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tv   Making Money With Charles Payne  FOX Business  December 23, 2022 2:00pm-3:00pm EST

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your gift today honors their sacrifice forever. neil: we've got bumpy trading and nasty weather combined with the notion that it is going to hit the economy of people can't get to where they are going. here's charles payne. charles: i'm where i need to be. merry christmas to you and good
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afternoon. this is making money and breaking now, the last session before christmas and all through the market not a lot of movement nor any big breakouts, major indices holding but slight is a threat and hope that the new your won't be another of losses and dread. i'm here to help you formulate a game plan for 2023, get ready, i've got scott martin on deck to help out. with the fate of the crypto revolution, what good regulations look like they are coming anyway. market rebellion cofounder john no cherian. how you can take advantage, rebecca walter will break it down for you at 2:30. plus "my take" away later on why financial media is the worst and best thing to happen to the stock market. that and more on making money.
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as we look forward to the new year this is a great time to survey the damage of 2022, learn lessons so we cannot only assess our own mistakes but formulate the gameplaying through 2023. there is no escaping the carnage but there is a huge difference in losses between value and growth. the russell 1000 down 10% for the year meanwhile the russell one thousand growth up, down 30%. retail investors came into the your sensing something was wrong and as a result, the first time in history folks, the american association of individual investors sentiment but there's not a single moment above average, the first time this has ever happened and everyone is betting on capitulation. that would be for the worst of the year ever, one of the worst years ever. look at the quick call ratios
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reached a record high again. incidentally this is supposed to be a contrarian indicator but it has worked well for those big on a total destruction of the market even at this stage of the selloff. many are looking for a final blow, others are looking for weakness. what about wall street? to buy low and sell high. the dip, has obviously been a tough year for the market but even tougher for individual investors, it made fortunes for you in 2020-2021. art of that was buying that it. it backfired miserably. to buy the dip trade, rewarded folks handsomely in the last decade. in the wall street journal, the worst year for that since 1979. stocks falling one%, let's call it 0.7% in the week after a 1% decline. you bought those dips in the got hurt. the overall result has seen the
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average rental portfolio drawdown more than 35%. that's double the decline of the s&p 500. assessments assume these stocks are bought for quick trade. many people buying stocks not for the dip but to position themselves for a long-term rebound but the big mistakes, people are buying stocks that have the longest route to proving themselves fundamentally. until the fed starts cutting rates again and flooding them with cash you see these shorter names? you'll be stuck in the mud and target practice for those who made a fortune this year. the list of most shorted stocks are sitting ducks, they are only trading, if you want to mess around with them the risk/reward dynamic is out of your favor. a prime example would be the 60th name on the list we showed you. w is the symbol, shares of the
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furniture maker down 17% since last wednesday. contrast with williams-sonoma and restoration hardware which are fractionally higher. it is all about fundamentals at this point. that matters most. when it comes to reviving revenue growth, a couple names will stand out. i want to go down this route next year and monitor tesla. yesterday after the close elon musk on one of those twitter spaces promised he won't sell more stock, that is pretty good. it is great for individual investors because retail has been buying this thing. one is shooting straight up, retail investors buying. the other is straight down, tesla's shares and there's apple, great proxy for the global consumer. is holding on much better than its cohort so this is what we are going to unpack. join is managing principal
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david dietz, rob luna and kings view wealth management cio scott martin and the crypto boroughs, i did not get the memo, i am wearing the wrong shade right now. you didn't tell me. let's talk about this. i am going to talk about steadfast rules for buying stocks that are down and down markets. people obviously this is what you want to do, go into next year and take advantage of the carnage but this year any attempt to do that mostly has been a mistake. what are your steadfast rules? >> at the end of the day you've got to find quality over the long run and if you look at stocks over the long when you get 9% to 10% returns, why did not 2% or 3%? you have to endure years like this, the volatility. stick with quality. you talked about retail, wayfarer hasn't been doing well. restoration hardware dominating great products, great service, great company.
