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tv   Making Money With Charles Payne  FOX Business  January 12, 2023 2:00pm-3:00pm EST

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you're sitting on a goldmine! come on, guys! do you hear that? i don't hear anything anymore. find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit wait... do you use singlecare? no, i have insurance. oh singlecare can actually beat your co-pay. singlecare can also beat the price of your medicare plan. you mean our medicare plan? damn you too much sun! check the singlecare price today! neil: the run-up continues up 300 points. we go to charles payne to keep the momentum going. he always does. charles: i always do. i dig the suit. neil: copying you. charles: good afternoon, my friend. i'm charles payne. this is "making money." the street is trying to cheer the cpi report.
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it came in line. here the thing food inflation still soaring especially at grocery stores. we have bob doll on deck to help us figure it you all out. whether the fed will continue the brave fight to fight inflation. maybe they will take a victory lap sooner rather than later. on deck, lara rhame on economics on all of that. tracy shuchart, president biden took a victory lap on lower oil prices. was that. much we have the bond king, jeffrey gundlach, he says bonds over stocks. more importantly anything but the united states. i cannot wait to talk to him. we have a long interview scheduled with him. also we've got on deck, my man, kenny polcari. he says he has got something for every generation. we're talking all seven generations. it is opportunity of a lifetime. you obviously don't want to miss that. my takeaway what hurt us last
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year, helped us last year might hurt us this year. i will explain. folks in charge need to be paying attention. all that and more on "making money". ♪. charles: so we waited all week long, right? investors were on pins and needles did all week long for the cpi report, it comes in line, right? at least wall street official consensus. let's face it, no doubt if you look the way the market acted, a lot of people thought it would come in a little bit less. this is clear one thing inflation peaked. that is fine. what is also clear run-up in inflation is something we had not seen in a long, long time. certainly not the past 20 years. inflation is growing slower, this after a spike last year. there is a lot more work to be done. meanwhile things are changing, folks. i want you to take a look at this, everyone wondering what it means for the federal reserve.
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phillyed if president harker, 25 basis point hikes appropriate from here on out. weigh got the cme fed watch, when we put the show together, it was 91%. now we're 93% chance of just a 25 basis point cut, hike rather when they meet in early february. that is good news. as the street nashes its teeth over the cpi report. tomorrow big banks will report their earnings. here is an interesting tidbit, right? executives are dealing with a whole lot of things. free cash, starting to fade, inflation it is still biting. then of course the dent of demand comes with recession. to that end, earnings calls, they are funny, become somewhat heated. look at this, a record spike in people cursing. these are swearing on the conference calls. we never seen it like that. that was a 2022. something tells me the conference calls this year will take out this record. joining me now, the one and only
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crossmark global cio bob doll. so great to have you in new york. start with with the street, right? we're looking, the street this is interesting, let me show you something here, for the audience. even though fed keeps saying they will not cut rates, wall street hooking for one rate cut, two rate cuts before the year is over. do you agree with this? >> i don't. because inflation is stubborn but will not get to two because that is the way the fed wants. there is no way they cut rates. 2, 3, 4, that is close enough to two but i don't think so. charles: tomorrow the shift goes to earnings. >> big time. charles: big time. banks will be reporting. you know, it, i got a great chart, i want to ask you about this, this is from our friend lance roberts. this is where earnings are, earnings estimates gauge. earnings estimates were way up
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here, they are coming down. what the chart is telling us if this isn't a biggest bubble a long time, this is where it should be. will that be a big problem? >> i think it will hold the market back, whether it kills the market i'm not sure, because of good news we talked about inflation. analysts are being reluctant to cut estimates. we don't know. will we have recession? will we not have recession? will it be mild. will it be severe. until they hear fourth quarter numbers, get outlooks for 2023, i don't think they will do a lot with numbers but they will come down, charles. charles: won't there be reluctance? i feel like on conference calls. i've been around a long time. so funny, usually with the conference calls, great quarter, guys, what the hell are you guys doing? they're going back and forth. this is record amount of swearing on conference calls? is that what we expect, a lot of swearing, a lot of punting? >> there will be a lot of consternation, so much uncertainty because the economy we don't know. analysts don't know.
