val dine's day presents from jackie. jackie: i am so busy at christmas i don't drop things off but van tines is my day. brian: can save $50 on average, shopping leaving their kids at home. 44% of their parents claim they have to bribe their kids to behave while shopping. kids in the grocery store are like the develop velociraptors. one comes up from front of you and two from the side. jackie: always asking for things? brian: always. they gang up on you. you're shorthanded. leave the kids at home. taylor: you need the electric fence from "jurassic park." jackie: that does it for us. great to be with you always, taylor and brian. back with you here tomorrow. charles payne is next. charles: electric fence, valentine's day in the same conversation. thanks a lot guys. good afternoon, i'm charles payne. this is "making money."

barbarians are at the gate. wall street names they said they hated would never recover. here is the question. will pros move to jump into this? or old school style capitulation. here is the rub. if they think powell and company could slam the market again, that could be a fatal flaw, jay powell and the fed, they're in a pick k on board, lance roberts, david nicholas, peter thiel. calling president biden's first economic speech later on this hour. face it will be more of a political speech focused on the maga crowd and fear-mongering. i will ask house majority whip tom emmer for his solutions from republicans. rebecca walser, absolute proof stim mys sparked runaway inflation. my take on experts and their eagan suppose. and that and much more on

"making money." ♪. charles: here is dilemma for investors. you know the old saying don't fight the fed. there is another one, don't fight the trend. there is growing dilemma for jay powell and company. don't fight history, versus don't fight the data. yesterday the bank of canada raised rates 25 basis.and then they paused. yeah, the four-letter word, paused. to sort of assess whether they raised rates enough to get inflation back to their target. this is where they stand right now, inflation 6.3%. they paused at 4 1/2%. looks very much like our set yup. they of course added it is too early to think about rate cuts. no one was talking about that. but it does put powell in a pickle of sorts, right? you remember the jackson hole speech, august 26th, he said there would be effort to bring down inflation. he used words. it would bring some pain. here's the thing. here is jackson hole.

we got the pain. markets went down, bond yields went up but where are we right now? i tomenta know. the pain didn't last very long. meanwhile when you look at corporate america, we are in the beginning, middle of earnings season right now corporations are moving away from talk of inflation. remember that is the blue line. was always about inflation in the the second quarter of last year. now what is it all about? recession. look how much more they are talking about recession. recession is supposed to be the endgame, the promised land for the federal reserve right? they take their victory lap of sorts because weigh stop spending money. market there has been eruption of names left for dead, otherwise known as low quality. they have crushed it. wall street said stay away from the names. i hope you didn't. i want to bring in rio advisors lance roberts. i love your notes. they're always fantastic. i want to go over a few things. first it was about contrarian

trading. everyone is more or less bearish at least professionals. you listed some things that for reasons to be bearish. i don't think they pack the same punch. fed remaining aggressive? i'm not so sure. fed reducing liquidity. inflation is not a problem it used to be. earnings remain elevated that is true but they have come down a lot. the economy was slowing. i thought that was the endgame for all of these things. consumer running out of money. i give you that. mastercard said they have a lot more dry powder on the credit cards. maybe it is not really a lot to the bear argument anymore? >> look, the whole thing here, charles, from contrarian point, right, and this is the whole point of the article that we wrote, is that all these things are getting priced into the markets, right? we've been bearish for the last year. we've been talking about the fed and quantitative tightening which by the way they're not stopping qt, right? they're not going to reduce interest rates right now. so monetary policy is tighter. that is still a valid argument

but this is all getting priced into the market. you're right earnings have come down. they have probably not come down enough yet to adjust for slower economy. but they have come down. the markets are trying to price it in. a lot of companies are reporting earnings. they're talking about pretty poor guidance going forward. stocks are trading off of that. suggesting markets priced some of this stuff is in. i think the trade here, at least for right now is higher because all of these portfolio managers that were short last year playing a little bit of catch up this year. charles: they will have to refreshen their cheat sheet so to speak. focus on the inflation part of this because that has come down a lot. this suggests market trade pes with higher ratio. typical p-e ratio average stock trades seven times earnings. get inplaying down to 3 to 5% that is a big difference. 18 times. a lot of professionals come on this show, still sort of