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when you get a chance to buy those names down 50% or 60% you step up and do it. don't start digging through the rubble to find that and hope you get lottery tickets, stick with high quality, themes you can have conviction in during hard times. >> i agree on the dips sentiment. in a market like this you have to sell the pie. to rob's point staying active and not hoping for the lottery ticket but being happy with saying i'm going to get 25% or 30% after it was downtrodden like a lot of these names is still win. the market does recover more normally. charles: your approach to this, you have been buying here and they are, what are the rules people should understand if they are going to do this? i think if you buy the right names going into 2,023 you will make a lot of money. >> reporter: here three things we are looking for.
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companies that have the guts to cut costs. we heard from fedex that they had a tough year with mixed results but outlined the stock is up. to have an opportunity for financial engineering, the sample i'm looking for going forward is disney. they may want to spin out the espn that would allow espn to get high end with gaming, with image consciousness disney doesn't want, that will push the stock. the other thing, looking for the company to have lowered debt. they will roll over some big debt with higher interest rate regime. charles: financial engineering, we saw fedex say they were going to cut 3. $7 billion out. a euphemism for firing people. of companies have to lower costs, to david's point i want
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to talk about the market overall. all eyes are on the fed. let's put that aside. i think it will be earnings surprises that bring the big news. since the end of the earnings season. and 74% earnings. the kicker, the average gain for that day, this is the template going into next year. other than the fed sparking the turnaround. >> reporter: i agree the boat is getting loaded to the other side of the earnings picture with respect to folks expecting negative numbers. stocks are already correcting because of that but those that deliver well do well as far as the next day or 2. for us, it still is the fed first and foremost but look at the consumer numbers coming out as far as confidence, retail sales, they start to support things going forward.
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if we are worried about earnings coming down as folks are talking about. charles: david? >> looking at inflation and interest rates, at the end of the day, the fed doesn't call the economy, the economy, the fed, they admit that. we are looking at inflation number is continuing to come down. if inflation is such a big problem why is the 10 year below 4%? ultimately the fed realizes it would get more stabilization in the bond market, stocks follow. charles: rob? >> i agree with david and scott. they made great points. it is all about the fed. if you look at oil prices and housing starts, hard to believe we don't have peak inflation. we put the bottom in the market already. we were shopping around. if we could get anything constructive out of the fed, the market will point to the rally.
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charles: i started this segment talking to two names that would be imperative with the broader growth area, apple and tesla. anyone buying those names now? david? >> i am going with apple. this is the stickiest device on the planet and they got all these various services and watches and so forth, keeps you stuck there. save got a lot of revenue, upgrading the emerging world and china, with supply disruption, apple 25% this year, here's your opportunity. charles: what are you buying? >> i'm not going with either of those. they will not have good years next year, they have a good chance but having been beaten up enough. amazon and google have been down 50%. names i like, disney, great
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comeback story here, the victim of tax law, if you are looking for one name, ftc h under $4, that will be bought out by amazon and a lot of opportunity. if you're willing to take on a little risk that can be your biggest mover next year. charles: we have a one hundred% mover. can you beat that? >> i think so. great valuation, top line growth and demand coming back. this stock has been forgotten, you got to own it. charles: you are three of the best. i appreciate you. have a fantastic christmas and that's of rock and roll next time we see each other in 2023. by the way, folks, if you get a chance, go to i laid out a small part of a larger special report which i will release it on january 6th. make sure you see it, prepare your portfolio. next year should be a better year.
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moments ago the house passed the one. $7 trillion omnibus bill. we will break down how it will not only affect the economy but there is something sweet for the retirement account. first, the fed proposing central-bank digital currency. the public is not on board. whether or not it will come to fruition next. ♪ ♪ acoustic soul music throughout ♪
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charles: as the saga gets ready for the next stage of the legal process. some form of regulation, will it be guardrails, to help usher this along or insurmountable speed bumps that are designed to derail the crypto movement. joining the is haley linen. we had a skeezy see -- sec chair gary gensler under the microscope are not doing enough and if congress defines the sec as regulatory body that should be in charge of this, some people like to see this, what actions would you like to see them take?