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managements don't know. a lot of people will sit back to wait for more news. don't forget charles, the fed raised rates in 2022 at the second fastest pace in history that operates on the economy with long unpredictable lag. charles: right. >> we'll get weakness. we can debate how much. charles: how do we ride this out then? where do you want to be positioned to ride all of this uncertainty out? >> i think because we'll get this volatility, and we don't know enough now to call things, i'm a buyer on dips and trimmer on rallies. i'm rhee acting to the market. charles: is that your national proclivity to do that trading or are you adjusting to what the market is giving you? >> what the market is giving us. if we find stocks, hit the targets, we'll buy it, same thing on the other side. within the equity position have some predictability, have some quality. quality of management. quality of the income statement. quality of the balance sheet until we get more visibility what the economy will look like.
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charles: we'll ride this out? >> we get through. we always do. charles: i have a feeling. bob, thank you very much. >> yeah. charles: i want to bring in from fs investments, their chief economist lara rhame. laura, i want to start with the stubborn parts of inflation, shelter, less energy, 32% of the total. up .7 of a percent month over month, everyone is talking about rents and i got to get your feeling on this, folks 8.3% year-over-year. .8, this is sticky stuff, right? here's the question, can the fed do anything about it? an aggressive rate hikes do anything about these numbers? >> this is the piece, first of all we know that this was going to be high. we've seen the high frequency rent indicators. we know it bleeds through to the headline number with some lags. so we knew that this number would be bad, this rent component was going to stay sticky and high and frustrating.
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from the fed's point of view, charles, their problem is, that rents may come down, moderate somewhat but they tend to track with wages and over the long term if you have wage growth of four to 5%, you're not really going to move the needle on inflation unless you can move the needle on wages. that is why they have been so aggressive stepping on the brakes. charles: sounds like then they have to cut the swath of destruction to get to, to get to these things, right? this is the lag effect we're talking about. where does that put us with respect to 25 basis points? harker says 25 basis points. cme fed watch says 25 basis points. you know, can they get to a point where they're just doing 25 basis points, at some point declare victory? >> yeah. you know i think what your point, the reaction to today's inflation numbers is really telling. we've seen the probability of a 50 basis point rate hike at the
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february meeting fall a lot, but we haven't seen the end point of the fed rate hike cycle move very much. the market rightly in my opinion thinking that the fed may be a little more gradual but there still will be in the rate hike game, for the start, at least to me first half of this year. i think that is where this war of words, of the fed and markets has only just begun because you look to the second half of the year, markets are aggressively pricing rate cuts. the fed is saying whoa, you guys are way ahead of yourselves. we have a a lot to work to do on inflation and rate hikes, don't get over your skis. charles: although hark kerr harker blinged a little bit and. folks, tomorrow's bank numbers this is what i think we'll look for, provisions for loan losses.
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they went down as the economy was getting healthy. last year they started to come up. lara we're starting to look at pretty big numbers, pretty hefty numbers. not where we were when covid first kicked in. is there a point where loan loss provisions mean a calamity for the entire economy? >> calamity is too much, i think, charles, happily, that may be a lot. but i think to your point there is self-reinforcing cycle. more banks pull off the table, hold in reserve, the last dry powder there is no lend to add to that ammunition for growth through the banking sector. i think banks right now feel like they're being responsible. right now we have to view this as really a good sign. i don't think that we're going to face any kind of a financial crisis f that was going to happen, it would have happened in march of 2020. at the end of the day economic uncertainty is a problem. it is going to cause problems. i think tough discussions and questions around earnings calls
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but as far as the banking system goes they just want to be cautious first i think in the second quarter, third quarter, growth is still strong. getting soft landing, low probability, but if we get it they want to be in a position to release those reserves like they did before. charles: i got you. i tell you right now the 10-year yield down, 10 basis points. so right now the bond mark feeling better than it was yesterday. we always feel better when you're on the show. thank you so much, lara. with us right now hightower ceo, tracy shuchart. tracy, i have to talk to you about this, two hours ago president biden took a victory lap on inflation. he started off by touting falling gas prices. taking the crude out of the strategic petroleum reserve was a smart thing to do. we know now as a result we're back to levels we have not seen
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since 1983. i am wondering if he is maybe bragging a little bit too soon? >> well in a word, yes. he also did just come out about an hour ago and said that he is not ruling out further releases from the spr. that said -- charles: i mean what are we going to do? dump it all? >> you know, it's, you know my thoughts on that. charles: yeah. >> more to, more to your questions, right now we have the inventories globally are still rather tight but not as tight as they were. it is winter in the northern hemisphere. china has been off-line. we've had a little bit of relief, but that said, many factors could push oil prices much higher later on in the year. we have china reopening. that could likely add another million to one 1.5 million barrels per consumption.
