food, and inability to have real movement month-over-month, why is that? >> a unfortunate for sure that is rubber meets road you got to feed yourself your family look at goods portion already seeing some downward pressure in autos, goods, capitalistic market to bear he respond services harder component as i

mentioned earlier if i can go back to shelter i would also note there that maybe overstating things a bit because of onerous equivalent rent includes existing leases are current ones market prices zillow rent following will steeply there is hope there hopeful developments in food going forward as part of bundled of goods can tends to drop fastest. maria: good point, i want to get your take on rates david look at 10-year right now talking about, the yield on 10-year now dropping below 3 1/2%, all the way off to 4 1/2%, at the peek, of course, we know the fed is continuing to raise rates, is this -- does this jive what what you are expecting 10-year yield down almost 15 basis points right now. >> yes, i base off he inverted

yield curve market expecting this sometime i as well but fed has been tightening aggressively as we mentioned over 4% by the time year is up the most rapid increase since early '80s having most nation since early '80s as well the lag effect i think the fed is focused on the service part of the index when is important but also important to know that tends to lag the rest of the economy as your other guest mentioned fed maybe looking in rearview mirror as it guides rates may hit a bump in the road not see it that would be recession i do worry fed isn't as forward-looking as it could be i any market is telling with us the 10-year yield today. >> liz. liz: i think an xfactor here should be watched going forward is energy prices. in november a sharp sell-off in oil, and also in gasoline. and that is reversing itself on expectations, that china

may begin to grow again, i mean china has been a big factor, in swaying energy markets and you know who knows whether in fact china's rebound is going to be significant but that is why oil prices starting to move up again. i want to go back to wages because underneath all this data the one thing that persists will persist is wage increased wage demands we are seeing in union negotiations, again i asked john catsimatidis what he thought, his workers were going to be asking for, the truth is we haven't yet seen the roll threw of wage demands coming out of unions in reaction to have inflation over the last year the reason we have a rail worker problem is they wnt happy when with what was considered generous settlement going forward everybody wants more money to deal with nation, they've already experienced, that is what the fed is going to struggling with next year. >> yeah they should, because

jason when you take a look at wage growth versus inflation growth you are still looking at people having an inability to feel that raise they got once because, wages are up 5% or so, but inflation is up 7.1% now, in this new reading, congressman how much of the -- you know covid relief package has been spent? i know that we've talked a lot about some of the money being allocated right now. and it still hasn't been spent you also have certain states still giving out inflation checks quote/unquote inflation checks. >> exactly, maria, there is -- there are hundreds of billions of dollars covid money that has not been spent or processed, that is still in state and local political subdivisions coffers starting to environment when you talk real wages just mentioned real

wages for 19th month, tie, has declined under joe biden, it is now, declined 3.8% engines joe biden has taken the oath of office. to put in sfest in 105 months prior to joe biden being in office, real wages increased 102 out of 105 months, but they've declined the last 19 months this administration, because of reckless economic policies. and i think of i maria if you looks at the, the reduction in have used cars that is the direct result of the skyrocketing interest rates, we have seen the fed, increase interest rates six times, the fastest increase in 40 years, in fact the combination over the last 15 years combined, that is why people's purchasing less cars, less used cars that is why the prices are going down you are going to see that in homes very shortly. maria: i mean we don't have

an energy policy that constructive for oil companies we know john catsimatidis it has been energy policy underlying some stress on the part of families across america. look. right now oil prices above where they were when joe biden started sell oil from strategic reserve. >> if joe biden opened north america my next prediction would be 55 dollars a barrel. it could happen my advice to jay powell would be, give it a pause. let things sort themselves out instead of creating a new problem, in the rest of the industries. maria: well, look. we will see, maybe that is what they are this could dagen that is what market has been speculating we are up big since september 30th, in stocks, because investors are

you know, suggesting and betting that this tiny phase is coming to end how many people have we spoken with that think the fed is going to start cutting rates the end of next year. >> i think the those a lot of those people are still -- they haven't seen let go of that euphoria. and mania that took hold during the loose money days during the pandemic. that is very hard to shake. but to the congressman's point, that we are that short-term reports by the time 4 1/2% on wednesday that is highest in 15 years. and they've gone up fastest in 40 years to repeat what the congressman was saying. that is a shock. to the financial system. and the people who are getting shocked the most and hardest

working men and women the burden at first was inflation juiced by the federal reserve, and the reckless spending coming out of the biden white house they were taking on debt when interest rates were low, to try and keep up with the inflation. and then the fed starts hiking interest rates, all of a sudden, to 4 1/2%. and now are there credit card bill are skyrocketing, costing more to go go out apply a new vehicle or lease a new vehicle, and that burden is going up. and so they are the ones who pardon my language have completely gotten screwed in all this, the federal reserve's job has been made that much harder, because biden and company won't stop sending out stimulus. don't forget, that they have continued the moratorium making student loan payments through at least the middle next year, that is