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>> reporter: a great question. thanks for having me. what the industry has been screaming for is more proactive regulation. any regulator that becomes the prudential regulator of this industry. gary gensler in a statement says his patience is growing thin, to comply with regulations and from my experience as an attorney in the space representing clients that is not the case at all. companies and people are willing to comply but there needs to be clarity on registration, disclosures and based on what we have seen over the last month some of the focus needs to be on things like proof of reserves, financial disclosures, how customer assets are segregated and not used by our company so there's a lot of things regulators can do to prevent the harm we've seen over the last month. charles: there are a bunch of folks on the hill who want to
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ban crypto altogether. we talked about this the last 2 or 3 years. that is a little bit cocky. could it be nipped in the bud? could lawmakers find a way to derail this revolution? >> other countries have tried. i don't think it would be successful. it is as decentralized -- it is a hard thing and the conversation, the idea of banning a technology or industry because something fraudulent occurred in the industry is so off the point and after bernie madoff and and ron --enron we didn't talk about banning major industries. when i hear that i scratch my head and say bitcoin is not the problem.
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fraud is the problem and fraud can happen in any industry. charles: what about the other part, senator elizabeth warren has a proposal many say would create a surveillance state and that goes against the value proposition of bitcoin. >> i have a lot of fears about cbtcs and efforts to use what happened over the last few months with ftx to justify increased surveillance of software, that doesn't make sense. what elizabeth warren is saying is she would like to expand the definition of money services businesses to include a lot of things that don't make sense and exchanges in the us or money services businesses. her bill would not likely prevent anything we have seen, just gives the government more authority to survey and just try to control the general public and crypto currency.
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charles: congress had this hearing recently, spf didn't make it, he was arrested before and there were a few lawmakers and the anti-crypto contingent, hillary j allen said block chain technology is unfit, saying it allows providers to benefit, nothing to consumers. even people who weren't fans of crypto, and major value and block chain and now we see an effort to dismiss that. that concern you at all? >> doesn't concern me long-term. when some of the events unfolded over the last month everyone in the industry realized it was going to be the perfect storm for people to point out critiques of block chain or anything like that. at the core of it, decentralized finance, having decentralized lock chain is a
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decentralized lever and all these things when people talk about ftx, bitcoin goes against all of that. the focus of not having a centralized company and ceo, that might have alternatives putting consumers first and that should be the focus of these conversations in the coming months, hoping what would be more of the focus. neil: charles: some of those lawmakers embarrass themselves in an effort to push some thing out of business they don't understand. merry christmas. see you soon. coming up, $1.7 trillion is done. the omnibus bill. i did find something i want to talk to you about that could be good, your retirement planning, rebecca with those changes, plus it is not me, it is you, that is what an economist says
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charles: lots of economic data out this morning. what stood out for me was decline in savings and inflation edging lower from a year ago, 4. 7% down from 5%. it is actually now below the fed forecast of 4.8%. joining me, fs investment laura frame along with the ceo and chief strategist. this session today and yesterday. third-quarter gdp revision was revised a little higher and
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that is what the street went with. i'm looking at the leading comic indicators crashing below consensus, the conference board saying as a result of is that they projected us recession likely to start at the beginning of 2023 and last through the year. everyone is trying to play this game. can you pinpoint the start of the recession? >> reporter: i haven't. my favorite gdp tracker further reduce fourth-quarter gdp estimate for the current fourth quarter 20.6%, that is a rounding error. we could end up backdating this recession. as i have spoken of for months, to january 2022. on the leading economic index which looks forward, the only one of the 10 components that was positive was the stock market but the ldi was the lowest since october of 2,009 and we looked at something that is more leading and it is chemical rail shipments. the most leading of all
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cyclical sectors, the lowest since june of 2,009. other indicators, lagging recession and very loud wave. charles: laura? >> i would agree we need to be mindful of when the recession begins. growth has not been very strong at all. we've seen stagnant growth. bit will come down to jobs. that's when the referee will start the clock on a recession. the labor market continues to look strong even though extra jobs aren't giving us a lot of extra output. the economy feels stagnant even though month after month we are getting job gains. at the end of the day the bond market, the yield curve is inverted and signaling, it is a good leading indicator of recession but my timing is towards the second half of 2023. that is when we get the job losses and recession starts. charles: when we do get the recession what does it mean for the markets?