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russia is a wild card. we don't know how many barrels are taken off the market. trading much lower than the oil price cap. he threatened to curtail production to raise oil prices essentially so that is obviously something that would have to be looking for. higher demand season is coming in, you know, coming in the u.s. and in europe. charles: right. >> gasoline is always priced higher in the summer because it contains less butane. charles: yeah. >> i wouldn't rule out another spike this summer. >> i mean i, just hard not to believe that we, will have a big spike. energy is best performing second tore. people are piling in there. once that thing takes office it will be intriguing. twitter space yesterday, i missed it, i know you had a chart of government debt. what is intriguing to me at some point government debt, all of this spending and including, moneys that were promised where
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do they get it from and the notion maybe they start to raid the coffers of these oil companies? we know talk of windfall profits tax. we know it won't happen with republicans in congress. how long at some point they actually start to confiscate profits from these oil companies? >> you know it wouldn't surprise me at all. unfunded entitlement are more than twice as large as the official national debt and the problem is growing. we're already seeing countries in eu, and the uk for example, enact windfall taxes on oil companies. between the uk and the eu, windfall taxes. shell expects 2.5 billion hits. you got bp, you have got ecuador and, all saying that they are, thinking about divesting from their north sea assets that in turn will hit production. charles: it is nuts.
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>> that very well could happen in the united states. charles: i'm running out, i got less than 30 seconds but you got, it has been a long time, give me, what is the favorite oil play right now, your favorite oil stock? >> all right. so i still think oil service companies will continue to do well. so we really like slb, schlumberger. i like pr, permian resources debuted september after a merger f you prefer etf, one i like drill. drll. charles: i can't forget that one, drill, baby drill. tracy, thank you. coming up kenny polcari has generational ideas, generational. even eight-year-olds will make money from this. get ready at 2:40. first double line capital jeffrey gundlach explain his webcast that made so much news it is still reverberating from wall street. you get a chance to hear from the man himself. he is next.
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here is the thing i can't wait to ask him about recession. why isn't he not investing in america. why there are other more attractive places. we'll be right back. ♪. i'm a vegas hotel. i know what you're thinking - it's cool, i don't want anything too serious either. just a fun, spontaneous thing. i'm looking for someone who will let loose. dress up a little. see a show. order the steak and the lobster. some people say i'm excessive, but who cares. i'm just looking for a saturday to remember, and a sunday by the pool.
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♪. charles: marvin gaye made a version of that song, it was appropriate. headline driven week, right? no one made more or bigger headlines than my next guest, jeff gundlach, known as the bond king, released biggest webcast for the year. just anticipated markets. by the way subtitle, what's going on? double line ceo, jeff gundlach. thanks for joining. >> charles, good to be with you again. charles: before we dive into all the news you made say thank you for being part of the double line roundtable prime. i want to invite everyone watching right now go to your site, listen to all three parts. by the way i know you guys are
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boasting the best picks, my pick is through the roof. get that thing up. go to double we got the promo. cpi was in line. we have four fed speakers, you made a point, maybe the thing that rose to the top of everything you had to say, listen to the bond market rather than the fed when it comes to rates. why? >> well all you have to do is look at chart of fed funds rate overlaid on top of two year treasury yield. going back nearly 25 years every single fed move has been presaged by an earlier move in the two year treasury. just think about a year ago, two year treasury was 1 1/2 around the super bowl last year and the fed was dragging their feet on raising rates. lo and behold they had to do four 75s in a row to catch up with the two year. the two-year yield is falling. the two-year-year-old is below the fed funds rate.