quibbling how expensive the market is but if inflation goes down could that argue or sort of support a higher market at least higher p-es? >> if all things were equal i would agree with you. if we go back in history, look at inflation, where things were trading back then i would agree with the point. the one difference this time we pay attention to corporate profit margins are trading at record levels still. because of all that money we put into the economy after we laid off everybody, right, we had the big unemployment return, big profit margins, supported by high inflation. with inflation coming down, that will bring these profit margins down. that is a bit of a difference this time. yes, we can certainly trade with a higher valuation with lower inflation but i think we still might have work to do on the profit margin side. microsoft was a good example of that this week when they reported earnings. charles: i have got a minute to go, a little less. in your note you also say to add to sectors or positions performing with or outperforming the broader market.

does that suggest people should resist the notion of bottom-fishing? >> depends on the company. you know, again microsoft is a great example of this. what we're looking for right now, companies that report earnings, missed estimates, maybe had poor guidance and stock goes up or holds its own. microsoft was a good example of this week. we actually added to microsoft this morning because they reported earnings, outlook was poor from the cfo, the the stock rose. that suggested bad news was already priced in. a lot of companies are at the bottom, probably deserve to be at the bottom they're not fundamentally good companies but if you're starting to improvement with good quality companies with good earnings, probably the time to start nibbling. charles: lance, appreciate it. you write some of the best work. speak to you soon. bring in nicholas wealth management david nicholas. let's start with the stock of the day. i know you took profits on tesla for tax loss harvesting?

would you buy it back here. >> charles, i've always been a big tesla bull. we have a hold on tesla right now. because i'm not hopeful on the stock. we want to be in it. we do own it in our large cap portfolio. i want a pullback. we may not see it f i get a 10, 20-dollar pull back on the stock we're in it all day both hands. i love it hire. i like the stock long term. i wouldn't chase this is 50% off the lows. 168 gets you to a 23% retracement level. if we get to that point i will feel a lot better. charles: talk with a few names on your watch list, buy, sell, hold, starting with google or alphabet? >> i think google is one of the most undervalued tech stocks. layoffs are a big deal. that will help bottom line. we hate to see it but i think they continue to have margin growth over the next two years. those companies will win if you can grow your margins in this environment when margins are coming down i think the market will reward that. so we love a nam like google,

charles. $98 a share under 100, you can pick it up all day. that is a good price for the stock. charles: lyb. chemical name, i don't i heard you talk about this. buy sell or hold? >> we're a buy. 11 times forward. materials in almost every product we use. i think consumer discretionary right now will outperform consumer staples. that will help company like lyb because they are in the manufacturing of plastics materials,. charles: i think lyondell, the train company. nvidia, you're not a buyer of nvidia, are you? >> we're a hold. similar thing. 40% roughly move off the bottom, charles. i like the semis here. i think that is telling for the economy. when you have semis performing well only happens in a period where economy and markets are in strong shape. i am a buyer. i just don't like chasing these big 40% moves up. we will be buyers on pullback.

charles: isn't that the prom though, for last six months professionals said wait, wait particularly with high beta names you move, or blink they are up, 40, 50%. some went up 100%. the spydrs does that mean the broad market is a buy yet. >> so this is where i saw let's talk in two weeks, charles. we have the fed meeting coming up in two weeks. i know a lot of this is priced in already but the fed can have a way to damage this run. so i agree with you, but i do think we're getting toppy on the s&p. 4100 for me is the top level for the s&p. i would be smoked if we break above that and stay. this is why we are short-term bearish on the indexes, mainly s&p. i just don't think we'll get above that level to stay there, charles. i think we will have good buying opportunities post fed meeting next week or so. charles: you're being nuanced i understand. if we close above 4100 we could be off to the races. what about the other side. you don't think we retest any

lows, do you? >> not this year, charles. the low is in. i laugh when i hear we're going to head back down to the 3300 level. i just don't see it. i think we're seeing, we're making new higher lows. that is positive momentum for the market. i think make 3800. if we hit 3800 i'm taking everything i have, we're diving in at 3800 on s&p, charles. charles: i love you're always specific with this stuff, dade. bring you back real soon maybe after the fed meeting so we can calf up. thank you, my man. >> thanks, charles. charles: bring in academy security head of macro head of strategy, peter thir. welcome to the show. i want to bring up a piece you wrote, zerohedge. talking about the past, great darkness this is a great quote you put in there. all historians know the past is a great darkness and it is filled with echoes. that was "the handmaid's tale" the author, margaret at wood. how does this apply to the federal reserve? >> i want to apply the view