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>> to me right now forward, expectations are still for positive growth, not a lot of positive growth but when we get a recession usually earnings fall 10% to 20%. margins go far and stayed pretty generous and strong. the bond market is signaling recession, they are waiting market may have a room to correct. we are still getting these bear market rallies. charles: some folks clinging to hopes of a soft landing. the federal reserve cafeteria, would anyone be whispering we can get a soft landing? >> reporter: they follow weekly jobless claims data as closely as i do and we have 26 states with rising ranks of individuals collecting unemployment insurance. unless it is different this
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time, it is a recessionary indicator and daily job closely as well, we see 220 individual locations close in the month of december, 55% higher than we saw in december of last year, small businesses are quietly going away. that the backbone of the american economy and very troubling heading into the new year with 50% of states with rising unemployment insurance claims. charles: i was reading your 10 for 20 report. love it, fantastic. which item is the most important if you could rank them as you go to the new year, these are major guessing game. everyone is playing it and the stakes are sky high. >> to me the most important thing to recognize is the markets are focused on short-term inflation indicators. the fed is looking at long-term economic indicators.
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markets have kept expecting the fed to raise rate cuts, to be more dovish even though the fed is talking hawkish, markets are hedging against how tough the fed is going to be in raising rates. that's a mistake we are repeating throughout the year and something i keep coming back to. we need to recognize the fed this time around may not give the market the easy money has got used to the last 15 years. charles: i see you nodding your head in approval. the one that emerged after 2018, four rate hikes, market down 20%. don't know if it was the ghost of christmas past or present but something happened, he was a little easier, thinking about social justice. is he willing to truly crush this economy just to be rendered as volcker 2.0? >> i think he is and i have
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been saying he hears a higher calling. you wants to ranch back control of making interest rate policy for the country and put that back in the control of the federal reserve and that means breaking the fed put, investors assumption that there will always be a next pivot and the fed will always bail them out. he wants to break the mindset going into 2023. investors are ill prepared for his resolution. charles: after the accommodated fed for so long, that is a lump of coal after all the lumps we took this year. thank you both very much. have a great weekend, merry christmas. another wildcard from the fed to contend with or wildfire, one. $7 trillion on the way. the omnibus bill passed the senate and the house. let's bring in rebecca
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walt'ser. this is loaded to the gills. i'm sorry? we don't have rebecca right now. for those who don't know about this, it is loaded to the gills with pork pork pork and all that stuff will contribute to inflation. there are some good things when it comes to retirement, retirement funds you should learn about but other than that it won't help. i was able to buy enough time to sneak rebecca in. we lost a little time. your thoughts on this $1.7 trillion monstrosity. >> from a tax perspective they are pushing the r&d back, starting january, 72 to 73 and 10 years later goes from 73 to 75. it is a little strange in the sense any more tax revenue, they are pushing the requirement on distributions back further. that is interesting, gives a
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lot of opportunities more room for planning. that is a good thing. charles: that was a compromise for republicans, critics say it helps wealthier folks. the longer you keep your money in those funds the longer you go without paying taxes. aren't we trying to encourage people to save for the future anyway? >> we are absolutely. america is a consumer-based economy. i was listening to the ladies talk with you. it is one hundred%, we %, we must be able to spend and when we can't spend we go into recession. one part of the bill is clamping down on tax strategies which is section one hundred 78 conservation easements. there's a lot of litigation going back-and-forth because it is a charitable deduction and this bill does circumvent fighting out in the court system it limits the conservation easement deduction to 2. 5 times the actual investment. that's a big area of what wealthy people use and that is something they are attacking in this bill.