inflationary. it is a stimulus for rich people, and because interest is not accruing on that debate, the taxpayers are paying that that burden is being borne by people, again, who can't afford it. maria: what do we do now congressman smith we are looking at inflation having come off the highs, are we supposed to say oh, well nation has peaked, so let's get back to the spending and reckless -- uh approach to this economy? you know, joe biden just approved what 24% increase in wages for the rail workers, and he wants this moratorium to continue on the student loans he wants to push through that policy which already has been deemed unconstitutional so what happens now you just said you and colleagues negotiating year-end spending. much more spending are we going to see before the end of the year? >> maria, three weeks from today, kevin mccarthy will become speaker of the house we

need to pass an continued resolution until republicans can control%, so we can get fiscal house in order do not need a huge omnibus trillion dollar trillion-dollar dollar spending bill we need to pass continuing resolution when house republicans take control three weeks we can set priorities for american people that is to get this reckless spending under control. and that is an absolute must. we cannot agree to this huge year long spending bill. maria: okay. the democrats are still in control. are you going to be able to do that? >> we can do that with partnership from the senate, because they have to have 60 votes we need republican senators to join with us, and join with -- with leader mccarthy to make sure let us do a funding bill whenever republicans control the house of representatives, we will be at much better negotiating place we got to do it for person people, the american

people, are struggling to put food on table clothes on backs gasoline in theircars these numbers that came out today maria are just numbers. but, what people are facing, is the fact that almost one-third of americans can't even afford a 400 dollar emergency coming up by having 400 bucks in savings account they are struggling the last thing they want is washington to continue to spend trillion-dollar more dollars to fuel this inflation fire. >> talking about a very different situation during trump years liz if i remember correctly you had a tax cut plan, out of the trump administration, and signed approved by congress that actually had the lowest earners seeing the biggest increases in their wages. that is back in 2017. liz: a fond memory isn't it truth is economy in great shape at that point, by the way, part was because we had a

real pro-growth in front of of philosophy in white house policies to care that out when is last time a democrat talked about growing the economy? that is not their strong substitute at all maria i want to point out, that we have had the biggest tightening not just in terms of interest rates, but in terms shriin ikage since 1940 it takes a year is style two years to really show up, i don't think we know what the results of this big tightening cycle will have been time periods alleged associated with a very good deep recession, i think we are going to pivot all of us, who watch this material, in the next several months from watching inflation watching the fed to watching job losses, and watching earnings, because i don't think analysts are at all realistic about what earnings are going to look like next year i think

investors are going to have to start focusing, on the impact of this fed tightening, we have not yet seen. maria: you are right the journal writes about that this morning as worry concern has moved from the inflation, to growth. so dave address that what kind of growth would you -- you couple for 2023 do you think we will be in recession first half and then a better performing second half how do you see '23 playing out. >> i suspect it will be a mild recession if we have one, if we look at a number of other indicators look at labor market this is always a puzzle this year still really strong robust we have, 10 million job options about 6 million unemployed, last month we had 263,000 jobs created, our four million jobs this year if you look just at that hard to see economy slowing down you have the -- president talking about fed showing pretty strong growth fourth quarter, third

quarter positive growth as well, on one hand, we see some robust growth still occurring. on the other hand we see real income much lower, going down next year possible we go into into recession a deep recession would i be surprised. if it does happen would be incredible whiplash to the economy labor market doing relatively well to get steep job losses would be a drastic, drastic change would it be a shock not sure going to happen dramatically maybe it will. dagen: i point out stephanie pomboy sending me notes emails text messages last several jobs reports if you watch household survey has showed massive job losses, and that is a pivotal report to watch inflection points in the economy wcom survey showed

losses, a household survey small businesses independent businesses, and large employer survey, so the employer survey is just got o a few months to catch up to the losses in jobs that you've seen in the household survey. maria: a really important point to make, john catsimatidis we talked about oil, and your businesses oil but your businesses is also groceries put your grocery hat on a second. with inflation coming off the highs, are you expecting to cut prices at the grocery store? much of a lag is that or do prices pretty much stay as is? what i am talking about getting up to the register. >> the manufacturers that make that decision, we have just make normal markup, it is the manufacturers and, of course, delivery to the stores and whole country.

and right now we've seen zero, zero we still are seeing some price increases so the prices at grocery store will continue to rise, until -- for next 30 days until january. and we -- then we will see what happens the keyword in the sentence is it is time for the fed to pause. and sort things out. because the fed is the one that is going to create the recession, if there is a recession coming. maria: a congressman, after all this bad policy, that has resulted in bad outcome what are the odds that the republicans take over in the new year, we go into recession, an democrats proclaim the gop? for getting us into recession? >> a maria you can count on it. of. maria: yeah. >> look at inflation prices. joe biden refused to even belief inflation existed.

at the very beginning, then tried to proclaim it on covid then tried to blame it on putin, and then they finally came across reality that inflation existed that is exactly what they will do here, 49% of small business owners say we are in a recession right now, they are feeling it. when you are talking about, the rising cost of food it is only getting worse farmers who i represent their paying 50% more for diesel, for wages, for the people working on their fascism going to get difficult. maria: all goes back to this failed energy policy for sure. market is up on better-than-expected numbers up 759 great conversation everybody cam jason smith john catsimatidis david beck averting david david lids pique cheryl casone thank you all we will see you again tomorrow stuart: short break? there's no short break, maria, good morning to you and good morning, everyone. are you read