they're chasing their own demons. eccles building headquarters they make the decisions i thought that was pretty interesting. reality data is already tricky. we're trying to figure out what to do with data, is it good or strong? i think they're dealing with two past demons. way past time frame of when volcker dealt with inflation. more recently this group did miss ininflation. transitory, transitory. it is hard to make good decisions when you make bad decisions. charles: this scares the hell out of me, the federal reserve with army of ph-ds are being driven by emotions, emotions of missing it you can see powell, you felt a lot of q&as where he is like i will be paul volcker. he was slammed in the senate last year. the congressman, senator from alabama, slammed him. you're no paul volcker. i remember paul volcker. you're no paul volcker and i feel like he is trying too hard.

now wedded to this thing he will not pause but they may make him pause, no? >> i'm concerned. he should have paused two or three meetings ago. giving time, 25, 50, we're finally talking about a 25 and potential pause but even then i think he will be more hawkish. reality q4 had inflation on the core cpi an allized 3.2%. that is not horrible. that was for a full quarter with housing overstated because they're using bad calculations. charles: right. >> i think they're supposed to be hey, let's not push it. charles: they believe once the housing data catches up to where it really is they will find themself in a real predictment. fourth quarter gdp beat top line but driven by inventories. consumer spending was a big piece. are we seeing enough weakness in the consumer for the fed to pay attention? >> i think we are. we're seeing without inflation that number would have been

worse. i really focus on the inventory. we had a staggering inventory build. some of that was expected after covid. i think companies misread the consumer. they built this inventory. if i go back to this holiday season you could get almost every brand on sale, good brands. auto dealers are flogging new cars. rebates available. inventory built up way too much that is a problem. it is bizarre to me positive inventory counts as good in the data. to me it should be a negative as you see spending decline. charles: funny tidbit i read, vegas strip gave 2.9 billion in freebies to get gamblers out there. everyone now is new dividends. that is the big thing. chevron announces 75 billion in buybacks and dividends. you posted something this week. you said be careful on these dividend stocks. what does that mean? >> i think people get carried away with dividend stocks. one etf i think for example, promises 7% dividend. if it doesn't earn its way out of it they reduce your capital.

i think dividends are important but they're not the whole story. always total return for me. think about total return. i do like cable. i like the telecom sector which are dividend paying but i like them for reasons not just the dividend. charles: chevron move you like that move? >> i like it. commodities are a great space. i like it. i like the industry. i don't care the mix of dividend or not. it is nice that attract as pool of buyers might not otherwise be there. it is about the total return potential, not just the dividend. charles: a lot of time high yields because the stock came down a lot. >> why we brought up that example. lehman and apple. lehman was the high yielder. apple was one generated all the returns. charles: absolutely. peter, been a fan a long time. appreciate it. >> thanks for having me. charles: of course there are some ideas, trends and ideas i can't talk about a lot. i write every single night and morning. read it, my daily commentary. go to wstreet.com. i know you will like it. my next guest says he expects market strength to continue in the coming months.

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serious allergic reactions may occur. watch me. ♪. charles: so the market acting pretty good. you want to feel good about this i tell you, most encouraging thing, one of them the strength is inside of the the internals right? my next guest says expressed well with the s&p equal weight etf. oppenheimer technical analysis, ari wald. the it has gone through the 50-day moving average. it is turning higher. what does it mean when you say it is a reflex of the internals? >> what it does it de-emphasizes megacap stocks that dominate cap weighted s&p 500. it puts equal weight on all 500 stocks in the index. so it's a great gauge of internal breadth with the market

of stocks are doing and what we're seeing is that the market of stocks, internal breadth is not only flirting with the trend line and the 200-day moving average but even, breakout level. the equal weighted etf we're showing here, breaking above its q4 high. making a higher high. that is indicating the breadth of the market is improving. what was weakness in the select megacaps stock masked that strength. we think it supports additional market gains over the accompanying months. charles: we have a looks like a five or six year chart. it's been a little bit higher. do you subscribe to the notion of double tops? could that be the next major test for this? if we get through it could we say we're off to the races? >> i think we're already off to the races. the prior highs are going to be formidable resistance. we'll see how the market reacts to that. is it going to be a double top or a breakout?