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charles: let's talk about people trying to get wealthy through the stock market. how do you see 2023 playing out? >> we will have a bad beginning. we are going to have some kind of jolt people are not prepared for because it has been a long slog. people got ingratiated with this and flexing this is normal and not aspect a big jolt. that's a mistake. there will be some jolts and i do see that once we get to organic ripoff of the overbought status across all sectors we get the organic stimulus out and there are so many opportunities but it will be paying for it until we get to the organic level. charles: the big thing today was to buy the dip. maybe at some point but not at the beginning of the year for sure. >> i do think it will come soon in the beginning. what i'm talking about happens you are going to know it. this is it. it will be obvious when we have this economic route downward.
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i don't think people are prepared. we are expecting it. then there is a ton of dry powder opportunity that everyone should take advantage of. charles: i love your hat and your enthusiasm. rebecca, merry christmas, thank you very much. >> thank you. charles: "my take" away on the emotional roller coaster that is the stock market and how to block out the noise although it is tough because it is tough. i will have you grab a pen and go to option school. some amazing ideas on how you can benefit going into 2023 next.
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charles: coming into today's session, the s&p down 20%, down
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6.3% so that is huge. my next guest says it is like adding gasoline to the selloff fire. welcome to options school. market rebellion founder john najarian. this topic doesn't get enough attention in the media. >> it is having this impact on the market. >> it is pretty easy to understand. throwing gasoline on a fire. you have an example of apple, it has been one hundred $55 this year several times, say you bought it there and today it and is trading at 130. you can harvest that $25 differential by selling out your shares of apple and realizing a $25,000 loss loss per 1000 shares. if you match that up against gains you pay no tax so that is
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what an awful lot of people are doing, taking a lot of short-term gains, matching them against a short-term loss like this and that pushes things lower. they can do it until the final bill rings at the end of the year. the caveat is they can't jump back in until 30 days later than where they harvest this. they might miss a rally if there is one. i think that is what we are seeing. it is smart, people that are doing it but there are ways to take advantage of it. charles: they call it the wash rule. this is exacerbating selling. it is also creating bond opportunities. i wonder if you can give us some examples using tesla, the selloff has been ugly, it is overdone in many ways. how do we take advantage? >> whether it is yellen musk or shorts, people are selling the stock in this month alone, down 35%.
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what i do and what i did do, putting money to work today, i was buying the april 1, '25 colds and selling the april 1, '75, that means the differential between those two, i have the right to buy it at one hundred 25, i have given someone else the right to take it from me at 175, a $50 spread. i paid $15 so i could have 15 turn into 50. that is my kind of trade and that is setting up because of the volatility and the selloffs that have occurred in tesla. charles: apple, you are buying the january calls in apple. >> in january because i expect a bounce out of this. this recent selling in both these stocks is overdone. apple is a long-term holding for me but i am adding not just stock but calls, jumping in here and buying the january 1,
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'30 calls, paying $5.50, $550 per option, so i could spend $5,500 to control the upside of apple from one hundred 32 wherever until the third friday in january instead of spending 130,000 per one thousand shares. i'm spending 5500, the trade-off is time. charles: another idea, you are selling -- what is the difference between buying the calls and selling the puts. >> the put seller is what warren buffett does, what mark cuban does, what bill gates does, they are sellers of insurance, it is the right to sell something so if i sell a foot it is obligating me to buy at whatever strike price it is. trading at $17 and change, down
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60% on the year, i could sell the february, 16 puts and collect a little over a dollar which is $100 which means if it fell i would be buying them at 16, strike i sold, plus the premium are collected, wouldn't be buying it until 15 and that would be with stock down 70%. %. i like playing odds like that. charles: we like you sharing those odds. it is a blessing to have you on the show. a fantastic christmas, we will talk again soon. >> i hope you have a fantastic christmas too. before "my take" away on why the financial media is the worst investing for the stock market and investors but first we will go over the latest report on the state of the consumer. it all comes out of the consumer, jerome martinez, one of the best, does the work, will share with us, what we might see over this holiday weekend next.