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right now the two-year treasury at 4.13, the high-end of the fed funds rate is 4.50. so i think if the, if the two-year treasury drops below 4% and could happen any day now with the way it is moving, moved already 30 basis points year-to-date. we're already 3/4 of the way to that sort of below 4%, i think you will see a radical shift in fed rhetoric because the two-year treasury is always, people should look at the overlay chart. i have it on the webcast up on, just markets webcast. it is remarkable how you don't really need the fed and their 800 phd economists. all you need is a bloomberg terminal or a screen and look at the two-year treasury. plus there are some recession indicators that are now flagging. the leading economic indicators is always very important. it is very negative. it is more negative on a three-month annualized basis
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than year-over-year. it is negative 7.3 annualized. you have got money supply growth, m-2 is non-existent over the past 12 months. orders psmis are tanking. housing is very slow. the fed needs to get in line with the bond market. >> referenced all the phds. they have more phds than any government agency combined, right? they have all of this brain power. they see what you see obviously. they see what other people see obviously. so, what i'm concerned about then is maybe this notion of credibility. maybe this notion of ego, right? jay powell to me seems like he is trying to please the purists. wants to carve out the place in the financial hall of fame. it will be cost of excessive main street suffering. this is my main concern with the fed right now, jeff. >> i will give powell some credit. i think his framework is, if you
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have inflation that really takes hold, the ultimate consequence of elevated inflation expectations leading to intractable problem might be worse than a moderate recession and i think that is his framework he is thinking of but, yes, raising the interest rates is going to cause pain. he said so but, you know, he wants, he doesn't want the long-term inflation problem. i think, i really think he should stop worrying so much about the inflation problem at this point though. charles: right. >> because, inflation is coming down. it is going to come down further for sure in the next few months. was at 9.1. now at 6 1/2. i think it is going down maybe into the high 3s by the middle of this year. the question really what happens beyond that. charles: picking up speed to the downside. to all those anecdotal point that you just made, they all suggest it will start to come down very, very quick. so i'm listening to the webcast.
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new acronym popped in my head, i'm not sure if you meant to do it, abus, anything but united states, anything but the u.s. so what is up with abus? what is wrong with the good old usa when it comes to investing right now? >> i think the dollar is going down. it already started. the dollar index, dxy was up 116 several months ago. now it is below 103 i think. i haven't checked it in the last couple hours. basically the fed will be incrementally easier than other central banks just as they were incrementally tougher during 2022. that is why the dollar went up quite a lot for the first several months of the year but now they're overtightened i think, they will be easing. the dollar will go down. that creates a tailwind for dollar based investors in foreign markets. the u.s. market outperformed by a humongous amount over the past 10 years prior to 2022.
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and, became very overvalued versus its own historical valuation and very overvalued like dr. schillers ratio double the valuation of emerging markets for example. charles: with emerging markets, you buy maybe a etf? are there parts of the world, for instance, with china with reopening that might exceed the general growth of emerging markets? >> i really just like a broad basket of emerging markets. typically i don't like china because as a u.s. investor the tensions between the u.s. and china keep escalating. i worry if something really goes bad you might not be able to get your money out. so i worry about that but i do think china, the reopening will be incrementally positive. so for the short term i would not be afraid of china but i think south america, i think india, and southeast asia primarily though. india is my number one pick long
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term. charles: question. >> i think demographically india is exactly where china was 35 years ago. we've seen what happened to the relative economy of china versus the united states. i think india will be in that same position. they have fantastic demographics. so i would buy that one and hold on to it. i wouldn't even open my statement for five years lest you get fear if you recall it -- this investment for your grandchildren's college education. charles: i love that you said that. india the largest democracy, a young nation. it is on the upswing. the other area you made really big news you know a lot of folks have given up on the 60/40 portfolio, 60% stocks, 40% bonds. it was the gold standard for years particularly in retirement accounts. you say no, go with the 40/60 portfolio now? >> yes. one year ago stocks were massively overvalued versus historical valuations to, cheap to bonds unbelievably, cheap to