we'll play that game once we get there. you will have me back. charles: i will have you back. by the way i get giddy. one of my problems as a trader when i do trade is that when we're getting close to a breakout i start to assume the breakout. of course we've seen if you assume the breakout there you got crushed. if you assumed it there you got crushed. if you assumed it there you got crushed. we're trying to break out right now. at what point do we say okay the coast is clear for the s&p 500? >> i think the, what, i think now is that point. i think the difference between now and these prior tests of the downtrend is that breath is stronger than those prior occurrences. even stocks above the 200-day moving average. 58% now. only 43% when we first nailed fail in august. the semiconductors sock are breaking out. why is this a important proxy for the overall market. >> this is supporting the breakout thesis.

not only breadth broadening, right areas as well, semiconductor stocks, high bait tax risk-on cyclical industry made the higher low in december. now making a higher high. first it was industrials. then pockets of financials. now we're seeing it in semiconductors. it is broadening out in the right areas. again, that right leadership argues this is bull market environment that we're in. why we think we see higher prices. >> speaking of bull markets, is it too early to say bitcoin is in a bull market? your theory on on the breakout, we know bitcoin can move big. is it too early to start thinking 30,000? >> listen i always start with this, it is too volatile for me. it is difficult to keep losses small. for that reason i generally don't recommend it but if i were taking an objective view of the chart, looking at it as i would anyother chart, yes this crypto moved above its 200-day moving average for the first time in over a year which we view as an

indication of a trend that is reversing higher soft that breakout is intact above 20,000. there is additional support that comes in at 21 five. next resistance is around 25,000 at that point and then i think over longer term basis you could start talking about 30,000 which is where the cryptos started to break down last year. charles: right. ari, great, great stuff. always appreciate it. thank you so much, my friend. >> thanks, charles, take care. charles: all right, folks, coming up tech stocks, we saw a lot of layoffs and then saw the stocks rally on those layoffs. i will can kenny polcari what is going on. and his latest moves. he has fresh ideas. the white house is furious for chevron returning 75 billion to shareholders. isn't that their right? i will ask house majority whip tom emmer. republicans plan to limit the flagrant abuse of the strategic petroleum reserve. is it too late anyway? ♪

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♪. charles: so a few moments ago, in a few moments i'm sorry the nation will hear from president biden, he is deciding, decided to try public pressure and a lot of fear rather than negotiate with the new gop majority in the house on raising the u.s. debt ceiling. he says no unconditionally goes as is. my next guest says that's a huge mistake. joining me house majority whip, minnesota congressman tom emmer. congratulations by the way, congressman. well-deserved position here. i want to ask, what kind of compromise are republicans looking for? >> well, it is a little early to talk about compromise. we just want to have a discussion, charles.

the white house i think everybody in congress knows we have a pending debt ceiling issue we have to deal with. house republicans led by kevin mccarthy are here, ready, willing and able to start negotiating, not just on the debt ceiling itself but on real spending reforms going forward that will put this country in a better position to meet its obligations for the next generation and generations to come. charles: right. this will be the 79th time the debt ceiling has been raised since 1960. you had 78 opportunities to do it in the past. you have to forgive me and people watching the show if they're a little bit cynical about all of this? larger issues, medicaid, medicare, social security, are propping up. they are issues that don't go away. why can't they be sincerely discussed, maybe some solution, some elegant solutions apply? >> the new majority in the house agrees with you, charles, agrees with americans. you have a government takes in a

dollar, for every dollar we take in we're spending $1.29. that is not sustainable. house republicans under leadership under kevin mccarthy are ready, willing able to do negotiations necessary. the president on the other hand said there will be absolutely no negotiations. i think he will do a speech which is a huge mistake for him to dying in his heels on this issue. in order to do this you have to be reasonable. the reasonable thing to do is sit down to have a discussion. you have got to be responsible. house republicans are ready, charles. i think eventually president will understand you're going to have to sit down to talk with us because it is not about republicans and democrats. charles: right. >> this this is about the future of this great nation. charles: there are always public relations. white house seems focused on winning that more than anything else. they say republicans are always reluctant when it comes to the debt ceiling to make modifications when there is republican in office. they become more trans sy gent