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charles: we talked about jerome powell, the goal to boost unemployment, that will ease the wage hikes, more people coming into the labor market,
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and and jerome martinez, income is up 0.4%, both john a lot from the prior month's. what sort of sentiment readings are you seeing right now? >> the latest confidence index recently took a depended is telling us consumers are feeling worse about 2023. they are concerned about job security, purchasing power, a different story than we had seen in 2,022. because these components were stronger this year consumers felt better about opening their wallets and swiping those credit cards. might be a different story and 2023.
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charles: the times you have been on the show, the consumer a strong, balance sheet, confident, cocky, spending money, they are americans, they could spend credit cards, this feels very sudden. is something happening? i thought gasoline prices were down and even more confident, why are they less confident? >> it comes down to the employment number, inflation is pinching them but if the unemployment number starts to take up we will see them put their hats in their pockets and pulled out their funding. don't get me wrong consumers are going to the malls, shopping the holiday season but they are pickier what they are buying at those promotions are very selective whether they are really going to spend or they are spending in the restaurant. while they are out shopping for the holiday season, those higher prices, they are spending just not at the mall, not buying goods. charles: this week we had nike
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domestic sales through the roof, car max, the mystic sales falling through the floor, both stocks in opposite directions. this is what you are talking about, the whole experience kind of thing or service kind of thing, is that the dominant factor when it comes to consumer spending. >> 10 out of the 11 consumer related sectors related for the holiday season. and seeing growth of earnings, 250%, and consumers are going out, but is more interesting is when they're going to the restaurants they are no longer going to quick service, casual dining, fine dining, and and paying the tip and higher prices because they want those experiences. the consumer still engaged but not so much at the mall but
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more the restaurant and travel. charles: that is good in the aftermath of the pandemic. i have a minute left, last time you are on the show, you had some great -- you talked about macy's, next day the stock exploded higher, and it went higher, and investors should be looking at? >> they are bullish, lululemon for the holiday season, nike receiving those from the world cup and to do well in the holiday season, they just have the right amount of promotions to lure shoppers and so they expect not only to beat earnings expectations but to post a positive surprise. charles: people should be writing those names down. have a great christmas, see you soon. "my take" away, financial media is many times a worse thing but when you come to the right
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charles: so, as i watch this market bounce around like a paper airplane in a tornado i'm really frustrated because so much of these wild gyrations are simply unnecessary. they are the product of financial media, and i know i'm part of the group, but i do try to put out fires and our network does work really hard to simplify the issues and allow
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you to make educated decisions and i admit it's not always easy to do. now for your part, that frustration is actually captured brilliantly in the 1981 robert mancoff cartoon i recently saw reposted. on wall street today news of lower interest rates has sent the stock market up, but then, the expectations that these rates be inflationary sent the stock market down until a realization that lower rates might stimulate this economy, push the market up. before it ultimately went down on fears that an overheated economy would lead to a re imposition of higher interest rates. i mean i think that's pretty much spot-on. it sounds a lot like the conversations we're having today with the fed and interest rates. consequently this year has seen more 1% moves up and down than any in history and as bad as its been on television social media in many ways is worse. all day today, you know its been trending? #stock marketcrashes. i know this doesn't help, right? and i will say there are people out there, on the net, on
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twitter, that i do want to give a shout out too. jay brown, i snuck in one of their twitter pieces yesterday. i love what you all are doing, right? a lot of you taking big losses in some stocks, learning the hard way but not giving up and that's what the essence is of all of this and that it why i say for me personally its been a pleasure and honor to be able to help you all these many years and the pledge i give all my viewers is i don't think anyone could outwork me. i'm working day and night to make this stuff easier for you to understand, so you can get more sleep and more importantly, that maybe down the road your portfolio actually does better so we're sort of in this together. i'm not going to fill you with a bunch of jargon and if i do i'll tell you what it means. that'll do-it-for-me have a great merry christmas merry christmas as i hand it over to the "clayman countdown." liz: it is so good to hear that, thank you so much, charles, and charles, happy holidays to you and your whole family. charles: thank you s


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