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the 10-year treasury. it was down to one%. thanks to interest rates going up and fed raising interest rates 425 basis points and credit spread on high yield bonds, corporate bonds, emerging market bonds, asset backed securities all widening out, bonds are very cheap to stocks. charles: all right. >> you have tremendous income now available from a mix of bonds that say, maybe pretty easy without a high-risk context to get 7 or 8%. from a mix of treasury bonds to some of this credit has gone up so much in yield. thanks to the fact that treasury yields rose, you have profit potential on the treasury market. it is already happened unfortunately to a certain extent. 10-year treasury yield is down 70 basis points from its peak. even the two-year treasury yield is down 60 basis points from where it was a few months ago. >> yeah. >> taunting the fed with their hawkish rhetoric but the bond mix is really attractive. one thing, charles, people have
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to understand about bonds it is really important what your price cost is on bonds. one year ago a bond portfolio would be a price above 100. you get paid back at maturity at 100 cents on the dollar. so you don't have any real enduring profit potential from a bond portfolio purchased at 100 cents. bond portfolios are down in 80s or 70s. it is very easy for bonds priced at 75 to go up to 85 or 95. that sounds like profit potential from the stock market. that is a good case. you have four times flow and less downside. bonds are really cheap compared to stocks although less so now that they have started to turn over. charles: yields are coming down pretty quickly. jeff, hold right there. we'll be back with more from you. take a quick break. i want to ask you, more thoughts about the recession and other issues going on in the united states. we'll be right back.
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of ♪. charles: welcome back we're here with double line cio, ceo, jeff gundlach. jeff i want to switch gears to commodities. where does it fit with the new age, new world, transition from ultra-aggressive fed to maybe one that has to blink at some point? where is the notion the commodity supercycle still out there? >> i think so, particularly because i believe there is a lot of downside room on the dollar. when it comes to come. s, i look at the bloomberg commodity index and it has been living below its 200-day moving average a while after going up quite substantially in the first few months of 2022 and i have not involved really in commodities other than gold at this point which i also think will do well when dollar goes down. with the economy weakening, it is difficult for commodities to really get going on the upside.
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i really think you need easier monetary policy for that to happen. i would wait for the ecom to cross above the 200-day moving average, stay there for a week, something like that. then i think you might see another leg up in dollar as commodities decline. i'm broader on the commodity complex. look at wti which is really important commodity. that has been going, been hanging out there at about 80 for quite some time. i going to see that start to move on the upside as well. charles: picks up gold for a minute. the chart is acting great. it is phenomenal. maybe not the ecb, but all the other global central banks bought as much gold as possible. is there something what is going on that is sparking this particular move? >> i think just think it is global uncertainty. also the dollar going down again. the dollar has been really important relative to the gold price. in most currencies last year
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gold did quite well because it was pretty stable. charles: right. >> it was up 2% in dollar terms but the dollar index was up a lot. so in foreign currencies did pretty well in gold. i just think that certain mistrust of the geopolitical situation will likely also be a tailwind for gold in addition to easier fed policy and declining dollar. charles: jeff, you have got a presence outside of the financial arena. from time to time you comment on issues outside of the markets. late last year, you made a post, a twitter post, president biden, please get tough on fentanyl now. i know you have a blue-collar background. i feel you are more grounded than other wall street titans with lack of a better term with respect to where the country is headed now. what are your thought about that? >> i find it appalling we wring our hands over tragedies that occur because there are shootings of six or eight or 15
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people that is horrible, gets a lot of play in the mainstream media but people are dying of fentanyl by very large numbers every single day. i don't know if it is 200 a day or 300 but somewhere in that range, per day. and we know that it is coming through mexico, the mexican border. we know it is coming out of china. yet we don't do anything about it. i just find, i have to scratch my head and ask the question, why are we allowing all of these deaths due specifically to the fentanyl? of course they make it look like candy to make it more appealing to children. why don't we stop isn't the only answer to that question that i can come up with is because we don't want to. that is an appalling answer because we're, we're allowing all of these deaths. covid deaths that was a big tragedy, a lot of those were comorbidity. a lot of deaths accelerated.