when democrat is. we have a chart on the screen shows major differences, both parties are that way but more with republicans. how do you counter this is typical republican stuff? >> try us. the mr. president. phone is ringing. america is calling. time for you to pick up the phone. house republicans are ready to pick up the call. we're going be to responsible, sensible, reasonable to get the thing done with important, necessary spending reforms that will put this country on a better track, a sustainable track for the next generation and generations to come. charles: meanwhile the house expected to pass a bill tomorrow that limits oil reserve withdrawal from the strategic petroleum reserve. which by the way is at its lowest level since april of 1984. the white house saying it is dead on arrival. what are they missing here? the. >> they're missing how the markets work, charles. this is called the strategic petroleum reserve responsibility. this is the first step of

responsible behavior by house republicans doing work to restore american energy independence. which by the way directly influencing inflation in this country. it is not just gas prices. it is everything about our standard of living and cost of living in this country, charles. essentially what this administration has done is rather than allow for new production, rather than for allow for competition in the marketplace to work, they have been draining our emergency supply and selling it to people like china. charles: right. >> it is down 40%, you point out 1984. 40% of it is depleted. they don't have any plan to refill it. that is what this bill is all about. again the first step in restoring american energy independence which frankly the biden administration has destroyed. charles: congressman, again, congratulations. thank you so much, appreciate it. >> thank you, charles. >> folks, i will bring in walser wealth management president, rebecca walser. part of this, president biden part of this oil story too he keeps saying oil companies are

greedy. they don't care about the american public. the white house has leaped on this morning's story of chevron. they will buy back $75 billion of their own stock. buybacks and dividends. should the white house be in the business of telling private companies what they can do with the money that they actually earned? >> where is the congratulations to chevron for being able to refund 75 billion in dividends, raise, buy back, raise their difference dent to 1.51 a share. last i checked most 401(k)s and pensions invested in the fortune 500 companies in this country. this is the return to the middle class of dividends, stock buybacks, making the stock price go higher. it is not like this administration is helpful at all to american energy. they have done nothing but block and tackle every, you know, lease, every opportunity they have had, you know what they have done, charles.

so chevron knows what they have done as well. this is just so disingenuous. charles: one of the ironies this is supposed to be the president who helps unions. almost every union invests in the stock market. you can't have it both ways if you want to help unions you better help the american stock market. >> exactly. charles: president biden see as scapegoat, whole thing is scapegoat for runaway inflation. this is something came out yesterday. i want to get your thoughts on it, st. louis fed, fiscal stimulus added 2.6 percentage points in excess inflation. $2.9 trillion, that was a boondoggle. it put us in precariousization, where a we have to deal with runaway inflation and b a fed crushing other economy. >> you're so right, charles. we passed the inflation reduction act, massive give away to green energy, all kinds of things we knew, that monetary

policy went crazy getting tightened at federal reserve level, here congress passing something they call one thing the exact opposite this is exactly what the st. louis fed uncovered in their analysis. charles: rebecca, what are you doing, how are you helping investors navigate through all of this. >> it will be a tough year. a lot of your guests think we're past the worst of it. i would tell investors we're not because the global macroeconomics are once again going to determine what happens in 2023. obviously any war escalation would be a massive problem. i'm really interested how saudi arabia has methodically over the last 18 months made a strategic shift away from the united states towards russia, towards china. now with their announcement last week in davos about basically selling cute outside of the u.s. dollar since 1974. that would be the final nail in the coffin. we would have massive dollar problems after that. people need to embrace what happening. it could be two years. could be literally six months, it could be next week.