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people dying, of cancer, covid did them in. this is 100% due to illegal activity with highly toxic substance coming in. i'm sure there is enough fentanyl in the united states to kill all of us five times over. police videos, get near trunk of a car it has fentanyl in it, they have a e pen to bring them back from od. i wish we really cared about very substantial problems instead of focusing always on multitrillion dollar, you know, spending bills that nobody reads. just had another one of those floated up. charles: i want to say, when someone of your level putting, you know, using your platform and your voice will help because everyone in america is asking the same question. we've run out of time, jeff. i do also want to point out you began the webcast acknowledging you had a real tough year last year. i think that humility is so important for everyone watching.
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the market will humble you from time to time. to hear someone like you hey, it was tough. it was tough for me. let's regroup and make it back, it means a lot. it means a lot you did the show. thank you very much. >> thank you, charles. it was a tough year for everybody. it turned into a dumpster fire in the middle of the year. thankfully we got out of the the disasterous period. real rates are not rising. i think we're less risky for assets. that is why we had a rally. charles: the bond king, folks. a lot of charts are looking phenomenal. gold breaking out. wti turning around, bitcoin, bitcoin is acting like, look at that, that is a monster move. what the heck is going on? we have tex extraordinaire david settle with us. we'll look at generational opportunity. you're looking at them. you know them but will you pull the trigger? because kenny polcari is
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♪. charles: think about history for a moment, right? very few events in history had the same impact across different generations. i think you have to look at 9/11 affected at least four generations but my next guest says this market rout, it is an opportunity for everyone. joining me slatestone wealth chief market strategist kenny polcari. reading your note. got me to think, generational opportunities for generations this one is pretty huge because it is going to help everyone, even the 8-year-olds out there, if i'm reading you right. you're saying selloff in megacap names, this is it, pounce on these bad boys? >> listen i think there are some absolutely you have to look at right? these are names we know. apple, amazon. these stocks are trading at levels we haven't seen in years. they provide an opportunity, right, they change the world,
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continue to change the world. i think you have to look at other sectors. look what happened to the semiconductor sector. look what happened to the cybersecurity sector. after just what happened two days ago at the faa about the age of our computers we use to run the airlines in this country and airspace in this country. i think there is huge opportunities across those sectors. some of those sectors have gotten so absolutely beaten up last year i think they provide generational opportunities. charles: now today the market was meandering after that number. face it, everyone thought it would be a slight beat. the market really rallied even yesterday into the close. headline comes across. market dipped, up a little bit. all of sudden we start to see folks in this fed camp get a little softer at least in my mind, right? harker, bullard, who is not a voting member but obviously carries a lot of sway, where are you with respect to what you think the fed will do? will they blink, while they pause, will they cut-rates or
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stay the course? >> i don't think they will blink and i don't think they're pausing until may. i think three 25 basis-point hikes coming and when the pause comes, it comes in may. i don't think they pivot at all in 2023. jay powell made that very clear. all the other six or seven voices we heard early in the week, rates had to be better than 5%ed had to hold them longer than maybe the market expected, that is what i think they tell you what is going to happen. my fear is, if they pivot too soon, pause too soon, not pivot but pause, see as summer comes, inflation start to tick up again, that i think is the fear. that is what happened back in the 80s. it caused complete disaster. you and i both know that. he tries to prevent that from happening. he makes sure that doesn't happen until he really knocks it down. 3% out of inflation was the
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fluff. i think the next 4%, that is the meat and potatoes, right? that is where it will get tough to kill inflation. i think he will remain aggressive. charles: how do you hopscotch around all of this? they go three times, 25 basis points. they stop. they reignite and go again. do you just stick with the ideas? we started this segment with, keep buying them, keep buying looking at long-term horizon? jeff gundlach said buy india, put in lockbox, don't look five years. you like that kind of approach? >> it is so funny, right? i agree with jeff. i stay completely away from china. there is way too much risk. charles: ideas you like kenny the most, ideas you like the most do you buy them right now and not really worry about the all the gyrations we're maybe facing this year with respect to the fed? >> so i think you continue to buy them, right? you don't take, you don't take all the money one day decide to buy it. you get they are it in over
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time. you continue to do that. the money you will put away, you will watch every month, maybe every couple months, build up a cash portion, wait for angst to subside. tough go back in. there have to be names. i am at the moment, stuff that people need. heal care, consumer staples, energy, utilities i think things very much a core. you have to include some of the names gotten so beaten up. the semiconductors, right? apple, amazon, tesla. look at that, trading at $104 a couple days ago. it is trading 132 now. i don't think tesla is going away at all. i think there is opportunity. charles: kenny, why we have you on the show. you're one of the best, my man. a straight-shooter and which understand what you say too. talk to you real soon. my take why the fed i think is really going too far, right? there are certain dangers i see lurking around the corner that will erase all the benefits they think they're bringing to the table. first bitcoin breaking out, making a hell of a turn, gold
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breaking out. i have some compelling charts for you. these are trades you may be looking at now. we'll go to chart school with our next guest. we'll be right back. ♪. at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will work with you on a comprehensive wealth plan across your full financial picture. a plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. this is the planning effect. - [announcer] payroll takes too long. at least it used to. now, there's roll, the app that makes payroll as easy as sending a text. you. you're slinging tacos and you've got a minute between orders to handle payroll.