we don't know how fast this will go. once saudi arabia actually starts executing trades outside of the u.s. dollar we have a massive issue on our hands. we'll have to deal with it. so we need to be prepared. that is commodity based. that would definitely be gold. we had the largest reserves of gold move from the west to the east, 388 tons in q3. we saw no price inflections from that charles. we do know there is price manipulation in the gold market. this is the year they get rectified. charles: i think we taking the reserve currency for granted. that started with the petrodollar. they unwind that, we learn right away when it means when you don't have the world's currency. rebecca, thank you so much. >> thank you, charles. charles: coming up market gauge managing director michelle schneider makes a case for old school industrials, stocks like ge. first my next guest says aiming his sights beating the markets through the semiconductor space. this will be the second guest that talked about this. kenny polcari will give you

specific ideas. get ready. he is next. ♪. young lady who was, you know, mid 30s, couple of kids, recently went through a divorce. she had a lot of questions when she came in. i watched my mother go through being a single mom. at the end of the day, my mom raised three children, including myself. and so once the client knew that she was heard. we were able to help her move forward. your client won't care how much you know until they know how much you care. cole hauser is an award winning actor who has starred in good will hunting too fast, too furious and the current hit show yellowstone. beyond his impressive career,

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♪. charles: so every thursday american association of individual investors update their retail sentiment. you can see, i mean this thing is really amazing because it shot up 31% bullish which is still low. in the last week it has come down again, bearishness has gone up again and it is really amazing to me. bullishness was gaining traction but that is not the way it is. people say this survey is really a contrarian survey. i'm not so sure. i want to bring in right now slatestone wealth, their chief market strategist, kenny polcari. despite this bearishness which is 36% far more than

bullishness, you say in real life despite the sentiment retail investor have a high appetite for the market right now, right? >> i think there is appetite by retail investors. i think they're becoming much smarter how they invest, strategies which they invest. i don't think people are running nearly as scared they used to run years ago when the market sold off. i think they're much smarter today. therefore there is an appetite. charles: talk about earnings season. we're starting to get deep into it now. it has been a little worse than expected yet these stocks, individual stocks for the most part are holding up. what is the message here? >> i think the message is, i'm a little bit worried about it. while they're holding up, i do think that there is going to be a little bit more downside pressure. one way or the other, the message, you saw it yesterday in microsoft. they took it higher on tuesday. they tried to crush it yesterday. they took it right back up. when you look at big, quality names like microsoft is a big quality name that is where

investors are not going to run away. they will not get scared. i talked about yesterday with liz claman how i thought it was overdone. and in fact it is, today is rallied nicely but i think the message is as long as you stick with the big quality names that have -- microsoft did not give a negative outlook at all in my opinion. i just thought quite honestly they did very well, right? they're cutting jobs, they beat the number, beating the stock up last year. now i think it is rebounding, i think investors long term investors are really starting to pay attention to some of those big quality names. charles: it is interesting when you say my company will make 51 billion, not 52 billion, maybe that is not the worst thing in the world when it is built in. >> exactly, $51 billion, the next three months. what am i missing? charles: gold, interesting thing, last year gold went down, gold was breaking out a little bit, but gold stocks not necessarily as much. we're starting to see them break out a little bit. this is newmont.

it looks like it has a lot of room to the upside. does this mean you think also gold will go to a new high? >> i think gold is going to be, i think gold will be somewhere 2100, 2200 by year-end. we're not that far away. 19. 1980 right? it is still january. i still think gold not only this year, even into next year i think gold continues to move higher. as a result i like mining names. newmont, fcx specifically and barrick gold are three names i like in the space. you see how they have all acted. they're up double digits this year. gold is up 7% this year. up 17% off november lows. charles: i have the newmont chart here. i love this chart. it looks really appetizing. what else do you like here, kenny. >> so i like defense names like raytheon and lockheed martin, right? those are names that i think i think aerospace and defense industry is also going to do well this year. i think there are real concerns out there, whether russia, ukraine, china, taiwan, the role

that we'll end up having to play. i don't think there will be massive cuts in defense spending. i think they will continue to spend in defense. the defense stocks will benefit. so i like both of those names, raytheon and lockheed martin. and then back to the semis. i'm hold on nvidia. it is up 34% this year. there are another names in the group still lagging a little guilt. qualcomm and intel are two names i like. charles: kenny, appreciate it. talk to you again soon. >> all right. charles: my take on experts and egos. don't let it trip up your portfolio. we'll tell you about earning money in names. no one has greater knowledge than michelle schneider. she is here with her buy, sell and hold is list right after this. ♪.

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charles: tenor of the market changing a little bit, right? we're starting to pick up steam late into the session. there are a lot of major indices, we pointed out in the show, major, major resistance

points. some are breaking out. maybe that sparks panic buying. i want to bring in mark get gauge managing director michelle schneider. you watch the russell. iwm. 190 is the key number for you. what happens if we close above there? >> 190 is the december high. this high has not been cleared in the s&p 500 yet. so that december high really stands looming large as resistance. so if we can get through that obviously i think we'll see some renewed buying. looking at the spy i would think take the spy from current levels up to 420, which is really our target for this year. that, iwm is key because we really need the small caps to participate in this rally. charles: if you hit your target this early in the year, what do you do? do you, i mean you got to go back to the drawing board, right? >> well, yes, if you hit the target, first of all, a target is just a target. charles: sure.

>> so it is obviously is based on a real technical point in the monthly chart, the 23 month moving average sits there. that is two year moving average. if we get through that obviously you have to reevaluate. always so much risk will you have at that point. yeah our targets are there because of a monthly moving average. we try to branch out a little bit in terms of time frame from the daily, to the weekly, to the monthly. that is about the broadest we're going at this point. charles: i got you. meantime sounds like you're being cautiously optimistic. maybe, is that the industrials, you like the industrials. i know yesterday you picked up some free port, ge, boeing. boeing looked really compelling. golly have they ever had two good news stories back-to-back? is this all about value right now? >> probably the big comeback of that stock. we haven't seen any crashes lately and because we're having travel coming back, boeing is getting an advantage of that.

i know it is down a little bit today. it is consolidating near a very high level. so if the market holds, even before the market, when it was dropping boeing was outperforming. we think it can continue to outperform as we get into the year. charles: five years ago i had four stocks i say you should never, never sell. boeing was one of them. because of the global dominance. they have one competitor around the world. air travel picking up like crazy. it just seems like a no-brainer if they get back on track to your point. i know you watch commodities closely. what do you make of crude, crude oil is going up, crude oil stocks maybe spinning their wheels a little bit, which is inverse of what happened last year. >> what is so interesting about the crude oil it is that, really doing so much better than say natural gas. last year it was all about the natural gas which is completely fallen out of bed. so what it is telling you, is that the crude oil demand is there, continuing to possibly rise because of china. and also because of our

strategic reserves being really super low right now. there is a supply concerns. but it hasn't really started to fly yet. so it is at a very critical point. if we can hold up here around 80, $85 a barrel, there is no reason why one spark plug could trigger, send that back up to 100, even 120. i still think it's a x-factor. i wouldn't say i'm overly bullish. we're long oil here with a very tight stop. charles: so the theme here, feels like you're playing close to the vest, so to speak. i have a minute to go. what are your big concerns right now? >> well, inflation, so we talked about oil as an x-factor. there are certain things that are given. i don't know if you guys noticed the food stocks today and soft commodities stocks. sugar, flying, coffee flying, wheat flying, soybeans starting to pick up a little bit. lumber went limit up this morning. so all of this is pointing to the fact that these commodities that have been under pressure are coming alive.

of course we're going to see that sometimes alongside of equities. but it always means what point do the food commodities in particular that can really wreak havoc keep going up which spurs inflation which of course then has a domino effect on everything. charles: it is interesting. we've seen the consume every staple stocks, a lot of those stocks come down. there was assumption not long ago they would be able to keep that pricing power as inflation went down, raw materials. maybe that is not the case. michelle, always enjoy your conversations. thank you very much. >> thank you. charles: see you soon. folks, my takeaway coming up. the experts, listen to them but don't follow their egos. i will explain when we come back ♪. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? ..

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charles: for all the hand wringing about the retail investor, the ego of the experts is a bigger issue. individual investors i talked about earlier have been spot on. they got bearish when the markets were down. even during bear market rallied you didn't see bullishness go crazy. when it was oversold use a bump in the bullishness. it shows you they are tempered and it is brilliant, experts have been so -- since i have been on wall street over 30

years, so wedded to their theories when the market moves against them, the proverbial fraud in boiling water, they are so stubborn. they will say things like the market has it wrong. don't care what you think of the market, ultimately it's the final arbiter of whether you are right or wrong and the cycle comes back. we are supposed to have the smartest people on wall street come on this show and i focus on people who do research and have real track records. when we bring them on, they do make the adjustments. so be careful of the zealots. you have more common sense than they do. liz: yes very. did you see this, bed, bath and beyond, resumed trading. it is down 18% after having been halted 9 and a half minutes ago.