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♪. charles: all right, welcome to chart school, folks. with me market scholars sew founder. david, out the gate, we love your work. a lot of analogs, you write 2007, 2008, how we sort of following to a t but all of sudden, this is that last, 2007, 2008, feels like we're making momentum. can we break this and if we do how much upside can there be? >> this 4,000 level is very, very important resistance level. one thing you need from this year, 2008, by this time we had already broken the 200 week moving average, that we were still actually moving up away from this year and we're moving right into this really important technical level, with
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incidentally the smallest range today on the s&p 500 on an cpi release day that we've had for almost a year. charles: right. >> it would have been a little better if we broken through 4,000 with a large range a lot of volume, to feel good about the breakout, going into the resistance with smaller range, not as much volume, we need some more follow through to break through f we do, we can break the narrative, and get going back to the upside. charles: we'll see what happens in the last hour of trading. i will ask you about bitcoin, i'm not sure if you follow it closely but as a technician, it found support right in the throes of that ftx scandal, everyone was talking 10,000. look at the candlesticks. all the candles are positive. feels 18,500 could be a breakout. looking at the chart what are you seeing there? >> 18,500 was really strong support levels you can see back
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in early november on your chart, that it broke through to the downside after, after really sitting on it for weeks and weeks and multiple months, it finally broke through. now it is rallying up, trying to break out. along with risk appetite engaging, bitcoin happens to be on the scale of risk appetite along higher end, that end of risk appetite that the fed is actually trying to clear out of the system. charles: right. >> so if it continues to break out like this you might actually see the fed be a little more hawkish with the idea that risk appetite may be coming back a little bit more than they really want it to. charles: i hate the notion that the federal reserve gets to determine what is a good investment and not a bad investment. to prove a point, they make sure they get rid of a million jobs. i have 30 seconds this is the chart you like. i brought this up earlier in the week. new highs, new lows. it might look tiny infinitesimal. series of new highs above new lows. there were 2400 new lows.
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10 seconds when does this become a clear buy signal? >> getting above that positive 100 which it has, right? this is the first time more than a year we've gotten above positive 100. that is a good sign, moving average, that blue line itself crosses above zero, we feel good about the breath. charles: we're real close. real close. david, one of the best. thank you very much. appreciate it. >> thanks for having me on,th charles. atare ours too. and our financial planning tools can help you reach them. that's the value of ownership.
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charles: all right, i know jay powell and company, they've got everyone shook, right, after the harshest start to a rate cycle ever. the pace, though, speaks at just how badly they botched inflation in the first place and the greatest risk to the economy and the stock market and that's the fed going too far. we have been promised no pauses and no cuts, but these trends we're seeing would suggest otherwise. take a look at this, core cpi down three months in a row, so i want to go back to what was said, just make sure you are buying things that you really, really like. you can be nimble or you can buy great companies and just ride out, but don't skip out on the greatest money-making machine ever. right, liz? liz: charles, you could also be in the meme stocks. caravan that was moseying around $5 and change, and then the last 40 minutes o


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